Increased Summer Temperatures Reduce the Growth and Regeneration of Larix sibirica in Southern Boreal Forests of Eastern Kazakhstan

The larch forests at the southern limit of the Siberian boreal forest in Central Asia have repeatedly experienced strong recent growth declines attributed to decreasing summer precipitation in the course of climate warming. Here, we present evidence from the southernmost Larix sibirica forests in eastern Kazakhstan that these declines are primarily caused by a decrease in effective moisture due to increasing summer temperatures, despite constant annual, and summer precipitation. Tree-ring chronologies (>800 trees) showed a reduction by 50–80% in mean ring width and an increase in the frequency of missing rings since the 1970s. Climate-response analysis revealed a stronger (negative) effect of summer temperature (in particular of the previous year’s June and July temperature) on radial growth than summer precipitation (positive effect). It is assumed that a rise in the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit, which typically increases with temperature, is negatively affecting tree water status and radial growth, either directly or indirectly through reduced soil moisture. Larch rejuvenation ceased in the 1950s, which is partly explained by increasing topsoil desiccation in a warmer climate and a high drought susceptibility of larch germination, as was demonstrated by a germination experiment with variable soil moisture levels. The lack of regeneration and the reduced annual stem increment suggest that sustainable forest management aiming at timber harvesting is no longer feasible in these southern boreal forests. Progressive climate warming is likely to cause a future northward shift of the southern limit of the boreal forest.     

Recent drought stress leads to growth reductions in Larix sibirica in the western Khentey,Mongolia

Trends in air temperature and precipitation in the forest‐steppe ecotone of the western Khentey, northern Mongolia were studied and related to stem increment and shoot water relations in Mongolia's most common tree species, Siberian larch (Larix sibirica). The area has been subject to a significant increase of summer temperature and a decrease of summer precipitation during the last 47 years. Tree‐ring width series from >400 larch trees show a strongly decreasing annual increment since the 1940s. The onset of this decrease is independent of the age of the trees and, therefore, can be attributed to the increasing aridity in the 20th century. Simultaneously to the declining annual increment, regeneration of Siberian larch decreased as well; today regeneration is virtually lacking in the larch forests on mountain slopes of the western Khentey. Measurements of shoot water potentials during the growing season exhibited daily minimum water potentials close to the point of zero turgor for extended periods. The drought stress indicated by these results is in line with the current low annual increment. Trees in the forest interior were more severely stressed and grow more slowly than trees at the forest line to steppe. This is attributable to the recent increase in aridity, as the stand density and probably also the trees themselves in the forest interior are adapted to moister conditions, whereas the trees at the forest edge have always been exposed to a more extreme microclimate. The progressing increase in aridity during the 21st century that is predicted for the western Khentey, suggests a future decline of larch forests. A widespread increase of aridity predicted for most parts of the Mongolian forest belt, suggests even a supra‐regional decline of larch.     

Dynamics of structure and biological productivity of post-fire larch forests in the Northern Mongolia

Peculiarities of forming and growth of post-fire larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) forests at the southern range of their distribution in the Northern Mongolia were studied. Regularities of the stand structure and dynamics of biological productivity are analyzed and discussed in the paper. It has been proved that the structure of the organic mass of the post-fire herb-carex type larch tree stands at the southern border of forest vegetation distribution is closely related to their biometric indices as-age, density, and productivity. In comparison with tree stands from the other areas of forest vegetation, the total phytomass stock of larch phytocenoses appropriately increases by zonal gradient from forest-tundra border to the Transbaikalian southern taiga and northern regions of Mongolia. Regeneration of forest cover by edificator and formation of the original larch coenopopulation is a positive trend from an environmental point of view, because the Siberian larch in young and middle-age period in the area has a sufficiently high growth energy and rate of phytomass production, with more than twice exceeding mature forests in fixed carbon of the atmosphere and has positive values of carbon balance and total destruction of organic matter by the “input-output” parameters.     

Higher climate warming sensitivity of Siberian larch in small than large forest islands in the fragmented Mongolian forest steppe

Forest fragmentation has been found to affect biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in multiple ways. We asked whether forest size and isolation in fragmented woodlands influences the climate warming sensitivity of tree growth in the southern boreal forest of the Mongolian Larix sibirica forest steppe, a naturally fragmented woodland embedded in grassland, which is highly affected by warming, drought, and increasing anthropogenic forest destruction in recent time. We examined the influence of stand size and stand isolation on the growth performance of larch in forests of four different size classes located in a woodland‐dominated forest‐steppe area and small forest patches in a grassland‐dominated area. We found increasing climate sensitivity and decreasing first‐order autocorrelation of annual stemwood increment with decreasing stand size. Stemwood increment increased with previous year's June and August precipitation in the three smallest forest size classes, but not in the largest forests. In the grassland‐dominated area, the tree growth dependence on summer rainfall was highest. Missing ring frequency has strongly increased since the 1970s in small, but not in large forests. In the grassland‐dominated area, the increase was much greater than in the forest‐dominated landscape. Forest regeneration decreased with decreasing stand size and was scarce or absent in the smallest forests. Our results suggest that the larch trees in small and isolated forest patches are far more susceptible to climate warming than in large continuous forests pointing to a grim future for the forests in this strongly warming region of the boreal forest that is also under high land use pressure.     

Tree-ring growth of Gmelin larch under contrasting local conditions in the north of Central Siberia

While the forest-tundra zone in Siberia, Russia has been dendroclimatologically well-studied in recent decades, much less emphasis has been given to a wide belt of northern taiga larch forests located to the south. In this study, climate and local site conditions are explored to trace their influence on radial growth of Gmelin larch (Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Rupr.) trees developed on permafrost soils in the northern taiga. Three dendrochronological sites characterized by great differences in thermo-hydrological regime of soils were established along a short (ca. 100 m long) transect: on a river bank (RB), at riparian zone of a stream (RZ) and on a terrace (TER). Comparative analysis of the rate and year-to-year dynamics of tree radial growth among sites revealed considerable difference in both raw and standardized tree-ring width (TRW) chronologies obtained for the RZ site, characterized by shallow soil active layer depth and saturated soils. Results of dendroclimatic analysis indicated that tree-ring growth at all the sites is mostly defined by climatic conditions of a previous year and precipitation has stronger effect on TRW chronologies in comparison to the air temperatures. Remarkably, a great difference in the climatic response of TRW chronologies has been obtained for trees growing within a very short distance from each other. The positive relation of tree-ring growth with precipitation, and negative to temperature was observed in the dry site RB. In contrary, precipitation negatively and temperature positively influenced tree radial growth of larch at the water saturated RZ. Thus, a complicate response of northern Siberian larch forest productivity to the possible climate changes is expected due to great mosaic of site conditions and variability of environmental factors controlling tree-ring growth at different sites. Our study demonstrates the new possibilities for the future dendroclimatic research in the region, as various climatic parameters can be reconstructed from tree-ring chronologies obtained for different sites.     

Growth response of Abies georgei to climate increases with elevation in the central Hengduan Mountains,southwestern China

Climatic harshness is expected to increase at higher elevations; however, elevational trends of tree radial growth response of high-elevation forests to climate change need to be investigated at different locations because of existing local variability in site-specific climatic conditions. We developed tree-ring width chronologies of Yunnan fir (Abies georgei) along elevation gradients at two sites in the central Hengduan Mountains (HM). High-elevation forests of A. georgei showed growth synchronicity and common growth signals along elevation gradients, indicating a common climatic forcing, although tree radial growth rates decreased with increasing elevation. Radial growth of Yunnan fir showed positive correlations with summer temperatures and February precipitation and moisture availability, but were negatively correlated with spring temperatures. The strongest positive relationship indicated summer (July) mean and minimum temperatures are the most important growth determining climatic factors for tree radial growth in the cold environment of HM, and this relationship revealed a clear elevational trend with stronger correlations at higher altitudes. In contrast, tree radial growth was negatively correlated with June precipitation and moisture availability. The whole study period 1954–2015 was split in two sub-periods of equal length. Comparing the early sub-period (1954–1984) to the later sub-period (1985–2015), tree growth response to the summer temperatures strongly increased, while it became weaker to June precipitation and moisture availability. High-elevation Yunnan fir forests in the HM currently benefit from elevated growing season temperatures under humid summer conditions. However, increasing temperatures may induce drought stress on tree radial growth if the observed decreasing trend in humidity and precipitation continues.     

Species-specific growth-climate responses of Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii) and Mongolian pine (Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica) in the Greater Khingan Range,northeast China

Responses of tree growth to climate are usually spatially heterogeneous. Besides regionally varying external environments, species specificity is a crucial factor in determining said spatial heterogeneity. A better understanding of this species specificity would improve our estimations of the warming effects on forests. In this study, we selected two widely-distributed boreal conifers, Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii) and Mongolian pine (Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica), to compare their growth-climate responses, including long-term growth-climate correlations and short-term growth resilience to drought. We sampled 160 trees and 481 tree-ring cores from the two species in two pure and two mixed forests, located in the Greater Khingan Range, northeast China. We found that Dahurian larch was generally positively correlated with spring temperature and negatively correlated with summer temperature. In contrast, Mongolian pine was more sensitive to summer moisture. Our results suggest that the main climatic limitations were low spring temperatures for Dahurian larch and summer moisture deficits for Mongolian pine. Dahurian larch represented higher growth resistance to drought, while Mongolia pine represented higher recovery. Based on this, we inferred that Dahurian larch was more vulnerable to extreme droughts, while Mongolian pine was more vulnerable to frequent droughts. We also demonstrated the effects of forest type on growth-climate responses. The negative effects of summer temperatures on Mongolian pine seemed to be more significant in mixed forests. As warming continued, Mongolian pine in this area would suffer severer moisture deficits, especially when coexisting with Dahurian larch. Our results suggest that Dahurian larch gained an advantage in the competition with Mongolian pine during high moisture stress. Driven by the warming trends, the species specificity in growth response would ultimately promote the separation of the two species in distribution. This study will help improve our estimations of the warming effects on forests and develop more species-targeted forest management practices.     

Growth decline linked to warming-induced water limitation in hemi-boreal forests

Hemi-boreal forests, which make up the transition from temperate deciduous forests to boreal forests in southern Siberia, have experienced significant warming without any accompanying increase in precipitation during the last 80 years. This climatic change could have a profound impact on tree growth and on the stability of forest ecosystems in this region, but at present evidence for these impacts is lacking. In this study, we report a recent dramatic decline in the growth of hemi-boreal forests, based on ring width measurements from three dominant tree-species (Pinus sylvestris, Larix sibirica and Larix gmelinii), sampled from eight sites in the region. We found that regional tree growth has become increasingly limited by low soil water content in the pre- and early-growing season (from October of the previous year to July of the current year) over the past 80 years. A warming-induced reduction in soil water content has also increased the climate sensitivity of these three tree species. Beginning in the mid-1980s, a clear decline in growth is evident for both the pine forests and the larch forests, although there are increasing trends in the proxy of soil water use efficiencies. Our findings are consistent with those from other parts of the world and provide valuable insights into the regional carbon cycle and vegetation dynamics, and should be useful for devising adaptive forest management strategies.     

Recent climate hiatus revealed dual control by temperature and drought on the stem growth of Mediterranean Quercus ilex

A better understanding of stem growth phenology and its climate drivers would improve projections of the impact of climate change on forest productivity. Under a Mediterranean climate, tree growth is primarily limited by soil water availability during summer, but cold temperatures in winter also prevent tree growth in evergreen forests. In the widespread Mediterranean evergreen tree species Quercus ilex, the duration of stem growth has been shown to predict annual stem increment, and to be limited by winter temperatures on the one hand, and by the summer drought onset on the other hand. We tested how these climatic controls of Q. ilex growth varied with recent climate change by correlating a 40‐year tree ring record and a 30‐year annual diameter inventory against winter temperature, spring precipitation, and simulated growth duration. Our results showed that growth duration was the best predictor of annual tree growth. We predicted that recent climate changes have resulted in earlier growth onset (?10 days) due to winter warming and earlier growth cessation (?26 days) due to earlier drought onset. These climatic trends partly offset one another, as we observed no significant trend of change in tree growth between 1968 and 2008. A moving‐window correlation analysis revealed that in the past, Q. ilex growth was only correlated with water availability, but that since the 2000s, growth suddenly became correlated with winter temperature in addition to spring drought. This change in the climate–growth correlations matches the start of the recent atmospheric warming pause also known as the ‘climate hiatus’. The duration of growth of Q. ilex is thus shortened because winter warming has stopped compensating for increasing drought in the last decade. Decoupled trends in precipitation and temperature, a neglected aspect of climate change, might reduce forest productivity through phenological constraints and have more consequences than climate warming alone.     

Expanding forests and changing growth forms of Siberian larch at the Polar Urals treeline during the 20th century

The ongoing climatic changes potentially affect plant growth and the functioning of temperature‐limited high‐altitude and high‐latitude ecosystems; the rate and magnitude of these biotic changes are, however, uncertain. The aim of this study was to reconstruct stand structure and growth forms of Larix sibirica (Ledeb.) in undisturbed forest–tundra ecotones of the remote Polar Urals on a centennial time scale. Comparisons of the current ecotone with historic photographs from the 1960s clearly document that forests have significantly expanded since then. Similarly, the analysis of forest age structure based on more than 300 trees sampled along three altitudinal gradients reaching from forests in the valleys to the tundra indicate that more than 70% of the currently upright‐growing trees are <80 years old. Because thousands of more than 500‐year‐old subfossil trees occur in the same area but tree remnants of the 15–19th century are lacking almost entirely, we conclude that the forest has been expanding upwards into the formerly tree‐free tundra during the last century by about 20–60 m in altitude. This upward shift of forests was accompanied by significant changes in tree growth forms: while 36% of the few trees that are more than 100 years old were multi‐stem tree clusters, 90% of the trees emerging after 1950 were single‐stemmed. Tree‐ring analysis of horizontal and vertical stems of multi‐stemmed larch trees showed that these trees had been growing in a creeping form since the 15th century. In the early 20th century, they started to grow upright with 5–20 stems per tree individual. The incipient vertical growth led to an abrupt tripling in radial growth and thus, in biomass production. Based on above‐ and belowground biomass measurements of 33 trees that were dug out and the mapping of tree height and diameter, we estimated that forest expansion led to a biomass increase by 40–75 t ha^?1 and a carbon accumulation of approximately 20–40 g C m^?2 yr^?1 during the last century. The forest expansion and change in growth forms coincided with significant summer warming by 0.9 °C and a doubling of winter precipitation during the 20th century. In summary, our results indicate that the ongoing climatic changes are already leaving a fingerprint on the appearance, structure, and productivity of the treeline ecotone in the Polar Urals.     

Response of white birch (Betula platyphylla Sukaczev) to temperature and precipitation in the mountain forest steppe and taiga of northern Mongolia

The mountain forest steppe and taiga in northern Mongolia have experienced a forest decline in area and quality since the end of the last century. Changes in land use, climate, fire frequency and pest occurrence are considered to be the main drivers of this vegetation shift and desertification. Because this region is the source for major rivers, is home to a unique flora and fauna and represents an important source of timber for Mongolia, the ability of different tree species to respond to these changes and regenerate is of increasing interest. Our contribution focuses on the climate-growth relationship of old and young birch trees from two valleys in the Mongolian province of Selenge Aimag.The research site Bugant, located in the Western Khentey Mountains, was the most important logging centre in Mongolia during socialist times. Today, the vegetation is dominated by succession forests of light taiga. The research site Altansumber, on the border of the Sant and Khushat soum, is dominated by light taiga and mountain forest steppe. Traditional nomads who depend on these forests for different reasons inhabit this area.Wood cores were sampled and chronologies of young and old birch trees at Bugant and Altansumber were created. Climate data were obtained from the Eroo station, which is known in the region for its long and reliable climate record. We analysed the climate-growth relationships of the chronologies from 1962 to 2009. At both sites and in both age classes, correlations with temperature were predominantly negative, particularly in April (Bugant, south- and east-facing slopes) and May (Altansumber, north-facing slopes). Precipitation of the late summer of the previous year (August/September) positively correlated with the growth of birch at Altansumber. We assume that the significant negative correlation between winter precipitation (December/January) and the growth of old birches at both sites is due to positive effects of snow cover on the survival rate of herbivorous insect populations. Our results indicate that during the early vegetation period, younger birch trees are more dependent on water availability than older ones. Negative pointer years were characterized by below-average precipitation during the current summer period and above-average spring temperatures. For the old trees, positive pointer years were characterized by above-average summer precipitation. We conclude that water availability is the most crucial factor for the growth of white birch in northern Mongolia.     

The climatic drivers of primary Picea forest growth along the Carpathian arc are changing under rising temperatures

Climatic constraints on tree growth mediate an important link between terrestrial and atmospheric carbon pools. Tree rings provide valuable information on climate‐driven growth patterns, but existing data tend to be biased toward older trees on climatically extreme sites. Understanding climate change responses of biogeographic regions requires data that integrate spatial variability in growing conditions and forest structure. We analyzed both temporal (c. 1901–2010) and spatial variation in radial growth patterns in 9,876 trees from fragments of primary Picea abies forests spanning the latitudinal and altitudinal extent of the Carpathian arc. Growth was positively correlated with summer temperatures and spring moisture availability throughout the entire region. However, important seasonal variation in climate responses occurred along geospatial gradients. At northern sites, winter precipitation and October temperatures of the year preceding ring formation were positively correlated with ring width. In contrast, trees at the southern extent of the Carpathians responded negatively to warm and dry conditions in autumn of the year preceding ring formation. An assessment of regional synchronization in radial growth variability showed temporal fluctuations throughout the 20th century linked to the onset of moisture limitation in southern landscapes. Since the beginning of the study period, differences between high and low elevations in the temperature sensitivity of tree growth generally declined, while moisture sensitivity increased at lower elevations. Growth trend analyses demonstrated changes in absolute tree growth rates linked to climatic change, with basal area increments in northern landscapes and lower altitudes responding positively to recent warming. Tree growth has predominantly increased with rising temperatures in the Carpathians, accompanied by early indicators that portions of the mountain range are transitioning from temperature to moisture limitation. Continued warming will alleviate large‐scale temperature constraints on tree growth, giving increasing weight to local drivers that are more challenging to predict.     

Endurance of larch forest ecosystems in eastern Siberia under warming trends

The larch (Larix spp.) forest in eastern Siberia is the world's largest coniferous forest. Its persistence is considered to depend on near‐surface permafrost, and thus, forecast warming over the 21st century and consequent degradation of near‐surface permafrost is expected to affect the larch forest in Siberia. However, predictions of these effects vary greatly, and many uncertainties remain about land – atmosphere interactions within the ecosystem. We developed an integrated land surface model to analyze how the Siberian larch forest will react to current warming trends. This model analyzed interactions between vegetation dynamics and thermo‐hydrology, although it does not consider many processes those are considered to affect productivity response to a changing climate (e.g., nitrogen limitation, waterlogged soil, heat stress, and change in species composition). The model showed that, under climatic conditions predicted under gradual and rapid warming, the annual net primary production of larch increased about 2 and 3 times, respectively, by the end of the 21st century compared with that in the previous century. Soil water content during the larch‐growing season showed no obvious trend, even when surface permafrost was allowed to decay and result in subsurface runoff. A sensitivity test showed that the forecast temperature and precipitation trends extended larch leafing days and reduced water shortages during the growing season, thereby increasing productivity. The integrated model also satisfactorily reconstructed latitudinal gradients in permafrost presence, soil moisture, tree leaf area index, and biomass over the entire larch‐dominated area in eastern Siberia. Projected changes to ecosystem hydrology and larch productivity at this geographical scale were consistent with those from site‐level simulation. This study reduces the uncertainty surrounding the impact of current climate trends on this globally important carbon reservoir, and it demonstrates the need to consider complex ecological processes to make accurate predictions.     

Increased growth and reduced summer drought limitation at the southern limit of Fagus sylvatica L., despite regionally warmer and drier conditions

Tree populations at the equatorward edge of their distribution are predicted to respond to increased temperature and drought with declining performance. Empirical studies of Fagus sylvatica L., one of the most studied tree species in Europe, have broadly supported these predictions. Using a network of tree ring chronologies from northern Greece, we showed that growth in populations of this species at their southeast distribution limit was limited by summer temperature and precipitation, particularly at low elevations. Furthermore, decadal periods of lower precipitation and higher temperature in the twentieth century were associated with multi-year growth depressions. However, since 1990, growth trends were positive across the network, despite continued dry and hot summer conditions. Growth trends were not correlated with either elevation or tree age. Additionally, correlations between growth and temperature and precipitation were weaker in recent decades. These results are consistent with another recent report from the Balkan Peninsula, and indicate that forests in this region may be more resistant to regional climate change than previously considered.     

Wildfires affect tree growth and resilience in Northeastern China natural Dahurian larch forests: A dendrochronological perspective

Wildfires are natural and ubiquitous disturbances in boreal forests. Assessing their impacts on tree growth and resilience are particularly important to recognize the adaptation strategies of fire-tolerant species and forest succession in fire conditions. To date, the growth resilience of fire-tolerant species in boreal forests remains largely unquantified, and the drivers of resilience are poorly understood. Here, we measured the tree-ring widths of 99 fire-scarred trees from three sites in natural Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii) forests. Three moderate-severity fire events in years 1987, 1990, and 2000 occurring at three sites were detected from the records of local forestry bureau. Based on tree-ring width data, we calculated resilience components (i.e., resistance, recovery, resilience and relative resilience) to quantify the responses of growth resilience in the larch trees to fires and analyzed their drivers at three sites. Results indicated that fires significantly reduced the tree growth. With the increasing tree age, these reductions were more pronounced. As for resilience components, our study showed a limited resistance but high recovery of tree growth against fires, and resistance tended to increase northwards but recovery showed the opposite, suggesting a growth-survival tradeoff was exhibited in Dahurian larch trees. With an increasing tree age, regional resistance and resilience showed a decreasing trend, whereas recovery and relative resilience showed an increasing trend. Resilience components were mainly affected by the climatic factors in spring. An increase in moisture availability enhanced resistance, a reduction in diurnal temperature range enhanced recovery, and an increase in mean temperature enhanced resilience and relative resilience. This study reveals that Dahurian larch could be even less favorable when faced with moderate or severe fire events, but a high capacity of recovery enables this species to adapt to the fire-prone condition. Moreover, this work highlights that the resilience of tree growth should be considered to understand tree behaviors and survival strategies of boreal forests following fires across fire-prone regions under future climate warming.     

Sensitivity of Siberian larch forests to climate change

The Northern Hemisphere's boreal forests, particularly the Siberian boreal forest, may have a strong effect on Earth's climate through changes in dominant vegetation and associated regional surface albedo. We show that warmer climate will likely convert Siberia's deciduous larch (Larix spp.) to evergreen conifer forests, and thus decrease regional surface albedo. The dynamic vegetation model, FAREAST, simulates Russian boreal forest composition and was used to explore the feedback between climate change and forest composition at continental, regional, and local scales. FAREAST was used to simulate the impact of changes in temperature and precipitation on total and genus‐level biomass at sites across Siberia and the Russian Far East (RFE), and for six high‐ and low‐diversity regions. Model runs with and without European Larch (Larix decidua) included in the available species pool were compared to assess the potential for this species, which is adapted to warmer climate conditions, to mitigate the effects of climate change, especially the shift to evergreen dominance. At the continental scale, when temperature is increased, larch‐dominated sites become vulnerable to early replacement by evergreen conifers. At the regional and local scales, the diverse Amur region of the RFE does not show a strong response to climate change, but the low‐diversity regions in central and southern Siberia have an abrupt vegetation shift from larch‐dominated forest to evergreen‐conifer forest in response to increased temperatures. The introduction of L. decidua prevents the collapse of larch in these low‐diversity areas and thus mitigates the response to warming. Using contemporary MODIS albedo measurements, we determined that a conversion from larch to evergreen stands in low‐diversity regions of southern Siberia would generate a local positive radiative forcing of 5.1±2.6 W m^?2. This radiative heating would reinforce the warming projected to occur in the area under climate change.     

Evidence for declining forest resilience to wildfires under climate change

Forest resilience to climate change is a global concern given the potential effects of increased disturbance activity, warming temperatures and increased moisture stress on plants. We used a multi‐regional dataset of 1485 sites across 52 wildfires from the US Rocky Mountains to ask if and how changing climate over the last several decades impacted post‐fire tree regeneration, a key indicator of forest resilience. Results highlight significant decreases in tree regeneration in the 21st century. Annual moisture deficits were significantly greater from 2000 to 2015 as compared to 1985–1999, suggesting increasingly unfavourable post‐fire growing conditions, corresponding to significantly lower seedling densities and increased regeneration failure. Dry forests that already occur at the edge of their climatic tolerance are most prone to conversion to non‐forests after wildfires. Major climate‐induced reduction in forest density and extent has important consequences for a myriad of ecosystem services now and in the future.     

Structure and Composition of Natural Gmelin Larch (Larix gmelinii var. gmelinii) Forests in Response to Spatial Climatic Changes

Background

Many theoretical researches predicted that the larch species would decrease drastically in China under future climatic changes. However, responses of the structural and compositional changes of Gmelin larch (Larix gmelinii var. gmelinii) forests to climatic changes have rarely been reported.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Field survey was conducted to examine the structures and compositions of natural Gmelin larch forests along a climatic gradient. Stepwise linear regression analyses incorporating linear and quadratic components of climatic and non-climatic factors were performed on the structural and compositional attributes of those natural Gmelin larch forests. Isothermality, Max Temperature of Warmest Month (TempWarmestMonth), Precipitation of Wettest Month (PrecipWettestMonth), Precipitation Seasonality (PrecipSeasonality) and Precipitation of Driest Quarter (PrecipDriestQuarter) were observed to be effective climatic factors in controlling structure and composition of Gmelin larch forests. Isothermality significantly affected total basal area of larch, while TempWarmestMonth, PrecipWettestMonth and PrecipSeasonality significantly affected total basal area of Mongolian pine, and PrecipDriestQuarter significantly affected mean DBH of larch, stand density of larch and total basal area of spruce and fir.

Conclusions/Significance

The summer and winter temperatures and precipitations are all predicted to increase in future in Northeast China. Our results showed the increase of total basal area of spruce and fir, the suppression of regeneration and the decrease of stand density of larch under increased winter precipitation, and the decrease of total basal area of larch under increased summer temperature in the region of current Gmelin larch forest. Therefore, we suggest that larch would decrease and spruce and fir would increase in the region of future Gmelin larch forest.     

Forest Structure,Stand Composition,and Climate-Growth Response in Montane Forests of Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve,China

Montane forests of western China provide an opportunity to establish baseline studies for climate change. The region is being impacted by climate change, air pollution, and significant human impacts from tourism. We analyzed forest stand structure and climate-growth relationships from Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve in northwestern Sichuan province, along the eastern edge of the Tibetan plateau. We conducted a survey to characterize forest stand diversity and structure in plots occurring between 2050 and 3350 m in elevation. We also evaluated seedling and sapling recruitment and tree-ring data from four conifer species to assess: 1) whether the forest appears in transition toward increased hardwood composition; 2) if conifers appear stressed by recent climate change relative to hardwoods; and 3) how growth of four dominant species responds to recent climate. Our study is complicated by clear evidence of 20^th century timber extraction. Focusing on regions lacking evidence of logging, we found a diverse suite of conifers (Pinus, Abies, Juniperus, Picea, and Larix) strongly dominate the forest overstory. We found population size structures for most conifer tree species to be consistent with self-replacement and not providing evidence of shifting composition toward hardwoods. Climate-growth analyses indicate increased growth with cool temperatures in summer and fall. Warmer temperatures during the growing season could negatively impact conifer growth, indicating possible seasonal climate water deficit as a constraint on growth. In contrast, however, we found little relationship to seasonal precipitation. Projected warming does not yet have a discernible signal on trends in tree growth rates, but slower growth with warmer growing season climates suggests reduced potential future forest growth.     

Large old trees increase growth under shifting climatic constraints: Aligning tree longevity and individual growth dynamics in primary mountain spruce forests

In a world of accelerating changes in environmental conditions driving tree growth, tradeoffs between tree growth rate and longevity could curtail the abundance of large old trees (LOTs), with potentially dire consequences for biodiversity and carbon storage. However, the influence of tree-level tradeoffs on forest structure at landscape scales will also depend on disturbances, which shape tree size and age distribution, and on whether LOTs can benefit from improved growing conditions due to climate warming. We analyzed temporal and spatial variation in radial growth patterns from ~5000 Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] H. Karst) live and dead trees from the Western Carpathian primary spruce forest stands. We applied mixed-linear modeling to quantify the importance of LOT growth histories and stand dynamics (i.e., competition and disturbance factors) on lifespan. Finally, we assessed regional synchronization in radial growth variability over the 20th century, and modeled the effects of stand dynamics and climate on LOTs recent growth trends. Tree age varied considerably among forest stands, implying an important role of disturbance as an age constraint. Slow juvenile growth and longer period of suppressed growth prolonged tree lifespan, while increasing disturbance severity and shorter time since last disturbance decreased it. The highest age was not achieved only by trees with continuous slow growth, but those with slow juvenile growth followed by subsequent growth releases. Growth trend analysis demonstrated an increase in absolute growth rates in response to climate warming, with late summer temperatures driving the recent growth trend. Contrary to our expectation that LOTs would eventually exhibit declining growth rates, the oldest LOTs (>400 years) continuously increase growth throughout their lives, indicating a high phenotypic plasticity of LOTs for increasing biomass, and a strong carbon sink role of primary spruce forests under rising temperatures, intensifying droughts, and increasing bark beetle outbreaks.