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1.
The transmission and control of Neospora caninum infection in dairy cattle was examined using deterministic and stochastic models. Parameter estimates were derived from recent studies conducted in the UK and from the published literature. Three routes of transmission were considered: maternal vertical transmission with a high probability (0.95), horizontal transmission from infected cattle within the herd, and horizontal transmission from an independent external source. Putative infection via pooled colostrum was used as an example of within-herd horizontal transmission, and the recent finding that the dog is a definitive host of N. caninum supported the inclusion of an external independent source of infection. The predicted amount of horizontal transmission required to maintain infection at levels commonly observed in field studies in the UK and elsewhere, was consistent with that observed in studies of post-natal seroconversion (0.85-9.0 per 100 cow-years). A stochastic version of the model was used to simulate the spread of infection in herds of 100 cattle, with a mean infection prevalence similar to that observed in UK studies (around 20%). The distributions of infected and uninfected cattle corresponded closely to Normal distributions, with S.D.s of 6.3 and 7.0, respectively. Control measures were considered by altering birth, death and horizontal transmission parameters. A policy of annual culling of infected cattle very rapidly reduced the prevalence of infection, and was shown to be the most effective method of control in the short term. Not breeding replacements from infected cattle was also effective in the short term, particularly in herds with a higher turnover of cattle. However, the long-term effectiveness of these measures depended on the amount and source of horizontal infection. If the level of within-herd transmission was above a critical threshold, then a combination of reducing within-herd, and blocking external sources of transmission was required to permanently eliminate infection.  相似文献   

2.
Artificial insemination and embryo transfer are used commonly in cattle production and exchange of germplasm between populations of cattle. If properly monitored, assisted reproductive techniques can be used to prevent the spread of infectious agents. However, these techniques potentially represent unnatural routes for transmission of diseases. Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) is broadly distributed among the world's populations of cattle. Fluids, gametes and somatic cells from infected animals are likely contaminated with the virus. Thus, use of semen or embryos from infected animals could result in spread of BVDV. This paper provides an overview of the risks of transmitting this virus by AI or production and transfer of embryos and summarizes the precautions needed to prevent such transmissions of disease from occurring.  相似文献   

3.
Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) is endemic in several developing countries. Our objective is to evaluate the regional CBPP spread and persistence in a mixed crop-livestock system in Africa. A stochastic compartmental model in metapopulation is used, in which between-herd animal movements and the within-herd infection dynamics are explicitly represented. Hundred herds of varying size are modelled, each sending animals to n other herds (network degree). Animals are susceptible, latent, infectious, chronic carrier or resistant. The role of chronic carriers in CBPP spread being still debated, several chronic periods and infectiousness are tested. A sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the influence on model outputs of these parameters and of pathogen virulence, between-herd movement rate, network degree, and calves recruitment. Model outputs are the probability that individual- and group-level reproductive numbers R0 and R* are above one, the metapopulation infection duration, the probability of CBPP endemicity (when CBPP persists over 5 years), and the epidemic size in infected herds and infected animals. The most influential parameters are related to chronic carriers (infectiousness and chronic period), pathogen virulence, and recruitment rate. When assuming no CBPP re-introduction in the region, endemicity is only probable if chronic carriers are assumed infectious for at least 1 year and to shed the pathogen in not too low an amount. It becomes highly probable when assuming high pathogen virulence and high recruitment rate.  相似文献   

4.
We present a Bayesian hierarchical model for the joint spatial dynamics of a host-parasite system. The model was fitted to long-term data on regional plague dynamics and metapopulation dynamics of the black-tailed prairie dog, a declining keystone species of North American prairies. The rate of plague transmission between colonies increases with increasing precipitation, while the rate of infection from unknown sources decreases in response to hot weather. The mean annual dispersal distance of plague is about 10 km, and topographic relief reduces the transmission rate. Larger colonies are more likely to become infected, but colony area does not affect the infectiousness of colonies. The results suggest that prairie dog movements do not drive the spread of plague through the landscape. Instead, prairie dogs are useful sentinels of plague epizootics. Simulations suggest that this model can be used for predicting long-term colony and plague dynamics as well as for identifying which colonies are most likely to become infected in a specific year.  相似文献   

5.
The number of cattle herds placed under movement restrictions in Great Britain (GB) due to the suspected presence of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) has progressively increased over the past 25 years despite an intensive and costly test-and-slaughter control program. Around 38% of herds that clear movement restrictions experience a recurrent incident (breakdown) within 24 months, suggesting that infection may be persisting within herds. Reactivity to tuberculin, the basis of diagnostic testing, is dependent on the time from infection. Thus, testing efficiency varies between outbreaks, depending on weight of transmission and cannot be directly estimated. In this paper, we use Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) to parameterize two within-herd transmission models within a rigorous inferential framework. Previous within-herd models of bTB have relied on ad-hoc methods of parameterization and used a single model structure (SORI) where animals are assumed to become detectable by testing before they become infectious. We study such a conventional within-herd model of bTB and an alternative model, motivated by recent animal challenge studies, where there is no period of epidemiological latency before animals become infectious (SOR). Under both models we estimate that cattle-to-cattle transmission rates are non-linearly density dependent. The basic reproductive ratio for our conventional within-herd model, estimated for scenarios with no statutory controls, increases from 1.5 (0.26–4.9; 95% CI) in a herd of 30 cattle up to 4.9 (0.99–14.0) in a herd of 400. Under this model we estimate that 50% (33–67) of recurrent breakdowns in Britain can be attributed to infection missed by tuberculin testing. However this figure falls to 24% (11–42) of recurrent breakdowns under our alternative model. Under both models the estimated extrinsic force of infection increases with the burden of missed infection. Hence, improved herd-level testing is unlikely to reduce recurrence unless this extrinsic infectious pressure is simultaneously addressed.  相似文献   

6.
Perry GH 《Theriogenology》2007,68(1):38-55
Bovine virus diarrhea virus (BVDV) is a pathogen of the bovine reproductive system causing reduced conception rates, abortions and persistently infected calves. Most if not all strains of BVDV are transmissible by natural mating and AI. For international trade, it is recommended that in vitro fertilized embryos be washed according to the IETS Manual. However, BVDV may not be entirely washed out, resulting in possible transmission risks to recipients. Donor cows, donor bulls and biological agents are all possible sources of contamination. The process for producing in vitro produced (IVP) embryos is complex and non-standard, and some procedures can contribute to spread of BVDV to uninfected embryos. The structure of the zone pellucida (ZP) of IVP embryos permits adherence of BVDV to the ZP. To estimate the risk of producing infected recipients and persistently infected calves from abattoir-derived IVP embryos, a quantitative risk assessment model using Microsoft Excel and Palisade @Risk was developed. Assumptions simplified some of the complexities of the IVP process. Uncertainties due to incomplete or variable data were addressed by incorporating probability distributions in the model. Model variables included: disease prevalence; the number of donor cows slaughtered for ovaries; the number of oocytes collected, selected and cultured; the BVDV status of ovaries, semen, biological compounds and its behavior in the IVP embryo process. The model used the Monte Carlo method to simulate the IVP process. When co-culture cells derived from donor cows of unknown health status were used for in vitro culture (IVC), the probability of a recipient cow at risk of infection to BVDV per oocyte selected for IVP processing averaged 0.0006. However, when co-culture free from BVDV was used, the probability was 1.2 x 10(-5). Thus, for safe international trade in bovine IVP embryos (i.e. negligible risks of transmission of BVDV), co-culture cells, if used during IVC for producing IVP embryos, should be disease-free.  相似文献   

7.
Qualitative validation consists in showing that a model is able to mimic available observed data. In population level biological models, the available data frequently represent a group status, such as pool testing, rather than the individual statuses. They are aggregated. Our objective was to explore an approach for qualitative validation of a model with aggregated data and to apply it to validate a stochastic model simulating the bovine viral-diarrhoea virus (BVDV) spread within a dairy cattle herd. Repeated measures of the level of BVDV-specific antibodies in the bulk-tank milk (total milk production of a herd) were used to summarise the BVDV herd status. First, a domain of validation was defined to ensure a comparison restricted to dynamics of pathogen spread well identified among observed aggregated data (new herd infection with a wide BVDV spread). For simulations, scenarios were defined and simulation outputs at the individual animal level were aggregated at the herd level using an aggregation function. Comparison was done only for observed data and simulated aggregated outputs that were in the domain of validation. The validity of our BVDV model was not rejected. Drawbacks and ways of improvement of the approach are discussed.  相似文献   

8.
Bovine viral diarrhoea, caused by the bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) in the Pestivirus genus of the Flaviviridae, is one of the most important diseases of cattle world wide causing poor reproductive performance in adult cattle and mucosal disease in calves. In addition it causes immunosuppression and increased susceptibility to other infections, the impact of which is uncertain, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa where animals are exposed to a much wider range and higher intensity of infections compared to Europe. There are no previous estimates of the seroprevalence of BVDV in cattle in Cameroon. This paper describes the serological screening for antibodies to BVDV and antigen of BVDV in a cattle population in the Adamawa Region of Cameroon in 2000. The estimates of herd-level and within herd seroprevalences adjusted for test imperfections were 92% and 30% respectively and 16.5% of herds were classed as having a persistently infected calf (PI) in the herd within the last year based on the "spot" test approach. There was evidence of clustering of herds with PI calves across the north and west of the Region which corresponds with the higher cattle density areas and of self-clearance of infection from herds. A multivariable model was developed for the risk of having a PI calf in the herd; proximity to antelope, owning a goat, mixing with > 10 other herds at grazing and the catchment area of the veterinary centre the herd was registered at were all significant risk factors. Very little is known about BVDV in sub-Saharan Africa and these high seroprevalences suggest that there is a large problem which may be having both direct impacts on fertility and neonate mortality and morbidity and also indirect effects through immunosuppression and susceptibility to other infections. Understanding and accounting for BVDV should be an important component of epidemiological studies of other diseases in sub-Saharan Africa.  相似文献   

9.
Aphids are the primary vector of plant viruses. Transient aphids, which probe several plants per day, are considered to be the principal vectors of non-persistently transmitted (NPT) viruses. However, resident aphids, which can complete their life cycle on a single host and are affected by agronomic practices, can transmit NPT viruses as well. Moreover, they can interfere both directly and indirectly with transient aphids, eventually shaping plant disease dynamics. By means of an epidemiological model, originally accounting for ecological principles and agronomic practices, we explore the consequences of fertilization and irrigation, pesticide deployment and roguing of infected plants on the spread of viral diseases in crops. Our results indicate that the spread of NPT viruses can be i) both reduced or increased by fertilization and irrigation, depending on whether the interference is direct or indirect; ii) counter-intuitively increased by pesticide application and iii) reduced by roguing infected plants. We show that a better understanding of vectors’ interactions would enhance our understanding of disease transmission, supporting the development of disease management strategies.  相似文献   

10.
Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) infection in cattle is responsible for mucosal disease; an invariably fatal syndrome characterized by the recovery of two BVDV strains: cytopathic (cp) or noncytopathic (ncp). To understand the cellular responses to cp BVDV infection, we carried out differential display-polymerase chain reaction (DD-PCR) analysis of gene expression in infected cells. Altered expression of 14 genes involved in several functions was observed in cells infected with cp BVDV: (1) immune regulation, such as CD46, FKBP-12, and osteopontin (OPN); (2) apoptosis-related cysteine proteases like calpain; (3) signaling plasma membrane proteins such as integrin beta1, and prion protein; and (4) unknown function genes. Northern blot analysis of the expression of these genes in ncp BVDV infected cells revealed that while the expression of some genes was affected as in cp BVDV infected cells, others show a clearly contrary change. We postulate that a cause-effect relationship may exist between the differential gene expression alterations that characterize cp and ncp BVDV infections and the unique diseases associated with each BVDV biotype.  相似文献   

11.
Certain strains of the endosymbiont Wolbachia have the potential to lower the vectorial capacity of mosquito populations and assist in controlling a number of mosquito-borne diseases. An important consideration when introducing Wolbachia-carrying mosquitoes into natural populations is the minimisation of any transient increase in disease risk or biting nuisance. This may be achieved by predominantly releasing male mosquitoes. To explore this, we use a sex-structured model of Wolbachia-mosquito interactions. We first show that Wolbachia spread can be initiated with very few infected females provided the infection frequency in males exceeds a threshold. We then consider realistic introduction scenarios involving the release of batches of infected mosquitoes, incorporating seasonal fluctuations in population size. For a range of assumptions about mosquito population dynamics we find that male-biased releases allow the infection to spread after the introduction of low numbers of females, many fewer than with equal sex-ratio releases. We extend the model to estimate the transmission rate of a mosquito-borne pathogen over the course of Wolbachia establishment. For a range of release strategies we demonstrate that male-biased release of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes can cause substantial transmission reductions without transiently increasing disease risk. The results show the importance of including mosquito population dynamics in studying Wolbachia spread and that male-biased releases can be an effective and safe way of rapidly establishing the symbiont in mosquito populations.  相似文献   

12.
Bulk milk samples from 220 dairy herds were collected at 9 public milk collection centres in the northeastern and northern Thailand, and a subset of 11 herds was selected for individual testing. The samples were tested for presence of antibodies to BVDV and BHV-1 using an indirect ELISA. The results from the bulk milk testing demonstrated a moderate level of exposure to BVDV and BHV-1 (73% and 67%, respectively). However, the low proportion of herds with high BVDV antibody-levels (13%) and the low within-herd seroprevalence of BVDV and BHV-1 in the 11 herds (24% and 5%, respectively), particularly among the young stock (15% and 0%, respectively), demonstrated a low prevalence of active BVDV infection and a low rate of reactivation of latent BHV-1. The presence of a self-clearance process was also indicated by the results from the individual testing. Moreover, a surprisingly low prevalence of BVDV and BHV-1 antibody-positive herds at one of the milk centres was found. This centre was established 5–10 years before the others. Our impression is that this reflects the self-clearance process, where consecutive replacement of imported infected animals without further spread has resulted in a nearly total elimination of the infections.  相似文献   

13.
Brucellosis is a bacterial disease caused by brucella; mainly spread by direct contact transmission through the brucella carriers, or indirect contact transmission by the environment containing large quantities of bacteria discharged by the infected individuals. At the beginning of 21st century, the epidemic among dairy cows in Zhejiang province, began to come back and has become a localized prevalent epidemic. Combining the pathology of brucellosis, the reported positive data characteristics, and the feeding method in Zhejiang province, this paper establishes an dynamic model to excavate the internal transmission dynamics, fit the real disease situation, predict brucellosis tendency and assess control measures in dairy cows. By careful analysis, we give some quantitative results as follows. (1) The external input of dairy cows from northern areas may lead to high fluctuation of the number of the infectious cows in Zhejiang province that can reach several hundreds. In this case, the disease cannot be controlled and the infection situation cannot easily be predicted. Thus, this paper encourages cows farms to insist on self-supplying production of the dairy cows. (2) The effect of transmission rate of brucella in environment to dairy cattle on brucellosis spreading is greater than transmission rate of the infectious dairy cattle to susceptible cattle. The prevalence of the epidemic is mainly aroused by environment transmission. (3) Under certain circumstances, the epidemic will become a periodic phenomenon. (4) For Zhejiang province, besides measures that have already been adopted, sterilization times of the infected regions is suggested as twice a week, and should be combined with management of the birth rate of dairy cows to control brucellosis spread.  相似文献   

14.
Due to the affinity of BVDV for the fetus and for cells of lymphatic organs of infected cattle, reproductive failure or immunosuppression, respectively, are likely consequences of BVDV infections of susceptible cattle. Infection of susceptible pregnant cattle with noncytopathic (ncp) BVDV results in transplacental infection with induction of maternal and fetal innate and adaptive immune responses. Differences in maternal innate and adaptive immune responses are evident in late gestation between cows carrying fetuses persistently-infected (PI) with BVDV and cows with fetuses transiently-infected with BVDV. Fetal innate and adaptive immune responses to ncp BVDV infection are defined by fetal age and developmental stage of the fetal immune system. Since a functional fetal adaptive immune response does not occur in the early fetus, immunotolerance to ncp BVDV is established, virus replicates unrestricted in fetal tissues and calves are born immunotolerant and PI with the virus. In the last trimester of gestation, the fetal immune system is adequately developed to respond in an efficacious manner, most commonly resulting in the birth of a clinically normal calf with pre-colostral antibodies. Immunosuppression due to postnatal acute ncp BVDV infections of susceptible calves may contribute to the occurrence and severity of multi-factorial respiratory tract and enteric diseases.  相似文献   

15.
In this work we show evidence of mother-to-offspring transmission in a transgenic mouse line expressing bovine PrP (boTg) experimentally infected by intracerebral administration of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) prions. PrP(res) was detected in brains of newborns from infected mothers only when mating was allowed near to the clinical stage of disease, when brain PrP(res) deposition could be detected by Western blot analysis. Attempts to detect infectivity in milk after intracerebral inoculation in boTg mice were unsuccessful, suggesting the involvement of other tissues as carriers of prion dissemination. The results shown here prove the ability of BSE prions to spread centrifugally from the central nervous system to peripheral tissues and to offspring in a mouse model. Also, these results may complement previous epidemiological data supporting the occurrence of vertical BSE transmission in cattle.  相似文献   

16.
Bovine diarrhea virus (BVDV) causes a variety of economically important enteric and infertility problems in cattle. For that reason, several countries have eradicated the disease, and some others have schemes in progress to achieve freedom. Although there is a considerable amount of information about the risk of BVDV transmission through contaminated semen used for artificial insemination (AI), there is no evidence to indicate whether the resulting embryos, when used for embryo transfer, can lead to the transmission of BVDV to recipients or offspring. For this experiment, semen from a bull persistently infected with BVDV (105 50% tissue culture infective doses/mL NY strain) was used for insemination (two times at estrus) of BVDV-seronegative, superovulated cows (N = 35). Embryos were collected 7 days after insemination and subsequently were washed according to the International Embryo Transfer Society recommendations or left unwashed. Out of 302 collected oocytes and embryos, 173 (57%) were fertilized and the remaining 129 (43%) had degenerated. Infectious BVDV was detected in 24% (17/71) of unwashed and 10% (8/77) of washed embryos, and in all (N = 11) follicular fluid samples, oviductal epithelial cells, endometrium, and corpora lutea tissues as determined by the virus isolation test. After transfer of 39 washed embryos to 27 BVDV-seronegative recipients, 12 (44%) cows became pregnant and 17 calves free of BVDV and BVDV antibodies, including five sets of twins, were born. After embryo transfer, all pregnant and nonpregnant recipients remained free of BVDV and antibodies. In conclusion, results herein suggest that BVDV can be transmitted by AI resulting in the production of some proportion of contaminated embryos. However, it appears that such embryos, when washed according to International Embryo Transfer Society and the World Organization for Animal Health guidelines do not cause BVDV transmission to recipients or their offspring.  相似文献   

17.
Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) has been associated with several reproductive problems in cattle, including poor fertility, early embryonic deaths, abortion and congenital anomalies. Little is known about the cause of poor fertility in cows acutely infected with BVDV. The purpose of this study was to identify changes in ovarian function following acute infection with noncytopathic BVDV. The ovaries of 5 BVDV sero-negative and virus-negative pubertal heifers were monitored daily for 4 consecutive estrous cycles. The position and diameter of all follicles (> 5 mm) and luteal structures were recorded. Daily plasma samples were collected to measure peripheral progesterone and estradiol levels. Each heifer was infected intranasally with noncytopathic BVDV following ovulation of the second estrous cycle. The maximum diameter and growth rate of dominant anovulatory and ovulatory follicles were significantly reduced following acute BVDV infection. Similarly, the number of subordinate follicles associated with both the anovulatory and ovulatory follicle was reduced following infection. There were no significant differences in other follicle or luteal dynamic parameters or in peripheral progesterone or estradiol levels. Ovarian follicular growth was different during the first 2 estrous cycles following acute infection with BVDV when compared with the 2 estrous cycles preceding infection. These differences may be important in explaining reduced fertility in herds with acute BVDV infection.  相似文献   

18.
Palfi  V.  Houe  H.  Philipsen  J. 《Acta veterinaria Scandinavica》1993,34(1):105-107
Persistently infected (PI) animals play a significant role in spread and transmission of bovine virus diarrhoea virus (B VD V) (Duffell & Harkness 1985). The identification and removal of PI cattle from the herd is of great importance in the control of BVDV. Although PI animals often show various degrees of growth retardation and unthrifty appearance, a significant proportion is clinically normal. PI animals are often seronegative (Duffell & Harkness 1985), but calves may be tested seropositive because of the presence of maternal immunity (Meyling & Jensen 1988). The passively derived BVDV antibodies may interfere with the ability to detect virus. Considering the importance of early recognition of PI calves, it is essential to determine the earliest time when PI animals can safely be diagnosed in the herd.  相似文献   

19.
Estimating detailed transmission trees that reflect the relationships between infected individuals or populations during a disease outbreak often provides valuable insights into both the nature of disease transmission and the overall dynamics of the underlying epidemiological process. These trees may be based on epidemiological data that relate to the timing of infection and infectiousness, or genetic data that show the genetic relatedness of pathogens isolated from infected individuals. Genetic data are becoming increasingly important in the estimation of transmission trees of viral pathogens due to their inherently high mutation rate. Here, we propose a maximum-likelihood approach that allows epidemiological and genetic data to be combined within the same analysis to infer probable transmission trees. We apply this approach to data from 20 farms infected during the 2001 UK foot-and-mouth disease outbreak, using complete viral genome sequences from each infected farm and information on when farms were first estimated to have developed clinical disease and when livestock on these farms were culled. Incorporating known infection links due to animal movement prior to imposition of the national movement ban results in the reduction of the number of trees from 41472 that are consistent with the genetic data to 1728, of which just 4 represent more than 95% of the total likelihood calculated using a model that accounts for the epidemiological data. These trees differ in several ways from those constructed prior to the availability of genetic data.  相似文献   

20.
Macroparasite infections (e.g., helminths) remain a major human health concern. However, assessing transmission dynamics is problematic because the direct observation of macroparasite dispersal among hosts is not possible. We used a novel landscape genetics approach to examine transmission of the human roundworm Ascaris lumbricoides in a small human population in Jiri, Nepal. Unexpectedly, we found significant genetic structuring of parasites, indicating the presence of multiple transmission foci within a small sampling area (∼14 km2). We analyzed several epidemiological variables, and found that transmission is spatially autocorrelated around households and that transmission foci are stable over time despite extensive human movement. These results would not have been obtainable via a traditional epidemiological study based on worm counts alone. Our data refute the assumption that a single host population corresponds to a single parasite transmission unit, an assumption implicit in many classic models of macroparasite transmission. Newer models have shown that the metapopulation-like pattern observed in our data can adversely affect targeted control strategies aimed at community-wide impacts. Furthermore, the observed metapopulation structure and local mating patterns generate an excess of homozygotes that can accelerate the spread of recessive traits such as drug resistance. Our study illustrates how molecular analyses complement traditional epidemiological information in providing a better understanding of parasite transmission. Similar landscape genetic approaches in other macroparasite systems will be warranted if an accurate depiction of the transmission process is to be used to inform effective control strategies.  相似文献   

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