Are Antarctic minke whales unusually abundant because of 20th century whaling?

Severe declines in megafauna worldwide illuminate the role of top predators in ecosystem structure. In the Antarctic, the Krill Surplus Hypothesis posits that the killing of more than 2 million large whales led to competitive release for smaller krill‐eating species like the Antarctic minke whale. If true, the current size of the Antarctic minke whale population may be unusually high as an indirect result of whaling. Here, we estimate the long‐term population size of the Antarctic minke whale prior to whaling by sequencing 11 nuclear genetic markers from 52 modern samples purchased in Japanese meat markets. We use coalescent simulations to explore the potential influence of population substructure and find that even though our samples are drawn from a limited geographic area, our estimate reflects ocean‐wide genetic diversity. Using Bayesian estimates of the mutation rate and coalescent‐based analyses of genetic diversity across loci, we calculate the long‐term population size of the Antarctic minke whale to be 670 000 individuals (95% confidence interval: 374 000–1 150 000). Our estimate of long‐term abundance is similar to, or greater than, contemporary abundance estimates, suggesting that managing Antarctic ecosystems under the assumption that Antarctic minke whales are unusually abundant is not warranted.     

Temporal change in genetic structure and effective population size in steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss)

There is a wealth of published molecular population genetic studies, however, most do not include historic samples and thus implicitly assume temporal genetic stability. We tested for changes in genetic diversity and structure in three populations of steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) from a northern British Columbia watershed using seven microsatellite loci over 40 years. We found little change in genetic diversity (mean allele numbers and observed and expected heterozygosity), despite large variation in the estimated numbers of steelhead returning to the watershed over the same time period. However, the temporal stability in genetic diversity is not reflected in population structure, which appears to be high among populations, yet significantly variable over time. The neighbour-joining tree showed that, overall, two of the populations (Zymoetz and Kispiox) clustered separately from the third (Babine); a finding which was not consistent with their geographical separation. The clustering pattern was also not temporally consistent. We used the temporal method to estimate the effective number of breeders (Nb ) for the three populations; our values (Nb = 17-102) were low for the large and presumed vigorous populations of steelhead trout sampled. The low Nb values were also not consistent with the generally high genetic diversity estimates, suggesting the possibility of intermittent gene flow among the three populations. The use of temporal analyses in population genetic samples should be a priority; first, to verify observed patterns in contemporary data, and second, to build a dataset of temporal analyses to allow generalizations to be made concerning temporal genetic stability and effective population size in natural populations.     

Is genomic diversity a useful proxy for census population size? Evidence from a species‐rich community of desert lizards

Species abundance data are critical for testing ecological theory, but obtaining accurate empirical estimates for many taxa is challenging. Proxies for species abundance can help researchers circumvent time and cost constraints that are prohibitive for long‐term sampling. Under simple demographic models, genetic diversity is expected to correlate with census size, such that genome‐wide heterozygosity may provide a surrogate measure of species abundance. We tested whether nucleotide diversity is correlated with long‐term estimates of abundance, occupancy and degree of ecological specialization in a diverse lizard community from arid Australia. Using targeted sequence capture, we obtained estimates of genomic diversity from 30 species of lizards, recovering an average of 5,066 loci covering 3.6 Mb of DNA sequence per individual. We compared measures of individual heterozygosity to a metric of habitat specialization to investigate whether ecological preference exerts a measurable effect on genetic diversity. We find that heterozygosity is significantly correlated with species abundance and occupancy, but not habitat specialization. Demonstrating the power of genomic sampling, the correlation between heterozygosity and abundance/occupancy emerged from considering just one or two individuals per species. However, genetic diversity does no better at predicting abundance than a single day of traditional sampling in this community. We conclude that genetic diversity is a useful proxy for regional‐scale species abundance and occupancy, but a large amount of unexplained variation in heterozygosity suggests additional constraints or a failure of ecological sampling to adequately capture variation in true population size.     

Considering sampling bias in close‐kin mark–recapture abundance estimates of Atlantic salmon

Genetic methods for the estimation of population size can be powerful alternatives to conventional methods. Close‐kin mark–recapture (CKMR) is based on the principles of conventional mark–recapture, but instead of being physically marked, individuals are marked through their close kin. The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential of CKMR for the estimation of spawner abundance in Atlantic salmon and how age, sex, spatial, and temporal sampling bias may affect CKMR estimates. Spawner abundance in a wild population was estimated from genetic samples of adults returning in 2018 and of their potential offspring collected in 2019. Adult samples were obtained in two ways. First, adults were sampled and released alive in the breeding habitat during spawning surveys. Second, genetic samples were collected from out‐migrating smolts PIT‐tagged in 2017 and registered when returning as adults in 2018. CKMR estimates based on adult samples collected during spawning surveys were somewhat higher than conventional counts. Uncertainty was small (CV < 0.15), due to the detection of a high number of parent–offspring pairs. Sampling of adults was age‐ and size‐biased and correction for those biases resulted in moderate changes in the CKMR estimate. Juvenile dispersal was limited, but spatially balanced sampling of adults rendered CKMR estimates robust to spatially biased sampling of juveniles. CKMR estimates based on returning PIT‐tagged adults were approximately twice as high as estimates based on samples collected during spawning surveys. We suggest that estimates based on PIT‐tagged fish reflect the total abundance of adults entering the river, while estimates based on samples collected during spawning surveys reflect the abundance of adults present in the breeding habitat at the time of spawning. Our study showed that CKMR can be used to estimate spawner abundance in Atlantic salmon, with a moderate sampling effort, but a carefully designed sampling regime is required.     

Fragmentation by weirs in a riverine system: A study of genetic variation in time and space among populations of European grayling (Thymallus thymallus) in a Danish river system

Human induced habitat alterations affect the genetic structure of many fish populations. Weirs in particular have caused fragmented populations previously connected by gene-flow. We studied the effects of weirs on the distribution of genetic variation within European grayling (Thymallus thymallus) populations from the Skjern River, Denmark. We compared microsatellite data from DNA extracted from historic scale samples collected 60 years ago with data from contemporary samples. Pairwise multilocus F _ST estimates between all contemporary population samples were significant as well as exact tests for population differentiation. Assignment tests of individuals to a set of baseline samples showed correct assignment to the population of origin of between 54 and 79%. Assignment of individuals from recent samples to the historic population samples showed highly variable results (3–83%) of correct assignment suggesting different population histories. Pairwise multilocus F _ST estimates were significantly correlated with the number of intervening weirs but not with waterway distance. A simulation procedure was used to estimate differences in relative population sizes, which indicated that the main river population was approximately three times larger than those of the tributaries. There were no signs of any loss of genetic variation for the river system as a whole during these 60 years. The results show that weirs can be an important factor for creating the current distribution patterns of genetic variation among grayling populations, most likely by only allowing passive downstream drift of fry and obstructing active upstream migration. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Contrasting demographic and genetic estimates of dispersal in the endangered Coahuilan box turtle: a contemporary approach to conservation

The evolutionary viability of an endangered species depends upon gene flow among subpopulations and the degree of habitat patch connectivity. Contrasting population connectivity over ecological and evolutionary timescales may provide novel insight into what maintains genetic diversity within threatened species. We employed this integrative approach to evaluating dispersal in the critically endangered Coahuilan box turtle (Terrapene coahuila) that inhabits isolated wetlands in the desert‐spring ecosystem of Cuatro Ciénegas, Mexico. Recent wetland habitat loss has altered the spatial distribution and connectivity of habitat patches; and we therefore predicted that T. coahuila would exhibit limited movement relative to estimates of historic gene flow. To evaluate contemporary dispersal patterns, we employed mark–recapture techniques at both local (wetland complex) and regional (intercomplex) spatial scales. Gene flow estimates were obtained by surveying genetic variation at nine microsatellite loci in seven subpopulations located across the species’ geographical range. The mark–recapture results at the local spatial scale reveal frequent movement among wetlands that was unaffected by interwetland distance. At the regional spatial scale, dispersal events were relatively less frequent between wetland complexes. The complementary analysis of population genetic substructure indicates strong historic gene flow (global F_ST = 0.01). However, a relationship of genetic isolation by distance across the geographical range suggests that dispersal limitation exists at the regional scale. Our approach of contrasting direct and indirect estimates of dispersal at multiple spatial scales in T. coahuila conveys a sustainable evolutionary trajectory of the species pending preservation of threatened wetland habitats and a range‐wide network of corridors.     

A species in decline: genetic diversity and conservation of the Victorian eastern barred bandicoot, Perameles gunnii

The eastern barred bandicoot, Perameles gunnii, has undergone a dramatic decline in distribution and abundance on the mainland of Australia during the twentieth century. In 1988 a captive breeding program was initiated to reduce the chance of extinction. With the extinction of the last wild mainland population in the early 1990s, reintroductions from captive-bred P. gunnii have met limited success, and currently only two extant populations persist in predator proof enclosures in the State of Victoria. With ~20 years of breeding, there are concerns that the genetic diversity within the breeding program has declined and may inhibit current and future success of the program. We have used ten nuclear microsatellite loci and sequencing of two partial mitochondrial genes (cytochrome oxidase I and ATPase 6) to determine genetic diversity within current Victorian P. gunnii. These diversity estimates are compared with historic samples from the captive breeding program dating back to 1995, historic samples from the last wild mainland population found at Hamilton in 1992 and contemporary Tasmanian wild populations. Results indicate that the captive P. gunnii population in the State of Victoria has lost significant genetic diversity through time. Genetic diversity is also reduced in populations at Hamilton Community Parklands and Mount Rothwell. Samples from the last wild population at Hamilton collected in 1992, along with samples from Tasmanian P. gunnii, had significantly greater genetic diversity than contemporary mainland populations. The results are discussed with reference to management options for maintaining genetic diversity within Victorian P. gunnii, including crossing Victorian and Tasmanian P. gunnii to increase genetic diversity, adaptability and evolutionary potential.     

Pre-whaling genetic diversity and population ecology in eastern Pacific gray whales: insights from ancient DNA and stable isotopes

Commercial whaling decimated many whale populations, including the eastern Pacific gray whale, but little is known about how population dynamics or ecology differed prior to these removals. Of particular interest is the possibility of a large population decline prior to whaling, as such a decline could explain the ~5-fold difference between genetic estimates of prior abundance and estimates based on historical records. We analyzed genetic (mitochondrial control region) and isotopic information from modern and prehistoric gray whales using serial coalescent simulations and Bayesian skyline analyses to test for a pre-whaling decline and to examine prehistoric genetic diversity, population dynamics and ecology. Simulations demonstrate that significant genetic differences observed between ancient and modern samples could be caused by a large, recent population bottleneck, roughly concurrent with commercial whaling. Stable isotopes show minimal differences between modern and ancient gray whale foraging ecology. Using rejection-based Approximate Bayesian Computation, we estimate the size of the population bottleneck at its minimum abundance and the pre-bottleneck abundance. Our results agree with previous genetic studies suggesting the historical size of the eastern gray whale population was roughly three to five times its current size.     

Census vs. effective population size in chinook salmon: large- and small-scale environmental perturbation effects

Population viability has often been assessed by census of reproducing adults. Recently this method has been called into question and estimation of the effective population size (Ne) proposed as a complementary method to determine population health. We examined genetic diversity in five populations of chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) from the upper Fraser River watershed (British Columbia, Canada) at 11 microsatellite loci over 20 years using DNA extracted from archived scale samples. We tested for changes in genetic diversity, calculated the ratio of the number of alleles to the range in allele size to give the statistic M, calculated Ne from the temporal change in allele frequency, used the maximum likelihood method to calculate effective population size (NeM), calculated the harmonic mean of population size, and compared these statistics to annual census estimates. Over the last two decades population size has increased in all five populations of chinook examined; however, Ne calculated for each population was low (81-691) and decreasing over the time interval measured. Values of NeM were low, but substantially higher than Ne calculated using the temporal method. The calculated values for M were generally low (M < 0.70), indicating recent population reductions for all five populations. Large-scale historic barriers to migration and development activities do not appear to account for the low values of Ne; however, available spawning area is positively correlated with Ne. Both Ne and M estimates indicate that these populations are potentially susceptible to inbreeding effects and may lack the ability to respond adaptively to stochastic events. Our findings question the practice of relying exclusively on census estimates for interpreting population health and show the importance of determining genetic diversity within populations.     

A range-wide genetic bottleneck overwhelms contemporary landscape factors and local abundance in shaping genetic patterns of an alpine butterfly (Lepidoptera: Pieridae: Colias behrii)

Spatial and environmental heterogeneity are major factors in structuring species distributions in alpine landscapes. These landscapes have also been affected by glacial advances and retreats, causing alpine taxa to undergo range shifts and demographic changes. These nonequilibrium population dynamics have the potential to obscure the effects of environmental factors on the distribution of genetic variation. Here, we investigate how demographic change and environmental factors influence genetic variation in the alpine butterfly Colias behrii. Data from 14 microsatellite loci provide evidence of bottlenecks in all population samples. We test several alternative models of demography using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), with the results favouring a model in which a recent bottleneck precedes rapid population growth. Applying independent calibrations to microsatellite loci and a nuclear gene, we estimate that this bottleneck affected both northern and southern populations 531–281 years ago, coinciding with a period of global cooling. Using regression approaches, we attempt to separate the effects of population structure, geographical distance and landscape on patterns of population genetic differentiation. Only 40% of the variation in F_ST is explained by these models, with geographical distance and least‐cost distance among meadow patches selected as the best predictors. Various measures of genetic diversity within populations are also decoupled from estimates of local abundance and habitat patch characteristics. Our results demonstrate that demographic change can have a disproportionate influence on genetic diversity in alpine species, contrasting with other studies that suggest landscape features control contemporary demographic processes in high‐elevation environments.     

Population size estimates based on the frequency of genetically assigned parent–offspring pairs within a subsample

Estimating population density as precise as possible is a key premise for managing wild animal species. This can be a challenging task if the species in question is elusive or, due to high quantities, hard to count. We present a new, mathematically derived estimator for population size, where the estimation is based solely on the frequency of genetically assigned parent–offspring pairs within a subsample of an ungulate population. By use of molecular markers like microsatellites, the number of these parent–offspring pairs can be determined. The study's aim was to clarify whether a classical capture–mark–recapture (CMR) method can be adapted or extended by this genetic element to a genetic‐based capture–mark–recapture (g‐CMR). We numerically validate the presented estimator (and corresponding variance estimates) and provide the R‐code for the computation of estimates of population size including confidence intervals. The presented method provides a new framework to precisely estimate population size based on the genetic analysis of a one‐time subsample. This is especially of value where traditional CMR methods or other DNA‐based (fecal or hair) capture–recapture methods fail or are too difficult to apply. The DNA source used is basically irrelevant, but in the present case the sampling of an annual hunting bag is to serve as data basis. In addition to the high quality of muscle tissue samples, hunting bags provide additional and essential information for wildlife management practices, such as age, weight, or sex. In cases where a g‐CMR method is ecologically and hunting‐wise appropriate, it enables a wide applicability, also through its species‐independent use.     

Long-term population size of the North Atlantic humpback whale within the context of worldwide population structure

Once hunted to the brink of extinction, humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in the North Atlantic have recently been increasing in numbers. However, uncertain information on past abundance makes it difficult to assess the extent of the recovery in this species. While estimates of pre-exploitation abundance based upon catch data suggest the population might be approaching pre-whaling numbers, estimates based on mtDNA genetic diversity suggest they are still only a fraction of their past abundance levels. The difference between the two estimates could be accounted for by inaccuracies in the catch record, by uncertainties surrounding the genetic estimate, or by differences in the timescale to which the two estimates apply. Here we report an estimate of long-term population size based on nuclear gene diversity. We increase the reliability of our genetic estimate by increasing the number of loci, incorporating uncertainty in each parameter and increasing sampling across the geographic range. We report an estimate of long-term population size in the North Atlantic humpback of ~112,000 individuals (95 % CI 45,000–235,000). This value is 2–3 fold higher than estimates based upon catch data. This persistent difference between estimates parallels difficulties encountered by population models in explaining the historical crash of North Atlantic humpback whales. The remaining discrepancy between genetic and catch-record values, and the failure of population models, highlights a need for continued evaluation of whale population growth and shifts over time, and continued caution about changing the conservation status of this population.     

Reconstructing the evolutionary history of an endangered subspecies across the changing landscape of the Great Central Valley of California

Identifying historic patterns of population genetic diversity and connectivity is a primary challenge in efforts to re‐establish the processes that have generated and maintained genetic variation across natural landscapes. The challenge of reconstructing pattern and process is even greater in highly altered landscapes where population extinctions and dramatic demographic fluctuations in remnant populations may have substantially altered, if not eliminated, historic patterns. Here, we seek to reconstruct historic patterns of diversity and connectivity in an endangered subspecies of woodrat that now occupies only 1–2 remnant locations within the highly altered landscape of the Great Central Valley of California. We examine patterns of diversity and connectivity using 14 microsatellite loci and sequence data from a mitochondrial locus and a nuclear intron. We reconstruct temporal change in habitat availability to establish several historical scenarios that could have led to contemporary patterns of diversity, and use an approximate Bayesian computation approach to test which of these scenarios is most consistent with our observed data. We find that the Central Valley populations harbour unique genetic variation coupled with a history of admixture between two well‐differentiated species of woodrats that are currently restricted to the woodlands flanking the Valley. Our simulations also show that certain commonly used analytical approaches may fail to recover a history of admixture when populations experience severe bottlenecks subsequent to hybridization. Overall our study shows the strength of combining empirical and simulation analyses to recover the history of populations occupying highly altered landscapes.     

Spatiotemporal analysis of gene flow in Chesapeake Bay Diamondback Terrapins (Malaclemys terrapin)

There is widespread concern regarding the impacts of anthropogenic activities on connectivity among populations of plants and animals, and understanding how contemporary and historical processes shape metapopulation dynamics is crucial for setting appropriate conservation targets. We used genetic data to identify population clusters and quantify gene flow over historical and contemporary time frames in the Diamondback Terrapin (Malaclemys terrapin). This species has a long and complicated history with humans, including commercial overharvesting and subsequent translocation events during the early twentieth century. Today, terrapins face threats from habitat loss and mortality in fisheries bycatch. To evaluate population structure and gene flow among Diamondback Terrapin populations in the Chesapeake Bay region, we sampled 617 individuals from 15 localities and screened individuals at 12 polymorphic microsatellite loci. Our goals were to demarcate metapopulation structure, quantify genetic diversity, estimate effective population sizes, and document temporal changes in gene flow. We found that terrapins in the Chesapeake Bay region harbour high levels of genetic diversity and form four populations. Effective population sizes were variable. Among most population comparisons, estimates of historical and contemporary terrapin gene flow were generally low (m ≈ 0.01). However, we detected a substantial increase in contemporary gene flow into Chesapeake Bay from populations outside the bay, as well as between two populations within Chesapeake Bay, possibly as a consequence of translocations during the early twentieth century. Our study shows that inferences across multiple time scales are needed to evaluate population connectivity, especially as recent changes may identify threats to population persistence.     

Stability of population structure and genetic diversity across generations assessed by microsatellites among sympatric populations of landlocked Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.)

It may often be necessary to perform genetic analyses of temporal replicates to estimate the significance of spatial variation independently from that of temporal variation in order to ensure the reliability of estimates of a defined population structure. Nevertheless, temporal studies of genetic diversity remain scarce in the literature relative to the plethora of empirical studies of population structure. In vertebrates, a limited number of studies have specifically assessed the temporal stability of population structure for more than one generation. In this study, we performed a microsatellite analysis of DNA obtained from archived scales to compare the population structure among four sympatric landlocked populations of Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ) over a time frame of three to five generations. The same patterns of allele frequency distribution, θ, R _ST and genetic distance estimates were observed among populations for two time periods, confirming the temporal stability of the population structure. Despite population declines and stocking during this period, no statistically significant changes in intrapopulation genetic diversity were apparent. This study illustrates the feasibility and usefulness of microsatellite analysis of temporal samples, not only to infer changes of intrapopulation genetic diversity, but also to assess the stability of population structure over a time frame of several generations.     

State–space mark–recapture estimates reveal a recent decline in abundance of North Atlantic right whales

North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis Müller 1776) present an interesting problem for abundance and trend estimation in marine wildlife conservation. They are long lived, individually identifiable, highly mobile, and one of the rarest of cetaceans. Individuals are annually resighted at different rates, primarily due to varying stay durations among several principal habitats within a large geographic range. To date, characterizations of abundance have been produced that use simple accounting procedures with differing assumptions about mortality. To better characterize changing abundance of North Atlantic right whales between 1990 and 2015, we adapted a state–space formulation with Jolly‐Seber assumptions about population entry (birth and immigration) to individual resighting histories and fit it using empirical Bayes methodology. This hierarchical model included accommodation for the effect of the substantial individual capture heterogeneity. Estimates from this approach were only slightly higher than published accounting procedures, except for the most recent years (when recapture rates had declined substantially). North Atlantic right whales' abundance increased at about 2.8% per annum from median point estimates of 270 individuals in 1990 to 483 in 2010, and then declined to 2015, when the final estimate was 458 individuals (95% credible intervals 444–471). The probability that the population's trajectory post‐2010 was a decline was estimated at 99.99%. Of special concern was the finding that reduced survival rates of adult females relative to adult males have produced diverging abundance trends between sexes. Despite constraints in recent years, both biological (whales' distribution changing) and logistical (fewer resources available to collect individual photo‐identifications), it is still possible to detect this relatively recent, small change in the population's trajectory. This is thanks to the massive dataset of individual North Atlantic right whale identifications accrued over the past three decades. Photo‐identification data provide biological information that allows more informed inference on the status of this species.     

Genomic distribution and estimation of nucleotide diversity in natural populations: perspectives from the collared flycatcher (Ficedula albicollis) genome

Properly estimating genetic diversity in populations of nonmodel species requires a basic understanding of how diversity is distributed across the genome and among individuals. To this end, we analysed whole‐genome resequencing data from 20 collared flycatchers (genome size ≈1.1 Gb; 10.13 million single nucleotide polymorphisms detected). Genomewide nucleotide diversity was almost identical among individuals (mean = 0.00394, range = 0.00384–0.00401), but diversity levels varied extensively across the genome (95% confidence interval for 200‐kb windows = 0.0013–0.0053). Diversity was related to selective constraint such that in comparison with intergenic DNA, diversity at fourfold degenerate sites was reduced to 85%, 3′ UTRs to 82%, 5′ UTRs to 70% and nondegenerate sites to 12%. There was a strong positive correlation between diversity and chromosome size, probably driven by a higher density of targets for selection on smaller chromosomes increasing the diversity‐reducing effect of linked selection. Simulations exploring the ability of sequence data from a small number of genetic markers to capture the observed diversity clearly demonstrated that diversity estimation from finite sampling of such data is bound to be associated with large confidence intervals. Nevertheless, we show that precision in diversity estimation in large outbred population benefits from increasing the number of loci rather than the number of individuals. Simulations mimicking RAD sequencing showed that this approach gives accurate estimates of genomewide diversity. Based on the patterns of observed diversity and the performed simulations, we provide broad recommendations for how genetic diversity should be estimated in natural populations.     

Temporal and spatial analyses disclose consequences of habitat fragmentation on the genetic diversity in capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus)

As a result of habitat fragmentation, the capercaillie ( Tetrao urogallus ) population in the Black Forest mountain range in southwestern Germany has declined rapidly during the last decades and now persists in patchy isolated fragments. To study the effects of fragmentation, we quantified dispersal patterns by genotyping 213 individuals in four subpopulations. We used a landscape genetics approach to analyse individual genetic variation, and despite overall low genetic structure, we found strong indications for a major boundary separating the northern part of the Black Forest area from the other subpopulations. Males and females display different gene flow patterns across the landscape. Females tend to disperse across longer distances than do males. We additionally studied the effects of the population decline on genetic diversity during the last hundred years. Although the population has dramatically declined from over 4000 to 250 males over a few decades, genetic diversity was not affected in the same way. We found two haplotypes that were present only in historic samples but microsatellite markers revealed no significant reduction in genetic diversity. Among historic samples, genetic differentiation was very low, indicating that the current genetic structure is caused by recent habitat fragmentation. We argue that inferences about reduced genetic diversity are drawn cautiously and recommend sampling over different temporal scales.     

A landscape genetics approach for quantifying the relative influence of historic and contemporary habitat heterogeneity on the genetic connectivity of a rainforest bird

Landscape genetics is an important framework for investigating the influence of spatial pattern on ecological process. Nevertheless, the standard analytic frameworks in landscape genetics have difficulty evaluating hypotheses about spatial processes in dynamic landscapes. We use a predictive hypothesis-driven approach to quantify the relative contribution of historic and contemporary processes to genetic connectivity. By confronting genetic data with models of historic and contemporary landscapes, we identify dispersal processes operating in naturally heterogeneous and human-altered systems. We demonstrate the approach using a case study of microsatellite polymorphism and indirect estimates of gene flow for a rainforest bird, the logrunner ( Orthonyx temminckii ). Of particular interest was how much information in the genetic data was attributable to processes occurring in the reconstructed historic landscape and contemporary human-modified landscape. A linear mixed model was used to estimate appropriate sampling variance from nonindependent data and information-theoretic model selection provided strength of evidence for alternative hypotheses. The contemporary landscape explained slightly more information in the genetic differentiation data than the historic landscape, and there was considerable evidence for a temporal shift in dispersal pattern. In contrast, migration rates estimated from genealogical information were primarily influenced by contemporary landscape change. We discovered that landscape heterogeneity facilitated gene flow before European settlement, but contemporary deforestation is rapidly becoming the most important barrier to logrunner dispersal.     

Inferences about population dynamics from count data using multistate models: a comparison to capture–recapture approaches

Wildlife populations consist of individuals that contribute disproportionately to growth and viability. Understanding a population's spatial and temporal dynamics requires estimates of abundance and demographic rates that account for this heterogeneity. Estimating these quantities can be difficult, requiring years of intensive data collection. Often, this is accomplished through the capture and recapture of individual animals, which is generally only feasible at a limited number of locations. In contrast, N‐mixture models allow for the estimation of abundance, and spatial variation in abundance, from count data alone. We extend recently developed multistate, open population N‐mixture models, which can additionally estimate demographic rates based on an organism's life history characteristics. In our extension, we develop an approach to account for the case where not all individuals can be assigned to a state during sampling. Using only state‐specific count data, we show how our model can be used to estimate local population abundance, as well as density‐dependent recruitment rates and state‐specific survival. We apply our model to a population of black‐throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens) that have been surveyed for 25 years on their breeding grounds at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA. The intensive data collection efforts allow us to compare our estimates to estimates derived from capture–recapture data. Our model performed well in estimating population abundance and density‐dependent rates of annual recruitment/immigration. Estimates of local carrying capacity and per capita recruitment of yearlings were consistent with those published in other studies. However, our model moderately underestimated annual survival probability of yearling and adult females and severely underestimates survival probabilities for both of these male stages. The most accurate and precise estimates will necessarily require some amount of intensive data collection efforts (such as capture–recapture). Integrated population models that combine data from both intensive and extensive sources are likely to be the most efficient approach for estimating demographic rates at large spatial and temporal scales.