The conflict between natural and artificial selection in finite populations

Summary A single locus model of the interaction between natural selection and artificial selection for a quantitative character in a finite population, assuming heterozygote superiority in natural fitness but additive action on the character, has been studied using transition probability matrices.If natural selection is strong enough to create a selection plateau in which genetic variance declines relatively slowly, then the total response to artificial selection prior to the plateau will be much less than that expected in the absence of natural selection, and the half-life of response will be shorter. Such a plateau is likely to have a large proportion, if not all, of the original genetic variance still present. In selection programmes using laboratory animals, it seems likely that the homozygote favoured by artificial selection must be very unfit before such a plateau will occur. A significant decrease in population fitness as a result of artificial selection does not necessarily imply that the metric character is an important adaptive character.These implications of this model of natural selection are very similar to those derived by James (1962) for the optimum model of natural selection. In fact, there seems to be no aspect of the observable response to artificial selection that would enable anyone to distinguish between these two models of natural selection.     

Developmental selection and self-organization

Developmental selection is the differential survival and proliferation of developmental units, such as cellular lineages. This type of internal selection has been proposed as an explanation for diverse examples of self-organization, from the wiring of brains to the formation of pores on leaf surfaces. A general understanding of developmental selection has been slowed by failure to understand its relationship to familiar forms of genetical selection and evolution. I show the formal analogies between models of developmental selection and genetical selection. The general method I outline for the analysis of selective systems partitions self-organizing selective systems into generative rules that create variation and selective filters that move the population toward a target design. The method also emphasizes aggregate statistical measures of evolving systems, such as the covariance between particular traits and fitness. The identification of useful aggregate measures is a crucial step in the analysis of selective systems. I apply these concepts to a model of self-organization in ant colonies.     

Macroevolutionary patterns of bumblebee body size: detecting the interplay between natural and sexual selection

Bumblebees and other eusocial bees offer a unique opportunity to analyze the evolution of body size differences between sexes. The workers, being sterile females, are not subject to selection for reproductive function and thus provide a natural control for parsing the effects of selection on reproductive function (i.e., sexual and fecundity selection) from other natural selection. Using a phylogenetic comparative approach, we explored the allometric relationships among queens, males, and workers in 70 species of bumblebees (Bombus sp.). We found hyperallometry in thorax width for males relative to workers, indicating greater evolutionary divergence of body size in males than in sterile females. This is consistent with the hypothesis that selection for reproductive function, most probably sexual selection, has caused divergence in male size among species. The slope for males on workers was significantly steeper than that for queens on workers and the latter did not depart from isometry, providing further evidence of greater evolutionary divergence in male size than female size, and no evidence that reproductive selection has accelerated divergence of females. We did not detect significant hyperallometry when male size was regressed directly on queen size and our results thus add the genus Bombus to the increasing list of clades that have female-larger sexual size dimorphism and do not conform to Rensch's rule when analyzed according to standard methodology. Nevertheless, by using worker size as a common control, we were able to demonstrate that bumblee species do show the evolutionary pattern underlying Rensch's rule, that being correlated evolution of body size in males and females, but with greater evolutionary divergence in males.     

Implications of the difference between true and predicted breeding values for the study of natural selection and micro-evolution

The ability to predict individual breeding values in natural populations with known pedigrees has provided a powerful tool to separate phenotypic values into their genetic and environmental components in a nonexperimental setting. This has allowed sophisticated analyses of selection, as well as powerful tests of evolutionary change and differentiation. To date, there has, however, been no evaluation of the reliability or potential limitations of the approach. In this article, I address these gaps. In particular, I emphasize the differences between true and predicted breeding values (PBVs), which as yet have largely been ignored. These differences do, however, have important implications for the interpretation of, firstly, the relationship between PBVs and fitness, and secondly, patterns in PBVs over time. I subsequently present guidelines I believe to be essential in the formulation of the questions addressed in studies using PBVs, and I discuss possibilities for future research.     

Adaptation and habitat selection in the eco-evolutionary process

The struggle for existence occurs through the vital rates of population growth. This basic fact demonstrates the tight connection between ecology and evolution that defines the emerging field of eco-evolutionary dynamics. An effective synthesis of the interdependencies between ecology and evolution is grounded in six principles. The mechanics of evolution specifies the origin and rules governing traits and evolutionary strategies. Traits and evolutionary strategies achieve their selective value through their functional relationships with fitness. Function depends on the underlying structure of variation and the temporal, spatial and organizational scales of evolution. An understanding of how changes in traits and strategies occur requires conjoining ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Adaptation merges these five pillars to achieve a comprehensive understanding of ecological and evolutionary change. I demonstrate the value of this world-view with reference to the theory and practice of habitat selection. The theory allows us to assess evolutionarily stable strategies and states of habitat selection, and to draw the adaptive landscapes for habitat-selecting species. The landscapes can then be used to forecast future evolution under a variety of climate change and other scenarios.     

Variation in Drosophila melanogaster central metabolic genes appears driven by natural selection both within and between populations

In this report, we examine the hypothesis that the drivers of latitudinal selection observed in the eastern US Drosophila melanogaster populations are reiterated within seasons in a temperate orchard population in Pennsylvania, USA. Specifically, we ask whether alleles that are apparently favoured in northern populations are also favoured early in the spring, and decrease in frequency from the spring to autumn with the population expansion. We use SNP data collected for 46 metabolic genes and 128 SNPs representing the central metabolic pathway and examine for the aggregate SNP allele frequencies whether the association of allele change with latitude and that with increasing days of spring–autumn season are reversed. Testing by random permutation, we observe a highly significant negative correlation between these associations that is consistent with this expectation. This correlation is stronger when we confine our analysis to only those alleles that show significant latitudinal changes. This pattern is not caused by association with chromosomal inversions. When data are resampled using SNPs for amino acid change the relationship is not significant but is supported when SNPs associated with cis-expression are only considered. Our results suggest that climate factors driving latitudinal molecular variation in a metabolic pathway are related to those operating on a seasonal level within populations.     

Stabilizing natural selection on the early expression of a secondary sexual trait in a passerine bird

Natural selection is a central tenet of evolutionary theory, yet the estimation of the direction and intensity of selection remains problematic. Here, we assess the strength of selection on the early expression of a secondary sexual ornament, bill colour, in male European blackbirds (Turdus merula) using 5 years of capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data. The best-fitting model consisted of a quadratic relationship between survival rate and bill colour, indicating stabilizing natural selection on the early expression of a secondary sexual trait. There was no evidence for sexual selection acting on bill colour in the first year. We suggest that the consideration of early selection and the adoption of refined statistical methods may reveal patterns of selection in the wild that have, as yet, remained undetected.     

Natural selection and the genetics of adaptation in threespine stickleback

Growing knowledge of the molecular basis of adaptation in wild populations is expanding the study of natural selection. We summarize ongoing efforts to infer three aspects of natural selection—mechanism, form and history—from the genetics of adaptive evolution in threespine stickleback that colonized freshwater after the last ice age. We tested a mechanism of selection for reduced bony armour in freshwater by tracking genotype and allele frequency changes at an underlying major locus (Ectodysplasin) in transplanted stickleback populations. We inferred disruptive selection on genotypes at the same locus in a population polymorphic for bony armour. Finally, we compared the distribution of phenotypic effect sizes of genes underlying changes in body shape with that predicted by models of adaptive peak shifts following colonization of freshwater. Studies of the effects of selection on genes complement efforts to identify the molecular basis of adaptive differences, and improve our understanding of phenotypic evolution.     

Why male butterflies are non-mimetic: natural selection,sexual selection,group selection,modification and sieving*

Thomas Belt suggested that the frequent limitation of mimicry in butterflies to the female resulted from sexual selection. Because female butterflies store sperm they can be fully fertile after only one mating; the reproductive success of a male is proportional to the number of times he mates. Sexual selection is therefore much stronger in males than females, with selection coefficients being greater by a small multiple of the number of times a female is courted during her life (long-lived species) or of the reciprocal of the female mortality rate between courtships (short-lived species). As butterflies of both sexes respond to colour when courting, sexual selection resists colour changes especially strongly in males. As a result, genes conferring new mimetic colour patterns can often become established in a butterfly population much more readily if their expression is initially limited to females; when the population size of a Batesian mimic, its model, and its predator fluctuates, such sex-limited genes have an enhanced probability of ultimate fixation in the population, and a reduced chance of loss; this effect is accentuated by the selection of modifiers which improve the mimicry. When the establishment of unimodal mimicry (expressed in both sexes) is favoured in a Batesian mimic, the gene tends to rise to an equilibrium frequency at which modifiers suppressing the expression of the mimicry only in males and'modifiers enhancing the mimicry only in females are favoured. The outcome is female-limited mimicry, or unimodal mimicry with better mimicry in the females, the males either retaining some of their sexual colour or the selective behaviour of the females becoming altered. In a Muellerian mimic there is no such equilibrium and selection ultimately favours expression of mimicry in both sexes and an appropriate alteration in the courtship responses. Hence Muellerian mimicry is seldom female-limited. Exceptional cases appear to result from the sexes flying in separate habitats. The genetical evidence in Papilio and Heliconius favours initial limitation of expression over subsequent modification as the usual basis for female-limited mimicry. Other explanations of female-limited mimicry can be found wanting in various ways; a higher predation rate on females could produce sex-limitation, but is probably not a strong factor. But the greater variability of the female in Lepidoptera may indicate lesser developmental stability, which could result in greater penetrance of mutants in the female, and hence account for the initial female-limitation. At very high densities of a mimetic species which has no non-mimetic form, mimicry tends to deteriorate more rapidly in a unimodal than in an otherwise identical sex-limited species. Although by itself this would equally favour male-limitation, and hence cannot explain the predominance of female-limitation, this effect may over evolutionary time be causing a slight increase in the proportion of sex-limited species among mimics. The stability of some mimetic polymorphisms is investigated by linear approximation: in some instances a stable equilibrium can be changed into an oscillating equilibrium by changes in the population size.     

Variability selection in hominid evolution

Variability selection (abbreviated as VS) is a process considered to link adaptive change to large degrees of environment variability. Its application to hominid evolution is based, in part, on the pronounced rise in environmental remodeling that took place over the past several million years. The VS hypothesis differs from prior views of hominid evolution, which stress the consistent selective effects associated with specific habitats or directional trends (e.g., woodland, savanna expansion, cooling). According to the VS hypothesis, wide fluctuations over time created a growing disparity in adaptive conditions. Inconsistency in selection eventually caused habitat-specific adaptations to be replaced by structures and behaviors responsive to complex environmental change. Key hominid adaptations, in fact, emerged during times of heightened variability. Early bipedality, encephalized brains, and complex human sociality appear to signify a sequence of VS adaptations—i.e., a ratcheting up of versatility and responsiveness to novel environments experienced over the past 6 million years. The adaptive results of VS cannot be extrapolated from selection within a single environmental shift or relatively stable habitat. If some complex traits indeed require disparities in adaptive setting (and relative fitness) in order to evolve, the VS idea counters the prevailing view that adaptive change necessitates long-term, directional consistency in selection. © 1998 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Probabilistic causation and the explanatory role of natural selection

The explanatory role of natural selection is one of the long-term debates in evolutionary biology. Nevertheless, the consensus has been slippery because conceptual confusions and the absence of a unified, formal causal model that integrates different explanatory scopes of natural selection. In this study we attempt to examine two questions: (i) What can the theory of natural selection explain? and (ii) Is there a causal or explanatory model that integrates all natural selection explananda? For the first question, we argue that five explananda have been assigned to the theory of natural selection and that four of them may be actually considered explananda of natural selection. For the second question, we claim that a probabilistic conception of causality and the statistical relevance concept of explanation are both good models for understanding the explanatory role of natural selection. We review the biological and philosophical disputes about the explanatory role of natural selection and formalize some explananda in probabilistic terms using classical results from population genetics. Most of these explananda have been discussed in philosophical terms but some of them have been mixed up and confused. We analyze and set the limits of these problems.     

Variation in scale numbers is consistent with ecologically based natural selection acting within and between lizard species

Recent studies have demonstrated that changes in scale number are correlated with ecological variables such as precipitation, and this suggests that scale number may be under selection to maintain water balance in reptiles. Here, we present new evidence that variation in scale numbers within and among species of Anolis lizards is under ecologically based natural selection. We measured scalation of the brown anole, Anolis sagrei, in two habitat types on each of five islands in the Bahamas. We also measured scalation for 12 species of anole representing six different ecomorphs from the Greater Antilles. Within populations of A. sagrei, scale numbers increased with increasing precipitation and with decreasing temperature in open arid habitats. Variation measured among species of Anolis from the Greater Antilles showed similar patterns with temperature, precipitation, and elevation. Independent contrasts using scale count data indicated that variation in scale number was congruent within and between species, even after accounting for the influence of phylogeny. We measured natural selection (survival to maturity) on scale number in A. sagrei over two different habitat types in the Bahamas. Patterns of natural selection were congruent with the correlational results described. Finally, results from a breeding experiment in the laboratory provide preliminary evidence that variation in scale number is heritable, and suggests a mechanism for generating these correlations. Our results provide new evidence that the diversification of anoles has been shaped by natural selection and that ecologically based selection pressures help explain diversification at both the population and species levels. Co-ordinating editor: M. Klaassen     

Differences in the temporal dynamics of phenotypic selection among fitness components in the wild

The balance of selection acting through different fitness components (e.g. fecundity, mating success, survival) determines the potential tempo and trajectory of adaptive evolution. Yet the extent to which the temporal dynamics of phenotypic selection may vary among fitness components is poorly understood. Here, we compiled a database of 3978 linear selection coefficients from temporally replicated studies of selection in wild populations to address this question. Across studies, we find that multi-year selection through mating success and fecundity is stronger than selection through survival, but varies less in direction. We also report that selection through mating success varies more in long-term average strength than selection through either survival or fecundity. The consistency in direction and stronger long-term average strength of selection through mating success and fecundity suggests that selection through these fitness components should cause more persistent directional evolution relative to selection through survival. Similar patterns were apparent for the subset of studies that evaluated the temporal dynamics of selection on traits simultaneously using several different fitness components, but few such studies exist. Taken together, these results reveal key differences in the temporal dynamics of selection acting through different fitness components, but they also reveal important limitations in our understanding of how selection drives adaptive evolution.     

Phenotypic selection and response to selection in Lobularia maritima: importance of direct and correlational components of natural selection

By using selection differentials, gradients and structural equation modelling (SEM), I have quantified the phenotypic selection acting on Lobularia maritima (Cruciferae) flower size, display, colour and density, using data on lifetime female fitness. Furthermore, by analysing the resulting F₁ generation in field and greenhouse conditions, I estimated the actual intergenerational change in the value of these traits. Both pollinators preferred plants with many and large flowers. Strong directional selection for increased flower display was found in all years of the study, regardless of the technique used. Indirect selection due to a high significant correlation with flower display occurred on flower colour and size. SEM showed that pollinators played only a minor role in this observed phenotypic selection. The analysis of the phenotypes of F₁ plants showed that flower display actually increased across generations. In addition, white flowers were significantly more frequent in the offspring population than in the parental one, mostly due to the association between flower display and white coloured flowers. This suggests that both direct and indirect selection can play a role in the evolution of correlated traits in this crucifer.     

Natural and artificial selection on a deviant character of the anal papillae in Drosophila melanogaster and their significance for salt adaptation

Artificial selection was carried out on a deviant character of remnants of the anal papillae in pupae of Drosophila melanogaster, i. e. stretched (S) instead of the normal retracted (R) papillae. A chromosomal interchange between the R- and S-selection lines revealed the polygenic determination of the S-character. A comparison of lines with a different number of chromosomes of the S-line shows the importance of properties of the anal papillae for salt adaptation. By a comparison of populations obtained by artificial selection for anal papillae and by natural selection for salt adaptation we could analyse the significance of the deviant character under natural selection on media with increasing percentages of salt. Our results shows that taking into account only one character in natural selection is often a simplification. However, applying artificial selection on components of the phenotype contributing to the adaptation make an important contribution to the analysis of adaptive processes.     

A comparative analysis of the Darwin-Wallace papers and the development of the concept of natural selection

The classical theory of descent with modification by means of natural selection had no mother, but did have two English fathers, Charles Darwin (1809–1882) and Alfred Russel Wallace (1823–1913). In 1858,the Linnean Society of London published two contributions of these naturalists and acknowledged both authors as the proponents of a novel hypothesis on the driving force of organismic evolution. In the present report the most important sections of the Darwin-Wallace papers are summarized. This close reading of both publications reveals six striking differences in emphasis: Darwin and Wallace did not propose identical ideas. The species definitions of both authors are described and the further development of the concept of natural selection in wild populations is reviewed. It is shown that the contributions of A.R. Wallace, who died 90 years ago, are more significant than usually acknowledged. I conclude that natural selection's lesser known co-discoverer should be regarded as one of the most important pioneers of evolutionary biology, whose original contributions are underestimated by most contemporary scientists.     

Ecological selection against hybrids in natural populations of sympatric threespine sticklebacks

Experimental work has provided evidence for extrinsic post-zygotic isolation, a phenomenon unique to ecological speciation. The role that ecological components to reduced hybrid fitness play in promoting speciation and maintaining species integrity in the wild, however, is not as well understood. We addressed this problem by testing for selection against naturally occurring hybrids in two sympatric species pairs of benthic and limnetic threespine sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus). If post-zygotic isolation is a significant reproductive barrier, the relative frequency of hybrids within a population should decline significantly across the life-cycle. Such a trend in a natural population would give independent support to experimental evidence for extrinsic, rather than intrinsic, post-zygotic isolation in this system. Indeed, tracing mean individual hybridity (genetic intermediateness) across three life-history stages spanning four generations revealed just such a decline. This provides compelling evidence that extrinsic selection plays an important role in maintaining species divergence and supports a role for ecological speciation in sticklebacks.     

The power of allele frequency comparisons to detect the footprint of selection in natural and experimental situations

Recently, inter-population comparisons of allele frequencies to detect past selection haven gained popularity. Data from genome-wide scans are used to detect the number and position of genes that have responded to unknown selection pressures in natural populations, or known selection pressures in experimental lines. Yet, the limitations and possibilities of these methods have not been well studied. In this paper, the objectives were (1) to investigate the distance over which a signal of directional selection is detectable under various scenarios, and (2) to study the power of the method depending on the properties of the used markers, for both natural populations and experimental set-ups. A combination of recurrence equations and simulations was used. The results show that intermediate strength selection on new mutations can be detected with a marker spacing of about 0.5 cM in large natural populations, 200 to 400 generations after the divergence of subpopulations. In experimental situations, only strong selection will be detectable, while markers can be spaced a few cM apart. Adaptation from standing variation in the base population will be hard to detect, though some solutions are presented for experimental designs.