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We urgently need to predict species responses to climate change to minimize future biodiversity loss and ensure we do not waste limited resources on ineffective conservation strategies. Currently, most predictions of species responses to climate change ignore the potential for evolution. However, evolution can alter species ecological responses, and different aspects of evolution and ecology can interact to produce complex eco‐evolutionary dynamics under climate change. Here we review how evolution could alter ecological responses to climate change on species warm and cool range margins, where evolution could be especially important. We discuss different aspects of evolution in isolation, and then synthesize results to consider how multiple evolutionary processes might interact and affect conservation strategies. On species cool range margins, the evolution of dispersal could increase range expansion rates and allow species to adapt to novel conditions in their new range. However, low genetic variation and genetic drift in small range‐front populations could also slow or halt range expansions. Together, these eco‐evolutionary effects could cause a three‐step, stop‐and‐go expansion pattern for many species. On warm range margins, isolation among populations could maintain high genetic variation that facilitates evolution to novel climates and allows species to persist longer than expected without evolution. This ‘evolutionary extinction debt’ could then prevent other species from shifting their ranges. However, as climate change increases isolation among populations, increasing dispersal mortality could select for decreased dispersal and cause rapid range contractions. Some of these eco‐evolutionary dynamics could explain why many species are not responding to climate change as predicted. We conclude by suggesting that resurveying historical studies that measured trait frequencies, the strength of selection, or heritabilities could be an efficient way to increase our eco‐evolutionary knowledge in climate change biology. 相似文献
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M.G. Smolik S. Dullinger F. Essl I. Kleinbauer M. Leitner J. Peterseil L.‐M. Stadler G. Vogl 《Journal of Biogeography》2010,37(3):411-422
Aim We demonstrate how to integrate two widely used tools for modelling the spread of invasive plants, and compare the performance of the combined model with that of its individual components using the recent range dynamics of the invasive annual weed Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. Location Austria. Methods Species distribution models, which deliver habitat‐based information on potential distributions, and interacting particle systems, which simulate spatio‐temporal range dynamics as dependent on neighbourhood configurations, were combined into a common framework. We then used the combined model to simulate the invasion of A. artemisiifolia in Austria between 1990 and 2005. For comparison, simulations were also performed with models that accounted only for habitat suitability or neighbourhood configurations. The fit of the three models to the data was assessed by likelihood ratio tests, and simulated invasion patterns were evaluated against observed ones in terms of predictive discrimination ability (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, AUC) and spatial autocorrelation (Moran’s I). Results The combined model fitted the data significantly better than the single‐component alternatives. Simulations relying solely on parameterized spread kernels performed worst in terms of both AUC and spatial pattern formation. Simulations based only on habitat information correctly predicted infestation of susceptible areas but reproduced the autocorrelated patterns of A. artemisiifolia expansion less adequately than did the integrated model. Main conclusions Our integrated modelling approach offers a flexible tool for forecasts of spatio‐temporal invasion patterns from landscape to regional scales. As a further advantage, scenarios of environmental change can be incorporated consistently by appropriately updating habitat suitability layers. Given the susceptibility of many alien plants, including A. artemisiifolia, to both land use and climate changes, taking such scenarios into account will increasingly become relevant for the design of proactive management strategies. 相似文献
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Alexandre V. Palaoro Marcelo M. Dalosto Gabriel C. Costa Sandro Santos 《Freshwater Biology》2013,58(7):1379-1391
- Invasive species are one of the most severe threats to biodiversity, and an ability to predict the extent of potential invasions can help conservation strategies. Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely used to project the potential range of invasive species. These models assume that species retain their niche properties during invasion (niche conservatism), although this assumption is seldom verified.
- We gathered occurrence records for the crayfish Procambarus clarkii from the U.S.A. and Mexico (native + invasive ranges) and from the Iberian Peninsula (invasive) to test for niche conservatism across continents using niche overlap metrics (Schoener's D). To test for differences in the climate space occupied by the species on the different continents, we performed two principal component analyses (PCAs) on the environmental data extracted from occurrence records: first, separately for each occurrence data set (i.e. each continent) and secondly, using the pooled data. Subsequently, we projected the model to South America, where this species has the potential to become invasive.
- Schoener's D showed high overlap (0.68) between the two regions (the Americas and Iberia), and there was no difference between the regions in both PCAs. The crayfish has conserved its niche across continents, and therefore, our model projection to South America may accurately demonstrate where invasion is most likely to occur.
- Large parts of South America are apparently suitable, mainly Argentina, Chile, Paraguay, Uruguay and southern Brazil. This result is of great concern since this invasive species can spread quickly in suitable areas. Stronger laws and regulations should be made to protect native biodiversity and agricultural land. Our approach could be replicated for the study of invasions by other species where extensive data on the potentially invaded areas are available.
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Recent patterns of global change have highlighted the importance of understanding the dynamics and mechanisms of species range shifts and expansions. Unique demographic features, spatial processes, and selective pressures can result in the accumulation and evolution of distinctive phenotypic traits at the leading edges of expansions. We review the characteristics of expanding range margins and highlight possible mechanisms for the appearance of phenotypic differences between individuals at the leading edge and core of the range. The development of life history traits that increase dispersal or reproductive ability is predicted by theory and supported with extensive empirical evidence. Many examples of rapid phenotypic change are associated with trade‐offs that may influence the persistence of the trait once expansion ends. Accounting for the effects of edge phenotypes and related trade‐offs could be critical for predicting the spread of invasive species and population responses to climate change. 相似文献
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Aim Species in the tropics respond to global warming by altitudinal distribution shifts. Consequences for biodiversity may be severe, resulting in lowland attrition, range‐shift gaps, range contractions and extinction risks. We aim to identify plant groups (growth forms, families, endemic status) with higher than average risks. Location South Ethiopian highlands. Methods Based on observational data from mainly unexplored and remote mountain regions, we applied a published model to project the consequences of an upward shift of thermal site conditions on the altitudinal distribution of 475 plant species. Annual average temperature increases of up to 5 °C were evaluated. Differences between groups of species were analysed by a permutation procedure and Generalized Linear Models. Results Because of a limited regional species pool, even mild warming is projected to create strong potential risks concerning lowland attrition, i.e. the net loss of species richness because of upward range shifts in the absence of new species arriving. Likewise, many species are expected to face range‐shift gaps, i.e. the absence of an overlap between future and current altitudinal ranges already under mild warming scenarios. Altitudinal contractions and mountain‐top extinctions will potentially become important when warming exceeds 3.5 °C. Mean area per species is projected to decline by 55% for the A2 emissions scenario (+4.2 °C until 2100) because of the physical shape of the mountains. Higher than average vulnerability is expected for endemic species as well as for herbs and ferns. Plant families that are especially threatened are identified. Main conclusions Lowland biotic attrition and range‐shift gaps as predicted by a simple model driven by shifts of isotherms will result in novel challenges for preserving mountain biodiversity in the inner tropics. Whereas contractions of occupied area are expected to threaten endemic and already endangered species in particular, we suggest that conservation priorities can be identified based on simple prognostic models even without precise regional warming scenarios. 相似文献
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Kai Zhu Christopher W. Woodall Souparno Ghosh Alan E. Gelfand James S. Clark 《Global Change Biology》2014,20(1):251-264
Tree species are predicted to track future climate by shifting their geographic distributions, but climate‐mediated migrations are not apparent in a recent continental‐scale analysis. To better understand the mechanisms of a possible migration lag, we analyzed relative recruitment patterns by comparing juvenile and adult tree abundances in climate space. One would expect relative recruitment to be higher in cold and dry climates as a result of tree migration with juveniles located further poleward than adults. Alternatively, relative recruitment could be higher in warm and wet climates as a result of higher tree population turnover with increased temperature and precipitation. Using the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis data at regional scales, we jointly modeled juvenile and adult abundance distributions for 65 tree species in climate space of the eastern United States. We directly compared the optimal climate conditions for juveniles and adults, identified the climates where each species has high relative recruitment, and synthesized relative recruitment patterns across species. Results suggest that for 77% and 83% of the tree species, juveniles have higher optimal temperature and optimal precipitation, respectively, than adults. Across species, the relative recruitment pattern is dominated by relatively more abundant juveniles than adults in warm and wet climates. These different abundance‐climate responses through life history are consistent with faster population turnover and inconsistent with the geographic trend of large‐scale tree migration. Taken together, this juvenile–adult analysis suggests that tree species might respond to climate change by having faster turnover as dynamics accelerate with longer growing seasons and higher temperatures, before there is evidence of poleward migration at biogeographic scales. 相似文献
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This article explores some fundamental aspects of ecological restoration dynamics when an ecosystem is exposed to and altered by environmental disturbances like invasive alien plants and metals/particulates. These dynamics are assessed in socioeconomic and phytoremediation terms with respect to the perspective of emerging nations (e.g. an Indo‐Burma global biodiversity hotspot). In this short report, we discussed the positive ecological uses of invasive alien plants in remediation/restoration of the contaminated environment. Therefore, the impacts of invasive alien plants on the ecosystem are analyzed as prerequisite for remediation/restoration efforts. The utility of an integrated approach is proposed as a promising option to help restore or sustain the socioecological systems from diverse disturbances. 相似文献
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Kevin J. Gaston† Tim M. Blackburn‡ Jeremy J.D. Greenwood§ Richard D. Gregory§¶ Rachel M. Quinn‡ John H. Lawton‡ 《Journal of Applied Ecology》2000,37(S1):39-59
1. The abundance and distribution of species tend to be linked, such that species declining in abundance often tend also to show declines in the number of sites they occupy, while species increasing in abundance tend also to be increasing in occupancy. Therefore, intraspecific abundance–occupancy relationships are commonly positive.
2. The intraspecific pattern is mirrored by more general positive interspecific abundance–occupancy relationships: widespread species tend to be abundant, and narrowly distributed species rare.
3. Here, we review recent research on these patterns based on the flora and fauna of the British Isles. We assess their generality, describe what is currently known about their structure, and summarize the results of tests of the several hypotheses proposed to explain their existence.
4. The positive form generally exhibited by abundance–occupancy relationships, intraspecific or interspecific, has consequences for several areas of applied ecology, including conservation, harvesting, biological invasions and biodiversity inventorying. These implications are discussed briefly. 相似文献
2. The intraspecific pattern is mirrored by more general positive interspecific abundance–occupancy relationships: widespread species tend to be abundant, and narrowly distributed species rare.
3. Here, we review recent research on these patterns based on the flora and fauna of the British Isles. We assess their generality, describe what is currently known about their structure, and summarize the results of tests of the several hypotheses proposed to explain their existence.
4. The positive form generally exhibited by abundance–occupancy relationships, intraspecific or interspecific, has consequences for several areas of applied ecology, including conservation, harvesting, biological invasions and biodiversity inventorying. These implications are discussed briefly. 相似文献
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One predicted impact of climate change is a poleward shift in the boundaries of species ranges. Existing methods for identifying such a boundary shift based on changes in the observed pattern of occupancy within a grid of cells are sensitive to changes in the overall rate of sightings and their latitudinal distribution that are unconnected to a boundary shift. A formal test for a boundary shift is described that allows for such changes. The test is applied to detect northward shifts in the northern boundary of the Essex skipper (Thymelicus lineola) butterfly and the European goldfinch (Carduelis carduelis) in Great Britain. A shift is detected in the latter case but not in the former. Results from a simulation study are presented showing that the test performs well. 相似文献
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Jacob D. O'Sullivan J. Christopher D. Terry Axel G. Rossberg 《Global Ecology and Biogeography》2023,32(12):2230-2243
Aim
The mechanisms determining the distribution of the number of sites species occupy, the occupancy frequency distribution (OFD), remain incompletely understood despite decades of research. To explore the dominant mechanisms responsible for the shape and temporal dynamics of empirical OFD, we develop a simple patch occupancy framework with intrinsically regulated local richness and fit the model to a highly replicated dataset describing macroinvertebrate, macrophyte and diatom occupancy.Location
England.Time period
Up to years between 1990 and 2020.Major taxa studied
Macroinvertebrates, macrophytes and diatoms.Methods
We study the OFD in a highly replicated dataset of freshwater metacommunities in England across time. We consider temporal change in species richness, composition, and in the shape of the OFD. Goodness-of-fit of the steady state of a simple patch occupancy model—which predicts a log-series OFD—to the empirical observations is assessed. Additionally, we test the capacity of the model to predict metacommunity-scale processes.Results
Our model provides a consistently good fit to empirical OFDs. It can additionally be used to predict metacommunity-scale species turnover.Main conclusions
Our results support the view that metacommunity structure reflects a dynamic steady state controlled by local limits to coexistence. 相似文献15.
Christopher J. Wheatley Colin M. Beale Richard B. Bradbury James W. Pearce‐Higgins Rob Critchlow Chris D. Thomas 《Global Change Biology》2017,23(9):3704-3715
Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species at risk from global climate change, but the wide range of methodologies available makes it difficult for end users, such as conservation practitioners or policymakers, to decide which method to use as a basis for decision‐making. In this study, we evaluate whether different assessments consistently assign species to the same risk categories and whether any of the existing methodologies perform well at identifying climate‐threatened species. We compare the outputs of 12 climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies, using both real and simulated species, and validate the methods using historic data for British birds and butterflies (i.e. using historical data to assign risks and more recent data for validation). Our results show that the different vulnerability assessment methods are not consistent with one another; different risk categories are assigned for both the real and simulated sets of species. Validation of the different vulnerability assessments suggests that methods incorporating historic trend data into the assessment perform best at predicting distribution trends in subsequent time periods. This study demonstrates that climate change vulnerability assessments should not be used interchangeably due to the poor overall agreement between methods when considering the same species. The results of our validation provide more support for the use of trend‐based rather than purely trait‐based approaches, although further validation will be required as data become available. 相似文献
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Diego Pavn‐Jordn Preben Clausen Mindaugas Dagys Koen Devos Vitor Encarnaao Anthony David Fox Teresa Frost Clemence Gaudard Menno Hornman Verena Keller Tom Langendoen &#x;ukasz &#x;awicki Lesley J. Lewis Svein‐Hkon Lorentsen Leho Luigujoe Wlodzimierz Meissner Blas Molina Petr Musil Zuzana Musilova Leif Nilsson Jean‐Yves Paquet Josef Ridzon Antra Stipniece Norbert Teufelbauer Johannes Wahl Marco Zenatello Aleksi Lehikoinen 《Diversity & distributions》2019,25(2):225-239
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The leafy liverwort genus Herbertus exhibits considerably variable morphology and widely disjunct distributions in both hemispheres. Here, the biogeographic history of the genus and its phylogenetic relationships with the focus on the taxonomically difficult, northern hemispheric disjunct species, were investigated. We conducted a time-calibrated, molecular-based phylogenetic analysis using psbA, trnL-F, and ITS1-2 loci and different approaches for ancestral range inference of the genus. Herbertus is inferred to have originated in the Cenozoic era about 51 million years ago, in an ancestral area including southern South America, the Neotropics, Oceania, and South-east Asia. The current distribution of the genus is supported to have resulted from long-term in situ persistence, short and long distance dispersals, extinctions and recolonizations. Postglacial range shifts between the southern and northern hemisphere in the genus show distinct patterns. In the southern hemisphere, Herbertus is characterized by in situ persistence, not showing further dispersal until the uplift of the Andean Cordillera. Species of the northern hemisphere showed wide range expansions and repeated recolonizations, including north- and southward dispersals, recolonizations and extinctions. Our results support that the ancestor of South-east Asiatic Herbertus had a Gondwanan origin and arrived in Asia via Indian Plate migration. The uplift of high mountains must have had a strong influence in the diversification and dispersal of the genus. Our results further suggest that climate changes must have had a profound effect on the evolution and biogeography of the species of Herbertus in the northern hemisphere, and might also have influenced the reproductive strategies of the genus. Few genetic differentiations amongst currently recognized species H. aduncus, H. dicranus, H. hutchinsiae, H. stramineus, H. delavayi, and H. kurzii, and amongst H. sendtneri, H. armitanus, and H. circinatus were shown, suggesting that the morphological characters that are currently used for delimiting species should be re-evaluated. 相似文献
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According to the global latitudinal diversity gradient, a decrease in animal and plant species richness exists from the tropics towards higher latitudes. The aim of this study was to describe the latitudinal distribution patterns of Chilean continental flora and delineate biogeographic regions along a 4270‐km north–south gradient. We reviewed plant lists for each of the 39 parallels of continental Chile to build a database of the geographical distribution of vascular plant species comprising 184 families, 957 genera and 3787 species, which corresponded to 100%, 94.9% and 74.2% of the richness previously defined for Chile, respectively. Using this latitudinal presence–absence species matrix, we identified areas with high plant richness and endemism and performed a Cluster analysis using Jaccard index to delineate biogeographic regions. This study found that richness at family, genus and species levels follow a unimodal 4270‐km latitudinal distribution curve, with a concentration of richness in central Chile (31–42°S). The 37th parallel south (central Chile) presented the highest richness for all taxonomic levels and in specific zones the endemism (22–37°S) was especially high. This unimodal pattern contrasts the global latitudinal diversity gradient shown by other studies in the Northern hemisphere. Seven floristic regions were identified in this latitudinal gradient: tropical (18–22°S), north Mediterranean (23–28°S), central Mediterranean (29–32°S), south Mediterranean (33–37°S), north temperate (38–42°S), south temperate (43–52°S) and Austral (53–56°S). This regionalization coincides with previous bioclimatic classifications and illustrates the high heterogeneity of the biodiversity in Chile and the need for a reconsideration of governmental conservation strategies to protect this diversity throughout Chile. 相似文献
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Devin R. de Zwaan;Andrew Huang;Caroline H. Fox;David W. Bradley;Danielle M. Ethier; 《Global Change Biology》2024,30(2):e17178
Climate change and anthropogenic stressors are redistributing species and altering community composition globally. Protected areas (PAs) may not sufficiently protect populations of species undergoing distributional shifts, necessitating that we evaluate existing PAs and identify areas for future protection to conserve biodiversity across regional and temporal scales. Coastal waterbirds are important indicators of marine ecosystem health, representing mobile, long-lived, higher trophic-level consumers. Using a 20-year citizen science dataset (1999–2019) with a before-after control-intervention sampling framework for habitat protection, we applied dynamic occupancy models to assess winter occupancy trends along the Pacific coast of Canada. Specifically, we sought to understand potential drivers of regional declines, spatial commonalities among guilds, and changes in habitat use before and after PA designation, as well as between PAs and non-PAs. Occupancy trends varied regionally, with greater declines in the south compared to the north. Regional differences underlined potential range shifts, particularly for species with traits linked to temperature tolerance, movement, and high productivity foraging, as cold-tolerant, migratory benthivores and piscivores wintered farther north relative to 20 years ago or retreated to cold-water fjords. While 21 of 57 (36.8%) species responded positively to PA designation (before-after), greater occupancy declines tended to occur in PAs established pre-1999 relative to non-PAs (control-intervention). Since PAs are currently concentrated in the south, negative associations were most apparent for species retreating northward, but existing PAs may have a stabilizing or transitory effect on southern wintering species shifting into the region from farther south. We emphasize that conservation strategies must balance persistence of current communities with preserving the climate-adapted biodiversity of tomorrow by accounting for community-level effects of species moving into and out of existing PAs. Incorporating range shifts into PA planning by predicting distributional changes will allow conservation practitioners to identify priority habitats, such as cold-water refugia, for persistent wildlife communities. 相似文献
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Assumptions about factors such as climate in shaping species'' realized and potential distributions underlie much of conservation planning and wildlife management. Climate and climatic change lead to shifts in species distributions through both direct and indirect ecological pressures. Distributional shifts may be particularly important if range overlap is altered between interacting species, or between species and protected areas. The cattle family (Bovidae) represents a culturally, economically, and ecologically important taxon that occupies many of the world''s rangelands. In contemporary North America, five wild bovid species inhabit deserts, prairies, mountains, and tundra from Mexico to Greenland. Here, we aim to understand how future climate change will modify environmental characteristics associated with North American bovid species relative to the distribution of extant protected areas. We fit species distribution models for each species to climate, topography, and land cover data using observations from a citizen science dataset. We then projected modeled distributions to the end of the 21st century for each bovid species under two scenarios of anticipated climate change. Modeling results suggest that suitable habitat will shift inconsistently across species and that such shifts will lead to species‐specific variation in overlap between potential habitat and existing protected areas. Furthermore, projected overlap with protected areas was sensitive to the warming scenario under consideration, with diminished realized protected area under greater warming. Conservation priorities and designation of new protected areas should account for ecological consequences of climate change. 相似文献