Forecasting shifts in habitat suitability of three marine predators suggests a rapid decline in inter‐specific overlap under future climate change

Understanding how environmental and climate change can alter habitat overlap of marine predators has great value for the management and conservation of marine ecosystems. Here, we estimated spatiotemporal changes in habitat suitability and inter‐specific overlap among three marine predators: Baltic gray seals (Halichoerus grypus), harbor seals (Phoca vitulina), and harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) under contemporary and future conditions. Location data (>200 tagged individuals) were collected in the southwestern region of the Baltic Sea; one of the fastest‐warming semi‐enclosed seas in the world. We used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm to estimate changes in total area size and overlap of species‐specific habitat suitability between 1997–2020 and 2091–2100. Predictor variables included environmental and climate‐sensitive oceanographic conditions in the area. Sea‐level rise, sea surface temperature, and salinity data were taken from representative concentration pathways [RCPs] scenarios 6.0 and 8.5 to forecast potential climate change effects. Model output suggested that habitat suitability of Baltic gray seals will decline over space and time, driven by changes in sea surface salinity and a loss of currently available haulout sites following sea‐level rise in the future. A similar, although weaker, effect was observed for harbor seals, while suitability of habitat for harbor porpoises was predicted to increase slightly over space and time. Inter‐specific overlap in highly suitable habitats was also predicted to increase slightly under RCP scenario 6.0 when compared to contemporary conditions, but to disappear under RCP scenario 8.5. Our study suggests that marine predators in the southwestern Baltic Sea may respond differently to future climatic conditions, leading to divergent shifts in habitat suitability that are likely to decrease inter‐specific overlap over time and space. We conclude that climate change can lead to a marked redistribution of area use by marine predators in the region, which may influence local food‐web dynamics and ecosystem functioning.     

An environmental gradient dominates ecological and genetic differentiation of marine invertebrates between the North and Baltic Sea

Environmental gradients have emerged as important barriers to structuring populations and species distributions. We set out to test whether the strong salinity gradient from the marine North Sea to the brackish Baltic Sea in northern Europe represents an ecological and genetic break, and to identify life history traits that correlate with the strength of this break. We accumulated mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit 1 sequence data, and data on the distribution, salinity tolerance, and life history for 28 species belonging to the Cnidaria, Crustacea, Echinodermata, Mollusca, Polychaeta, and Gastrotricha. We included seven non‐native species covering a broad range of times since introduction, in order to gain insight into the pace of adaptation and differentiation. We calculated measures of genetic diversity and differentiation across the environmental gradient, coalescent times, and migration rates between North and Baltic Sea populations, and analyzed correlations between genetic and life history data. The majority of investigated species is either genetically differentiated and/or adapted to the lower salinity conditions of the Baltic Sea. Species exhibiting population structure have a range of patterns of genetic diversity in comparison with the North Sea, from lower in the Baltic Sea to higher in the Baltic Sea, or equally diverse in North and Baltic Sea. Two of the non‐native species showed signs of genetic differentiation, their times since introduction to the Baltic Sea being about 80 and >700 years, respectively. Our results indicate that the transition from North Sea to Baltic Sea represents a genetic and ecological break: The diversity of genetic patterns points toward independent trajectories in the Baltic compared with the North Sea, and ecological differences with regard to salinity tolerance are common. The North Sea–Baltic Sea region provides a unique setting to study evolutionary adaptation during colonization processes at different stages by jointly considering native and non‐native species.     

Long-Term Changes in Nutrients and Mussel Stocks Are Related to Numbers of Breeding Eiders Somateria mollissima at a Large Baltic Colony

Background

The Baltic/Wadden Sea eider Somateria mollissima flyway population is decreasing, and this trend is also reflected in the large eider colony at Christiansø situated in the Baltic Sea. This colony showed a 15-fold increase from 1925 until the mid-1990''s, followed by a rapid decline in recent years, although the causes of this trend remain unknown. Most birds from the colony winter in the Wadden Sea, from which environmental data and information on the size of the main diet, the mussel Mytilus edulis stock exists. We hypothesised that changes in nutrients and water temperature in the Wadden Sea had an effect on the ecosystem affecting the size of mussel stocks, the principal food item for eiders, thereby influencing the number of breeding eider in the Christiansø colony.

Methodology/Principal Finding

A positive relationship between the amount of fertilizer used by farmers and the concentration of phosphorus in the Wadden Sea (with a time lag of one year) allowed analysis of the predictions concerning effects of nutrients for the period 1925–2010. There was (1) increasing amounts of fertilizer used in agriculture and this increased the amount of nutrients in the marine environment thereby increasing the mussel stocks in the Wadden Sea. (2) The number of eiders at Christiansø increased when the amount of fertilizer increased. Finally (3) the number of eiders in the colony at Christiansø increased with the amount of mussel stocks in the Wadden Sea.

Conclusions/Significance

The trend in the number of eiders at Christiansø is representative for the entire flyway population, and since nutrient reduction in the marine environment occurs in most parts of Northwest Europe, we hypothesize that this environmental candidate parameter is involved in the overall regulation of the Baltic/Wadden Sea eider population during recent decades.     

Response in the water quality of the Salton Sea,California, to changes in phosphorus loading: an empirical modeling approach

Salton Sea, California, like many other lakes, has become eutrophic because of excessive nutrient loading, primarily phosphorus (P). A Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) is being prepared for P to reduce the input of P to the Sea. In order to better understand how P-load reductions should affect the average annual water quality of this terminal saline lake, three different eutrophication programs (BATHTUB, WiLMS, and the Seepage Lake Model) were applied. After verifying that specific empirical models within these programs were applicable to this saline lake, each model was calibrated using water-quality and nutrient-loading data for 1999 and then used to simulate the effects of specific P-load reductions. Model simulations indicate that a 50% decrease in external P loading would decrease near-surface total phosphorus concentrations (TP) by 25–50%. Application of other empirical models demonstrated that this decrease in loading should decrease near-surface chlorophyll a concentrations (Chl a) by 17–63% and increase Secchi depths (SD) by 38–97%. The wide range in estimated responses in Chl a and SD were primarily caused by uncertainty in how non-algal turbidity would respond to P-load reductions. If only the models most applicable to the Salton Sea are considered, a 70–90% P-load reduction is required for the Sea to be classified as moderately eutrophic (trophic state index of 55). These models simulate steady-state conditions in the Sea; therefore, it is difficult to ascertain how long it would take for the simulated changes to occur after load reductions. Guest editor: S. H. Hurlbert The Salton Sea Centennial Symposium. Proceedings of a Symposium Celebrating a Century of Symbiosis Among Agriculture, Wildlife and People, 1905–2005, held in San Diego, California, USA, March 2005.     

Estimating the abundance of the critically endangered Baltic Proper harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) population using passive acoustic monitoring

Knowing the abundance of a population is a crucial component to assess its conservation status and develop effective conservation plans. For most cetaceans, abundance estimation is difficult given their cryptic and mobile nature, especially when the population is small and has a transnational distribution. In the Baltic Sea, the number of harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) has collapsed since the mid‐20th century and the Baltic Proper harbour porpoise is listed as Critically Endangered by the IUCN and HELCOM; however, its abundance remains unknown. Here, one of the largest ever passive acoustic monitoring studies was carried out by eight Baltic Sea nations to estimate the abundance of the Baltic Proper harbour porpoise for the first time. By logging porpoise echolocation signals at 298 stations during May 2011–April 2013, calibrating the loggers’ spatial detection performance at sea, and measuring the click rate of tagged individuals, we estimated an abundance of 71–1105 individuals (95% CI, point estimate 491) during May–October within the population''s proposed management border. The small abundance estimate strongly supports that the Baltic Proper harbour porpoise is facing an extremely high risk of extinction, and highlights the need for immediate and efficient conservation actions through international cooperation. It also provides a starting point in monitoring the trend of the population abundance to evaluate the effectiveness of management measures and determine its interactions with the larger neighboring Belt Sea population. Further, we offer evidence that design‐based passive acoustic monitoring can generate reliable estimates of the abundance of rare and cryptic animal populations across large spatial scales.     

Diatom Cell Size,Coloniality and Motility: Trade-Offs between Temperature,Salinity and Nutrient Supply with Climate Change

Reduction in body size has been proposed as a universal response of organisms, both to warming and to decreased salinity. However, it is still controversial if size reduction is caused by temperature or salinity on their own, or if other factors interfere as well. We used natural benthic diatom communities to explore how “body size” (cells and colonies) and motility change along temperature (2–26°C) and salinity (0.5–7.8) gradients in the brackish Baltic Sea. Fourth-corner analysis confirmed that small cell and colony sizes were associated with high temperature in summer. Average community cell volume decreased linearly with 2.2% per °C. However, cells were larger with artificial warming when nutrient concentrations were high in the cold season. Average community cell volume increased by 5.2% per °C of artificial warming from 0 to 8.5°C and simultaneously there was a selection for motility, which probably helped to optimize growth rates by trade-offs between nutrient supply and irradiation. Along the Baltic Sea salinity gradient cell size decreased with decreasing salinity, apparently mediated by nutrient stoichiometry. Altogether, our results suggest that climate change in this century may polarize seasonality by creating two new niches, with elevated temperature at high nutrient concentrations in the cold season (increasing cell size) and elevated temperature at low nutrient concentrations in the warm season (decreasing cell size). Higher temperature in summer and lower salinity by increased land-runoff are expected to decrease the average cell size of primary producers, which is likely to affect the transfer of energy to higher trophic levels.     

Localisation of Nursery Areas Based on Comparative Analyses of the Horizontal and Vertical Distribution Patterns of Juvenile Baltic Cod (Gadus morhua)

Knowledge of the spatial distribution of juvenile cod is essential for obtaining precise recruitment data to conduct sustainable management of the eastern and western Baltic cod stocks. In this study, the horizontal and vertical distribution and density patterns of settled juvenile 0- and 1-group Baltic cod are determined, and their nursery areas are localised according to the environmental factors affecting them. Comparative statistical analyses of biological, hydrographic and hydroacoustic data are carried out based on standard ICES demersal trawl surveys and special integrated trawl and acoustic research surveys. Horizontal distribution maps for the 2001–2010 cohorts of juvenile cod are further generated by applying a statistical log-Gaussian Cox process model to the standard trawl survey data. The analyses indicate size-dependent horizontal and distinct vertical and diurnal distribution patterns related to the seabed topography, water layer depth, and the presence of hydrographic frontal zones (pycnoclines) as well as intraspecific patterns in relation to the presence of adult cod. The extent of the nursery areas also depends on the cod year class strength. Juvenile cod (≥3 cm) are present in all areas of the central Baltic Sea (CBS), showing broad dispersal. However, their highest density in the Baltic Basins is found at localities with a 40–70 m bottom depth in waters with oxygen concentrations above 2 ml O₂.l⁻¹ and temperatures above 5°C. The smallest juveniles are also found in deep sea localities down to a 100 m depth and at oxygen concentrations between 2–4 ml O₂.l⁻¹. The vertical, diurnally stratified and repeated trawling and hydroacoustic target strength-depth distributions obtained from the special surveys show juvenile cod concentrations in frontal zone water layers (pycnocline). However, the analyses indicate that in the CBS, juvenile cod of all sizes do not appear to aggregate in dense schooling patterns, which differs from what has been reported from the North Sea.     

A Kinetic and Factorial Approach to Study the Effects of Temperature and Salinity on Growth and Toxin Production by the Dinoflagellate Alexandrium ostenfeldii from the Baltic Sea

Alexandrium ostenfeldii is present in a wide variety of environments in coastal areas worldwide and is the only dinoflagellate known species that produces paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) toxins and two types of cyclic imines, spirolides (SPXs) and gymnodimines (GYMs). The increasing frequency of A. ostenfeldii blooms in the Baltic Sea has been attributed to the warming water in this region. To learn more about the optimal environmental conditions favoring the proliferation of A. ostenfeldii and its complex toxicity, the effects of temperature and salinity on the kinetics of both the growth and the net toxin production of this species were examined using a factorial design and a response-surface analysis (RSA). The results showed that the growth of Baltic A. ostenfeldii occurs over a wide range of temperatures and salinities (12.5–25.5°C and 5–21, respectively), with optimal growth conditions achieved at a temperature of 25.5°C and a salinity of 11.2. Together with the finding that a salinity > 21 was the only growth-limiting factor detected for this strain, this study provides important insights into the autecology and population distribution of this species in the Baltic Sea. The presence of PSP toxins, including gonyautoxin (GTX)-3, GTX-2, and saxitoxin (STX), and GYMs (GYM-A and GYM-B/-C analogues) was detected under all temperature and salinity conditions tested and in the majority of the cases was concomitant with both the exponential growth and stationary phases of the dinoflagellate’s growth cycle. Toxin concentrations were maximal at temperatures and salinities of 20.9°C and 17 for the GYM-A analogue and > 19°C and 15 for PSP toxins, respectively. The ecological implications of the optimal conditions for growth and toxin production of A. ostenfeldii in the Baltic Sea are discussed.     

COASTAL DIATOM–ENVIRONMENT RELATIONSHIPS FROM THE GULF OF FINLAND,BALTIC SEA1

Eutrophication of the Baltic Sea has become a serious concern in recent decades. To provide a potential means for quality assessments of coastal waters in this area, we collected a data set of 49 embayments in the Gulf of Finland, and explored the relationship between surface sediment diatom assemblages and 15 environmental variables, with special emphasis on nutrients. Total dissolved nitrogen, total phosphorus, depth, and salinity all accounted for significant and independent fractions of variation in the diatom data and explained 34% of the total variation. There were clear changes in diatom assemblage structures along the nutrient gradients. Although these changes were gradual, we could identify a number of taxa that were more abundant in a particular nutrient environment. These taxa could be used as potential indicators of the quality of coastal waters in the Baltic Sea. Diatom assemblages that were least affected by nutrient enrichment included a variety of benthic species and a relatively high species richness. Small planktonic taxa such as Cyclotella atomus Hustedt, Cyclotella meneghiniana Kützing and Thalassiosira pseudonana Hasle and Heimdal were good indicators of highly elevated nutrient concentrations (>600 lg·L^?1 total dissolved nitrogen and 60 lg·L^?1 total phosphorus) together with low species richness. The first appearance of these small planktonic taxa in regular monitoring could be used as an early warning sign for deteriorating water quality. Diatoms could be applied to water quality classification and monitoring purposes in the coastal waters of the Baltic Sea area using techniques such as weighted‐averaging regression and calibration.     

Phosphorus chemistry and bacterial community composition interact in brackish sediments receiving agricultural discharges

Background

External nutrient discharges have caused eutrophication in many estuaries and coastal seas such as the Baltic Sea. The sedimented nutrients can affect bacterial communities which, in turn, are widely believed to contribute to release of nutrients such as phosphorus from the sediment.

Methods

We investigated relationships between bacterial communities and chemical forms of phosphorus as well as elements involved in its cycling in brackish sediments using up-to-date multivariate statistical methods. Bacterial community composition was determined by terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism and cloning of the 16S rRNA gene.

Results and Conclusions

The bacterial community composition differed along gradients of nutrients, especially of different phosphorus forms, from the estuary receiving agricultural phosphorus loading to the open sea. This suggests that the chemical composition of sediment phosphorus, which has been affected by riverine phosphorus loading, influenced on bacterial communities. Chemical and spatial parameters explained 25% and 11% of the variation in bacterial communities. Deltaproteobacteria, presumptively sulphate and sulphur/iron reducing, were strongly associated to chemical parameters, also when spatial autocorrelation was taken into account. Sulphate reducers correlated positively with labile organic phosphorus and total nitrogen in the open sea sediments. Sulphur/iron reducers and sulphate reducers linked to iron reduction correlated positively with aluminium- and iron-bound phosphorus, and total iron in the estuary. The sulphate and sulphur/iron reducing bacteria can thus have an important role both in the mineralization and mobilization of nutrients from sediment.

Significance

Novelty in our study is that relationships between bacterial community composition and different phosphorus forms, instead of total phosphorus, were investigated. Total phosphorus does not necessarily bring out interactions between bacteria and phosphorus chemistry since proportions of easily usable mobile (reactive) phosphorus and immobile phosphorus forms in different sediments can vary. Our study suggested possible feedbacks between different forms of phosphorus and bacterial community composition.     

The Relation between Serum Phosphorus Levels and Clinical Outcomes after Acute Myocardial Infarction

Background

Elevated serum phosphorus levels have been linked with cardiovascular disease and mortality with conflicting results, especially in the presence of normal renal function.

Methods

We studied the association between serum phosphorus levels and clinical outcomes in 1663 patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Patients were categorized into 4 groups based on serum phosphorus levels (<2.50, 2.51–3.5, 3.51–4.50 and >4.50 mg/dL). Cox proportional-hazards models were used to examine the association between serum phosphorus and clinical outcomes after adjustment for potential confounders.

Results

The mean follow up was 45 months. The lowest mortality occurred in patients with serum phosphorus between 2.5–3.5 mg/dL, with a multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio of 1.24 (95% CI 0.85–1.80), 1.35 (95% CI 1.05–1.74), and 1.75 (95% CI 1.27–2.40) in patients with serum phosphorus of <2.50, 3.51–4.50 and >4.50 mg/dL, respectively. Higher phosphorus levels were also associated with increased risk of heart failure, but not the risk of myocardial infarction or stroke. The effect of elevated phosphorus was more pronounced in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). The hazard ratio for mortality in patients with serum phosphorus >4.5 mg/dL compared to patients with serum phosphorus 2.50–3.50 mg/dL was 2.34 (95% CI 1.55–3.54) with CKD and 1.53 (95% CI 0.87–2.69) without CKD.

Conclusion

We found a graded, independent association between serum phosphorus and all-cause mortality and heart failure in patients after AMI. The risk for mortality appears to increase with serum phosphorus levels within the normal range and is more prominent in the presence of CKD.     

Phosphorus Accumulation and Sorption in Calcareous Soil under Long-Term Fertilization

Application of phosphorus (P) fertilizers to P-deficient soils can also result in P accumulation. In this study, soil P status and P uptake by apple trees were investigated in 5-, 10-, and 15-year-old orchards in the semi-arid Loess Plateau, China, and subset soils with different soil P statuses (14–90 Olsen-P mg kg⁻¹) were selected to evaluate the characteristic P adsorption. Due to the low P-use efficiency (4–6%), total soil P increased from 540 mg kg⁻¹ to 904 mg kg⁻¹, Olsen-P ranged from 3.4 mg kg⁻¹ to 30.7 mg kg⁻¹, and CaCl₂-P increased from less than 0.1 mg kg⁻¹ to 0.66 mg kg⁻¹ under continuous P fertilization. The P sorption isotherms for each apple orchard were found to fit the Langmuir isotherm model (R ² = 0.91–0.98). K (binding energy) and Q _m (P sorption maximum) decreased, whereas DPS (degree of phosphorus sorption) increased with increasing P concentration. CaCl₂-P increased significantly with the increase of Olsen-P, especially above the change point of 46.1 mg kg⁻¹. Application of surplus P could result in P enrichment in P-deficient soil which has high P fixation capacity, thus posing a significant environmental risk.     

Modelling the Influence of Major Baltic Inflows on Near-Bottom Conditions at the Entrance of the Gulf of Finland

A coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model was implemented in order to estimate the effects of Major Baltic Inflows on the near-bottom hydrophysical and biogeochemical conditions in the northern Baltic Proper and the western Gulf of Finland during the period 1991–2009. We compared results of a realistic reference run to the results of an experimental run where Major Baltic Inflows were suppressed. Further to the expected overall decrease in bottom salinity, this modelling experiment confirms that in the absence of strong saltwater inflows the deep areas of the Baltic Proper would become more anoxic, while in the shallower areas (western Gulf of Finland) near-bottom average conditions improve. Our experiment revealed that typical estuarine circulation results in the sporadic emergence of short-lasting events of near-bottom anoxia in the western Gulf of Finland due to transport of water masses from the Baltic Proper. Extrapolating our results beyond the modelled period, we speculate that the further deepening of the halocline in the Baltic Proper is likely to prevent inflows of anoxic water to the Gulf of Finland and in the longer term would lead to improvement in near-bottom conditions in the Baltic Proper. Our results reaffirm the importance of accurate representation of salinity dynamics in coupled Baltic Sea models serving as a basis for credible hindcast and future projection simulations of biogeochemical conditions.     

Prorocentrum minimum (Dinophyceae) in the Baltic Sea: morphology, occurrence—a review

The potentially toxic dinoflagellate Prorocentrum minimum (Pavillard) Schiller has successfully established in the Baltic Sea in the last two decades. A review of the invasion history is presented as well as new data on the spatial and inter-annual variability of this species and its relation to salinity, temperature, and nutrient concentrations. A short literature review of the morphological characters of the Baltic P. minimum is also included.From 1993 to 2002, P. minimum was a regular component of the summer and autumn plankton flora of the Baltic Sea proper and the Gulf of Finland. Its abundance varied considerably inter-annually and did not show any clear trends during the period. Abundance of P. minimum was significantly higher in the nutrient-enriched Bay of Mecklenburg (German coast) and the southern Baltic proper than in the central and northern Baltic proper and the Gulf of Finland, where its abundance was mostly sparse. In coastal waters P. minimum occasionally reached densities of several million cells per litre and dominated phytoplankton biomass (>90%).Abundance of the Baltic P. minimum was generally not related to salinity or temperature. It could be a dominant species at both high and low salinity (over 15 and 4.8 PSU), and its temperature range was broad (from 2.7 to 26.4 °C). However, dense populations usually occurred from July to October at temperatures above 10 °C.Further, there appears to be a positive correlation between the success of P. minimum in the Baltic Sea and high concentrations of total phosphorus and nitrogen.This tolerant and morphologically variable dinoflagellate seems to be a morphospecies without subtaxa, which can expand its range in the Baltic Sea, especially in nutrient-rich coastal waters.     

Migrating silver eels return from the sea to the river of origin after a false start

The European eel''s singular spawning migration from European waters towards the Sargasso Sea remains elusive, including the early phase of migration at sea. During spawning migration, the movement of freshwater resident eels from river to sea has been thought to be irreversible. We report the first recorded incidents of eels returning to the river of origin after spending up to a year in the marine environment. After migrating to the Baltic Sea, 21% of the silver eels, tagged with acoustic transmitters, returned to the Narva River. Half returned 11–12 months after moving to the sea, with 15 km being the longest upstream movement. The returned eels spent up to 33 days in the river and migrated to the sea again. The fastest specimen migrated to the outlet of the Baltic Sea in 68 days after the second start—roughly 1300 km. The surprising occurrence of returning migrants has implications for sustainable management and protection of this critically endangered species.     

Distribution patterns of epilithic diatoms along climatic,spatial and physicochemical variables in the Baltic Sea

The species richness and community composition of the diatom communities were studied in the Baltic Sea, Northern Europe, to enhance knowledge about the diversity of these organisms in a brackish water ecosystem. Many organisms in the Baltic Sea have been studied extensively, but studies investigating littoral diatoms are scarce. The goal of this study was to examine the importance of climatic, spatial and water physicochemical variables as drivers of epilithic diatoms in the Gulf of Finland and the Gulf of Bothnia. The variation in species richness was best explained by pH, total phosphorus and total nitrogen. Redundancy Analysis indicated that the most important factors correlating with species composition were air temperature, silicon, total phosphorus, water temperature, salinity and pH. Variation Partitioning showed that the species composition was mostly affected by climatic and spatial variables, whereas physicochemical variables had little impact. However, the strongest factor was the combined influence of climatic, spatial and physicochemical variables. The results suggest that diatom species richness in the northern Baltic Sea is primarily regulated by local factors, while climatic and spatial variables have little impact on richness. Species composition is mostly affected by climatic and spatial variables. We conclude that understanding the distribution patterns of Baltic Sea diatoms requires the inclusion of climatic, spatial and water chemistry variables.     

Distribution Characteristics of Phosphorus in the Sediments and Overlying Water of Poyang Lake

Phosphorus (P) is a key indicator of the aquatic organism growth and eutrophication in lakes. The distribution and speciation of P and its release characteristics from sediments were investigated by analyzing sediment and water samples collected during high flow and low flow periods. Results showed that the average concentrations (ranges) of total phosphorus (TP) in the surface and deep water were 0.06 mg L^-1 (0.03–0.13 mg L^-1) and 0.15 mg L^-1 (0.06–0.33 mg L^-1), respectively, while the average concentration (range) of TP in sediments was 709.17 mg kg^-1 (544.76–932.11 mg kg^-1). The concentrations of TP and different forms of P varied spatially in the surface sediments, displaying a decreasing trend from south to north. P also varied topographically from estuarine areas to lake areas. The vertical distribution of TP and different forms of P were observed to decrease as depth increased. The P concentrations during the low flow period were higher than those during the high flow period. Inorganic phosphorus (IP) was the dominant form of P, accounting for 61%–82% of TP. The concentration of bioavailable phosphorus in sediments was relatively large, indicating a high risk of release to overlying water. The simulation experiment of P release from sediments showed that the release was relatively fast in the first 0-5 min and then decreased to a plateau after 1 hr. Approximately 84–89% of the maximum amount of P was released during the first hour.     

Nutrient Fluxes from Land to Sea: Consequences of Future Scenarios on the Oder River Basin – Lagoon – Coastal Sea System

Eutrophication management is still one of the major challenges in the Baltic Sea region. Intense transformation processes in several Baltic Sea states have led to drastic changes in e.g., landuse and thereby nutrient emissions and water quality. Several future development directions are possible. The Oder catchment – lagoon – coastal water system serves as a pilot study area, since it has a major influence on the nutrient loads into the Baltic Sea and about 90% of the catchment is located in Poland, a state with transitional economy. Different scenarios for landuse changes in the Oder catchment are developed and their consequences on nutrient emissions simulated. Next to politically induced changes of agricultural landuse in general, specific aspects such as cultivation of energy maize and increased animal stocks are considered. Nitrogen emissions are likely to increase due to agricultural landuse changes whereas phosphorus emissions will not change or even decrease according to the application of the EC‐Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive. Resulting nitrogen loads to the Oder Lagoon could increase up to 23%, phosphorus loads could decrease by 11% compared to 2005. These trends may lead to higher nitrogen availability compared to phosphorus at least in the Oder lagoon. Interannual differences in discharge also have profound effects on nutrient emissions. A good status of the Oder river basin – lagoon – coastal sea system according to EC‐Directives is not very likely to be achieved under the investigated circumstances. (© 2011 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Bacteria Contribute to Sediment Nutrient Release and Reflect Progressed Eutrophication-Driven Hypoxia in an Organic-Rich Continental Sea

In the sedimental organic matter of eutrophic continental seas, such as the largest dead zone in the world, the Baltic Sea, bacteria may directly participate in nutrient release by mineralizing organic matter or indirectly by altering the sediment’s ability to retain nutrients. Here, we present a case study of a hypoxic sea, which receives riverine nutrient loading and in which microbe-mediated vicious cycles of nutrients prevail. We showed that bacterial communities changed along the horizontal loading and vertical mineralization gradients in the Gulf of Finland of the Baltic Sea, using multivariate statistics of terminal restriction fragments and sediment chemical, spatial and other properties of the sampling sites. The change was mainly explained by concentrations of organic carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus, which showed strong positive correlation with Flavobacteria, Sphingobacteria, Alphaproteobacteria and Gammaproteobacteria. These bacteria predominated in the most organic-rich coastal surface sediments overlain by oxic bottom water, whereas sulphate-reducing bacteria, particularly the genus Desulfobacula, prevailed in the reduced organic-rich surface sediments in the open sea. They correlated positively with organic nitrogen and phosphorus, as well as manganese oxides. These relationships suggest that the bacterial groups participated in the aerobic and anaerobic degradation of organic matter and contributed to nutrient cycling. The high abundance of sulphate reducers in the surficial sediment layers reflects the persistence of eutrophication-induced hypoxia causing ecosystem-level changes in the Baltic Sea. The sulphate reducers began to decrease below depths of 20 cm, where members of the family Anaerolineaceae (phylum Chloroflexi) increased, possibly taking part in terminal mineralization processes. Our study provides valuable information on how organic loading affects sediment bacterial community compositions, which consequently may maintain active nutrient recycling. This information is needed to improve our understanding on nutrient cycling in shallow seas where the dead zones are continuously spreading worldwide.     

Association of Serum Phosphorus Variability with Coronary Artery Calcification among Hemodialysis Patients

Coronary artery calcification (CAC) is associated with increased mortality in patients on maintenance hemodialysis (MHD), but the pathogenesis of this condition is not well understood. We evaluated the relationship of CAC score (CACs) and variability in serum phosphorus in MHD patients. Seventy-seven adults on MHD at Huashan Hospital (Shanghai) were enrolled in July, 2010. CAC of all the patients were measured by computed tomography and CACs was calculated by the Agatston method at the entry of enrollment. Patients were divided into three categories according to their CACs (0∼10, 11∼400, and >400). Blood chemistry was recorded every 3 months from January 2008 to July 2010. Phosphorus variation was defined by the standard deviation (SD) or coefficient of variation (CV) and it was calculated from the past records. The ordinal multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the predictors of CAC. The mean patient age (± SD) was 61.7 years (±11.3) and 51% of patients were men. The mean CACs was 609.6 (±1062.9), the median CACs was 168.5, and 78% of patients had CACs more than 0. Multivariate analysis indicated that female gender (OR = 0.20, 95% CI = 0.07–0.55), age (OR = 2.31, 95% CI = 1.32–4.04), serum fibroblast growth factor 23 (OR = 2.25, 95% CI = 1.31–3.85), SD-phosphorus calculated from the most recent 6 measurements (OR = 2.12; 95% CI = 1.23–3.63), and CV-phosphorus calculated from the most recent 6 measurements (OR = 1.90, 95% CI = 1.16–3.11) were significantly and independently associated with CACs. These associations persisted for phosphorus variation calculated from past 7, 8, 9, 10, and 11 follow-up values. Variability of serum phosphorus may contribute significantly to CAC and keeping serum phosphorus stable may decrease coronary calcification and associated morbidity and mortality in MHD patients.