Estimating the distribution of heterogeneous treatment effects from treatment responses and from a predictive biomarker in a parallel-group RCT: A structural model approach

When the objective is to administer the best of two treatments to an individual, it is necessary to know his or her individual treatment effects (ITEs) and the correlation between the potential responses (PRs) and under treatments 1 and 0. Data that are generated in a parallel-group design RCT does not allow the ITE to be determined because only two samples from the marginal distributions of these PRs are observed and not the corresponding joint distribution. This is due to the “fundamental problem of causal inference.” Here, we present a counterfactual approach for estimating the joint distribution of two normally distributed responses to two treatments. This joint distribution of the PRs and can be estimated by assuming a bivariate normal distribution for the PRs and by using a normally distributed baseline biomarker functionally related to the sum . Such a functional relationship is plausible since a biomarker and the sum encode for the same information in an RCT, namely the variation between subjects. The estimation of the joint trivariate distribution is subjected to some constraints. These constraints can be framed in the context of linear regressions with regard to the proportions of variances in the responses explained and with regard to the residual variation. This presents new insights on the presence of treatment–biomarker interactions. We applied our approach to example data on exercise and heart rate and extended the approach to survival data.     

Estimating the decision curve and its precision from three study designs

The decision curve plots the net benefit of a risk model for making decisions over a range of risk thresholds, corresponding to different ratios of misclassification costs. We discuss three methods to estimate the decision curve, together with corresponding methods of inference and methods to compare two risk models at a given risk threshold. One method uses risks (R) and a binary event indicator (Y) on the entire validation cohort. This method makes no assumptions on how well-calibrated the risk model is nor on the incidence of disease in the population and is comparatively robust to model miscalibration. If one assumes that the model is well-calibrated, one can compute a much more precise estimate of based on risks R alone. However, if the risk model is miscalibrated, serious bias can result. Case–control data can also be used to estimate if the incidence (or prevalence) of the event () is known. This strategy has comparable efficiency to using the full data, and its efficiency is only modestly less than that for the full data if the incidence is estimated from the mean of Y. We estimate variances using influence functions and propose a bootstrap procedure to obtain simultaneous confidence bands around the decision curve for a range of thresholds. The influence function approach to estimate variances can also be applied to cohorts derived from complex survey samples instead of simple random samples.     

Inverse problem approach to regularized regression models with application to predicting recovery after stroke

Regression modelling is a powerful statistical tool often used in biomedical and clinical research. It could be formulated as an inverse problem that measures the discrepancy between the target outcome and the data produced by representation of the modelled predictors. This approach could simultaneously perform variable selection and coefficient estimation. We focus particularly on a linear regression issue, , where is the parameter of interest and its components are the regression coefficients. The inverse problem finds an estimate for the parameter , which is mapped by the linear operator to the observed outcome data . This problem could be conveyed by finding a solution in the affine subspace . However, in the presence of collinearity, high-dimensional data and high conditioning number of the related covariance matrix, the solution may not be unique, so the introduction of prior information to reduce the subset and regularize the inverse problem is needed. Informed by Huber's robust statistics framework, we propose an optimal regularizer to the regression problem. We compare results of the proposed method and other penalized regression regularization methods: ridge, lasso, adaptive-lasso and elastic-net under different strong hypothesis such as high conditioning number of the covariance matrix and high error amplitude, on both simulated and real data from the South London Stroke Register. The proposed approach can be extended to mixed regression models. Our inverse problem framework coupled with robust statistics methodology offer new insights in statistical regression and learning. It could open a new research development for model fitting and learning.     

Optimal Strategies for Managing Wildlife Harvest Under System Change

Wildlife populations are experiencing shifting dynamics due to climate and landscape change. Management policies that fail to account for non-stationary dynamics may fail to achieve management objectives. We establish a framework for understanding optimal strategies for managing a theoretical harvested population under non-stationarity. Building from harvest theory, we develop scenarios representing changes in population growth rate () or carrying capacity () and derive time-dependent optimal harvest policies using stochastic dynamic programming. We then evaluate the cost of falsely assuming stationarity by comparing the outcomes of forward projections in which either the optimal policy or a stationary policy is applied. When declines over time, the stationary policy leads to an underharvest of the population, resulting in less harvest over the short term but leaving the population in a higher-value state. When declines over time, the stationary policy leads to overharvest, resulting in greater harvest returns in the short term but leaving the population in a lower and potentially more vulnerable state. This work demonstrates the basic properties of time-dependent harvest management and provides a framework for evaluating the many outstanding questions about optimal management strategies under climate change. Published 2021. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Evidence for Depressed Reproduction of Golden Eagles in Washington

Beginning in 1977 the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife conducted annual surveys to determine statewide golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) occupancy and productivity. Current interest in the regional and national status of the species prompted our investigation to determine utility of historical data in assessing trends in reproduction, and to test efficacy of a sampling protocol that surveyed randomly selected territories and also accounted for detection probability. We found evidence indicating poor reproduction from 38 annual surveys conducted at 301 known territories statewide between 1977 and 2014. At 256 territories in eastern Washington, USA, apparent occupancy was low ( = 50.9%) and nesting success declined by 22%. All reproductive parameters were higher than at 45 territories in western Washington. We tested efficacy of a sampling protocol in 2013 and 2014 by surveying 108 randomly selected eastern territories. Probability of detecting eagles for these years from ground (= 89%) was greater than from air (= 66%). Our estimate of territory occupancy, corrected by probability of detection, was lower in 2013 (= 56.7%, 95% CI = 46.3–66.7%) than in 2014 (= 73.7%, 95% CI = 64.8–81.7%), as was the estimated number of breeding pairs (2013: = 158, 95% CI = 151–164; 2014: = 187, 95% CI = 182–192). Higher productivity (young/occupied territory) in 2013 (= 0.59, 95% CI = 0.40–0.82) than in 2014 (= 0.41, 95% CI = 0.27–0.59) and lower proportions of ≥1 immature eagle among nesting pairs in 2013 (16%) than in 2014 (31%), suggested higher immature pairing among sampled pairs contributed to inter-year differences in these reproductive parameters. Current and historical evidence for depressed golden eagle nesting in Washington is consistent with documented effects from habitat conversion, prey declines, lead contamination, and wind power development. We recommend future surveys in eastern Washington adhere to the random sampling protocol and conduct surveys at regular intervals to allow for trend analysis of reproductive parameters to better monitor golden eagle status. Surveys in western Washington, conducted exclusively from ground at all nests, will improve detection and cost efficiency. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

Anthropogenic Disturbance and Population Viability of Woodland Caribou in Ontario

One of the most challenging tasks in wildlife conservation and management is to clarify how spatial variation in land cover due to anthropogenic disturbance influences wildlife demography and long-term viability. To evaluate this, we compared rates of survival and population growth by woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) from 2 study sites in northern Ontario, Canada that differed in the degree of anthropogenic disturbance because of commercial logging and road development, resulting in differences in predation risk due to gray wolves (Canis lupus). We used an individual-based model for population viability analysis (PVA) that incorporated adaptive patterns of caribou movement in relation to predation risk and food availability to predict stochastic variation in rates of caribou survival. Field estimates of annual survival rates for adult female caribou in the unlogged ( 0.90) and logged ( 0.76) study sites recorded during 2010–2014 did not differ significantly (P > 0.05) from values predicted by the individual-based PVA model (unlogged: = 0.87; logged: 0.79). Outcomes from the individual-based PVA model and a simpler stage-structured matrix model suggest that substantial differences in adult survival largely due to wolf predation are likely to lead to long-term decline of woodland caribou in the commercially logged landscape, whereas the unlogged landscape should be considerably more capable of sustaining caribou. Estimates of population growth rates (λ) for the 2010–2014 period differed little between the matrix model and the individual-based PVA model for the unlogged (matrix model = 1.01; individual-based model = 0.98) and logged landscape (matrix model = 0.88; individual-based model = 0.89). We applied the spatially explicit PVA model to assess the viability of woodland caribou across 14 woodland caribou ranges in Ontario. Outcomes of these simulations suggest that woodland caribou ranges that have experienced significant levels of commercial forestry activities in the past had annual growth rates <0.89, whereas caribou ranges that had not experienced commercial forestry operations had population growth rates >0.96. These differences were strongly related to regional variation in wolf densities. Our results suggest that increased wolf predation risk due to anthropogenic disturbance is of sufficient magnitude to cause appreciable risk of population decline in woodland caribou in Ontario. © 2020 The Authors. The Journal of Wildlife Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Wildlife Society.     

The effects of hurricanes on the stochastic population growth of the endemic epiphytic orchid Broughtonia cubensis living in Cuba

We carried out a posthurricane evaluation of Broughtonia cubensis (Lindl.) Cogn., an endemic Cuban epiphytic orchid, after Hurricane Ivan (2004). We studied the transient responses in the stochastic dynamics of the species at three different sites over 13 successive years (2006–2019), monitored plot inventories (464 individuals in 10 transects) and built stochastic population models. The deterministic stochastic growth rate values () did not significantly differ (F = 2.76; p > 0.076) among the three sites over the 2006–2019 period. The long-term stochastic growth rate was 0.973 [0.932, 1.034]. The matrix elements that had the largest effect on were the transition to and stasis within the largest size class. Transient responses explained an average of 86% of the variation in the observed population growth rates , compared to 4% of the variation in the vital rates . Because transient dynamics are dependent on the population size composition, we ran extinction risk analyses under two scenarios: a population composed mainly of juveniles and another composed mainly of adults. There was little risk of falling below the quasi-extinction threshold before 25 year for both juveniles and adults. However, the risk of quasi-extinction was almost certain for both size classes by 80 year. We also simulated the effect of increasing the hurricane occurrence probability over 80 year on the population. There was little risk of extinction before 20 year in the baseline model, but there was a significant risk of extinction within 5 year when 90% of the individuals were affected by a new hurricane event.     

Mean growth rate when rare is not a reliable metric for persistence of species

The coexistence of many species within ecological communities poses a long‐standing theoretical puzzle. Modern coexistence theory (MCT) and related techniques explore this phenomenon by examining the chance of a species population growing from rarity in the presence of all other species. The mean growth rate when rare, , is used in MCT as a metric that measures persistence properties (like invasibility or time to extinction) of a population. Here we critique this reliance on and show that it fails to capture the effect of temporal random abundance variations on persistence properties. The problem becomes particularly severe when an increase in the amplitude of stochastic temporal environmental variations leads to an increase in , since at the same time it enhances random abundance fluctuations and the two effects are inherently intertwined. In this case, the chance of invasion and the mean extinction time of a population may even go down as increases.     

Another chemolithotrophic metabolism missing in nature: sulfur comproportionation

Chemotrophic microorganisms gain energy for cellular functions by catalyzing oxidation–reduction (redox) reactions that are out of equilibrium. Calculations of the Gibbs energy ( ΔG _r ) can identify whether a reaction is thermodynamically favourable and quantify the accompanying energy yield at the temperature, pressure and chemical composition in the system of interest. Based on carefully calculated values of ΔG _r , we predict a novel microbial metabolism – sulfur comproportionation (3H₂S + + 2H⁺ ⇌ 4S⁰ + 4H₂O). We show that at elevated concentrations of sulfide and sulfate in acidic environments over a broad temperature range, this putative metabolism can be exergonic ( ΔG _r <0), yielding ~30–50 kJ mol⁻¹. We suggest that this may be sufficient energy to support a chemolithotrophic metabolism currently missing from the literature. Other versions of this metabolism, comproportionation to thiosulfate (H₂S + ⇌ + H₂O) and to sulfite (H₂S + 3 ⇌ 4 + 2H⁺), are only moderately exergonic or endergonic even at ideal geochemical conditions. Natural and impacted environments, including sulfidic karst systems, shallow-sea hydrothermal vents, sites of acid mine drainage, and acid–sulfate crater lakes, may be ideal hunting grounds for finding microbial sulfur comproportionators.     

Intuitive and broadly applicable definitions of niche and fitness differences

Explaining nature’s biodiversity is a key challenge for science. To persist, populations must be able to grow faster when rare, a feature called negative frequency dependence and quantified as ‘niche differences’ () in modern coexistence theory. Here, we first show that available definitions of differ in how link to species interactions, are difficult to interpret and often apply to specific community types only. We then present a new definition of that is intuitive and applicable to a broader set of (modelled and empirical) communities than is currently the case, filling a main gap in the literature. Given , we also redefine fitness differences () and illustrate how and determine coexistence. Finally, we demonstrate how to apply our definitions to theoretical models and experimental data, and provide ideas on how they can facilitate comparison and synthesis in community ecology.     

An estimator of the Opportunity for Selection that is independent of mean fitness

Variation among individuals in number of offspring (fitness, k) sets an upper limit to the evolutionary response to selection. This constraint is quantified by Crow's Opportunity for Selection (I), which is the variance in relative fitness (I = σ²_k/(u_k)²). Crow's I has been widely used but remains controversial because it depends on mean offspring number in a sample (). Here, I used a generalized Wright-Fisher model that allows for unequal probabilities of producing offspring to evaluate behavior of Crow's I and related indices under a wide range of sampling scenarios. Analytical and numerical results are congruent and show that rescaling the sample variance (s²_k) to its expected value at a fixed removes dependence of I on mean offspring number, but the result still depends on choice of . A new index is introduced, Δ_I = Π– E(Î_drift) = Π– 1/, which makes Î independent of sample without the need for variance rescaling. Δ_I has a straightforward interpretation as the component of variance in relative fitness that exceeds that expected under a null model of random reproductive success. Δ_I can be used to directly compare estimates of the Opportunity for Selection for samples from different studies, different sexes, and different life stages.     

Optimal rotation of insecticides to prevent the evolution of resistance in a structured environment

Several strategies have been used in insecticide resistance management to prevent the evolution of resistance, but the spatial aspects of insecticide application are crucially important among these strategies. Here, we consider a structured environment that consists of on-farm and off-farm fields where crops are planted periodically in on-farm fields during cultivation periods. We define the basic reproduction rate () of resistance as the expected number of offspring of a resistant individual divided by that of a susceptible individual under the condition that the proportion of resistance is extremely small; it is measured as the quantity per cycle of the cultivation period. We calculate using realistic dose-survival curves under a given fitness cost of resistance genes. The evolution of resistance occurs if and only if the value is larger than 0. Then, we propose a procedure for calculating the optimal design of rotational spraying that prevents the evolution of resistance, that is, the evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) for farmers, satisfying the mortality required for managing the abundance of insects. We consider the following controllable factors in calculating the optimal design: the dose of insecticide, the number of sprays, the number of different types of insecticides and potentially, the size of on-farm fields.     

Relationship of current management practices to movements of Piping Plover broods in an Atlantic Coast population

Mobility of precocial chicks facilitates self-feeding and escape from predators, but also allows chicks to move into potentially dangerous areas. At Cape Hatteras National Seashore and Pea Island National Wildlife Refuge, North Carolina, precocial Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus) are managed with vehicle and pedestrian exclusion buffers to reduce potential anthropogenic disturbance and mortality. From 2015 to 2018, we monitored 23 broods from hatching until fledging age (25 days), and recorded brood locations, chick behavior, and potentially disruptive predators, people, or vehicles. We estimated straight-line hourly movement rates relative to brood habitat selection, behavior, and potential disturbance stimuli, daily movement distances, and 95% minimum convex polygon home range areas of broods through the pre-fledging period. Daily brood movements , range = 0–327.3 m/d) varied by age and year. Hourly movements also varied , range = 0.04–1450.9 m/h), but were not well described by the factors we tested. Daily and hourly movements were generally shorter than current management buffer sizes, broods were always observed within protective buffers, and were rarely disturbed by human activity or possible predators. Home range sizes of broods ( increased as broods aged. Our results show that movements by plover broods can be variable and relatively unpredictable across temporal and spatial scales, but the low rate of brood disturbance suggests effective management of anthropogenic disturbance. We recommend that under current conditions, regular monitoring by managers should continue to ensure that the size and location of implemented buffers track actual brood use without exposing broods to risks from human beach users.     

Valid oxygen uptake measurements: using high r2 values with good intentions can bias upward the determination of standard metabolic rate

This analysis shows good intentions in the selection of valid and precise oxygen uptake (O₂) measurements by retaining only slopes of declining dissolved oxygen level in a respirometer that have very high values of the coefficient of determination, r², are not always successful at excluding nonlinear slopes. Much worse, by potentially removing linear slopes that have low r² only because of a low signal-to-noise ratio, this procedure can overestimate the calculation of standard metabolic rate (SMR) of the fish. To remedy this possibility, a few simple diagnostic tools are demonstrated to assess the appropriateness of a given minimum acceptable r², such as calculating the proportion of rejected O₂ determinations, producing a histogram of the r² values and a plot of r² as a function of O₂. The authors offer solutions for cases when many linear slopes have low r². The least satisfactory but easiest to implement is lowering the minimum acceptable r². More satisfactory solutions involve processing (smoothing) the raw signal of dissolved oxygen as a function of time to improve the signal-to-noise ratio and the r²s.     

Impacts of temperature on metabolic rates of adult Extatosoma tiaratum reared on different host plant species

Access to balanced nutrition enables optimum health and development, body repair, fat storage, increased fecundity and longevity. In the present study, we assessed the responses of a generalist leaf feeder (the phasmid Extatosoma tiaratum) reared continuously on one of three host plants, tree lucerne (Chamaecyisus palmensis), bramble (Rubus fruticosus) and Eucalyptus species, in a low fluctuating temperature environment until adulthood. Once all individuals reached adulthood, we exposed each individual to a ramping temperature event (starting at 25 °C and ramping the temperature at 0.25 °C min⁻¹) and assessed their metabolic rates () responses at specific temperature 'bins' (25, 30, 35, 40 and 42 °C). Sex but not diet influenced respiration and metabolic rate. Male individuals, on average, had a higher than females. Sex and diet were significant influences on at different temperatures. Metabolic rates at lower temperatures were not affected by sex or diet type. At 35 °C, metabolic rates were influenced by sex and diet, with males reared on bramble and tree lucerne having a higher metabolic rate than females reared on the same foodplant, whereas Eucalypt reared animals showing an opposite trend. Lifetime egg production by females was 150% higher on bramble compared with the other host plants. Incorporating fluctuating temperature ranges into experiments will further help to understand the impact that thermal stress will have on the growth, development, performance and survival of insects in a more variable climatic and nutritional landscape.     

Respirometer in a box: development and use of a portable field respirometer for estimating oxygen consumption of large-bodied fishes

This study developed a portable, low-cost field respirometer for measuring oxygen consumption rates of large-bodied fishes. The respirometer performed well in laboratory tests and was used to measure the oxygen consumption rates ( O₂) of bull sharks Carcharhinus leucas (mean: 249.21 ± 58.10 mg O₂ kg⁻¹ h⁻¹ at 27.05°C). Interspecific comparisons and assessments of oxygen degradation curves indicated that the respirometer provided reliable measurements of O₂. This system presents a field-based alternative to laboratory respirometers, opening opportunities for studies on species in remote localities, increasing the ability to validate physiological field studies.     

NO and N2O transformations of diverse fungi in hypoxia: evidence for anaerobic respiration only in Fusarium strains

Fungal denitrification is claimed to produce non-negligible amounts of N₂O in soils, but few tested species have shown significant activity. We hypothesized that denitrifying fungi would be found among those with assimilatory nitrate reductase, and tested 20 such batch cultures for their respiratory metabolism, including two positive controls, Fusarium oxysporum and Fusarium lichenicola, throughout the transition from oxic to anoxic conditions in media supplemented with . Enzymatic reduction of (NIR) and NO (NOR) was assessed by correcting measured NO- and N₂O-kinetics for abiotic NO- and N₂O-production (sterile controls). Significant anaerobic respiration was only confirmed for the positive controls and for two of three Fusarium solani cultures. The NO kinetics in six cultures showed NIR but not NOR activity, observed through the accumulation of NO. Others had NOR but not NIR activity, thus reducing abiotically produced NO to N₂O. The presence of candidate genes (nirK and p450nor) was confirmed in the positive controls, but not in some of the NO or N₂O accumulating cultures. Based on our results, we conclude that only the Fusarium cultures were able to sustain anaerobic respiration and produced low amounts of N₂O as a response to an abiotic NO production from the medium.     

Morphology,Solid Structure and Antioxidant Activity in Vitro of Angelica sinensis Polysaccharide-Ce(IV)

Angelica Sinensis polysaccharide cerium (ASP−Ce) was prepared by Angelica Sinensis polysaccharide (ASP) and cerium ammonium nitrate (NH₄)₂Ce(NO₃)₆. and its morphology, and solid structure was investigated. The antioxidant activity of the ASP−Ce complex in vitro was evaluated. The antioxidant activity of ASP−Ce complex in vitro was evaluated by the scavenging activity of 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhyrazyl radical (DPPH), hydroxyl radical (⋅OH) and superoxide anion radical ( ⋅). The results showed that the ASP−Ce had the more ordered structure for inserting the Ce⁴⁺ into the polymer chain of ASP and there was little change in the conformation of the polysaccharide from Ce⁴⁺. Three free radical scavenging experiments proved that ASP−Ce had better antioxidant capacity than of ASP, especially on DPPH, and then on ⋅. The scavenging rate of ASP−Ce at 1.0 mg/mL on DPPH reached 71.6 %. Therefore, these results provide references for the further development and utilization of rare earth-polysaccharide.