Stability of genetic variance and covariance for reproductive characters in the face of climate change in a wild bird population

Global warming has had numerous effects on populations of animals and plants, with many species in temperate regions experiencing environmental change at unprecedented rates. Populations with low potential for adaptive evolutionary change and plasticity will have little chance of persistence in the face of environmental change. Assessment of the potential for adaptive evolution requires the estimation of quantitative genetic parameters, but it is as yet unclear what impact, if any, global warming will have on the expression of genetic variances and covariances. Here we assess the impact of a changing climate on the genetic architecture underlying three reproductive traits in a wild bird population. We use a large, long-term, data set collected on great tits (Parus major) in Wytham Woods, Oxford, and an 'animal model' approach to quantify the heritability of, and genetic correlations among, laying date, clutch size and egg mass during two periods with contrasting temperature conditions over a 40-year period (1965-1988 [cooler] vs. 1989-2004 [warmer]). We found significant additive genetic variance and heritability for all traits under both temperature regimes. We also found significant negative genetic covariances and correlations between clutch size and egg weight during both periods, and among laying date and clutch size in the colder years only. The overall G matrix comparison among periods, however, showed only a minor difference among periods, thus suggesting that genotype by environment interactions are negligible in this context. Our results therefore suggest that despite substantial changes in temperature and in mean laying date phenotype over the last decades, and despite the large sample sizes available, we are unable to detect any significant change in the genetic architecture of the reproductive traits studied.     

"Hidden" reproductive conflict between mates in a wild bird population

Environmental conditions experienced by a female prior to reproducing may be influenced by her mate. Part of such an indirect effect of a male on his partner's reproduction may be genetic (indirect genetic effect). However, a female's direct and a male's indirect genetic effects need not align. We analyzed 10,652 records of seasonal timing of laying, an important reproductive trait in many organisms, of 1864 male and 1916 female common gulls Larus canus collected during 37 years. We show that there is both a direct (female) and an indirect (male) genetic effect (explaining 14.5% and 4.8% of the REML estimated variance in laying date, respectively), but these are significantly negatively correlated (-0.53+/-0.22 SE), indicating that genes for early laying in females are associated with genes for a delaying male effect on his partner's laying date (and vice versa). There is strong selection for laying early in this population, and these sexually antagonistic genetic effects may contribute in maintaining the variation in laying date. Our findings provide an empirical demonstration of a hitherto largely unstudied level of conflict between mates, with important ramifications for our understanding of evolutionary dynamics and mate choice in nature.     

Multivariate selection and intersexual genetic constraints in a wild bird population

When selection differs between the sexes for traits that are genetically correlated between the sexes, there is potential for the effect of selection in one sex to be altered by indirect selection in the other sex, a situation commonly referred to as intralocus sexual conflict (ISC). While potentially common, ISC has rarely been studied in wild populations. Here, we studied ISC over a set of morphological traits (wing length, tarsus length, bill depth and bill length) in a wild population of great tits (Parus major) from Wytham Woods, UK. Specifically, we quantified the microevolutionary impacts of ISC by combining intra‐ and intersex additive genetic (co)variances and sex‐specific selection estimates in a multivariate framework. Large genetic correlations between homologous male and female traits combined with evidence for sex‐specific multivariate survival selection suggested that ISC could play an appreciable role in the evolution of this population. Together, multivariate sex‐specific selection and additive genetic (co)variance for the traits considered accounted for additive genetic variance in fitness that was uncorrelated between the sexes (cross‐sex genetic correlation = ?0.003, 95% CI = ?0.83, 0.83). Gender load, defined as the reduction in a population's rate of adaptation due to sex‐specific effects, was estimated at 50% (95% CI = 13%, 86%). This study provides novel insights into the evolution of sexual dimorphism in wild populations and illustrates how quantitative genetics and selection analyses can be combined in a multivariate framework to quantify the microevolutionary impacts of ISC.     

Natural selection on the genetical component of variance in body condition in a wild bird population

Although there is substantial evidence that skeletal measures of body size are heritable in wild animal populations, it is frequently assumed that the nonskeletal component of body weight (or ‘condition’) is determined primarily by environmental factors, in particular nutritional state. We tested this assumption by quantifying the genetic and environmental components of variance in fledgling body condition index (=relative body weight) in a natural population of collared flycatchers (Ficedula albicollis), and compared the strength of natural selection on individual breeding values with that on phenotypic values. A mixed model analysis of the components of variance, based on an ‘animal model’ and using 18 years of data on 17 717 nestlings, revealed a significant additive genetic component of variance in body condition, which corresponded to a narrow sense heritability (h²) of 0.30 (SE=0.03). Nongenetic contributions to variation in body condition were large, but there was no evidence of dominance variance nor of contributions from early maternal or common environment effects (pre‐manipulation environment) in condition at fledging. Comparison of pre‐ and post‐selection samples revealed virtually identical h² of body condition index, despite the fact that there was a significant decrease (35%) in the levels of additive genetic variance from fledging to breeding. The similar h² in the two samples occurred because the environmental component of variance was also reduced by selection, suggesting that natural selection was acting on both genotypic and environmental variation. The effects of selection on genetic variance were confirmed by calculation of the selection differentials for both phenotypic values and best linear unbiased predictor (BLUP) estimates of breeding values: there was positive directional selection on condition index both at the phenotypic and the genotypic level. The significant h² of body condition index is consistent with data from human and rodent populations showing significant additive genetic variance in relative body mass and adiposity, but contrasts with the common assumption in ecology that body condition reflects an individual’s nongenetic nutritional state. Furthermore, the substantial reduction in the additive genetic component of variance in body condition index suggests that selection on environmental deviations cannot alone explain the maintenance of additive genetic variation in heritable traits, but that other mechanisms are needed to explain the moderate to high heritabilities of traits under consistent and strong directional selection.     

It takes two: Heritable male effects on reproductive timing but not clutch size in a wild bird population*

Within-population variation in the traits underpinning reproductive output has long been of central interest to biologists. Since they are strongly linked to lifetime reproductive success, these traits are expected to be subject to strong selection and, if heritable, to evolve. Despite the formation of durable pair bonds in many animal taxa, reproductive traits are often regarded as female-specific, and estimates of quantitative genetic variation seldom consider a potential role for heritable male effects. Yet reliable estimates of such social genetic effects are important since they influence the amount of heritable variation available to selection. Based on a 52-year study of a nestbox-breeding great tit (Parus major) population, we apply “extended” bivariate animal models in which the heritable effects of both sexes are modeled to assess the extent to which males contribute to heritable variation in seasonal reproductive timing (egg laying date) and clutch size, while accommodating the covariance between the two traits. Our analyses show that reproductive timing is a jointly expressed trait in this species, with (positively covarying) heritable variation for laydate being expressed in both members of a breeding pair, such that the total heritable variance is 50% larger than estimated by traditional models. This result was robust to explicit consideration of a potential male-biased environmental confound arising through sexually dimorphic dispersal. In contrast to laydate, males’ contribution to heritable variation in clutch size was limited. Our study thus highlights the contrasting extent of social determination for two major components of annual reproductive success, and emphasizes the need to consider the social context of what are often considered individual-level traits.     

Exploring patterns of variation in clutch size–density reaction norms in a wild passerine bird

Negative density dependence of clutch size is a ubiquitous characteristic of avian populations and is partly due to within‐individual phenotypic plasticity. Yet, very little is known about the extent to which individuals differ in their degree of phenotypic plasticity, whether such variation has a genetic basis and whether level of plasticity can thus evolve in response to selection. Using 18 years of data of a Dutch great tit population (Parus major), we show that females reduced clutch size with increasing population density (slopes of the reaction norms), differed strongly in their average clutch size (elevations of the reaction norms) at the population‐mean density and that the latter variation was partly heritable. In contrast, we could not detect individual variation in phenotypic plasticity (‘I × E’). Level of plasticity is thus not likely to evolve in response to selection in this population. Observed clutch sizes deviated more from the estimated individual reaction norms in certain years and densities, implying that the within‐individual between‐year variance (so‐called residual variance) of clutch size was heterogeneous with respect to these factors. Given the observational nature of this study, experimental manipulation of density is now warranted to confirm the causality of the observed density effects. Our analyses demonstrate that failure to acknowledge this heterogeneity would have inflated the estimate of ‘I × E’ and led to misinterpretation of the data. This paper thereby emphasizes the fact that heterogeneity in residuals can provide biologically insightful information about the ecological processes underlying the data.     

Subtle but ubiquitous selection on body size in a natural population of collared flycatchers over 33 years

Understanding the magnitude and long‐term patterns of selection in natural populations is of importance, for example, when analysing the evolutionary impact of climate change. We estimated univariate and multivariate directional, quadratic and correlational selection on four morphological traits (adult wing, tarsus and tail length, body mass) over a time period of 33 years (≈ 19 000 observations) in a nest‐box breeding population of collared flycatchers (Ficedula albicollis). In general, selection was weak in both males and females over the years regardless of fitness measure (fledged young, recruits and survival) with only few cases with statistically significant selection. When data were analysed in a multivariate context and as time series, a number of patterns emerged; there was a consistent, but weak, selection for longer wings in both sexes, selection was stronger on females when the number of fledged young was used as a fitness measure, there were no indications of sexually antagonistic selection, and we found a negative correlation between selection on tarsus and wing length in both sexes but using different fitness measures. Uni‐ and multivariate selection gradients were correlated only for wing length and mass. Multivariate selection gradient vectors were longer than corresponding vector of univariate gradients and had more constrained direction. Correlational selection had little importance. Overall, the fitness surface was more or less flat with few cases of significant curvature, indicating that the adaptive peak with regard to body size in this species is broader than the phenotypic distribution, which has resulted in weak estimates of selection.     

Partitioning of genetic variation across the genome using multimarker methods in a wild bird population

The underlying basis of genetic variation in quantitative traits, in terms of the number of causal variants and the size of their effects, is largely unknown in natural populations. The expectation is that complex quantitative trait variation is attributable to many, possibly interacting, causal variants, whose effects may depend upon the sex, age and the environment in which they are expressed. A recently developed methodology in animal breeding derives a value of relatedness among individuals from high‐density genomic marker data, to estimate additive genetic variance within livestock populations. Here, we adapt and test the effectiveness of these methods to partition genetic variation for complex traits across genomic regions within ecological study populations where individuals have varying degrees of relatedness. We then apply this approach for the first time to a natural population and demonstrate that genetic variation in wing length in the great tit (Parus major) reflects contributions from multiple genomic regions. We show that a polygenic additive mode of gene action best describes the patterns observed, and we find no evidence of dosage compensation for the sex chromosome. Our results suggest that most of the genomic regions that influence wing length have the same effects in both sexes. We found a limited amount of genetic variance in males that is attributed to regions that have no effects in females, which could facilitate the sexual dimorphism observed for this trait. Although this exploratory work focuses on one complex trait, the methodology is generally applicable to any trait for any laboratory or wild population, paving the way for investigating sex‐, age‐ and environment‐specific genetic effects and thus the underlying genetic architecture of phenotype in biological study systems.     

Heritable circadian period length in a wild bird population

Timing is essential, but circadian clocks, which play a crucial role in timekeeping, are almost unaddressed in evolutionary ecology. A key property of circadian clocks is their free-running period length (τ), i.e. the time taken for a full cycle under constant conditions. Under laboratory conditions, concordance of τ with the ambient light–dark cycle confers major fitness benefits, but little is known about period length and its implications in natural populations. We therefore studied natural variation of circadian traits in a songbird, the great tit (Parus major), by recording locomotor activity of 98 hand-raised, wild-derived individuals. We found, unexpectedly, that the free-running period of this diurnal species was significantly shorter than 24 h in constant dim light. We furthermore demonstrate, to our knowledge for the first time in a wild vertebrate, ample genetic variation and high heritability (h² = 0.86 ± 0.24), implying that period length is potentially malleable by micro-evolutionary change. The observed, short period length may be a consequence of sexual selection, as offspring from extra-pair matings had significantly shorter free-running periods than their half-siblings from within-pair matings. These findings position circadian clocks in the ‘real world’ and underscore the value of using chronobiological approaches in evolutionary ecology. Evolutionary ecologists study variation and its fitness consequences, but often have difficulties relating behavioural variation to physiological mechanisms. The findings presented here open the possibility that properties of internal, circadian clocks affect performance in traits that are relevant to fitness and sexual selection.     

Small‐scale spatial variation in evolvability for life‐history traits in the storm petrel

The evolutionary potential in the timing of recruitment and reproduction may be crucial for the ability of populations to buffer against environmental changes, allowing them to avoid unfavourable breeding conditions. The evolution of a trait in a local population is determined by its heritability and selection. In the present study, we performed pedigree‐based quantitative genetic analyses for two life‐history traits (recruiting age and laying date) using population data of the storm petrel over an 18‐year period in two adjacent breeding colonies (only 150 m apart) that share the same environmental conditions. In both traits, natal colony effect was the main source of the phenotypic variation among individuals, and cohort variance for recruitment age and additive genetic variance for laying date were natal colony‐specific. We found significant heritability only in laying date and, more specifically, only in birds born in one of the colonies. The difference in genetic variance between the colonies was statistically significant. Interestingly, selection on earlier breeding birds was detected only in the colony in which heritable variation in laying date was found. Therefore, local evolvability for a life‐history trait may vary within a unexpectedly small spatial scale, through the diversifying natural selection and insulating gene flow. © 2012 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2012, 106 , 439–446.     

Unpredictable selection in a structured population leads to local genetic differentiation in evolved reaction norms

Unpredictability during development of the optimum phenotype under future selection leads to a compromise reaction norm with a slope that is shallower than the slope of the optimum reaction norm. Unpredictability of selection can lead to an evolved curved reaction norm when genetic variation for curvature is available even if the optimum reaction norm is linear. This requires asymmetry in the frequency distribution of the habitats of selection; at small population size, stochasticity in the number of individuals per selection habitat is sufficient to generate such asymmetry. Unpredictability of selection in structured populations leads to local genetic differentiation of reaction norms. The mean habitat of a subpopulation is defined as the subpopulation's focal habitat. The evolved mean reaction norm of each subpopulation is anchored at the optimum genotypic value in its focal habitat. Linear reaction norms are parallel if the conditional distribution of adults around the focal habitats is the same for each subpopulation. Adult migration and absence of zygote dispersal represents the ultimate structured population, each habitat playing the role of focal habitat. Absence of zygote dispersal requires that the flow of individuals through the habitats is used instead of the habitats’ frequencies in the prediction of the evolved reaction norm. Adult migration in absence of zygote dispersal leads to an evolved pattern of locally differentiated reaction norms with optimum genotypic value anchored in the focal habitat and, for linear reaction norms, parallel slopes.     

Impacts of environmental heterogeneity on natural selection in a wild bird population*

Natural selection has been studied for several decades, resulting in the computation of thousands of selection estimates. Although the importance of environmental conditions on selection has often been suggested, published estimates rarely take into account the effects of environmental heterogeneity on selection patterns. Here, we estimated linear and nonlinear viability selection gradients on morphological traits of 12-day old nestlings in a wild population of tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) across a large-scale heterogeneous study system in southern Québec, Canada. We assessed the environmental drivers of nestling survival and evaluated their effects on strength and direction of selection gradients. Separate analyses of environmental variables showed that high temperatures and heavy rainfall caused stronger positive linear selection on morphological traits. Weaker linear selection was also measured in more extensively cultivated areas. Both strength and shape of nonlinear quadratic and correlational components of selection were modified by environmental variables. Considering all environmental variables revealed that precipitation since hatching affected patterns of linear selection on traits, while temperatures since hatching shaped nonlinear selection patterns. Our study underlines the importance of quantifying linear and nonlinear natural selection under various environmental conditions and how the evolutionary response of traits may be affected by ongoing human-induced environmental changes.     

Strong habitat and weak genetic effects shape the lifetime reproductive success in a wild clownfish population

The relative contributions of environmental, maternal and additive genetic factors to the Lifetime reproductive success (LRS) determine whether species can adapt to rapid environmental change. Yet to date, studies quantifying LRS across multiple generations in marine species in the wild are non‐existent. Here we used 10‐year pedigrees resolved for a wild orange clownfish population from Kimbe Island (PNG) and a quantitative genetic linear mixed model approach to quantify the additive genetic, maternal and environmental contributions to variation in LRS for the self‐recruiting portion of the population. We found that the habitat of the breeder, including the anemone species and geographic location, made the greatest contribution to LRS. There were low to negligible contributions of genetic and maternal factors equating with low heritability and evolvability. Our findings imply that our population will be susceptible to short‐term, small‐scale changes in habitat structure and may have limited capacity to adapt to these changes.     

Indirect genetic effects in a sex‐limited trait: the case of breeding time in red‐billed gulls

Female reproductive performance can be strongly affected by male care, so that breeding time, a trait expressed only by females, can be seen as one trait determined by both male and female genotypes. Animal model analyses of a 46‐year study of red‐billed gulls (Larus novaehollandiae scopulinus) revealed that laying date was not heritable in females (h² = 0.001 ± 0.030), but significantly so in males (h² = 0.134 ± 0.029). Heritability of breeding time in males probably reflects genetic variability in some other trait such as courtship feeding ability. In line with predictions of evolutionary models incorporating indirect genetic effects, the strong and consistent directional selection for advanced breeding time has not resulted in detectable selection response in males. Our results demonstrate that a female trait is largely determined by genetic characteristics of its mate, and hence, any evolutionary change in red‐billed gull breeding time depends critically on genetic variation in males.     

Why breeding time has not responded to selection for earlier breeding in a songbird population

A crucial assumption underlying the breeders' equation is that selection acts directly on the trait of interest, and not on an unmeasured environmental factor which affects both fitness and the trait. Such an environmentally induced covariance between a trait and fitness has been repeatedly proposed as an explanation for the lack of response to selection on avian breeding time. We tested this hypothesis using a long-term dataset from a Dutch great tit (Parus major) population. Although there was strong selection for earlier breeding in this population, egg-laying dates have changed only marginally over the last decades. Using a so-called animal model, we quantified the additive genetic variance in breeding time and predicted breeding values for females. Subsequently, we compared selection at the phenotypic and genetic levels for two fitness components, fecundity and adult survival. We found no evidence for an environmentally caused covariance between breeding time and fitness or counteracting selection on the different fitness components. Consequently, breeding time should respond to selection but the expected response to selection was too small to be detected.     

Quantitative genetics of bioenergetics and growth-related traits in the wild mammal, Phyllotis darwini

We studied the potential for response to selection in typical physiological-thermoregulatory traits of mammals such as maximum metabolic rate (MMR), nonshivering thermogenesis (NST) and basal metabolic rate (BMR) on cold-acclimated animals. We used an animal model approach to estimate both narrow-sense heritabilities (h2) and genetic correlations between physiological and growth-related traits. Univariate analyses showed that MMR presented high, significant heritability (h2 = 0.69 +/- 0.35, asymptotic standard error), suggesting the potential for microevolution in this variable. However, NST and BMR presented low, nonsignificant h2, and NST showed large maternal/common environmental/nonadditive effects (c2 = 0.34 +/- 0.17). Heritabilities were large and significant (h2 > 0.5) for all growth-related traits (birth mass, growth rate, weaning mass). The only significant genetic correlations we found between a physiological trait and a growth-related trait was between NST and birth mass (r = -0.74; P < 0.05). Overall, these results suggest that additive genetic variance is present in several bioenergetic traits, and that genetic correlations could be present between those different kinds of traits.     

Climate change and the risks associated with delayed breeding in a tropical wild bird population

There is growing evidence of changes in the timing of important ecological events, such as flowering in plants and reproduction in animals, in response to climate change, with implications for population decline and biodiversity loss. Recent work has shown that the timing of breeding in wild birds is changing in response to climate change partly because individuals are remarkably flexible in their timing of breeding. Despite this work, our understanding of these processes in wild populations remains very limited and biased towards species from temperate regions. Here, we report the response to changing climate in a tropical wild bird population using a long-term dataset on a formerly critically endangered island endemic, the Mauritius kestrel. We show that the frequency of spring rainfall affects the timing of breeding, with birds breeding later in wetter springs. Delays in breeding have consequences in terms of reduced reproductive success as birds get exposed to risks associated with adverse climatic conditions later on in the breeding season, which reduce nesting success. These results, combined with the fact that frequency of spring rainfall has increased by about 60 per cent in our study area since 1962, imply that climate change is exposing birds to the stochastic risks of late reproduction by causing them to start breeding relatively late in the season.