Modelling range dynamics of terricolous lichens of the genus Peltigera in the Alps under a climate change scenario

Climate change is expected to strongly impact biodiversity in Alpine ecosystems and species distribution modelling is increasingly used to provide anticipatory information to guide conservation. In this study, (1) we quantified the range loss, range gain, range change and range turnover caused by climate change in the genus Peltigera a group of terricolous lichens widespread across the Alps, and then (2) we evaluated the relationships between the predictors of range dynamics and functional traits. Our results indicate moderate range dynamics for species of the genus Peltigera across the Alps under a climate change scenario. This would imply a relative stability and resistance of these lichens to climate change that may reflect the local persistence of the species under sub-optimal conditions. Our results also suggest that range dynamics could be associated with functional traits mainly related to water-use strategies and to a trade-off between dispersal and establishment ability. This finding suggests that functional traits may strongly modulate the lichen response to climate change and that species with similar functional traits are prone to similar selective pressures.     

Climate change impacts on endemic,high-elevation lichens in a biodiversity hotspot

Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lichens and fungi have focused largely on alpine and subalpine habitats, and have not investigated the potential impact on narrowly endemic species. Here, we estimate the impacts of climate change on high-elevation, endemic lichens in the southern Appalachians, a global diversity hotspot for many groups of organisms, including lichens. We conducted extensive field surveys in the high elevations of the region to accurately document the current distributions of eight narrowly endemic lichen species. Species distribution modeling was used to predict how much climatically suitable area will remain within, and north of, the current range of the target species under multiple climate change scenarios at two time points in the future. Our field work showed that target species ranged from extreme rarity to locally abundant. Models predicted over 93 % distributional loss for all species investigated and very little potentially suitable area north of their current distribution in the coming century. Our results indicate that climate change poses a significant threat to high-elevation lichens, and provide a case study in the application of current modeling techniques for rare, montane species.     

Functional traits of epiphytic lichen communities in a Temperate-Mediterranean fragmented landscape: Importance of patch size,tree diameter and summer rainfall

Functional traits have become important tools for evaluating the response of epiphytic lichens to environmental changes. In this study, we evaluated which predictors related to fragmentation, habitat quality and climate were driving the richness and cover of lichen growth form, type of photobiont and reproduction traits, at both fragment and plot levels in a Temperate-Mediterranean area dominated by Quercus forests. At fragment level, patch size and summer rainfall positively contributed to richness in most of the traits, while tree diameter and slope were the most important drivers, especially for the type of reproduction and growth form at plot scale. High coverage of growth forms especially sensitive to fragmentation were indicative of high values of total species richness, while early-colonizers indicated the opposite. These results provide important information on how lichen traits respond to environmental conditions in an ecotone area where a shift towards a drier climate is more likely to occur.     

Changing climate and historic‐woodland structure interact to control species diversity of the ‘Lobarion’ epiphyte community in Scotland

Question: How will changing climate and habitat structure interact to control the species diversity of lichen epiphytes? Location: Scotland. Method: Species richness (=diversity) of the epiphyte lichen community known as Lobarion (named after Lobaria pulmonaria) was quantified for 94 Populus tremula stands across Scotland, and compared in a predictive model to seven climate variables and eight measures of woodland structure. An optimum model was selected and used to project Lobarion diversity over the geographic range of the study area, based on IPCC climate change scenarios and hypothetical shifts in woodland structure. Results: Species diversity of the Lobarion community was best explained by three climate variables: (1) average annual temperature; (2) autumn and winter precipitation; in combination with (3) historic‐woodland extent. Projections indicate a positive effect of predicted climate change on Lobarion diversity, consistent with the physiological traits of cyanobac‐terial lichens comprising the Lobarion. However, the general response to climate is modified significantly by the effect on diversity of historic‐woodland extent. Conclusions: Historic‐woodland extent may exert an important control over local climate, as well as impacting upon the metapopulation dynamics of species in the Lobarion. In particular, a temporal delay in the response of Lobarion species to changed woodland structure is critical to our understanding of future climate change effects. Future Lobarion diversity (e.g. in the 2050s) may depend upon the interaction of contemporary climate (e.g. 2050s climate) and historic habitat structure (e.g. 1950s woodland extent). This is supported by previous observations for an extinction debt amongst lichen epiphytes, but suggests an extension of simple climate‐response models is necessary, before their wider application to lichen epiphyte diversity.     

Local extent of old-growth woodland modifies epiphyte response to climate change

Aim To quantify the interaction between climate and woodland continuity in determining the bioclimatic response of lichen epiphytes. Location Northern Britain (Scotland). Methods Indicator‐species analysis was used to pre‐select lichen epiphytes along parallel gradients in climate and the extent of old‐growth woodland. Nonparametric multiplicative regression was used to describe in a predictive model the individualistic response of selected species, which were projected based on climate‐change scenarios and contrasting patterns of simulated woodland loss or gain. Species with a similar response were grouped using a novel application of cluster analysis to summarize the potentially huge number of projected outcomes. Projected patterns of occurrence under climate‐change scenarios were examined for different levels of old‐growth woodland extent. Results Forty‐two lichen species were statistically significant indicator species in oceanic woodlands, and old‐growth indicators under suboptimal climatic conditions. Responses to climate‐change scenarios were contrasting, with one group comprising species projected to increase in extent in response to climate warming, and other response groups projected to decrease in occurrence, possibly in response to shifting rainfall patterns. The occurrence of all response groups had a positive relationship with old‐growth woodland extent. Main conclusions An ‘oceanic’ biogeographical group of epiphytes identified using the baseline climatic and present‐day woodland setting comprised species with a cyanobacterial photobiont or tropical phytogeographical affinities. However, within this group the individual species responses to climate‐change scenarios were contrasting. Additionally, group responses may be poorly matched with simple ecological traits. However, the studied interaction between climate and habitat continuity suggests that the impact of climate change might be offset for certain lichen epiphytes by appropriate management of woodland resources, for example, expansion of native woodland around remnant old‐growth stands.     

Interactions among species with contrasting dispersal modes explain distributions for epiphytic lichens

Understanding how the biodiversity response to climate change will be modified at ecological scales, e.g. by species interactions, is a major challenge. Lichen epiphytes – the close interdependent relationship between a heterotrophic fungus and photosynthetic partner (photobiont) – are used here to explore how interaction regimes (between lichen species, and between lichens and their photobionts) explain distribution patterns along spatial climatic gradients. To do this we tested field evidence for the ‘core‐fringe hypothesis’, which proposes a facilitative interaction; sexually‐reproducing and spore‐dispersed lichens with a requirement for resynthesis with a compatible photobiont (Nostoc) are facilitated by the prior establishment of asexual lichens which disperse both the fungus and photobiont together. We used two closely related Nephroma species which differ in their reproductive mode – N. laevigatum (sexual spore‐dispersed) and N. parile (asexual) – and compared their occurrence along a bioclimatic gradient to local habitat factors, including the co‐occurrence of asexual lichens which have shared specificity for compatible Nostoc genotypes. The results showed that: 1) N. laevigatum is significantly more likely to occur on trees that have already been colonised by asexual lichens with shared specificity for Nostoc, supporting the core‐fringe hypothesis, while 2) N. parile is independent of this association (strengthening the core‐fringe hypothesis), with its response to a precipitation gradient modified by microhabitat factors. This positive test for the core‐fringe hypothesis demonstrates how interaction regimes can fundamentally alter expectations under climate change. There is an assumption that spore‐dispersed lichen species could more easily track their suitable bioclimatic space through fragmented habitat, compared to asexual species with larger and heavier propagules. However, the establishment of spore‐dispersed lichen epiphytes into new habitat may be limited by the dispersal rates of asexual species, which act as key facilitators.     

Lichen ecophysiology in a changing climate

Lichens are one of the most iconic and ubiquitous symbioses known, widely valued as indicators of environmental quality and, more recently, climate change. Our understanding of lichen responses to climate has greatly expanded in recent decades, but some biases and constraints have shaped our present knowledge. In this review we focus on lichen ecophysiology as a key to predicting responses to present and future climates, highlighting recent advances and remaining challenges. Lichen ecophysiology is best understood through complementary whole-thallus and within-thallus scales. Water content and form (vapor or liquid) are central to whole-thallus perspectives, making vapor pressure differential (VPD) a particularly informative environmental driver. Responses to water content are further modulated by photobiont physiology and whole-thallus phenotype, providing clear links to a functional trait framework. However, this thallus-level perspective is incomplete without also considering within-thallus dynamics, such as changing proportions or even identities of symbionts in response to climate, nutrients, and other stressors. These changes provide pathways for acclimation, but their understanding is currently limited by large gaps in our understanding of carbon allocation and symbiont turnover in lichens. Lastly, the study of lichen physiology has mainly prioritized larger lichens at high latitudes, producing valuable insights but underrepresenting the range of lichenized lineages and ecologies. Key areas for future work include improving geographic and phylogenetic coverage, greater emphasis on VPD as a climatic factor, advances in the study of carbon allocation and symbiont turnover, and the incorporation of physiological theory and functional traits in our predictive models.     

The impact of nitrogen deposition on photobiont‐mycobiont balance of epiphytic lichens in subtropical forests of central China

Excessive nitrogen (N) deposition can impact lichen diversity in forest ecosystems, and this is a particular situation in China. Here, we examined the N uptake, assimilation, and the impact of excessive N deposition on the symbiotic balance of dominant epiphytic lichens in the subtropical forests in the Mts. Shennongjia of central China. The results show that lichen species took up, assimilated and utilized more ammonium than nitrate in a species‐specific way, following the increase of N availability. The photobiont of the lichens decreased with the increase of N concentration following an initial increase, while the mycobiont response to the N addition was not apparent. Considerable variation in response to excessive N deposition exists among the lichen species. Usnea longissima could regulate its N uptake, resulting in a stable photobiont‐mycobiont ratio among N treatments. In contrast, the photobiont‐mycobiont ratio of other four lichens increased initially but decreased when N concentration exceeded a certain level, and N stress may have broken the balance between photobiont and mycobiont of these lichens. Our results suggest that most epiphytic lichens in subtropical forest of central China could uptake and assimilate more ammonium than nitrate and that the balance between photobiont and mycobiont of many epiphytic lichens might change with the increasing N deposition load, which could impact the lichen diversity of this forest ecosystem.     

How lichens impact on terrestrial community and ecosystem properties

Lichens occur in most terrestrial ecosystems; they are often present as minor contributors, but in some forests, drylands and tundras they can make up most of the ground layer biomass. As such, lichens dominate approximately 8% of the Earth's land surface. Despite their potential importance in driving ecosystem biogeochemistry, the influence of lichens on community processes and ecosystem functioning have attracted relatively little attention. Here, we review the role of lichens in terrestrial ecosystems and draw attention to the important, but often overlooked role of lichens as determinants of ecological processes. We start by assessing characteristics that vary among lichens and that may be important in determining their ecological role; these include their growth form, the types of photobionts that they contain, their key functional traits, their water‐holding capacity, their colour, and the levels of secondary compounds in their thalli. We then assess how these differences among lichens influence their impacts on ecosystem and community processes. As such, we consider the consequences of these differences for determining the impacts of lichens on ecosystem nutrient inputs and fluxes, on the loss of mass and nutrients during lichen thallus decomposition, and on the role of lichenivorous invertebrates in moderating decomposition. We then consider how differences among lichens impact on their interactions with consumer organisms that utilize lichen thalli, and that range in size from microfauna (for which the primary role of lichens is habitat provision) to large mammals (for which lichens are primarily a food source). We then address how differences among lichens impact on plants, through for example increasing nutrient inputs and availability during primary succession, and serving as a filter for plant seedling establishment. Finally we identify areas in need of further work for better understanding the role of lichens in terrestrial ecosystems. These include understanding how the high intraspecific trait variation that characterizes many lichens impacts on community assembly processes and ecosystem functioning, how multiple species mixtures of lichens affect the key community‐ and ecosystem‐level processes that they drive, the extent to which lichens in early succession influence vascular plant succession and ecosystem development in the longer term, and how global change drivers may impact on ecosystem functioning through altering the functional composition of lichen communities.     

Potential for evolutionary responses to climate change – evidence from tree populations

Evolutionary responses are required for tree populations to be able to track climate change. Results of 250 years of common garden experiments show that most forest trees have evolved local adaptation, as evidenced by the adaptive differentiation of populations in quantitative traits, reflecting environmental conditions of population origins. On the basis of the patterns of quantitative variation for 19 adaptation‐related traits studied in 59 tree species (mostly temperate and boreal species from the Northern hemisphere), we found that genetic differentiation between populations and clinal variation along environmental gradients were very common (respectively, 90% and 78% of cases). Thus, responding to climate change will likely require that the quantitative traits of populations again match their environments. We examine what kind of information is needed for evaluating the potential to respond, and what information is already available. We review the genetic models related to selection responses, and what is known currently about the genetic basis of the traits. We address special problems to be found at the range margins, and highlight the need for more modeling to understand specific issues at southern and northern margins. We need new common garden experiments for less known species. For extensively studied species, new experiments are needed outside the current ranges. Improving genomic information will allow better prediction of responses. Competitive and other interactions within species and interactions between species deserve more consideration. Despite the long generation times, the strong background in quantitative genetics and growing genomic resources make forest trees useful species for climate change research. The greatest adaptive response is expected when populations are large, have high genetic variability, selection is strong, and there is ecological opportunity for establishment of better adapted genotypes.     

Impact of climate change on alpine vegetation of mountain summits in Norway

Climate change is affecting the composition and functioning of ecosystems across the globe. Mountain ecosystems are particularly sensitive to climate warming since their biota is generally limited by low temperatures. Cryptogams such as lichens and bryophytes are important for the biodiversity and functioning of these ecosystems, but have not often been incorporated in vegetation resurvey studies. Hence, we lack a good understanding of how vascular plants, lichens and bryophytes respond interactively to climate warming in alpine communities. Here we quantified long-term changes in species richness, cover, composition and thermophilization (i.e. the increasing dominance of warm-adapted species) of vascular plants, lichens and bryophytes on four summits at Dovrefjell, Norway. These summits are situated along an elevational gradient from the low alpine to high alpine zone and were surveyed for all species in 2001, 2008 and 2015. During the 15-year period, a decline in lichen richness and increase in bryophyte richness was detected, whereas no change in vascular plant richness was found. Dwarf-shrub abundance progressively increased at the expense of lichens, and thermophilization was most pronounced for vascular plants, but occurred only on the lowest summits and northern aspects. Lichens showed less thermophilization and, for the bryophytes, no significant thermophilization was found. Although recent climate change may have primarily caused the observed changes in vegetation, combined effects with non-climatic factors (e.g. grazing and trampling) are likely important as well. At a larger scale, alpine vegetation shifts could have a profound impact on biosphere functioning with feedbacks to the global climate.     

Water-energy relationships shape the phylogenetic diversity of terricolous lichen communities in Mediterranean mountains: Implications for conservation in a climate change scenario

Lichens are symbiotic organisms sensitive to climate change and susceptible to a severe decline in diversity, especially in high elevation environments that are already threatened. In this study, we focused on water-energy relationships derived from climatic variables and phylogenetic diversity indices of terricolous lichen communities occurring on a representative Mediterranean mountain. We hypothesized that the variation of precipitation and temperature and their interaction along the altitudinal gradient will shape the phylogenetic diversity and structure of lichen communities. Our results reveal that dry and arid conditions lead to a strong loss in phylogenetic diversity with consequent impoverishment of high elevation lichen communities under a climate change scenario. The interaction between variables, reflecting water-energy relationships with phylogenetic and community diversity patterns, suggests that in a future climate change scenario, the novel climatic conditions may reduce the capability of the species to survive harsher conditions, and Mediterranean mountains may face a severe loss of genetic diversity in a climate change scenario.     

Bole epiphytic lichens as potential indicators of environmental change in subtropical forest ecosystems in southwest China

Lichen epiphytes are applied as excellent environmental indicators worldwide. However, very little is known about epiphytic lichen communities and their response to forest dynamics in subtropical China. This paper proposes the applications of the cover, diversity, and functional traits of epiphytic lichens to assess environmental changes associated with succession in subtropical forests of southwest China. Bole lichens were sampled from 120 plots of eight representative forest types in the Ailao Mountains. Total cover, species richness, diversity and community structure of bole lichens differed significantly among forest types, and the highest cover and diversity occurred in the Populus bonatii secondary forest (PBSF). Sixty-one indicator species were associated with particular forest types and more than 50% occurred in the PBSF. Both cover and diversity of most lichen functional groups varied regularly during forest succession. Lichen pioneer species were not displaced by competitively superior species as succession proceeds and cyanolichens were more prevalent in secondary forests. The results also highlight the importance of habitat variables such as canopy openness, host diversity, forest age, tree size, the size of the largest tree, tree density, and basal area on the lichen community. Consequently, our findings support the notion that epiphytic lichens, in terms of cover, diversity, species composition and functional traits can be used as effective indicators for large-scale and long-term forest monitoring. More importantly, the narrowly lobed foliose group was the best candidate indicator of environmental conditions in this region. The combined application of lichen indicator species and functional groups seemed to be a more reliable and more powerful method for monitoring forest dynamics in subtropical montane ecosystems.     

Integrating multiple landscape-scale drivers in the lichen epiphyte response: climatic setting, pollution regime and woodland spatial-temporal structure

Aim To quantify the role of multiple biodiversity drivers – pollution, woodland structure and climate – controlling lichen epiphyte composition and diversity. Location  Scotland, north‐west Europe. Methods Four compatible datasets were assembled: site‐scale species distribution data (response) and base‐line modelled data on climate, pollution loads and extent of old‐growth woodland (explanatory variables). First, partial‐canonical correspondence analysis was used: (1) to compare the importance of environmental variables to pure spatial effects and (2) to partition the importance of environmental variables in explaining species composition. Secondly, patterns of species richness were investigated using multiple least‐squares regression. Results Old‐growth woodland was the most important control of species richness. Pollution was the most important explanatory variable for species composition. The impact of pollution on composition (and to a lesser extent on richness) is explained: (1) By recovery of lichens with declining SO₂ pollution, although with epiphyte composition shifted by the recent effects of N‐pollution and (2) By the limited spatial extent of severe pollution, and generally low‐to‐moderate pollution loads across our study area, combined with the positive effect of old‐growth woodland extent in controlling species richness. The effect of climate and old‐growth woodland on species composition covaried, supporting an interaction between habitat quality and climatic setting, which may be important in understanding the epiphyte response to climate change. Conclusions Advances in conservation planning will likely require an integrated approach to understanding simultaneous effects of multiple drivers, providing opportunities for integrated management strategies. Our study provides a preliminary example of this approach by combining three key biodiversity drivers into a single framework for lichen epiphytes. Thus, reducing pollution loads may make old‐growth woodland that currently exists in a polluted landscape available for colonization, thereby extending the available habitat for epiphytes, and facilitating an effective species response to climate change.     

Terrestrial insects and climate change: adaptive responses in key traits

Understanding and predicting how adaptation will contribute to species' resilience to climate change will be paramount to successfully managing biodiversity for conservation, agriculture, and human health‐related purposes. Making predictions that capture how species will respond to climate change requires an understanding of how key traits and environmental drivers interact to shape fitness in a changing world. Current trait‐based models suggest that low‐ to mid‐latitude populations will be most at risk, although these models focus on upper thermal limits, which may not be the most important trait driving species' distributions and fitness under climate change. In this review, we discuss how different traits (stress, fitness and phenology) might contribute and interact to shape insect responses to climate change. We examine the potential for adaptive genetic and plastic responses in these key traits and show that, although there is evidence of range shifts and trait changes, explicit consideration of what underpins these changes, be that genetic or plastic responses, is largely missing. Despite little empirical evidence for adaptive shifts, incorporating adaptation into models of climate change resilience is essential for predicting how species will respond under climate change. We are making some headway, although more data are needed, especially from taxonomic groups outside of Drosophila, and across diverse geographical regions. Climate change responses are likely to be complex, and such complexity will be difficult to capture in laboratory experiments. Moving towards well designed field experiments would allow us to not only capture this complexity, but also study more diverse species.     

Projecting potential future shifts in species composition of European urban plant communities

Aim

Urban floras are composed of species of different origin, both native and alien, and with various traits and niches. It is likely that these species will respond to the ongoing climate change in different ways, resulting in future species compositions with no analogues in current European cities. Our goal was to estimate potential shifts in plant species composition in European cities under different scenarios of climate change for the 21st century.

Location

Europe.

Methods

Potential changes in the distribution of 375 species currently growing in 60 large cities in Southern, Central and Western Europe were modelled using generalized linear models and four climate change projections for two future periods (2041–2060 and 2061–2080). These projections were based on two global climate models (CCSM4 and MIROC‐ESM) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (2.6 and 8.5).

Results

Results were similar across all climate projections, suggesting that the composition of urban plant communities will change considerably due to future climate change. However, even under the most severe climate change scenario, native and alien species will respond to climate change similarly. Many currently established species will decline and others, especially annuals currently restricted to Southern Europe, will spread to northern cities. In contrast, perennial herbs, woody plants and most species with temperate continental and oceanic distribution ranges will make up a smaller proportion of future European urban plant communities in comparison with the present communities.

Main conclusions

The projected 21st century climate change will lead to considerable changes in the species composition of urban floras. These changes will affect the structure and functioning of urban plant communities.

     

Diversity of Saxicolous Lichens along an Aridity Gradient in Central México

Lichens are symbiotic organisms that comprise a fungus and a photosynthetic partner wich are recognized as a good indicator of climate change. However, our understanding of how aridity affects the diversity of saxicolous lichens in drylands is still limited. To evaluate the relationship between saxicolous lichen diversity and aridity in a central México dryland, a geographical transect was established of 100 km to build an aridity gradient in the semiarid zone of the State of Querétaro, Mexico, comprising ten sampling sites with a 10 km separation. Species richness, abundance and diversity of soil lichen species were recorded using two sampling methods: the quadrat-intercept and the line-intercept method, to compare their performance in assessing soil lichen diversity in drylands. The number of species and Shannon diversity of saxicolous lichens were higher at intermediate values of the aridity index (AI = 0.10–0.34). Quadrat intercept and point intercept methods gave quite similar results, which means that the selected method does not influence the results in a significant way. This study confirms the role of saxicolous lichens as climate change indicators and reveals the importance of the sampling method selection in the evaluation of different parameters of soil lichen diversity in drylands.     

植物叶片性状对气候变化的响应研究进展

叶片性状反映了植物对环境的高度适应能力及其在复杂生境下的自我调控能力。叶片性状如何响应和适应气候变化是植物适应性研究的重点内容。该文系统综述了叶片大小、比叶质量、叶片氮含量、碳同位素等指标对气候变化响应的最新研究结果。不同叶片性状对气候变化的响应结果存在差异,所指示的生态学含义也有所不同。单一叶片性状不能全面地反映植物对气候变化的响应;不同尺度的研究(如环境的修饰或筛选作用的研究)还存在很多不确定性。高寒地区的研究工作相对缺乏。该文有助于理解植物与气候之间的相互关系、植物对气候变化的响应与适应对策,对了解植物演化、预测植物在未来气候变化条件下的变化特征具有一定意义。     

The influence of climatic legacies on the distribution of dryland biocrust communities

Predicting the distribution of biocrust species, mosses, lichens and liverworts associated with surface soils is difficult, but climatic legacies (changes in climate over the last 20 k years) can improve our prediction of the distribution of biocrust species. To provide empirical support for this hypothesis, we used a combination of network analyses and structural equation modelling to identify the role of climatic legacies in predicting the distribution of ecological clusters formed by species of mosses, lichens and liverworts using data from 282 large sites distributed across 0.6 million km² of eastern Australia. Two ecological clusters contained 87% of the 120 moss, lichen and liverwort species. Both clusters contained lichen, moss and liverwort species, but were dominated by different families. Sites where the air temperature increased the most over 20k years (positive temperature legacies) were associated with reductions in the relative abundance of species from the lichen (Peltulaceae and Teloschistaceae) and moss (Bryaceae) families (Cluster A species), greater groundstorey plant cover and lower soil pH. Sites where precipitation has increased over the past 20k years (positive precipitation legacy) were associated with increases in the relative abundance of lichen (Cladoniaceae, Lecideaceae and Thelotremataceae) and moss (Pottiaceae) families (Cluster B species) and lower levels of soil pH. Sites where temperatures have increased the most in the past 20k years suppressed the negative effects of plant cover on Cluster B by reducing plant cover. Increased intensity of grazing suppressed the negative effect of soil pH and the positive effect of soil carbon, on the relative abundance of Cluster B taxa. Finally, increasing temperature and precipitation legacies reduced the negative effect of soil pH on Cluster B. Understanding of the importance of climatic legacies improves our ability to predict how biocrust assemblies might respond to ongoing global environmental change associated with increasing land use intensification, increasing temperature and reduced rainfall.     

Multiple-scale environmental modulation of lichen reproduction

It is necessary to understand how environmental changes affect plant fitness to predict survival of a species, but this knowledge is scarce for lichens and complicated by their formation of sexual and asexual reproductive structures. Are the presence and number of reproductive structures in Lobaria pulmonaria, a threatened lichen, dependent on thallus size, and is their formation sequential? Does any size-dependence and sequential formation vary along a climate gradient? Generalized linear mixed models were used to explore the effect of environmental predictors on the size and presence/abundance of each reproductive structure and to determine the probability of a given-sized thallus to develop any reproductive structure. The largest individuals are more likely to develop reproductive structures, and the lichen uses a mixed strategy of early asexual reproduction and late sexual. Macro and microclimatic variables also influenced reproductive capacity. Relationships among climate conditions and lichen size and reproductive capacity can compromise the future viability of the species in the most southern populations of Europe.