Model choice for phylogeographic inference using a large set of models

Model‐based analyses are common in phylogeographic inference because they parameterize processes such as population division, gene flow and expansion that are of interest to biologists. Approximate Bayesian computation is a model‐based approach that can be customized to any empirical system and used to calculate the relative posterior probability of several models, provided that suitable models can be identified for comparison. The question of how to identify suitable models is explored using data from Plethodon idahoensis, a salamander that inhabits the North American inland northwest temperate rainforest. First, we conduct an ABC analysis using five models suggested by previous research, calculate the relative posterior probabilities and find that a simple model of population isolation has the best fit to the data (PP = 0.70). In contrast to this subjective choice of models to include in the analysis, we also specify models in a more objective manner by simulating prior distributions for 143 models that included panmixia, population isolation, change in effective population size, migration and range expansion. We then identify a smaller subset of models for comparison by generating an expectation of the highest posterior probability that a false model is likely to achieve due to chance and calculate the relative posterior probabilities of only those models that exceed this expected level. A model that parameterized divergence with population expansion and gene flow in one direction offered the best fit to the P. idahoensis data (in contrast to an isolation‐only model from the first analysis). Our investigation demonstrates that the determination of which models to include in ABC model choice experiments is a vital component of model‐based phylogeographic analysis.     

Identifying Pleistocene refugia in North American cold deserts using phylogeographic analyses and ecological niche modelling

Aim We analysed phylogeographic patterns and ecological niche models (ENMs) of the widespread velvet ant (Hymenoptera: Mutillidae) Sphaeorpthalma difficilis to understand the history of diversification in the Nearctic deserts and to identify areas that may have been cold‐desert refugia during the Pleistocene. These areas should be targeted for conservation because of their climatic stability throughout historical climate change events. Location North American arid regions. Methods The two internal transcribed spacer regions (ITS1 and ITS2) were sequenced and analysed using Bayesian techniques to uncover phylogeographic patterns of relatedness among S. difficilis populations. History of diversification was estimated using parsimony‐based and maximum likelihood character reconstructions. Molecular dating analyses were implemented in the program r8s and were calibrated with Dominican amber fossils. ENMs were developed based on current climate data and projected onto Pleistocene climate surfaces. Results The analyses suggest that S. difficilis had a complex history of Pleistocene range expansion and contraction that led to the formation of genetically distinct populations inhabiting distinct arid regions. ENMs and phylogeographic patterns indicate that several cold‐desert refugia existed in North America, particularly in the Colorado Plateau and parts of the Great Basin Desert. Main conclusions Analyses of S. difficilis are used to identify potential Pleistocene refugia in the North American cold deserts. Because these areas represent climatically stable locations, they are critical for the long‐term persistence of biodiversity. This research provides evidence that in addition to desert‐like conditions persisting through the ice age in parts of the Nearctic warm deserts, many areas maintained desert‐like characteristics in the regional cold deserts. Further work is needed to elucidate options for preserving biodiversity in these cold‐desert refugia.     

Multilocus phylogeography reveals nested endemism in a gecko across the monsoonal tropics of Australia

Multilocus phylogeography can uncover taxonomically unrecognized lineage diversity across complex biomes. The Australian monsoonal tropics include vast, ecologically intact savanna‐woodland plains interspersed with ancient sandstone uplands. Although recognized in general for its high species richness and endemism, the biodiversity of the region remains underexplored due to its remoteness. This is despite a high rate of ongoing species discovery, especially in wetter regions and for rock‐restricted taxa. To provide a baseline for ongoing comparative analyses, we tested for phylogeographic structure in an ecologically generalized and widespread taxon, the gecko Heteronotia binoei. We apply coalescent analyses to multilocus sequence data (mitochondrial DNA and eight nuclear DNA introns) from individuals sampled extensively and at fine scale across the region. The results demonstrate surprisingly deep and geographically nested lineage diversity. Several intra‐specific clades previously shown to be endemic to the region were themselves found to contain multiple, short‐range lineages. To infer landscapes with concentrations of unique phylogeographic diversity, we probabilistically estimate the ranges of lineages from point data and then, combining these estimates with the nDNA species tree, estimate phyloendemism across the region. Highest levels of phyloendemism occur in northern Top End, especially on islands, across the topographically complex Arnhem escarpment, and across the sandstone ranges of the western Gulf region. These results drive home that deep phylogeographic structure is prevalent in tropical low‐dispersal taxa, even ones that are ubiquitous across geography and habitats.     

Genotyping‐by‐sequencing and ecological niche modeling illuminate phylogeography,admixture, and Pleistocene range dynamics in quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides)

Populus tremuloides is the widest‐ranging tree species in North America and an ecologically important component of mesic forest ecosystems displaced by the Pleistocene glaciations. Using phylogeographic analyses of genome‐wide SNPs (34,796 SNPs, 183 individuals) and ecological niche modeling, we inferred population structure, ploidy levels, admixture, and Pleistocene range dynamics of P. tremuloides, and tested several historical biogeographical hypotheses. We found three genetic lineages located mainly in coastal–Cascades (cluster 1), east‐slope Cascades–Sierra Nevadas–Northern Rockies (cluster 2), and U.S. Rocky Mountains through southern Canadian (cluster 3) regions of the P. tremuloides range, with tree graph relationships of the form ((cluster 1, cluster 2), cluster 3). Populations consisted mainly of diploids (86%) but also small numbers of triploids (12%) and tetraploids (1%), and ploidy did not adversely affect our genetic inferences. The main vector of admixture was from cluster 3 into cluster 2, with the admixture zone trending northwest through the Rocky Mountains along a recognized phenotypic cline (Utah to Idaho). Clusters 1 and 2 provided strong support for the “stable‐edge hypothesis” that unglaciated southwestern populations persisted in situ since the last glaciation. By contrast, despite a lack of clinal genetic variation, cluster 3 exhibited “trailing‐edge” dynamics from niche suitability predictions signifying complete northward postglacial expansion. Results were also consistent with the “inland dispersal hypothesis” predicting postglacial assembly of Pacific Northwestern forest ecosystems, but rejected the hypothesis that Pacific‐coastal populations were colonized during outburst flooding from glacial Lake Missoula. Overall, congruent patterns between our phylogeographic and ecological niche modeling results and fossil pollen data demonstrate complex mixtures of stable‐edge, refugial locations, and postglacial expansion within P. tremuloides. These findings confirm and refine previous genetic studies, while strongly supporting a distinct Pacific‐coastal genetic lineage of quaking aspen.     

Phylogeographic concordance factors quantify phylogeographic congruence among co‐distributed species in the Sarracenia alata pitcher plant system

Comparative phylogeographic investigations have identified congruent phylogeographic breaks in co‐distributed species in nearly every region of the world. The qualitative assessments of phylogeographic patterns traditionally used to identify such breaks, however, are limited because they rely on identifying monophyletic groups across species and do not account for coalescent stochasticity. Only long‐standing phylogeographic breaks are likely to be obvious; many species could have had a concerted response to more recent landscape events, yet possess subtle signs of phylogeographic congruence because ancestral polymorphism has not completely sorted. Here, we introduce Phylogeographic Concordance Factors (PCFs), a novel method for quantifying phylogeographic congruence across species. We apply this method to the Sarracenia alata pitcher plant system, a carnivorous plant with a diverse array of commensal organisms. We explore whether a group of ecologically associated arthropods have co‐diversified with the host pitcher plant, and identify if there is a positive correlation between ecological interaction and PCFs. Results demonstrate that multiple arthropods share congruent phylogeographic breaks with S. alata, and provide evidence that the level of ecological association can be used to predict the degree of similarity in the phylogeographic pattern. This study outlines an approach for quantifying phylogeographic congruence, a central concept in biogeographic research.     

Phylogeography of the widespread African puff adder (Bitis arietans) reveals multiple Pleistocene refugia in southern Africa

Evidence from numerous Pan‐African savannah mammals indicates that open‐habitat refugia existed in Africa during the Pleistocene, isolated by expanding tropical forests during warm and humid interglacial periods. However, comparative data from other taxonomic groups are currently lacking. We present a phylogeographic investigation of the African puff adder (Bitis arietans), a snake that occurs in open‐habitat formations throughout sub‐Saharan Africa. Multiple parapatric mitochondrial clades occur across the current distribution of B. arietans, including a widespread southern African clade that is subdivided into four separate clades. We investigated the historical processes responsible for generating these phylogeographic patterns in southern Africa using species distribution modelling and genetic approaches. Our results show that interior regions of South Africa became largely inhospitable for B. arietans during glacial maxima, whereas coastal and more northerly areas remained habitable. This corresponds well with the locations of refugia inferred from mitochondrial data using a continuous phylogeographic diffusion model. Analysis of data from five anonymous nuclear loci revealed broadly similar patterns to mtDNA. Secondary admixture was detected between previously isolated refugial populations. In some cases, this is limited to individuals occurring near mitochondrial clade contact zones, but in other cases, more extensive admixture is evident. Overall, our study reveals a complex history of refugial isolation and secondary expansion for puff adders and a mosaic of isolated refugia in southern Africa. We also identify key differences between the processes that drove isolation in B. arietans and those hypothesized for sympatric savannah mammals.     

Sequence capture and next‐generation sequencing of ultraconserved elements in a large‐genome salamander

Amidst the rapid advancement in next‐generation sequencing (NGS) technology over the last few years, salamanders have been left behind. Salamanders have enormous genomes—up to 40 times the size of the human genome—and this poses challenges to generating NGS data sets of quality and quantity similar to those of other vertebrates. However, optimization of laboratory protocols is time‐consuming and often cost prohibitive, and continued omission of salamanders from novel phylogeographic research is detrimental to species facing decline. Here, we use a salamander endemic to the southeastern United States, Plethodon serratus, to test the utility of an established protocol for sequence capture of ultraconserved elements (UCEs) in resolving intraspecific phylogeographic relationships and delimiting cryptic species. Without modifying the standard laboratory protocol, we generated a data set consisting of over 600 million reads for 85 P. serratus samples. Species delimitation analyses support recognition of seven species within P. serratus sensu lato, and all phylogenetic relationships among the seven species are fully resolved under a coalescent model. Results also corroborate previous data suggesting nonmonophyly of the Ouachita and Louisiana regions. Our results demonstrate that established UCE protocols can successfully be used in phylogeographic studies of salamander species, providing a powerful tool for future research on evolutionary history of amphibians and other organisms with large genomes.     

An information-theoretical approach to phylogeography

Data analysis in phylogeographic investigations is typically conducted in either a qualitative manner, or alternatively via the testing of null hypotheses. The former, where inferences about population processes are derived from geographical patterns of genetic variation, may be subject to confirmation bias and prone to overinterpretation. Testing the predictions of null hypotheses is arguably less prone to bias than qualitative approaches, but only if the tested hypotheses are biologically meaningful. As it is difficult to know a priori if this is the case, there is the general need for additional methodological approaches in phylogeographic research. Here, we explore an alternative method for analysing phylogeographic data that utilizes information theory to quantify the probability of multiple hypotheses given the data. We accomplish this by augmenting the model‐selection procedure implemented in ima with calculations of Akaike Information Criterion scores and model probabilities. We generate a ranking of 17 models each representing a set of historical evolutionary processes that may have contributed to the evolution of Plethodon idahoensis, and then quantify the relative strength of support for each hypothesis given the data using metrics borrowed from information theory. Our results suggest that two models have high probability given the data. Each of these models includes population divergence and estimates of ancestral θ that differ from estimates of descendent θ, inferences consistent with prior work in this system. However, the models disagree in that one includes migration as a parameter and one does not, suggesting that there are two regions of parameter space that produce model likelihoods that are similar in magnitude given our data. Results of a simulation study suggest that when data are simulated with migration, most of the optimal models include migration as a parameter, and further that when all of the shared polymorphism results from incomplete lineage sorting, most of the optimal models do not. The results could also indicate a lack of precision, which may be a product of the amount of data that we have collected. In any case, the information‐theoretic metrics that we have applied to the analysis of our data are statistically rigorous, as are hypothesis‐testing approaches, but move beyond the ‘reject/fail to reject’ dichotomy of conventional hypothesis testing in a manner that provides considerably more flexibility to researchers.     

Late Pleistocene divergence and postglacial expansion in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest: multilocus phylogeography of Rhopias gularis (Aves: Passeriformes)

In the last decade, phylogeographic studies have revealed a complex evolutionary history of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (AF) biota. Here, we investigated the evolutionary history of Rhopias gularis, an endemic bird of the AF, based on sequences of two mitochondrial genes and three nuclear introns from 64 specimens from 15 localities. We addressed three main questions: (1) Does the genetic diversity of R. gularis exhibit a distribution pattern congruent with the refuge hypothesis postulated for the AF? (2) Is the population genetic structure of R. gularis congruent with those observed in other AF species? (3) What were the possible historical events responsible for the population structure of this species? Our mtDNA data revealed two phylogroups: (1) phylogroup central‐south, with samples from the central and southern parts of the range; (2) and phylogroup north, which included individuals from southern Bahia. Nevertheless, nuclear loci did not reveal any evidence of population structure. Bottleneck tests indicated that the central‐south lineage experienced demographic expansion, starting around 20 kya, which coincides with the end of the last glacial maximum. However, there was no evidence of population growth in phylogroup north. Isolation with migration analysis indicated that these phylogroups split c.a. 304 kya, with limited gene flow among them. Palaeodistribution models indicated that R. gularis had a reduced distribution in the south and central AF during the last glacial maximum. Our results support a diversification scenario that is in accordance with proposed Pleistocene refugia. The phylogeographic results from our study exhibited spatial and temporal concordances and discordances with previous studies of organisms from the AF. Differences in habitat requirements of these species could be behind this complex scenario. Future studies correlating variables of the niche of these species with the observed phylogeographic patterns may help understand why there are congruent and incongruent results.     

Phylogeography of a widespread lizard complex reflects patterns of both geographic and ecological isolation

A primary challenge for modern phylogeography is understanding how ecology and geography, both contemporary and historical, shape the spatial distribution and evolutionary histories of species. Phylogeographic patterns are the result of many factors, including geology, climate, habitat, colonization history and lineage‐specific constraints. Assessing the relative influences of these factors is difficult because few species, regions and environments are sampled in enough detail to compare competing hypotheses rigorously and because a particular phylogeographic pattern can potentially result from different evolutionary scenarios. The silky anoles (Anolis sericeus complex) of Central America and Mexico are abundant and found in all types of lowland terrestrial habitat, offering an excellent opportunity to test the relative influences of the factors affecting diversification. Here, we performed a range‐wide statistical phylogeographic analysis on restriction site‐associated DNA (RAD) markers from silky anoles and compared the phylogeographic patterns we recovered to historical and contemporary environmental and topographic data. We constructed niche models to compare niche overlap between sister lineages and conducted coalescent simulations to characterize how the major lineages of silky anoles have diverged. Our results revealed that the mode of divergence for major lineage diversification events was geographic isolation, resulting in ecological divergence between lineages, followed by secondary contact. Moreover, comparisons of parapatric sister lineages suggest that ecological niche divergence contributed to isolation by environment in this system, reflecting the natural history differences among populations in divergent environments.     

Biogeographic barriers,Pleistocene refugia,and climatic gradients in the southeastern Nearctic drive diversification in cornsnakes (Pantherophis guttatus complex)

The southeastern Nearctic is a biodiversity hotspot that is also rich in cryptic species. Numerous hypotheses (e.g., vicariance, local adaptation, and Pleistocene speciation in glacial refugia) have been tested in an attempt to explain diversification and the observed pattern of extant biodiversity. However, previous phylogeographic studies have both supported and refuted these hypotheses. Therefore, while data support one or more of these diversification hypotheses, it is likely that taxa are forming within this region in species‐specific ways. Here, we generate a genomic data set for the cornsnakes (Pantherophis guttatus complex), which are widespread across this region, spanning both biogeographic barriers and climatic gradients. We use phylogeographic model selection combined with hindcast ecological niche models to determine regions of habitat stability through time. This combined approach suggests that numerous drivers of population differentiation explain the current diversity of this group of snakes. The Mississippi River caused initial speciation in this species complex, with more recent divergence events linked to adaptations to ecological heterogeneity and allopatric Pleistocene refugia. Lastly, we discuss the taxonomy of this group and suggest there may be additional cryptic species in need of formal recognition.     

Clarifying an ambiguous evolutionary history: range‐wide phylogeography of an Australian freshwater fish,the golden perch (Macquaria ambigua)

Aim We conducted a range‐wide phylogeographic study of a common Australian freshwater fish, the golden perch (Macquaria ambigua), to investigate the relationship between environmental processes and evolutionary history in drainage basins. Location Inland [Lake Eyre (LEB), Murray–Darling (MDB) and Bulloo (BULL)] and coastal basins [Fitzroy (FITZ)] of eastern Australia. Methods A total of 590 samples were collected from across the entire species’ distribution and a section of the mitochondrial DNA control region was sequenced. In order to reconstruct the evolutionary history of M. ambigua a comprehensive suite of phylogeographic analyses was conducted, including nested clade phylogeographic analysis, mismatch analysis and isolation‐with‐migration model simulations. Results Three major lineages corresponding to the major drainage basins, FITZ, MDB and LEB/BULL, were identified (Φ_ST = 0.92). Lineages from the coastal basin (FITZ) were highly divergent from those of the inland basins (up to 6%). Levels of genetic diversity in the inland basins were relatively low and our analyses indicate that these populations experienced both demographic and range expansions during the Pleistocene. Main conclusions Investigation of the range‐wide phylogeography of M. ambigua has revealed new insights into the biogeography of the Australian arid zone, particularly with regard to evolutionary events chronologically associated with cyclical moist and dry conditions. We propose that M. ambigua originated on the east coast (FITZ) and crossed a major geographic barrier, the Great Dividing Range (GDR), to colonize the inland basins (MDB, LEB and BULL). We infer a series of demographic and range expansion events for M. ambigua consistent with a scenario of moister Pleistocene conditions and increased connectivity of freshwater environments, both within and among drainage basins. Major lineages then diversified following isolation of freshwater environments under increasingly arid climate conditions. We suggest that management priorities for M. ambigua should include the resolution of taxonomic uncertainties and the maintenance of genetic diversity of both stocked populations in the MDB and native populations of the LEB that may be at risk of further isolation and reduced gene flow due to increased aridification under future climate change scenarios.     

Pleistocene climatic fluctuations drive isolation and secondary contact in the red diamond rattlesnake (Crotalus ruber) in Baja California

Aim

Many studies have investigated the phylogeographic history of species on the Baja California Peninsula, and they often show one or more genetic breaks that are spatially concordant among many taxa. These phylogeographic breaks are commonly attributed to vicariance as a result of geological or climatic changes, followed by secondary contact when barriers are no longer present. We use restriction‐site associated DNA sequence data and a phylogeographic model selection approach to explicitly test the secondary contact hypothesis in the red diamond rattlesnake, Crotalus ruber.

Location

Baja California and Southern California.

Methods

We used phylogenetic and population clustering approaches to identify population structure. We then used coalescent methods to simultaneously estimate population parameters and test the fit of phylogeographic models to the data. We used ecological niche models to infer suitable habitat for C. ruber at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM).

Results

Crotalus ruber is composed of distinct northern and southern populations with a boundary near the town of Loreto in Baja California Sur. A model of isolation followed by secondary contact provides the best fit to the data, with both divergence and contact occurring in the Pleistocene. We also identify a genomic signature of northern range expansion in the northern population, consistent with LGM niche models showing that the northern‐most portion of the range of C. ruber was not suitable habitat during the LGM.

Main conclusions

We provide the first explicitly model‐based test of the secondary contact model in Baja California and show that populations of C. ruber were isolated before coming back into contact near Loreto, a region that shows phylogeographic breaks for other taxa. Given the timing of divergence and contact, we suggest that climatic fluctuations have driven the observed phylogeographic structure observed in C. ruber and that they may have driven similar patterns in other taxa.     

Comparative phylogeography of codistributed aquatic insects in western North America: insights into dispersal and regional patterns of genetic structure

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Interglacial microrefugia and diversification of a cactus species complex: phylogeography and palaeodistributional reconstructions for Pilosocereus aurisetus and allies

The role of Pleistocene climate changes in promoting evolutionary diversification in global biota is well documented, but the great majority of data regarding this subject come from North America and Europe, which were greatly affected by glaciation. The effects of Pleistocene changes on cold‐ and/or dry‐adapted species in tropical areas where glaciers were not present remain sparsely investigated. Many such species are restricted to small areas surrounded by unfavourable habitats, which may represent potential interglacial microrefugia. Here, we analysed the phylogeographic structure and diversification history of seven cactus species in the Pilosocereus aurisetus complex that are restricted to rocky areas with high diversity and endemism within the Neotropical savannas of eastern South America. We combined palaeodistributional estimates with standard phylogeographic approaches based on two chloroplast DNA regions (trnT‐trnL and trnS‐trnG), exon 1 of the nuclear gene PhyC and 10 nuclear microsatellite loci. Our analyses revealed a phylogeographic history marked by multiple levels of distributional fragmentation, isolation leading to allopatric differentiation and secondary contact among divergent lineages within the complex. Diversification and demographic events appear to have been affected by the Quaternary climatic cycles as a result of isolation in multiple patches of xerophytic vegetation. These small patches presently harbouring P. aurisetus populations seem to operate as microrefugia, both at present and during Pleistocene interglacial periods; the role of such microrefugia should be explored and analysed in greater detail.     

Climatic fluctuations shape the phylogeography of a mesic direct‐developing frog from the south‐western Australian biodiversity hotspot

Aim To assess phylogeographic pattern throughout the range of Metacrinia nichollsi in order to develop specific biogeographical hypotheses for the wet forests of south‐western Australia. This was carried out by contrasting a direct‐developing frog species, M. nichollsi, that breeds independently of free surface water with conventional, aquatic breeders and highly specialized direct developers. Location Wet forests of the south‐western Australian biodiversity hotspot – an area of high species richness and endemism for myobatrachid frogs and many other faunal groups. Methods We compiled an extensive phylogeographic data set from field‐collected samples based on mitochondrial ND2 sequences. Phylogenetic analyses combined with estimates of divergence times were used to build a model of major biogeographical events affecting the species. Phylogeographic analyses were used to provide insights into smaller‐scale processes acting within each major lineage. Results Phylogenetic analysis recovered three major lineages, with divergence dates coincident with late Miocene–early Pliocene arid cycles. One lineage was confined to geographically isolated populations in the Stirling Ranges (Stirling Ranges Lineage, SRL). The continuous range of M. nichollsi was split into two: the Main Range Lineage (MRL) and the Southern Coastal Lineage (SCL). The SCL displays a strong drainage‐based population structure, whereas the MRL displays a strong signature of recent expansion, suggesting that these two lineages have had very different biogeographical histories. Main conclusions Late Miocene–Pliocene aridity appears to have isolated populations in the Stirling Ranges and resulted in the formation of two additional lineages on a north–south gradient that are independent of southward‐flowing drainage systems. Our results demonstrate that climatic fluctuations are likely to have generated fine‐scale phylogeographic structure within M. nichollsi and that catchment regions are important refugia during arid cycles.     

Evaluating mechanisms of diversification in a Guineo‐Congolian tropical forest frog using demographic model selection

The accumulation of biodiversity in tropical forests can occur through multiple allopatric and parapatric models of diversification, including forest refugia, riverine barriers and ecological gradients. Considerable debate surrounds the major diversification process, particularly in the West African Lower Guinea forests, which contain a complex geographic arrangement of topographic features and historical refugia. We used genomic data to investigate alternative mechanisms of diversification in the Gaboon forest frog, Scotobleps gabonicus, by first identifying population structure and then performing demographic model selection and spatially explicit analyses. We found that a majority of population divergences are best explained by allopatric models consistent with the forest refugia hypothesis and involve divergence in isolation with subsequent expansion and gene flow. These population divergences occurred simultaneously and conform to predictions based on climatically stable regions inferred through ecological niche modelling. Although forest refugia played a prominent role in the intraspecific diversification of S. gabonicus, we also find evidence for potential interactions between landscape features and historical refugia, including major rivers and elevational barriers such as the Cameroonian Volcanic Line. We outline the advantages of using genomewide variation in a model‐testing framework to distinguish between alternative allopatric hypotheses, and the pitfalls of limited geographic and molecular sampling. Although phylogeographic patterns are often species‐specific and related to life‐history traits, additional comparative studies incorporating genomic data are necessary for separating shared historical processes from idiosyncratic responses to environmental, climatic and geological influences on diversification.     

Phylogeographic inference using Bayesian model comparison across a fragmented chorus frog species complex

Fragmented species complexes provide an interesting system for investigating biogeographic history and the present distribution of genetic variation. Recent advances in sequencing technology and statistical phylogeography enable the collection and rigorous analysis of large multilocus data sets, but designing studies that produce meaningful phylogeographic inferences remains challenging. We implemented a Bayesian model comparison approach to investigate previous biogeographic hypotheses while simultaneously inferring the presence of genetic structure in a chorus frog species complex. The Illinois chorus frog (Pseudacris illinoensis), originally described as a subspecies of the broadly distributed Strecker's chorus frog (Pseudacris streckeri), occurs in small, disjunct regions associated with scarce sand prairie habitats that have been impacted by human development. We used high‐throughput sequencing to develop and collect a multitiered genetic data set comprised of three different marker types (23 anonymous nuclear sequence loci, four mitochondrial genes and 14 microsatellite loci) designed to address questions across different evolutionary timescales. Phylogenetic analyses uncovered a deep divergence between populations in the Edwards Plateau of central Texas and all other P. streckeri/P. illinoensis populations, but suggest the disjunct distribution of P. illinoensis occurred more recently. Our best‐supported migration model is consistent with the hypothesis that central Texas represented a refugium from which populations expanded via multiple routes. This model also indicates that disjunct northern and southern regions of P. illinoensis should be considered genetically distinct management units. Our study provides an evolutionary context for future studies and conservation efforts in P. illinoensis and demonstrates the utility of model‐based approaches for phylogeographic inference.     

Integrating species distribution models (SDMs) and phylogeography for two species of Alpine Primula

The major intention of the present study was to investigate whether an approach combining the use of niche-based palaeodistribution modeling and phylo-geography would support or modify hypotheses about the Quaternary distributional history derived from phylogeographic methods alone. Our study system comprised two closely related species of Alpine Primula. We used species distribution models based on the extant distribution of the species and last glacial maximum (LGM) climate models to predict the distribution of the two species during the LGM. Phylogeographic data were generated using amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs). In Primula hirsuta, models of past distribution and phylogeographic data are partly congruent and support the hypothesis of widespread nunatak survival in the Central Alps. Species distribution models (SDMs) allowed us to differentiate between alpine regions that harbor potential nunatak areas and regions that have been colonized from other areas. SDMs revealed that diversity is a good indicator for nunataks, while rarity is a good indicator for peripheral relict populations that were not source for the recolonization of the inner Alps. In P. daonensis, palaeo-distribution models and phylogeographic data are incongruent. Besides the uncertainty inherent to this type of modeling approach (e.g., relatively coarse 1-km grain size), disagreement of models and data may partly be caused by shifts of ecological niche in both species. Nevertheless, we demonstrate that the combination of palaeo-distribution modeling with phylogeographical approaches provides a more differentiated picture of the distributional history of species and partly supports (P. hirsuta) and partly modifies (P. daonensis and P. hirsuta) hypotheses of Quaternary distributional history. Some of the refugial area indicated by palaeodistribution models could not have been identified with phylogeographic data.     

Phylogeography of Plathymenia reticulata (Leguminosae) reveals patterns of recent range expansion towards northeastern Brazil and southern Cerrados in Eastern Tropical South America

Little is known about past vegetation dynamics in Eastern Tropical South America (ETSA). Here we describe patterns of chloroplast (cp) DNA variation in Plathymenia reticulata, a widespread tree in the ETSA Atlantic Forest and Cerrado biomes, but not found in the xeromorphic Caatinga. Forty one populations, comprising 220 individuals, were analysed by sequencing the trnS‐trnG and trnL‐trnL‐trnF cpDNA regions. Combined, they resulted in 18 geographically structured haplotypes. The central region of the sampling area, comprising Minas Gerais and Goiás Brazilian states, is a centre of genetic diversity and probably the most longstanding area of the distribution range of the species. In contrast, populations from northeastern Brazil and the southern Cerrados showed very low diversity levels, almost exclusively with common haplotypes which are also found in the central region. Coupled with a long‐branched star‐like network, these patterns suggest a recent range expansion of P. reticulata to those regions from central region sources. The recent origin of the species (in the early Pleistocene) or the extinction of some populations due to drier and cooler climate during the last glacial maximum could have been responsible for that phylogeographic pattern. The populations from northeastern Brazil originated from two colonization routes, one eastern (Atlantic) and one western (inland). Due to its high diversity and complex landscape, the central region, especially central‐north Minas Gerais (between 15°–18° S and 42°–46° W), should be given the highest priority for conservation.