Lack of Correlation between Stem-Cell Proliferation and Radiation- or Smoking-Associated Cancer Risk

Background

A recent paper by Tomasetti and Vogelstein (Science 2015 347 78–81) suggested that the variation in natural cancer risk was largely explained by the total number of stem-cell divisions, and that most cancers arose by chance. They proposed an extra-risk score as way of distinguishing the effects of the stochastic, replicative component of cancer risk from other causative factors, specifically those due to the external environment and inherited mutations.

Objectives

We tested the hypothesis raised by Tomasetti and Vogelstein by assessing the degree of correlation of stem cell divisions and their extra-risk score with radiation- and tobacco-associated cancer risk.

Methods

We fitted a variety of linear and log-linear models to data on stem cell divisions per year and cumulative stem cell divisions over lifetime and natural cancer risk, some taken from the paper of Tomasetti and Vogelstein, augmented using current US lifetime cancer risk data, and also radiation- and tobacco-associated cancer risk.

Results

The data assembled by Tomasetti and Vogelstein, as augmented here, are inconsistent with the power-of-age relationship commonly observed for cancer incidence and the predictions of a multistage carcinogenesis model, if one makes the strong assumption of homogeneity of numbers of driver mutations across cancer sites. Analysis of the extra-risk score and various other measures (number of stem cell divisions per year, cumulative number of stem cell divisions over life) considered by Tomasetti and Vogelstein suggests that these are poorly predictive of currently available estimates of radiation- or smoking-associated cancer risk–for only one out of 37 measures or logarithmic transformations thereof is there a statistically significant correlation (p<0.05) with radiation- or smoking-associated risk.

Conclusions

The data used by Tomasetti and Vogelstein are in conflict with predictions of a multistage model of carcinogenesis, under the assumption of homogeneity of numbers of driver mutations across most cancer sites. Their hypothesis that if the extra-risk score for a tissue type is high then one would expect that environmental factors would play a relatively more important role in that cancer’s risk is in conflict with the lack of correlation between the extra-risk score and other stem-cell proliferation indices and radiation- or smoking-related cancer risk.     

Determining cancer risk: the evolutionary multistage model or total stem cell divisions?

A recent hypothesis proposed that the total number of stem cell divisions in a tissue (TSCD model) determine its intrinsic cancer risk; however, a different model—the multistage model—has long been used to understand how cancer originates. Identifying the correct model has important implications for interpreting the frequency of cancers. Using worldwide cancer incidence data, we applied three tests to the TSCD model and an evolutionary multistage model of carcinogenesis (EMMC), a model in which cancer suppression is recognized as an evolving trait, with natural selection acting to suppress cancers causing a significant mean loss of Darwinian fitness. Each test supported the EMMC but contradicted the TSCD model. This outcome undermines results based on the TSCD model quantifying the relative importance of ‘bad luck'' (the random accumulation of somatic mutations) versus environmental and genetic factors in determining cancer incidence. Our testing supported the EMMC prediction that cancers of large rapidly dividing tissues predominate late in life. Another important prediction is that an indicator of recent oncogenic environmental change is an unusually high mean fitness loss due to cancer, rather than a high lifetime incidence. The evolutionary model also predicts that large and/or long-lived animals have evolved mechanisms of cancer suppression that may be of value in preventing or controlling human cancers.     

The multiple facets of Peto's paradox: a life-history model for the evolution of cancer suppression

Large animals should have higher lifetime probabilities of cancer than small animals because each cell division carries an attendant risk of mutating towards a tumour lineage. However, this is not observed—a (Peto''s) paradox that suggests large and/or long-lived species have evolved effective cancer suppression mechanisms. Using the Euler–Lotka population model, we demonstrate the evolutionary value of cancer suppression as determined by the ‘cost’ (decreased fecundity) of suppression verses the ‘cost’ of cancer (reduced survivorship). Body size per se will not select for sufficient cancer suppression to explain the paradox. Rather, cancer suppression should be most extreme when the probability of non-cancer death decreases with age (e.g. alligators), maturation is delayed, fecundity rates are low and fecundity increases with age. Thus, the value of cancer suppression is predicted to be lowest in the vole (short lifespan, high fecundity) and highest in the naked mole rat (long lived with late female sexual maturity). The life history of pre-industrial humans likely selected for quite low levels of cancer suppression. In modern humans that live much longer, this level results in unusually high lifetime cancer risks. The model predicts a lifetime risk of 49% compared with the current empirical value of 43%.     

Size,longevity and cancer: age structure

There is significant recent interest in Peto''s paradox and the related problem of the evolution of large, long-lived organisms in terms of cancer robustness. Peto''s paradox refers to the expectation that large, long-lived organisms have a higher lifetime cancer risk, which is not the case: a paradox. This paradox, however, is circular: large, long-lived organisms are large and long-lived because they are cancer robust. Lifetime risk, meanwhile, depends on the age distributions of both cancer and competing risks: if cancer strikes before competing risks, then lifetime risk is high; if not, not. Because no set of competing risks is generally prevalent, it is instructive to temporarily dispose of competing risks and investigate the pure age dynamics of cancer under the multistage model of carcinogenesis. In addition to augmenting earlier results, I show that in terms of cancer-free lifespan large organisms reap greater benefits from an increase in cellular cancer robustness than smaller organisms. Conversely, a higher cellular cancer robustness renders cancer-free lifespan more resilient to an increase in size. This interaction may be an important driver of the evolution of large, cancer-robust organisms.     

Patterns of cell division and the risk of cancer

Epidermal and intestinal tissues divide throughout life to replace lost surface cells. These renewing tissues have long-lived basal stem cell lineages that divide many times, each division producing one stem cell and one transit cell. The transit cell divides a limited number of times, producing cells that move up from the basal layer and eventually slough off from the surface. If mutation rates are the same in stem and transit divisions, we show that minimal cancer risk is obtained by using the fewest possible stem divisions subject to the constraints imposed by the need to renew the tissue. In this case, stem cells are a necessary risk imposed by the constraints of tissue architecture. Cairns suggested that stem cells may have lower mutation rates than transit cells do. We develop a mathematical model to study the consequences of different stem and transit mutation rates. Our model shows that stem cell mutation rates two or three orders of magnitude less than transit mutation rates may favor relatively more stem divisions and fewer transit divisions, perhaps explaining how renewing tissues allocate cell divisions between long stem and short transit lineages.     

The MiAge Calculator: a DNA methylation-based mitotic age calculator of human tissue types

Cell division is important in human aging and cancer. The estimation of the number of cell divisions (mitotic age) of a given tissue type in individuals is of great interest as it allows not only the study of biological aging (using a new molecular aging target) but also the stratification of prospective cancer risk. Here, we introduce the MiAge Calculator, a mitotic age calculator based on a novel statistical framework, the MiAge model. MiAge is designed to quantitatively estimate mitotic age (total number of lifetime cell divisions) of a tissue using the stochastic replication errors accumulated in the epigenetic inheritance process during cell divisions. With the MiAge model, the MiAge Calculator was built using the training data of DNA methylation measures of 4,020 tumor and adjacent normal tissue samples from eight TCGA cancer types and was tested using the testing data of DNA methylation measures of 2,221 tumor and adjacent normal tissue samples of five other TCGA cancer types. We showed that within each of the thirteen cancer types studied, the estimated mitotic age is universally accelerated in tumor tissues compared to adjacent normal tissues. Across the thirteen cancer types, we showed that worse cancer survivals are associated with more accelerated mitotic age in tumor tissues. Importantly, we demonstrated the utility of mitotic age by showing that the integration of mitotic age and clinical information leads to improved survival prediction in six out of the thirteen cancer types studied. The MiAge Calculator is available at http://www.columbia.edu/～sw2206/softwares.htm.     

Mechanical stress,fracture risk and beak evolution in Darwin's ground finches (Geospiza)

Darwin''s finches have radiated from a common ancestor into 14 descendent species, each specializing on distinct food resources and evolving divergent beak forms. Beak morphology in the ground finches (Geospiza) has been shown to evolve via natural selection in response to variation in food type, food availability and interspecific competition for food. From a mechanical perspective, however, beak size and shape are only indirectly related to birds'' abilities to crack seeds, and beak form is hypothesized to evolve mainly under selection for fracture avoidance. Here, we test the fracture-avoidance hypothesis using finite-element modelling. We find that across species, mechanical loading is similar and approaches reported values of bone strength, thus suggesting pervasive selection on fracture avoidance. Additionally, deep and wide beaks are better suited for dissipating stress than are more elongate beaks when scaled to common sizes and loadings. Our results illustrate that deep and wide beaks in ground finches enable reduction of areas with high stress and peak stress magnitudes, allowing birds to crack hard seeds while limiting the risk of beak failure. These results may explain strong selection on beak depth and width in natural populations of Darwin''s finches.     

A stochastic model for cancer risk

We propose a simple stochastic model based on the two successive mutations hypothesis to compute cancer risks. Assume that only stem cells are susceptible to the first mutation and that there are a total of D stem cell divisions over the lifetime of the tissue with a first mutation probability mu(1) per division. Our model predicts that cancer risk will be low if m = mu(1)D is low even in the case of very advantageous mutations. Moreover, if mu(1)D is low the mutation probability of the second mutation is practically irrelevant to the cancer risk. These results are in contrast with existing models but in agreement with a conjecture of Cairns. In the case where m is large our model predicts that the cancer risk depends crucially on whether the first mutation is advantageous or not. A disadvantageous or neutral mutation makes the risk of cancer drop dramatically.     

Feeding innovations in a nested phylogeny of Neotropical passerines

Several studies on cognition, molecular phylogenetics and taxonomic diversity independently suggest that Darwin''s finches are part of a larger clade of speciose, flexible birds, the family Thraupidae, a member of the New World nine-primaried oscine superfamily Emberizoidea. Here, we first present a new, previously unpublished, dataset of feeding innovations covering the Neotropical region and compare the stem clades of Darwin''s finches to other neotropical clades at the levels of the subfamily, family and superfamily/order. Both in terms of raw frequency as well as rates corrected for research effort and phylogeny, the family Thraupidae and superfamily Emberizoidea show high levels of innovation, supporting the idea that adaptive radiations are favoured when the ancestral stem species were flexible. Second, we discuss examples of innovation and problem-solving in two opportunistic and tame Emberizoid species, the Barbados bullfinch Loxigilla barbadensis and the Carib grackle Quiscalus lugubris fortirostris in Barbados. We review studies on these two species and argue that a comparison of L. barbadensis with its closest, but very shy and conservative local relative, the black-faced grassquit Tiaris bicolor, might provide key insights into the evolutionary divergence of cognition.     

黄土高原不同植被带内草地植物叶片解剖性状的变异规律

叶片作为植物与外界进行物质交换的桥梁,其解剖性状能够相互协调以应对外界环境对植物生长造成的不利影响,从而反映出植物对环境变化所采取的适应策略。通过对黄土高原不同植被带(森林草原带、典型草原带、荒漠草原带)草地群落中常见115种植物(包括单子叶植物,双子叶植物,木本植物和草本植物四种功能型植物)叶片进行取样,并运用石蜡制片技术和光学显微技术获得叶片解剖性状(包括表皮厚度、栅栏组织厚度、海绵组织厚度、叶肉厚度和叶片厚度),旨在研究不同植被带内草地植物叶片解剖性状的变异规律及其与群落内物种相对优势度之间的关系,为黄土高原植被恢复和生态环境改善提供理论依据。结果表明：(1)沿着干旱梯度,从森林草原带、典型草原带到荒漠草原带,除叶肉厚度外,植物各叶片解剖性状值均呈现增大趋势,表明干旱地区叶片的旱生结构特征明显。(2)不同功能型植物叶片解剖性状与环境因子的关系各异。木本植物和草本植物的栅栏组织厚度和栅海比均与降水和土壤养分呈显著负相关关系(P<0.05)。同时,木本植物的叶片厚度与水分呈显著负相关关系(P<0.05),而草本植物表皮厚度仅与土壤养分呈显著负相关关系(P<0.05)...     

Symmetric vs. Asymmetric Stem Cell Divisions: An Adaptation against Cancer?

Traditionally, it has been held that a central characteristic of stem cells is their ability to divide asymmetrically. Recent advances in inducible genetic labeling provided ample evidence that symmetric stem cell divisions play an important role in adult mammalian homeostasis. It is well understood that the two types of cell divisions differ in terms of the stem cells'' flexibility to expand when needed. On the contrary, the implications of symmetric and asymmetric divisions for mutation accumulation are still poorly understood. In this paper we study a stochastic model of a renewing tissue, and address the optimization problem of tissue architecture in the context of mutant production. Specifically, we study the process of tumor suppressor gene inactivation which usually takes place as a consequence of two “hits”, and which is one of the most common patterns in carcinogenesis. We compare and contrast symmetric and asymmetric (and mixed) stem cell divisions, and focus on the rate at which double-hit mutants are generated. It turns out that symmetrically-dividing cells generate such mutants at a rate which is significantly lower than that of asymmetrically-dividing cells. This result holds whether single-hit (intermediate) mutants are disadvantageous, neutral, or advantageous. It is also independent on whether the carcinogenic double-hit mutants are produced only among the stem cells or also among more specialized cells. We argue that symmetric stem cell divisions in mammals could be an adaptation which helps delay the onset of cancers. We further investigate the question of the optimal fraction of stem cells in the tissue, and quantify the contribution of non-stem cells in mutant production. Our work provides a hypothesis to explain the observation that in mammalian cells, symmetric patterns of stem cell division seem to be very common.     

Investigating the link between epithelial-mesenchymal transition and the cancer stem cell phenotype: A mathematical approach

Under the cancer stem cell (CSC) hypothesis, sustained metastatic growth requires the dissemination of a CSC from the primary tumour followed by its re-establishment in a secondary site. The epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT), a differentiation process crucial to normal development, has been implicated in conferring metastatic ability on carcinomas. Balancing these two concepts has led researchers to investigate a possible link between EMT and the CSC phenotype—indeed, recent evidence indicates that, following induction of EMT in human breast cancer and related cell lines, stem cell activity increased, as judged by the presence of cells displaying the CD44^high/CD24^low phenotype and an increase in the ability of cells to form mammospheres. We mathematically investigate the nature of this increase in stem cell activity. A stochastic model is used when small number of cells are under consideration, namely in simulating the mammosphere assay, while a related continuous model is used to probe the dynamics of larger cell populations. Two scenarios of EMT-mediated CSC enrichment are considered. In the first, differentiated cells re-acquire a CSC phenotype—this model implicates fully mature cells as key subjects of de-differentiation and entails a delay period of several days before de-differentiation occurs. In the second, pre-existing CSCs experience accelerated division and increased proportion of self-renewing divisions; a lack of perfect CSC biomarkers and cell sorting techniques requires that this model be considered, further emphasizing the need for better characterization of the mammary (cancer) stem cell hierarchy. Additionally, we suggest the utility of comparing mammosphere data to computational mammosphere simulations in elucidating the growth characteristics of mammary (cancer) stem cells.     

Cancer susceptibility and reproductive trade-offs: a model of the evolution of cancer defences

The factors influencing cancer susceptibility and why it varies across species are major open questions in the field of cancer biology. One underexplored source of variation in cancer susceptibility may arise from trade-offs between reproductive competitiveness (e.g. sexually selected traits, earlier reproduction and higher fertility) and cancer defence. We build a model that contrasts the probabilistic onset of cancer with other, extrinsic causes of mortality and use it to predict that intense reproductive competition will lower cancer defences and increase cancer incidence. We explore the trade-off between cancer defences and intraspecific competition across different extrinsic mortality conditions and different levels of trade-off intensity, and find the largest effect of competition on cancer in species where low extrinsic mortality combines with strong trade-offs. In such species, selection to delay cancer and selection to outcompete conspecifics are both strong, and the latter conflicts with the former. We discuss evidence for the assumed trade-off between reproductive competitiveness and cancer susceptibility. Sexually selected traits such as ornaments or large body size require high levels of cell proliferation and appear to be associated with greater cancer susceptibility. Similar associations exist for female traits such as continuous egg-laying in domestic hens and earlier reproductive maturity. Trade-offs between reproduction and cancer defences may be instantiated by a variety of mechanisms, including higher levels of growth factors and hormones, less efficient cell-cycle control and less DNA repair, or simply a larger number of cell divisions (relevant when reproductive success requires large body size or rapid reproductive cycles). These mechanisms can affect intra- and interspecific variation in cancer susceptibility arising from rapid cell proliferation during reproductive maturation, intrasexual competition and reproduction.     

Using Lifetime Risk Estimates in Personal Genomic Profiles: Estimation of Uncertainty

Personal genome tests are now offered direct-to-consumer (DTC) via genetic variants identified by genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for common diseases. Tests report risk estimates (age-specific and lifetime) for various diseases based on genotypes at multiple loci. However, uncertainty surrounding such risk estimates has not been systematically investigated. With breast cancer as an example, we examined the combined effect of uncertainties in population incidence rates, genotype frequency, effect sizes, and models of joint effects among genetic variants on lifetime risk estimates. We performed simulations to estimate lifetime breast cancer risk for carriers and noncarriers of genetic variants. We derived population-based cancer incidence rates from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program and comparative international data. We used data for non-Hispanic white women from 2003 to 2005. We derived genotype frequencies and effect sizes from published GWAS and meta-analyses. For a single genetic variant in FGFR2 gene (rs2981582), combination of uncertainty in these parameters produced risk estimates where upper and lower 95% simulation intervals differed by more than 3-fold. Difference in population incidence rates was the largest contributor to variation in risk estimates. For a panel of five genetic variants, estimated lifetime risk of developing breast cancer before age 80 for a woman that carried all risk variants ranged from 6.1% to 21%, depending on assumptions of additive or multiplicative joint effects and breast cancer incidence rates. Epidemiologic parameters involved in computation of disease risk have substantial uncertainty, and cumulative uncertainty should be properly recognized. Reliance on point estimates alone could be seriously misleading.     

Urbanization increases floral specialization of pollinators

Understanding how urbanization alters functional interactions among pollinators and plants is critically important given increasing anthropogenic land use and declines in pollinator populations. Pollinators often exhibit short‐term specialization and visit plants of the same species during one foraging trip. This facilitates plant receipt of conspecific pollen—pollen on a pollinator that is the same species as the plant on which the pollinator was foraging. Conspecific pollen receipt facilitates plant reproductive success and is thus important to plant and pollinator persistence. We investigated how urbanization affects short‐term specialization of insect pollinators by examining pollen loads on insects’ bodies and identifying the number and species of pollen grains on insects caught in urban habitat fragments and natural areas. We assessed possible drivers of differences between urban and natural areas, including frequency dependence in foraging, species richness and diversity of the plant and pollinator communities, floral abundance, and the presence of invasive plant species. Pollinators were more specialized in urban fragments than in natural areas, despite no differences in the species richness of plant communities across site types. These differences were likely driven by higher specialization of common pollinators, which were more abundant in urban sites. In addition, pollinators preferred to forage on invasive plants at urban sites and native plants at natural sites. Our findings reveal indirect effects of urbanization on pollinator fidelity to individual plant species and have implications for the maintenance of plant species diversity in small habitat fragments. Higher preference of pollinators for invasive plants at urban sites suggests that native species may receive fewer visits by pollinators. Therefore, native plant species diversity may decline in urban sites without continued augmentation of urban flora or removal of invasive species.     

Sociability increases survival of adult female giraffes

Studies increasingly show that social connectedness plays a key role in determining survival, in addition to natural and anthropogenic environmental factors. Few studies, however, integrated social, non-social and demographic data to elucidate what components of an animal''s socio-ecological environment are most important to their survival. Female giraffes (Giraffa camelopardalis) form structured societies with highly dynamic group membership but stable long-term associations. We examined the relative contributions of sociability (relationship strength, gregariousness and betweenness), together with those of the natural (food sources and vegetation types) and anthropogenic environment (distance from human settlements), to adult female giraffe survival. We tested predictions about the influence of sociability and natural and human factors at two social levels: the individual and the social community. Survival was primarily driven by individual- rather than community-level social factors. Gregariousness (the number of other females each individual was observed with on average) was most important in explaining variation in female adult survival, more than other social traits and any natural or anthropogenic environmental factors. For adult female giraffes, grouping with more other females, even as group membership frequently changes, is correlated with better survival, and this sociability appears to be more important than several attributes of their non-social environment.     

Age-specific cost of first reproduction in female southern elephant seals

When to commence breeding is a crucial life-history decision that may be the most important determinant of an individual''s lifetime reproductive output and can have major consequences on population dynamics. The age at which individuals first reproduce is an important factor influencing the intensity of potential costs (e.g. reduced survival) involved in the first breeding event. However, quantifying age-related variation in the cost of first reproduction in wild animals remains challenging because of the difficulty in reliably recording the first breeding event. Here, using a multi-event capture–recapture model that accounts for both imperfect detection and uncertainty in the breeding status on an 18-year dataset involving 6637 individuals, we estimated age and state-specific survival of female elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) in the declining Macquarie Island population. We detected a clear cost of first reproduction on survival. This cost was higher for both younger first-time breeders and older first-time breeders compared with females recruiting at age four, the overall mean age at first reproduction. Neither earlier primiparity nor delaying primiparity appear to confer any evolutionary advantage, rather the optimal strategy seems to be to start breeding at a single age, 4 years.     

Dynamics of human telomerase RNA structure revealed by antisense oligonucleotide technique

Telomeres are the nucleoprotein complexes that cap the linear chromosome ends. Telomerase is a ribonucleoprotein that maintains telomere length in stem, embryonic and cancer cells. Somatic cells don't contain active telomerase and telomere function as mitotic clock and telomere length determines the number of cell divisions. Telomerase RNA (TER) contains the template for telomere synthesis and serves as a structural scaffold for holoenzyme assembly. We compared different oligonucleotide based methods for telomerase RNA inhibition, such as antisense oligonucleotides, knockdown by transient siRNA transfection and silencing by miRNA derived from short expressed RNA hairpin in HEK293 cells. All of these methods were applied to different TER regions. Our results revealed that CR2/CR3 domain of TER is accessible in vitro and in vivo and could serve as an optimal site for oligonucleotide-based telomerase silencing.