On the uniqueness of endemic equilibria of an HIV/AIDS transmission model for a heterogeneous population

In this paper, we examine an HIV/AIDS transmission model which has been widely used for studying the spread of HIV/AIDS through sexual contact. Some sufficient conditions are obtained for the uniqueness of endemic equilibrium. We also present a two-group model whose no-disease equilibrium is unstable but it has at least three positive endemic equilibria.     

具有年龄结构的接种流行病模型正平衡解的全局稳定性

研究一个具有年龄结构的接种SIS流行病模型正平衡解的稳定性,先利用等价积分方程给出了正平衡解存在的充分条件,再利用迭代方法及函数的单调性,得到了零平衡解与正平衡解全局稳定的充分条件。     

变时滞SIS流行病模型的稳定性分析

研究了一类时滞SIS流行病模型,分析了该模型无病平衡点和地方平衡点的存在性,得到了无病平衡点全局指数渐近稳定和地方病平衡点局部指数渐近稳定的充分条件,同时给出了地方病平衡点吸引区域的估计。     

Existence, multiplicity and stability of endemic states for an age-structured S-I epidemic model

We study an S-I type epidemic model in an age-structured population, with mortality due to the disease. A threshold quantity is found that controls the stability of the disease-free equilibrium and guarantees the existence of an endemic equilibrium. We obtain conditions on the age-dependence of the susceptibility to infection that imply the uniqueness of the endemic equilibrium. An example with two endemic equilibria is shown. Finally, we analyse numerically how the stability of the endemic equilibrium is affected by the extra-mortality and by the possible periodicities induced by the demographic age-structure.     

On the transmission of HIV with self-protective behavior and preferred mixing

An epidemic model of HIV transmission with self-protective behavior and preferred mixing is presented. Individuals in the model are assumed to choose their levels of risk behavior by comparing the costs and benefits of self-protective actions. Unlike in models which treat individual risk behavior as exogenously given and fixed, the condition under which an endemic steady state equilibrium exists does not depend on the extent of assortative mixing in the population. Specifically, a unique endemic equilibrium exists when the basic reproductive number of the disease, which is given in the model by the expected number of secondary infections caused by an infected individual in the absence of any self-protection, is strictly greater than one. Otherwise, the disease-free equilibrium is the only steady state equilibrium. With respect to changes in contact patterns, it is shown that, if the degree of preferred mixing is increased, the disease prevalence can decrease in the high-risk subpopulation consisting of individuals who are more likely to engage in unsafe practices. The situation is reversed for the low-risk subpopulation, which is composed of individuals who are less willing to engage in risky practices, so that increasing the likelihood of mixing with members of one's own group may increase the prevalence level within the low-risk subpopulation.     

Rational behavioral response and the transmission of STDs

The susceptible-infected (SI) model is extended by allowing for individual optimal choices of self-protective actions against infection, where agents differ with respect to preferences and costs of self-protection. It is shown that a unique endemic equilibrium prevalence exists when the basic reproductive number of a STD is strictly greater than unity, and that the disease-free equilibrium is the unique steady state equilibrium when the basic reproductive number is less than or equal to one. Unlike in models that take individual behavior as given and fixed, the endemic equilibrium prevalence need not vary monotonically with respect to the basic reproductive number. Specifically, with endogenously determined self-protective behavior, a reduction in the basic reproductive number may in fact increase the endemic equilibrium prevalence. The global stability of the endemic steady state is established for the case of a homogeneous population by showing that, for any non-zero initial disease prevalence, there exists an equilibrium path which converges to the endemic steady state.     

Analysis of SIR epidemic models with nonlinear incidence rate and treatment

This paper deals with the nonlinear dynamics of a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate, vertical transmission, vaccination for the newborns of susceptible and recovered individuals, and the capacity of treatment. It is assumed that the treatment rate is proportional to the number of infectives when it is below the capacity and constant when the number of infectives reaches the capacity. Under some conditions, it is shown that there exists a backward bifurcation from an endemic equilibrium, which implies that the disease-free equilibrium coexists with an endemic equilibrium. In such a case, reducing the basic reproduction number less than unity is not enough to control and eradicate the disease, extra measures are needed to ensure that the solutions approach the disease-free equilibrium. When the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, the model can have multiple endemic equilibria due to the effect of treatment, vaccination and other parameters. The existence and stability of the endemic equilibria of the model are analyzed and sufficient conditions on the existence and stability of a limit cycle are obtained. Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the analytical results.     

The spread and persistence of infectious diseases in structured populations

A basic assumption of many epidemic models is that populations are composed of a homogeneous group of randomly mixing individuals. This is not a realistic assumption. Most actual populations are divided into a number of subpopulations, within which there may be relatively random mixing, but among which there is nonrandom mixing. As a consequence of the structuring of the population, there are several sources of heterogeneity within populations that can affect the course of an infection through the population. Two of these sources of heterogeneity are differences in contact number between subpopulations, and differences in the patterns of contact among subpopulations. A model for the spread of a disease in such a population is described. The model considers two levels of interaction: interactions between individuals within a subpopulation because of geographic proximity, and interactions between individuals of the same or different subpopulations because of attendance at common social functions. Because of this structure, it is possible to analyze with the model both heterogeneity in contact number and variation in the patterns of contact. A stability analysis of the model is presented which shows that there is a unique threshold for disease maintenance. Below the threshold the disease goes extinct, and the equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Above the threshold, the extinction equilibrium is unstable, and there is a unique endemic equilibrium. The analysis presents a sufficient condition for disease maintenance, which determines critical subpopulation sizes above which the disease cannot go extinct. The condition is a simple inequality relating the removal rate of infectives to the infection rate of susceptibles. In addition, bounds on the actual threshold and the effect of symmetry in the interaction matrix on the threshold are presented.     

一类含分布时滞的流行病模型的研究

提出了一类含分布时滞的流行病模型,利用构造李亚普诺夫泛函的方法,得到了无病平衡点和地方病平衡点全局稳定性的结论,揭示了平均时滞对各类平衡点稳定性的影响。     

Three stage AIDS incubation period: a worst case scenario using addict-needle interaction assumptions

In this paper we develop and analyse a model for the spread of HIV/AIDS amongst a population of injecting drug users. We start off with a brief literature survey and review; this is followed by the derivation of a model which allows addicts to progress through three distinct stages of variable infectivity prior to the onset of full blown AIDS and where the class of infectious needles is split into three according to the different levels of infectivity in addicts. Given the structure of this model we are required to make assumptions regarding the interaction of addicts and needles of different infectivity levels. We deliberately choose these assumptions so that our model serves as an upper bound for the prevalence of HIV under the assumption of a three stage AIDS incubation period. We then perform an equilibrium and stability analysis on this model. We find that there is a critical threshold parameter R(0) which determines the behaviour of the model. If R(0)< or =1, then irrespective of the initial conditions of the system HIV will die out in all addicts and all needles. If R(0)>1, then there is a unique endemic equilibrium which is locally stable if, as is realistic, the time scale on which addicts inject is much shorter than that of the other epidemiological and demographic processes. Simulations indicate that if R(0)>1, then provided that disease is initially present in at least one addict or needle it will tend to the endemic equilibrium. In addition we derive conditions which guarantee this. We also find that under calibration the long term prevalence of disease in our variable infectivity model is always greater than in an equivalent constant infectivity model. These results are confirmed and explored further by simulation. We conclude with a short discussion.     

一类具有时滞和阶段结构的SIS传染病模型的稳定性与持久性

研究一类具有时滞和阶段结构的SIS传染病模型.通过分析特征方程,讨论了系统平衡点的局部稳定性,根据比较定理讨论了无病平衡点的全局稳定性,并证明了当地方病平衡点存在时系统是一致持续生存的.     

Analysis of a dengue disease transmission model

A model for the transmission of dengue fever in a constant human population and variable vector population is discussed. A complete global analysis is given, which uses the results of the theory of competitive systems and stability of periodic orbits, to establish the global stability of the endemic equilibrium. The control measures of the vector population are discussed in terms of the threshold condition, which governs the existence and stability of the endemic equilibrium.     

Differential susceptibility epidemic models

We formulate compartmental differential susceptibility (DS) susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) models by dividing the susceptible population into multiple subgroups according to the susceptibility of individuals in each group. We analyze the impact of disease-induced mortality in the situations where the number of contacts per individual is either constant or proportional to the total population. We derive an explicit formula for the reproductive number of infection for each model by investigating the local stability of the infection-free equilibrium. We further prove that the infection-free equilibrium of each model is globally asymptotically stable by qualitative analysis of the dynamics of the model system and by utilizing an appropriately chosen Liapunov function. We show that if the reproductive number is greater than one, then there exists a unique endemic equilibrium for all of the DS models studied in this paper. We prove that the endemic equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable for the models with no disease-induced mortality and the models with contact numbers proportional to the total population. We also provide sufficient conditions for the stability of the endemic equilibrium for other situations. We briefly discuss applications of the DS models to optimal vaccine strategies and the connections between the DS models and predator-prey models with multiple prey populations or host-parasitic interaction models with multiple hosts are also given.This research was partially supported by the Department of Energy under contracts W-7405-ENG-36 and the Applied Mathematical Sciences Program KC-07-01-01.     

Public avoidance and epidemics: insights from an economic model

In this paper, we present a mathematical model of infectious disease transmission in which people can engage in public avoidance behavior to minimize the likelihood of acquiring an infection. The framework employs the economist's theory of utility maximization to model people's decision regarding their level of public avoidance. We derive the reproductive number of a disease which determines whether an endemic equilibrium exists or not. We show that when the contact function exhibits saturation, an endemic equilibrium must be unique. Otherwise, multiple endemic equilibria that differ in disease prevalence can coexist, and which one the population gets to depends on initial conditions. Even when a unique endemic equilibrium exists, people's preferences and the initial conditions may determine whether the disease will eventually die out or become endemic. Public health policies that increase the recovery rate or encourage self-quarantine by infected people can be beneficial to the community by lowering disease prevalence. However, it is also possible for these policies to worsen the situation and cause prevalence to rise since these measures give people less incentive to engage in public avoidance behavior. We also show that implementing policies that result in a higher level of public avoidance behavior in equilibrium does not necessarily lower prevalence and can result in more infections.     

一类疫苗预防接种具有效期性的SIRS模型稳定性分析

研究了一类预防接种下疫苗具有有效期的SIRS传染病模型,得到了决定疾病绝灭与否的闽值,给出了无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的全局稳定性的充分条件,最后借助Matlab软件进行了数值模拟．     

Global Hopf bifurcation analysis of an susceptible-infective-removed epidemic model incorporating media coverage with time delay

An susceptible-infective-removed epidemic model incorporating media coverage with time delay is proposed. The stability of the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium is studied. And then, the conditions which guarantee the existence of local Hopf bifurcation are given. Furthermore, we show that the local Hopf bifurcation implies the global Hopf bifurcation after the second critical value of delay. The obtained results show that the time delay in media coverage can not affect the stability of the disease-free equilibrium when the basic reproduction number is less than unity. However, the time delay affects the stability of the endemic equilibrium and produces limit cycle oscillations while the basic reproduction number is greater than unity. Finally, some examples for numerical simulations are included to support the theoretical prediction.     

Diseases with chronic stage in a population with varying size

An epidemiological model of hepatitis C with a chronic infectious stage and variable population size is introduced. A non-structured baseline ODE model which supports exponential solutions is discussed. The normalized version where the unknown functions are the proportions of the susceptible, infected, and chronic individuals in the total population is analyzed. It is shown that sustained oscillations are not possible and the endemic proportions either approach the disease-free or an endemic equilibrium. The expanded model incorporates the chronic age of the individuals. Partial analysis of this age-structured model is carried out. The global asymptotic stability of the infection-free state is established as well as local asymptotic stability of the endemic non-uniform steady state distribution under some additional conditions. A numerical method for the chronic-age-structured model is introduced. It is shown that this numerical scheme is consistent and convergent of first order. Simulations based on the numerical method suggest that in the structured case the endemic equilibrium may be unstable and sustained oscillations are possible. Closer look at the reproduction number reveals that treatment strategies directed towards speeding up the transition from acute to chronic stage in effect contribute to the eradication of the disease.     

Effects of quarantine in six endemic models for infectious diseases

Thresholds, equilibria, and their stability are found for SIQS and SIQR epidemiology models with three forms of the incidence. For most of these models, the endemic equilibrium is asymptotically stable, but for the SIQR model with the quarantine-adjusted incidence, the endemic equilibrium is an unstable spiral for some parameter values and periodic solutions arise by Hopf bifurcation. The Hopf bifurcation surface and stable periodic solutions are found numerically.     

Dynamics of an epidemic model with non-local infections for diseases with latency over a patchy environment

In this paper, with the assumptions that an infectious disease in a population has a fixed latent period and the latent individuals of the population may disperse, we formulate an SIR model with a simple demographic structure for the population living in an n-patch environment (cities, towns, or countries, etc.). The model is given by a system of delay differential equations with a fixed delay accounting for the latency and a non-local term caused by the mobility of the individuals during the latent period. Assuming irreducibility of the travel matrices of the infection related classes, an expression for the basic reproduction number R₀{\mathcal{R}_0} is derived, and it is shown that the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R₀ < 1{\mathcal{R}_0 < 1} , and becomes unstable if ${\mathcal{R}_0 > 1}${\mathcal{R}_0 > 1} . In the latter case, there is at least one endemic equilibrium and the disease will be uniformly persistent. When n = 2, two special cases allowing reducible travel matrices are considered to illustrate joint impact of the disease latency and population mobility on the disease dynamics. In addition to the existence of the disease free equilibrium and interior endemic equilibrium, the existence of a boundary equilibrium and its stability are discussed for these two special cases.     

一类总人口在变化的HIV/AIDS传播的动力学模型

建立了HIV/AIDS传播的具有常数移民和指数出生的SI型模型,其中易感人群按照有无不良行为被分为两组.分别对具双线性传染率和具标准传染率的模型讨论了其无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的存在性,并就某些重要的特殊情况进行了平衡点和稳定性的分析.