全球变化情景下的中国木本植物受威胁物种名录

生物多样性正面临快速丧失的风险, 气候和土地利用变化已成为生物多样性的主要威胁之一。受威胁物种名录是区域和全球生物多样性保护的重要基础数据, 也是保护区规划的基础。作为一个生物多样性大国, 中国已开展了高等植物受威胁状况的系统性评估, 建立了受威胁植物名录, 为植物多样性保护规划提供了支撑。但由于数据和方法限制, 现有受威胁植物名录制定时未定量考虑全球变化对植物分布的潜在影响, 因而可能低估物种的受威胁等级及未来生物多样性的丧失风险。本研究基于高精度的木本植物分布数据和物种分布模型, 评估了未来气候和土地利用变化对木本植物分布的潜在影响。基于每个物种适宜分布区大小的变化, 并依据IUCN红色名录评估指标A3c的阈值标准, 更新了木本植物的受威胁等级, 补充了未来中国潜在受威胁木本植物名录。结果显示: 综合不同的气候变化情景(RCP 2.6、RCP 6.0和RCP 8.5)和扩散情景(完全扩散、20 km/10年、不扩散), 约12.9%-40.5%的木本植物被评估为受威胁物种。该名录将为制定木本植物保护优先级、开展保护区规划、提升全球变化情景下的生物多样性保护成效提供基础数据, 也为其他类群制定全面的受威胁物种名录提供参考。     

A model assessing the conservation threats to freshwater turtles of Sub-Saharan Africa predicts urgent need for continental conservation planning

Global assessment of conservation threats to several taxonomic groups are urgently needed for species living in regions of the world where field research is curtailed by logistic or economic constraints. For instance, it is now widely recognized that freshwater turtles represent one of the most endangered groups of vertebrates in the world. This situation has been particularly evident with Asian species. Although in Sub-Saharan Africa species are exposed to very similar threats (e.g., intense hunting for food and traditional medicine, habitat loss, collection for the pet trade, etc.), there is no comparable concern in the international conservation community simply because the African species are still too poorly known. Here, I propose a model for analyzing the threat levels to freshwater turtles of Sub-Saharan Africa and I test this model by taking into consideration a series of six risk variables of distribution and ecology. Each variable was categorized into five ranks (0–4) of increasing survival risk. The results, although preliminary, show a great sensitivity of most species. This strongly contrasts with the fact that apart from Malagasy endemics very few species are currently considered as threatened according to IUCN lists. There were clear differences among-families in the major threats. Softshell turtles are especially threatened because their large body size makes them a very good food source for native populations. The single podocnemidid species is also vulnerable, and is particularly sensitive to human hunting for domestic consumption. Concerning the Pelomedusidae, there are several species that are considered by the model as sensitive or highly sensitive to rarity. They are affected by a combination of threats (Extent of distribution in Sub-Saharan Africa, Habitat breadth, Habits, Likeliness of human direct/indirect persecution, and Habitat vulnerability). The conservation implications of these results are discussed.     

Tourism and recreation: a common threat to IUCN red-listed vascular plants in Europe

Tourism and recreation are large industries employing millions of people and contribute over US$2.01 trillion to the global economy. Unfortunately they also have diverse and sometimes severe environmental impacts affecting many species, including those that are rare and threatened. To assess the extent to which these industries threaten vascular plants, we reviewed data in the IUCN Red List for 462 Critically Endangered, Endangered and Vulnerable European species. Tourism and recreation were listed as threatening 42 % (194 species) of these species from across 50 families, mostly herbs (70 %). They were listed as threatening plants in 9 of the 10 bioregions in Europe and in 25 of the 40 countries assessed. Popular tourism destinations such as the Canary Islands (41 species) and mainland Spain (40 species) had the greatest diversity of species listed as threatened by tourism and recreation. The most common of these threats were trampling (61 species), plant collection (59), the maintenance/construction of tourist infrastructure (43) and habitat degradation due to the urbanisation of tourist sites (13). Additional species assessments and more research on the impacts of tourism and recreation may add to these values. It is clear that these industries pose an important threatening process on plants in Europe based on the IUCN Red List data and hence deserve greater recognition in terms of research, conservation and management.     

Human Population Density and Extinction Risk in the World's Carnivores

Understanding why some species are at high risk of extinction, while others remain relatively safe, is central to the development of a predictive conservation science. Recent studies have shown that a species' extinction risk may be determined by two types of factors: intrinsic biological traits and exposure to external anthropogenic threats. However, little is known about the relative and interacting effects of intrinsic and external variables on extinction risk. Using phylogenetic comparative methods, we show that extinction risk in the mammal order Carnivora is predicted more strongly by biology than exposure to high-density human populations. However, biology interacts with human population density to determine extinction risk: biological traits explain 80% of variation in risk for carnivore species with high levels of exposure to human populations, compared to 45% for carnivores generally. The results suggest that biology will become a more critical determinant of risk as human populations expand. We demonstrate how a model predicting extinction risk from biology can be combined with projected human population density to identify species likely to move most rapidly towards extinction by the year 2030. African viverrid species are particularly likely to become threatened, even though most are currently considered relatively safe. We suggest that a preemptive approach to species conservation is needed to identify and protect species that may not be threatened at present but may become so in the near future.     

Human Population Density and Extinction Risk in the World's Carnivores

Understanding why some species are at high risk of extinction, while others remain relatively safe, is central to the development of a predictive conservation science. Recent studies have shown that a species' extinction risk may be determined by two types of factors: intrinsic biological traits and exposure to external anthropogenic threats. However, little is known about the relative and interacting effects of intrinsic and external variables on extinction risk. Using phylogenetic comparative methods, we show that extinction risk in the mammal order Carnivora is predicted more strongly by biology than exposure to high-density human populations. However, biology interacts with human population density to determine extinction risk: biological traits explain 80% of variation in risk for carnivore species with high levels of exposure to human populations, compared to 45% for carnivores generally. The results suggest that biology will become a more critical determinant of risk as human populations expand. We demonstrate how a model predicting extinction risk from biology can be combined with projected human population density to identify species likely to move most rapidly towards extinction by the year 2030. African viverrid species are particularly likely to become threatened, even though most are currently considered relatively safe. We suggest that a preemptive approach to species conservation is needed to identify and protect species that may not be threatened at present but may become so in the near future.     

Potential impacts of future land use and climate change on the Red List status of the Proteaceae in the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa

Using spatial predictions of future threats to biodiversity, we assessed for the first time the relative potential impacts of future land use and climate change on the threat status of plant species. We thus estimated how many taxa could be affected by future threats that are usually not included in current IUCN Red List assessments. Here, we computed the Red List status including future threats of 227 Proteaceae taxa endemic to the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa, and compared this with their Red List status excluding future threats. We developed eight different land use and climate change scenarios for the year 2020, providing a range of best‐ to worst‐case scenarios. Four scenarios include only the effects of future land use change, while the other four also include the impacts of projected anthropogenic climate change (HadCM2 IS92a GGa), using niche‐based models. Up to a third of the 227 Proteaceae taxa are uplisted (become more threatened) by up to three threat categories if future threats as predicted for 2020 are included, and the proportion of threatened Proteaceae taxa rises on average by 9% (range 2–16%), depending on the scenario. With increasing severity of the scenarios, the proportion of Critically Endangered taxa increases from about 1% to 7% and almost 2% of the 227 Proteaceae taxa become Extinct because of climate change. Overall, climate change has the most severe effects on the Proteaceae, but land use change also severely affects some taxa. Most of the threatened taxa occur in low‐lying coastal areas, but the proportion of threatened taxa changes considerably in inland mountain areas if future threats are included. Our approach gives important insights into how, where and when future threats could affect species persistence and can in a sense be seen as a test of the value of planned interventions for conservation.     

Threatened reef corals of the world

A substantial proportion of the world's living species, including one-third of the reef-building corals, are threatened with extinction and in pressing need of conservation action. In order to reduce biodiversity loss, it is important to consider species' contribution to evolutionary diversity along with their risk of extinction for the purpose of setting conservation priorities. Here I reconstruct the most comprehensive tree of life for the order Scleractinia (1,293 species) that includes all 837 living reef species, and employ a composite measure of phylogenetic distinctiveness and extinction risk to identify the most endangered lineages that would not be given top priority on the basis of risk alone. The preservation of these lineages, not just the threatened species, is vital for safeguarding evolutionary diversity. Tests for phylogeny-associated patterns show that corals facing elevated extinction risk are not clustered on the tree, but species that are susceptible, resistant or resilient to impacts such as bleaching and disease tend to be close relatives. Intensification of these threats or extirpation of the endangered lineages could therefore result in disproportionate pruning of the coral tree of life.     

Phylogenetic Patterns of Extinction Risk in the Eastern Arc Ecosystems,an African Biodiversity Hotspot

There is an urgent need to reduce drastically the rate at which biodiversity is declining worldwide. Phylogenetic methods are increasingly being recognised as providing a useful framework for predicting future losses, and guiding efforts for pre-emptive conservation actions. In this study, we used a reconstructed phylogenetic tree of angiosperm species of the Eastern Arc Mountains – an important African biodiversity hotspot – and described the distribution of extinction risk across taxonomic ranks and phylogeny. We provide evidence for both taxonomic and phylogenetic selectivity in extinction risk. However, we found that selectivity varies with IUCN extinction risk category. Vulnerable species are more closely related than expected by chance, whereas endangered and critically endangered species are not significantly clustered on the phylogeny. We suggest that the general observation for taxonomic and phylogenetic selectivity (i.e. phylogenetic signal, the tendency of closely related species to share similar traits) in extinction risks is therefore largely driven by vulnerable species, and not necessarily the most highly threatened. We also used information on altitudinal distribution and climate to generate a predictive model of at-risk species richness, and found that greater threatened species richness is found at higher altitude, allowing for more informed conservation decision making. Our results indicate that evolutionary history can help predict plant susceptibility to extinction threats in the hyper-diverse but woefully-understudied Eastern Arc Mountains, and illustrate the contribution of phylogenetic approaches in conserving African floristic biodiversity where detailed ecological and evolutionary data are often lacking.     

Vertebrate browsing impacts in a threatened montane plant community and implications for management

Montane ecosystems are vulnerable to the removal of vegetation cover through browsing by feral or native vertebrate fauna. The highest elevated peaks of the Stirling Range in Western Australia provide habitat for an endemic plant community, Critically Endangered due to plant disease, frequent fire and an emerging threat of browsing by vertebrate fauna. Survey and camera trapping confirmed the herbivorous feral Rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) and native Quokka (Setonix brachyurus) are present. Dietary analysis through faecal examination revealed contrasting diets and implicates native rather than feral species as responsible for impacts on dicotyledonous species, and in particular those of conservation significance. Exclosure experiments conducted over 1 year revealed significant changes in abundance, cover and height of perennial herbs and an increase in growth and/or reproduction of four threatened endemic plants. Detrimental impacts caused by native browsing fauna are not unprecedented and may be attributed to disequilibria in ecosystem processes due to multiple interacting threats. Montane ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to browsing due to their naturally slow recovery after disturbance and browsing may also create environmental conditions more conducive to plant disease. For plant species with critically low population numbers, the impact of browsing poses a threat to population persistence and undermines investment into other conservation recovery actions. For effective management, it is critical to determine the relative impact of browsing species present. Where native species are implicated, the physical protection of high value assets in wire exclosures is warranted to complement other recovery actions and ensure effective species and community recovery.     

Genetic consequences of intensive conservation management for the Mauritius parakeet

For conservation managers tasked with recovering threatened species, genetic structure can exacerbate the rate of loss of genetic diversity because alleles unique to a sub-population are more likely to be lost by the effects of random genetic drift than if a population is panmictic. Given that intensive management techniques commonly used to recover threatened species frequently involve movement of individuals within and between populations, managers need to be aware not only of pre-existing levels of genetic structure but also of the potential effects that intensive management might have on these patterns. The Mauritius parakeet (Psittacula echo) has been the subject of an intensive conservation programme, involving translocation and reintroduction that has recovered the population from less than 20 individuals in 1987 to approximately 500 in 2010. Analysis of genotype data derived from 18 microsatellite markers developed for this species reveals a clear signal of structure in the population before intensive management began, but which subsequently disappears following management intervention. This study illustrates the impacts that conservation management can have on the genetic structure of an island endemic population and demonstrates how translocations or reintroductions can benefit populations of endangered species by reducing the risk of loss of genetic diversity.     

Threats and biodiversity in the mediterranean biome

Aim Global conservation assessments recognize the mediterranean biome as a priority for the conservation of the world's biodiversity. To better direct future conservation efforts in the biome, an improved understanding of the location, magnitude and trend of key threats and their relationship with species of conservation importance is needed. Location Mediterranean‐climate regions in California‐Baja California, Chile, South Africa, Australia and the Mediterranean Basin. Methods We undertook a systematic, pan‐regional assessment of threats in the mediterranean biome including human population density, urban area and agriculture. To realize the full implications of these threats on mediterranean biodiversity, we examined their relationship with species of conservation concern: threatened mammals at the global scale and threatened plants at the subecoregional scale in California, USA. Results Across the biome, population density and urban area increased by 13% and agriculture by 1% between 1990 and 2000. Both population density and urban area were greatest in California‐Baja California and least in Australia while, in contrast, agriculture was greatest in Australia and least in California‐Baja California. In all regions lowlands were most affected by the threats analysed, with the exception of population density in the Chilean matorral. Threatened species richness had a significant positive correlation with population density at global and subecoregional scales, while threatened species were found to increase with the amount of urban area and decrease as the amount of natural area and unfragmented core area increased. Main conclusions Threats to mediterranean biodiversity have increased from 1990 to 2000, although patterns vary both across and within the five regions. The need for future conservation efforts is further underlined by the positive correlation between species of conservation concern and the increase in population density over the last decade. Challenges to reducing threats extend beyond those analysed to include human–environmental interactions and their synergistic effects, such as urbanization and invasive species and wildfires.     

A general assessment of the conservation status and decline trends of Mexican amphibians

We present a review on the conservation status and population trends of the 372 amphibian species currently recognized for Mexico. We based our analyses on the information gathered by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature-the Global Amphibian Assessment (IUCN-GAA) as well as on available literature about imminent or potential threats to these organisms in Mexico. This country has the fifth largest amphibian fauna in the world and almost 58% of the species that inhabit this country are considered as threatened. We highlight the proportion of species per order, family, and genus that are currently under severe risk in Mexico. In addition, we prepared a detailed list of the main factors that are threatening amphibians in this country. Evidence is provided that the six main mechanisms that are globally leading amphibians to extinction (alien species, over-exploitation, land use change, global changes, pollution, and infectious diseases) are indeed currently operating in Mexico. We discuss the relative importance of each of these causes. We also highlight the paucity of quantitative studies that support the current conservation status of Mexican amphibian species.     

A Global-Scale Evaluation of Primate Exposure and Vulnerability to Climate Change

Human-induced climate change poses many potential threats to nonhuman primate species, many of which are already threatened by human activities such as deforestation, hunting, and the exotic pet trade. Here, we assessed the exposure and potential vulnerability of all nonhuman primate species to projected future temperature and precipitation changes. We found that overall, nonhuman primates will experience 10 % more warming than the global mean, with some primate species experiencing >1.5 °C for every °C of global warming. Precipitation changes are likely to be quite varied across primate ranges (from >7.5 % increases per °C of global warming to >7.5 % decreases). We also identified individual endangered species with existing vulnerabilities (owing to their small range areas, specialized diet, or restricted habitat use) that are expected to experience the largest climate changes. Finally, we defined hotspots of primate vulnerability to climate changes as areas with many primate species, high concentrations of endangered species, and large expected climate changes. Although all primate species will experience substantial changes from current climatic conditions, our hotspot analysis suggests that species in Central America, the Amazon, and southeastern Brazil, as well as portions of East and Southeast Asia, may be the most vulnerable to the anticipated impacts of global warming. It is essential that impacts of human-induced climate change be a priority for research and conservation planning in primatology, particularly for species that are already threatened by other human pressures. The vulnerable species and regional hotspots that we identify here represent critical priorities for conservation efforts, as existing challenges are expected to become increasingly compounded by the impacts of global warming.     

River dolphins can act as population trend indicators in degraded freshwater systems

Conservation attention on charismatic large vertebrates such as dolphins is often supported by the suggestion that these species represent surrogates for wider biodiversity, or act as indicators of ecosystem health. However, their capacity to act as indicators of patterns or trends in regional biodiversity has rarely been tested. An extensive new dataset of >300 last-sighting records for the Yangtze River dolphin or baiji and two formerly economically important fishes, the Yangtze paddlefish and Reeves' shad, all of which are probably now extinct in the Yangtze, was collected during an interview survey of fishing communities across the middle-lower Yangtze drainage. Untransformed last-sighting date frequency distributions for these species show similar decline curves over time, and the linear gradients of transformed last-sighting date series are not significantly different from each other, demonstrating that these species experienced correlated population declines in both timing and rate of decline. Whereas species may be expected to respond differently at the population level even in highly degraded ecosystems, highly vulnerable (e.g. migratory) species can therefore display very similar responses to extrinsic threats, even if they represent otherwise very different taxonomic, biological and ecological groupings. Monitoring the status of river dolphins or other megafauna therefore has the potential to provide wider information on the status of other threatened components of sympatric freshwater biotas, and so represents a potentially important monitoring tool for conservation management. We also show that interview surveys can provide robust quantitative data on relative population dynamics of different species.     

Impacts of tourism on threatened plant taxa and communities in Australia

Summary Many Australian plant species and communities appear to be threatened by tourism. A review of management plans, recovery plans and a survey of experts found that tourism was considered to be a direct or indirect threatening process for 72 plant taxa. This is one fifth of threatened species for which threats have been identified. In addition, many more species are listed as threatened by weeds, trampling, pathogens, clearing and collecting. These are often indirect impacts of tourism, particularly in conservation reserves where tourism is the only commercial activity permitted. Tourism was also considered to be a threatening process for several plant communities. A lack of recognition of the importance of direct and indirect impacts of tourism may potentially hinder the conservation of plant species and communities both in Australia and overseas. It may also limit the effectiveness of sustainable tourism policies, particularly in conservation reserves.     

Is there a future for the Cactaceae genera Copiapoa,Eriosyce and Eulychnia? A status report of a prickly situation

Many of Chile’s iconic cactus species are threatened by human activities and global change. In order to safeguard them from extinction, both in situ and ex situ conservation actions are urgently needed. In this paper, an overview is given of the in situ and ex situ conservation status of the mainly Chilean cactus genera Copiapoa, Eriosyce and Eulychnia, including a worldwide survey of living ex situ collections of the species of these genera. From our results, we can conclude that although the threats to Chile’s remarkable biodiversity are now recognized as an environmental problem, and efforts are underway to protect the threatened endemic flora, many of the most threatened species are currently not protected in situ. Although a higher percentage of living accessions of Copiapoa, Eriosyce and Eulychnia in ex situ collections are of known wild origin compared to results of previous studies on other plant groups, the number of available accessions is insufficient to adequately preserve the genetic diversity of the threatened species. Prospects to upscale both in situ and ex situ conservation of the studied genera are discussed.     

Extinction Risks and the Conservation of Madagascar's Reptiles

Background

An understanding of the conservation status of Madagascar''s endemic reptile species is needed to underpin conservation planning and priority setting in this global biodiversity hotspot, and to complement existing information on the island''s mammals, birds and amphibians. We report here on the first systematic assessment of the extinction risk of endemic and native non-marine Malagasy snakes, lizards, turtles and tortoises.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Species range maps from The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species were analysed to determine patterns in the distribution of threatened reptile species. These data, in addition to information on threats, were used to identify priority areas and actions for conservation. Thirty-nine percent of the data-sufficient Malagasy reptiles in our analyses are threatened with extinction. Areas in the north, west and south-east were identified as having more threatened species than expected and are therefore conservation priorities. Habitat degradation caused by wood harvesting and non-timber crops was the most pervasive threat. The direct removal of reptiles for international trade and human consumption threatened relatively few species, but were the primary threats for tortoises. Nine threatened reptile species are endemic to recently created protected areas.

Conclusions/Significance

With a few alarming exceptions, the threatened endemic reptiles of Madagascar occur within the national network of protected areas, including some taxa that are only found in new protected areas. Threats to these species, however, operate inside and outside protected area boundaries. This analysis has identified priority sites for reptile conservation and completes the conservation assessment of terrestrial vertebrates in Madagascar which will facilitate conservation planning, monitoring and wise-decision making. In sharp contrast with the amphibians, there is significant reptile diversity and regional endemism in the southern and western regions of Madagascar and this study highlights the importance of these arid regions to conserving the island''s biodiversity.     

Review article: The catastrophic impact of invasive mammalian predators on birds of the UK Overseas Territories: a review and synthesis

The UK has sovereignty over 16 Overseas Territories, which hold some of the world’s great seabird colonies and collectively support more endemic and globally threatened bird species than the whole of mainland Europe. Invasive alien mammalian predators have spread throughout most of the Territories, primarily since European expansion in the 16th century. Here we review and synthesize the scale of their impacts, historical and current, actions to reduce and reverse these impacts, and priorities for conservation. Mammalian predators have caused a catastrophic wave of extinctions and reductions in seabird colony size that mark the UKOTs as a major centre of global extinction. Mammal‐induced declines of threatened endemics and seabird colonies continue, with four Critically Endangered endemics on Gough Island (Tristan da Cunha), St Helena and Montserrat directly threatened by invasive alien House Mice Mus musculus, Feral Cats Felis catus and rats Rattus spp. Action to reduce these threats and restore islands has been modest in comparison with other developed countries, although some notable successes have occurred and a large number of ambitious eradication and conservation plans are in preparation. Priority islands for conservation action against mammalian predators include Gough (which according to one published prioritization scheme is the highest‐ranked island in the world for mammal eradication), St Helena and Montserrat, but also on Tristan da Cunha, Pitcairn and the Falkland Islands. Technical, financial and political will is required to push forward and fund the eradication of invasive mammalian predators on these islands, which would significantly reduce extinction risk for a number of globally threatened species.     

Saving Europe’s threatened flora: progress towards GSPC Target 8 in Europe

The European flora is of global significance but many species are facing an ever increasing range of threats, especially the growing impacts of climate change. While various estimates have been made for the number of threatened plant species in Europe, an up-to-date European plant Red List does not presently exist. Target 8 of the Global Strategy for Plant Conservation (GSPC) calls for 60% of threatened plant species to be conserved in ex situ collections by 2010. In the absence of a European plant Red List, it is difficult to monitor progress at the regional level towards this target. To address this gap Botanic Gardens Conservation International (BGCI) has developed a consolidated list of European threatened species as a step towards a formal Red List. The database consists of national Red List data from 28 European countries and includes records for over 11,000 taxa. National Red List data were supplemented by information on the critically endangered plants of Europe provided by the Museum National d’Histoire Naturelle/European Topic Centre on Biological Diversity and the Conservatoire Botanique National de Brest. A list of regionally threatened species was extracted from the database and screened against BGCI’s database of plants in cultivation in botanic gardens (PlantSearch) and ENSCONET’s (European Native Seed Conservation Network) database of plants conserved in European seed banks. This analysis revealed that 42% of European threatened species are currently included in ex situ conservation programmes in Europe.