Projecting species’ vulnerability to climate change: Which uncertainty sources matter most and extrapolate best?

Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to assess potential climate change impacts on biodiversity, but several critical methodological decisions are often made arbitrarily. We compare variability arising from these decisions to the uncertainty in future climate change itself. We also test whether certain choices offer improved skill for extrapolating to a changed climate and whether internal cross‐validation skill indicates extrapolative skill. We compared projected vulnerability for 29 wetland‐dependent bird species breeding in the climatically dynamic Prairie Pothole Region, USA. For each species we built 1,080 SDMs to represent a unique combination of: future climate, class of climate covariates, collinearity level, and thresholding procedure. We examined the variation in projected vulnerability attributed to each uncertainty source. To assess extrapolation skill under a changed climate, we compared model predictions with observations from historic drought years. Uncertainty in projected vulnerability was substantial, and the largest source was that of future climate change. Large uncertainty was also attributed to climate covariate class with hydrological covariates projecting half the range loss of bioclimatic covariates or other summaries of temperature and precipitation. We found that choices based on performance in cross‐validation improved skill in extrapolation. Qualitative rankings were also highly uncertain. Given uncertainty in projected vulnerability and resulting uncertainty in rankings used for conservation prioritization, a number of considerations appear critical for using bioclimatic SDMs to inform climate change mitigation strategies. Our results emphasize explicitly selecting climate summaries that most closely represent processes likely to underlie ecological response to climate change. For example, hydrological covariates projected substantially reduced vulnerability, highlighting the importance of considering whether water availability may be a more proximal driver than precipitation. However, because cross‐validation results were correlated with extrapolation results, the use of cross‐validation performance metrics to guide modeling choices where knowledge is limited was supported.     

Does a terminal drought tolerance QTL contribute to differences in ROS scavenging enzymes and photosynthetic pigments in pearl millet exposed to drought?

The control of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and the stability of photosynthetic pigments under stress conditions are hypothesized to contribute to drought tolerance. Here we studied how ascorbic peroxidase (APX), superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT) isozyme activities and chlorophyll a, b (Chl a, b) and carotenoids (Car) contents responded to water stress and whether they related to presence of a terminal drought tolerance QTL in pearl millet. We used PRLT2/89-33 (QTL donor), H77/833-2 (sensitive), and near-isogenic lines (QTL-NILs) introgressed with the QTL in H77/833-2 background. Under water stress there was no significant change in the total APX activity; only the proportional APX5 activity increased, with higher band intensity in tolerant genotypes. There were no significant changes in total activities of CAT and SOD under water stress, with similar band intensities in all genotypes, and a new CAT isozyme was induced in all genotypes. The photosynthetic pigment content decreased under water stress, although not differently in any genotype. Under water stress, the activities of most APX, CAT and SOD isozymes were closely related to the total chlorophyll/carotenoids ratio. Overall, besides APX5, water stress did not lead to major changes in the profile of isoenzymes involved in ROS scavenging. Similarly, the pigment content under stress did not discriminate genotypes according to the presence/absence of the QTL. This absence of discrimination for the ROS scavenging enzymes and for the pigment content under stress suggests that these traits may not play a key role in terminal drought tolerance in pearl millet.     

Heat tolerance variation reveals vulnerability of tropical herbivore–parasitoid interactions to climate change

Assessing the heat tolerance (CTmax) of organisms is central to understand the impact of climate change on biodiversity. While both environment and evolutionary history affect CTmax, it remains unclear how these factors and their interplay influence ecological interactions, communities and ecosystems under climate change. We collected and reared caterpillars and parasitoids from canopy and ground layers in different seasons in a tropical rainforest. We tested the CTmax and Thermal Safety Margins (TSM) of these food webs with implications for how species interactions could shift under climate change. We identified strong influence of phylogeny in herbivore–parasitoid community heat tolerance. The TSM of all insects were narrower in the canopy and parasitoids had lower heat tolerance compared to their hosts. Our CTmax-based simulation showed higher herbivore–parasitoid food web instability under climate change than previously assumed, highlighting the vulnerability of parasitoids and related herbivore control in tropical rainforests, particularly in the forest canopy.     

Can fungal endophytes fast-track plant adaptations to climate change?

Rapid climate change threatens plant communities. While many studies address the impact of climate change on plants and mechanisms of their resilience to climate stressors, the role of the plant microbiome in aiding plants' adaptation to climate change has been less investigated. We argue here that fungal endophytes, an important constituent of the plant microbiome, may be key to the ability of plants to adapt to climatic stressors. The rapid adaptive response of endophytes coupled with their ability to ‘transfer’ resistance to their hosts may fast-track plants' adaptation to climate change. We briefly review the importance of Class 3 fungal endophytes of terrestrial plants and discuss how they may accelerate adaptations to climate change in crops and natural plant communities and call for efforts directed at improving the understanding of fungal endophyte-facilitated plant health. Such information could aid in devising improved strategies for mitigating climate change effects on plant communities.     

Plant adaptation to climate change—Where are we?

Climate change poses critical challenges for population persistence in natural communities, for agriculture and environmental sustainability, and for food security. In this review, we discuss recent progress in climatic adaptation in plants. We evaluate whether climate change exerts novel selection and disrupts local adaptation, whether gene flow can facilitate adaptive responses to climate change, and whether adaptive phenotypic plasticity could sustain populations in the short term. Furthermore, we discuss how climate change influences species interactions. Through a more in‐depth understanding of these eco‐evolutionary dynamics, we will increase our capacity to predict the adaptive potential of plants under climate change. In addition, we review studies that dissect the genetic basis of plant adaptation to climate change. Finally, we highlight key research gaps, ranging from validating gene function to elucidating molecular mechanisms, expanding research systems from model species to other natural species, testing the fitness consequences of alleles in natural environments, and designing multifactorial studies that more closely reflect the complex and interactive effects of multiple climate change factors. By leveraging interdisciplinary tools (e.g., cutting‐edge omics toolkits, novel ecological strategies, newly developed genome editing technology), researchers can more accurately predict the probability that species can persist through this rapid and intense period of environmental change, as well as cultivate crops to withstand climate change, and conserve biodiversity in natural systems.     

Do seed and microsite limitation interact with seed size in determining invasion patterns in flooding Pampa grasslands?

Additive influences of the invasion ability of species (invasiveness) and the characteristics of the habitat which make it invasible (invasibility) cannot fully explain grassland invasion patterns. We tested the hypothesis that different species assemblages of grassland communities may partly result from interactive influences between the relative invasiveness of available species and community invasibility. During 10 months, we evaluated seed and microsite limitation of seedling emergence, survival, and recruitment of plants belonging to species with different seed size (large-seeded species vs. small-seeded species), with in a two-phase community mosaic typical of semi-natural grasslands in the southern flooding Pampa of Argentina. Seeds of large versus small-seeded species were sown either in species-poor patches dominated by a tall tussock grass (“pajonal”) or in species-rich patches dominated by short grasses (“matrix”), subjected to different levels of canopy disturbance (cut vs. uncut). Seed addition promoted seedling emergence for 7 out of the 10 species sown, and this effect was higher for large than for small-seeded species. After seed limitations were removed, interactive effects among seed size, community state and canopy disturbance reflected a strong positive influence of seed size on plant recruitment only in cut pajonal patches. Therefore, according to the stage of invasion process, relative species success may depend on non-interactive (seed-size effect on seed limitation to seedling emergence) or interactive influences among species invasibility and community invasiveness (from seedling emergence to plant recruitment). As a general conclusion, different assemblages of species are expected to successfully colonize spatially close grassland patches, according to both the available invasible species (seed size) and the community state and stage (species composition and canopy disturbance).     

The physiology and proteomics of drought tolerance in maize: early stomatal closure as a cause of lower tolerance to short-term dehydration?

Understanding the response of a crop to drought is the first step in the breeding of tolerant genotypes. In our study, two maize (Zea mays L.) genotypes with contrasting sensitivity to dehydration were subjected to moderate drought conditions. The subsequent analysis of their physiological parameters revealed a decreased stomatal conductance accompanied by a slighter decrease in the relative water content in the sensitive genotype. In contrast, the tolerant genotype maintained open stomata and active photosynthesis, even under dehydration conditions. Drought-induced changes in the leaf proteome were analyzed by two independent approaches, 2D gel electrophoresis and iTRAQ analysis, which provided compatible but only partially overlapping results. Drought caused the up-regulation of protective and stress-related proteins (mainly chaperones and dehydrins) in both genotypes. The differences in the levels of various detoxification proteins corresponded well with the observed changes in the activities of antioxidant enzymes. The number and levels of up-regulated protective proteins were generally lower in the sensitive genotype, implying a reduced level of proteosynthesis, which was also indicated by specific changes in the components of the translation machinery. Based on these results, we propose that the hypersensitive early stomatal closure in the sensitive genotype leads to the inhibition of photosynthesis and, subsequently, to a less efficient synthesis of the protective/detoxification proteins that are associated with drought tolerance.     

Which practices co‐deliver food security,climate change mitigation and adaptation,and combat land degradation and desertification?

There is a clear need for transformative change in the land management and food production sectors to address the global land challenges of climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation, combatting land degradation and desertification, and delivering food security (referred to hereafter as “land challenges”). We assess the potential for 40 practices to address these land challenges and find that: Nine options deliver medium to large benefits for all four land challenges. A further two options have no global estimates for adaptation, but have medium to large benefits for all other land challenges. Five options have large mitigation potential (>3 Gt CO₂eq/year) without adverse impacts on the other land challenges. Five options have moderate mitigation potential, with no adverse impacts on the other land challenges. Sixteen practices have large adaptation potential (>25 million people benefit), without adverse side effects on other land challenges. Most practices can be applied without competing for available land. However, seven options could result in competition for land. A large number of practices do not require dedicated land, including several land management options, all value chain options, and all risk management options. Four options could greatly increase competition for land if applied at a large scale, though the impact is scale and context specific, highlighting the need for safeguards to ensure that expansion of land for mitigation does not impact natural systems and food security. A number of practices, such as increased food productivity, dietary change and reduced food loss and waste, can reduce demand for land conversion, thereby potentially freeing‐up land and creating opportunities for enhanced implementation of other practices, making them important components of portfolios of practices to address the combined land challenges.     

Climate of origin affects tick (Ixodes ricinus) host-seeking behavior in response to temperature: implications for resilience to climate change?

Climate warming is changing distributions and phenologies of many organisms and may also impact on vectors of disease-causing pathogens. In Europe, the tick Ixodes ricinus is the primary vector of medically important pathogens (e.g., Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato, the causative agent of Lyme borreliosis). How might climate change affect I. ricinus host-seeking behavior (questing)? We hypothesize that, in order to maximize survival, I. ricinus have adapted their questing in response to temperature in accordance with local climates. We predicted that ticks from cooler climates quest at cooler temperatures than those from warmer climates. This would suggest that I. ricinus can adapt and therefore have the potential to be resilient to climate change. I. ricinus were collected from a cline of climates using a latitudinal gradient (northeast Scotland, North Wales, South England, and central France). Under laboratory conditions, ticks were subjected to temperature increases of 1°C per day, from 6 to 15°C. The proportion of ticks questing was recorded five times per temperature (i.e., per day). The theoretical potential to quest was then estimated for each population over the year for future climate change projections. As predicted, more ticks from cooler climates quested at lower temperatures than did ticks from warmer climates. The proportion of ticks questing was strongly associated with key climate parameters from each location. Our projections, based on temperature alone, suggested that populations could advance their activity season by a month under climate change, which has implications for exposure periods of hosts to tick-borne pathogens. Our findings suggest that I. ricinus have adapted their behavior in response to climate, implying some potential to adapt to climate change. Predictive models of I. ricinus dynamics and disease risk over continental scales would benefit from knowledge of these differences between populations.     

Is there a cost to resprouting? Seedling growth rate and drought tolerance in sprouting and nonsprouting Ceanothus (Rhamnaceae)

Many woody plant species that depend upon fire-cued seed germination lack the ability to resprout. As the ability to resprout is widely assumed to be the ancestral condition in most plant groups, the failure to sprout is an evolutionary derived trait. Models for the evolutionary loss of sprouting assume a trade-off between seedling success and vegetative resprouting ability of adults. Such models require higher seedling success rates in nonsprouters than in sprouters. On the other hand, there seem to be few a priori reasons why a strong sprouter might not also have highly competitive post-fire seedlings. To test the hypothesis that nonsprouting plants have higher growth rates and/or drought survival, we grew seedlings of Ceanothus tomentosus from sprouting and nonsprouting populations in a common garden experiment. Each of these C. tomentosus populations was paired with a sympatric Ceanothus species that differed in resprouting ability. Sprouters exhibited greater allocation to root carbohydrate storage than did nonsprouters, but overall relative growth rates did not differ. Nonsprouters had earlier onset of flowering. These results provide mixed support for models of a sprouting/nonsprouting allocation trade-off.     

Do cities simulate climate change? A comparison of herbivore response to urban and global warming

Cities experience elevated temperature, CO₂, and nitrogen deposition decades ahead of the global average, such that biological response to urbanization may predict response to future climate change. This hypothesis remains untested due to a lack of complementary urban and long‐term observations. Here, we examine the response of an herbivore, the scale insect Melanaspis tenebricosa, to temperature in the context of an urban heat island, a series of historical temperature fluctuations, and recent climate warming. We survey M. tenebricosa on 55 urban street trees in Raleigh, NC, 342 herbarium specimens collected in the rural southeastern United States from 1895 to 2011, and at 20 rural forest sites represented by both modern (2013) and historical samples. We relate scale insect abundance to August temperatures and find that M. tenebricosa is most common in the hottest parts of the city, on historical specimens collected during warm time periods, and in present‐day rural forests compared to the same sites when they were cooler. Scale insects reached their highest densities in the city, but abundance peaked at similar temperatures in urban and historical datasets and tracked temperature on a decadal scale. Although urban habitats are highly modified, species response to a key abiotic factor, temperature, was consistent across urban and rural‐forest ecosystems. Cities may be an appropriate but underused system for developing and testing hypotheses about biological effects of climate change. Future work should test the applicability of this model to other groups of organisms.     

Can we predict ectotherm responses to climate change using thermal performance curves and body temperatures?

Thermal performance curves (TPCs), which quantify how an ectotherm's body temperature (T_b) affects its performance or fitness, are often used in an attempt to predict organismal responses to climate change. Here, we examine the key – but often biologically unreasonable – assumptions underlying this approach; for example, that physiology and thermal regimes are invariant over ontogeny, space and time, and also that TPCs are independent of previously experienced T_b. We show how a critical consideration of these assumptions can lead to biologically useful hypotheses and experimental designs. For example, rather than assuming that TPCs are fixed during ontogeny, one can measure TPCs for each major life stage and incorporate these into stage‐specific ecological models to reveal the life stage most likely to be vulnerable to climate change. Our overall goal is to explicitly examine the assumptions underlying the integration of TPCs with T_b, to develop a framework within which empiricists can place their work within these limitations, and to facilitate the application of thermal physiology to understanding the biological implications of climate change.     

Is subarctic forest advance able to keep pace with climate change?

Recent climate warming and scenarios for further warming have led to expectations of rapid movement of ecological boundaries. Here we focus on the circumarctic forest–tundra ecotone (FTE), which represents an important bioclimatic zone with feedbacks from forest advance and corresponding tundra disappearance (up to 50% loss predicted this century) driving widespread ecological and climatic changes. We address FTE advance and climate history relations over the 20th century, using FTE response data from 151 sites across the circumarctic area and site‐specific climate data. Specifically, we investigate spatial uniformity of FTE advance, statistical associations with 20th century climate trends, and whether advance rates match climate change velocities (CCVs). Study sites diverged into four regions (Eastern Canada; Central and Western Canada and Alaska; Siberia; and Western Eurasia) based on their climate history, although all were characterized by similar qualitative patterns of behaviour (with about half of the sites showing advancing behaviour). The main associations between climate trend variables and behaviour indicate the importance of precipitation rather than temperature for both qualitative and quantitative behaviours, and the importance of non‐growing season as well as growing season months. Poleward latitudinal advance rates differed significantly among regions, being smallest in Eastern Canada (~10 m/year) and largest in Western Eurasia (~100 m/year). These rates were 1–2 orders of magnitude smaller than expected if vegetation distribution remained in equilibrium with climate. The many biotic and abiotic factors influencing FTE behaviour make poleward advance rates matching predicted 21st century CCVs (~10³–10⁴ m/year) unlikely. The lack of empirical evidence for swift forest relocation and the discrepancy between CCV and FTE response contradict equilibrium model‐based assumptions and warrant caution when assessing global‐change‐related biotic and abiotic implications, including land–atmosphere feedbacks and carbon sequestration.     

Accounting for soil organic carbon role in land use contribution to climate change in agricultural LCA: which methods? Which impacts?

The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment - Soil organic carbon (SOC) plays a key role in soil functioning and in greenhouse gas exchange with the atmosphere. Land use and land use changes...     

Which diameter and angle rule provides optimal flow patterns in a coronary bifurcation?

The branching angle and diameter ratio in epicardial coronary artery bifurcations are two important determinants of atherogenesis. Murray's cubed diameter law and bifurcation angle have been assumed to yield optimal flows through a bifurcation. In contrast, we have recently shown a 7/3 diameter law (HK diameter model), based on minimum energy hypothesis in an entire tree structure. Here, we derive a bifurcation angle rule corresponding to the HK diameter model and critically evaluate the streamline flow through HK and Murray-type bifurcations. The bifurcations from coronary casts were found to obey the HK diameter model and angle rule much more than Murray's model. A finite element model was used to investigate flow patterns for coronary artery bifurcations of various types. The inlet velocity and pressure boundary conditions were measured by ComboWire. Y-bifurcation of Murray type decreased wall shear stress-WSS (10%-40%) and created an increased oscillatory shear index-OSI in atherosclerosis-prone regions as compared with HK-type bifurcations. The HK-type bifurcations were found to have more optimal flow patterns (i.e., higher WSS and lower OSI) than Murray-type bifurcations which have been traditionally believed to be optimized. This study has implications for changes in bifurcation angles and diameters in percutaneous coronary intervention.     

Is there evidence for a shift in fish growth and recruitment success linked to climate change?

This study investigated whether a putative shift in climate regime in the North Atlantic in the 1990s coincided with changes in the growth and recruitment of roach Rutilus rutilus in the north-east of England. The relationships between R. rutilus growth and recruitment and the environment were significantly different before and after the putative shift in climate regime. Water temperature, river discharge, growth, recruitment success and the Gulf Stream Index co-varied until the late 1990s, indicating a gradual progression between periods of warm-and-dry and cold-and-wet summers. Since the late 1990s, there has been an increased prevalence of warm-and-wet summers, and recruitment success has oscillated between extremes on an almost annual basis. The north wall (northern boundary) of the Gulf Stream has been undergoing a displacement south since the late 1990s, and the speed and amplitude of the change appears to support the hypothesis that there was a regime shift in the climate of the North Atlantic Ocean. It is possible that a continued displacement south of the north wall of the Gulf Stream will lead to further increases in river discharge, reductions in water temperature and reduced fish growth and recruitment success in the long term.