Forage plants of an Arctic‐nesting herbivore show larger warming response in breeding than wintering grounds,potentially disrupting migration phenology

During spring migration, herbivorous waterfowl breeding in the Arctic depend on peaks in the supply of nitrogen‐rich forage plants, following a “green wave” of grass growth along their flyway to fuel migration and reproduction. The effects of climate warming on forage plant growth are expected to be larger at the Arctic breeding grounds than in temperate wintering grounds, potentially disrupting this green wave and causing waterfowl to mistime their arrival on the breeding grounds. We studied the potential effect of climate warming on timing of food peaks along the migratory flyway of the Russian population of barnacle geese using a warming experiment with open‐top chambers. We measured the effect of 1.0–1.7°C experimental warming on forage plant biomass and nitrogen concentration at three sites along the migratory flyway (temperate wintering site, temperate spring stopover site, and Arctic breeding site) during 2 months for two consecutive years. We found that experimental warming increased biomass accumulation and sped up the decline in nitrogen concentration of forage plants at the Arctic breeding site but not at temperate wintering and stop‐over sites. Increasing spring temperatures in the Arctic will thus shorten the food peak of nitrogen‐rich forage at the breeding grounds. Our results further suggest an advance of the local food peak in the Arctic under 1–2°C climate warming, which will likely cause migrating geese to mistime their arrival at the breeding grounds, particularly considering the Arctic warms faster than the temperate regions. The combination of a shorter food peak and mistimed arrival is likely to decrease goose reproductive success under climate warming by reducing growth and survival of goslings after hatching.     

Influence of climate change and postdelisting management on long‐term population viability of the conservation‐reliant Kirtland's Warbler

Rapid global climate change is resulting in novel abiotic and biotic conditions and interactions. Identifying management strategies that maximize probability of long‐term persistence requires an understanding of the vulnerability of species to environmental changes. We sought to quantify the vulnerability of Kirtland's Warbler (Setophaga kirtlandii), a rare Neotropical migratory songbird that breeds almost exclusively in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and winters in the Bahamian Archipelago, to projected environmental changes on the breeding and wintering grounds. We developed a population‐level simulation model that incorporates the influence of annual environmental conditions on the breeding and wintering grounds, and parameterized the model using empirical relationships. We simulated independent and additive effects of reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity and quality, and wintering grounds habitat quality, on population viability. Our results indicated the Kirtland's Warbler population is stable under current environmental and management conditions. Reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity resulted in reductions of the stable population size, but did not cause extinction under the scenarios we examined. In contrast, projected large reductions in wintering grounds precipitation caused the population to decline, with risk of extinction magnified when breeding habitat quantity or quality also decreased. Our study indicates that probability of long‐term persistence for Kirtland's Warbler will depend on climate change impacts to wintering grounds habitat quality and contributes to the growing literature documenting the importance of considering the full annual cycle for understanding population dynamics of migratory species.     

Carry‐over effects provide linkages across the annual cycle of a Neotropical migratory bird,the Louisiana Waterthrush Parkesia motacilla

Population limitation models of migratory birds have sought to include impacts from events across the full annual cycle. Previous work has shown that events occurring in winter result in some individuals transitioning to the breeding grounds earlier or in better physical condition than others, thereby affecting reproductive success (carry‐over effects). However, evidence for carry‐over effects from breeding to wintering grounds has been shown less often. We used feather corticosterone (CORT_f) levels of the migratory Louisiana Waterthrush Parkesia motacilla as a measure of the physiological state of birds at the time of moult on the breeding territory to investigate whether carry‐over effects provide linkages across the annual cycle of this stream‐obligate bird. We show that birds arriving on wintering grounds with lower CORT_f scores, indicating reduced energetic challenges or stressors at the time of moult, occupied higher quality territories, and that these birds then achieved a better body condition during the overwinter period. Body condition, in turn, was important in determining whether adult birds returned the following winter, with birds in better condition returning at higher rates. Together these data suggest a carry‐over effect from the breeding grounds to the wintering grounds that is further extended with respect to annual return rates. Very few other studies have linked conditions during the previous breeding season with latent effects during the subsequent overwintering period or with annual survival. This study shows that the effects of variation in energetic challenges or stressors can potentially carry over from the natal stream and accumulate over more than one life‐history period before being manifested in reduced survival. This is of particular relevance to models of population limitation in migratory birds.     

Contrasting consequences of climate change for migratory geese: Predation,density dependence and carryover effects offset benefits of high‐arctic warming

Climate change is most rapid in the Arctic, posing both benefits and challenges for migratory herbivores. However, population‐dynamic responses to climate change are generally difficult to predict, due to concurrent changes in other trophic levels. Migratory species are also exposed to contrasting climate trends and density regimes over the annual cycle. Thus, determining how climate change impacts their population dynamics requires an understanding of how weather directly or indirectly (through trophic interactions and carryover effects) affects reproduction and survival across migratory stages, while accounting for density dependence. Here, we analyse the overall implications of climate change for a local non‐hunted population of high‐arctic Svalbard barnacle geese, Branta leucopsis, using 28 years of individual‐based data. By identifying the main drivers of reproductive stages (egg production, hatching and fledging) and age‐specific survival rates, we quantify their impact on population growth. Recent climate change in Svalbard enhanced egg production and hatching success through positive effects of advanced spring onset (snow melt) and warmer summers (i.e. earlier vegetation green‐up) respectively. Contrastingly, there was a strong temporal decline in fledging probability due to increased local abundance of the Arctic fox, the main predator. While weather during the non‐breeding season influenced geese through a positive effect of temperature (UK wintering grounds) on adult survival and a positive carryover effect of rainfall (spring stopover site in Norway) on egg production, these covariates showed no temporal trends. However, density‐dependent effects occurred throughout the annual cycle, and the steadily increasing total flyway population size caused negative trends in overwinter survival and carryover effects on egg production. The combination of density‐dependent processes and direct and indirect climate change effects across life history stages appeared to stabilize local population size. Our study emphasizes the need for holistic approaches when studying population‐dynamic responses to global change in migratory species.     

Geographical variation in reproductive ageing patterns and life‐history strategy of a short‐lived passerine bird

We investigated differences in ageing patterns in three measures of breeding performance in populations of barn swallows Hirundo rustica L. from Spain and Denmark differing in breeding latitude and hence migration distance and duration of the breeding season. We found differences in ageing patterns between populations. Generally, young (i.e. yearling) and old females (i.e. ≥ 5 years of age) laid their first eggs later and produced smaller clutches than middle‐aged females (i.e. 2–4 years of age) in both populations. The southernmost population (i.e. Spanish) showing the shorter migratory distance experienced a greater within‐individual increase in timing of breeding and clutch size in early life and a greater within‐individual decrease in laying date but not in clutch size during senescence compared with the northernmost population (i.e. Danish). We also found that the number of fledglings produced annually was related to the age of the two members of the breeding pairs with pairs composed of young and old females performing less well than breeding pairs composed of middle‐aged females. We did not find reproductive senescence for the age of the male while controlling for the age of the female on the number of fledglings produced annually by the breeding pair. Differential survival between individuals did not explain age effects on laying date or annual clutch size in neither population. However, the increase in the number of fledglings produced annually with age was partly explained by the disappearance of poor‐quality members of the pairs, mainly poor‐quality males. Age‐related breeding success (i.e. number of fledglings) was similar for barn swallows from Spain and Denmark. Therefore, the study of ageing patterns and life‐history strategies in free‐ranging animals from more than a single population can throw new light on life‐history theory, population dynamics and evolutionary studies of senescence.     

Individual variation in sleep behaviour in blue tits Cyanistes caeruleus: assortative mating and associations with fitness‐related traits

Sleep is ubiquitous in animals, but there is great inter‐ and intraspecific variation in the daily amount of sleep that is needed. Chronic sleep curtailment or experimental sleep deprivation are known to impair health and performance of individuals, but not much is known about the fitness consequences of naturally occurring variation in sleep behaviour. Here we test for assortative mating in sleep behaviour and for correlations between sleep phenotypes and reproductive success and survival in a free‐living blue tit population. We found that partners of a social breeding pair were mated assortatively in regard to standardized awakening time, i.e. awakening time relative to that of other birds of the same sex in the population. We found no evidence for assortative mating for other sleep parameters. In female blue tits no sleep parameter that we measured was significantly correlated with lay date or clutch size. Females that had extra‐pair young in their brood did not differ in awakening time, or in any other sleep parameter, compared to females without extra‐pair young. In males, the probability of siring extra‐pair young was related to sleep onset and sleep duration, but not as predicted. Males that began to sleep earlier and slept longer were more likely to sire extra‐pair offspring. None of the sleep parameters were significantly correlated with local survival of first‐year birds. Our results suggest that there is no strong effect of variation in sleep behaviour on fitness in blue tits, at least under natural conditions. Such a relationship might only become evident when natural sleep patterns are experimentally disturbed, or when sleep quality is affected by anthropogenic noise or light pollution.     

Comparative migration strategies of wild and captive‐bred Asian Houbara Chlamydotis macqueenii

For migratory species, the success of population reintroduction or reinforcement through captive‐bred released individuals depends on survivors undertaking appropriate migrations. We assess whether captive‐bred Asian Houbara Chlamydotis macqueenii from a breeding programme established with locally sourced individuals and released into suitable habitat during spring or summer undertake similar migrations to those of wild birds. Using satellite telemetry, we compare the migrations of 29 captive‐bred juveniles, 10 wild juveniles and 39 wild adults (including three birds first tracked as juveniles), examining migratory propensity (proportion migrating), timing, direction, stopover duration and frequency, efficiency (route deviation), and wintering and breeding season locations. Captive‐bred birds initiated autumn migration an average of 20.6 (±4.6 se) days later and wintered 470.8 km (±76.4) closer to the breeding grounds, mainly in Turkmenistan, northern Iran and Afghanistan, than wild birds, which migrated 1217.8 km (±76.4), predominantly wintering in southern Iran and Pakistan (juveniles and adults were similar). Wintering locations of four surviving captive‐bred birds were similar in subsequent years (median distance to first wintering site = 70.8 km, range 6.56–221.6 km), suggesting that individual captive‐bred birds (but not necessarily their progeny) remain faithful to their first wintering latitude. The migratory performance of captive‐bred birds was otherwise similar to that of wild juveniles. Although the long‐term fitness consequences for captive‐bred birds establishing wintering sites at the northern edge of those occupied by wild birds remain to be quantified, it is clear that the pattern of wild migrations established by long‐term selection is not replicated. If the shorter migration distance of young captive‐bred birds has a physiological rather than a genetic basis, then their progeny may still exhibit wild‐type migration. However, as there is a considerable genetic component to migration, captive breeding management must respect migratory population structure as well as natal and release‐site fidelity.     

Early springs and breeding performance in two sympatric duck species with different migration strategies

The capacity of migratory species to adapt to climate change may depend on their migratory and reproductive strategies. For example, reproductive output is likely to be influenced by how well migration and nesting are timed to temporal patterns of food abundance, or by temperature variations during the brood rearing phase. Based on two decades (1988–2009) of waterfowl counts from a boreal catchment in southern Finland we assessed how variation in ice break‐up date affected nesting phenology and breeding success in two sympatric duck species, Mallard Anas platyrhynchos and Eurasian Teal Anas crecca. In Fennoscandia these species have similar breeding habitat requirements but differ in migration distance; Teal migrate roughly seven times as far as do Mallard. Annual ice break‐up date was used as a proxy of spring ‘earliness’ to test the potential effect of climate change on hatching timing and breeding performance. Both species were capable of adapting their nesting phenology, and bred earlier in years when spring was early. However, the interval from ice break‐up to hatching tended to be longer in early springs in both species, so that broods hatched relatively later than in late springs. Ice break‐up date did not appear to influence annual number of broods per pair or annual mean brood size in either species. Our study therefore does not suggest that breeding performance in Teal and Mallard is negatively affected by advancement of ice break‐up at the population level. However, both species showed a within‐season decline in brood size with increasing interval between ice break‐up and hatching. Our study therefore highlights a disparity between individuals in their capacity to adjust to ice break‐up date, late breeders having a lower breeding success than early breeders. We speculate that breeding success of both species may therefore decline should a consistent trend towards earlier springs occur.     

Density-dependent decline of breeding success in an introduced, increasing mute swan Cygus olor population

An increasing population of the mute swan Cygnus olor , was studied from its very establishment in 1976 until 1998. As the number of pairs increased, there was a decline in all production parameters, including the average number of clutches per pair, the average number of broods per clutch, and the average number of fledged young per brood. In a multiple regression analysis covering the whole breeding season, the number of pairs and the average number of clutches per pair explained 71% of the variation in the average number of fledglings per pair. During the brood season, the average number of fledglings per brood was an additionally important parameter in explaining fledgling production. Habitat quality seemed to affect breeding: in places occupied earlier more cygnets fledged from a clutch than in habitats inhabited later. The decreased production of young very likely reflects density-dependent effects on reproduction. This density dependence seems to operate on the breeding grounds, since winter harshness did not affect breeding success. Density-dependent processes started acting already when pairs were beginning to nest, and continued during the brood period. Density dependence has apparently not been detected at the pair stage in earlier studies of bird populations.     

Effects of extrinsic and intrinsic factors on breeding success in a long lived seabird

There is growing concern over the impacts of climate change on animal species. Many studies have demonstrated impacts of climate change at the population level, and density dependent effects of climate are frequently reported. However, there is an increasing recognition of the differential impact of such factors on individuals since there is marked variation in individual performance. We investigated the relationships between breeding success and environmental conditions (winter NAO and one year lagged winter NAO) and intrinsic effects (colony size, pair bond duration, past breeding success rate) in the northern fulmar Fulmarus glacialis , using data from a long-term study commenced in 1950. There was a negative trend in breeding success over time, and a negative relationship with winter NAO and lagged winter NAO, which themselves had shown positive increases over the study period. The effects of lagged winter NAO remained after accounting for the linear trend. There was no evidence of density dependence, with breeding success positively related to colony size. We found strong evidence that breeding success was negatively related to pair bond duration but positively related to past breeding success rate. There was also an interaction between these two intrinsic effects such that those pairs that had historically been successful maintained success with increasing pair bond duration, whereas less successful pairs showed a decline. The prediction that there would be a differential impact of extrinsic factors among pairs was supported by an interaction between past breeding success rate and winter NAO, such that pairs with low past success rate exhibited a sharp decline in breeding success with increasing winter NAO, whereas more successful pairs did not. It is critically important to understand interactions between extrinsic factors and individual heterogeneity since a differential impact on individuals will affect population structure, and hence population dynamics.     

Wintering areas predict age‐related breeding phenology in a migratory passerine bird

Understanding connections between breeding, stopover and wintering grounds for long‐distance migratory birds can provide important insight into factors influencing demography and the strength of carry‐over effects among various periods of the annual cycle. Using previously described, multi‐isotope (δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N, δ²H) feather isoscapes for Africa, we identified the most probable wintering areas for house martins Delichon urbica breeding at Badajoz in southwestern Spain. We identified two most‐probable wintering areas differing in isotopic signature in west Africa. We found that the probability to winter in the isotopic cluster two was related to age and sex of individuals. Specifically, experienced males (i.e. two years or older) winter in the isotopic cluster two with a greater probability than experienced females, whereas first‐year females winter in the isotopic cluster two with a greater probability than first‐year males. In addition, wintering area was correlated with breeding phenology, with individuals wintering in the isotopic cluster two initiating their clutches earlier than those wintering in the isotopic cluster one. For birds wintering in the isotopic cluster two, there was no relationship between age and clutch initiation date. In contrast, young birds wintering in the isotopic cluster one initiated their clutches earlier than experienced birds wintering in this area. There was no significant correlation between wintering area and clutch size or the number of fledglings produced. We hypothesize that the relationship among social status, population density and winter habitat quality should be the most important driver of the carry‐over effect we found for this population.     

Disentangling the effects of environmental conditions on wintering and breeding grounds on age‐specific survival rates in a trans‐Saharan migratory raptor

Migratory species are subject to environmental variability occurring on breeding and wintering grounds. Estimating the relative contribution of environmental factors experienced sequentially during breeding and wintering, and their potential interaction, to the variation of survival is crucial to predict population viability of migratory species. Here we investigated this issue for the Montagu's harrier Circus pygargus, a trans‐Saharan migrant. We analysed capture–recapture data from a 29‐year long monitoring of wing‐tagged offspring and adults at two study sites in France (Rochefort‐RO and Maine‐et‐Loire‐ML). The study period covers a climatic shift occurring in the Sahel with increasing rainfall following a period of droughts (Sahel greening). We found that harriers’ adult survival in RO (between 1988 and 2005) varied over time and was sensitive to the interaction between the amount of rainfall in the Sahel and the annual mean breeding success, two proxies of prey availability. The occurrence of adverse conditions on breeding and wintering grounds in the same year decreased survival from 0.70–0.77 to 0.48 ± 0.05. Juvenile survival in RO was slightly more sensitive to conditions in Europe than in the Sahel. Unexpectedly, lower survival rates were found in years with higher mean breeding success, suggesting compensatory density feedbacks may operate. By contrast, adult survival in ML, monitored between 1999 and 2017, was higher compared to RO (0.76 ± 0.03 versus 0.66 ± 0.02), remained constant and unaffected by any proxy of prey availability. This difference seems consistent with the fact that harriers in ML experienced better and especially less variable environmental conditions during breeding and wintering seasons compared to RO. Overall, we showed that survival of a migratory bird is sensitive to the level of variability in environmental conditions and that adverse conditions on wintering grounds can amplify the negative effects of conditions during the previous breeding season on birds’ survival.     

Flexibility and constraints in the molt schedule of long‐distance migratory shorebirds: causes and consequences

Molt is a major component of the annual cycle of birds, the timing and extent of which can affect body condition, survival, and future reproductive success through carry‐over effects. The way in which molt is fitted into the annual cycle seems to be a somewhat neglected area which is both of interest and of importance. Study of the causes of annual variation in the timing of molt and its potential consequence in long‐distance migratory birds was examined using the Curlew Sandpiper, Calidris ferruginea, as a model species. Using the maximum likelihood molt models of Underhill and Zucchini (1988, Ibis 130:358–372), the relationship between annual variability in the start dates of molt at the population level with conditions on the breeding area was explored. Adult males typically started early in years when temperature in June on the Arctic breeding grounds were high compared to cold years while adult females molted later in years of high breeding success and/or warm July temperature and vice versa. When molt started later, the duration was often shorter, indicating that late completion of molt might have fitness consequences, probably jeopardizing survival. Evidence of this was seen in the low body condition of birds in years when molt was completed late. The results indicate that these migratory shorebirds follow a fine‐tuned annual life cycle, and disturbances at a certain stage can alter next biological events through carry‐over effects.     

Demographic variation in timing and intensity of feather molt in migratory Fork‐tailed Flycatchers (Tyrannus s. savana)

Understanding the annual cycle of migratory birds is imperative for evaluating the evolution of life‐history strategies and developing effective conservation strategies. Yet, we still know little about the annual cycle of migratory birds that breed at south‐temperate latitudes of South America. We aged, sexed, and determined the progression and intensity of body, remige, and rectrix molt of migratory Fork‐tailed Flycatchers (Tyrannus s. savana) at breeding sites in southern South America and at wintering sites in northern South America. Molt of both body and flight feathers occurred primarily during the winter. In early winter, a similar proportion of young and adult flycatchers molted remiges and rectrices, but remige molt intensity (number of remiges molting) was greater and primary molt progression (mean primary feather molting) more advanced in adults. In late winter, remige molt intensity and primary molt progression did not differ between age groups. We found no difference between males and females either in the proportion of individuals molting in winter or in the intensity or progress of remige molt. Our results suggest that the nominate subspecies of Fork‐tailed Flycatcher undergoes one complete, annual molt on the wintering grounds, and represents the first comprehensive evaluation of molt timing of a migratory New World flycatcher that overwinters in the tropics. Given that breeding, molt, and migration represent three key events in the annual cycle of migratory birds, knowledge of the timing of these events is the first step toward understanding the possible tradeoffs migratory birds face throughout the year.     

Tropical winter habitat limits reproductive success on the temperate breeding grounds in a migratory bird

Identifying the factors that control population dynamics in migratory animals has been constrained by our inability to track individuals throughout the annual cycle. Using stable carbon isotopes, we show that the reproductive success of a long-distance migratory bird is influenced by the quality of habitat located thousands of kilometres away on tropical wintering grounds. For male American redstarts (Setophaga ruticilla), winter habitat quality influenced arrival date on the breeding grounds, which in turn affected key variables associated with reproduction, including the number of young fledged. Based on a winter-habitat model, females occupying high-quality winter habitat were predicted to produce more than two additional young and to fledge offspring up to a month earlier compared with females wintering in poor-quality habitat. Differences of this magnitude are highly important considering redstarts are single brooded, lay clutches of only three to five eggs and spend only two-and-a-half months on the breeding grounds. Results from this study indicate the importance of understanding how periods of the annual cycle interact for migratory animals. Continued loss of tropical wintering habitat could have negative effects on migratory populations in the following breeding season, minimizing density-dependent effects on the breeding grounds and leading to further population declines. If conservation efforts are to be successful, strategies must incorporate measures to protect all the habitats used during the entire annual cycle of migratory animals.     

Survivorship across the annual cycle of a migratory passerine,the willow flycatcher

Annual survivorship in migratory birds is a product of survival across the different periods of the annual cycle (i.e. breeding, wintering, and migration), and may vary substantially among these periods. Determining which periods have the highest mortality, and thus are potentially limiting a population, is important especially for species of conservation concern. To estimate survival probabilities of the willow flycatcher Empidonax traillii in each of the different periods, we combined demographic data from a 10‐year breeding season study with that from a 5‐year wintering grounds study. Estimates of annual apparent survival for breeding and wintering periods were nearly identical (65–66%), as were estimates of monthly apparent survival for both breeding and wintering stationary periods (98–99%). Because flycatchers spend at least half the year on the wintering grounds, overall apparent survivorship was lower (88%) on the wintering grounds than on the breeding grounds (97%). The migratory period had the highest mortality rate, accounting for 62% of the estimated annual mortality even though it comprises only one quarter or less of the annual cycle. The migratory period in the willow flycatcher and many other neotropical migrants is poorly understood, and further research is needed to identify sources of mortality during this crucial period.     

Eggs brought in from afar: Svalbard‐breeding pink‐footed geese can fly their eggs across the Barents Sea

Many Arctic‐breeding waterbirds are thought to bring nutrients for egg production from southern latitudes to allow early breeding. It has proved problematic to quantify the extent of such capital breeding and identify whether nutrients for egg production are brought in from nearby or from afar. Before reaching their breeding grounds on Svalbard, pink‐footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus fly ～ 1100 km across the Barents Sea from Norway. Using abdominal profile indexing (API) we scored body stores in individually marked geese just prior to migration from the northernmost staging area in Norway to Svalbard, followed by their breeding success on their non‐breeding grounds in autumn. In productive breeding years leading to a high (> 13.8%) proportion of juveniles in the autumn population, there was a positive relationship between female API and number of young produced, suggesting that the geese are at least partial capital breeders. Moreover, focusing on the geographic origin of proteins used in egg synthesis and measuring nitrogen stable isotope ratios in pink‐footed geese's eggs and food sources in Norway and Svalbard, we identified that capital breeding in this species is ～ 50% on average but may potentially amount to as much as 100%, notably in females laying early. About 60% of this protein capital is carried in well‐developed follicles across the Barents Sea, the remainder likely being stored in muscle tissues. Conditions on the wintering grounds and migratory stopover sites can have profound effects on an individual's fitness but the here presented link between the use of migratory stopover sites and breeding performance is particularly noteworthy. Apparently, some individuals accept the putative costs of carrying body stores over large distances to the breeding grounds. The data also highlights considerable variation in the reliance on capital for breeding, suggesting substantial individual scope to adjust breeding strategy to changing environmental conditions.     

Crosswise migration by Yellow Warblers,Nearctic‐Neotropical passerine migrants

Yellow Warblers (Setophaga petechia) are abundant breeding birds in North America, but their migratory and non‐breeding biology remain poorly understood. Studies where genetic and isotopic techniques were used identified parallel migration systems and longitudinal segregation among eastern‐ and western‐breeding populations of Yellow Warblers in North America, but these techniques have low spatial resolution. During the 2015 breeding season, we tagged male Yellow Warblers breeding in Maine (N = 10) and Wisconsin (N = 10) with light‐level geolocators to elucidate fine‐scale migratory connectivity within the eastern haplotype of this species and determine fall migration timing, routes, and wintering locations. We recovered seven of 20 geolocators (35%), including four in Maine and three in Wisconsin. The mean duration of fall migration was 49 d with departure from breeding areas in late August and early September and arrival in wintering areas in mid‐October. Most individuals crossed the Gulf of Mexico to Central America before completing the final eastward leg of their migration to northern South America. Yellow Warblers breeding in Maine wintered in north‐central Colombia, west of those breeding in Wisconsin that wintered in Venezuela and the border region between Brazil, Colombia, and Venezuela. Our results provide an example of crosswise migration, where the more easterly breeding population wintered farther west than the more westerly breeding population (and vice versa), a seldom‐documented phenomenon in birds. Our results confirm earlier work demonstrating that the eastern haplotype of northern Yellow Warblers winters in northern South America, and provide novel information about migratory strategies, timing, and wintering locations of birds from two different populations.     

Comparing the seasonal survival of resident and migratory oystercatchers: carry‐over effects of habitat quality and weather conditions

Events happening in one season can affect life‐history traits at (the) subsequent season(s) by carry‐over effects. Wintering conditions are known to affect breeding success, but few studies have investigated carry‐over effects on survival. The Eurasian oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus is a coastal wader with sedentary populations at temperate sites and migratory populations in northern breeding grounds of Europe. We pooled continental European ringing‐recovery datasets from 1975 to 2000 to estimate winter and summer survival rates of migrant and resident populations and to investigate long‐term effects of winter habitat changes. During mild climatic periods, adults of both migratory and resident populations exhibited survival rates 2% lower in summer than in winter. Severe winters reduced survival rates (down to 25% reduction) and were often followed by a decline in survival during the following summer, via short‐term carry‐over effects. Habitat changes in the Dutch wintering grounds caused a reduction in food stocks, leading to reduced survival rates, particularly in young birds. Therefore, wintering habitat changes resulted in long‐term (>10 years) 8.7 and 9.4% decrease in adult annual survival of migrant and resident populations respectively. Studying the impact of carry‐over effects is crucial for understanding the life history of migratory birds and the development of conservation measures.     

High within‐winter and annual survival rates in a declining Afro‐Palaearctic migratory bird suggest that wintering conditions do not limit populations

For migratory birds, it is necessary to estimate annual and overwinter survival rates, identify factors that influence survival, and assess whether survival varies with age and sex if we are to understand population dynamics and thus inform conservation. This study is one of the first to document overwinter and annual survival from the wintering grounds of a declining Afro‐Palaearctic migrant bird, the Whinchat Saxicola rubetra. We monitored a population of marked individuals for which dispersal was low and detectability was high, allowing accurate estimates of survival. Annual survival was at least 52% and did not differ significantly across demographic groups or with habitat characteristics or residency time in the previous winter. Overwinter survival was very high and monthly survival at least 98% at some sites. Although winter residency varied spatially and with age, lower residency did not correlate with reduced annual survival, suggesting occupancy of multiple wintering sites rather than higher winter mortality of individuals with shorter residency. Our results suggest that mortality occurs primarily outside the wintering period, probably during migration, and that wintering conditions have minimal influence on survival. The similarity between survival rates for all age and sex classes when measured on the wintering grounds implies that any difference in survival with age or sex occurs only during the first migration or during the post‐fledging stage, and that selection of wintering habitat, or territory quality, makes little difference to survival in Whinchats. Our findings suggest that the wintering grounds do not limit populations as much as the migratory and breeding stages, with implications for the conservation of declining Afro‐Palaearctic migrants more widely.