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1.
The aim of this study was to extend 40 yr of prior demographic work on northern elephant seals (Mirounga angustirostris) at Año Nuevo, California, by including the oldest animals. We used a Bayesian mark‐recapture analysis to estimate lifelong survival and lifespan of a cohort of 372 weaned pups branded in 1985–1987 and resighted until 2008. Annual survival probability of females averaged 86.3%/yr at ages 5–16, then declined until age 21, the age of the oldest female. Male survival was lower, averaging 67.7%/yr from age 1 to age 15, the age of the oldest male. Northern elephant seal females in the expanding population at Año Nuevo live longer than southern elephant seal females (M. leonina) at colonies whose populations are declining. This comparison suggests that high survival of females is a key factor in population growth.  相似文献   

2.
Ornaments displayed by females have often been denied evolutionary interest due to their frequently reduced expression relative to males, habitually attributed to a genetic correlation between the sexes. We estimated annual and lifetime reproductive success of female pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) and applied capture–mark–recapture models to analyse annual survival rates in relation to the patterns of expression (absence/presence) of an ornament displayed by all males and a fraction of females. Overall, the likelihood of expressing the ornament increased nonlinearly with female age and was due to within‐individual variation, not to the selective appearance or disappearance of ornament‐related expression of phenotypes in the population. Accordingly, expressing the forehead patch in a given year did not influence survival probability. However, those females expressing the ornament at early ages (1–2 years old) enjoyed survival advantages throughout lifetime. Although ornamented females had higher lifetime fecundity and fledging success, their yearly reproductive performance, in terms of fledging productivity, decreased as they aged so that, late in life, ornamented females reared fewer offspring than nonexpressing females of the same age. In addition, both strategies (expressing vs. not expressing the trait) returned similar fitness payoffs in terms of recruited offspring. Our results support the hypothesis that fecundity and survival selection are involved in the displaying of this ‘male’ ornament by females.  相似文献   

3.
We conducted a 15 yr mark‐resight study of branded California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) at San Miguel Island, California, to estimate age‐specific recruitment and natality of the population. We used the Schwarz and Stobo model to estimate sighting, survival, recruitment, timing of births, abundance, and age‐specific natality from sighting histories of 1,276 parous females. The advantage of this approach was that the reproductive status of females did not have to be known for all females of reproductive age. Probability of recruitment into the reproductive population began at age 3 or 4, peaked between ages 5 and 7, and slowly declined. Age‐specific natality was similar for ages 4–16 but declined after age 17, suggesting that reproductive senescence occurs in older females. The average annual natality for parous females 4–16 yr of age was 0.77 (SE = 0.03); natality declined to 0.56 (SE = 0.10) for parous females 17–21 yr of age. Natality for both age classes was reduced during El Niño conditions by 24% and 34%, respectively. In addition to reducing natality, El Niño events may result in a delay of recruitment if females experience El Niño conditions before they turn 4 yr of age.  相似文献   

4.
We observed 40 California sea otters, Enhydra lutris , that were instrumented with implanted radio transmitters and flipper-tagged, and obtained additional data on the reproduction of tagged female otters from the California Department of Fish and Game.
The proportion of instrumented females accompanied by a pup peaked in the spring, with a secondary peak in the fall. Two methods of estimating the annual reproductive rate gave comparable values of 0.90 and 0.94. The average inter-birth interval was 389 d. Two methods of estimating pup survival to weaning gave values of 0.46 and 0.58. Pups either remained with a female less than 80 or more than 120 d. Early mortality of dependent pups appears to be more frequent in California than in Prince William Sound, Alaska.
Two methods of estimation indicated that adult females had the highest survival rates and adult males the lowest. Juvenile females had lower survival rates than adult females but juvenile males had higher survival rates than adult males. The survival rate of juvenile females was lower than that of juvenile males.
The estimated annual loss rate for flipper-tags, based on the instrumented individuals, was 0.26. More individuals lost two tags than would be expected by chance. It is unlikely that accurate estimates of sea otter survival rates can be derived from observations of tagged individuals.  相似文献   

5.
Populations of migratory songbirds in western Europe show considerable variation in population trends between species and regions. The demographic and environmental causes of these large‐scale patterns are poorly understood. Using data from Constant Effort mist‐netting studies, we investigated relationships between changes in abundance, adult survival and seasonal weather conditions among 35 western European populations of eight species of migratory warblers (Sylviidae). We used cross‐species and within‐species comparisons to assess whether annual variation in survival was correlated with weather conditions during passage or winter. We estimated survival using CJS mark‐recapture models accounting for variation in the proportion of transient individuals and recapture rates. Species wintering in the humid bioclimatic zone of western Africa had significantly higher annual survival probabilities than species wintering in the arid bioclimatic zone of Africa (the Sahel). Rainfall in the Sahel was positively correlated with survival in at least some populations of five species. We found substantially fewer significant relationships with indices of weather during the autumn and spring passage periods, which may be due to the use of broad‐scale indices. Annual population changes were correlated with adult survival in all of our study species, although species undergoing widespread declines showed the weakest relationships.  相似文献   

6.
As pallid sturgeon, Scaphirhynchus albus (Forbes & Richardson, 1905), natural reproduction and recruitment remains very minimal in the lower Missouri River from Gavins Point Dam (river kilometer [rkm] 1305.2) to the confluence with the Mississippi River (rkm 0.0), hatchery supplementation and river‐wide monitoring efforts have continued. Annual survival estimates of hatchery‐reared pallid sturgeon stocked in the lower Missouri River were previously estimated during 1994–2008. Low recapture rates prior to 2006 limited the data available to estimate survival, which resulted in considerable uncertainty for the estimate of annual survival of age‐1 fish. Therefore, the objective was to provide more precise estimates of annual survival of pallid sturgeon using five additional years of stocking and sampling. The Cormack‐Jolly‐Seber model structure provided in program MARK was used to estimate the age‐specific survival estimates. Over 135 000 hatchery‐reared pallid sturgeon were released during 1994–2011 and recaptured at a rate of 1.9%, whereby estimates for the annual survival of age‐0 (Ø = 0.048) and >age‐1 (Ø = 0.931) were similar to those previously reported, but the age‐1 (Ø = 0.403) survival estimate was 52% lower. Post hoc analysis using time‐specific survival estimates indicated lower survival for age‐1 fish post‐2003 year classes, relative to the pre‐2002 year classes. An analysis confirms that hatchery‐reared pallid sturgeon continue to survive in the wild. However, low survival during the first 2 years of life is a management concern as efforts are aimed at maximizing genetic diversity and population growth. A follow‐up analysis also demonstrated the variability of capture rates and survival over time, which reinforces the need to continue to monitor and evaluate mark‐recapture data. The mark‐recapture efforts have provided demographic parameter estimates that remain a critical component for species recovery as these data are incorporated into population models.  相似文献   

7.
Harbor seal numbers and population trajectories differ by location in central California. Within San Francisco Bay (SFB) counts have been relatively stable since the 1972 Marine Mammal Protection Act, but in coastal areas like Tomales Bay (TB), counts increased before stabilizing in the 1990s. Emigration, poor survival, and environmental effects have been hypothesized as contributors to differences between trajectories; however, basic demographic data were not available to evaluate these hypotheses. We monitored 32 radio‐tagged adult females (SFB n = 17, TB n = 15) for 20 mo (2011–2013), and estimated survival, resight, and movement probabilities using mark‐resight analyses and multistate mark‐resight models. Annual survival probability for both sites was 0.90 (95% CI = 0.18–0.99). Six seals were observed moving between locations resulting in an estimated probability of 0.042 (95% CI = 0.023–0.076) per month equal movement between sites. Resight probability was less in SFB relative to TB, likely due to differential haul‐out access, area surveyed, visibility, and resight effort. Because of wide confidence intervals and low precision of these first estimates of adult female harbor seal survival in California, this demographic must be further examined to dismiss its contribution to differing population trajectories. Using aerial survey data, we estimated 950 harbor seals in SFB (95% CI = 715–1,184) confirming numbers are still stable.  相似文献   

8.
Somatic growth rate data for wild sea turtles can provide insight into life‐stage durations, time to maturation, and total lifespan. When appropriately validated, the technique of skeletochronology allows prior growth rates of sea turtles to be calculated with considerably less time and labor than required by mark‐–recapture studies. We applied skeletochronology to 10 dead, stranded green turtles Chelonia mydas that had previously been measured, tagged, and injected with OTC (oxytetracycline) during mark–recapture studies in Hawaii for validating skeletochronological analysis. We tested the validity of back‐calculating carapace lengths (CLs) from diameters of LAGs (lines of arrested growth), which mark the outer boundaries of individual skeletal growth increments. This validation was achieved by comparing CLs estimated from measurements of the LAG proposed to have been deposited closest to the time of tagging to actual CLs measured at the time of tagging. Measureable OTC‐mark diameters in five turtles also allowed us to investigate the time of year when LAGs are deposited. We found no significant difference between CLs measured at tagging and those estimated through skeletochronology, which supports calculation of somatic growth rates by taking the difference between CLs estimated from successive LAG diameters in humerus bones for this species. Back‐calculated CLs associated with the OTC mark and growth mark deposited closest to tagging indicated that annual LAGs are deposited in the spring. The results of this validation study increase confidence in utilization of skeletochronology to rapidly obtain accurate age and growth data for green turtles.  相似文献   

9.
Most wood‐warblers (Parulidae) are non‐migratory residents of the Neotropics and subtropics, and the demographic characteristics of these species are poorly known. I examined the annual survival, reproductive output, dispersal, age of first breeding, and other demographic characteristics of a permanently territorial non‐migratory tropical warbler, the Slate‐throated Redstart (Myioborus miniatus), based on a 5‐yr study of a color‐banded population in Monteverde, Costa Rica. Territorial males showed strong site fidelity, but 26% of females engaged in short‐distance between‐year breeding dispersal. Estimated annual survival of territory holders, corrected for undetected female breeding dispersal, was 0.56 for males and 0.43 for females, values lower than expected and comparable to survival estimates for North American migrant warblers. The lower annual survival of females had two demographic consequences; unpaired territorial males were present in 3 of 5 yr, and some 1‐yr‐old males appeared to be floaters. Unpaired females or female floaters, however, were not observed. Mean natal dispersal distance was significantly greater for females (935 m) than males (485 m). Estimated first‐year survival was 0.29, but this is almost certainly an underestimate because of undetected long‐distance, female‐biased natal dispersal. Annual fecundity (fledglings per female) was 1.8, less than that of temperate warblers and attributable to small mean clutch sizes and a low incidence of double brooding. Estimated population growth rate (λ) was <1 for both males and females, suggesting that the study population was a demographic sink, most likely due to lower‐than‐expected adult survival.  相似文献   

10.
Since European settlement in Australia, the geographical range of ghost bats (Macroderma gigas) has contracted northwards. Ghost bats are thought to occur in disjunct populations with little interpopulation migration, raising concerns over the current status and future viability of the southernmost colony, which has also been threatened by mining activity. To address these concerns, demographic parameters of the southernmost colony were estimated from a mark–recapture study conducted during 1975–1981. Female bats gave birth to a single young in late spring, but only 40% (22–70%, 95% CI) of females bred in their second year, increasing to 93% (87–97%, 95% CI) for females ≥ 2 years old. Sixty‐five percent of juveniles caught were female. Annual adult survival ranged between 0.57–0.77 for females and 0.43–0.66 for males, and was lowest over winter–spring and greatest in autumn–winter. Juvenile survival for the first year ranged between 0.35–0.46 for females and 0.29–0.42 for males. Adult survival varied among seasons, was negatively associated with rainfall, but was not associated with temperature beyond being lower in late winter. Poor survival may result from the inferior daytime roosts that bats must use if water seepage forces them to leave their normal roosts. Although these age‐specific rates of fecundity and survival suggested a declining population, mark–recapture estimates of the population trend indicated stability over the study period. Counts at daytime roosts also suggested a population decline, but were considered unreliable because of an increasing tendency of bats to avoid detection. It is therefore likely that some assumptions in estimating survival were violated. These results provide a caution against the uncritical use of population projections derived from mark–recapture estimates of demographic parameters, and the use of untested indices as the basis for conservation decisions.  相似文献   

11.
Haldane's rule predicts that particularly high fitness reduction should affect the heterogametic sex of interspecific hybrids. Despite the fact that hybridization is widespread in birds, survival of hybrid individuals is rarely addressed in studies of avian hybrid zones, possibly because of methodological constraints. Here, having applied capture–mark–recapture models to an extensive, 19‐year‐long data set on individually marked birds, we estimate annual survival rates of hybrid individuals in the hybrid zone between herring (Larus argentatus) and Caspian (Larus cachinnans) gulls. In both parental species, males have a slightly higher survival rate than females (model‐weighted mean ± SE: herring gull males 0.88 ± 0.01, females 0.87 ± 0.01, Caspian gull males 0.88 ± 0.01, females 0.87 ± 0.01). Hybrid males do not survive for a shorter time than nonhybrid ones (0.88 ± 0.01), whereas hybrid females have the lowest survival rate among all groups of individuals (0.83 ± 0.03). This translates to a shorter adult (reproductive) lifespan (on average by 1.7–1.8 years, i.e. ca 25%) compared with nonhybrid females. We conclude that, in line with Haldane's rule, the lower survival rate of female hybrids may contribute to selection against hybrids in this hybrid zone.  相似文献   

12.
We explore the effects of biotic and abiotic factors on the population demography of frillneck lizards (Chlamydosaurus kingii) in the Australian wet‐dry tropics. Annual growth rates of males were significantly higher across all body sizes compared to females, resulting in a significant larger maximum body size in males. Both male and female lizards were highly philopatric and 81% of the among‐year recapture distances were less than 200 m. Juvenile and adult frillnecks were subjected to low but highly variable annual survival rates. Both proportion of juveniles and relative proportion of reproductive females showed extensive among‐year variations. No relationship was, however, observed between proportion of gravid females and that of juveniles captured during the subsequent year. High rainfall in January was negatively correlated with recruitment most likely caused by increased egg/embryo mortality due to flooding of nest sites. We therefore suggest that the lack of association between female reproduction and juvenile recruitment was due to the effects of stochastic variation in January rainfall. Lizard numbers increased during the first five years of the study followed by a decline during the subsequent four years. Our analyses show that annual variation in survival constituted the main determinant in driving the annual change in frillneck numbers. Surprisingly, no relationship was observed between fillneck population dynamics and annual variation in juvenile recruitment. We suggest that the 7‐years over which these analyses were conducted were insufficient to detect any significant effects of recruitment on lizard numbers, demonstrating the need for long‐term studies to accurately document vertebrate population demographic processes in areas experiencing stochastic variations rainfall such as the Australian wet‐dry tropics.  相似文献   

13.
Assessing the drivers of survival across the annual cycle is important for understanding when and how population limitation occurs in migratory animals. Density‐dependent population regulation can occur during breeding and nonbreeding periods, and large‐scale climate cycles can also affect survival throughout the annual cycle via their effects on local weather and vegetation productivity. Most studies of survival use mark–recapture techniques to estimate apparent survival, but true survival rates remain obscured due to unknown rates of permanent emigration. This is especially problematic when assessing annual survival of migratory birds, whose movement between breeding attempts, or breeding dispersal, can be substantial. We used a multistate approach to examine drivers of annual survival and one component of breeding dispersal (habitat‐specific movements) in a population of American redstarts (Setophaga ruticilla) over 11 years in two adjacent habitat types. Annual survival displayed a curvilinear relation to the Southern Oscillation Index, with lower survival during La Niña and El Niño conditions. Although redstart density had no impact on survival, habitat‐specific density influenced local movements between habitat types, with redstarts being less likely to disperse from their previous year's breeding habitat as density within that habitat increased. This finding was strongest in males and may be explained by conspecific attraction influencing settlement decisions. Survival was lowest in young males, but movement was highest in this group, indicating that apparent survival rates were likely biased low due to permanent emigration. Our findings demonstrate the utility of examining breeding dispersal in mark–recapture studies and complement recent work using spatially explicit models of dispersal probability to obtain greater accuracy in survival estimates.  相似文献   

14.
Sex differences in adult mortality may be responsible for male‐skewed adult sex ratios and male‐skewed parental care in some birds. Because a surplus of breeding males has been reported in serially polyandrous populations of Snowy Plover Charadrius alexandrinus, we examined sex ratio, early‐season nesting opportunities, adult survival and annual reproductive success of a Snowy Plover population at Monterey Bay, California. We tested the hypotheses that male adult survival was greater than female survival and that a sex difference in adult survival led to a skewed adult sex ratio, different mating opportunities and different annual productivity between the sexes. Virtually all females left chicks from their first broods to the care of the male and re‐nested with a new mate. As a result, females had time to parent three successful nesting attempts during the lengthy breeding season, whereas males had time for only two successful attempts. Among years, the median population of nesting Plovers was 96 males and 84 females (median difference = 9), resulting in one extra male per eight pairs. The number of potential breeders without mates during the early nesting period each year was higher in males than in females. Adult male survival (0.734 ± 0.028 se) was higher than female survival (0.693 ± 0.030 se) in top‐ranked models. Annually, females parented more successful clutches and fledged more chicks than their first mates of the season. Our results suggest that in C. alexandrinus a sex difference in adult survival results in a male‐skewed sex ratio, which creates more nesting opportunities and greater annual productivity for females than for males.  相似文献   

15.
Both intrinsic and extrinsic factors recorded at individual nests can predict offspring fitness and survival but few studies have examined these effects in the tropics. We recorded nestling survival, post‐fledging survival and age at first return of Roseate Terns breeding at Aride Island, Seychelles, over a 12‐year period (1998–2009). Nest data recorded at the egg, nestling and fledging stages were collected during six breeding seasons (1998, 2001–2005) and a capture‐mark‐recapture dataset of six cohorts of fledglings was obtained from 2001–2009. Logistic regression models were used to assess the predictive effect of reproductive variables on fledging success, while multistate capture‐mark‐recapture models were used to estimate post‐fledging survival and return–recruitment probabilities to the natal site. Nestling survival probability increased with earliness of laying and was negatively affected by tick infestation during the growth period (0–23 days). Fledging probability was also positively related to chick body condition, whereas other pre‐fledging reproductive parameters such as clutch size and egg size were not influential. A multistate modelling of age‐specific survival and return–recruitment (transition) rates found that first‐year survival differed between cohorts and was also negatively affected by tick infestation. Annual survival stabilized from age 2 onwards at 0.83 ± 0.02. Transition rates were positively related to body condition at fledging, with heavier individuals returning for the first time to the natal colony at a younger age compared with lighter individuals. These results highlight the importance of local conditions encountered by tropical seabirds during the breeding season in shaping demographic parameters.  相似文献   

16.
Generalizations used to support hypotheses about the evolutionof fidelity to breeding areas in birds include the tendencyfor fidelity to be greater in adult birds than in yearlings.In ducks, in contrast to most bird species, fidelity is thoughtto be greater among females than males. Researchers have suggestedthat fidelity in ducks is positively correlated with pond availability.However, most estimates of fidelity on which these inferences have been based represent functions of survival and recapture—resighting probabilities in addition to fidelity. We applied the modelingapproach developed by Burnham to recapture and band recoverydata of mallard ducks to test the above hypotheses about fidelity.We found little evidence of sex differences in adult philopatry,with females being slightly more philopatric than males inone study area, but not in a second study area. However, yearlingfemales were more philopatric than yearling males in both study areas. We found that adults were generally more philopatricthan yearlings. We could find no relationship between fidelityand pond availability. Our results, while partially supportingcurrent theory concerning sex and age differences in philopatry,suggest that adult male mallards are more philopatric thanonce thought, and we recommend that other generalizations aboutphilopatry be revisited with proper estimation techniques.  相似文献   

17.
Light‐level geolocators are currently widely used to track the migration of small‐sized birds, but their potentially detrimental effects on survival of highly aerial species have been poorly investigated so far. We recorded capture–recapture histories of 283 common swifts Apus apus and 107 pallid swifts Apus pallidus breeding in 14 colonies in Italy, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland that were equipped with 10 different types of geolocators (‘geolocator birds’), and compared their survival with that of, respectively, 215 common and 101 pallid swifts not equipped with geolocators (‘control birds’). Data were analysed using both GLMMs with return rate as a proxy for survival and mark–recapture models to estimate survival while accounting for recapture probability. In all the analyses, geolocator birds showed reduced apparent survival compared to controls. Geolocator weight was always lower than 3% of body mass, and did not affect survival per se. Geolocators with a light‐stalk, which is used in some geolocator models to reduce light sensor shading by feathers, decreased apparent survival more than models without light‐stalk. Apparent survival of geolocator birds significantly varied among sites, being much higher in northern Europe. Despite in our analyses we could only partly account for variable recapture probabilities among sites and for inter‐annual variability in survival, our results generally showed that equipping swifts with geolocators decreased their survival prospects, but also that the magnitude of this effect may depend on species‐specific traits. These conclusions are in line with those of other studies on aerial foragers. We suggest that future studies tracking the movements of aerial insectivorous birds should use devices designed to minimize drag.  相似文献   

18.
Determining demographic rates in wild animal populations and understanding why rates vary are important challenges in population ecology and conservation. Whereas reproductive success is reported frequently for many songbird species, there are relatively few corresponding estimates of annual survival for widespread populations of the same migratory species. We incorporated mark–recapture data into Cormack–Jolly–Seber models to estimate annual apparent survival and recapture rates of adult male and female tree swallows Tachycineta bicolor in eight local breeding populations across North America for periods of 7–33 yr. We found strong site‐specific and annual variation in apparent survival rates of adult swallows, and evidence of higher survival or site fidelity among males than females. There were no strong associations between putative overwintering region and survival. Strength and patterns of winter climate‐apparent survival relationships varied across four sites monitored for >15 yr; at one site, spring pond conditions, local spring precipitation and, to a lesser extent, winter North Atlantic Oscillation Index were credible predictors of annual apparent survival. Further work is needed to evaluate how survival is related to environmental conditions throughout the annual cycle and how these factors affect population dynamics of swallows and related species of conservation concern.  相似文献   

19.
We used a long‐term population band‐resight survey database, a parallel reproduction database, and multistate mark–recapture analysis to assess the costs of reproduction, a keystone concept of life‐history evolution, in Nazca boobies (Sula granti) from Punta Cevallos, Isla Española, Galápagos, Ecuador. We used eight years of resight and breeding data to compare models that included sex‐ and state‐specific survival probabilities and probabilities of transition between reproductive states using multistate mark–recapture models. Models that included state‐specific effects were compared with models lacking such effects to evaluate costs of reproduction. The top model, optimizing the trade‐off of model simplicity and fit to the data using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), showed evidence of a temporally varying survival cost of reproduction: nonbreeders showed higher annual survival than breeders did in some years. Because increasing investment among breeders showed no negative association with survival and subsequent breeding success, this evidence indicates a cost to both males and females of initiating, but not of continuing, a reproductive attempt. In some cases, breeders reaching the highest reproductive state (fledging an offspring) showed higher survival or subsequent breeding success than did failed breeders, consistent with differences in overall quality that promote both survival and reproduction. Although a male‐biased adult sex ratio was observed in this population of Nazca boobies, models of state‐ and sex‐specific survival and transition probabilities were not supported, indicating that males and females do not incur different costs of reproduction, and that the observed sex ratio bias is not due to sex‐specific adult mortality.  相似文献   

20.
California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) in otherwise good nutritional condition have been consistently affected by the marine biotoxin domoic acid since the late 1990s. In this study we evaluated the temporal and spatial stranding patterns of suspected and confirmed cases of domoic acid intoxicated sea lions from 1998 to 2006, using records of strandings along the California coast obtained from members of the California Marine Mammal Stranding Network. The majority of domoic acid cases were adult females (47%–82% of the total annual domoic acid cases), a contrast to strandings that were not related to domoic acid, which were generally dominated by juveniles and pups. Exposure to this biotoxin led to a 6.67‐fold increase in adult female strandings in 2000, and a 5.44‐fold increase in adult female deaths in 2006, relative to strandings and deaths of adult female not affected by domoic acid. Domoic acid cases have occurred annually since 1998 (except for 1999) between April and August, with clusters centered primarily at Pismo Beach (San Luis Obispo County), as well as at other beaches in San Luis Obispo, Monterey, Santa Cruz, Santa Barbara, Orange, and San Diego counties. The larger ecological and population level implications of increased domoic acid strandings and deaths, particularly among adult female sea lions, warrant further attention and need to be investigated.  相似文献   

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