THE POWER OF THE " A" -" NOT A" METHOD

The " A" - " Not A" method is a rating method with two categories. It is often treated as a discrimination method. Unlike forced choice procedures, the Thurstonian model for this method involves a choice criterion. In statistical tests, it is treated as a comparison of two proportions. In this paper, the power for hypothesis tests involving the monadic and replicated monadic " A" - " Not A" method is discussed. The power functions and the sample sizes needed for 80% power are given based on Thurstone's δ. Designs with equal and unequal allocations for A and A (Not A) samples are considered. The power of the method is also compared with that of four forced choice methods under the assumption that the perceptual variance is identical among methods. The comparison shows that, in general, the power for the five methods ranks from high to low: the 3-AFC, 2-AFC, " A" - " Not A", triangular and duo-trio. The comparison also shows that, based on the same number of panelists and/or the same sample size for the A and A⁻ samples for the methods, if the panelists are not too discrepant and the choice criterion in the " A" - " Not A" method is not too strict or too lax, the power of the " A" - " Not A" method is very close to that of the 2-AFC method.     

MOULT IN THE SHAG PHALACROCORAX ARISTOTELIS, AND THE ONTOGENY OF THE "STAFFELMAUSER"

There are three main types of plumage in the Shag, the juvenal which is brown, the post-juvenal which is dark brown and the nuptial which is black-green. The replacement of these plumages and the ontogeny of the Staffelmauser was studied in a sample of 566 Shags mainly from northeast England. The replacement of the juvenal primaries starts at the age of eight months with the loss of the innermost primary and continues outwards at a rate of about one primary per 17 days. Another cycle starts when the first reaches the 8th primary but both cycles soon pause for the winter. Successive cycles are established annually in August or September in this way, so that cycles which take longer than one year to complete result eventually in a Staffelmauser in which each feather is replaced once annually. Most individual Shags in a breeding population will retain feathers from two or three cycles, but a large sample of breeding adults of the same age will retain the feathers of four cycles. The winter pause is considered an adaptation to the increased probability of adverse conditions at this time. The system described for the ontogeny of the Staffelmauser is applicable to those other sea-birds which have been studied in detail, and is probably advantageous since it combines slow moult during the difficult early years with a highly efficient moult during the breeding years, especially where moult and breeding occur together.     

浅议峡东陡山沱组的“瓶状微化石”

通过对峡东晚震旦世陡山沱组岩石样品的化学浸解处理、连续切片研究及大量薄片观察,作者认为先前报道的陡山沱组“瓶状微化石”,即所谓最古老的原生动物的外壳遗骸,实际上并非什么瓶状微化石,而是一种有蓝藻（可能还有细菌）参与的沉积构造。