物种受威胁状况评估:研究进展与中国的案例

评估物种濒危等级,确定物种保护优先序,是生物多样性保护的一项重要工作。通过不断的修订,IUCN红色名录濒危等级标准已经趋于完善。但是,目前人们还在探索在无法获得物种的种群数量、生境、生活史数据时,如何寻找替代指标评估物种濒危等级。我们综述了国内外物种濒危状况研究的进展,提出了结合物种分布区、生活史、生态功能、人为干扰和特殊利用价值的评估物种受威胁状况的方法,并以此方法评估了中国陆生脊椎动物的生存状况。结果表明,列入灭绝级的物种有5个,功能性灭绝级的物种有30个,濒危级的物种有343个,受胁级的物种有459个,关注级的物种有439个,无危级的物种有1,032个。     

The quillworts (Isoetes) of India: distribution, endemism and species radiation

The genus Isoetes L. in India is represented by 14species, of which eight species are recognized as being local endemics [confinedto one particular phyto-geographical division (PGD)] while the remaining sixoccur in more than one PGD and are described as endemic to a wider range. Thelocal endemic species are Isoetes dixitei,Isoetes panchganiensis and Isoetessahyadriensis in Western Ghats region; Isoetespantii, Isoetes bilaspurensis, Isoetesreticulata and Isoetes tuberculata inChotanagpur Malwa Vindhya Plateau and Isoetes debii innortheastern India. The wider endemic species are Isoetespanchananii, Isoetes sampathkumaranii,Isoetes rajasthanensis, Isoetesmahadevensis, Isoetes indica andIsoetes coromandelina. Our studies on the patterns ofendemism suggest that the radiation of quillworts advanced from dry lowlandareas to the rainy uplands and mountains. Isoetescoromandelina is the first Indian quillwort to colonize in lowlandsof the coastal zone (Coromandel), from where it spread to different parts of thesub-continent and gave rise to new species. Thus this species is a key Indianspecies which has played an important role in the radiation of quillwort in thecountry and appeared as the connecting link among the quillwort flora of variousPGDs. The centres of diversity for almost all the presently known Indianquillworts species are recognized.     

Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling

Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.     

Ecological niche modelling as an exploratory tool for identifying species limits: an example based on Mexican muroid rodents

Niche conservatism theory suggests that recently diverged sister species share the same ecological niche. However, if the ecological niche evolves as part of the speciation process, the ecological pattern could be useful for recognizing cryptic species. In a broad sense systematists agree that the niche characters could be used for species differentiation. However, to date such characters have been ignored. We used the genetic algorithm for rule‐set production for modelling the ecological niche as a means of inferring ecological divergence in allopatric populations of muroid rodents for which taxonomic identity is uncertain. Our results show that niche differentiation is significant in most of the identified phylogroups. The differentiation is likely associated with natural evolutionary units, which can be identified by applying species concepts based on phylogenetic and ecological patterns (e.g. phylogenetic, cohesive, evolutionary). Even so, the role of the niche partition within phylogenetic reconstruction may be a limited one.     

The distribution of an invasive fish species is highly affected by the presence of native fish species: evidence based on species distribution modelling

Topmouth gudgeon (Pseudorasbora parva) is one of the most invasive aquatic fish species in Europe and causes adverse effects to ecosystem structure and functioning. Knowledge and understanding of the species’ interactions with the environment and with native fish are important to stop and prevent the further spread of the species. Creating species distribution models is a useful technique to determine which factors influence the occurrence and abundance of a species. We applied three different modelling techniques: general additive models, random forests and fuzzy habitat suitability modelling (FHSM) to assess the habitat suitability of topmouth gudgeon. The former two techniques indicated that the abundance of native fish (i.e. biotic variables) was more important than environmental variables when determining the abundance of topmouth gudgeon in Flanders (Belgium). Bitterling (Rhodeus amarus), stone loach (Barbatula barbatula), three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) and predator abundance were selected as the most important biotic variables and implemented in the FHSM to investigate species interactions. Depending on the preferred food source and spawning behaviour, either coexistence or interspecific competition can occur with bitterling, stone loach and three-spined stickleback. In contrast, the presence of predators clearly had a top down effect on topmouth gudgeon abundance. These findings could be applied as a biological control measure and implemented in conservation strategies in order to reduce the abundance of earlier established populations of topmouth gudgeon.     

Patterns of diversity,endemism and conservation: an example with Mexican species of Ternstroemiaceae Mirb. ex DC. (Tricolpates: Ericales)

The Ternstroemiaceae is a family of vascular plants with many taxonomic problems, basically in the delimitation of some of its species. Little is known about its world distribution and about the real state of conservation of its species. An analysis of the distribution patterns of the Mexican species was undertaken to provide information about the present status of species and possible conservation areas. Also, an analysis of the species richness, endemism centres, extension and location of the areas occupied by these species with a 1:50000 chart index was made. Finally, we propose some of the species of this family to be included in the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species and in the next Mexican Norma Oficial Mexicana 059.     

Expression of engrailed-family genes in the jumping bristletail and discussion on the primitive pattern of insect segmentation

It has been shown that segmentation in the short-germ insects proceeds by a two-step mechanism. The anterior region is simultaneously segmented in a manner similar to that in Drosophila, which is apparently unique to insects, and the rest of the posterior region is segmented sequentially by a mechanism involving a segmentation clock, which is derived from the common ancestor of arthropods. In order to propose the evolutionary scenario of insect segmentation, we examined segmentation in the jumping bristletail, the basalmost extant insect. Using probes for engrailed-family genes for in situ hybridization, we found no sign of simultaneous segmentation in the anterior region of the jumping bristletail embryos. All segments except the anteriormost segment are formed sequentially. This condition shown in the jumping bristletail embryos may represent the primitive pattern of insect segmentation. The intercalating formation of the intercalary segment is assumed to be a synapomorphic trait shared among all insects after the branching of the jumping bristletail.     

Challenges and perspectives for species distribution modelling in the neotropics

The workshop 'Species distribution models: applications, challenges and perspectives' held at Belo Horizonte (Brazil), 29-30 August 2011, aimed to review the state-of-the-art in species distribution modelling (SDM) in the neotropical realm. It brought together researchers in ecology, evolution, biogeography and conservation, with different backgrounds and research interests. The application of SDM in the megadiverse neotropics-where data on species occurrences are scarce-presents several challenges, involving acknowledging the limitations imposed by data quality, including surveys as an integral part of SDM studies, and designing the analyses in accordance with the question investigated. Specific solutions were discussed, and a code of good practice in SDM studies and related field surveys was drafted.     

Integrating species distribution models (SDMs) and phylogeography for two species of Alpine Primula

The major intention of the present study was to investigate whether an approach combining the use of niche-based palaeodistribution modeling and phylo-geography would support or modify hypotheses about the Quaternary distributional history derived from phylogeographic methods alone. Our study system comprised two closely related species of Alpine Primula. We used species distribution models based on the extant distribution of the species and last glacial maximum (LGM) climate models to predict the distribution of the two species during the LGM. Phylogeographic data were generated using amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs). In Primula hirsuta, models of past distribution and phylogeographic data are partly congruent and support the hypothesis of widespread nunatak survival in the Central Alps. Species distribution models (SDMs) allowed us to differentiate between alpine regions that harbor potential nunatak areas and regions that have been colonized from other areas. SDMs revealed that diversity is a good indicator for nunataks, while rarity is a good indicator for peripheral relict populations that were not source for the recolonization of the inner Alps. In P. daonensis, palaeo-distribution models and phylogeographic data are incongruent. Besides the uncertainty inherent to this type of modeling approach (e.g., relatively coarse 1-km grain size), disagreement of models and data may partly be caused by shifts of ecological niche in both species. Nevertheless, we demonstrate that the combination of palaeo-distribution modeling with phylogeographical approaches provides a more differentiated picture of the distributional history of species and partly supports (P. hirsuta) and partly modifies (P. daonensis and P. hirsuta) hypotheses of Quaternary distributional history. Some of the refugial area indicated by palaeodistribution models could not have been identified with phylogeographic data.     

Relative importance of factors controlling the success of Oxalis acetosella: an example of linear modelling in ecological research

An ecological hypothesis concerning the relative importance of factors governing the success of Oxalis acetosella on mesic upland forest sites in southern Finland was formulated and tested statistically by means of a multivariate linear model. The data consisted of a stratified random sample of 40 plots with biological measurements and associated observations on environmental variables. The covariance matrix between the incorporated variables was computed and the model parameters were estimated using the method of maximum likelihood provided by the computer programme LISREL V. The results supported the hypothesis based on previous observations and experiments: Oxalis acetosella benefits from a high nutrient level of the soil, but is decisively dependent on the shelter provided by the tree stand. When both spruce stands and well-lit pine stands on mesic and relatively rich forest sites were considered simultaneously, only a weak correlation was found between light availability and site fertility. Accordingly, the presumed value of Oxalis acetosella as an indicator of site fertility appears to be questionable. The adequacy of linear modelling in an ecological context is discussed. The kind of models applied in this study have only a limited application range in non-experimental ecological research. However, linear modelling may contribute to solving particular ecological problems in cases where short environmental gradients are considered so that nonlinearity is not a dominant feature.     

Efficient modelling of foliage distribution and crown dynamics in monolayer tree species

In response to the computational limitations of individual leaf-based tree growth models, this article presents a new approach for the efficient characterisation of the spatial distribution of foliage in monolayered trees in terms of 2D foliage surfaces. Much like the recently introduced 3D leaf area density, this concept accommodates local crown plasticity, which is a common weak point in large-scale growth models. Recognizing phototropism as the predominant driver of spatial crown expansion, we define the local light gradient on foliage surfaces. We consider the partial differential equation describing the evolution of a curve expanding along the light gradient and present an explicit solution. The article concludes with an illustration of the incorporation of foliage surfaces in a simple tree growth model for European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.), and discusses perspectives for applications in functional-structural models.     

The uncertain nature of absences and their importance in species distribution modelling

Species distribution models (SDM) are commonly used to obtain hypotheses on either the realized or the potential distribution of species. The reliability and meaning of these hypotheses depends on the kind of absences included in the training data, the variables used as predictors and the methods employed to parameterize the models. Information about the absence of species from certain localities is usually lacking, so pseudo‐absences are often incorporated to the training data. We explore the effect of using different kinds of pseudo‐absences on SDM results. To do this, we use presence information on Aphodius bonvouloiri, a dung beetle species of well‐known distribution. We incorporate different types of pseudo‐absences to create different sets of training data that account for absences of methodological (i.e. false absences), contingent and environmental origin. We used these datasets to calibrate SDMs with GAMs as modelling technique and climatic variables as predictors, and compare these results with geographical representations of the potential and realized distribution of the species created independently. Our results confirm the importance of the kind of absences in determining the aspect of species distribution identified through SDM. Estimations of the potential distribution require absences located farther apart in the geographic and/or environmental space than estimations of the realized distribution. Methodological absences produce overall bad models, and absences that are too far from the presence points in either the environmental or the geographic space may not be informative, yielding important overestimations. GLMs and Artificial Neural Networks yielded similar results. Synthetic discrimination measures such as the Area Under the Receiver Characteristic Curve (AUC) must be interpreted with caution, as they can produce misleading comparative results. Instead, the joint examination of ommission and comission errors provides a better understanding of the reliability of SDM results.     

Prediction of plant species distribution in lowland river valleys in Belgium: modelling species response to site conditions

In ecological modelling, limitations in data and their applicability for predictive modelling are more rule than exception. Often modelling has to be performed on sub-optimal data, as explicit and controlled collection of (more) appropriate data would not be feasible. An example of predictive ecological modelling is given with application of generalized additive and generalized linear models fitted to presence–absence records of plant species and site condition data from four nutrient-poor Flemish lowland valleys. Standard regression procedures are used for modelling, although explanatory and response data do not meet all the assumptions implicit in these procedures. Data were non-randomly collected and are spatially autocorrelated; model residuals retain part of that correlation. The scale of most site-condition records does not match the scale of the response variable (species distribution). Hence, interpolated and up-scaled explanatory variables are used. Data are aggregated from distinct phytogeographical regions to allow for generalized models, applicable to a wider population of river valleys in the same region. Nevertheless, ecologically sound models are obtained, which predict well the distribution of most plant species for the Flemish river valleys considered.     

Eimeria species (Apicomplexa: Eimeriidae) infecting Eliomys quercinus in an Alpine habitat

Coccidian parasites were detected in an Alpine population of the garden dormouse (Eliomys quercinus), and 55-82% of the fecal samples collected during a two-year study (2000 and 2002) contained one or two eimerian species. We report the presence of Eimeria myoxi and confirm for the first time the presence of Eimeria melanuri in the garden dormouse. These Eimeria species can be considered common parasites of the garden dormouse and the Asian garden dormouse. The high prevalence might be due to group hibernation by the dormice.