Efficient parametric analysis of the chemical master equation through model order reduction

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Stochastic biochemical reaction networks are commonly modelled by the chemical master equation, and can be simulated as first order linear differential equations through a finite state projection. Due to the very high state space dimension of these equations, numerical simulations are computationally expensive. This is a particular problem for analysis tasks requiring repeated simulations for different parameter values. Such tasks are computationally expensive to the point of infeasibility with the chemical master equation. RESULTS: In this article, we apply parametric model order reduction techniques in order to construct accurate low-dimensional parametric models of the chemical master equation. These surrogate models can be used in various parametric analysis task such as identifiability analysis, parameter estimation, or sensitivity analysis. As biological examples, we consider two models for gene regulation networks, a bistable switch and a network displaying stochastic oscillations. CONCLUSIONS: The results show that the parametric model reduction yields efficient models of stochastic biochemical reaction networks, and that these models can be useful for systems biology applications involving parametric analysis problems such as parameter exploration, optimization, estimation or sensitivity analysis.     

Solving the chemical master equation for monomolecular reaction systems analytically

The stochastic dynamics of a well-stirred mixture of molecular species interacting through different biochemical reactions can be accurately modelled by the chemical master equation (CME). Research in the biology and scientific computing community has concentrated mostly on the development of numerical techniques to approximate the solution of the CME via many realizations of the associated Markov jump process. The domain of exact and/or efficient methods for directly solving the CME is still widely open, which is due to its large dimension that grows exponentially with the number of molecular species involved. In this article, we present an exact solution formula of the CME for arbitrary initial conditions in the case where the underlying system is governed by monomolecular reactions. The solution can be expressed in terms of the convolution of multinomial and product Poisson distributions with time-dependent parameters evolving according to the traditional reaction-rate equations. This very structured representation allows to deduce easily many properties of the solution. The model class includes many interesting examples. For more complex reaction systems, our results can be seen as a first step towards the construction of new numerical integrators, because solutions to the monomolecular case provide promising ansatz functions for Galerkin-type methods.     

Spectral methods for parametric sensitivity in stochastic dynamical systems

Stochastic dynamical systems governed by the chemical master equation find use in the modeling of biological phenomena in cells, where they provide more accurate representations than their deterministic counterparts, particularly when the levels of molecular population are small. The analysis of parametric sensitivity in such systems requires appropriate methods to capture the sensitivity of the system dynamics with respect to variations of the parameters amid the noise from inherent internal stochastic effects. We use spectral polynomial chaos expansions to represent statistics of the system dynamics as polynomial functions of the model parameters. These expansions capture the nonlinear behavior of the system statistics as a result of finite-sized parametric perturbations. We obtain the normalized sensitivity coefficients by taking the derivative of this functional representation with respect to the parameters. We apply this method in two stochastic dynamical systems exhibiting bimodal behavior, including a biologically relevant viral infection model.     

Incorporating chemical signalling factors into cell-based models of growing epithelial tissues

In this paper we present a comprehensive computational framework within which the effects of chemical signalling factors on growing epithelial tissues can be studied. The method incorporates a vertex-based cell model, in conjunction with a solver for the governing chemical equations. The vertex model provides a natural mesh for the finite element method (FEM), with node movements determined by force laws. The arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian formulation is adopted to account for domain movement between iterations. The effects of cell proliferation and junctional rearrangements on the mesh are also examined. By implementing refinements of the mesh we show that the finite element (FE) approximation converges towards an accurate numerical solution. The potential utility of the system is demonstrated in the context of Decapentaplegic (Dpp), a morphogen which plays a crucial role in development of the Drosophila imaginal wing disc. Despite the presence of a Dpp gradient, growth is uniform across the wing disc. We make the growth rate of cells dependent on Dpp concentration and show that the number of proliferation events increases in regions of high concentration. This allows hypotheses regarding mechanisms of growth control to be rigorously tested. The method we describe may be adapted to a range of potential application areas, and to other cell-based models with designated node movements, to accurately probe the role of morphogens in epithelial tissues.     

Numerical integration of the master equation in some models of stochastic epidemiology

The processes by which disease spreads in a population of individuals are inherently stochastic. The master equation has proven to be a useful tool for modeling such processes. Unfortunately, solving the master equation analytically is possible only in limited cases (e.g., when the model is linear), and thus numerical procedures or approximation methods must be employed. Available approximation methods, such as the system size expansion method of van Kampen, may fail to provide reliable solutions, whereas current numerical approaches can induce appreciable computational cost. In this paper, we propose a new numerical technique for solving the master equation. Our method is based on a more informative stochastic process than the population process commonly used in the literature. By exploiting the structure of the master equation governing this process, we develop a novel technique for calculating the exact solution of the master equation--up to a desired precision--in certain models of stochastic epidemiology. We demonstrate the potential of our method by solving the master equation associated with the stochastic SIR epidemic model. MATLAB software that implements the methods discussed in this paper is freely available as Supporting Information S1.     

Analysis of stochastic strategies in bacterial competence: a master equation approach

Competence is a transiently differentiated state that certain bacterial cells reach when faced with a stressful environment. Entrance into competence can be attributed to the excitability of the dynamics governing the genetic circuit that regulates this cellular behavior. Like many biological behaviors, entrance into competence is a stochastic event. In this case cellular noise is responsible for driving the cell from a vegetative state into competence and back. In this work we present a novel numerical method for the analysis of stochastic biochemical events and use it to study the excitable dynamics responsible for competence in Bacillus subtilis. Starting with a Finite State Projection (FSP) solution of the chemical master equation (CME), we develop efficient numerical tools for accurately computing competence probability. Additionally, we propose a new approach for the sensitivity analysis of stochastic events and utilize it to elucidate the robustness properties of the competence regulatory genetic circuit. We also propose and implement a numerical method to calculate the expected time it takes a cell to return from competence. Although this study is focused on an example of cell-differentiation in Bacillus subtilis, our approach can be applied to a wide range of stochastic phenomena in biological systems.     

Accurate modelling of unsteady flows in collapsible tubes

The context of this paper is the development of a general and efficient numerical haemodynamic tool to help clinicians and researchers in understanding of physiological flow phenomena. We propose an accurate one-dimensional Runge–Kutta discontinuous Galerkin (RK-DG) method coupled with lumped parameter models for the boundary conditions. The suggested model has already been successfully applied to haemodynamics in arteries and is now extended for the flow in collapsible tubes such as veins. The main difference with cardiovascular simulations is that the flow may become supercritical and elastic jumps may appear with the numerical consequence that scheme may not remain monotone if no limiting procedure is introduced. We show that our second-order RK-DG method equipped with an approximate Roe's Riemann solver and a slope-limiting procedure allows us to capture elastic jumps accurately. Moreover, this paper demonstrates that the complex physics associated with such flows is more accurately modelled than with traditional methods such as finite difference methods or finite volumes. We present various benchmark problems that show the flexibility and applicability of the numerical method. Our solutions are compared with analytical solutions when they are available and with solutions obtained using other numerical methods. Finally, to illustrate the clinical interest, we study the emptying process in a calf vein squeezed by contracting skeletal muscle in a normal and pathological subject. We compare our results with experimental simulations and discuss the sensitivity to parameters of our model.     

Numerical discretization-based estimation methods for ordinary differential equation models via penalized spline smoothing with applications in biomedical research

Differential equations are extensively used for modeling dynamics of physical processes in many scientific fields such as engineering, physics, and biomedical sciences. Parameter estimation of differential equation models is a challenging problem because of high computational cost and high-dimensional parameter space. In this article, we propose a novel class of methods for estimating parameters in ordinary differential equation (ODE) models, which is motivated by HIV dynamics modeling. The new methods exploit the form of numerical discretization algorithms for an ODE solver to formulate estimating equations. First, a penalized-spline approach is employed to estimate the state variables and the estimated state variables are then plugged in a discretization formula of an ODE solver to obtain the ODE parameter estimates via a regression approach. We consider three different order of discretization methods, Euler's method, trapezoidal rule, and Runge-Kutta method. A higher-order numerical algorithm reduces numerical error in the approximation of the derivative, which produces a more accurate estimate, but its computational cost is higher. To balance the computational cost and estimation accuracy, we demonstrate, via simulation studies, that the trapezoidal discretization-based estimate is the best and is recommended for practical use. The asymptotic properties for the proposed numerical discretization-based estimators are established. Comparisons between the proposed methods and existing methods show a clear benefit of the proposed methods in regards to the trade-off between computational cost and estimation accuracy. We apply the proposed methods t an HIV study to further illustrate the usefulness of the proposed approaches.     

DeepCME: A deep learning framework for computing solution statistics of the chemical master equation

Stochastic models of biomolecular reaction networks are commonly employed in systems and synthetic biology to study the effects of stochastic fluctuations emanating from reactions involving species with low copy-numbers. For such models, the Kolmogorov’s forward equation is called the chemical master equation (CME), and it is a fundamental system of linear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) that describes the evolution of the probability distribution of the random state-vector representing the copy-numbers of all the reacting species. The size of this system is given by the number of states that are accessible by the chemical system, and for most examples of interest this number is either very large or infinite. Moreover, approximations that reduce the size of the system by retaining only a finite number of important chemical states (e.g. those with non-negligible probability) result in high-dimensional ODE systems, even when the number of reacting species is small. Consequently, accurate numerical solution of the CME is very challenging, despite the linear nature of the underlying ODEs. One often resorts to estimating the solutions via computationally intensive stochastic simulations. The goal of the present paper is to develop a novel deep-learning approach for computing solution statistics of high-dimensional CMEs by reformulating the stochastic dynamics using Kolmogorov’s backward equation. The proposed method leverages superior approximation properties of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) to reliably estimate expectations under the CME solution for several user-defined functions of the state-vector. This method is algorithmically based on reinforcement learning and it only requires a moderate number of stochastic simulations (in comparison to typical simulation-based approaches) to train the “policy function”. This allows not just the numerical approximation of various expectations for the CME solution but also of its sensitivities with respect to all the reaction network parameters (e.g. rate constants). We provide four examples to illustrate our methodology and provide several directions for future research.     

Uncoupled Analysis of Stochastic Reaction Networks in Fluctuating Environments

The dynamics of stochastic reaction networks within cells are inevitably modulated by factors considered extrinsic to the network such as, for instance, the fluctuations in ribosome copy numbers for a gene regulatory network. While several recent studies demonstrate the importance of accounting for such extrinsic components, the resulting models are typically hard to analyze. In this work we develop a general mathematical framework that allows to uncouple the network from its dynamic environment by incorporating only the environment''s effect onto the network into a new model. More technically, we show how such fluctuating extrinsic components (e.g., chemical species) can be marginalized in order to obtain this decoupled model. We derive its corresponding process- and master equations and show how stochastic simulations can be performed. Using several case studies, we demonstrate the significance of the approach.     

Order Reduction of the Chemical Master Equation via Balanced Realisation

We consider a Markov process in continuous time with a finite number of discrete states. The time-dependent probabilities of being in any state of the Markov chain are governed by a set of ordinary differential equations, whose dimension might be large even for trivial systems. Here, we derive a reduced ODE set that accurately approximates the probabilities of subspaces of interest with a known error bound. Our methodology is based on model reduction by balanced truncation and can be considerably more computationally efficient than solving the chemical master equation directly. We show the applicability of our method by analysing stochastic chemical reactions. First, we obtain a reduced order model for the infinitesimal generator of a Markov chain that models a reversible, monomolecular reaction. Later, we obtain a reduced order model for a catalytic conversion of substrate to a product (a so-called Michaelis-Menten mechanism), and compare its dynamics with a rapid equilibrium approximation method. For this example, we highlight the savings on the computational load obtained by means of the reduced-order model. Furthermore, we revisit the substrate catalytic conversion by obtaining a lower-order model that approximates the probability of having predefined ranges of product molecules. In such an example, we obtain an approximation of the output of a model with 5151 states by a reduced model with 16 states. Finally, we obtain a reduced-order model of the Brusselator.     

Analyzing the dynamics of emotional scene sequence using recurrent neuro-fuzzy network

In this paper, we propose a new framework to analyze the temporal dynamics of the emotional stimuli. For this framework, both electroencephalography signal and visual information are of great importance. The fusion of visual information with brain signals allows us to capture the users’ emotional state. Thus we adopt previously proposed fuzzy-GIST as emotional feature to summarize the emotional feedback. In order to model the dynamics of the emotional stimuli sequence, we develop a recurrent neuro-fuzzy network for modeling the dynamic events of emotional dimensions including valence and arousal. It can incorporate human expertise by IF-THEN fuzzy rule while recurrent connections allow the fuzzy rules of network to see its own previous output. The results show that such a framework can interact with human subjects and generate arbitrary emotional sequences after learning the dynamics of an emotional sequence with enough number of samples.     

A Jump-Growth Model for Predator–Prey Dynamics: Derivation and Application to Marine Ecosystems

This paper investigates the dynamics of biomass in a marine ecosystem. A stochastic process is defined in which organisms undergo jumps in body size as they catch and eat smaller organisms. Using a systematic expansion of the master equation, we derive a deterministic equation for the macroscopic dynamics, which we call the deterministic jump-growth equation, and a linear Fokker–Planck equation for the stochastic fluctuations. The McKendrick–von Foerster equation, used in previous studies, is shown to be a first-order approximation, appropriate in equilibrium systems where predators are much larger than their prey. The model has a power-law steady state consistent with the approximate constancy of mass density in logarithmic intervals of body mass often observed in marine ecosystems. The behaviours of the stochastic process, the deterministic jump-growth equation, and the McKendrick–von Foerster equation are compared using numerical methods. The numerical analysis shows two classes of attractors: steady states and travelling waves.     

Library-based numerical reduction of the Hodgkin–Huxley neuron for network simulation

We present an efficient library-based numerical method for simulating the Hodgkin–Huxley (HH) neuronal networks. The key components in our numerical method involve (i) a pre-computed high resolution data library which contains typical neuronal trajectories (i.e., the time-courses of membrane potential and gating variables) during the interval of an action potential (spike), thus allowing us to avoid resolving the spikes in detail and to use large numerical time steps for evolving the HH neuron equations; (ii) an algorithm of spike-spike corrections within the groups of strongly coupled neurons to account for spike-spike interactions in a single large time step. By using the library method, we can evolve the HH networks using time steps one order of magnitude larger than the typical time steps used for resolving the trajectories without the library, while achieving comparable resolution in statistical quantifications of the network activity, such as average firing rate, interspike interval distribution, power spectra of voltage traces. Moreover, our large time steps using the library method can break the stability requirement of standard methods (such as Runge–Kutta (RK) methods) for the original dynamics. We compare our library-based method with RK methods, and find that our method can capture very well phase-locked, synchronous, and chaotic dynamics of HH neuronal networks. It is important to point out that, in essence, our library-based HH neuron solver can be viewed as a numerical reduction of the HH neuron to an integrate-and-fire (I&F) neuronal representation that does not sacrifice the gating dynamics (as normally done in the analytical reduction to an I&F neuron).     

Trafficking coordinate description of intracellular transport control of signaling networks

Many cellular networks rely on the regulated transport of their components to transduce extracellular information into precise intracellular signals. The dynamics of these networks is typically described in terms of compartmentalized chemical reactions. There are many important situations, however, in which the properties of the compartments change continuously in a way that cannot naturally be described by chemical reactions. Here, we develop an approach based on transport along a trafficking coordinate to precisely describe these processes and we apply it explicitly to the TGF-β signal transduction network, which plays a fundamental role in many diseases and cellular processes. The results of this newly introduced approach accurately capture the distinct TGF-β signaling dynamics of cells with and without cancerous backgrounds and provide an avenue to predict the effects of chemical perturbations in a way that closely recapitulates the observed cellular behavior.     

Robust numerical solution for the two parameter solute solvent transport model

Prediction of solute and solvent transport in cells is central to developing and testing cryopreservation protocols. As we show here, however, the models used can be difficult to accurately numerically integrate in some key cases, and thus are a challenge to implement when determining the time dependent cell state during cryoprotectant equilibration and cooling. Exact solution techniques exist for overcoming this problem, but their implementation is also challenging: inversion of a nonlinear function is required that negates much of the utility of the approach. This communication describes a simple approach for more robust numerical integration that can be implemented using any numerical differential equation solver, and can facilitate arbitrarily accurate solutions to transport models without the complication of inversion formulae or complicated numerical integration schemes. Further, a simple relevant example of red blood cell equilibration with 40% glycerol is presented with comments on extending the approach to other settings.     

Moment fitting for parameter inference in repeatedly and partially observed stochastic biological models

The inference of reaction rate parameters in biochemical network models from time series concentration data is a central task in computational systems biology. Under the assumption of well mixed conditions the network dynamics are typically described by the chemical master equation, the Fokker Planck equation, the linear noise approximation or the macroscopic rate equation. The inverse problem of estimating the parameters of the underlying network model can be approached in deterministic and stochastic ways, and available methods often compare individual or mean concentration traces obtained from experiments with theoretical model predictions when maximizing likelihoods, minimizing regularized least squares functionals, approximating posterior distributions or sequentially processing the data. In this article we assume that the biological reaction network can be observed at least partially and repeatedly over time such that sample moments of species molecule numbers for various time points can be calculated from the data. Based on the chemical master equation we furthermore derive closed systems of parameter dependent nonlinear ordinary differential equations that predict the time evolution of the statistical moments. For inferring the reaction rate parameters we suggest to not only compare the sample mean with the theoretical mean prediction but also to take the residual of higher order moments explicitly into account. Cost functions that involve residuals of higher order moments may form landscapes in the parameter space that have more pronounced curvatures at the minimizer and hence may weaken or even overcome parameter sloppiness and uncertainty. As a consequence both deterministic and stochastic parameter inference algorithms may be improved with respect to accuracy and efficiency. We demonstrate the potential of moment fitting for parameter inference by means of illustrative stochastic biological models from the literature and address topics for future research.     

Universally valid reduction of multiscale stochastic biochemical systems using simple non-elementary propensities

Biochemical systems consist of numerous elementary reactions governed by the law of mass action. However, experimentally characterizing all the elementary reactions is nearly impossible. Thus, over a century, their deterministic models that typically contain rapid reversible bindings have been simplified with non-elementary reaction functions (e.g., Michaelis-Menten and Morrison equations). Although the non-elementary reaction functions are derived by applying the quasi-steady-state approximation (QSSA) to deterministic systems, they have also been widely used to derive propensities for stochastic simulations due to computational efficiency and simplicity. However, the validity condition for this heuristic approach has not been identified even for the reversible binding between molecules, such as protein-DNA, enzyme-substrate, and receptor-ligand, which is the basis for living cells. Here, we find that the non-elementary propensities based on the deterministic total QSSA can accurately capture the stochastic dynamics of the reversible binding in general. However, serious errors occur when reactant molecules with similar levels tightly bind, unlike deterministic systems. In that case, the non-elementary propensities distort the stochastic dynamics of a bistable switch in the cell cycle and an oscillator in the circadian clock. Accordingly, we derive alternative non-elementary propensities with the stochastic low-state QSSA, developed in this study. This provides a universally valid framework for simplifying multiscale stochastic biochemical systems with rapid reversible bindings, critical for efficient stochastic simulations of cell signaling and gene regulation. To facilitate the framework, we provide a user-friendly open-source computational package, ASSISTER, that automatically performs the present framework.