HOW DOES POLLEN VERSUS SEED DISPERSAL AFFECT NICHE EVOLUTION?

In heterogeneous landscapes, the genetic and demographic consequences of dispersal influence the evolution of niche width. Unless pollen is limiting, pollen dispersal does not contribute directly to population growth. However, by disrupting local adaptation, it indirectly affects population dynamics. We compare the effect of pollen versus seed dispersal on the evolution of niche width in heterogeneous habitats, explicitly considering the feedback between maladaptation and demography. We consider two scenarios: the secondary contact of two subpopulations, in distinct, formerly isolated habitats, and the colonization of an empty habitat with dispersal between the new and ancestral habitat. With an analytical model, we identify critical levels of genetic variance leading to niche contraction (secondary contact scenario), or expansion (new habitat scenario). We confront these predictions with simulations where the genetic variance freely evolves. Niche contraction occurs when habitats are very different. It is faster as total gene flow increases or as pollen predominates in overall gene flow. Niche expansion occurs when habitat heterogeneity is not too high. Seed dispersal accelerates it, whereas pollen dispersal tends to retard it. In both scenarios very high seed dispersal leads to extinction. Overall, our results predict a wider niche for species dispersing seeds more than pollen.     

Evolutionary dynamics and highly optimized tolerance

We develop a numerical model of a lattice community based on Highly Optimized Tolerance (HOT), which relates the evolution of complexity to robustness tradeoffs in an uncertain environment. With the model, we explore scenarios for evolution and extinction which are abstractions of processes which are commonly discussed in biological and ecological case studies. These include the effects of different habitats on the phenotypic traits of the organisms, the effects of different mutation rates on adaptation, fitness, and diversity, and competition between generalists and specialists. The model exhibits a wide variety of microevolutionary and macroevolutionary phenomena which can arise in organisms which are subject to random mutation, and selection based on fitness evaluated in a specific environment. Generalists arise in uniform habitats, where different disturbances occur with equal frequency, while specialists arise when the relative frequency of different disturbances is skewed. Fast mutators are seen to play a primary role in adaptation, while slow mutators preserve well-adapted configurations. When uniform and skewed habitats are coupled through migration of the organisms, we observe a primitive form of punctuated equilibrium. Rare events in the skewed habitat lead to extinction of the specialists, whereupon generalists invade from the uniform habitat, adapt to their new surroundings, ultimately leading their progeny to become vulnerable to extinction in a subsequent rare disturbance.     

Patterns of species ranges, speciation, and extinction

The exact nature of the relationship among species range sizes, speciation, and extinction events is not well understood. The factors that promote larger ranges, such as broad niche widths and high dispersal abilities, could increase the likelihood of encountering new habitats but also prevent local adaptation due to high gene flow. Similarly, low dispersal abilities or narrower niche widths could cause populations to be isolated, but such populations may lack advantageous mutations due to low population sizes. Here we present a large-scale, spatially explicit, individual-based model addressing the relationships between species ranges, speciation, and extinction. We followed the evolutionary dynamics of hundreds of thousands of diploid individuals for 200,000 generations. Individuals adapted to multiple resources and formed ecological species in a multidimensional trait space. These species varied in niche widths, and we observed the coexistence of generalists and specialists on a few resources. Our model shows that species ranges correlate with dispersal abilities but do not change with the strength of fitness trade-offs; however, high dispersal abilities and low resource utilization costs, which favored broad niche widths, have a strong negative effect on speciation rates. An unexpected result of our model is the strong effect of underlying resource distributions on speciation: in highly fragmented landscapes, speciation rates are reduced.     

Evidence for evolutionary change associated with the recent range expansion of the British butterfly, Aricia agestis, in response to climate change

Poleward range expansions are widespread responses to recent climate change and are crucial for the future persistence of many species. However, evolutionary change in traits such as colonization history and habitat preference may also be necessary to track environmental change across a fragmented landscape. Understanding the likelihood and speed of such adaptive change is important in determining the rate of species extinction with ongoing climate change. We conducted an amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP)‐based genome scan across the recently expanded UK range of the Brown Argus butterfly, Aricia agestis, and used outlier‐based (DFDIST and BayeScan) and association‐based (Isolation‐By‐Adaptation) statistical approaches to identify signatures of evolutionary change associated with range expansion and habitat use. We present evidence for (i) limited effects of range expansion on population genetic structure and (ii) strong signatures of selection at approximately 5% AFLP loci associated with both the poleward range expansion of A. agestis and differences in habitat use across long‐established and recently colonized sites. Patterns of allele frequency variation at these candidate loci suggest that adaptation to new habitats at the range margin has involved selection on genetic variation in habitat use found across the long‐established part of the range. Our results suggest that evolutionary change is likely to affect species’ responses to climate change and that genetic variation in ecological traits across species’ distributions should be maximized to facilitate range shifts across a fragmented landscape, particularly in species that show strong associations with particular habitats.     

On the evolutionary stability of sink populations

The evolution of adaptive behaviours can influence population dynamics. Conversely, population dynamics can affect both the rate and direction of adaptive evolution. This paper examines reasons why sink populations – populations maintained by immigration, preventing local extinction – might persist in the habitat repertoire of a species over evolutionary time-scales. Two such reasons correspond to standard explanations for deviations from an ideal free habitat distribution: organisms may not be free to settle in whichever habitat has the highest potential fitness, and may be constrained by costs, perceptual limitations, or mode of dispersal in the acuity of their habitat selectivity. Here, I argue that a third general reason for persistent sink populations is provided by unstable population dynamics in source habitats. I present a simple model illustrating how use of a sink habitat may be selectively advantageous, when a source population has unstable dynamics (which necessarily reflects temporal variation in local fitnesses). Species with unstable local dynamics in high-quality habitats should be selected to utilize a broader range of habitats than species with stable local dynamics, and in particular in some circumstances should utilize sink habitats. This observation has implications for the direction of niche evolution, and the likelihood of niche conservatism.     

A multilocus perspective on colonization accompanied by selection and gene flow

The colonization of novel habitats involves complex interactions between founder events, selection, and ongoing migration, and can lead to diverse evolutionary outcomes from local extinction to adaptation to speciation. Although there have been several studies of the demography of colonization of remote habitats, less is known about the demographic consequences of colonization of novel habitats within a continuous species range. Populations of the Eastern Fence Lizard, Sceloporus undulatus, are continuously distributed across two dramatic transitions in substrate color in southern New Mexico and have undergone rapid adaptation following colonization of these novel environments. Blanched forms inhabit the gypsum sand dunes of White Sands and melanic forms are found on the black basalt rocks of the Carrizozo lava flow. Each of these habitats formed within the last 10,000 years, allowing comparison of genetic signatures of population history for two independent colonizations from the same source population. We present evidence on phenotypic variation in lizard color, environmental variation in substrate color, and sequence variation for mitochondrial DNA and 19 independent nuclear loci. To confirm the influence of natural selection and gene flow in this system, we show that phenotypic variation is best explained by environmental variation and that neutral genetic variation is related to distance between populations, not partitioned by habitat. The historical demography of colonization was inferred using an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) framework that incorporates known geological information and allows for ongoing migration with the source population. The inferences differed somewhat between mtDNA and nuclear markers, but overall provided strong evidence of historical size reductions in both white sand and black lava populations at the time of colonization. Populations in both novel habitats appear to have undergone partial but incomplete recovery from the initial bottleneck. Both ABC analyses and measures of mtDNA sequence diversity also suggested that population reductions were more severe in the black lava compared to the white sands habitat. Differences observed between habitats may be explained by differences in colonization time, habitat geometry, and strength or response to natural selection for substrate matching. Finally, effective population size reductions in this system appear to be more dramatic when colonization is accompanied by a change in selection regime. Our analyses are consistent with a demographic cost of adaptation to novel environments and show that it is possible to infer aspects of the historical demography of local adaptation even in the presence of ongoing gene flow.     

Local adaptation and the evolution of species’ ranges under climate change

The potential impact of climate change on biodiversity is well documented. A well developed range of statistical methods currently exists that projects the possible future habitat of a species directly from the current climate and a species distribution. However, studies incorporating ecological and evolutionary processes remain limited. Here, we focus on the potential role that local adaptation to climate may play in driving the range dynamics of sessile organisms. Incorporating environmental adaptation into a stochastic simulation yields several new insights. Counter-intuitively, our simulation results suggest that species with broader ranges are not necessarily more robust to climate change. Instead, species with broader ranges can be more susceptible to extinction as locally adapted genotypes are often blocked from range shifting by the presence of cooler adapted genotypes that persist even when their optimum climate has left them behind. Interestingly, our results also suggest that it will not always be the cold-adapted phenotypes that drive polewards range expansion. Instead, range shifts may be driven by phenotypes conferring adaptation to conditions prevalent towards the centre of a species’ equilibrium distribution. This may have important consequences for the conservation method termed predictive provenancing. These initial results highlight the potential importance of local adaptation in determining how species will respond to climate change and we argue that this is an area requiring urgent theoretical and empirical attention.     

Evolution of complex dynamics in spatially structured populations

Dynamics of populations depend on demographic parameters which may change during evolution. In simple ecological models given by one-dimensional difference equations, the evolution of demographic parameters generally leads to equilibrium population dynamics. Here we show that this is not true in spatially structured ecological models. Using a multi-patch metapopulation model, we study the evolutionary dynamics of phenotypes that differ both in their response to local crowding, i.e. in their competitive behaviour within a habitat, and in their rate of dispersal between habitats. Our simulation results show that evolution can favour phenotypes that have the intrinsic potential for very complex dynamics provided that the environment is spatially structured and temporally variable. These phenotypes owe their evolutionary persistence to their large dispersal rates. They typically coexist with phenotypes that have low dispersal rates and that exhibit equilibrium dynamics when alone. This coexistence is brought about through the phenomenon of evolutionary branching, during which an initially uniform population splits into the two phenotypic classes.     

Climate change shifts population structure and demographics of an alpine herb,Anemone narcissiflora ssp. sachalinensis (Ranunculaceae), along a snowmelt gradient

Alpine ecosystems, characterized by cold climates and short growing seasons, are thought to be most vulnerable to climate change. Warmer temperatures and earlier snowmelt extend the growing season length and increase drought stress for alpine plants, resulting in changes to their distribution. Anemone narcissiflora ssp. sachalinensis is a perennial herb that grows in the alpine snow-meadows of northern Japan. In the last few decades, its distribution has shifted toward later snowmelt habitat in the Taisetsu Mountains of Hokkaido. We recorded demographic data for this species at early, middle and late snowmelt habitats over four years (2009–2012), and constructed transition matrix models to evaluate how demographic parameters and population growth rate vary between local habitats along a snowmelt gradient. The proportion of reproductive plants was low and seed production was limited in the early snowmelt habitat, with drier soil conditions, in comparison to the middle and late snowmelt habitats, with moist soil conditions. Evidence of the transition from small plants to those in the reproductive stage was limited in the early snowmelt habitat, suggesting that growth was inhibited; the local population in this habitat was estimated to be sustained by seed migration from later snowmelt habitats. These results indicate that advancing snowmelt under climate change may decrease the reproductive activity and population growth rate of snow-meadow plants if seed migration from later snowmelt populations is limited, resulting in the extinction of local populations.     

The influence of fluctuating population densities on evolutionary dynamics

The causes and consequences of fluctuating population densities are an important topic in ecological literature. Yet, the effects of such fluctuations on maintenance of variation in spatially structured populations have received little analytic treatment. We analyze what happens when two habitats coupled by migration not only differ in their trade‐offs in selection but also in their demographic stability—and show that equilibrium allele frequencies can change significantly due to ecological feedback arising from locally fluctuating population sizes. When an ecological niche exhibits such fluctuations, these drive an asymmetry in the relative impact of gene flow, and therefore, the equilibrium frequency of the locally adapted type decreases. Our results extend the classic conditions on maintenance of diversity under selection and migration by including the effect of fluctuating population densities. We find simple analytic conditions in terms of the strength of selection, immigration, and the extent of fluctuations between generations in a continent‐island model. Although weak fluctuations hardly affect coexistence, strong recurrent fluctuations lead to extinction of the type better adapted to the fluctuating niche—even if the invader is locally maladapted. There is a disadvantage to specialization to an unstable habitat, as it makes the population vulnerable to swamping from more stable habitats.     

Dynamics of Adaptation in Spatially Heterogeneous Metapopulations

The selection pressure experienced by organisms often varies across the species range. It is hence crucial to characterise the link between environmental spatial heterogeneity and the adaptive dynamics of species or populations. We address this issue by studying the phenotypic evolution of a spatial metapopulation using an adaptive dynamics approach. The singular strategy is found to be the mean of the optimal phenotypes in each habitat with larger weights for habitats present in large and well connected patches. The presence of spatial clusters of habitats in the metapopulation is found to facilitate specialisation and to increase both the level of adaptation and the evolutionary speed of the population when dispersal is limited. By showing that spatial structures are crucial in determining the specialisation level and the evolutionary speed of a population, our results give insight into the influence of spatial heterogeneity on the niche breadth of species.     

Linking habitat specialization with species' traits in European birds

Ecological specialization provides information about adaptations of species to their environment. However, identification of traits representing the relevant dimensions of ecological space remains challenging. Here we endeavoured to explain how complex habitat specializations relate to various ecological traits of European birds. We employed phylogenetic generalized least squares and information theoretic approach statistically controlling for differences in geographic range size among species. Habitat specialists had narrower diet niche, wider climatic niche, higher wing length/tail length ratio and migrated on shorter distances than habitat generalists. Our results support an expected positive link between habitat and diet niche breadth estimates, however a negative relationship between habitat and climate niche breadths is surprising. It implies that habitat specialists occur mostly in spatially restricted environments with high climatic variability such as mountain areas. This, however, complicates our understanding of predicted impacts of climatic changes on avian geographical distributions. Our results further corroborate that habitat specialization reflects occupation of morphological space, when specialists depend more on manoeuvrability of the flight and are thus more closely associated to open habitats than habitat generalists. Finally, our results indicate that long distance movements might hamper narrow habitat preferences. In conclusion, we have shown that species’ distributions across habitats are informative about their positions along other axes of ecological space and can explain states of particular functional traits, however, our results also reveal that the links between different niche estimates cannot be always straightforwardly predicted.     

Sources and sinks in population biology

The various habitats inhabited by a given species are never of the same quality. When demographic models take into account this habitat heterogeneity, the source-sink concept naturally emerges: a local demographic surplus arises in good quality habitats (source), and a local demographic deficit occurs in habitats of poor quality (sink). Within a landscape, a permanent migration of propagules or individuals from source to sink habitats may lead to a stabilization of the overall demographic system. This simple situation, explored in the recent literature, has surprising properties. In particular, it requires a change in our view of classical concepts such as ecological niche and carrying capacity, it can explain the existence and persistence of local maladaptation and it can improve conservation practice.     

Reconstructing changes in the genotype,phenotype, and climatic niche of an introduced species

An introduced species must contend with enormous environmental variation in its introduced range. In this study, we use niche models and ordination analyses to reconstruct changes in genotype, phenotype, and climatic niche of Johnsongrass Sorghum halepense, which is regarded as one of the world's most threatening invasive plants. In the United States, Johnsongrass has rapidly evolved within‐ and among‐population genetic diversity; our results show that genetic differentiation in expanding Johnsongrass populations has resulted in phenotypic variation that is consistent with habitat and climatic variation encountered during its expansion. Moreover, Johnsongrass expanded from agricultural to non‐agricultural habitat, and now, despite occupying overlapping ranges, extant agricultural and non‐agricultural populations are genetically and phenotypically distinct and manifest different plastic responses when encountering environmental variation. Non‐agricultural accessions are broadly distributed in climatic and geographic space and their fitness traits demonstrate plastic responses to common garden conditions that are consistent with local specialization. In contrast, agricultural accessions demonstrate ‘general purpose’ plastic responses and have more restricted climatic niches and geographic distributions. They also grow much larger than non‐agricultural accessions. If these differences are adaptive, our results suggest that adaptation to local habitat variation plays a crucial role in the ecology of this invader. Further, its success relates to its ability to succeed on dual fronts, by responding simultaneously to habitat and climate variability and by capitalizing on differential responses to these factors during its range expansion.     

Time to Evolve? Potential Evolutionary Responses of Fraser River Sockeye Salmon to Climate Change and Effects on Persistence

Evolutionary adaptation affects demographic resilience to climate change but few studies have attempted to project changes in selective pressures or quantify impacts of trait responses on population dynamics and extinction risk. We used a novel individual-based model to explore potential evolutionary changes in migration timing and the consequences for population persistence in sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka in the Fraser River, Canada, under scenarios of future climate warming. Adult sockeye salmon are highly sensitive to increases in water temperature during their arduous upriver migration, raising concerns about the fate of these ecologically, culturally, and commercially important fish in a warmer future. Our results suggest that evolution of upriver migration timing could allow these salmon to avoid increasingly frequent stressful temperatures, with the odds of population persistence increasing in proportion to the trait heritability and phenotypic variance. With a simulated 2°C increase in average summer river temperatures by 2100, adult migration timing from the ocean to the river advanced by ～10 days when the heritability was 0.5, while the risk of quasi-extinction was only 17% of that faced by populations with zero evolutionary potential (i.e., heritability fixed at zero). The rates of evolution required to maintain persistence under simulated scenarios of moderate to rapid warming are plausible based on estimated heritabilities and rates of microevolution of timing traits in salmon and related species, although further empirical work is required to assess potential genetic and ecophysiological constraints on phenological adaptation. These results highlight the benefits to salmon management of maintaining evolutionary potential within populations, in addition to conserving key habitats and minimizing additional stressors where possible, as a means to build resilience to ongoing climate change. More generally, they demonstrate the importance and feasibility of considering evolutionary processes, in addition to ecology and demography, when projecting population responses to environmental change.     

The adaptive value of epigenetic mutation: Limited in large but high in small peripheral populations

The fate of populations during range expansions, invasions and environmental changes is largely influenced by their ability to adapt to peripheral habitats. Recent models demonstrate that stable epigenetic modifications of gene expression that occur more frequently than genetic mutations can both help and hinder adaptation in panmictic populations. However, these models do not consider interactions between epimutations and evolutionary forces in peripheral populations. Here, we use mainland–island mathematical models and simulations to explore how the faster rate of epigenetic mutation compared to genetic mutations interacts with migration, selection and genetic drift to affect adaptation in peripheral populations. Our model focuses on cases where epigenetic marks are stably inherited. In a large peripheral population, where the effect of genetic drift is negligible, our analyses suggest that epimutations with random fitness impacts that occur at rates as high as 10^–3 increase local adaptation when migration is strong enough to overwhelm divergent selection. When migration is weak relative to selection and epimutations with random fitness impacts decrease adaptation, we find epigenetic modifications must be highly adaptively biased to enhance adaptation. Finally, in small peripheral populations, where genetic drift is strong, epimutations contribute to adaptation under a wider range of evolutionary conditions. Overall, our results suggest that epimutations can change outcomes of adaptation in peripheral populations, which has implications for understanding conservation and range expansions and contractions, especially of small populations.     

Gene flow and the coevolution of parasite range

Abstract The geographic range of many parasites is restricted relative to that of their hosts. We study possible evolutionary mechanisms for this observation using a simple model that couples coevolution and demography. The model assumes that the environment consists of two habitats connected by movement and that coevolution is governed by quantitative traits. Our results demonstrate that host gene flow is an important determinant of parasite geographic range. Fluctuations in the rate of host gene flow cause shifts in parasite population densities and associated range expansions or contractions. In extreme cases, changing the rate of host gene flow can lead to global extinction of the parasite. Through a process we term demographic compensation, these shifts in parasite density may occur with little or no change in parasite adaptation to the host. As a consequence, reciprocal adaptation between host and parasite can become uncoupled from the rate of host gene flow.     

Using functional traits and phylogeny to understand local extinction risk in dragonflies and damselflies (Odonata)

Understanding the risk of local extinction of a species is vital in conservation biology, especially now when anthropogenic disturbances and global warming are severely changing natural habitats. Local extinction risk depends on species traits, such as its geographical range size, fresh body mass, dispersal ability, length of flying period, life history variation, and how specialized it is regarding its breeding habitat. We used a phylogenetic approach because closely related species are not independent observations in the statistical tests. Our field data contained the local extinction risk of 31 odonate (dragonflies and damselflies) species from Central Finland. Species relatedness (i.e., phylogenetic signal) did not affect local extinction risk, length of flying period, nor the geographical range size of a species. However, we found that closely related species were similar in hind wing length, length of larval period, and habitat of larvae. Both phylogenetically corrected (PGLS) and uncorrected (GLM) analysis indicated that the geographical range size of species was negatively related to local extinction risk. Contrary to expectations, habitat specialist species did not have higher local extinction rates than habitat generalist species nor was it affected by the relatedness of species. As predicted, species’ long larval period increased, and long wings decreased the local extinction risk when evolutionary relatedness was controlled. Our results suggest that a relatively narrow geographical range size is an accurate estimate for a local extinction risk of an odonate species, but the species with long life history and large habitat niche width of adults increased local extinction risk. Because the results were so similar between PGLS and GLM methods, it seems that using a phylogenetic approach does not improve predicting local extinctions.     

Carryover effects from natal habitat type upon competitive ability lead to trait divergence or source–sink dynamics

Local adaptation to rare habitats is difficult due to gene flow, but can occur if the habitat has higher productivity. Differences in offspring phenotypes have attracted little attention in this context. We model a scenario where the rarer habitat improves offspring's later competitive ability – a carryover effect that operates on top of local adaptation to one or the other habitat type. Assuming localised dispersal, so the offspring tend to settle in similar habitat to the natal type, the superior competitive ability of offspring remaining in the rarer habitat hampers immigration from the majority habitat. This initiates a positive feedback between local adaptation and trait divergence, which can thereafter be reinforced by coevolution with dispersal traits that match ecotype to habitat type. Rarity strengthens selection on dispersal traits and promotes linkage disequilibrium between locally adapted traits and ecotype‐habitat matching dispersal. We propose that carryover effects may initiate isolation by ecology.     

Theoretical perspectives on the statics and dynamics of species' borders in patchy environments

Understanding range limits is a fundamental problem in ecology and evolutionary biology. In 1963, Mayr argued that "contaminating" gene flow from central populations constrained adaptation in marginal populations, preventing range expansion, while in 1984, Bradshaw suggested that absence of genetic variation prevented species from occurring everywhere. Understanding stability of range boundaries requires unraveling the interplay of demography, gene flow, and evolution of populations in concrete landscape settings. We walk through a set of interrelated spatial scenarios that illustrate interesting complexities of this interplay. To motivate our individual-based model results, we consider a hypothetical zooplankter in a landscape of discrete water bodies coupled by dispersal. We examine how patterns of dispersal influence adaptation in sink habitats where conditions are outside the species' niche. The likelihood of observing niche evolution (and thus range expansion) over any given timescale depends on (1) the degree of initial maladaptation; (2) pattern (pulsed vs. continuous, uni- vs. bidirectional), timing (juvenile vs. adult), and rate of dispersal (and hence population size); (3) mutation rate; (4) sexuality; and (5) the degree of heterogeneity in the occupied range. We also show how the genetic architecture of polygenic adaptation is influenced by the interplay of selection and dispersal in heterogeneous landscapes.