Land Cover Change in Colombia: Surprising Forest Recovery Trends between 2001 and 2010

Background

Monitoring land change at multiple spatial scales is essential for identifying hotspots of change, and for developing and implementing policies for conserving biodiversity and habitats. In the high diversity country of Colombia, these types of analyses are difficult because there is no consistent wall-to-wall, multi-temporal dataset for land-use and land-cover change.

Methodology/Principal Findings

To address this problem, we mapped annual land-use and land-cover from 2001 to 2010 in Colombia using MODIS (250 m) products coupled with reference data from high spatial resolution imagery (QuickBird) in Google Earth. We used QuickBird imagery to visually interpret percent cover of eight land cover classes used for classifier training and accuracy assessment. Based on these maps we evaluated land cover change at four spatial scales country, biome, ecoregion, and municipality. Of the 1,117 municipalities, 820 had a net gain in woody vegetation (28,092 km²) while 264 had a net loss (11,129 km²), which resulted in a net gain of 16,963 km² in woody vegetation at the national scale. Woody regrowth mainly occurred in areas previously classified as mixed woody/plantation rather than agriculture/herbaceous. The majority of this gain occurred in the Moist Forest biome, within the montane forest ecoregions, while the greatest loss of woody vegetation occurred in the Llanos and Apure-Villavicencio ecoregions.

Conclusions

The unexpected forest recovery trend, particularly in the Andes, provides an opportunity to expand current protected areas and to promote habitat connectivity. Furthermore, ecoregions with intense land conversion (e.g. Northern Andean Páramo) and ecoregions under-represented in the protected area network (e.g. Llanos, Apure-Villavicencio Dry forest, and Magdalena-Urabá Moist forest ecoregions) should be considered for new protected areas.     

A new forest cover map of continental southeast Asia derived from SPOT‐VEGETATION satellite imagery

Question: Can recent satellite imagery of coarse spatial resolution support forest cover assessment and mapping at the regional level? Location: Continental southeast Asia. Methods: Forest cover mapping was based on digital classification of SPOT4‐VEGETATION satellite images of 1 km spatial resolution from the dry seasons 1998/1999 and 1999/2000. Following a geographical stratification, the spectral clusters were visually assigned to land cover classes. The forest classes were validated by an independent set of maps, derived from interpretation of satellite imagery of high spatial resolution (Landsat TM, 30 m). Forest area estimates from the regional forest cover map were compared to the forest figures of the FAO database. Results: The regional forest cover map displays 12 forest and land cover classes. The mapping of the region's deciduous and fragmented forest cover remained challenging. A high correlation was found between forest area estimates obtained from this map and from the Landsat TM derived maps. The regional and sub‐regional forest area estimates were close to those reported by FAO. Conclusion: SPOT4‐VEGETATION satellite imagery can be used for mapping consistently and uniformly the extent and distribution of the broad forest cover types at the regional scale. The new map can be considered as an update and improvement on existing regional forest cover maps.     

Landscape‐level tree cover predicts species richness of large‐bodied frugivorous birds in forest fragments

Large‐bodied frugivorous birds play an important role in dispersing large‐sized seeds in Neotropical rain forests, thereby maintaining tree species richness and diversity. Conversion of contiguous forest land to forest fragments is thought to be driving population declines in large‐bodied frugivores, but the mechanistic drivers of this decline remain poorly understood. To assess the importance of fragment‐level versus local landscape attributes in influencing the species richness of large‐bodied (>100 g) frugivorous birds, we surveyed 15 focal species in 22 forest fragments (2.7 to 33.6 ha, avg. = 16.0 ha) in northwest Ecuador in 2014. Fragment habitat variables included density of large trees, canopy openness and height, and fragment size; landscape variables included elevation and the proportion of tree cover within a 1 km radius of each fragment. At both the individual species level, and across the community of 12 species of avian frugivore we detected, there was higher richness and probability of presence in fragments with more tree cover on surrounding land. This tendency was particularly pronounced among some endangered species. These findings corroborate the idea that partially forested land surrounding fragments may effectively increase the suitable habitat for forest‐dwelling frugivorous birds in fragmented landscapes. These results can help guide conservation priorities within fragmented landscapes, with particular reference to retaining trees and reforesting to attain high levels of tree cover in areas between forest patches.     

Extensive land cover change across Arctic–Boreal Northwestern North America from disturbance and climate forcing

A multitude of disturbance agents, such as wildfires, land use, and climate‐driven expansion of woody shrubs, is transforming the distribution of plant functional types across Arctic–Boreal ecosystems, which has significant implications for interactions and feedbacks between terrestrial ecosystems and climate in the northern high‐latitude. However, because the spatial resolution of existing land cover datasets is too coarse, large‐scale land cover changes in the Arctic–Boreal region (ABR) have been poorly characterized. Here, we use 31 years (1984–2014) of moderate spatial resolution (30 m) satellite imagery over a region spanning 4.7 × 10⁶ km² in Alaska and northwestern Canada to characterize regional‐scale ABR land cover changes. We find that 13.6 ± 1.3% of the domain has changed, primarily via two major modes of transformation: (a) simultaneous disturbance‐driven decreases in Evergreen Forest area (?14.7 ± 3.0% relative to 1984) and increases in Deciduous Forest area (+14.8 ± 5.2%) in the Boreal biome; and (b) climate‐driven expansion of Herbaceous and Shrub vegetation (+7.4 ± 2.0%) in the Arctic biome. By using time series of 30 m imagery, we characterize dynamics in forest and shrub cover occurring at relatively short spatial scales (hundreds of meters) due to fires, harvest, and climate‐induced growth that are not observable in coarse spatial resolution (e.g., 500 m or greater pixel size) imagery. Wildfires caused most of Evergreen Forest Loss and Evergreen Forest Gain and substantial areas of Deciduous Forest Gain. Extensive shifts in the distribution of plant functional types at multiple spatial scales are consistent with observations of increased atmospheric CO₂ seasonality and ecosystem productivity at northern high‐latitudes and signal continental‐scale shifts in the structure and function of northern high‐latitude ecosystems in response to climate change.     

The complexity of forest borders determines the understorey vegetation

Questions

What are the most important drivers of plant species richness (gamma‐diversity) and species turnover (beta‐diversity) in the field layer of a forest edge? Does the tree and shrub species richness structure and complexity affect the richness of forest and grassland specialist species?

Location

Southeast Sweden.

Methods

We sampled 50 forest edges with different levels of structural complexity in agricultural landscapes. In each border we recorded trees, shrubs and herb layer species in a 50‐m transect parallel with the forest. We investigated species composition and species turnover in relation to the proportions of gaps in the border and the diversity of trees and shrubs.

Results

Total plant species richness in the field layer was mainly explained by the proportion of gaps to areas with full canopy cover and tree diversity. Increasing number of gaps promoted higher diversity of grassland specialist species within the field layer, resulting in open forest borders with the highest overall species richness. Gaps did however have a negative impact on forest species richness. Conversely, increasing forest species richness was positively related to tree diversity, but the number of grassland specialist species was negatively affected by tree diversity.

Conclusions

Managing forest borders, and therefore increasing the area of semi‐open habitats in fragmented agricultural landscapes, provides future opportunities to create a network of suitable habitats for both grassland and deciduous forest specialist species. Such measures therefore have the potential to increase functional connectivity and support dispersal of species in homogeneous forest/agricultural landscapes.     

Satellite microwave detection of boreal forest recovery from the extreme 2004 wildfires in Alaska and Canada

The rate of vegetation recovery from boreal wildfire influences terrestrial carbon cycle processes and climate feedbacks by affecting the surface energy budget and land‐atmosphere carbon exchange. Previous forest recovery assessments using satellite optical‐infrared normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and tower CO₂ eddy covariance techniques indicate rapid vegetation recovery within 5–10 years, but these techniques are not directly sensitive to changes in vegetation biomass. Alternatively, the vegetation optical depth (VOD) parameter from satellite passive microwave remote sensing can detect changes in canopy biomass structure and may provide a useful metric of post‐fire vegetation response to inform regional recovery assessments. We analyzed a multi‐year (2003–2010) satellite VOD record from the NASA AMSR‐E (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS) sensor to estimate forest recovery trajectories for 14 large boreal fires from 2004 in Alaska and Canada. The VOD record indicated initial post‐fire canopy biomass recovery within 3–7 years, lagging NDVI recovery by 1–5 years. The VOD lag was attributed to slower non‐photosynthetic (woody) and photosynthetic (foliar) canopy biomass recovery, relative to the faster canopy greenness response indicated from the NDVI. The duration of VOD recovery to pre‐burn conditions was also directly proportional (P < 0.01) to satellite (moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer) estimated tree cover loss used as a metric of fire severity. Our results indicate that vegetation biomass recovery from boreal fire disturbance is generally slower than reported from previous assessments based solely on satellite optical‐infrared remote sensing, while the VOD parameter enables more comprehensive assessments of boreal forest recovery.     

Fruit biomass availability along a forest cover gradient

Habitat loss is the main driver of the current high rate of species extinction, particularly in tropical forests. Understanding the factors associated with biodiversity loss, such as the extinction of species interactions and ecological functions, is an urgent priority. Here, our aim was to evaluate how landscape‐scale forest cover influences fruit biomass comparing different tree functional groups. We sampled 20 forest fragments located within landscapes with forest cover ranging from 2 to 93 percent in the Atlantic forest of southern Bahia, Brazil. In each fragment, we established five plots of 25 × 4 m and carried out phenological observations on fleshy fruit throughout 1 year on all trees ≥5 cm dbh. We estimated fruit availability by direct counting of all fruits and derived fruit biomass from this count. We used spatial mixed linear models to evaluate the effects of forest cover on species richness, abundance, and fruit biomass. Our results indicated that forest cover was the main explanatory variable and negatively influenced the total richness and abundance of zoochoric and shade‐tolerant but not shade‐intolerant species. A linear model best explained variations in richness and abundance of total and shade‐tolerant species. We also found that forest cover was positively correlated with the fruit biomass produced by all species and by the shade‐tolerant assemblages, with linear models best explaining both relationships. The loss of shade‐tolerant species and the lower fruit production in fragments with lower landscape‐scale forest cover may have implications for the maintenance of frugivore, seed dispersal service, and plant recruitment.     

Landscape drivers of regional variation in the relationship between total phosphorus and chlorophyll in lakes

1. For north temperate lakes, the well‐studied empirical relationship between phosphorus (as measured by total phosphorus, TP), the most commonly limiting nutrient and algal biomass (as measured by chlorophyll a, CHL) has been found to vary across a wide range of landscape settings. Variation in the parameters of these TP–CHL regressions has been attributed to such lake variables as nitrogen/phosphorus ratios, organic carbon and alkalinity, all of which are strongly related to catchment characteristics (e.g. natural land cover and human land use). Although this suggests that landscape setting can help to explain much of the variation in ecoregional TP–CHL regression parameters, few studies have attempted to quantify relationships at an ecoregional spatial scale. 2. We tested the hypothesis that lake algal biomass and its predicted response to changes in phosphorus are related to both local‐scale features (e.g. lake and catchment) and ecoregional‐scale features, all of which affect the availability and transport of covarying solutes such as nitrogen, organic carbon and alkalinity. Specifically, we expected that land use and cover, acting at both local and ecoregional scales, would partially explain the spatial pattern in parameters of the TP–CHL regression. 3. We used a multilevel modelling framework and data from 2105 inland lakes spanning 35 ecoregions in six US states to test our hypothesis and identify specific local and ecoregional features that explain spatial heterogeneity in TP–CHL relationships. We include variables such as lake depth, natural land cover (for instance, wetland cover in the catchment of lakes and in the ecoregions) and human land use (for instance, agricultural land use in the catchment of lakes and in the ecoregions). 4. There was substantial heterogeneity in TP–CHL relationships across the 35 ecoregions. At the local scale, CHL was negatively and positively related to lake mean depth and percentage of wooded wetlands in the catchment, respectively. At the ecoregional scale, the slope parameter was positively related to the percentage of pasture in an ecoregion, indicating that CHL tends to respond more rapidly to changes in TP where there are high levels of agricultural pasture than where there is little. The intercept (i.e. the ecoregion‐average CHL) was negatively related to the percentage of wooded wetlands in the ecoregion. 5. By explicitly accounting for the hierarchical nature of lake–landscape interactions, we quantified the effects of landscape characteristics on the response of CHL to TP at two spatial scales. We provide new insight into ecoregional drivers of the rate at which algal biomass responds to changes in nutrient concentrations. Our results also indicate that the direction and magnitude of the effects of certain land use and cover characteristics on lake nutrient dynamics may be scale dependent and thus likely to represent different underlying mechanisms regulating lake productivity.     

Analysing Betula litwinowii encroachment and reforestation in the Kazbegi region,Greater Caucasus,Georgia

Aims

The encroachment of tree and shrub species in high mountains is an increasing worldwide phenomenon, which is expected to dramatically alter high‐mountain ecosystems and their functioning. Moreover it indicates in some cases a reforestation process, which will result in important ecological and social benefits, including carbon sequestration and protection against landslides. We therefore examined the spatial extent of forest growth and shrub encroachment mainly of birch (Betula litwinowii) in the sub‐alpine belt of the Central Greater Caucasus between 1987 and 2010 and its relation to topographic site conditions.

Location

Kazbegi district, Central Greater Caucasus, Georgia.

Methods

We analysed 155 vegetation relevés sampled in 2009, 2011 and 2015, mainly derived from the Caucasus Vegetation Database, to obtain information about topographic site conditions and structure of B. litwinowii stands. B. litwinowii forest growth was assessed by digitizing the forest outlines from aerial and space‐borne imagery (1987, 2005 and 2010). To identify areas of B. litwinowii encroachment as an indicator for different encroachment stages, we modelled the tree and shrub cover using the Random Forest algorithm.

Results

We found four types of B. litwinowii stands, characterized by different tree and shrub coverage (initial Bromus variegatus–Betula litwinowii encroachment indicating the first stage of succession, Aconitum nasutum–Betula litwinowii forest, Rubus idaeus–Betula litwinowii forest and Rhododendron caucasicum–Betula litwinowii tree line scrubs). B. litwinowii forest increased 25% compared to 1987 mainly in an uphill direction. Furthermore the modelled tree and shrub cover (R² = .69) could be related to the four vegetation types.

Conclusions

Our results indicate a recent trend towards shrub encroachment and consequently reforestation in the Kazbegi region.     

Forest cover dynamics analysis and prediction modeling using logistic regression model

Forest cover conversion and depletion are of global concern due to their role in global warming. The present study attempted to study the forest cover dynamics and prediction modeling in Bhanupratappur Forest Division of Kanker district in Chhattisgarh province of India. The study aims to examine and analyze the various explanatory variables associated with forest conversion process and predict forest cover change using logistic regression model (LRM). The forest cover for the periods 1990 and 2000, derived from Landsat TM satellite imagery, was used to predict the forest cover for 2010. The predictive performance of the model was assessed by comparing the model-predicted forest cover with the actual forest cover for 2010. To explain the effects of anthropogenic pressure on forest, this study considered three distance variables viz., distance from forest edge, roads and settlements, and slope position classes as explanatory variables of forest change. The highest regression coefficient (β = −26.892) was noticed in case of distance from forest edge, which signifies the higher probability of forest change in areas that are closer to the forest edges. The analysis showed that forest cover has undergone continuous change between 1990 and 2010, leading to the loss of 107.2 km² of forest area. The LRM successfully predicted the forest cover for the period 2010 with reasonably high accuracy (ROC = 87%).     

Not only trees: Grasses determine African tropical biome distributions via water limitation and fire

Aim

Although much tropical ecology generally focuses on trees, grasses are fundamental for characterizing the extensive tropical grassy biomes (TGBs) and, together with the tree functional types, for determining the contrasting functional patterns of TGBs and tropical forests (TFs). To study the factors that determine African biome distribution and the transitions between them, we performed the first continental analysis to include grass and tree functional types.

Location

Sub‐Saharan Africa.

Time period

2000–2010.

Major taxa studied

Savanna and forest trees and C₄ grasses.

Methods

We combined remote‐sensing data with a land cover map, using tree functional types to identify TGBs and TFs. We analysed the relationships of grass and tree cover with fire interval, rainfall annual average and seasonality.

Results

In TGBs experiencing < 630 mm annual rainfall, grass growth was water limited. Grass cover and fire recurrence were strongly and directly related over the entire subcontinent. Some TGBs and TFs with annual rainfall > 1,200 mm had the same rainfall seasonality but displayed strongly different fire regimes.

Main conclusions

Water limitation to grass growth was fundamental in the driest TGBs, acting alongside the well‐known limitation to tree growth. Marked differences in fire regimes across all biomes indicated that fire was especially relevant for maintaining mesic and humid TGBs. At high rainfall, our results support the hypothesis of TGBs and TFs being alternative stable states maintained by a vegetation–fire feedback for similar climatic conditions.     

Carbon implications of converting cropland to bioenergy crops or forest for climate mitigation: a global assessment

The potential for climate change mitigation by bioenergy crops and terrestrial carbon sinks has been the object of intensive research in the past decade. There has been much debate about whether energy crops used to offset fossil fuel use, or carbon sequestration in forests, would provide the best climate mitigation benefit. Most current food cropland is unlikely to be used for bioenergy, but in many regions of the world, a proportion of cropland is being abandoned, particularly marginal croplands, and some of this land is now being used for bioenergy. In this study, we assess the consequences of land‐use change on cropland. We first identify areas where cropland is so productive that it may never be converted and assess the potential of the remaining cropland to mitigate climate change by identifying which alternative land use provides the best climate benefit: C₄ grass bioenergy crops, coppiced woody energy crops or allowing forest regrowth to create a carbon sink. We do not present this as a scenario of land‐use change – we simply assess the best option in any given global location should a land‐use change occur. To do this, we use global biomass potential studies based on food crop productivity, forest inventory data and dynamic global vegetation models to provide, for the first time, a global comparison of the climate change implications of either deploying bioenergy crops or allowing forest regeneration on current crop land, over a period of 20 years starting in the nominal year of 2000 ad . Globally, the extent of cropland on which conversion to energy crops or forest would result in a net carbon loss, and therefore likely always to remain as cropland, was estimated to be about 420.1 Mha, or 35.6% of the total cropland in Africa, 40.3% in Asia and Russia Federation, 30.8% in Europe‐25, 48.4% in North America, 13.7% in South America and 58.5% in Oceania. Fast growing C₄ grasses such as Miscanthus and switch‐grass cultivars are the bioenergy feedstock with the highest climate mitigation potential. Fast growing C₄ grasses such as Miscanthus and switch‐grass cultivars provide the best climate mitigation option on ≈485 Mha of cropland worldwide with ~42% of this land characterized by a terrain slope equal or above 20%. If that land‐use change did occur, it would displace ≈58.1 Pg fossil fuel C equivalent (C_eq oil). Woody energy crops such as poplar, willow and Eucalyptus species would be the best option on only 2.4% (≈26.3 Mha) of current cropland, and if this land‐use change occurred, it would displace ≈0.9 Pg C_eq oil. Allowing cropland to revert to forest would be the best climate mitigation option on ≈17% of current cropland (≈184.5 Mha), and if this land‐use change occurred, it would sequester ≈5.8 Pg C in biomass in the 20‐year‐old forest and ≈2.7 Pg C in soil. This study is spatially explicit, so also serves to identify the regional differences in the efficacy of different climate mitigation options, informing policymakers developing regionally or nationally appropriate mitigation actions.     

Apparent resilience of a declining Afro‐Palaearctic migrant to forest loss on the wintering grounds

Populations of long‐distance migrant birds are declining but it is unknown what role land cover change in non‐breeding areas may be playing in this process. Using compositional analysis, we assessed habitat selection by one such migrant, the Wood Warbler Phylloscopus sibilatrix, at a wintering site in the forest–savannah transition zone in Eastern Region, Ghana. There was a preference for forest, a habitat that is in marked decline at this site. Annual habitat mapping revealed that the area of forest declined by 26% between 2011/12 and 2013/14, mainly through clearance for conversion to arable land. Numbers of birds changed throughout the season, but despite the reduction in the preferred forest habitat, there was no change in the total number of birds recorded at the site over the study period. The number of birds recorded at a point was positively related to the proportion of cleared land, plantation and, to a lesser extent, dense forest within 100 m. Investigation of the fine‐scale habitat preferences of radiotagged Wood Warblers suggested that there was an optimum number of trees, around 66–143 per hectare, at which estimated probability of occupancy was 0.5, falling to a probability of 0.2 at 25 trees per hectare. We suggest that Wood Warblers may be buffered against the loss of forest habitat by their ability to utilize degraded habitats, such as well‐wooded farmland, that still retain a substantial number of trees. However, the continued loss of trees, from both forest and farmland is ultimately likely to have a negative impact on wintering Wood Warblers in the long‐term.     

Mapping land cover and forest density in Zagros forests of Khuzestan province in Iran: A study based on Sentinel-2, Google Earth and field data

Zagros forests in western Iran have widely been destroyed because of various reasons. This study was performed to provide the land cover and forest density maps in Zagros forests of Khuzestan province using Sentinel-2, Google Earth and field data. The forest boundary in Khuzestan province was digitized in Google Earth. Sentinel-2 satellite images were provided for the study area. One 1:25000 index sheet of Iranian Mapping Organization (IMO) was selected as pilot area in the province. Sentinel-2 image of the pilot area was classified using different supervised classification algorithms to select the best algorithm for land cover mapping in Khuzestan province. In addition, to evaluate the accuracy of Google Earth data, field sampling was performed using random plots in different land covers. Field data of forest plots were applied to investigate tree canopy cover percent (forest density), as well. Classification of Sentinel-2 image in Zagros area of Khuzestan province was done using the best algorithm and the land cover was obtained. The forest density map was also obtained using a linear regression model between tree canopy cover percent (obtained from field plots) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) (obtained from NDVI map). Finally, the accuracy of land cover map was assessed by some square plots on Google Earth. Results demonstrated that support vector machine (SVM) algorithm had the highest accuracy for land cover mapping. Results also showed that Google Earth images had a good accuracy in the Zagros forests of Khuzestan province. Results demonstrated that NDVI has been a good predicator to estimate tree canopy cover in the study area. Based on results, an area of 443,091.22 ha is covered by Zagros forests in Khuzestan province. Results of accuracy assessment of the land cover map showed the good accuracy of this map in Khuzestan province (overall accuracy: 91% and kappa index: 0.83). For optimum management of Zagros forests, it is suggested that the land cover and forest density mapping will be performed using SVM algorithm, NDVI, and Sentinel-2 satellite images in Zagros forests of Khuzestan province in the certain periods.     

From forest to farmland: pollen‐inferred land cover change across Europe using the pseudobiomization approach

Maps of continental‐scale land cover are utilized by a range of diverse users but whilst a range of products exist that describe present and recent land cover in Europe, there are currently no datasets that describe past variations over long time‐scales. User groups with an interest in past land cover include the climate modelling community, socio‐ecological historians and earth system scientists. Europe is one of the continents with the longest histories of land conversion from forest to farmland, thus understanding land cover change in this area is globally significant. This study applies the pseudobiomization method (PBM) to 982 pollen records from across Europe, taken from the European Pollen Database (EPD) to produce a first synthesis of pan‐European land cover change for the period 9000 bp to present, in contiguous 200 year time intervals. The PBM transforms pollen proportions from each site to one of eight land cover classes (LCCs) that are directly comparable to the CORINE land cover classification. The proportion of LCCs represented in each time window provides a spatially aggregated record of land cover change for temperate and northern Europe, and for a series of case study regions (western France, the western Alps, and the Czech Republic and Slovakia). At the European scale, the impact of Neolithic food producing economies appear to be detectable from 6000 bp through reduction in broad‐leaf forests resulting from human land use activities such as forest clearance. Total forest cover at a pan‐European scale moved outside the range of previous background variability from 4000 bp onwards. From 2200 bp land cover change intensified, and the broad pattern of land cover for preindustrial Europe was established by 1000 bp . Recognizing the timing of anthropogenic land cover change in Europe will further the understanding of land cover‐climate interactions, and the origins of the modern cultural landscape.     

Ecoregions within the Brazilian Pampa biome reflected in Odonata species assemblies

Based on vegetation composition, previous studies of the Pampa biome in southern Brazil have defined seven ecoregions within the area. Here, we test this ecoregion approach studying the semi‐aquatic insect group Odonata in five of these regions, aiming at comparing the ecoregions to the more traditional environmental predictors of water quality and land cover. Based on a data set of occupancy comprising 99 species distributed between 131 localities, a one‐way Permutational Multivariate Analysis of Variance was used to compare differences in the species composition between the ecoregions, followed by a Principal Component Analysis to visualize the variation. The composition varied significantly between all groups tested, and the ordination explained 61.8% of the variance. A partial redundancy analysis of ecoregions, land cover and water quality variables explained 71% of the variance in Odonata community structure. Ecoregion was the most important predictor, followed by water quality and land cover. Within these species assemblies, we could select certain species that were representative of a given ecoregion, to which their distribution within the Pampa biome was entirely or mainly confined. Of 24 representative species 41.7% were rare, while the rest were more abundant and, hence, easier to detect. We suspect that the differences found between the Pampa ecoregions might be due to geology, as such factors may be strong determinants of biodiversity. Specific ecological requirements at the family and genus levels also seemed to act selectively on the species compositions within the ecoregions. Today, the Pampa is highly fragmented due to agricultural activities such as rice cultivation, extensive cattle farming and forest plantations. We suggest that an ecoregion‐based approach to the implementation of conservation measures may be the best way to help these distinct species assemblies survive.     

Extent of industrial plantations on Southeast Asian peatlands in 2010 with analysis of historical expansion and future projections

Tropical peatlands cover over 25 Mha in Southeast Asia and are estimated to contain around 70 Gt of carbon. Peat swamp forest ecosystems are an important part of the region's natural resources supporting unique flora and fauna endemic to Southeast Asia. Over recent years, industrial plantation development on peatland, especially for oil palm cultivation, has created intense debate due to its potentially adverse social and environmental effects. The lack of objective up‐to‐date information on the extent of industrial plantations has complicated quantification of their regional and global environmental consequences, both in terms of loss of forest and biodiversity as well as increases in carbon emissions. Based on visual interpretation of high‐resolution (30 m) satellite images, we find that industrial plantations covered over 3.1 Mha (20%) of the peatlands of Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra and Borneo in 2010, surpassing the area of Belgium and causing an annual carbon emission from peat decomposition of 230–310 Mt CO_2e. The majority (62%) of the plantations were located on the island of Sumatra, and over two‐thirds (69%) of all industrial plantations were developed for oil palm cultivation, with the remainder mostly being Acacia plantations for paper pulp production. Historical analysis shows strong acceleration of plantation development in recent years: 70% of all industrial plantations have been established since 2000 and only 4% of the current plantation area existed in 1990. ‘Business‐as‐usual’ projections of future conversion rates, based on historical rates over the past two decades, indicate that 6–9 Mha of peatland in insular Southeast Asia may be converted to plantations by the year 2020, unless land use planning policies or markets for products change. This would increase the annual carbon emission to somewhere between 380 and 920 Mt CO_2e by 2020 depending on water management practices and the extent of plantations.     

Assessing large area forest cover products derived from the same imaging source across Victoria,Australia

Forest cover products are an essential tool for land managers and policy makers. They are used at a variety of spatial scales to inform decision‐making and policy across a range of ecosystem drivers and services. This article compares three forest cover products (FCP), all of which were created using Landsat satellite imagery, but using different methodologies and covering different spatial extents that range from global to state. It also explores their use and utility across the state of Victoria, Australia. It asks the question, how interchangeable are the forest cover maps? FCP are also validated against a very high‐resolution reference data set. Overall accuracy was around 89% for the state and national FCP, and 84% for the global FCP. The global map produced the lowest estimate of total forest cover, while estimates obtained by the national and state FCP were similar across the study area. Spatially, differences, however, were apparent. The national forest cover map obtained higher estimates across most of Victoria except in the most arid region which is dominated by low open woodland. While the national and global scale forest cover maps were found to have good diagnostic ability for large area assessment and reporting, their use for land management is not optimal and can lead to gross error.     

Rates of woody encroachment in African savannas reflect water constraints and fire disturbance

Aim

The aims of this study were to (1) estimate current rates of woody encroachment across African savannas; (2) identify relationships between change in woody cover and potential drivers, including water constraints, fire frequency and livestock density. The found relationships led us to pursue a third goal: (3) use temporal dynamics in woody cover to estimate potential woody cover.

Location

Sub‐Saharan African savannas.

Methods

The study used very high spatial resolution satellite imagery at sites with overlapping older (2002–2006) and newer (2011–2016) imagery to estimate change in woody cover. We sampled 596 sites in 38 separate areas across African savannas. Areas with high anthropogenic impact were avoided in order to more clearly identify the influence of environmental factors. Relationships between woody cover change and potential drivers were identified using linear regression and simultaneous autoregression, where the latter accounts for spatial autocorrelation.

Results

The mean annual change in woody cover across our study areas was 0.25% per year. Although we cannot explain the general trend of encroachment based on our data, we found that change rates were positively correlated with the difference between potential woody cover and actual woody cover (a proxy for water availability; p < .001), and negatively correlated with fire frequency (p < .01). Using the relationship between rates of encroachment and initial cover, we estimated potential woody cover at different rainfall levels.

Main conclusions

The results indicate that woody encroachment is ongoing and widespread across African savannas. The fact that the difference between potential and actual cover was the most significant predictor highlights the central role of water availability and tree–tree competition in controlling change in woody populations, both in water‐limited and mesic savannas. Our approach to derive potential woody cover from the woody cover change trajectories demonstrates that temporal dynamics in woody populations can be used to infer resource limitations.     

Thermokarst rates intensify due to climate change and forest fragmentation in an Alaskan boreal forest lowland

Lowland boreal forest ecosystems in Alaska are dominated by wetlands comprised of a complex mosaic of fens, collapse‐scar bogs, low shrub/scrub, and forests growing on elevated ice‐rich permafrost soils. Thermokarst has affected the lowlands of the Tanana Flats in central Alaska for centuries, as thawing permafrost collapses forests that transition to wetlands. Located within the discontinuous permafrost zone, this region has significantly warmed over the past half‐century, and much of these carbon‐rich permafrost soils are now within ~0.5 °C of thawing. Increased permafrost thaw in lowland boreal forests in response to warming may have consequences for the climate system. This study evaluates the trajectories and potential drivers of 60 years of forest change in a landscape subjected to permafrost thaw in unburned dominant forest types (paper birch and black spruce) associated with location on elevated permafrost plateau and across multiple time periods (1949, 1978, 1986, 1998, and 2009) using historical and contemporary aerial and satellite images for change detection. We developed (i) a deterministic statistical model to evaluate the potential climatic controls on forest change using gradient boosting and regression tree analysis, and (ii) a 30 × 30 m land cover map of the Tanana Flats to estimate the potential landscape‐level losses of forest area due to thermokarst from 1949 to 2009. Over the 60‐year period, we observed a nonlinear loss of birch forests and a relatively continuous gain of spruce forest associated with thermokarst and forest succession, while gradient boosting/regression tree models identify precipitation and forest fragmentation as the primary factors controlling birch and spruce forest change, respectively. Between 1950 and 2009, landscape‐level analysis estimates a transition of ~15 km² or ~7% of birch forests to wetlands, where the greatest change followed warm periods. This work highlights that the vulnerability and resilience of lowland ice‐rich permafrost ecosystems to climate changes depend on forest type.