Distance to the Scaling Law: A Useful Approach for Unveiling Relationships between Crime and Urban Metrics

We report on a quantitative analysis of relationships between the number of homicides, population size and ten other urban metrics. By using data from Brazilian cities, we show that well-defined average scaling laws with the population size emerge when investigating the relations between population and number of homicides as well as population and urban metrics. We also show that the fluctuations around the scaling laws are log-normally distributed, which enabled us to model these scaling laws by a stochastic-like equation driven by a multiplicative and log-normally distributed noise. Because of the scaling laws, we argue that it is better to employ logarithms in order to describe the number of homicides in function of the urban metrics via regression analysis. In addition to the regression analysis, we propose an approach to correlate crime and urban metrics via the evaluation of the distance between the actual value of the number of homicides (as well as the value of the urban metrics) and the value that is expected by the scaling law with the population size. This approach has proved to be robust and useful for unveiling relationships/behaviors that were not properly carried out by the regression analysis, such as the non-explanatory potential of the elderly population when the number of homicides is much above or much below the scaling law, the fact that unemployment has explanatory potential only when the number of homicides is considerably larger than the expected by the power law, and a gender difference in number of homicides, where cities with female population below the scaling law are characterized by a number of homicides above the power law.     

Analysis of Reproductive Parameters of Urban and Rural Population of Chuvashia

Genetic and demographic characteristics for urban and rural population of the Chuvash Republic (Chuvashes and Russians) were calculated based on 1122 questionnaires. The sibship sizes for Chuvashes were 2.05 (urban) and 2.78 (rural). For Russians these indices were 1.75 (urban) and 2.00 (rural), respectively. Crow’s index and its components were I _m = 0.04; I _f = 0.18; and I _tot = 0.22 for urban, and I _m = 0.07; I _f = 0.27; and I _tot = 0.36 for rural Chuvashes, respectively; and I _m = 0.04; I _f = 0.30; and I _tot = 0.35 for urban, and I _m = 0.03; I _f = 0.29; and I _tot = 0.33 for rural Russians, respectively.__________Translated from Genetika, Vol. 41, No. 6, 2005, pp. 850–854.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by El’chinova, Zinchenko, Kirillov, Abrukova.     

Community Structure of In-Stream Bryophytes in English and Welsh Rivers

Information on the distribution of bryophytes in mainland British rivers was collected as part of the Joint Nature Conservancy Council (JNCC) survey of in-stream macrophyte distribution between 1978 and 1997. A sub-set of sites (1604) containing the 50 most common bryophytes was analysed. The commonest of these 50 species were Fontinalis antipyretica and Rhynchostegium riparioides. The majority of species encountered are not considered to be truly aquatic. Detrended Correspondence Analysis of community structure revealed a continuum of variation in assemblages across sites rather than distinct groupings of bryophytes. Canonical Correspondence Analysis was used to analyse a sub-set of sites (625) for which water chemistry were available to test the influence of environmental variables on the distribution of bryophytes. The analysis suggested the strongest environmental gradient was the transition from lowland systems on chalk geology to steeply sloping, high altitude systems with resistant geology. Mapping CCA axis 1 scores on to a map of England and Wales suggested a geographic trend in bryophyte species distribution with community structure undergoing a transition from the upland regions and the western seaboard to the south east of England. Stepwise regression analysis confirmed the importance of the upland lowland trend, showing that substrate size, altitude of source, distance to source and altitude were important predictors of species richness (p < 0.0001, adjusted R² = 0.30).     

Urban Scaling of Cities in the Netherlands

We investigated the socioeconomic scaling behavior of all cities with more than 50,000 inhabitants in the Netherlands and found significant superlinear scaling of the gross urban product with population size. Of these cities, 22 major cities have urban agglomerations and urban areas defined by the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics. For these major cities we investigated the superlinear scaling for three separate modalities: the cities defined as municipalities, their urban agglomerations and their urban areas. We find superlinearity with power-law exponents of around 1.15. But remarkably, both types of agglomerations underperform if we compare for the same size of population an agglomeration with a city as a municipality. In other words, an urban system as one formal municipality performs better as compared to an urban agglomeration with the same population size. This effect is larger for the second type of agglomerations, the urban areas. We think this finding has important implications for urban policy, in particular municipal reorganizations. A residual analysis suggests that cities with a municipal reorganization recently and in the past decades have a higher probability to perform better than cities without municipal restructuring.     

Urban Cats: Their Demography,Population Density,and Owner Characteristics in Baltimore,Maryland

Abstract

A door-to-door questionnaire survey of 430 households in two areas of Baltimore showed significant differences in cat ownership that were attributable to racial composition. Overall, 29.9% of white households owned a mean of 1.9 cats per cat-owning household, compared to 6.8% of black households owning a mean of 1.0 cat per cat-owning household. The mean age of cats was 3.9 yrs and 1.8 yrs in white and black households, respectively. In contrast, dog ownership in the two areas was nearly identical, with 25.6% of white and 29.1% of black households owning a mean of 1.5 and 1.3 dogs per dog-owning household, respectively. Overall, 62.8% of owned cats were spayed/neutered, 51.8% had received a vaccination in the last year, and 34.7% had been wormed during their lifetimes. A total of 31.6% of households allowed their cats to free-range; 42.5% of the 87 owned cats were in this category. The estimated densities of owned free-ranging cats were 7.0 and 2.8 cats per hectare, for the two areas. Driving counts of free-ranging animals in the two areas suggested a larger population of stray or feral cats in the location with lower reported cat ownership.     

Relationships Between Population Growth and Population Density in Monocultures of Larix leptolepis

One year-old Japanese larch (Larix leptolepis) seedlings were planted in a nursery from 1984 to 1986 at four density levels with four replicates in order to investigate the relationships between plant growth and density of survivors. As the results shown, self-thinning occurred severely in populations growing at high densities. The rate of the self-thinning followed a trajectory defined by the 3/2 power law. The relationship between mean dry weight per tree and population density at a given stage of growth followed the reciprocal equation and power equation at early experimental stages, but changed gradually to follow the 3/2 power law as plants grew further. Shch a change was mainly caused by the constant basal area per ms and decreased growth of tree height along a gradient of the density. The relationship between tree height (h) and density (p) also be discussed and in the 3/2 power law system it could be described by an equation consisting of h=αp（-1/2） where α is a constant.     

Raccoon Density and Movements After Population Reduction to Control Rabies

ABSTRACT Population reduction (PR) and trap-vaccinate-release (TVR) were used to control an outbreak of the raccoon (Procyon lotor) variant of rabies in Ontario, Canada, during 1999. Raccoon density declined significantly following PR; however, density increased significantly 9–10 months post-PR. Recolonization of PR areas with raccoons marked in TVR areas was very low with only 1.8% (32/1,759) of those raccoons dispersing into PR areas during 1999–2000. In addition, the number of raccoons dispersing from TVR areas into PR areas was not significantly greater than the number of raccoons dispersing into treatment areas where population reduction had not been implemented during 1999–2000. Raccoon movements in this study, determined by mark-recapture, averaged < 4.0 km during 1999–2000 and did not differ among treatments (with or without PR). In summary, there was not a mass exodus of raccoons from TVR areas to PR areas during 1999–2000, suggesting there was not an immediate, dramatic, vacuum effect drawing raccoons into areas devoid of raccoons due to PR. However, one year post-PR, raccoon populations were near or above pre-PR densities (due to a high reproductive rate of resident raccoons), suggesting that PR would have to be an annual event if rabies is not eliminated from an area.     

Counsellors in English and Welsh general practices: their nature and distribution.

OBJECTIVE--To establish the prevalence of counselling services in English and Welsh general practices and factors associated with their distribution; to describe qualifications, working arrangements, and case mix of "counsellors." DESIGN--Postal questionnaire and telephone interview survey of a sample of about one in 20 general practitioners in England and Wales. SETTING--English and Welsh general practices. SUBJECTS--1880 general practitioners of whom 1542 (82%) completed questionnaires. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Prevalence and distribution of practice counselling services; counsellors'' qualifications and funding; types of patients referred. RESULTS--586 counsellors were distributed among 484 of the 1542 practices. Three types of counsellor predominated: community psychiatric nurses (187); "practice counsellors" (145); and clinical psychologists (95). Practice characteristics which independently predicted the presence of a counsellor were for community psychiatric nurses four or more partners (odds = 1.72, 95% confidence interval 1.18 to 2.26); for practice counsellors stress clinic (odds = 2.22; 1.83 to 2.61), training practice (odds = 1.70; 1.24 to 2.16), and health region (chi 2 = 55.94; df = 14; p < 0.001); and for clinical psychologists list size of > or = 10,500 (odds = 1.79; 1.09 to 2.49), training practice (odds = 1.78; 1.31 to 2.25), health region (chi 2 = 48.31; df = 14; p < 0.001). 197 counsellors had training in counselling. The qualifications of 85 were unknown to the general practitioner. The principal source of funding was the district health authority for community psychiatric nurses (150) and clinical psychologists (58) and the family health services authority for practice counsellors (76). All counsellors were referred a wide range of problems. CONCLUSIONS--Counselling services are wide-spread in general practice, but a high proportion of counsellors lack qualifications, and many may be referred problems outside their knowledge.     

Soluble Carbohydrates and Floret Fertility in Wheat in Relation to Population Density Stress

Wheat, variety Sonalika, was grown at different densities inboth field and pots during the winter seasons 1983–84and 1984–85. Grain yield pattern of the spikelets of themain shoot inflorescence was similar in both the field and pots,the spikelets in the middle part of the ear contributed mostand yield per spikelet decreased progressively towards the apexand the base. Increased population density decreased yield ofgrain, primarily by decreasing spikelet number and the fertilityof florets. High population density accelerated growth of thespike for some time during the pre-anthesis period and the solublecarbohydrate concentration was also higher under these conditions.During both anthesis and post-anthesis, the soluble carbohydrateconcentration and the growth of the spike declined much fasterin the high-density population. High density also decreasedthe floret fertility and growth in dry weight in all the spikelets,but it was more severe on the basal spikelets, resulting incomplete sterility of the florets at these nodes. The solublecarbohydrate concentration of these slow-growing, sterile, basalspikelets was found to be higher in comparison to that of fertilespikelets in the middle and top positions within the ear. Soluble carbohydrates, spike, spikelet, fertility, grain number     

Response to Predation Risk in Urban and Rural House Sparrows

Habitat urbanization may change the density of predators, and it is often assumed that such changes lead to altered predation risk for urban populations of their prey. Although it is difficult to study predation hazard directly, behavior responses of prey species may be informative in inferring such habitat differences. In this study, we compared the risk‐taking behavior of urban and rural house sparrows (Passer domesticus) after simulated attacks by two of their important predators (sparrowhawk Accipiter nisus and domestic cat Felis catus). The birds were startled by moving dummies of these predators and respective control objects, and their risk taking was estimated as their latency to feed after the startle. We found that sparrows responded more strongly (had longer post‐startle feeding latencies) to sparrowhawk attacks than to the control object, and their responses differed between the habitats. First, risk taking of urban birds strongly decreased with age (older birds had longer latencies than young birds), while there was no such age difference in rural birds. Second, young urban birds responded less strongly, while older urban birds responded more strongly to the sparrowhawk than the same age groups of rural birds, respectively. We did not succeed in evoking antipredatory response by simulated cat attacks, because birds responded similarly to the dummy and the control object. Our results support that predation risk, posed at least by avian predators, is different in urban and rural habitats of house sparrows. The increased wariness of older, hence presumably more experienced, urban birds implies that sparrows may be more exposed to predation in cities.     

Rural Villagers and Urban Residents Exposure to Poultry in China

Patterns of poultry exposure in rural and urban areas in China have not been systematically evaluated and compared. The objective of our study is to investigate patterns in human exposure to poultry in rural and urban China. We conducted a two-stage household-based clustered survey on population exposure to live/sick/dead poultry in Xiuning and Shenzhen. Half of the rural households (51%) in Xiuning raised poultry, mostly (78%) free-range. Around half of those households (40%) allowed poultry to stay in their living areas. One quarter of villagers reported having contact with sick or dead poultry. In Shenzhen, 37% urban residents visited live poultry markets. Among these, 40% purchased live poultry and 16% touched the poultry or cages during purchase. Our findings indicated that human exposure to poultry was different in rural and urban areas in China. This discrepancy could contribute to the observed differences in epidemiologic characteristics between urban and rural cases of influenza A(H7N9) and A(H5N1) virus infection.     

Bycatch and discarding patterns of dogfish and sharks taken in English and Welsh commercial fisheries

At-sea observer programmes can provide spatio-temporal data on the sizes and quantities of fish being either discarded or retained, including for species and size categories that may not be sampled effectively during scientific surveys. Such data were analysed for English and Welsh fisheries operating on the continental shelf of the North Sea ecoregion (ICES Divisions 4a–c and 7d) and Celtic Seas ecoregion (ICES Divisions 6a, 7a–c, e–k) for the period (2002–2016). These data were collated for four main gear types: beamtrawl, nephrops and otter trawls, and nets (including gillnets, tangle nets and trammel nets). Beamtrawlers caught proportionally more smaller individuals than otter trawlers, whilst nets were the most size-selective gear for larger sharks. Size-related discarding was observed, with smaller spurdog Squalus acanthias and starry smooth-hound Mustelus asterias (< 60 cm total length, L_T) usually being discarded. Such size-based selection was not evident for lesser-spotted dogfish Scyliorhinus canicula, which was generally landed as bait. Temporal changes in the discard–retention patterns were evident for S. acanthias and porbeagle Lamna nasus, with increased regulatory discarding as management measures became restrictive. A corresponding increase in the proportion of the non-quota M. asterias retained was also observed over the study period. Knowledge of the size-based discard–retention patterns by métier can also help inform on where future studies on discard survival could usefully be undertaken.     

Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size

The size of the human population is relevant to the development of a sustainable world, yet the forces setting growth or declines in the human population are poorly understood. Generally, population growth rates depend on whether new individuals compete for the same energy (leading to Malthusian or density-dependent growth) or help to generate new energy (leading to exponential and super-exponential growth). It has been hypothesized that exponential and super-exponential growth in humans has resulted from carrying capacity, which is in part determined by energy availability, keeping pace with or exceeding the rate of population growth. We evaluated the relationship between energy use and population size for countries with long records of both and the world as a whole to assess whether energy yields are consistent with the idea of an increasing carrying capacity. We find that on average energy use has indeed kept pace with population size over long time periods. We also show, however, that the energy-population scaling exponent plummets during, and its temporal variability increases preceding, periods of social, political, technological, and environmental change. We suggest that efforts to increase the reliability of future energy yields may be essential for stabilizing both population growth and the global socio-economic system.     

Relationship of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus Population Density to Mortality of Pinus sylvestris

Seven-month-old Scots pine seedlings were inoculated with water or culture filtrate (controls), with 10,000, or 20,000 (experiment 1), and with 2,500 (experiment 2) Bursaphelenchus xylophilus B.C. isolate nematodes and maintained under defined experimental conditions. Controls did not develop pine wilt disease over a 2-month period. In experiment 1, less than 50% of the inoculum was recovered from the nematode-inoculated seedlings in the first 48 hours, after which the nematode population of both treatments increased exponentially resulting in pine death and approximately equal populations at 216 hours after inoculation. In the second experiment, plant mortality, which was always preceded by 2-3 days of chlorosis and associated stem vascular necrosis, first occurred 14 days after inoculation. The nematode population increased until about day 40 after inoculation and declined thereafter. Nematodes extracted from the roots 2 weeks after inoculation accounted for ca.15% of the total number of nematodes per pine. The study indicates that the rate of nematode reproduction is a factor in pine wilt disease. However, the lack of a linear correlation between the number of nematodes and the timing of pine mortality suggests that the timing of pine death may also depend on the location of nematode damage to the host tissue.     

羊草种群密度与生长动态研究

 通过人为控制种群密度的栽培实验,从基株和构件水平上观察羊草无性系种群的生长动态,分析不同密度水平上羊草种群通过调节种群的生长、发育、增殖以及死亡过程来适应密度制约的途径。研究结果表明：1)羊草种群密度可在不同的构件水平间得到调节。当基株密度得到适当调节后便可减缓构件密度(无性系枝条、根茎芽等)的变化幅度和影响构件的发育进程。2)无性系枝条是羊草种群的主体,常在生长季后期出现大量增长,都处于生长旺盛的幼苗期,为翌年春季的返青积累能量和物质。3)单位面积总生物量随密度增加而提高,虽然尚未出现产量恒值现象,但存活枝条平均单株重(地上生物量)随密度增加呈下降趋势,这已反映出密度制约的作用。4)不同密度下羊草种群的生殖过程表现为：低密度时以无性繁殖为主,根茎芽的存活力较高;高密度时以有性繁殖为主,生殖分配值较大。     

Home Range and Population Density of Fishers in Eastern Ontario

Abstract: Fishers (Martes pennanti) were almost extirpated in Ontario, Canada, south of the French and Mattawa rivers by the 1940s but have recolonized much of their former range over the past several decades. We assessed the effect of the current harvest quota on a fisher population in eastern Ontario by estimating home range size and population density from a sample of radiocollared animals. Mean (± SD) adult home ranges (based on annual 95% min. convex polygons) were consistently smaller than those reported in the literature (M: 11 ± 4.4 km²; F: 2.1 ± 0.8 km²), with up to 71% overlap of adjacent intrasexual home ranges. This yielded an estimated adult fisher population density of 32.7/100 km² of suitable habitat, as defined by the habitat composition within observed home ranges. We further estimated that between 2003 and 2005, trappers harvested 17.8-42.3% of the pretrapping population. These results suggest that although current fisher population density is high in our study area compared to reported densities in other areas, harvest rate is also high and an increase in quota is unwarranted.     

Obesity and Cardio-Metabolic Risk Factors in an Urban and Rural Population in the Ashanti Region-Ghana: A Comparative Cross-Sectional Study

There is a surge in chronic diseases in the developing world, driven by a high prevalence of cardio-metabolic risk factors. This study described differences in prevalence of obesity and cardio-metabolic risk factors between urban and rural settlements in the Ashanti Region of Ghana. This comparative cross-sectional study included 672 participants (median age 50 years), of which 312 were from Kumasi (urban) and 360 from Jachie-Pramso (rural). Demographic, anthropometric and other cardio-metabolic risk factors were gathered and venous blood samples were drawn for biochemical assays. Results suggested significant differences in diastolic blood pressure (80.0 mmHg vs 79.5 mmHg; p = 0.0078), and fasting blood sugar (5.0 mmo/l vs 4.5 mmol/l; p < 0.0001) between the two groups. Further differences in anthropometric measures suggested greater adiposity amongst participants in the urban area. Participants in the urban area were more likely than rural participants, to have high total cholesterol and LDL-c (p < 0.0001 respectively). Risk factors including BMI ≥ 25 (p < 0.0001), BMI ≥ 30 (p < 0.0001), high waist circumference (p < 0.0001), high waist-to-height ratio (p < 0.0001) and alcohol consumption (p = 0.0186) were more prevalent amongst participants in the urban area. Markers of adiposity were higher amongst females than males in both areas (p < 0.05). In the urban area, hypertension, diabetes and lifestyle risk factors were more prevalent amongst males than females. Differences in risk factors by urban / rural residence remained significant after adjusting for gender and age. Obesity and cardio-metabolic risk factors are more prevalent amongst urban settlers, highlighting an urgent need to avert the rise of diet and lifestyle-related chronic diseases.     

Distribution of mental health professionals working on site in English and Welsh general practices.

OBJECTIVE--To describe the nature and distribution of mental health professionals working on site in general practices. DESIGN--Postal questionnaire and telephone interview survey. SETTING--English and Welsh general practices. SUBJECTS--1880 general practitioners, of whom 1542 (82%) responded. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Prevalence, types, and distribution of mental health professionals working on site among general practices. Factors predicting the presence of mental health professionals on site. RESULTS--The number of practices reporting the presence on site of each type of professional were 528 for community psychiatric nurses; 266 for practice counsellors; 177 for clinical psychologists; 132 for psychiatrists; 96 for psychiatric social workers; and 45 for psychotherapists. Mental health professionals tended to cluster together in practices more often than expected by chance alone. Practice characteristics which independently predicted the presence of a mental health professional on site were having four or more partners; being a training practice; and running stress, bereavement, or other mental health clinics. The proportions of practices with mental health professionals on site varied significantly among health regions. There was no association between the presence of mental health professionals on site and the location of practices, the social class mix of patients, or the estimated percentage of elderly patients or patients of non-European origin. CONCLUSIONS--Mental health professionals tend to cluster together, with a preponderance in larger training practices. Specialist mental health care provision within general practices is unevenly distributed. Further research is needed to determine whether this uneven distribution reflects differences in need or inequalities in the provision of mental health services.