CO_2失汇与北半球中高纬度陆地生态系统的碳汇

化石燃料消耗及热带林破坏导致约 7.0 Pg C· a- 1 (1Pg=10 9t)的 CO2 向大气排放 ,其中 3.0～ 3.4Pg C·a- 1 的 CO2 被用于大气 CO2 浓度的升高 ,约 2 .0 Pg C· a- 1 的 CO2 被海洋吸收 ,而陆地生物圈被认为是 CO2 净吸收与净排放基本达到平衡。因此 ,在人工源 CO2 中 ,尚有 1.6～ 2 .0 Pg C· a- 1的 CO2 去向不明。这就是著名的 CO2 失汇之谜。大气成分监测、CO2 通量测定以及模型模拟等方面的研究都表明 ,北半球陆地生态系统是一个重要的碳汇 ,但其值存在很大的不确定性 ,且具有较大的时空变化。全球温暖化、CO2 施肥效应 ,氮和磷沉降的增加以及人工植被的扩大是形成碳汇的主要因素。为减少碳汇估计值的不确定性 ,除加强长期定位监测、改良现有估测模型外 ,重视研究土壤圈在碳循环中的作用至关重要     

广州市农作物系统与大气的CO2交换

在广泛收集资料和实验分析的基础上,研究了广州市各种农作物系统与大气CO2交换.分析了各种农作物系统净生产力吸收CO2的能力和碳汇功能大小.结果表明:2005年广州市8种农作物系统作物净生产力吸收CO2 4 032 366t·a-1,其土壤CO2排放3981753t·a-1,吸收大于排放,对大气CO2而言,整个农作物系统是一个弱的碳汇;水稻、甘蔗、木薯和果用瓜4种连作或高杆作物系统每年作物净生产力吸收CO2量大于土壤CO2的排放量,系统具有较大的碳汇功能,花生、大豆、花卉和蔬菜4种矮杆作物系统每年作物净生产力吸收CO2量小于土壤CO2的排放量,系统起着碳源作用;果实或经济产量生长在地上部分的作物其单位面积吸收CO2能力比果实(块根)生长在地下的作物大;除花生在生育期间生物量吸收CO2量少于同期土壤排放以外,其余7种作物在生育期间生物量吸收CO2的量大于同期土壤排放,大多数农作物在生育期间具有碳汇功能,在撂荒期才体现碳源作用.     

洞庭湖白沙洲4种植被系统与大气中碳素交换

近年来由于气候变化,极端天气现象及其相应的自然灾害的频繁发生,致使人类面临严峻的挑战,全球环境问题已备受瞩目。湿地碳循环在全球气候变化中具有不可忽视的作用,研究湿地系统与大气中碳素的交换,有助于深入了解湿地生态系统对大气环境的影响。在生物量和土壤温室气体排放测定的基础上,对洞庭湖白沙洲湿地4种主要植被系统与大气碳素交换进行研究,结果表明:杨树人工林、芦苇和苔草3种植被系统净生产力吸收大气中碳量分别为9.88、6.83.thm-.2a-1和4.07.thm-.2a-1,土壤排放碳量(包括CH4中的碳素)分别为3.08、2.79.thm-.2a-1和2.80t.hm-.2a-1,3种植被系统每年净吸收大气中的碳6.80、4.07t.hm-.2a-1和1.27t.hm-.2a-1,都是大气CO2的汇;黑藻与竹叶眼子菜混交群落净生产力吸收大气碳1.23.thm-.2a-1,土壤排放的碳1.32t.hm-.2a-1,该系统每年向大气净排放0.09t.hm-.2a-1,是一个弱的CO2排放源;将CH4温室效应是CO2的21倍折算成CO2量,杨树林土壤排放CO2量(包括CH4折算成CO2量)为16.19t.hm-.2a-1,比植被净生产力吸收的少16.64t.hm-.2a-1,对大气温室效应而言,该系统是温室气体的汇;芦苇、苔草以及黑藻与竹叶眼子菜混交群落土壤排放CO2量(包括CH4折算成CO2量)分别是43.68、39.19t.hm-.2a-1和32.22t.hm-.2a-1,比植被净生产力吸收的还多20.60、24.27.thm-.2a-1和27.71.thm-.2a-1,对大气温室效应而言,这3种湿地植被系统都是温室气体排放源。     

陆地生态系统碳源与碳汇及其影响机制研究进展

全球碳循环研究中发现,目前已知碳源与碳汇不能达到平衡。存在一个很大的碳失汇。大气、海洋和陆地生态系统是人工源CO2的3个可能的容纳汇,其中陆地生态系统最复杂、最具不确定性,因此陆地生态系统碳源与碳汇研究是全球碳循环研究的核心问题之一。大气成分监测、CO2通量测定、森林资源清查以及模型模拟等方面的研究都表明,CO2施肥效应、氮沉降增加、污染、全球气候变化以及土地利用变化,是影响陆地生态系统碳储量的主要生态机制,但不确定在过去的10～100年以及未来哪一种机制起最主要的作用。     

CO2浓度变化和气候变化对中国陆地生态系统净初级生产力及其平衡的影响

本文应用陆地生态系统模型(TEM,4.0)对中国陆地生态系统在目前气候下的净初级生产力,以及在CO2浓度增加和气候变化后的净初级生产力的变化进行了预测。气候变化模型采用三种大气环流模型生成,即：GISS、GFDL和OSU模型。在当前气候条件和CO2浓度(312.5×10-6)下,TEM模型预测中国陆地生态净初级生产力为3,653TgC·a-1(1012gC·a-1)。温带常绿阔叶林是生产力最高的生物区,占有中国净初级生产力的最大比例。NPP的空间格局主要与降水量和温度的空间分布相关联。 中国陆地生态系统的年净初级生产力对CO2浓度和气候的变化敏感。在陆地区域尺度上,其年净初级生产力仅在CO2浓度上升至519×10-6的情况下可增加6.0％(219TgC·a-1)。在气候变化而无CO2浓度变化的条件下,净初级生产力的响应在GISS气候方案下表现为1.5％(54.8TgC·a-1)的降低,在GFDL-q气候方案下表现为8.4％(306.9TgC·a-1)的增加。在气候和CO2浓度均发生变化的情况下,净初级生产力有较大程度的增加,在GISS气候方案下的增加比例为18.7％(683TgC·a-1),在GFDL-q气候方案下增加23.3％(851TgC·a-1)。在空间特征方面,年净初级生产力对气候和CO2浓度变化的响应方式在一个GCM气候方案下变化十分显著。由于三个大气环流模型的不同,使得净初级生产力地理分布的反应格局产生较大差异。CO2浓度升高和气候变化的耦合作用对中国陆地生态系统净初级生产力将产生重大影响。     

开放式空气CO2浓度增高影响稻田-大气CO2净交换的静态暗箱法观测研究

首先介绍静态暗箱法 气相色谱法观测确定陆地生态系统地 气CO2 净交换通量的基本原理和方法 ,然后讨论在开放式空气CO2 增加 (FACE)试验中应用该原理和方法观测研究大气CO2 浓度升高对稻田生态系统 大气CO2 净交换通量的影响 .因缺乏必要参数的实际观测值 ,本文只能根据暗箱观测值计算CO2 净交换通量的最小取值NEEmin.NEEmin计算结果表明 ,在插秧 1个月之后的水稻生长期内 ,大气CO2浓度升高 2 0 0± 4 0 μmol·mol-1使稻田生态系统对大气CO2 的净吸收约为对照的 3倍 .为根据暗箱观测准确确定NEE ,还必须在FACE和对照条件下观测水稻植株的暗维持呼吸系数、地上生物量及根冠比动态 .     

广州市红树林和滩涂湿地生态系统与大气二氧化碳交换

在生物量调查和土壤温室气体排放量测定基础上,对广州市红树林和滩涂湿地生态系统与大气CO₂交换进行研究,分析湿地植被净生产力吸收CO₂的能力和不同积水状态下(常年积水、间歇积水、无积水)湿地碳汇功能.结果表明:红树林湿地植被净生产力吸收CO₂ 33.74 t·hm^-2·a^-1,土壤排放CO₂(包括CH₄折算成CO₂的温室效应量)12.26 t·hm^-2·a^-1,湿地每年净吸收大气CO₂ 21.48 t·hm^-2,说明红树林湿地是一个强的碳汇;滩涂湿地植被净生产力吸收CO₂ 8.54 t·hm^-2·a^-1,土壤排放CO₂ 5.88 t·hm^-2·a^-1,排放CH₄ 0.19 t·hm^-2·a^-1,若按碳素折算,湿地每年吸收大气中碳素2.33 t·hm^-2,土壤排放碳素1.74 t·hm^-2包括（CH₄中的碳),系统净固定碳0.59 t·hm^-2,说明滩涂湿地是一个弱的碳汇,若将CH₄的温室效应折算成CO₂量,则土壤排放CO₂ 9.78 t·hm^-2·a^-1,排放比吸收多1.24 t·hm^-2·a^-1,对大气温室效应而言,滩涂湿地是一个弱碳源;常年积水下排放的温室气体主要是CH₄,无积水下排放的温室气体主要是CO₂;常年积水湿地碳汇功能最大,无积水湿地碳汇功能最小.     

1981—2000年中国陆地生态系统碳通量的年际变化

应用一个生物地球化学模型(CEVSA)估算了中国陆地净初级生产力(NPP)、土壤异养呼吸(HR)和净生态系统生产力(NEP)在1981—1998年期间对气候和大气CO2浓度变化的动态响应。结果显示,全国NPP总量波动于2．89—3．37Gt／a之间,平均值为3．09Gt C／a,年平均增长趋势约为0．32％。HR总量变化范围为2．89—3．21Gt C／a,平均值为3．02Gt C／a,年均增长0．40％。NEP总量变动于-0．32和0．25Gt C／a之间,在统计上没有明显的年际变化趋势。在研究时段内,年平均NEP约为0．07Gt C／a,表明中国陆地生态系统在气候与大气CO2浓度变化的条件下吸收了碳,为碳汇,总的吸收量为1．22Gt C,约占全球碳吸收总量的10％,与同期内美国由大气CO2和气候变化所产生的碳吸收量大致相当。尽管由于较高的年际变率,NEP在统计上没有明显的变化趋势,但NPP的增长率低于HR的增长率,说明在研究时段内,中国陆地生态系统的吸碳能力由于气候变化降低了。全国大多数地区年平均NEP接近零,明显的NEP正值区(即碳汇)出现在东北平原、西藏东南部和黄淮平原等地区,而大小兴安岭、黄土高原和云贵高原等地区NEP为负值(即碳源)。研究认为,1981～1998年期间中国气候温暖、干旱,因此估算的NEP可能低于其他时段。如果气候进入一个比较湿润的时期,碳吸收量可显著增加,但若当前干旱和暖化趋势以此为继,中国的NEP可能会变成一个负值。     

西双版纳地区稻田CO2排放通量

采用静态暗箱-气相色谱法对云南西双版纳地区单季稻田CO2排放及氮肥、水热因子对CO2排放的影响进行田间原位观测研究.试验设3个氮肥水平处理:N0(0 kg N hm-2)、N150(150 kg N hm-2)和N300(300 kg N hm-2).结果表明,受一天温度变化的影响,西双版纳地区稻田生态系统呼吸日变化为单峰型,其最大值出现在11:00～13:00之间,最小值出现在凌晨.稻田土壤呼吸呈明显的季节变化趋势,土壤呼吸平均速率为水稻收获后休闲季节>种植前休闲季节>水稻生长季节,差异达到1%显著水平.不同季节影响土壤呼吸的环境因子不同.土壤水分含量低于34%时,土壤呼吸速率与土壤含水量呈正相关,达5%显著水平;地面淹水时,土壤呼吸速率与淹水深度呈1%极显著负相关;水分含量高于38%时,土壤呼吸速率与温度呈极显著指数相关.长期考虑(整个生长季节),氮肥的施用对稻田土壤呼吸和生态系统呼吸无影响;N300处理抑制植株呼吸作用,单位生物量呼吸速率下降.氮肥的施用对土壤呼吸有短期影响,氮肥用量增加,土壤呼吸速率增加.计算得出N0、N150和N300处理年土壤呼吸量分别为6.27、6.31 t C hm-2 a-1和5.89 t C hm-2 a-1;年净固定大气中CO2-C分别为1.41、2.22 t C hm-2 a-1和1 11 t C hm-2 a-1,表明西双版纳稻田生态系统是碳汇.     

数据处理方法不确定性对CO_2通量组分估算的影响

基于中国陆地生态系统通量观测研究网络(ChinaFLUX)4个站点(2个森林站和2个草地站)的涡度相关通量观测资料,分析了CO2通量数据处理过程中异常值剔除参数设置、夜间摩擦风速(u*)临界值(u*c)确定及数据插补模型选择对CO2通量组分估算的影响.结果表明:3种数据处理方法均对净生态系统碳交换量(NEE)年总量估算有显著影响,其中u*c确定是影响NEE估算的重要因子;异常值剔除、u*c确定及数据插补模型选择导致NEE年总量估算偏差分别为0.62～21.31 g C.m-2.a-1(0.84%～65.31%)、4.06～30.28 g C.m-2.a-1(3.76%～21.58%)和0.69～27.73 g C.m-2.a-1(0.23%～55.62%),草地生态系统NEE估算对数据处理方法参数设置更敏感;数据处理方法不确定性引起的总生态系统碳交换量和生态系统呼吸年总量估算相对偏差分别为3.88%～11.41%和6.45%～24.91%.     

Terrestrial carbon sinks in China and around the world and their contribution to carbon neutrality

Enhancing the terrestrial ecosystem carbon sink (referred to as terrestrial C sink) is an important way to slow down the continuous increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration and to achieve carbon neutrality target. To better understand the characteristics of terrestrial C sinks and their contribution to carbon neutrality, this review summarizes major progress in terrestrial C budget researches during the past decades, clarifies spatial patterns and drivers of terrestrial C sources and sinks in China and around the world, and examines the role of terrestrial C sinks in achieving carbon neutrality target. According to recent studies, the global terrestrial C sink has been increasing from a source of (?0.2±0.9) Pg C yr^?1 (1 Pg=10¹⁵ g) in the 1960s to a sink of (1.9±1.1) Pg C yr^?1 in the 2010s. By synthesizing the published data, we estimate terrestrial C sink of 0.20–0.25 Pg C yr^?1 in China during the past decades, and predict it to be 0.15–0.52 Pg C yr^?1 by 2060. The terrestrial C sinks are mainly located in the mid- and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, while tropical regions act as a weak C sink or source. The C balance differs much among ecosystem types: forest is the major C sink; shrubland, wetland and farmland soil act as C sinks; and whether the grassland functions as C sink or source remains unclear. Desert might be a C sink, but the magnitude and the associated mechanisms are still controversial. Elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration, nitrogen deposition, climate change, and land cover change are the main drivers of terrestrial C sinks, while other factors such as fires and aerosols would also affect ecosystem C balance. The driving factors of terrestrial C sink differ among regions. Elevated CO₂ concentration and climate change are major drivers of the C sinks in North America and Europe, while afforestation and ecological restoration are additionally important forcing factors of terrestrial C sinks in China. For future studies, we recommend the necessity for intensive and long term ecosystem C monitoring over broad geographic scale to improve terrestrial biosphere models for accurately evaluating terrestrial C budget and its dynamics under various climate change and policy scenarios.

     

The effects of land use and climate change on the carbon cycle of Europe over the past 500 years

The long residence time of carbon in forests and soils means that both the current state and future behavior of the terrestrial biosphere are influenced by past variability in climate and anthropogenic land use. Over the last half‐millennium, European terrestrial ecosystems were affected by the cool temperatures of the Little Ice Age, rising CO₂ concentrations, and human induced deforestation and land abandonment. To quantify the importance of these processes, we performed a series of simulations with the LPJ dynamic vegetation model driven by reconstructed climate, land use, and CO₂ concentrations. Although land use change was the major control on the carbon inventory of Europe over the last 500 years, the current state of the terrestrial biosphere is largely controlled by land use change during the past century. Between 1500 and 2000, climate variability led to temporary sequestration events of up to 3 Pg, whereas increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations during the 20th century led to an increase in carbon storage of up to 15 Pg. Anthropogenic land use caused between 25 Pg of carbon emissions and 5 Pg of uptake over the same time period, depending on the historical and spatial pattern of past land use and the timing of the reversal from deforestation to afforestation during the last two centuries. None of the currently existing anthropogenic land use change datasets adequately capture the timing of the forest transition in most European countries as recorded in historical observations. Despite considerable uncertainty, our scenarios indicate that with limited management, extant European forests have the potential to absorb between 5 and 12 Pg of carbon at the present day.     

Higher than expected CO2 fertilization inferred from leaf to global observations

Several lines of evidence point to an increase in the activity of the terrestrial biosphere over recent decades, impacting the global net land carbon sink (NLS) and its control on the growth of atmospheric carbon dioxide (c_a). Global terrestrial gross primary production (GPP)—the rate of carbon fixation by photosynthesis—is estimated to have risen by (31 ± 5)% since 1900, but the relative contributions of different putative drivers to this increase are not well known. Here we identify the rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration as the dominant driver. We reconcile leaf‐level and global atmospheric constraints on trends in modeled biospheric activity to reveal a global CO₂ fertilization effect on photosynthesis of 30% since 1900, or 47% for a doubling of c_a above the pre‐industrial level. Our historic value is nearly twice as high as current estimates (17 ± 4)% that do not use the full range of available constraints. Consequently, under a future low‐emission scenario, we project a land carbon sink (174 PgC, 2006–2099) that is 57 PgC larger than if a lower CO₂ fertilization effect comparable with current estimates is assumed. These findings suggest a larger beneficial role of the land carbon sink in modulating future excess anthropogenic CO₂ consistent with the target of the Paris Agreement to stay below 2°C warming, and underscore the importance of preserving terrestrial carbon sinks.     

Is carbon within the global terrestrial biosphere becoming more oxidized? Implications for trends in atmospheric O2

Measurements of atmospheric O₂ and CO₂ concentrations serve as a widely used means to partition global land and ocean carbon sinks. Interpretation of these measurements has assumed that the terrestrial biosphere contributes to changing O₂ levels by either expanding or contracting in size, and thus serving as either a carbon sink or source (and conversely as either an oxygen source or sink). Here, we show how changes in atmospheric O₂ can also occur if carbon within the terrestrial biosphere becomes more reduced or more oxidized, even with a constant carbon pool. At a global scale, we hypothesize that increasing levels of disturbance within many biomes has favored plant functional types with lower oxidative ratios and that this has caused carbon within the terrestrial biosphere to become increasingly more oxidized over a period of decades. Accounting for this mechanism in the global atmospheric O₂ budget may require a small increase in the size of the land carbon sink. In a scenario based on the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach model, a cumulative decrease in the oxidative ratio of net primary production (NPP) (moles of O₂ produced per mole of CO₂ fixed in NPP) by 0.01 over a period of 100 years would create an O₂ disequilibrium of 0.0017 and require an increased land carbon sink of 0.1 Pg C yr⁻¹ to balance global atmospheric O₂ and CO₂ budgets. At present, however, it is challenging to directly measure the oxidative ratio of terrestrial ecosystem exchange and even more difficult to detect a disequilibrium caused by a changing oxidative ratio of NPP. Information on plant and soil chemical composition complement gas exchange approaches for measuring the oxidative ratio, particularly for understanding how this quantity may respond to various global change processes over annual to decadal timescales.     

Emissions of carbon from forestry and land-use change in tropical Asia

The net emissions of carbon from forestry and changes in land use in south and southeast Asia were calculated here with a book-keeping model that used rates of land-use change and associated per hectare changes in vegetation and soil to calculate changes in the amount of carbon held in terrestrial ecosystems and wood products. The total release of carbon to the atmosphere over the period 1850–1995 was 43.5 PgC. The clearing of forests for permanent croplands released 33.5 PgC, about 75% of the total. The reduction of biomass in the remaining forests, as a result of shifting cultivation, logging, fuelwood extraction, and associated regrowth, was responsible for a net loss of 11.5 PgC, and the establishment of plantations withdrew from the atmosphere 1.5 PgC, most of it since 1980. Based on comparisons with other estimates, the uncertainty of this long-term flux is estimated to be within ±30%. Reducing this uncertainty will be difficult because of the difficulty of documenting the biomass of forests in existence >40 years ago. For the 15-y period 1981–1995, annual emissions averaged 1.07 PgC y^–1, about 50% higher than reported for the 1980s in an earlier study. The uncertainty of recent emissions is probably within ± 50% but could be reduced significantly with systematic use of satellite data on changes in forest area. In tropical Asia, the emissions of carbon from land-use change in the 1980s accounted for approximately 75% of the region’s total carbon emissions. Since 1990 rates of deforestation and their associated emissions have declined, while emissions of carbon from combustion of fossil fuels have increased. The net effect has been a reduction in emissions of CO₂ from this region since 1990.     

Why are estimates of the terrestrial carbon balance so different?

The carbon balance of the world's terrestrial ecosystems is uncertain. Both top‐down (atmospheric) and bottom‐up (forest inventory and land‐use change) approaches have been used to calculate the sign and magnitude of a net terrestrial flux. Different methods often include different processes, however, and comparisons can be misleading. Differences are not necessarily the result of uncertainties or errors, but often result from incomplete accounting inherent in some of the methods. Recent estimates are reviewed here. Overall, a northern mid‐latitude carbon sink of approximately 2 Pg C yr^?1 appears robust, although the mechanisms responsible are uncertain. Several lines of evidence point to environmentally enhanced rates of carbon accumulation. Other lines suggest that recovery from past disturbances is largely responsible for the sink. The tropics appear to be a small net source of carbon or nearly neutral, and the same uncertainties of mechanism exist. In addition, studies in the tropics do not permit an unequivocal choice between two alternatives: large emissions of carbon from deforestation offset by large sinks in undisturbed forests, or moderate emissions from land‐use change with essentially no change in the carbon balance in undisturbed forests. Resolution of these uncertainties is most likely to result from spatially detailed historical reconstructions of land‐use change and disturbance in selected northern mid‐latitude regions where such data are available, and from systematic monitoring of changes in the area of tropical forests with satellite data of high spatial resolution collected over the last decades and into the future.     

Land use effects on terrestrial carbon sources and sinks

Current and past land use practices are critical in determining the distribution and sizeof global terrestrial carbon (C) sources and sinks. Although fossil fuel emissions dominate the an-thropogenic perturbation of the global C cycle, land use still drives the largest portion of anthropo-genic emissions in a number of tropical regions of Asia. The size of the emission flux owing to landuse change is still the biggest uncertainty in the global C budget. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported a flux term of 1.7 PgC·a~(-1) for 1990-1995 but more recent es-timates suggest the magnitude of this source may be only of 0.96 PgC·a~(-1) for the 1990s. In add-ition, current and past land use practices are now thought to contribute to a large degree to the northern hemisphere terrestrial sink, and are the dominant driver for some regional sinks. However,mechanisms other than land use change need to be invoked in order to explain the inferred C sink in the tropics. Potential candidates are the carbon dioxide (CO_2) fertilization and climate change;fertilization due to nitrogen (N) deposition is believed to be small or nil. Although the potential formanaging C sinks is limited, improved land use management and new land uses such as refores-tation and biomass fuel cropping, can further enhance current terrestrial C sinks. Best manage-ment practices in agriculture alone could sequester 0.4-0.8 PgC per year in soils if implemented globally. New methodologies to ensure verification and permanency of C sequestration need to be developed.     

Land use effects on terrestrial carbon sources and sinks

Current and past land use practices are critical in determining the distribution and size of global terrestrial carbon (C) sources and sinks. Althoughfossil fuel emissions dominate the anthropogenic perturbation of the global C cycle, land use still drives the largest portion of anthropogenic emissions in a number of tropical regions of Asia. The size of the emission flux owing to land use change is still the biggest uncertainty in the global C budget. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported a flux term of 1.7 PgC@a-1 for 1990-1995 but more recent estimates suggest the magnitude of this source may be only of 0.96 PgC@a-1 for the 1990s. In addition, current and past land use practices are now thought to contribute to a large degree to the northern hemisphere terrestrial sink, and are the dominant driver for some regional sinks. However, mechanisms other than land use change need to be invoked in order to explain the inferred C sink in the tropics. Potential candidates are the carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization and climate change; fertilization due to nitrogen (N) deposition is believed to be small or nil. Although the potential for managing C sinks is limited, improved land use management and new land uses such as reforestation and biomass fuel cropping, can further enhance current terrestrial C sinks. Best management practices in agriculture alone could sequester 0.4-0.8 PgC per year in soils if implemented globally. New methodologies to ensure verification and permanency of C sequestration need to be developed.     

Changes in terrestrial carbon storage in the United States. 1: The roles of agriculture and forestry

• 1 Changes in the areas of croplands and pastures, and rates of wood harvest in seven regions of the United States, including Alaska, were derived from historical statistics for the period 1700–1990. These rates of land‐use change were used in a cohort model, together with equations defining the changes in live vegetation, slash, wood products and soil that follow a change in land use, to calculate the annual flux of carbon to the atmosphere from changes in land use.
• 2 The calculated flux increased from less than 10 TgC/yr in 1700 to a maximum of about 400 TgC/yr around 1880 and then decreased to approximately zero by 1950. The total flux for the 290‐year period was a release of 32.6 PgC. The area of forests and woodlands declined by 42% (160 × 10⁶ ha), releasing 29 PgC, or 90% of the total flux. Cultivation of soils accounted for about 25% of the carbon loss. Between 1950 and 1990 the annual flux of carbon was approximately zero, although eastern forests were accumulating carbon.
• 3 When the effects of fire and fire exclusion (reported in a companion paper) were added to this analysis of land‐use change, the uptake of carbon calculated for forests was similar in magnitude to the uptake measured in forest inventories, suggesting that past harvests account for a significant fraction of the observed carbon sink in forests.
• 4 Changes in the management of croplands between 1965 and 1990 may have led to an additional accumulation of carbon, not included in the 32.6 PgC release, but even with this additional non‐forest sink, the calculated accumulation of carbon in the United States was an order of magnitude smaller than the North American carbon sink inferred recently from atmospheric data and models.