Natal dispersal based on past and present environmental phenology in the pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca)

Natal dispersal allows individuals to reach suitable breeding sites. The effect of present plant phenology as a cue for dispersal into areas with favourable stages of development has been well established across avian and mammalian taxa. However, the effect of past experience is less understood. We studied the effect of past and present phenology of the environment on the direction and distance of natal dispersal in a passerine bird, the pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca). We monitored spring settlement of local recruits in six nest box plots along a 10-km stretch of a south-north gradient of plant and caterpillar food development. We found that males used both past experience of caterpillar phenology from early life and actual plant phenology during the recruitment season as independent cues for breeding settlement. Males that had experienced a mismatch with the caterpillar food peak as a nestling, and/or those that arrived late in the spring in the recruitment year, moved north of their natal site, whereas males that had experienced a better match with the caterpillars as a nestling, and/or those that migrated earlier in the spring, settled at a similar site or more to the south. In females, no such effects were found, suggesting that the usage of phenological cues is sex specific. In summary, tracking environmental phenology by natal dispersal may represent an effective mechanism for settling in new favourable areas, and may thus potentially cause rapid change of a species’ geographical breeding range in response to climate change.     

Maternal winter body mass and not spring phenology determine annual calf production in an Arctic herbivore

Warming of the Arctic has resulted in earlier snowmelt and green‐up of plants in spring, potentially disrupting the synchrony between plant phenology and breeding phenology in herbivores. A negative relationship between offspring survival in West Greenland caribou and the timing of vegetation emergence was the first finding of such a mismatch in Arctic mammals. However, other studies indicate that the energy for foetal growth and early lactation is predominantly drawn from stored energy reserves typical of ‘capital’ breeders, suggesting that conditions well before spring influence calf production more than the timing of spring onset. Here we use 20 years of observations of marked Svalbard reindeer to evaluate determinants of annual recruitment, as measured by the presence of a calf at foot in mid‐summer. Spring temperatures and the enhanced vegetation index were used as proxies for spring onset, while data on body mass and pregnancy rates in late winter allowed us to determine maternal condition and the reproductive status before spring. Pregnancy rate, offspring survival and annual recruitment were all strongly correlated with average late winter adult female body mass (r = 0.87; r = 0.83; r = 0.92, respectively). Contrary to the findings in West Greenland, neither early calf survival nor annual recruitment were correlated with the two measures of annual variation in spring phenology (r = – 0.07, p = 0.8 and r = – 0.15, p = 0.6, respectively). We also revisit the Greenland data and reveal that the pattern of covariance between early and late measures of fecundity, as well as between early measures of fecundity and offspring survival, correspond with the results from Svalbard. Our results emphasize that conditions affecting maternal body mass during winter explain close to all the variation in recruitment, questioning the importance of the role of a mismatch between plant phenology and calving date.     

Breeding phenology determines evolutionary transitions in migratory behaviour in finches and allies

The breeding season of long‐distance migratory birds often starts later and is shorter than in resident or short‐distance species breeding at the same latitude, but the reason for this is unclear. Here we investigate the association between migration distance and breeding phenology in a group of passerine birds, the finches and their allies, using phylogenetic comparative methods. We confirm that migration distance is related to aspects of the species’ breeding phenology after controlling for the effect of potentially confounding variables. Directional phylogenetic analyses suggest that evolutionary transitions in migration distance are determined by the breeding phenology. A relatively long migration distance is more likely to evolve in birds with a late, short breeding season, whereas transitions to short distance migration are more likely to occur in lineages with an early, long breeding season. These results suggest that migration distance is constrained by breeding phenology and not vice versa. Thus, breeding phenology may be an important ultimate factor shaping the evolution of migratory strategies.     

Migration phenology and winter habitat quality are related to circulating androgen in a long‐distance migratory bird

In migratory birds, the timing of departure from wintering grounds is often dependant on the quality of habitat on an individual's territory and may influence individual fitness, resulting in an interaction of life history stages across large geographical distances. American redstart Setophaga ruticilla males who overwinter in high quality habitats arrive early to breed and subsequently produce more offspring than late arrivers. Since many migratory species overlap vernal migration with the physiological transition to breeding, we examined if breeding preparation plays a role in this seasonal interaction. We tested the hypothesis that early arriving male redstarts from high quality winter habitats are in superior breeding condition by simultaneously measuring winter habitat quality (stable‐carbon isotopes) and breeding preparation (circulating androgen, cloacal protuberance (CP) diameter) upon arrival at breeding grounds. Compared with late arrivers, early arriving males were from higher quality winter habitats and had higher androgen, but smaller CPs. Males arriving with higher androgen were in more advanced physiological migratory condition, as measured by haematocrit. Early arrivers were more likely to successfully breed, but there was no significant relationship between androgen upon arrival and breeding success. One possible explanation for these relationships is that androgen measured during arrival is most relevant in a migratory context, such that birds with high androgen may benefit from effects on migratory condition, positively influencing fitness through earlier arrival.     

Relaxed selection when you least expect it: why declining bird populations might fail to respond to phenological mismatches

Ongoing climate change threatens to cause mismatches between the phenology of many organisms and their resources. Populations of migratory birds may need to undergo ‘evolutionary rescue’ if resource availability moves to earlier dates in the year, as shifted arrival dates at the breeding grounds may be required for persistence under new environmental schedules. Here we show a counterintuitive process that can reduce the strength of selection for early arrival when the resource peaks earlier. This happens when two processes combine to determine selection for early arrival: breeding success is higher if a bird does not miss the resource peak, but this occurs together with a ‘zero‐sum game’ where birds acquire good territories ahead of their competitors if they arrive early. The latter process can relax if the population has experienced a recent decline. Therefore, climate change can have two opposing effects: its direct effect on breeding success strengthens selection for early arrival, but this combines with an indirect effect of relaxed selection due to population declines, if territoriality is a significant determinant of population dynamics and fitness. We show that the latter process can predominate, and this can cause a failure for a population to adapt to a new schedule under changing environmental conditions.     

Carryover effects from natal habitat type upon competitive ability lead to trait divergence or source–sink dynamics

Local adaptation to rare habitats is difficult due to gene flow, but can occur if the habitat has higher productivity. Differences in offspring phenotypes have attracted little attention in this context. We model a scenario where the rarer habitat improves offspring's later competitive ability – a carryover effect that operates on top of local adaptation to one or the other habitat type. Assuming localised dispersal, so the offspring tend to settle in similar habitat to the natal type, the superior competitive ability of offspring remaining in the rarer habitat hampers immigration from the majority habitat. This initiates a positive feedback between local adaptation and trait divergence, which can thereafter be reinforced by coevolution with dispersal traits that match ecotype to habitat type. Rarity strengthens selection on dispersal traits and promotes linkage disequilibrium between locally adapted traits and ecotype‐habitat matching dispersal. We propose that carryover effects may initiate isolation by ecology.     

Tracking ice phenology by migratory waterbirds: settling phenology and breeding success of species with divergent population trends

Dependence on climate‐driven environmental cues in the initiation of life cycle stages is a critical attribute when assessing vulnerability of species to climate change impacts. This study focused on spring ice phenology as a cue to the settling of migratory waterbirds, asking whether there is an asynchrony between ice phenology and settling phenology that could affect breeding success of six species with divergent population trends. In the 37 study lakes in southeastern Finland, the ice‐out date not only varied considerably between years, but became progressively earlier during the study period, 1991–2018. Settling phenology of all species tracked inter‐annual variation in ice phenology. However, the degree of asynchrony between ice phenology and settling phenology varied between species, allowing discrimination between early and late settlers. Considerable inter‐annual variation also occurred within species, but in only one species did the degree of asynchrony correlate with the ice‐out date: for the horned grebe Podiceps auritus an earlier ice‐out date meant greater asynchrony between settling phenology and ice phenology. The degree of asynchrony between settling phenology and ice phenology did not affect breeding success in any species. However, ice phenology per se affected breeding success of horned grebes: earlier ice‐out was associated with lower annual breeding success. Breeding numbers of horned grebe showed a long‐term decline. Results suggest that short‐distance migratory birds are able to respond to climate change‐driven phenological changes in their breeding environments, and that this ability may not depend on the relative timing of breeding.     

Optimal reproductive phenology under size‐dependent cannibalism

Intra‐cohort cannibalism is an example of a size‐mediated priority effect. If early life stages cannibalize slightly smaller individuals, then parents face a trade‐off between breeding at the best time for larval growth or development and predation risk from offspring born earlier. This game‐theoretic situation among parents may drive adaptive reproductive phenology toward earlier breeding. However, it is not straightforward to quantify how cannibalism affects seasonal egg fitness or to distinguish emergent breeding phenology from alternative adaptive drivers. Here, we devise an age‐structured game‐theoretic mathematical model to find evolutionary stable breeding phenologies. We predict how size‐dependent cannibalism acting on eggs, larvae, or both changes emergent breeding phenology and find that breeding under inter‐cohort cannibalism occurs earlier than the optimal match to environmental conditions. We show that emergent breeding phenology patterns at the level of the population are sensitive to the ontogeny of cannibalism, that is, which life stage is subject to cannibalism. This suggests that the nature of cannibalism among early life stages is a potential driver of the diversity of reproductive phenologies seen across taxa and may be a contributing factor in situations where breeding occurs earlier than expected from environmental conditions.     

Reproductive phenology of a food-hoarding mast-seed consumer: resource- and density-dependent benefits of early breeding in red squirrels

The production of offspring by vertebrates is often timed to coincide with the annual peak in resource availability. However, capital breeders can extend the energetic benefits of a resource pulse by storing food or fat, thus relaxing the need for synchrony between energy supply and demand. Food-hoarding red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) breeding in the boreal forest are reliant on cones from a masting conifer for their nutrition, yet lactation is typically completed before the annual crop of cones is available for consumption such that peaks in energy supply and demand are not synchronized. We investigated the phenological response of red squirrels to annual variation in environmental conditions over a 20-year span and examined how intra- and inter-annual variation in the timing of reproduction affected offspring recruitment. Reproductive phenology was strongly affected by past resource availability with offspring born earlier in years following large cone crops, presumably because this affected the amount of capital available for reproduction. Early breeders had higher offspring survival and were more likely to renest following early litter loss when population density was high, perhaps because late-born offspring are less competitive in obtaining a territory when vacancies are limited. Early breeders were also more likely to renest after successfully weaning their first litter, but renesting predominantly occurred during mast years. Because of their increased propensity to renest and the higher survival rates of their offspring, early breeders contribute more recruits to the population but the advantage of early breeding depends on population density and resource availability.     

Affinity for natal environments by dispersers impacts reproduction and explains geographical structure of a highly mobile bird

Understanding dispersal and habitat selection behaviours is central to many problems in ecology, evolution and conservation. One factor often hypothesized to influence habitat selection by dispersers is the natal environment experienced by juveniles. Nonetheless, evidence for the effect of natal environment on dispersing, wild vertebrates remains limited. Using 18 years of nesting and mark–resight data across an entire North American geographical range of an endangered bird, the snail kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis), we tested for natal effects on breeding-site selection by dispersers and its consequences for reproductive success and population structure. Dispersing snail kites were more likely to nest in wetlands of the same habitat type (lacustrine or palustrine) as their natal wetland, independent of dispersal distance, but this preference declined with age and if individuals were born during droughts. Importantly, dispersing kites that bred in natal-like habitats had lower nest success and productivity than kites that did not. These behaviours help explain recently described population connectivity and spatial structure across their geographical range and reveal that assortative breeding is occurring, where birds are more likely to breed with individuals born in the same wetland type as their natal habitat. Natal environments can thus have long-term and large-scale effects on populations in nature, even in highly mobile animals.     

Long‐term climate impacts on breeding bird phenology in Pennsylvania,USA

Climate change is influencing bird phenology worldwide, but we still lack information on how many species are responding over long temporal periods. We assessed how climate affected passerine reproductive timing and productivity at a constant effort mist‐netting station in western Pennsylvania using a model comparison approach. Several lines of evidence point to the sensitivity of 21 breeding passerines to climate change over five decades. The trends for temperature and precipitation over 53 years were slightly positive due to intraseasonal variation, with the greatest temperature increases and precipitation declines in early spring. Regardless of broodedness, migration distance, or breeding season, 13 species hatched young earlier over time with most advancing >3 days per decade. Warm springs were associated with earlier captures of juveniles for 14 species, ranging from 1‐ to 3‐day advancement for every 1 °C increase. This timing was less likely to be influenced by spring precipitation; nevertheless, higher rainfall was usually associated with later appearance of juveniles and breeding condition in females. Temperature and precipitation were positively related to productivity for seven and eleven species, respectively, with negative relations evident for six and eight species. We found that birds fledged young earlier with increasing spring temperatures, potentially benefiting some multibrooded species. Indeed, some extended the duration of breeding in these warm years. Yet, a few species fledged fewer juveniles in warmer and wetter seasons, indicating that expected future increases could be detrimental to locally breeding populations. Although there were no clear relationships between life history traits and breeding phenology, species‐specific responses to climate found in our study provide novel insights into phenological flexibility in songbirds. Our research underscores the value of long‐term monitoring studies and the importance of continuing constant effort sampling in the face of climate change.     

Dispersal, interpatch movements, and survival in a shrubland breeding bird community

ABSTRACT Dispersal events can affect the distribution, abundance, population structure, and gene flow of animal populations, but little is known about long‐distance movements due to the difficulty of tracking individuals across space. We documented the natal and breeding dispersal of shrubland birds among 13 study sites in a 1000 km² area in southeastern Ohio. In addition, we radio‐marked and tracked 37 adult males of one shrubland specialist, the Yellow‐breasted Chat (Icteria virens). We banded 1925 juveniles and 2112 adults of nine shrubland species from 2002 to 2005. Of these, 33 (1.7%) juveniles were encountered in subsequent years (2003–2006) as adults (natal dispersal) and 442 (20.9%) birds initially banded as breeding adults were re‐encountered in subsequent years (breeding dispersal). Apparent survival of juvenile shrubland birds on their natal patches was 0.024 (95% CI 0.016–0.036). After accounting for the probability of detection, we found that 21% of birds banded as juveniles and recaptured as adults returned to their natal patches, whereas 78% of adult birds showed fidelity to the patch where they were originally captured. Moreover, natal dispersers tended to move farther than breeding dispersers (corrected natal median = 1.7 km ± 0.37; corrected breeding median = 0.23 km ± 0.10). We used our estimates of natal dispersal and annual apparent survival to estimate true survival at 0.11 (95% CI 0.07–0.18) for juveniles in their first year. However, this estimate was only applicable for birds dispersing within 7 km of their natal patches. Interpatch movements of radio‐marked Yellow‐breasted Chats were not uncommon, with 13 of 37 males located in more than one habitat patch. Overall, we observed low natal philopatry, but high adult site fidelity for shrubland birds in our study area. Considering the frequency of short‐distance movements observed (median = 531 m, range = 88–1045 m), clustering of patches within 1 km might facilitate use of shrubland habitat.     

Lower foraging efficiency of offspring constrains use of optimal habitat in birds with extended parental care

After reproducing successfully, birds with extended parental care form family groups. Despite being the dominant social unit, such family groups have been reported to switch to alternative habitat earlier than adults without offspring, with potential negative carry‐over effects for the next breeding season. Here we test a proposed mechanism for this earlier habitat switch, namely a low foraging efficiency in juveniles. Such a test is best performed under controlled conditions because in the field families may occupy food patches of a different quality than singles or pairs without young. We studied this mechanism in Bewick's Swans Cygnus columbianus bewickii, which trample (or ‘treadle’) for food buried in the sediment. The gross intake rate of juveniles was as low as 60% of that of adults, depending on the burial depth of the food. Trampling effort did not differ between age classes, but differences in intake rate were related to body size, suggesting that larger or heavier birds were trampling more efficiently. Corresponding giving‐up densities in the field were calculated to be c. 60% higher for juveniles than for adults. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that the lower foraging efficiency of juveniles may be responsible for the segregation of family groups from adults without offspring.     

Individual condition,but not fledging phenology,carries over to affect post-fledging survival in a Neotropical migratory songbird

Migratory animals face severe time and energy constraints during their annual cycle. These constraints may be exacerbated in young animals by conditions experienced during development that can affect both phenotype and phenology. For young migratory songbirds, the period between fledging and autumn migration, the post-fledging period, is believed to represent a time of intense selective pressure. However, there has yet to be a study that has assessed post-fledging survival for the entirety of the post-fledging period, probably due to the challenge of following juveniles as they move broadly across the landscape (tens to hundreds of kilometres). To overcome this challenge, we used an automated radiotelemetry array spanning 60 000 km² in southern Ontario, Canada, and miniature digital radiotelemetry tags to track 216 juvenile Barn Swallows Hirundo rustica continuously from fledging to migration. We hypothesized that young that fledged in better condition and earlier in the breeding season would have higher survival relative to birds fledging in poorer condition, because they have more energy to deal with resource constraints, and that early-fledging birds would depart on migration earlier than late-fledging birds because there is probably a fixed period of time required post-fledging to prepare for migration. We found that average cumulative apparent survival was 42% and that condition in the nest was a strong positive predictor of post-fledging apparent survival. We also found that birds that fledged earlier in the season departed on migration earlier in the autumn relative to late-fledging birds. Contrary to our prediction, average apparent survival was equal for early- and late-fledging birds. Our results suggest that factors during development that promote better nestling condition are critical for predicting future apparent survival prior to migration. Differences in annual apparent survival between early- and late-fledging songbirds, as commonly observed, may be driven by events occurring at later stages of the annual cycle.     

Annual variation in long‐distance dispersal driven by breeding and non‐breeding season climatic conditions in a migratory bird

Long‐distance dispersal is a fundamental process in ecology and evolution but the factors that influence these movements remain poorly understood in most species. We used stable hydrogen isotopes to quantify the rate and direction of long‐distance immigration in a breeding population of American redstarts and to test whether the settlement decisions that result in long‐distance dispersal are driven by habitat saturation or by the phenology of breeding‐season resources. Our results provide evidence that both natal dispersal and breeding dispersal were influenced by the timing of breeding‐season phenology, with both age classes more likely to disperse north in years when the onset of breeding‐season phenology occurs earlier than normal. Yearlings were also more likely to disperse north following winters with poor habitat quality on their non‐breeding grounds, demonstrating that carry‐over effects from the non‐breeding season influence natal dispersal in this species. Collectively, these results are consistent with the hypothesis that American redstarts use the phenology of breeding season resources as a cue to select breeding sites. Our results suggest that long‐distance dispersal may allow individuals to rapidly respond to advancing phenology caused by global climate change, though their ability to do so may be constrained by long‐term decline in habitat quality predicted for their tropical non‐breeding grounds.     

Long-term breeding phenology shift in royal penguins

The Earth's climate is undergoing rapid warming, unprecedented in recent times, which is driving shifts in the distribution and phenology of many plants and animals. Quantifying changes in breeding phenology is important for understanding how populations respond to these changes. While data on shifts in phenology are common for Northern Hemisphere species (especially birds), there is a dearth of evidence from the Southern Hemisphere, and even fewer data available from the marine environment. Surface air temperatures at Macquarie Island have increased by 0.62°C during the 30-year study period (0.21°C decade(-1)) and royal penguins (Eudyptes schlegeli) commenced egg laying on average three days earlier in the 1990s than during the 1960s. This contrasts with other studies of Southern Ocean seabirds; five of nine species are now breeding on average 2.1 days later than during the 1950s. Despite the different direction of these trends, they can be explained by a single underlying mechanism: resource availability. There was a negative relationship between the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and median laying date of royal penguins, such that low-productivity (low SAM) years delayed laying date. This accords with the observations of other seabird species from the Antarctic, where later laying dates were associated with lower sea ice and lower spring productivity. The unifying factor underpinning phenological trends in eastern Antarctica is therefore resource availability; as food becomes scarcer, birds breed later. These changes are not uniform across the region, however, with resource increases in the subantarctic and decreases in eastern Antarctica.     

Highly mobile insectivorous swifts perform multiple intra‐tropical migrations to exploit an asynchronous African phenology

With timely allocated movement phases, mobile organisms can match their space‐use with the seasonality of the environment and thereby optimise their resource utilisation over time. Long‐distance avian migrants are known to move with the seasonal dynamics on an annual basis, but how individuals respond to seasonality within their tropical non‐breeding range has been less studied. Here we analyse the movement pattern of a highly mobile aerial insectivorous bird, the pallid swift Apus pallidus, and its association with the local habitat phenology during the non‐breeding period, using individual‐based light‐level geolocation. We extracted timing and location of 21 birds’ residence periods, as well as characteristics of the intervening movements, such as distance and speed. We used time series of precipitation and vegetation data for each residence area to extract the timing of the local end of the rainy season and the onset of the dry season. The pallid swifts repeatedly upgraded their habitat by undertaking 2–5 intra‐tropical migrations correlated with the withdrawal of the rains and the onset of the local dry season. The birds arrived to the sites on average 12 days after rains ended and departed about two weeks after the onset of dry season suggesting that the birds closely tracked a spatiotemporal window presumably timed with optimal foraging conditions. Our results provide insights in the ways Palaearctic–African migrants respond to the asynchronous phenology within their sub‐Saharan non‐breeding range. We confirmed that pallid swifts actively respond to deteriorating conditions by repeated upgrades in habitat quality, which likely have substantial consequences for an individual's access to an essential, spatiotemporally ephemeral food resource. However, the pallid swifts did not surf an apparent resource wave per se as would be expected in a highly mobile species, indicating that also other factors, such as spatial patchiness of resources, may influence the movement decision.     

Habitat quality as a predictor of spatial variation in blue tit reproductive performance: a multi-plot analysis in a heterogeneous landscape

Vertebrate studies have rarely investigated the influence of spatial variation in habitat richness on both short-term (breeding) and long-term (offspring recruitment) reproductive performance using simultaneously multi-patch, multi-habitat type and multi-year approaches at landscape level. Here we present results of such an approach using the influence of two oak tree (Quercus ilex, Q. humilis) species on reproductive performance in Corsican blue tits (Parus caeruleus ogliastrae) as a model system. We found that blue tits breeding in rich broad-leaved deciduous patches consistently laid eggs earlier in the season, and produced larger clutches and more fledglings of higher quality, than those breeding in poor evergreen patches. Also, parents, especially males, were in better physical condition in the broad-leaved deciduous than in the evergreen patches. Surprisingly, estimates of long-term effects of reproduction, such as recruitment rates of locally born offspring, did not differ between the two habitat types. Our results suggest that short-term breeding performance and phenotypic quality of both chicks and parents do not necessarily provide reliable information about contributions to following generations at a scale larger than that of the local study plot. Differences in reproductive performance between the two oak habitat types could not be attributed to density-dependent effects, differences in levels of nest predation, or differences in age structure of the birds. We suggest that habitats that are optimal for breeding are not necessarily optimal for survival after the breeding season.     

Individual flexibility in habitat selection in the ortolan bunting Emberiza hortulana

In order to understand habitat selection in birds, it is important to know how individuals respond when encountering a variety of habitats during dispersal and must choose between them. However, very few field studies have addressed this question. We compared habitat selection of ortolan buntings Emberiza hortulana before and after dispersal events. In Norway, this species has a patchy distribution and breeds in different open habitats of which the two major ones are botanically distinct: raised peat bogs and forest clear‐cuts on dry, sandy soil. There was no evidence that habitat selection of males after natal dispersal was influenced by natal habitat, and 83% changed vegetation type. Habitat selection was random when taking the availability of each vegetation type into account, both at the landscape level and among habitats encountered along likely dispersal routes. Habitat selection after breeding dispersal was not influenced by the habitat of the patch of origin, and 62–71% changed habitat during successive dispersal events. Changing habitat did not seem to affect pairing or breeding success, but decreased with age. Lifetime patterns of habitat selection indicated that the majority (86%) changed habitat one or more times. However, the proportion never changing habitat (14%) was significantly higher than expected if settlement after dispersal was random (5%), suggesting that the majority of males were flexible whereas a minority was habitat conservative. These results provide some of the first systematic evidence based on settlement decisions of individuals that habitat selection of birds can be flexible with regard to vegetation type.