Modelling Spatio-Temporal Effects of Environment on Atlantic Herring, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Clupea harengus</Emphasis>

Trends in mean abundance of North Sea Atlantic herring, Clupea harengus, over the period of 1992–1995, were modelled as a function of spatial location and ocean environmental conditions using generalized additive models (GAM). In all four years, the average herring abundance was found to be highest in latitudes around 60.5°N, and decreased with increasing latitude. The thermocline depth had a significant effect on prespawning herring abundance both directly, as a main effect, and indirectly, through its interactive effect with the temperature at 60m. Average herring abundance was highest in areas having deeper thermocline depths (up to 45m) and temperatures at 60m between 9 and 11°C. Prespawning herring abundance was greater in areas of cooler surface waters in the south than in the north. Well-mixed waters and transition zones between frontal and stratified areas having sea surface temperatures mainly between 11 and 12°C and to a lesser extent between 13 and 14°C were associated with the highest herring abundance. Herring appeared to avoid the cold bottom waters in summer. Multiyear GAM analysis revealed consistent environmental preferenda of herring and affirmed further a significant decrease in herring abundance. As herring numbers declined, the population aggregated in the most preferred areas. The inter-relationships of herring and environmental factors across the study period, were similar in their structure and significance, suggesting that preferred areas for location of herring can be reasonably predicted.     

Herring and Sprat Abundance Indices Predict Chick Growth and Reproductive Performance of Common Terns Breeding in the Wadden Sea

Herring (Clupea harengus) and sprat (Sprattus sprattus) are the key prey resources of common terns (Sterna hirundo) breeding in the Wadden Sea. Breeding success of the terns has been below average since 2002, coinciding with exceptionally low herring recruitment and sprat abundance. Time series of herring and sprat abundance in the North Sea and in the Wadden Sea were analyzed to explain long-term breeding success and chick development at two common tern breeding colonies. North Sea herring recruitment and sprat abundance in the Wadden Sea explained the largest part of common tern breeding success, both as single variables and in a multiple regression approach. Breeding success showed stronger correlations with herring recruitment indices derived from the North Sea region compared to the Wadden Sea. Also, herring and sprat abundance data explained more variability in breeding success than of more directly responding measures such as growth rate and maximum weight of chicks. Despite spatial and temporal incoherences between fish surveys and the common tern breeding season, breeding success of common terns reflected the abundance of their key prey fish beyond their foraging range and breeding season. We argue that the ecological connectivity between large- and small-scale herring abundance and the responsiveness of common tern breeding success is strong enough to establish a fish–seabird indicator system to be potentially valuable in monitoring and conservation.     

Stock collapse and its effect on species interactions: Cod and herring in the Norwegian‐Barents Seas system as an example

Both the Norwegian Spring Spawning herring (Clupea harengus) and the Northeast Arctic (NEA) cod (Gadus morhua) are examples of strong stock reduction and decline of the associated fisheries due to overfishing followed by a recovery. Cod and herring are both part of the Barents Sea ecosystem, which has experienced major warming events in the early (1920–1940) and late 20th century. While the collapse or near collapse of these stocks seems to be linked to an instability created by overfishing and climate, the difference of population dynamics before and after is not fully understood. In particular, it is unclear how the changes in population dynamics before and after the collapses are associated with biotic interactions. The combination of the availability of unique long‐term time series for herring and cod makes it a well‐suited study system to investigate the effects of collapse. We examine how species interactions may differently affect the herring and cod population dynamic before and after a collapse. Particularly we explore, using a GAM modeling approach, how herring could affect cod and vice versa. We found that the effect of cod biomass on herring that was generally positive (i.e., covariation) but the effect became negative after the collapse (i.e., predation or competition). Likewise a change occurred for the cod, the juvenile herring biomass that had no effect before the collapse had a negative effect after. Our results indicate that the population collapses may alter the inter‐specific interactions and response to abiotic environmental changes. While the stocks are at similar abundance levels before and after the collapses, the system is potentially different in its functioning and may require different management action.     

Wasp-waist interactions in the North Sea ecosystem

Background

In a “wasp-waist” ecosystem, an intermediate trophic level is expected to control the abundance of predators through a bottom-up interaction and the abundance of prey through a top-down interaction. Previous studies suggest that the North Sea is mainly governed by bottom-up interactions driven by climate perturbations. However, few studies have investigated the importance of the intermediate trophic level occupied by small pelagic fishes.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We investigated the numeric interactions among 10 species of seabirds, two species of pelagic fish and four groups of zooplankton in the North Sea using decadal-scale databases. Linear models were used to relate the time series of zooplankton and seabirds to the time series of pelagic fish. Seabirds were positively related to herring (Clupea harengus), suggesting a bottom-up interaction. Two groups of zooplankton; Calanus helgolandicus and krill were negatively related to sprat (Sprattus sprattus) and herring respectively, suggesting top-down interactions. In addition, we found positive relationships among the zooplankton groups. Para/pseudocalanus was positively related to C. helgolandicus and C. finmarchicus was positively related to krill.

Conclusion/Significance

Our results indicate that herring was important in regulating the abundance of seabirds through a bottom-up interaction and that herring and sprat were important in regulating zooplankton through top-down interactions. We suggest that the positive relationships among zooplankton groups were due to selective foraging and switching in the two clupeid fishes. Our results suggest that “wasp-waist” interactions might be more important in the North Sea than previously anticipated. Fluctuations in the populations of pelagic fish due to harvesting and depletion of their predators might accordingly have profound consequences for ecosystem dynamics through trophic cascades.     

Tendencies in the Herring Population Development of the Baltic Sea

During the 1960's a change in population structure of Baltic herring started which resulted in the dominance of spring spawners in the entire Baltic since the beginning 1970's. Autumn spawning herring is very rare in the yields of fisheries since. This development has been accompanied by a likely increase of the total stock biomass of herring in the area. Yields of herring fisheries increased remarkable up to 1984, partly as a result of increased fishing effort. Recent developments of stock biomasses point to dependencies on fluctuations of growth rates. Growth is influenced by several environmental factors but is very likely especially dependent on abundance of food and on temperature. Eutrophication of the Baltic Sea increased perhaps the abundance of food for the planktonfeeding herring but it may have been contributing to the depletion of autumn spawning herring via the declining oxygen content of bottom water layers during the past 20 years.     

Spatial and Temporal Variability in the Abundance and Size Structure of Larvae of the White Sea Herring (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Clupea pallasii marisalbi</Emphasis>) in Onega and Kandalaksha Bays of the White Sea

According to the data of ichthyological surveys conducted in Onega and Kandalaksha bays of the White Sea in June 2015, the abundance and pattern of spatial distribution of larvae of the White Sea herring Clupea pallasii marisalbi are comparable with those of 2012. Aggregations of herring larvae detected at a distance of 12?14 km from the coast in the apex part of Kandalaksha Bay are probably the result of their mass drift caused by fresh floodwater discharge. In coastal waters of the bays adjacent to the littoral part, the abundance of herring larvae above the depths less than 5 m varies considerably due to their drift under effect of alongshore and/or tidal currents. The White Sea herring larvae reach high abundance only in the inlets (Chupa, Knyazhaya, Belaya, and Maikova inlets) with the river runoff; their length increases with the distance from spawning grounds. In different years, the main bulk of herring larvae in Knyazhaya Inlet is concentrated at depths about 12–15 m at 6?8°C, or moved to the upper 5-m quasi-homogeneous layer when the water temperature at the depth was 0?1°C.     

Evidence for Two Highly Differentiated Herring Groups at Goose Bank in the Barents Sea and the Genetic Relationship to Pacific Herring, Clupea pallasi

Genetic studies on Atlantic herring, Clupea harengus, have generally revealed a low level of genetic variation over large geographic areas. Genetically distinct herring populations in some of the Norwegian fjords are exceptions, and juvenile herring from the large oceanic herring, Norwegian Spring Spawners (NSS), are often found in mixture with local fjord populations as well as widely distributed in the Barents Sea. Research surveys in the eastern Barents Sea (Goose Bank) in 1993, 1994 and 2001 included collection of herring samples for allozyme analyses. As expected the results identified juveniles from NSS stock, but an additional unique group of herring (low vertebrae number), being almost fixed for alternative alleles at several allozyme loci, was detected. In some cases, the two groups of herring were taken in the same trawl catches as documented by highly significant departure from Hardy—Weinberg expectation with large excess of homozygotes providing evidence for population mixing. Large genetic differences (Nei's genetic distance = 1.53; F_ST = 0.754) were detected in pairwise comparisons based on five allozyme loci. The two herring groups were also compared with reference samples of Pacific herring, Clupea pallasi, including one sample from Japan Sea and three Alaskan samples. UPGMA dendrogram based on five allozyme loci revealed a close genetic relationship between the low vertebrae herring in the Barents Sea and the group of samples of Pacific herring. Although significant different in allele frequencies, one of the herring samples clustered together with the reference sample from Bering Sea with genetic distance of 0.008 and F_ST value of 0.032. The close genetic relationship found in this paper, suggest a re-evaluation of the taxonomic status of the Barents Sea herring populations investigated.     

Genetic diversity and structure of two hybridizing anadromous fishes (Alosa pseudoharengus,Alosa aestivalis) across the northern portion of their ranges

Alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) and blueback herring (Alosa aestivalis), also known collectively as either river herring or gaspereau, are anadromous clupeid fishes that display spatiotemporal overlap during riverine spawning migrations. Both species have experienced severe population declines within portions of their ranges. Evidence that they home to their natal rivers to spawn suggests the likelihood of ecologically significant population structure, yet this hypothesis has not been rigorously tested. We examined genetic diversity, differentiation and population structure in 34 alewife and four blueback herring populations spanning a 2,500 km portion of their northern range, using 14 microsatellite loci. Significant differentiation was detected among most rivers, and eight genetically defined alewife population clusters that largely corresponded to hydrographic regions were identified. Similar population structure was seen for blueback herring. Genetic isolation by distance was not significant among alewife populations in regions that have been historically influenced by dams, and/or stock transfers, but was highly significant in two regions that have not been subject to these influences. Genetic differentiation of alewife populations was strongest in the Bay of Fundy. Bottleneck tests revealed evidence of demographic bottlenecks in all of the alewife populations. Lastly, our results indicated that hybridization between alewife and blueback herring is common.     

Predicting reproductive success from hormone concentrations in the common tern (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Sterna hirundo</Emphasis>) while considering food abundance

In birds, reproductive success is mainly a function of skill or environmental conditions, but it can also be linked to hormone concentrations due to their effect on behavior and individual decisions made during reproduction. For example, a high prolactin concentration is required to express parental behaviors such as incubation or guarding and feeding the young. Corticosterone level, on the other hand, is related to energy allocation or stress and foraging or provisioning effort. In this study, we measured individual baseline prolactin and corticosterone between 2006 and 2012 in breeding common terns (Sterna hirundo) using blood-sucking bugs. Reproductive parameters as well as prey abundance on a local and a wider scale were also determined during this period. Baseline prolactin and corticosterone varied significantly between years, as did breeding success. At the individual level, prolactin was positively and corticosterone was negatively linked to herring and sprat abundance. At the population level, we also found a negative link between corticosterone and prey abundance, probably reflecting overall foraging conditions. High prolactin during incubation was mainly predictive of increased hatching success, potentially by supporting more constant incubation and nest-guarding behavior. It was also positively linked to a lesser extent with fledging success, which could indicate a high feeding rate of young. Corticosterone concentration was positively related to high breeding success, which may be due to increased foraging activity and feeding of young. In general, our study shows that baseline prolactin and corticosterone levels during incubation can predict reproductive success, despite the presence of an interval between sampling and hatching or fledging of young.     

Temporal Dynamics of Top Predators Interactions in the Barents Sea

The Barents Sea system is often depicted as a simple food web in terms of number of dominant feeding links. The most conspicuous feeding link is between the Northeast Arctic cod Gadus morhua, the world''s largest cod stock which is presently at a historical high level, and capelin Mallotus villosus. The system also holds diverse seabird and marine mammal communities. Previous diet studies may suggest that these top predators (cod, bird and sea mammals) compete for food particularly with respect to pelagic fish such as capelin and juvenile herring (Clupea harengus), and krill. In this paper we explored the diet of some Barents Sea top predators (cod, Black-legged kittiwake Rissa tridactyla, Common guillemot Uria aalge, and Minke whale Balaenoptera acutorostrata). We developed a GAM modelling approach to analyse the temporal variation diet composition within and between predators, to explore intra- and inter-specific interactions. The GAM models demonstrated that the seabird diet is temperature dependent while the diet of Minke whale and cod is prey dependent; Minke whale and cod diets depend on the abundance of herring and capelin, respectively. There was significant diet overlap between cod and Minke whale, and between kittiwake and guillemot. In general, the diet overlap between predators increased with changes in herring and krill abundances. The diet overlap models developed in this study may help to identify inter-specific interactions and their dynamics that potentially affect the stocks targeted by fisheries.     

The effects of thin layers on the vertical distribution of larval Pacific herring, Clupea pallasi

Temporal and spatial heterogeneity of resources is likely to have dramatic effects on the behaviors of zooplankton and ichthyoplankton, which in turn are likely to have strong effects on ecological dynamics such as predation, growth, and mating. The objective of this study was to determine whether vertically thin layers of extreme prey concentration affect the vertical distribution of larval Pacific herring (Clupea pallasi). We employed 2-m tall experimental tanks equipped with video cameras that scanned the vertical extent of the tanks to investigate the effects of thin layers on the vertical distribution of 5- and 10-day-old herring larvae. Three treatments were established: (1) a thin layer of prey (rotifers, Brachionus plicatilis) through density (salinity) stratification, (2) homogeneous vertical distribution of both prey and density, and (3) density (salinity) stratification, but with a homogeneous distribution of prey. We found that in all treatments the majority of larval herring were at the surface, near the light, despite the absence of a peak in rotifer abundance at this depth in some instances. However, there were also clear effects of the thin layers—secondary subsurface peaks in herring abundance occurred at the mid-depths in the stratified tanks, in and around the thin layers. In addition, our results provide some evidence that thin layers specifically, rather than prey patches generally, influence the vertical distribution of larval herring, i.e., larvae may use the physical properties of thin layers to locate and distribute themselves, instead of reacting solely to the prey patches. Thus thin layers can affect directly the vertical distribution of larval herring, and perhaps indirectly their horizontal distribution, as herring larvae live in environments (e.g., estuaries) where advective transport is also often vertically heterogeneous.     

Population structure and variability of Pacific herring (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Clupea pallasii</Emphasis>) in the White Sea,Barents and Kara Seas revealed by microsatellite DNA analyses

Pacific herring, Clupea pallasii, have recently colonised the northeast Atlantic and Arctic Oceans in the early Holocene. In a relatively short evolutionary time, the herring formed a community with a complex population structure. Previous genetic studies based on morphological, allozyme and mitochondrial DNA data have supported the existence of two herring subspecies from the White Sea and eastern Barents and Kara Seas (C. p. marisalbi and C. p. suworowi, respectively). However, the population structure of the White Sea herring has long been debated and remains controversial. The analyses of morphological and allozyme data have previously identified local spawning groups of herring in the White Sea, whereas mtDNA markers have not revealed any differentiation. We conducted one of the first studies of microsatellite variation for the purpose of investigating the genetic structure and relationship of Pacific herring among ten localities in the White Sea, the Barents Sea and the Kara Sea. Using classical genetic variance-based methods (hierarchical AMOVA, overall and pairwise F _ST comparisons), as well as the Bayesian clustering, we infer considerable genetic diversity and population structure in herring at ten microsatellite loci. Genetic differentiation was the most pronounced between the White Sea (C. p. marisalbi) versus the Barents and Kara seas (Chesha–Pechora herring, C. p. suworowi). While microsatellite variation in all C. pallasii was considerable, genetic diversity was significantly lower in C. p. suworowi, than in C. p. marisalbi. Also, tests of genetic differentiation were indicating significant differentiation within the White Sea herring between sympatric summer- and spring-spawning groups, in comparison with genetic homogeneity of the Chesha–Pechora herring.     

Feeding Ecology of Northeast Atlantic Mackerel,Norwegian Spring-Spawning Herring and Blue Whiting in the Norwegian Sea

The Norwegian spring-spawning (NSS) herring (Clupea harengus), blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) and Northeast Atlantic (NEA) mackerel (Scomber scombrus) are extremely abundant pelagic planktivores that feed in the Norwegian Sea (NS) during spring and summer. This study investigated the feeding ecology and diet composition of these commercially important fish stocks on the basis of biological data, including an extensive set of stomach samples in combination with hydrographical data, zooplankton samples and acoustic abundance data from 12 stock monitoring surveys carried out in 2005–2010. Mackerel were absent during the spring, but had generally high feeding overlap with herring in the summer, with a diet mainly based on calanoid copepods, especially Calanus finmarchicus, as well as a similar diet width. Stomach fullness in herring diminished from spring to summer and feeding incidence was lower than that of mackerel in summer. However, stomach fullness did not differ between the two species, indicating that herring maintain an equally efficient pattern of feeding as mackerel in summer, but on a diet that is less dominated by copepods and is more reliant on larger prey. Blue whiting tended to have a low dietary overlap with mackerel and herring, with larger prey such as euphausiids and amphipods dominating, and stomach fullness and feeding incidence increasing with length. For all the species, feeding incidence increased with decreasing temperature, and for mackerel so did stomach fullness, indicating that feeding activity is highest in areas associated with colder water masses. Significant annual effects on diet composition and feeding-related variables suggested that the three species are able to adapt to different food and environmental conditions. These annual effects are likely to have an important impact on the predation pressure on different plankton groups and the carrying capacity of individual systems, and emphasise the importance of regular monitoring of pelagic fish diets.     

Trophic interactions under climate fluctuations: the Atlantic puffin as an example

Co-occurrence in food requirements of offspring and food availability is a key factor determining breeding success. Prey availability is typically dependent on environmental conditions that are different from those influencing the predator''s decision regarding whether or not to initiate breeding, and is not always optimal at the peak of reproduction requirements. We investigated this relationship to understand better what determines the fledging success of the Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica). Colony data from Røst (northern Norway) covering a period of 27 years were analysed with parallel data on sea temperature and the size and abundance of the puffins'' main prey (the Norwegian spring-spawning herring, Clupea harengus). By fitting statistical models to the fledging success, we found that one effect of climate on this population of Atlantic puffins is indirect and mediated by sea temperature affecting the availability of first-year herring. The best model also demonstrates that the breeding success of the Røst puffins may be quantitatively predicted from the size of first-year herring and sea temperature.     

The effect of prey quality and ice conditions on the nutritional status of Baltic gray seals of different age groups

We analyzed a long-term data set of the body condition of Baltic gray seals (Halichoerus grypus) over time and investigated how average subcutaneous blubber thickness of different age groups of seals corresponds to environmental factors. Blubber thickness of pups declined until 2010. The decreasing weight of 5–6-year-old herring (Clupea harengus), the main prey fish for Baltic gray seals, explained well the decline. In the Gulf of Finland, the blubber thickness of pups declined also in recent years (2011–2015) with declining number of days with permanent ice cover. In other regions, the blubber thickness of pups increased during recent years with increasing weight of herring. The blubber thickness of sub-adults in Baltic Proper and that of hunted adult females in the Bothnian Bay also increased during recent years, and the weight of age 6+ or 7-year-old herring best explained the increase. The blubber thickness of all age groups of seals was thinnest in the Bothnian Bay where also herring weight was lowest. There was a negative correlation between blubber thickness of seals and herring catch size (an index of herring abundance) suggesting that herring quality, not the quantity, is important for the nutritional status of Baltic gray seals. Nutritional status of gray seals may thus reveal changes in the marine food web which affect herring quality. Marine food web, in turn, may be affected, e.g., by climate change. The warming climate also has an impact on ice cover and thus body condition of seal pups.     

Is the mass emergence of Themisto libellula in the northern Bering Sea an invasion or a bloom?

The mass occurrence of the large hyperiid Themisto libellula was recorded in both the western and the eastern Bering Sea within 2007–2011. Those were the years of a relatively long 6-year period of cold, which was caused mainly by the inflow of cold waters from the north; this is confirmed by the distribution of bottom and surface temperatures and also by the ice-cover values. This hyperiid became dominant in the diet of salmon, walleye pollock, herring, and several other nekton fish species. T. libellula periodically spreads southward with cold northern waters, finding favorable conditions in “new” areas. Being a rapidly growing species with a short life cycle, within 1 or 2 years it reaches a high abundance, which then gradually declines and remains at a mean or low level, as usually occurs with species that were introduced into a new habitat. After the environmental conditions deteriorate, as a “warm” period arrives with changes in the general circulation and a growing inflow of warmed Pacific waters, the southern boundary of the species range moves back far northward and it completely disappears in the areas where it prevailed in the plankton and was a main forage item in the diet of many fish species. Taking into account the durations of warm and cold periods from 1980 until 2010, an event like this in the Bering Sea can be expected within 1 or 2 years. In the eastern Bering Sea, the abundance and dominance of a number of zooplankton species may vary simultaneously. This effect is more pronounced in T. libellula and for this reason the species is considered as a biological indicator of the described climatic changes in the Bering Sea.     

Otolith variation in Pacific herring (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Clupea pallasii</Emphasis>) reflects mitogenomic variation rather than the subspecies classification

Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) is divided into three subspecies: two in northeast Europe and one in the north Pacific Ocean. Genetic studies have indicated that the populations in northeast Europe have derived from the northwest Pacific herring recently, or during the last 10–15 kyr, and that they are distinct from the population in the northeast Pacific. In addition, hybridization between the Pacific herring and the Atlantic herring has been documented. Otolith variation has been considered to be largely affected by environmental variation, but here we evaluate whether the genetic differentiation is reflected in otolith shape differences. A clear difference in otolith shape was observed between the genetically differentiated herring species Clupea harengus from the Atlantic and C. pallasii. The otolith shape of C. p. suworowi in the Barents Sea was different from the shape of C. pallasii in northern Norway and C. p. pallasii from the Pacific. Populations of C. p. pallasii, sampled east and west of the Alaska Peninsula, which belong to two genetically different clades of the C. p. pallasii in the Pacific Ocean, show a clear difference in otolith shape. C. p. suworowi and the local C. pallasii peripheral population in Balsfjord in northern Norway are more similar to the northwest Pacific herring (C. p. pallasii) than to the northeast Pacific herring (C. p. pallasii), both genetically and in otolith shape. The Balsfjord population, known to be influenced by introgression of mtDNA from the Atlantic herring, does not show any sign of admixture in otolith shape between the two species. A revised classification, considering the observed genetic and morphological evidence, should rather group the northwest Pacific herring in the Bering Sea together with the European populations of C. pallasii than with the northeast Pacific herring in the Gulf of Alaska.     

Spatially structured interactions between a migratory pelagic predator, the Norwegian spring-spawning herring Clupea harengus L., and its zooplankton prey

Spring-spawning herring Clupea harengus was patchily distributed over large parts of the Norwegian Sea in May 1995–2005, during the early phase of the annual feeding migration. Overall, herring tended to be found in areas with intermediate biomasses of zooplankton prey, intermediate water temperatures and relatively high salinities. Herring had more food in their stomachs in areas of relatively low water temperature and high herring abundance. Hydrographical conditions revealed that herring was feeding mainly within Atlantic water masses, and more intensely in western and northern regions of the Norwegian Sea. Zooplankton biomass was patchily distributed, and was generally higher towards the western parts of the Norwegian Sea. Here, zooplankton biomass in year _{i +1} was also negatively associated with herring spawning stock biomass in year _i , while there was no evidence for such an association in the eastern region; indicating that herring may have a geographically structured 'top–down' effect on the recruitment of its zooplankton prey. The fact that herring was not typically associated with the areas containing the greatest zooplankton biomasses may reflect that the fish had not yet reached the most profitable feeding grounds or alternatively that herring was depleting zooplankton biomass.     

The influence of predation by herring gullsLarus argentatus and oystercatchersHaematopus ostralegus on a newly established musselMytilus edulis bed in autumn and winter

Predation by herring gullsLarus argentatus and oystercatchersHaematopus ostralegus was evaluated on a newly established musselMytilus edulis bed on tidal flats of the German Wadden Sea. The mussel bed covered an area of 2 ha and showed a decrease in biomass of 40% in the most densely covered parts from August to January. Synchronously, the extent of the mussel bed was reduced, resulting in a decrease of average biomass of 98% over the whole mussel bed. From the beginning of August 1994 to mid January 1995, the average size of mussels increased from 10.7 to 20.3 mm. The P/B-ratio was 0.68 in August and 0.18 between September and November. Herring gulls and oystercatchers were the most important mussel predators. On average, 266 herring gulls and 63 oystercatchers were present on the mussel bed during one low tide; 34% of the herring gulls and 78% of the oystercatchers were observed to be feeding. Herring gulls fed at a rate of 4.2 mussels per minute and oystercatchers at a rate of 1.3 mussels per minute. While herring gulls took the most common mussel sizes (mean: 20 mm), oystercatchers searched for the largest mussels available (mean: 25 mm). Herring gulls consumed 13 mussels/m² (0.3g AFDW) during one day and oystercatchers 1.7 mussels/m² (0.1 g AFDW). Predation by birds was compensated by 33% of the production. The proportion removed by bird predation amounted to 10% of abundance and to 16% of biomass (including production). Oystercatchers were responsible for 1% of the reduction in abundance and for 3% of biomass. Removal was highest in the most common size classes of mussels, mainly caused by herring gulls. However, the highest proportion of mussels was eaten in the largest size classes, mainly by oystercatchers. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** A03B6035 00004     

Recruitment prediction for Pacific herring (Clupea pallasi) on the west coast of Vancouver Island, Canada

The accurate prediction of recruitment to the fishery is a very important tool within the management structure of any fish stock being exploited. In the case of the Pacific herring, Clupea pallasi, fishery in Canada, a forecast of the abundance of each herring stock is particularly important for formulating an annual catch quota. The sustainable management of the fishery and the resource is based in part on accurate recruitment forecasting because Pacific herring are short-lived and so the recruitment contributes a significant part of the total spawning run targeted by the fishery each year. Several factors are believed be important in determining the success of recruitment besides spawners biomass. Since herrings are “r” strategists, conditions related to the egg, the planktonic, or even the juvenile stage might determine the future level of recruitment. Recently a formula that defines conditions for a semi-quantitative level of recruitment forecast was elaborated using genetic algorithms and current study attempts to improve on this model. Using salinity in two quarterly periods during the planktonic and pre-recruit stages, temperature and spawning biomass for the west coast of Vancouver Island stock, classification rules that define recruitment in 3 different levels (low, medium and high) were developed with a genetic algorithm, setting low and high boundaries for each condition. A 75% success in classifying recruitment was obtained. The model was shown to be particularly effective at predicting when the recruitment would be low, which could be important from the perspective of the Precautionary Approach and the sustainable management of this stock.