First molecular identification of the vertebrate hosts of Culicoides imicola in Europe and a review of its blood‐feeding patterns worldwide: implications for the transmission of bluetongue disease and African horse sickness

Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are vectors of pathogens that affect wildlife, livestock and, occasionally, humans. Culicoides imicola (Kieffer, 1913) is considered to be the main vector of the pathogens that cause bluetongue disease (BT) and African horse sickness (AHS) in southern Europe. The study of blood‐feeding patterns in Culicoides is an essential step towards understanding the epidemiology of these pathogens. Molecular tools that increase the accuracy and sensitivity of traditional methods have been developed to identify the hosts of potential insect vectors. However, to the present group's knowledge, molecular studies that identify the hosts of C. imicola in Europe are lacking. The present study genetically characterizes the barcoding region of C. imicola trapped on farms in southern Spain and identifies its vertebrate hosts in the area. The report also reviews available information on the blood‐feeding patterns of C. imicola worldwide. Culicoides imicola from Spain feed on blood of six mammals that include species known to be hosts of the BT and AHS viruses. This study provides evidence of the importance of livestock as sources of bloodmeals for C. imicola and the relevance of this species in the transmission of BT and AHS viruses in Europe.     

Colonization of the Mediterranean basin by the vector biting midge species Culicoides imicola: an old story

Understanding the demographic history and genetic make‐up of colonizing species is critical for inferring population sources and colonization routes. This is of main interest for designing accurate control measures in areas newly colonized by vector species of economically important pathogens. The biting midge Culicoides imicola is a major vector of orbiviruses to livestock. Historically, the distribution of this species was limited to the Afrotropical region. Entomological surveys first revealed the presence of C. imicola in the south of the Mediterranean basin by the 1970s. Following recurrent reports of massive bluetongue outbreaks since the 1990s, the presence of the species was confirmed in northern areas. In this study, we addressed the chronology and processes of C. imicola colonization in the Mediterranean basin. We characterized the genetic structure of its populations across Mediterranean and African regions using both mitochondrial and nuclear markers, and combined phylogeographical analyses with population genetics and approximate Bayesian computation. We found a west/east genetic differentiation between populations, occurring both within Africa and within the Mediterranean basin. We demonstrated that three of these groups had experienced demographic expansions in the Pleistocene, probably because of climate changes during this period. Finally, we showed that C. imicola could have colonized the Mediterranean basin in the Late Pleistocene or Early Holocene through a single event of introduction; however, we cannot exclude the hypothesis involving two routes of colonization. Thus, the recent bluetongue outbreaks are not linked to C. imicola colonization event, but rather to biological changes in the vector or the virus.     

Worldwide Niche and Future Potential Distribution of Culicoides imicola,a Major Vector of Bluetongue and African Horse Sickness Viruses

We modelled the ecoclimatic niche of Culicoides imicola, a major arthropod vector of midge-borne viral pathogens affecting ruminants and equids, at fine scale and on a global extent, so as to provide insight into current and future risks of disease epizootics, and increase current knowledge of the species'' ecology. Based on the known distribution and ecology of C. imicola, the species'' response to monthly climatic conditions was characterised using CLIMEX with 10′ spatial resolution climatic datasets. The species'' climatic niche was projected worldwide and under future climatic scenarios. The validated model highlights the role of irrigation in supporting the occurrence of C. imicola in arid regions. In Europe, the modelled potential distribution of C. imicola extended further West than its reported distribution, raising questions regarding ongoing process of colonization and non-climatic habitat factors. The CLIMEX model highlighted similar ecological niches for C. imicola and the Australasian C. brevitarsis raising questions on biogeography and biosecurity. Under the climate change scenarios considered, its'' modelled potential distribution could expand northward in the Northern hemisphere, whereas in Africa its range may contract in the future. The biosecurity risks from bluetongue and African horse sickness viruses need to be re-evaluated in regions where the vector''s niche is suitable. Under a warmer climate, the risk of vector-borne epizootic pathogens such as bluetongue and African horse sickness viruses are likely to increase as the climate suitability for C. imicola shifts poleward, especially in Western Europe.     

Rapid evolution of phenology during range expansion with recent climate change

Although climate warming is expected to make habitat beyond species’ current cold range edge suitable for future colonization, this new habitat may present an array of biotic or abiotic conditions not experienced within the current range. Species’ ability to shift their range with climate change may therefore depend on how populations evolve in response to such novel environmental conditions. However, due to the recent nature of thus far observed range expansions, the role of rapid adaptation during climate change migration is only beginning to be understood. Here, we evaluated evolution during the recent native range expansion of the annual plant Dittrichia graveolens, which is spreading northward in Europe from the Mediterranean region. We examined genetically based differentiation between core and edge populations in their phenology, a trait that is likely under selection with shorter growing seasons and greater seasonality at northern latitudes. In parallel common garden experiments at range edges in Switzerland and the Netherlands, we grew plants from Dutch, Swiss, and central and southern French populations. Population genetic analysis following RAD‐sequencing of these populations supported the hypothesized central France origins of the Swiss and Dutch range edge populations. We found that in both common gardens, northern plants flowered up to 4 weeks earlier than southern plants. This differentiation in phenology extended from the core of the range to the Netherlands, a region only reached from central France over approximately the last 50 years. Fitness decreased as plants flowered later, supporting the hypothesized benefits of earlier flowering at the range edge. Our results suggest that native range expanding populations can rapidly adapt to novel environmental conditions in the expanded range, potentially promoting their ability to spread.     

Deciphering the effect of climate warming on an emerging poplar pest using spatial extrapolation of population parameters

1. The woolly poplar aphid Phloeomyzus passerinii Signoret (Aphididae: Phloeomyzinae) is a major pest of poplar plantations. We hypothesized that recent temperature increases may have contributed to the emergence and subsequent northward expansion of outbreaks in France.
2. We reared P. passerinii at four temperatures to estimate its thermal requirements. We used experimental data to parametrize a mechanistic and temperature-driven physiologically-based demographic model. The model was used to simulate the effect of temperature on aphid dynamics and to assess the role of climate warming on the spatiotemporal dynamics of outbreaks.
3. The lower developmental threshold was estimated at 6.4 °C and the development degree-days at 171.
4. Our model supports the hypothesis that recent warming may have promoted outbreaks in northern France. During recent exceptionally warm years, more than 70% of the northern poplar area was favourable for outbreaks.
5. Our model suggests that climate warming is not the sole factor involved. The dominance of resistant poplar genotypes such as ‘Robusta’ or ‘Beaupré’ may have preserved plantations from outbreaks before 1996 in southern France and until 2000 in the central part. Other factors, including biological characteristics, biotic interactions, or precipitation should be investigated.

     

Genomic signature of successful colonization of Eurasia by the allopolyploid shepherd's purse (Capsella bursa‐pastoris)

Polyploidization is a dominant feature of flowering plant evolution. However, detailed genomic analyses of the interpopulation diversification of polyploids following genome duplication are still in their infancy, mainly because of methodological limits, both in terms of sequencing and computational analyses. The shepherd's purse (Capsella bursa‐pastoris) is one of the most common weed species in the world. It is highly self‐fertilizing, and recent genomic data indicate that it is an allopolyploid, resulting from hybridization between the ancestors of the diploid species Capsella grandiflora and Capsella orientalis. Here, we investigated the genomic diversity of C. bursa‐pastoris, its population structure and demographic history, following allopolyploidization in Eurasia. To that end, we genotyped 261 C. bursa‐pastoris accessions spread across Europe, the Middle East and Asia, using genotyping‐by‐sequencing, leading to a total of 4274 SNPs after quality control. Bayesian clustering analyses revealed three distinct genetic clusters in Eurasia: one cluster grouping samples from Western Europe and Southeastern Siberia, the second one centred on Eastern Asia and the third one in the Middle East. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) supported the hypothesis that C. bursa‐pastoris underwent a typical colonization history involving low gene flow among colonizing populations, likely starting from the Middle East towards Europe and followed by successive human‐mediated expansions into Eastern Asia. Altogether, these findings bring new insights into the recent multistage colonization history of the allotetraploid C. bursa‐pastoris and highlight ABC and genotyping‐by‐sequencing data as promising but still challenging tools to infer demographic histories of selfing allopolyploids.     

Investigating past range dynamics for a weed of cultivation,Silene vulgaris

Since the last glacial maximum (LGM), many plant and animal taxa have expanded their ranges by migration from glacial refugia. Weeds of cultivation may have followed this trend or spread globally following the expansion of agriculture or ruderal habitats associated with human‐mediated disturbance. We tested whether the range expansion of the weed Silene vulgaris across Europe fit the classical model of postglacial expansion from southern refugia, or followed known routes of the expansion of human agricultural practices. We used species distribution modeling to predict spatial patterns of postglacial expansion and contrasted these with the patterns of human agricultural expansion. A population genetic analysis using microsatellite loci was then used to test which scenario was better supported by spatial patterns of genetic diversity and structure. Genetic diversity was highest in southern Europe and declined with increasing latitude. Locations of ancestral demes from genetic cluster analysis were consistent with areas of predicted refugia. Species distribution models showed the most suitable habitat in the LGM on the southern coasts of Europe. These results support the typical postglacial northward colonization from southern refugia while refuting the east‐to‐west agricultural spread as the main mode of expansion for S. vulgaris. We know that S. vulgaris has recently colonized many regions (including North America and other continents) through human‐mediated dispersal, but there is no evidence for a direct link between the Neolithic expansion of agriculture and current patterns of genetic diversity of S. vulgaris in Europe. Therefore, the history of range expansion of S. vulgaris likely began with postglacial expansion after the LGM, followed by more recent global dispersal by humans.     

Phylogenetic relationships of the subgenus AvaritiaFox, 1955 including Culicoides obsoletus (Diptera, Ceratopogonidae) in Italy based on internal transcribed spacer 2 ribosomal DNA sequences

Abstract. Biting midges of the genus Culicoides include vector species for orbiviral diseases, such as bluetongue and African horse sickness. Although the Afro-Asiatic species C. imicola is the major vector of bluetongue in the Mediterranean basin, recent outbreaks in regions where C. imicola is absent has incriminated other Culicoides, including those belonging to the Obsoletus Complex of the subgenus Avaritia Fox, 1955. The classical taxonomy of this species complex is unclear and this stimulated the molecular analysis of twenty Culicoides populations sampled from eighteen localities across Italy. Ribosomal internal transcribed spacer 2 sequences were used to characterize the intra- and interspecific variation between Italian members of the Obsoletus Complex and related species, by means of an analysis of molecular variance and phylogenetic analyses. Although morphological differentiation is often extremely difficult, the molecular analysis clearly demonstrated a high degree of divergence between most species. The study showed that at least seven species of the subgenus Avaritia occur in Italy; these are C. obsoletus, C. scoticus, C. montanus, C. dewulfi, C. imicola and two species that could not be identified with certainty, but one of which is similar to C. chiopterus. Finally, a simple polymerase chain reaction assay was developed that rapidly discriminates between four members of the Obsoletus Complex in Italy, a prerequisite for vector identification.     

Population structure and gene flow in the global pest,Helicoverpa armigera

Helicoverpa armigera is a major agricultural pest that is distributed across Europe, Asia, Africa and Australasia. This species is hypothesized to have spread to the Americas 1.5 million years ago, founding a population that is at present, a distinct species, Helicoverpa zea. In 2013, H. armigera was confirmed to have re‐entered South America via Brazil and subsequently spread. The source of the recent incursion is unknown and population structure in H. armigera is poorly resolved, but a basic understanding would highlight potential biosecurity failures and determine the recent evolutionary history of region‐specific lineages. Here, we integrate several end points derived from high‐throughput sequencing to assess gene flow in H. armigera and H. zea from populations across six continents. We first assemble mitochondrial genomes to demonstrate the phylogenetic relationship of H. armigera with other Heliothine species and the lack of distinction between populations. We subsequently use de novo genotyping‐by‐sequencing and whole‐genome sequences aligned to bacterial artificial chromosomes, to assess levels of admixture. Primarily, we find that Brazilian H. armigera are derived from diverse source populations, with strong signals of gene flow from European populations, as well as prevalent signals of Asian and African ancestry. We also demonstrate a potential field‐caught hybrid between H. armigera and H. zea, and are able to provide genomic support for the presence of the H. armigera conferta subspecies in Australasia. While structure among the bulk of populations remains unresolved, we present distinctions that are pertinent to future investigations as well as to the biosecurity threat posed by H. armigera.     

Unravelling the invasion history of the Asian tiger mosquito in Europe

Multiple introductions are key features for the establishment and persistence of introduced species. However, little is known about the contribution of genetic admixture to the invasive potential of populations. To address this issue, we studied the recent invasion of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) in Europe. Combining genome‐wide single nucleotide polymorphisms and historical knowledge using an approximate Bayesian computation framework, we reconstruct the colonization routes and establish the demographic dynamics of invasion. The colonization of Europe involved at least three independent introductions in Albania, North Italy and Central Italy that subsequently acted as dispersal centres throughout Europe. We show that the topology of human transportation networks shaped demographic histories with North Italy and Central Italy being the main dispersal centres in Europe. Introduction modalities conditioned the levels of genetic diversity in invading populations, and genetically diverse and admixed populations promoted more secondary introductions and have spread farther than single‐source invasions. This genomic study provides further crucial insights into a general understanding of the role of genetic diversity promoted by modern trade in driving biological invasions.     

Development characteristics of the box‐tree moth Cydalima perspectalis and its potential distribution in Europe

The box‐tree moth Cydalima perspectalis (Walker) is an invasive pest causing severe damage to box trees (Buxus spp.). It is native to Japan, Korea and China, but established populations have been recorded in a number of locations across Europe since 2007 and the spread of the insect continues. The developmental investigations suggest that larvae overwinter mainly in their 3rd instar in Europe and that diapause is induced by a day length of about 13.5 h. One and a half to 2 months in the cold are necessary to terminate diapause. Threshold temperatures for development and number of degree‐days to complete a generation are slightly different from those calculated in previous studies in Japan. A bioclimatic (CLIMEX^®) model for C. perspectalis in Europe was developed, based on climate, ecological and developmental parameters from the literature and new field and laboratory studies on diapause termination, thermal requirements and phenology. The model was then validated with actual distribution records and phenology data. The current distribution and life history of C. perspectalis in Europe were consistent with the predicted distribution. The climate model suggests that C. perspectalis is likely to continue its spread across Europe, except for Northern Fenno‐Scandinavia, Northern Scotland and high mountain regions. The northern distribution of C. perspectalis is expected to be limited by a number of degree‐days above the temperature threshold insufficient to complete a generation, whereas its southern range is limited by the absence of a cold period necessary to resume diapause. The model predicts relatively high Ecoclimatic Indices throughout most of Europe, suggesting that the insect has the potential of becoming a pest in most of its predicted range. However, damage is likely to be higher in Southern and Central Europe where the moth is able to complete at least two generations per year.     

Genetic signature of a range expansion and leap‐frog event after the recent invasion of Europe by the grapevine downy mildew pathogen Plasmopara viticola

Biologic invasions can have important ecological, economic and social consequences, particularly when they involve the introduction and spread of plant invasive pathogens, as they can threaten natural ecosystems and jeopardize the production of human food. Examples include the grapevine downy mildew, caused by the oomycete Plasmopara viticola, an invasive species native to North America, introduced into Europe in the 1870s. We investigated the introduction and spread of this invasive pathogen, by analysing its genetic structure and diversity in a large sample from European vineyards. Populations of P. viticola across Europe displayed little genetic diversity, consistent with the occurrence of a bottleneck at the time of introduction. Bayesian coalescent analyses revealed a clear population expansion signal in the genetic data. We detected a weak, but significant, continental‐wide population structure, with two geographically and genetically distinct clusters in Western and Eastern European vineyards. Approximate Bayesian computation, analyses of clines of genetic diversity and of isolation‐by‐distance patterns provided evidence for a wave of colonization moving in an easterly direction across Europe. This is consistent with historical reports, first mentioning the introduction of the disease in Bordeaux vineyards (France) and sub‐sequently documenting its rapid spread across Europe. This initial introduction in the west was probably followed by a ‘leap‐frog’ event into Eastern Europe, leading to the formation of the two genetic clusters we detected. This study shows that recent population genetics methods within the Bayesian and coalescence frameworks are extremely powerful for increasing our understanding of pathogen population dynamics and invasion histories.     

Pike (Esox lucius) could have been an exclusive human introduction to Ireland after all: a comment on Pedreschi et al. (2014)

A recent publication (Pedreschi et al., 2014, Journal of Biogeography, 41 , 548–560) casts doubt over the status of pike (Esox lucius) as a non‐native species in Ireland by reporting two distinct genetic groups of pike present: one a human introduction in the Middle Ages, the other hypothesized to result from natural colonization after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). While the existence of two groups is not disputed, the hypothesized natural colonization scenario conflicts with the sequence in which the islands of Britain and Ireland became isolated from Europe after the LGM. An alternative natural colonization scenario raised herein was rejected, leaving an earlier, two‐phase, human introduction of pike from Britain or Europe to Ireland as a realistic alternative hypothesis explaining the results of Pedreschi et al. (2014). This leaves the debates on human introduction versus natural colonization, introduced versus native species status, and pike management in Ireland wide open.     

Evolutionary history of the European free-tailed bat,a tropical affinity species spanning across the Mediterranean Basin

The Mediterranean Basin is a global biodiversity hotspot, hosting a number of native species belonging to families that are found almost exclusively in tropical climates. Yet, whether or not these taxa were able to survive in the Mediterranean region during the Quaternary climatic oscillations remains unknown. Focusing on the European free-tailed bat (Tadarida teniotis), we aimed to (a) identify potential ancient populations and glacial refugia; (b) determine the post-glacial colonization routes across the Mediterranean; and (c) evaluate current population structure and demography. Mitochondrial and nuclear markers were used to understand T. teniotis evolutionary and demographic history. We show that T. teniotis is likely restricted to the Western Palearctic, with mitochondrial phylogeny suggesting a split between an Anatolian/Middle East clade and a European clade. Nuclear data pointed to three genetic populations, one of which is an isolated and highly differentiated group in the Canary Islands, another distributed across Iberia, Morocco, and France, and a third stretching from Italy to the east, with admixture following a pattern of isolation by distance. Evolutionary and demographic reconstruction supports a pre-Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) colonization of Italy and the Anatolian/Middle East, while the remaining populations were colonized from Italy after the Younger Dryas. We also found support for demographic expansion following the Iberian colonization. The results show that during the LGM T. teniotis persisted in Mediterranean refugia and has subsequently expanded to its current circum-Mediterranean range. Our findings raise questions regarding the physiological and ecological traits that enabled species with tropical affinities to survive in colder climates.     

Using genetic variation to infer associations with climate in the common frog,Rana temporaria

Recent and historical species' associations with climate can be inferred using molecular markers. This knowledge of population and species‐level responses to climatic variables can then be used to predict the potential consequences of ongoing climate change. The aim of this study was to predict responses of Rana temporaria to environmental change in Scotland by inferring historical and contemporary patterns of gene flow in relation to current variation in local thermal conditions. We first inferred colonization patterns within Europe following the last glacial maximum by combining new and previously published mitochondrial DNA sequences. We found that sequences from our Scottish samples were identical to (92%), or clustered with, the common haplotype previously identified from Western Europe. This clade showed very low mitochondrial variation, which did not allow inference of historical colonization routes but did allow interpretation of patterns of current fine‐scale population structure without consideration of confounding historical variation. Second, we assessed fine‐scale microsatellite‐based patterns of genetic variation in relation to current altitudinal temperature gradients. No population structure was found within altitudinal gradients (average F_ST = 0.02), despite a mean annual temperature difference of 4.5 °C between low‐ and high‐altitude sites. Levels of genetic diversity were considerable and did not vary between sites. The panmictic population structure observed, even along temperature gradients, is a potentially positive sign for R. temporaria persistence in Scotland in the face of a changing climate. This study demonstrates that within taxonomic groups, thought to be at high risk from environmental change, levels of vulnerability can vary, even within species.     

Climate‐driven changes to the spatio‐temporal distribution of the parasitic nematode,Haemonchus contortus,in sheep in Europe

Recent climate change has resulted in changes to the phenology and distribution of invertebrates worldwide. Where invertebrates are associated with disease, climate variability and changes in climate may also affect the spatio‐temporal dynamics of disease. Due to its significant impact on sheep production and welfare, the recent increase in diagnoses of ovine haemonchosis caused by the nematode Haemonchus contortus in some temperate regions is particularly concerning. This study is the first to evaluate the impact of climate change on H. contortus at a continental scale. A model of the basic reproductive quotient of macroparasites, Q₀, adapted to H. contortus and extended to incorporate environmental stochasticity and parasite behaviour, was used to simulate Pan‐European spatio‐temporal changes in H. contortus infection pressure under scenarios of climate change. Baseline Q₀ simulations, using historic climate observations, reflected the current distribution of H. contortus in Europe. In northern Europe, the distribution of H. contortus is currently limited by temperatures falling below the development threshold during the winter months and within‐host arrested development is necessary for population persistence over winter. In southern Europe, H. contortus infection pressure is limited during the summer months by increased temperature and decreased moisture. Compared with this baseline, Q₀ simulations driven by a climate model ensemble predicted an increase in H. contortus infection pressure by the 2080s. In northern Europe, a temporal range expansion was predicted as the mean period of transmission increased by 2–3 months. A bimodal seasonal pattern of infection pressure, similar to that currently observed in southern Europe, emerges in northern Europe due to increasing summer temperatures and decreasing moisture. The predicted patterns of change could alter the epidemiology of H. contortus in Europe, affect the future sustainability of contemporary control strategies, and potentially drive local adaptation to climate change in parasite populations.     

Phylogeny of European Pyrochroa (Coleoptera,Pyrochroidae) reveals cryptic taxa and different glacial histories

Only three saproxylic species of Pyrochroinae (Coleoptera: Pyrochroidae) are distributed in Europe, two of which belonging to Pyrochroa: P. coccinea and P. serraticornis. However, P. serraticornis is polytypic, for the presence of the endemic subspecies P. s. kiesenwetteri in southern Italy. Using both molecular and morphological data, we explored the phylogeny of the European Pyrochroa species. A multilocus (COI, CAD, 28S) phylogenetic analysis helped highlight different evolutionary histories for the two examined species. First, P. coccinea, distributed throughout Europe, showed a high differentiation among Italian and European populations. Furthermore, three different taxonomic entities were identified within P. serraticornis, among which the cryptic species Pyrochroa bifoveata sp. n. from central Europe is described and illustrated. A comprehensive identification key to the European Pyrochroinae is also provided. Our results also suggested an historical survival of P. coccinea and P. s. kiesenwetteri in glacial refugia in Italy, and a subsequent post-glacial spread of the former species throughout the Peninsula. In contrast, the current distribution of P. s. serraticornis likely originated from a post-glacial colonization of western European relict populations, while the survival of P. bifoveata plausibly occurred in more eastern glacial refugia (e.g. Carpathian or Balkan regions). Similarly, the European populations of P. coccinea could have originated from relict populations in glacial refugia out from the Italian Peninsula. More comprehensive data on the taxonomy, ecology and biogeography of Pyrochroa are needed to learn more about these species and to help preserve the European saproxylic fauna.     

Climate change and the recent emergence of bluetongue in Europe

Bluetongue, a devastating disease of ruminants, has historically made only brief, sporadic incursions into the fringes of Europe. However, since 1998, six strains of bluetongue virus have spread across 12 countries and 800 km further north in Europe than has previously been reported. We suggest that this spread has been driven by recent changes in European climate that have allowed increased virus persistence during winter, the northward expansion of Culicoides imicola, the main bluetongue virus vector, and, beyond this vector's range, transmission by indigenous European Culicoides species - thereby expanding the risk of transmission over larger geographical regions. Understanding this sequence of events may help us predict the emergence of other vector-borne pathogens.     

Predicting the effects of climate change on population connectivity and genetic diversity of an imperiled freshwater mussel,Cumberlandia monodonta (Bivalvia: Margaritiferidae), in riverine systems

In the face of global climate change, organisms may respond to temperature increases by shifting their ranges poleward or to higher altitudes. However, the direction of range shifts in riverine systems is less clear. Because rivers are dendritic networks, there is only one dispersal route from any given location to another. Thus, range shifts are only possible if branches are connected by suitable habitat, and stream‐dwelling organisms can disperse through these branches. We used Cumberlandia monodonta (Bivalvia: Unionoida: Margaritiferidae) as a model species to investigate the effects of climate change on population connectivity because a majority of contemporary populations are panmictic. We combined ecological niche models (ENMs) with population genetic simulations to investigate the effects of climate change on population connectivity and genetic diversity of C. monodonta. The ENMs were constructed using bioclimatic and landscape data to project shifts in suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. We then used forward‐time simulations to project potential changes in genetic diversity and population connectivity based on these range shifts. ENM results under current conditions indicated long stretches of highly suitable habitat in rivers where C. monodonta persists; populations in the upper Mississippi River remain connected by suitable habitat that does not impede gene flow. Future climate scenarios projected northward and headwater‐ward range contraction and drastic declines in habitat suitability for most extant populations throughout the Mississippi River Basin. Simulations indicated that climate change would greatly reduce genetic diversity and connectivity across populations. Results suggest that a single, large population of C. monodonta will become further fragmented into smaller populations, each of which will be isolated and begin to differentiate genetically. Because C. monodonta is a widely distributed species and purely aquatic, our results suggest that persistence and connectivity of stream‐dwelling organisms will be significantly altered in response to future climate change.