Best environmental predictors of breeding phenology differ with elevation in a common woodland bird species

Temperatures in mountain areas are increasing at a higher rate than the Northern Hemisphere land average, but how fauna may respond, in particular in terms of phenology, remains poorly understood. The aim of this study was to assess how elevation could modify the relationships between climate variability (air temperature and snow melt‐out date), the timing of plant phenology and egg‐laying date of the coal tit (Periparus ater). We collected 9 years (2011–2019) of data on egg‐laying date, spring air temperature, snow melt‐out date, and larch budburst date at two elevations (~1,300 m and ~1,900 m asl) on a slope located in the Mont‐Blanc Massif in the French Alps. We found that at low elevation, larch budburst date had a direct influence on egg‐laying date, while at high‐altitude snow melt‐out date was the limiting factor. At both elevations, air temperature had a similar effect on egg‐laying date, but was a poorer predictor than larch budburst or snowmelt date. Our results shed light on proximate drivers of breeding phenology responses to interannual climate variability in mountain areas and suggest that factors directly influencing species phenology vary at different elevations. Predicting the future responses of species in a climate change context will require testing the transferability of models and accounting for nonstationary relationships between environmental predictors and the timing of phenological events.     

华北区域杨柳科树木春季物候期模拟

杨柳科树木是我国华北区域植树造林的主要树种,但春季的杨柳飞絮问题既影响区域大气环境质量,也对人体健康造成一定的危害,因此准确预报杨柳科树木的春季物候期具有重要现实意义。基于中国气象局农业气象观测网和中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国物候观测网提供的华北区域1963—2018年59个站点的4种杨柳科树木(垂柳、旱柳、加拿大杨、毛白杨)的4个春季物候期(开花始期、盛期、末期和果实或种子成熟期)观测数据,对3种基于逐日气温序列构建的春季物候过程模型(简单积温模型、温度三基点模型和冷激-三基点模型)进行了参数率定和优选,分别对这16个基于物种-物候期的最优春季物候模型进行了外部检验。内部模拟结果表明,各模型对同一物种-物候期模拟效果相差不大,均方根误差(RMSE)介于5.5—11.6d,各模型对同一物种发生较早的物候期模拟效果相对更好。通过赤池信息准则(AIC)判定,上述16个基于物种-物候期的最优春季物候模型中,有11个选择简单积温模型,有5个选择冷激-三基点模型,其中,垂柳和旱柳的最优春季物候模型都选择了简单积温模型,加拿大杨的各春季物候期对2种物候模型均有选择,毛白杨的各春季物候期则全部...     

Spatial heterogeneity in the timing of birch budburst in response to future climate warming in Ireland

In order to predict the impact of future climate warming on trees it is important to quantify the effect climate has on their development. Our understanding of the phenological response to environmental drivers has given rise to various mathematical models of the annual growth cycle of plants. These models simulate the timing of phenophases by quantifying the relationship between development and its triggers, typically temperature. In addition, other environmental variables have an important role in determining the timing of budburst. For example, photoperiod has been shown to have a strong influence on phenological events of a number of tree species, including Betula pubescens (birch). A recently developed model for birch (DORMPHOT), which integrates the effects of temperature and photoperiod on budburst, was applied to future temperature projections from a 19-member ensemble of regional climate simulations (on a 25 km grid) generated as part of the ENSEMBLES project, to simulate the timing of birch budburst in Ireland each year up to the end of the present century. Gridded temperature time series data from the climate simulations were used as input to the DORMPHOT model to simulate future budburst timing. The results showed an advancing trend in the timing of birch budburst over most regions in Ireland up to 2100. Interestingly, this trend appeared greater in the northeast of the country than in the southwest, where budburst is currently relatively early. These results could have implications for future forest planning, species distribution modeling, and the birch allergy season.     

Asymmetric effects of cooler and warmer winters on beech phenology last beyond spring

In temperate trees, the timings of plant growth onset and cessation affect biogeochemical cycles, water, and energy balance. Currently, phenological studies largely focus on specific phenophases and on their responses to warming. How differently spring phenology responds to the warming and cooling, and affects the subsequent phases, has not been yet investigated in trees. Here, we exposed saplings of Fagus sylvatica L. to warmer and cooler climate during the winter 2013–2014 by conducting a reciprocal transplant experiment between two elevations (1,340 vs. 371 m a.s.l., ca. 6°C difference) in the Swiss Jura mountains. To test the legacy effects of earlier or later budburst on the budset timing, saplings were moved back to their original elevation shortly after the occurrence of budburst in spring 2014. One degree decrease in air temperature in winter/spring resulted in a delay of 10.9 days in budburst dates, whereas one degree of warming advanced the date by 8.8 days. Interestingly, we also found an asymmetric effect of the warmer winter vs. cooler winter on the budset timing in late summer. Budset of saplings that experienced a cooler winter was delayed by 31 days compared to the control, whereas it was delayed by only 10 days in saplings that experienced a warmer winter. Budburst timing in 2015 was not significantly impacted by the artificial advance or delay of the budburst timing in 2014, indicating that the legacy effects of the different phenophases might be reset during each winter. Adapting phenological models to the whole annual phenological cycle, and considering the different response to cooling and warming, would improve predictions of tree phenology under future climate warming conditions.     

Predicted changes in the synchrony of larval emergence and budburst under climatic warming

Summary The impact of climatic warming on the synchrony of insect and plant phenologies was modelled in the case of winter moth (Operophtera brumata) and Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) in the Scottish uplands. The emergence of winter moth larvae was predicted with a thermal time requirement model and the budburst of Sitka spruce was predicted from a previously published model (Cannell and Smith 1983) based on winter chilling and thermal time. The date of emergence of winter moth larvae was predicted to occur earlier under climatic warming but the date of budburst of Sitka spruce was not greatly changed, resulting in decreased synchrony between larval emergence and budburst. The general question of how a change of climate might affect phenological synchrony and insect abundance is discussed.     

Mycological records from ISAM 9, Kevo,Finland

ISAM 9 (International Symposium of Arctic-Alpine Mycology) was held in August 2012?at the Kevo Lapland Research Station in Utsjoki in northernmost Finnish Lapland. In addition to Utsjoki, some excursions were made in Finnmark, the northernmost part of Norway. Kevo station lies in the subarctic zone characterized by mountain birch (Betula pubescens var. czerepanovii), but the fells reach the arctic tundra zone. Áilegas fells at Utsjoki village and at Nuvvus lie on acid ground as does Skalluvaara, and all are under influence of reindeer grazing. The Gistuskaidi fell is highest and is characterized by the presence of more basic rocks; the vegetation also reflects some amount of maritime influence. The places visited on the Norwegian side belong to the Nesseby commune at the sea shore and Tana commune on the shore of the Tana River and along the road to Båtsfjord where the tundra is maritime and mossy with calcareous spots. In all 123 taxa were found during the excursions, some of them not determined at species level. The reported fungal taxa belong to the Basidiomycota (115 taxa), Ascomycota (7 taxa), and Mycetozoa (1 taxon).     

Performance of several models for predicting budburst date of grapevine (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Vitis vinifera</Emphasis> L.)

The budburst stage is a key phenological stage for grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.), with large site and cultivar variability. The objective of the present work was to provide a reliable agro-meteorological model for simulating grapevine budburst occurrence all over France. The study was conducted using data from ten cultivars of grapevine (Cabernet Sauvignon, Chasselas, Chardonnay, Grenache, Merlot, Pinot Noir, Riesling, Sauvignon, Syrah, Ugni Blanc) and five locations (Bordeaux, Colmar, Angers, Montpellier, Epernay). First, we tested two commonly used models that do not take into account dormancy: growing degree days with a base temperature of 10°C (GDD₁₀), and Riou’s model (RIOU). The errors of predictions of these models ranged between 9 and 21 days. Second, a new model (BRIN) was studied relying on well-known formalisms for orchard trees and taking into account the dormancy period. The BRIN model showed better performance in predicting budburst date than previous grapevine models. Analysis of the components of BRIN formalisms (calculation of dormancy, use of hourly temperatures, base temperature) explained the better performances obtained with the BRIN model. Base temperature was the main driver, while dormancy period was not significant in simulating budburst date. For each cultivar, we provide the parameter estimates that showed the best performance for both the BRIN model and the GDD model with a base temperature of 5°C.     

The Impact of Winter and Spring Temperatures on Temperate Tree Budburst Dates: Results from an Experimental Climate Manipulation

Budburst phenology is a key driver of ecosystem structure and functioning, and it is sensitive to global change. Both cold winter temperatures (chilling) and spring warming (forcing) are important for budburst. Future climate warming is expected to have a contrasting effect on chilling and forcing, and subsequently to have a non-linear effect on budburst timing. To clarify the different effects of warming during chilling and forcing phases of budburst phenology in deciduous trees, (i) we conducted a temperature manipulation experiment, with separate winter and spring warming treatments on well irrigated and fertilized saplings of beech, birch and oak, and (ii) we analyzed the observations with five temperature-based budburst models (Thermal Time model, Parallel model, Sequential model, Alternating model, and Unified model). The results show that both winter warming and spring warming significantly advanced budburst date, with the combination of winter plus spring warming accelerating budburst most. As expected, all three species were more sensitive to spring warming than to winter warming. Although the different chilling requirement, the warming sensitivity was not significantly different among the studied species. Model evaluation showed that both one- and two- phase models (without and with chilling, respectively) are able to accurately predict budburst. For beech, the Sequential model reproduced budburst dates best. For oak and birch, both Sequential model and the Thermal Time model yielded good fit with the data but the latter was slightly better in case of high parameter uncertainty. However, for late-flushing species, the Sequential model is likely be the most appropriate to predict budburst data in a future warmer climate.     

Daily endocrine profiles in parr and smolt Atlantic salmon

To elucidate possible mechanisms behind the endocrine control of parr–smolt transformation, the daily plasma profiles in thyroid hormones (TH; free thyroxine (FT₄), total thyroxine (TT₄), and total 3,5,3′-triiodothyronine (TT₃)), growth hormone (GH) and cortisol were studied in Atlantic salmon parr and smolts under simulated-natural winter (8 L:16D) and spring (16.5 L:7.5D) photoperiods, respectively. Overall, TT₄, TT₃ and GH levels were higher in smolts than in parr, whereas FT₄ levels fluctuated within the same range in parr and smolts. Significant diurnal changes in plasma TH were present in parr. Both FT₄ and TT₄ levels increased during the photophase and decreased during the scotophase, while TT₃ levels followed an inverse pattern. Growth hormone showed no significant changes in parr. Changes in FT₄, TT₄, GH, and cortisol, but not TT₃, levels, were observed in smolts with peak levels during both the photophase and scotophase for FT₄, TT₄ and GH. Plasma cortisol was not assayed in parr but in smolts the peaks were associated with dusk and dawn. In addition to the general increases in TH, GH and cortisol, the distinct endocrine differences in nighttime levels between parr in the winter and smolts in the spring suggest different interactions between TH, GH, cortisol and melatonin at these different time points. These spring scotophase endocrine profiles may represent synergistic hormone interactions that promote smolt development, similar to the synergistic endocrine interactions shown to accelerate anuran metamorphosis. The variations in these diurnal rhythms between parr and smolts may represent part of the endocrine mechanism for the translation of seasonal information during salmon smoltification.     

Silica‐scaled chrysophytes from Abisko (Swedish Lapland)

The silica‐scaled chrysophyte flora of Swedish Lapland (near Abisko) was examined. Chrysophyte scales were found in 18 of the 32 investigated water bodies (lakes and pools). Altogether, 28 taxa from the classes Chrysophyceae and Synurophyceae were found. The most abundant species was Synura echinulata. Three species were observed for the first time in Sweden: Mallomonas maculata, M. rasilis and Spiniferomonas serrata.     

Feasible D1–A–D2–A Random Copolymers for Simultaneous High‐Performance Fullerene and Nonfullerene Solar Cells

A series of PBDB‐TTn random donor copolymers is synthesized, consisting of an electron‐deficient benzo[1,2‐c:4,5‐c′]dithiophene‐4,8‐dione (BDD) unit and different ratios of two electron‐rich benzo[1,2‐b:4,5‐b′]dithiophene (BDT) and thieno[3,2‐b]thiophene (TT) units, with intention to modulate the intrachain and/or interchain interactions and ultimately bulk‐heterojunction morphology evolution. A comparative study using 4 × 2 polymer solar cell (PSC) performance maps and each of the [6,6]‐phenyl‐C₇₁‐butyric acid methyl ester (PC₇₁BM) and the fused‐aromatic‐ring‐based molecule (m‐ITIC) acceptors are carried out. Given the similarities in their absorption ranges and energy levels, the PBDB‐TTn copolymers clearly reveal a change in the absorption coefficients upon optimization of the BDT to TT ratio in the backbone. Among the given acceptor combination sets, superior performances are observed in the case of PBDB‐TT5 blended with PC₇₁BM (8.34 ± 0.10%) or m‐ITIC (11.10 ± 0.08%), and the dominant factors causing power conversion efficiency differences in them are found to be distinctly different. For example, the performances of PC₇₁BM‐based PSCs are governed by size and population of face‐on crystallites, while intermixed morphology without the formation of large phase‐separated aggregates is the key factor for achieving high‐performance m‐ITIC‐based PSCs. This study presents a new sketch of structure–morphology–performance relationships for fullerene‐ versus nonfullerene‐based PSCs.     

中国东部暖温带刺槐花期空间格局的模拟与预测

模拟刺槐开花日期与气温之间的空间关系,对于揭示蜜源植物物候空间格局形成的生态机制和掌握养蜂生产的时宜,具有重要的科学意义.利用中国东部暖温带26个站点1986-2005年的刺槐开花始期、盛期和末期数据,建立了基于日均温的多年平均和逐年物候空间模型,模拟多年平均和逐年刺槐开花日期的空间格局,并对模型进行了空间外推检验.进而,将1986-2005年8 km×8 km分辨率的日均温格点数据代人多年平均和逐年物候空间模型,得到连续地理空间多年平均和逐年刺槐开花日期的空间格局,并尝试设计了研究区内转地放蜂的适宜路线.结果表明:中国东部暖温带1986-2005年多年平均及逐年最佳期间日均温的空间格局分别控制着多年平均和逐年刺槐开花日期的空间格局.各地多年平均刺槐开花日期的空间序列与最佳期间日均温的空间序列呈显著负相关(P＜0.001),多年平均气温—物候空间模型对刺槐开花始期、盛期和末期的方差解释量分别为87％、86％和77％,模拟的均方根误差(RMSE)分别为2.5、2.7d和4.1d.同样,各地逐年刺槐开花日期的空间序列与最佳期间日均温的空间序列均呈显著负相关(P＜0.05),逐年气温-物候空间模型对刺槐开花始期、盛期和末期的方差解释量分别介于44％-94％、57％-92％和39％-84％之间,模拟的平均RMSE分别为3.9、4.0d和5.4d.预测得到的连续地理空间多年平均刺槐开花日期呈现出自南向北、从平原向丘陵和山地逐渐推迟的空间演进特征.据此,中国东部暖温带地区转地放蜂可以沿西线、中线和东线进行,放蜂的大致持续时间可达40-50 d.此外,预测得到的连续地理空间1986-2005年期间刺槐开花始期、盛期和末期的线性趋势以提前为主,呈显著提前的面积分别占总面积的78％、26％和32％.     

The Clinical Utility of Free Thyroxine in Oral Levothyroxine Absorption Testing

ObjectiveOriginal absorption studies for levothyroxine (LT₄) were validated using total thyroxine (TT₄) measurements. Free thyroxine (FT₄) has largely supplanted TT₄ in clinical practice. The objective of our study was to assess the clinical utility of FT₄ in oral LT₄ absorption testing.MethodsIn this retrospective electronic health record analysis, we recorded data of patients who underwent LT₄ oral absorption testing between November 2010 and January 2012 because of persistent hypothyroidism despite a greater than anticipated weight-based dose of LT₄. Patients included had primary hypothyroidism and an absorption test with assessment of both TT₄ and FT₄ measured at times 0, 30, 60, 90, 120, 180, 240, 300, and 360 minutes. The test was conducted with 1 mg (five 200-μg tablets) of Synthroid® after an overnight fast by a standard nonisotopic method.ResultsA total of 10 patients (3 men/7 women) underwent absorption testing. Prior to testing, the median daily LT₄ dose was 250 μg (range, 150 to 350 μg). Three patients were also on liothyronine (10, 20, or 50 μg daily). Based on the calculated amount absorbed, 1 patient demonstrated subnormal absorption, and 9 patients were normal. Median body mass index was 33 kg/m² (range, 21 to 50 kg/m²). Median calculated absorption was 105% (range, 3.7 to 195.6%). The correlation comparing FT₄ and TT₄ was 0.88 (95% confidence interval, 0.56 to 0.97, P < .001), a significant correlation.ConclusionFT₄ and TT₄ correlated highly, even in patients who were severely hypothyroid; FT₄ may be used interchangeably with TT₄ as a qualitative assessment of suspected malabsorption using an oral LT₄ absorption test. (Endocr Pract. 2014;20:925-929)     

Summer water stress and shade alter bud size and budburst date in three mediterranean Quercus species

Current environmental conditions are known to affect plant growth, morphology, phenology, and therefore, plant performance. However, effects of the previous-year environmental conditions can also affect plant structure by altering bud growth, and proportion and date of budburst. Here, we analysed the effects of previous-year water stress and shade on bud size, percentage, and date of budburst in seedlings of three co-occurring Iberian Quercus species in two independent experiments. Responses of apical, lateral, and basal buds were checked during an annual cycle. In the first experiment, seedlings of two evergreens (Q. coccifera L., Q. ilex subsp. ballota (Desf.) Samp.) and a deciduous-marcescent tree (Q. faginea Lam.) were grown under two levels of summer watering. In the second experiment, seedlings were grown under three light intensities. Soluble sugars and starch in shoots and roots were measured before budburst. Summer drought increased bud size of all species and advanced budburst of Q. ilex and Q. coccifera. Moderate and/or intense shade tended to reduce bud size and delay budburst in all species. These responses seem related to changes in the date of bud formation rather than to the amount of carbon reserves, which were reduced both by drought and shade. Treatments affected percentage of budburst in lateral buds, which was reduced by shade and water stress, probably leading to narrower crowns. These results show that previous-year environmental conditions are relevant for plant phenology and structure. The different responses in budburst date between the deciduous and the evergreens might alter their competition relationships at seedling stage.     

Phenology model from surface meteorology does not capture satellite-based greenup estimations

Seasonal temperature change in temperate forests is known to trigger the start of spring growth, and both interannual and spatial variations in spring onset have been tied to climatic variability. Satellite dates are increasingly being used in phenology studies, but to date that has been little effort to link remotely sensed phenology to surface climate records. In this research, we use a two‐parameter spring warming phenology model to explore the relationship between climate and satellite‐based phenology. We employ daily air temperature records between 2000 and 2005 for 171 National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration weather stations located throughout New England to construct spring warming models predicting the onset of spring, as defined by the date of half‐maximum greenness (D₅₀) in deciduous forests as detected from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer. The best spring warming model starts accumulating temperatures after March 20th and when average daily temperatures exceed 5°C. The accumulated heat sums [heating degree day (HDD)] required to reach D₅₀ range from 150 to 300 degree days over New England, with the highest requirements to the south and in coastal regions. We test the ability of the spring warming model to predict phenology against a null photoperiod model (average date of onset). The spring warming model offers little improvement on the null model when predicting D₅₀. Differences between the efficacies of the two models are expressed as the ‘climate sensitivity ratio’ (CSR), which displays coherent spatial patterns. Our results suggest that northern (beech‐maple‐birch) and central (oak‐hickory) hardwood forests respond to climate differently, particularly with disparate requirements for the minimum temperature necessary to begin spring growth (3 and 6°C, respectively). We conclude that spatial location and species composition are critical factors for predicting the phenological response to climate change: satellite observations cannot be linked directly to temperature variability if species or community compositions are unknown.     

Trends and uncertainties in budburst projections of Norway spruce in Northern Europe

Budburst is regulated by temperature conditions, and a warming climate is associated with earlier budburst. A range of phenology models has been developed to assess climate change effects, and they tend to produce different results. This is mainly caused by different model representations of tree physiology processes, selection of observational data for model parameterization, and selection of climate model data to generate future projections. In this study, we applied (i) Bayesian inference to estimate model parameter values to address uncertainties associated with selection of observational data, (ii) selection of climate model data representative of a larger dataset, and (iii) ensembles modeling over multiple initial conditions, model classes, model parameterizations, and boundary conditions to generate future projections and uncertainty estimates. The ensemble projection indicated that the budburst of Norway spruce in northern Europe will on average take place 10.2 ± 3.7 days earlier in 2051–2080 than in 1971–2000, given climate conditions corresponding to RCP 8.5. Three provenances were assessed separately (one early and two late), and the projections indicated that the relationship among provenance will remain also in a warmer climate. Structurally complex models were more likely to fail predicting budburst for some combinations of site and year than simple models. However, they contributed to the overall picture of current understanding of climate impacts on tree phenology by capturing additional aspects of temperature response, for example, chilling. Model parameterizations based on single sites were more likely to result in model failure than parameterizations based on multiple sites, highlighting that the model parameterization is sensitive to initial conditions and may not perform well under other climate conditions, whether the change is due to a shift in space or over time. By addressing a range of uncertainties, this study showed that ensemble modeling provides a more robust impact assessment than would a single phenology model run.     

The control of pulse transit time independently of interbeat interval by providing feedback from both

Sixteen subjects took part in a two-stage cardiovascular biofeedback experiment. For five sessions all subjects attempted to control their pulse wave transit time(TT), using TT feedback. The eight subjects who achieved control were given a further five sessions, during which they attempted to control their transit time without altering their interbeat interval(IBI) when provided with TT and IBI feedback. No evidence was found for complete dissociation of TT and IBI. When the single TT contingency was in operation, all subjects who had significant control of TT also showed significant changes in IBI in the same direction. When the dual contingency was introduced, subjects either controlled TT but failed to keep IBI stable or kept IBI stable but failed to control TT.     

The start of the birch pollen season in Finnish Lapland: separating non‐local from local birch pollen and the implication for allergy sufferers

Determining the start of the birch pollen season requires the reliable separation of non‐local from locally produced birch pollen. The research was undertaken close to the latitudinal birch tree line at the Kevo Subarctic Research Institute (69°45′N 27°01′E) in northern Finland. By comparing phenological and aerobiological observations, the proportion of birch pollen present in the air before local anthesis commences can be delimited. We coupled this with data of pollen deposition monitored by means of a modified Tauber trap. The dominant birch species at Kevo is the mountain birch Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii, whereas B. pubescens ssp. pubescens is very rare, hence we consider the proportion of the southerly B. pubescens‐type pollen deposited in the pollen trap to be non‐local in origin.

We did not observe any trend towards an earlier start of the phenologically observed mountain birch anthesis at Kevo as predicted from work elsewhere. Moreover, the fixed 2.5% threshold method for determining the birch pollen season proved not to be applicable since in many years this threshold was reached before the end of continuous snow cover. The results indicate that in some years non‐local birch pollen contributes considerably to the allergen load in Lapland with up to 57% of the total birch pollen sum being recorded before the day on which local anthesis commenced, and up to 70% of the annual birch pollen deposited being of the southerly birch type.     

A survey on water chemistry and plankton in high mountain lakes in northern Swedish Lapland

A helicopter survey was carried out on 56 water bodies in the Abisko mountains, Swedish Lapland, in August 1981. Water chemistry was found to be highly correlated with bedrock quality in the drainage area of the lakes. Low pH values (down to 5.1) appeared in the neighbourhood of sulphuric iron-ores. Natrium and chloride concentrations showed large scale patterns which can be explained by orographic rainfall. Biologically, northern high mountain conditions are reflected in species composition rather than in biomass or possibly in diversity. Small chrysomonades and dinoflagellates, as well as Keratella hiemalis and Cyclops scutifer characterize the most ‘arctic’ waters. A comparison with data from earlier investigations did not confirm expected signs of acidification.     

Bayesian calibration of the Unified budburst model in six temperate tree species

Numerous phenology models developed to predict the budburst date of trees have been merged into one Unified model (Chuine, 2000, J. Theor. Biol. 207, 337–347). In this study, we tested a simplified version of the Unified model (Unichill model) on six woody species. Budburst and temperature data were available for five sites across Belgium from 1957 to 1995. We calibrated the Unichill model using a Bayesian calibration procedure, which reduced the uncertainty of the parameter coefficients and quantified the prediction uncertainty. The model performance differed among species. For two species (chestnut and black locust), the model showed good performance when tested against independent data not used for calibration. For the four other species (beech, oak, birch, ash), the model performed poorly. Model performance improved substantially for most species when using site-specific parameter coefficients instead of across-site parameter coefficients. This suggested that budburst is influenced by local environment and/or genetic differences among populations. Chestnut, black locust and birch were found to be temperature-driven species, and we therefore analyzed the sensitivity of budburst date to forcing temperature in those three species. Model results showed that budburst advanced with increasing temperature for 1–3 days °C⁻¹, which agreed with the observed trends. In synthesis, our results suggest that the Unichill model can be successfully applied to chestnut and black locust (with both across-site and site-specific calibration) and to birch (with site-specific calibration). For other species, temperature is not the only determinant of budburst and additional influencing factors will need to be included in the model.