Modeling population viability of captive elephants in Myanmar (Burma): implications for wild populations

Captive Asian elephants Elephas maximus , used as work animals, constitute up to 22–30% of remaining Asian elephants. Myanmar has the largest captive population worldwide (∼6000), maintained at this level for over a century. We used published demographic data to assess the viability of this captive population. We tested how this population can be self-sustained, how many elephants must be supplemented from the wild to maintain it, and what consequences live capture may have for Myanmar's wild population. Our results demonstrate that the current captive population is not self-sustaining because mortality is too high and birth rates are too low. Our models also suggest ∼100 elephants year⁻¹ have been captured in the wild to supplement the captive population. Such supplementation cannot be supported by a wild population of fewer than 4000 elephants. Given the most recent expert estimate of ∼2000 wild elephants remaining in Myanmar, a harvest of 100 elephants year⁻¹ could result in extinction of the wild population in 31 years. Continued live capture threatens the survival of wild and captive populations and must stop. In addition, captive breeding should be increased. These measures are essential to slow the decline and extinction of all of Myanmar's elephants.     

How accurate are population models? Lessons from landscape‐scale tests in a fragmented system

There is a growing debate about the ability of Population Viability Analysis (PVA) to predict the risk of extinction. Previously, the debate has focused largely on models where spatial variation and species movement are ignored. We present a synthesis of the key results for an array of different species for which detailed tests of the accuracy of PVA models were completed. These models included spatial variation in habitat quality and the movement of individuals across a landscape. The models were good approximations for some species, but poor for others. Predictive ability was limited by complex processes typically overlooked in spatial population models, these being interactions between landscape structure and life history attributes. Accuracy of models could not be determined a priori, although model tests indicated how they might be improved. Importantly, model predictions were poor for some species that are among the best‐studied vertebrates in Australia. This indicated that although the availability of good life history data is a key part of PVA other factors also influence model accuracy. We were also able to draw broad conclusions about the sorts of populations and life history characteristics where model predictions are likely to be less accurate. Predictions of extinction risk are often essential for real‐world population management. Therefore, we believe that although PVA has been shown to be less than perfect, it remains a useful tool particularly in the absence of alternative approaches. Hence, tests of PVA models should be motivated by the cycle of testing and improvement.     

Predation of experimental nests is linked to local population dynamics in a fragmented bird population

Artificial nest experiments (ANEs) are widely used to obtain proxies of natural nest predation for testing a variety of hypotheses, from those dealing with variation in life-history strategies to those assessing the effects of habitat fragmentation on the persistence of bird populations. However, their applicability to real-world scenarios has been criticized owing to the many potential biases in comparing predation rates of artificial and natural nests. Here, we aimed to test the validity of estimates of ANEs using a novel approach. We related predation rates on artificial nests to population viability analyses in a songbird metapopulation as a way of predicting the real impact of predation events on the local populations studied. Predation intensity on artificial nests was negatively related to the species' annual population growth rate in small local populations, whereas the viability of large local populations did not seem to be influenced, even by high nest predation rates. The potential of extrapolation from ANEs to real-world scenarios is discussed, as these results suggest that artificial nest predation estimates may predict demographic processes in small structured populations.     

Non-additive effects of pollen limitation and self-incompatibility reduce plant reproductive success and population viability

Background and Aims

Mating system is a primary determinant of the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of wild plant populations. Pollen limitation and loss of self-incompatibility genotypes can both act independently to reduce seed set and these effects are commonly observed in fragmented landscapes. This study used a simulation modelling approach to assess the interacting effects of these two processes on plant reproductive performance and population viability for a range of pollination likelihood, self-incompatibility systems and S-allele richness conditions.

Methods

A spatially explicit, individual-based, genetic and demographic simulation model parameterized to represent a generic self-incompatible, short-lived perennial herb was used to conduct simulation experiments in which pollination probability, self-incompatibility type (gametophytic and sporophytic) and S-allele richness were systematically varied in combination to assess their independent and interacting effects on the demographic response variables of mate availability, seed set, population size and population persistence.

Key Results

Joint effects of reduced pollination probability and low S-allele richness were greater than independent effects for all demographic response variables except population persistence under high pollinator service (>50 %). At intermediate values of 15–25 % pollination probability, non-linear interactions with S-allele richness generated significant reductions in population performance beyond those expected by the simple additive effect of each independently. This was due to the impacts of reduced effective population size on the ability of populations to retain S alleles and maintain mate availability. Across a limited set of pollination and S-allele conditions (P = 0·15 and S = 20) populations with gametophytic SI showed reduced S-allele erosion relative to those with sporophytic SI, but this had limited effects on individual fecundity and translated into only modest increases in population persistence.

Conclusions

Interactions between pollen limitation and loss of S alleles have the potential to significantly reduce the viability of populations of a few hundred plants. Population decline may occur more rapidly than expected when pollination probabilities drop below 25 % and S alleles are fewer than 20 due to non-additive interactions. These are likely to be common conditions experienced by plants in small populations in fragmented landscapes and are also those under which differences in response between gameptophytic and sporophtyic systems are observed.     

一个孑遗类群-尖舌苣苔族(Klugieae)物种的居群绝灭速率及其指示意义

本文通过对尖舌苣苔族(Klugieae)的5个属中12个种59个地方居群消长动态的统计分析,计算了该族各属物种的居群绝灭速率。在120年的时间区间内,尖舌苣苔族物种的居群绝灭速率和生境受破坏程度呈正相关。显然,一个类群物种的居群绝灭速率对于该类群分布地区环境的受破坏程度具有较强的指示意义。尖舌苣苔族各属物种的居群绝灭速率与其系统发育年龄和进化程度密切相关。进化水平较低,即系统发育上比较原始的类群,其居群绝灭速率往往较高;进化水平较高,即系统发育上比较年青的类群,其居群绝灭速率则低。地区性特有类群,尤其是特有属更容易遭受绝灭的危险。藉此,可在短时期内比较准确地了解该类群的濒危过程。     

Spatially-correlated extinction in a metapopulation model of Leadbeater's Possum

The importance of considering spatially-correlated extinction in metapopulation viability analyses was investigated using a model of the population dynamics of Gymnobelideus leadbeateri McCoy (Leadbeater's Possum). Fire caused local extinction of G. leadbeateri and induced changes in the suitability of the habitat over a period of decades and centuries. Spatially-correlated fires, in which the correlation between the incidence of fire declines with distance, and uniformly-correlated fires were simulated. The predicted risk of metapopulation extinction increased: (i) as the variance in the number of fires each year increased, (ii) as the mean fire interval decreased, and (iii) as the mean dispersal distance decreased. Incorporating spatial correlation in the incidence of fires between patches had little effect on the results, provided the variance in the number of fires per year remained the same and fires modified habitat quality. The predicted risk of metapopulation extinction was greater for spatially-correlated fires than for uniformly-correlated fires when fires only caused local extinction but did not change habitat suitability. Incorporating spatial correlation in the incidence of fire within patches, which allowed partial burning of patches, reduced the predicted risk of extinction. This effect was only slight when patches were smaller than about 50 ha. The results of our simulations demonstrate the importance of considering correlations in disturbance regimes in metapopulation models, especially if these models are used to assist the design of nature reserves.     

On the interpretation and application of mean times to extinction

As a metric of population viability, conservation biologists routinely predict the mean time to extinction (MTE). Interpretation of MTE depends on the underlying distribution of times to extinction (DTE). Despite claims to the contrary, all information regarding extinction risk can be obtained from this single statistic, the MTE, provided the DTE is exponential. We discuss the proper interpretation of MTE and illustrate how to calculate any population viability statistic when only the MTE is known and the DTE is assumed to be exponential. We also discuss the restrictive assumptions underlying the exponential DTE and the conditions under which alternative models for the DTE are preferable to the conventional (exponential) model. Despite superficial similarities between the exponential and alternative DTEs, several key differences can lead to substantially different interpretations of the MTE.     

中国城市化速度区域差异及其主要影响因素分析

在分析2000—2014年全国地级及以上城市的人口城市化速度和建成区面积城市化速度的基础上, 评价了城市化发展与城市规模、资源、环境、经济、社会等相关指标的关系, 明确了影响中国城市化速度区域差异的关键因子。结果表明: ①人口平均年增长率的范围在-2.18%—6.74%之间, 均值为1.06%;建成区面积平均年增长率的范围在0%—15.00%之间, 均值为5.35%。建成区面积城市化速度总体上远高于人口城市化速度, 不利于集约型和节约型社会建设。②西北地区和华北地区的人口城市化速度较快, 主要受到资源因素尤其是水资源的影响;华东、西南和中南地区的建成区面积城市化速度较快, 主要受到地理因子的影响, 具有地理区位优势地区(东南沿海)的城市化速度较快。但长此以往, 将会造成东南地区的资源(尤其是土地资源)紧张及环境污染的加重, 不利于城市的可持续发展。因此, 在城市化发展的过程中, 应该遵循集约、紧凑的发展理念, 不仅要考虑每个区域的资源环境承载力, 也要提高资源开发利用和输送调配的效率, 减小对资源的浪费和生态环境的破坏。     

Linear discrete models with different time scales

Aggregation of variables allows to approximate a large scale dynamical system (the micro-system) involving many variables into a reduced system (the macro-system) described by a few number of global variables. Approximate aggregation can be performed when different time scales are involved in the dynamics of the micro-system. Perturbation methods enable to approximate the large micro-system by a macro-system going on at a slow time scale. Aggregation has been performed for systems of ordinary differential equations in which time is a continuous variable. In this contribution, we extend aggregation methods to time-discrete models of population dynamics. Time discrete micro-models with two time scales are presented. We use perturbation methods to obtain a slow macro-model. The asymptotic behaviours of the micro and macro-systems are characterized by the main eigenvalues and the associated eigenvectors. We compare the asymptotic behaviours of both systems which are shown to be similar to a certain order.     

Species Survival in Fragmented Landscapes: Where to From Here?

We summarise the contributions of empiricists, modellers, and practitioners in this issue of Biodiversity and Conservation, and highlight the most important areas for future research on species survival in fragmented landscapes. Under the theme uncertainty in research and management, we highlight five areas for future research. First, we know little about the effects of density dependence on the viability of metapopulations, a requirement for fragmented landscapes. Second, successful early attempts suggest that it is worth developing more rigorous calibration methods for population viability analysis with spatially explicit, individual-based models. In particular, the balance between model complexity, ease of calibration, and precision, needs to be addressed. Third, we need to improve methods to discriminate between models, including alternatives to time-series approaches. Fourth, when our ability to reduce model uncertainty is weak, we need to incorporate this uncertainty in population viability analysis. Fifth, population viability analysis and decision analysis can be integrated to make uncertainty an explicit part of the decision process. An important future direction is extending the decision framework to adaptive management. Under the theme tools for quantifying risk and predicting species sensitivity to fragmentation, we highlight three areas for future research. First, we need to develop tools to support comparative approaches to population viability analysis. Second, population modelling can be used to find rules of thumb to support conservation decisions when very little is known about a species. Rules of thumb need to be extended to the problem of managing for multiple species. Third, species traits might be useful for predicting sensitivity but predictions could be further refined by considering the relative importance of population processes at different scales. Under the theme tools for reassembling fragmented landscapes, we consider the focal species approach, and highlight aspects of the approach that require more rigorous testing. Finally, we highlight two important areas for future research not presented in the previous themes or papers in this volume. First, we need to incorporate the deterministic effects of habitat modification into the modelling framework of population viability analysis. Second, an avenue of research that remains largely unexplored is the combination of landscape-scale experiments and population modelling, especially using data from existing fragmentation experiments and from experiments designed to test the effects of defragmenting landscapes.     

设施农业景观下破碎化麦田麦蚜及寄生蜂种群的最小适生面积

最小适生面积(MASH)指在一定的时空范围内物种能稳定存在的最小生境面积,它是种群生存力分析(PVA)的重要方法之一.本文采用基于种群数量-面积关系原理的MASH模型模拟了银川平原设施农业景观下破碎化麦田麦蚜、初寄生蜂与重寄生蜂种群发生的MASH.研究表明：密度 面积、增长速度-面积关系模型间存在反比例函数关系,不同物种存在的函数关系明显不同,尤其在不同营养级别的物种间,其函数关系差异更为明显.根据密度-面积关系,利用多项式回归模型计算了麦二叉蚜、麦长管蚜、燕麦蚜茧蜂、烟蚜茧蜂与蚜虫宽缘金小蜂的MASH,其营养级间的MASH差异显著.不同物种的MASH与营养级高低、体型大小、生境质量等有关.初寄生蜂最高的寄生率出现在800～1000 m²,可作为利用初寄生蜂自然控制麦蚜的依据,而不同营养级物种MASH差异可用于害虫的种群控制.