Ontogenetic patterns in heritable variation for body size: using random regression models in a wild ungulate population

Body size is an important determinant of fitness in many organisms. While size will typically change over the lifetime of an individual, heritable components of phenotypic variance may also show ontogenetic variation. We estimated genetic (additive and maternal) and environmental covariance structures for a size trait (June weight) measured over the first 5 years of life in a natural population of bighorn sheep Ovis canadensis. We also assessed the utility of random regression models for estimating these structures. Additive genetic variance was found for June weight, with heritability increasing over ontogeny because of declining environmental variance. This pattern, mirrored at the phenotypic level, likely reflects viability selection acting on early size traits. Maternal genetic effects were significant at ages 0 and 1, having important evolutionary implications for early weight, but declined with age being negligible by age 2. Strong positive genetic correlations between age-specific traits suggest that selection on June weight at any age will likely induce positively correlated responses across ontogeny. Random regression modeling yielded similar results to traditional methods. However, by facilitating more efficient data use where phenotypic sampling is incomplete, random regression should allow better estimation of genetic (co)variances for size and growth traits in natural populations.     

Genetic parameter estimates for pre-weaning performance and reproduction traits in Markhoz goats

Genetic parameters for growth, mortality and reproductive performances of Markhoz goats were estimated from data collected during 1993–2010 at Markhoz goat Performance Testing Station in Sanandaj, Iran. For kid performance traits 3763 records were available for birth weight (BW), 2931 for weaning weight (WW), average daily gain (ADG) and Kleiber ratio (KR) (approximated as ADW/WW^0.75) and 3032 for pre-weaning mortality (PWM). For doe reproductive performance traits there were 2920 records available for litter size at birth (LSB), litter size at weaning (LSW), total litter weight at birth (TLWB) and litter mean weight per kid born (LMWKB), and 2182 for total litter weight at weaned (TLWW) and litter mean weight per kid weaned (LMWKW). Genetic parameters were estimated with univariate and bivariate models using restricted maximum likelihood (REML) procedures. Random effects were explored by fitting additive direct genetic effects, maternal additive genetic effects, maternal permanent environmental effects, the covariance between direct and maternal genetic effects, and common litter effects in different models for pre-weaning traits of kids. Also, in addition to an animal model, sire and threshold models, using a logit link function, were used for analyses of PWM. Models for LSB, LSW, TLWB, TLWW, LMWKB, and LMWKW included direct additive genetic effects, permanent environmental effects due to the animal as well as service sire effects. Estimated direct heritabilities were moderate for pre-weaning traits (0.22 for BW, 0.16 for WW, 0.21 for ADG, and 0.27 for KR and 0.29 for PWM), and low for reproduction traits (0.01 for LSB, 0.01 for LSW, 0.02 for TLWB, 0.03 for TLWW, 0.07 for LMWKB, and 0.06 for LMWKW). The estimates for the maternal additive genetic variance ratios were lower than direct heritability for BW (0.07) and KR (0.04). The estimate for the maternal permanent environmental variance ratios (c²) varied from 0.01 for KR to 0.07 for WW and ADG. The magnitude of common litter variance ratios (l²) was more substantial for BW (0.46) than the PWM (0.19) and KR (0.16). The estimate for the permanent environmental variance due to the animal (c²) ranged from 0.03 for LMWKB to 0.07 for TLWB and LMWKW, whereas service sire effects (s²) ranged from 0.02 to 0.04. The correlation between direct and maternal genetic effects were negative and high for BW (?0.51) and KR (?0.62). The genetic correlations between pre-weaning growth traits were positive and moderate to strong, as were genetic correlations between reproductive traits. Between BW and PWM the correlation was ?0.35. Phenotypic and environmental correlations for all traits were generally lower than genetic correlations.     

The genetic architecture of maternal effects across ontogeny in the red deer

Maternal effects, either environmental or genetic in origin, are an underappreciated source of phenotypic variance in natural populations. Maternal genetic effects have the potential to constrain or enhance the evolution of offspring traits depending on their magnitude and their genetic correlation with direct genetic effects. We estimated the maternal effect variance and its genetic component for 12 traits expressed over the life history in a pedigreed population of wild red deer (morphology, survival/longevity, breeding success). We only found support for maternal genetic effect variance in the two neonatal morphological traits: birth weight ( = 0.31) and birth leg length ( = 0.17). For these two traits, the genetic correlation between maternal and direct additive effects was not significantly different from zero, indicating no constraint to evolution from genetic architecture. In contrast, variance in maternal genetic effects enhanced the additive genetic variance available to respond to natural selection. Maternal effect variance was negligible for late-life traits. We found no evidence for sex differences in either the direct or maternal genetic architecture of offspring traits. Our results suggest that maternal genetic effect variance declines over the lifetime, but also that this additional heritable genetic variation may facilitate evolutionary responses of early-life traits.     

Maternal effects and the potential for evolution in a natural population of animals

Maternal effects are widespread and can have dramatic influences on evolutionary dynamics, but their genetic basis has been measured rarely in natural populations. We used cross-fostering techniques and a long-term study of a natural population of red squirrels, Tamiasciurus hudsonicus, to estimate both direct (heritability) and indirect (maternal) influences on the potential for evolution. Juvenile growth in both body mass and size had significant amounts of genetic variation (mass h(2) = 0.10; size h(2) = 0.33), but experienced large, heritable maternal effects. Growth in body mass also had a large positive covariance between direct and maternal genetic effects. The consideration of these indirect genetic effects revealed a greater than three-fold increase in the potential for evolution of growth in body mass (h(2)t = 0.36) relative to that predicted by heritability alone. Simple heritabilities, therefore, may severely underestimate or overestimate the potential for evolution in natural populations of animals.     

QUANTITATIVE GENETICS OF SIZE AND PHENOLOGY OF LIFE-HISTORY TRAITS IN CHAMAECRISTA FASCICULATA

Despite numerous adaptive scenarios concerning the evolution of plant life-history phenologies few studies have examined the heritable basis for and genetic correlations among these phenologies. Documentation of genetic variation for and covariation among reproductive phenologies is important because it is this variation/covariation that will determine the potential for response to evolutionary forces. To address this problem, I conducted a breeding experiment to determine narrow-sense heritabilities for and genetic correlations among the phenologies of life-history events and plant size in Chamaecristafasciculata, a temperate summer annual plant species. Paternal families showed no evidence of heritable variation for two estimates of plant size, six measures of reproductive phenology or two fitness components. Similarly, paternal estimates of genetic correlations among these traits were low or zero. In contrast, maternal estimates of heritability suggested the influence of maternal parent on one estimate of plant size and four phenological traits. Likewise, maternal effects influenced maternal estimates of genetic correlations. These maternal effects can arise from three sources: endosperm nuclear, cytoplasmic genetic and/or maternal phenotypic. The degree to which the phenology of one life-history trait acts as a constraint on the evolution of other phenological traits depends on the source of the maternal influence in this species.     

Shifting patterns in genetic control at the embryo-alevin boundary in brook charr

Maternal inputs to offspring early in development are initially high but the process of development suggests that ontogenetic shifts in the importance of maternal genetic variation relative to other sources should occur. We investigated additive genetic variance and covariance for direct (animal), sire, and maternal effects on embryonic length (EL), yolk sac volume (YSV), and alevin (after yolk sac resorption) length (AL) for 460 embryonic and 460 alevin brook charr (Salvelinus fontinalis) in 23 half-sib families (12 sires, 23 dams). There were no additive genetic effects of sires or individual animals on their own phenotype using sire-dam and maternal-animal models for YSV or EL (h(a)2 < 0.05). However, at the alevin stage we detected low but significant heritability for AL (h(a)2 = 0.14 +/- 0.11). Conversely, maternal genetic effects were high for both embryonic traits (h(EL)2 = 0.61 +/- 0.05; h(YSU)2 = 0.57 +/- 0.06) but faded rapidly for postresorption length (h(AL)2 = 0.18 +/- 0.04). Maternal effects in the sire-dam model corresponded highly with those in the animal-dam model. We did not detect significant genetic covariance between progeny and dams for preresorption traits or between sires and dams for any trait. However, following resorption of the yolk sac, the genetic value of dams for AL was negatively correlated with that of individual progeny (r(m,a) = -0.38 +/- 0.13), suggesting trade-offs and/or stabilizing selection between maternal and animal genetic trait value. This finding was supported by models of dam fecundity on offspring length and dam weight in phenotypic space. Heritability estimates using simple regression of embryo phenotype on adult parental phenotype produced upwardly biased estimates of genetic variance (h2 > 1.0). We propose that development through the embryo-alevin boundary may be a major point in salmonids for ontogenetic changes in the genetic architecture of embryo size from maternal genetic effects to those of the individual organism, and that maternal-offspring conflicts in resource allocation related to size may be partially indicated by negative genetic covariance.     

Small‐scale spatial variation in evolvability for life‐history traits in the storm petrel

The evolutionary potential in the timing of recruitment and reproduction may be crucial for the ability of populations to buffer against environmental changes, allowing them to avoid unfavourable breeding conditions. The evolution of a trait in a local population is determined by its heritability and selection. In the present study, we performed pedigree‐based quantitative genetic analyses for two life‐history traits (recruiting age and laying date) using population data of the storm petrel over an 18‐year period in two adjacent breeding colonies (only 150 m apart) that share the same environmental conditions. In both traits, natal colony effect was the main source of the phenotypic variation among individuals, and cohort variance for recruitment age and additive genetic variance for laying date were natal colony‐specific. We found significant heritability only in laying date and, more specifically, only in birds born in one of the colonies. The difference in genetic variance between the colonies was statistically significant. Interestingly, selection on earlier breeding birds was detected only in the colony in which heritable variation in laying date was found. Therefore, local evolvability for a life‐history trait may vary within a unexpectedly small spatial scale, through the diversifying natural selection and insulating gene flow. © 2012 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2012, 106 , 439–446.     

Effects of the demographic transition on the genetic variances and covariances of human life‐history traits

The recent demographic transitions to lower mortality and fertility rates in most human societies have led to changes and even quick reversals in phenotypic selection pressures. This can only result in evolutionary change if the affected traits are heritable, but changes in environmental conditions may also lead to subsequent changes in the genetic variance and covariance (the G matrix) of traits. It currently remains unclear if there have been concomitant changes in the G matrix of life‐history traits following the demographic transition. Using 300 years of genealogical data from Finland, we found that four key life‐history traits were heritable both before and after the demographic transition. The estimated heritabilities allow a quantifiable genetic response to selection during both time periods, thus facilitating continued evolutionary change. Further, the G matrices remained largely stable but revealed a trend for an increased additive genetic variance and thus evolutionary potential of the population after the transition. Our results demonstrate the validity of predictions of evolutionary change in human populations even after the recent dramatic environmental change, and facilitate predictions of how our biology interacts with changing environments, with implications for global public health and demography.     

Genetic variability of body weight in two goose strains under long-term selection

Body weight is one of the most important traits in any genetic improvement program in geese for at least 2 reasons. First, measurements of the trait are very easy. Second, body weight is correlated with a number of other meat performance traits. However, the genetic background of body weight shows considerable complexity. Three genetic models (with direct, maternal genetic and permanent maternal environmental effects) were employed in this study. Records of 3076 individuals of maternal strain W11 and 2656 individuals of paternal strain W33 over 6 consecutive generations, kept in the pedigree farm of Ko?uda Wielka, were analysed. Body weight (in kilograms) was measured in weeks 8 (BW8) and 11 (BW11). The inbreeding levels in both populations were relatively low (0.14% and 0.02% for W11 and W33, respectively), therefore these effects were not included in the linear models to estimate genetic parameters. Three fixed effects (hatch period, sex and year) were included in each linear model. Two criteria (AIC, BIC) were used to check the goodness of fit of the models. The computations were performed by WOMBAT software. In general, the genetic parameter estimates varied across the traits, models and strains studied. Direct additive heritability estimates ranged from 0.0001 (for BW11 of W33) to 0.55 (for BW11 of W33). Maternal and total heritabilities were also variable. Estimates of ratios of direct-maternal effect covariance in phenotypic variance were both positive and negative, but they were negligible, whereas ratios of the permanent environmental maternal variance to phenotypic variance were close to zero. Both of the applied criteria of model adequacy indicate that the model with maternal genetic and environmental effects should be considered as optimal. Genetic trends were close to zero. It seems that they were influenced by long-term selection. Similar tendencies have been observed for phenotypic trends, as well.     

Lifetime selection on heritable life-history traits in a natural population of red squirrels

Abstract Despite their importance in evolutionary biology, heritability and the strength of natural selection have rarely been estimated in wild populations of iteroparous species or have usually been limited to one particular event during an organism's lifetime. Using an animal-model restricted maximum likelihood and phenotypic selection models, we estimated quantitative genetic parameters and the strength of lifetime selection on parturition date and litter size at birth in a natural population of North American red squirrels, Tamiasciurus hudsonicus. Litter size at birth and parturition date had low heritabilities ( h² = 0.15 and 0.16, respectively). We considered potential effects of temporal environmental covariances between phenotypes and fitness and of spatial environmental heterogeneity in estimates of selection. Selection favored early breeders and females that produced litter sizes close to the population average. Stabilizing selection on litter size at birth may occur because of a trade-off between number of offspring produced per litter and offspring survival or a trade-off between a female's fecundity and her future reproductive success and survival.     

Quantitative genetics of larval life-history traits in Rana temporaria in different environmental conditions

The degree to which genetic variation in a given trait varies among different populations of the same species and across different environments has seldom been quantified in wild vertebrate species. We investigated the expression of genetic variability and maternal effects in three larval life-history traits of the amphibian Rana temporaria. In a factorial laboratory experiment, five widely separated populations (max. 1600 km) were subjected to two different environmental treatments. Animal model analyses revealed that all traits were heritable (h(2) approximately 0.20) in all populations and under most treatment combinations. Although the cross-food treatment genetic correlations were close to unity, heritabilities under a restricted food regime tended to be lower than those under an ad libitum food regime. Likewise, maternal effects (m(2) approximately 0.05) were detected in most traits, and they tended to be most pronounced under restricted food conditions. We detected several cross-temperature genetic and maternal effects correlations that were lower than unity, suggesting that genotype-environment interactions and maternal effect-environment interactions are a significant source of phenotypic variation. The results reinforce the perspective that although the expression of genetic and maternal effects may be relatively homogeneous across different populations of the same species, local variation in environmental conditions can lead to significant variation in phenotypic expression of quantitative traits through genotype-environment and maternal effect-environment interactions.     

Quantitative Genetics of Drosophila Melanogaster. II. Heritabilities and Genetic Correlations between Sexes for Head and Thorax Traits

A quantitative genetic analysis is reported for traits on the head and thorax of adult fruit flies, Drosophila melanogaster. Females are larger than males, and the magnitude of sexual dimorphism is similar for traits derived from the same imaginal disc, but the level of sexual dimorphism varies widely across discs. The greatest difference between males and females occurs for the dimensions of the sclerotized mouthparts of the proboscis. Most of the traits studied are highly heritable with heritabilities ranging from 0.26 to 0.84 for males and 0.27 to 0.81 for females. In general, heritabilities are slightly higher for males, possibly reflecting the effect of dosage compensation on X-linked variance. The X chromosome contributes substantially to variance for many of these traits, and including results reported elsewhere, the variance for over two-thirds of the traits studied includes X-linked variance. The genetic correlations between sexes for the same trait are generally high and close to unity. Coupled with the small differences in the traits between sexes for heritabilities and phenotypic variances, these results suggest that selection would be very slow to change the level of sexual dimorphism in size of various body parts.     

Genetic and environmental effects on morphology and fluctuating asymmetry in nestling barn swallows

A barn swallow Hirundo rustica partial cross‐fostering experiment with simultaneous brood size manipulation was conducted in two years with contrasting weather conditions, to estimate heritable variation in tarsus, tail and wing size and fluctuating asymmetry. Environmental stress had contrasting effects depending on trait type. Significant heritabilities for tarsus, tail and wing size were found only in enlarged broods irrespective of year effects, while tarsus asymmetry was significantly heritable in the year with benign weather conditions irrespective of brood size manipulation effects. Tail, wing and composite (multicharacter) asymmetry were never significantly heritable. The environment with the higher heritability generally had higher additive genetic variance and lower environmental variance, irrespective of trait type. Heritability was larger for trait size than for trait asymmetry. Patterns of genetic variation in nestlings do not necessarily translate to the juvenile or adult stage, as indicated by lack of correlation between nestling and fledgling traits.     

Epistasis affecting litter size in mice

Litter size is an important reproductive trait as it makes a major contribution to fitness. Generally, traits closely related to fitness show low heritability perhaps because of the corrosive effects of directional natural selection on the additive genetic variance. Nonetheless, low heritability does not imply, necessarily, a complete absence of genetic variation because genetic interactions (epistasis and dominance) contribute to variation in traits displaying strong heterosis in crosses, such as litter size. In our study, we investigated the genetic architecture of litter size in 166 females from an F2 intercross of the SM/J and LG/J inbred mouse strains. Litter size had a low heritability (h2 = 12%) and a low repeatability (r = 33%). Using interval-mapping methods, we located two quantitative trait loci (QTL) affecting litter size at locations D7Mit21 + 0 cM and D12Mit6 + 8 cM, on chromosomes 7 and 12 respectively. These QTL accounted for 12.6% of the variance in litter size. In a two-way genome-wide epistasis scan we found eight QTL interacting epistatically involving chromosomes 2, 4, 5, 11, 14, 15 and 18. Taken together, the QTL and their interactions explain nearly 49% (39.5% adjusted multiple r2) of the phenotypic variation for litter size in this cross, an increase of 36% over the direct effects of the QTL. This indicates the importance of epistasis as a component of the genetic architecture of litter size and fitness in our intercross population.     

SELECTION ON MOTHERS AND OFFSPRING: WHOSE PHENOTYPE IS IT AND DOES IT MATTER?

Reproductive and early life-history traits can be considered aspects of either offspring or maternal phenotype, and their evolution will therefore depend on selection operating through offspring and maternal components of fitness. Furthermore, selection at these levels may be antagonistic, with optimal offspring and maternal fitness occurring at different phenotypic values. We examined selection regimes on the correlated traits of birth weight, birth date, and litter size in Soay sheep (Ovis aries) using data from a long-term study of a free-living population on the archipelago of St. Kilda, Scotland. We tested the hypothesis that selective constraints on the evolution of the multivariate phenotype arise through antagonistic selection, either acting at offspring and maternal levels, or on correlated aspects of phenotype. All three traits were found to be under selection through variance in short-term and lifetime measures of fitness. Analysis of lifetime fitness revealed strong positive directional selection on birth weight and weaker selection for increased birth date at both levels. However, there was also evidence for stabilizing selection on these traits at the maternal level, with reduced fitness at high phenotypic values indicating lower phenotypic optima for mothers than for offspring. Additionally, antagonistic selection was found on litter size. From the offspring's point of view it is better to be born a singleton, whereas maternal fitness increases with average litter size. The decreased fitness of twins is caused by their reduced birth weight; therefore, this antagonistic selection likely results from trade-offs between litter size and birth weight that have different optimal resolutions with respect to offspring and maternal fitness. Our results highlight how selection regimes may vary depending on the assignment of reproductive and early life-history traits to either offspring or maternal phenotype.     

Inheritance of size and shape in a natural population of collared flycatchers,Ficedula albicollis

Four external skeletal and three feather dimensions were measured on adult collared flycatchers (Ficedula albicollis) and their adult offspring. By using mid-offspring-midparent regressions, all traits were found to be heritable with an arithmetic mean heritability of 0.46. Heritability estimates from full-sib analyses were about 1.5 times higher (mean 0.67), indicating that variation in traits was affected by shared nest environment among full-sibs. The overall body size as measured by principal component one (PC1) was found to be heritable (h² = 0.40). However, this multivariate measure of heritability was not significant in offspring-father comparison, while highly so in offspring-mother comparison (h² = 0.60). Low offspring-father resemblance was evident also in univariate estimates of heritability. Possible causes of this (extra-pair copulations, maternal effects, sex-linked variance) are discussed. Genetic correlations among seven traits were estimated to be low (mean 0.22), and of similar magnitude or higher than phenotypic correlations (mean 0.18). All genetic correlations were positive. Genetic and phenotypic correlations as well as covariances were fairly similar to each other (r = 0.85 and r = 0.87, respectively). Environmental correlations did not follow the pattern of genetic correlations (r = 0.11), but were more similar to phenotypic correlations (r = 0.60). Given the low genetic correlations and moderate heritabilities, the overall conclusion is that the external morphology of collared flycatchers is largely under additive genetic control and that there is a strong potential for evolutionary change in morphology even under complex multivariate selection.     

Mapping quantitative trait Loci underlying fitness-related traits in a free-living sheep population

We searched for quantitative trait loci (QTL) underlying fitness-related traits in a free-living pedigree of 588 Soay sheep in which a genetic map using 251 markers with an average spacing of 15 cM had been established previously. Traits examined included birth date and weight, considered both as maternal and offspring traits, foreleg length, hindleg length, and body weight measured on animals in August and jaw length and metacarpal length measured on cleaned skeletal material. In some cases the data were split to consider different age classes separately, yielding a total of 15 traits studied. Genetic and environmental components of phenotypic variance were estimated for each trait and, for those traits showing nonzero heritability (N= 12), a QTL search was conducted by comparing a polygenic model with a model including a putative QTL. Support for a QTL at genome-wide significance was found on chromosome 11 for jaw length; suggestive QTL were found on chromosomes 2 and 5 (for birth date as a trait of the lamb), 8 (birth weight as a trait of the lamb), and 15 (adult hindleg length). We discuss the prospects for refining estimates of QTL position and effect size in the study population, and for QTL searches in free-living pedigrees in general.     

Quantitative genetics of bioenergetics and growth-related traits in the wild mammal, Phyllotis darwini

We studied the potential for response to selection in typical physiological-thermoregulatory traits of mammals such as maximum metabolic rate (MMR), nonshivering thermogenesis (NST) and basal metabolic rate (BMR) on cold-acclimated animals. We used an animal model approach to estimate both narrow-sense heritabilities (h2) and genetic correlations between physiological and growth-related traits. Univariate analyses showed that MMR presented high, significant heritability (h2 = 0.69 +/- 0.35, asymptotic standard error), suggesting the potential for microevolution in this variable. However, NST and BMR presented low, nonsignificant h2, and NST showed large maternal/common environmental/nonadditive effects (c2 = 0.34 +/- 0.17). Heritabilities were large and significant (h2 > 0.5) for all growth-related traits (birth mass, growth rate, weaning mass). The only significant genetic correlations we found between a physiological trait and a growth-related trait was between NST and birth mass (r = -0.74; P < 0.05). Overall, these results suggest that additive genetic variance is present in several bioenergetic traits, and that genetic correlations could be present between those different kinds of traits.     

Fixed‐effect variance and the estimation of repeatabilities and heritabilities: issues and solutions

Linear mixed‐effects models are frequently used for estimating quantitative genetic parameters, including the heritability, as well as the repeatability, of traits. Heritability acts as a filter that determines how efficiently phenotypic selection translates into evolutionary change, whereas repeatability informs us about the individual consistency of phenotypic traits. As quantities of biological interest, it is important that the denominator, the phenotypic variance in both cases, reflects the amount of phenotypic variance in the relevant ecological setting. The current practice of quantifying heritabilities and repeatabilities from mixed‐effects models frequently deprives their denominator of variance explained by fixed effects (often leading to upward bias of heritabilities and repeatabilities), and it has been suggested to omit fixed effects when estimating heritabilities in particular. We advocate an alternative option of fitting models incorporating all relevant effects, while including the variance explained by fixed effects into the estimation of the phenotypic variance. The approach is easily implemented and allows optimizing the estimation of phenotypic variance, for example by the exclusion of variance arising from experimental design effects while still including all biologically relevant sources of variation. We address the estimation and interpretation of heritabilities in situations in which potential covariates are themselves heritable traits of the organism. Furthermore, we discuss complications that arise in generalized and nonlinear mixed models with fixed effects. In these cases, the variance parameters on the data scale depend on the location of the intercept and hence on the scaling of the fixed effects. Integration over the biologically relevant range of fixed effects offers a preferred solution in those situations.     

Quantitative genetics of growth and cryptic evolution of body size in an island population

While evolution occurs when selection acts on a heritable trait, empirical studies of natural systems have frequently reported phenotypic stasis under these conditions. We performed quantitative genetic analyses of weight and hindleg length in a free-living population of Soay sheep (Ovis aries) to test whether genetic constraints can explain previously reported stasis in body size despite evidence for strong positive directional selection. Genetic, maternal and environmental covariance structures were estimated across ontogeny using random regression animal models. Heritability increased with age for weight and hindleg length, though both measures of size were highly heritable across ontogeny. Genetic correlations among ages were generally strong and uniformly positive, and the covariance structures were also highly integrated across ontogeny. Consequently, we found no constraint to the evolution of larger size itself. Rather we expect size at all ages to increase in response to positive selection acting at any age. Consistent with expectation, predicted breeding values for age-specific size traits have increased over a twenty-year period, while maternal performance for offspring size has declined. Re-examination of the phenotypic data confirmed that sheep are not getting larger, but also showed that there are significant negative trends in size at all ages. The genetic evolution is therefore cryptic, with the response to selection presumably being masked at the phenotypic level by a plastic response to changing environmental conditions. Density-dependence, coupled with systematically increasing population size, may contribute to declining body size but is insufficient to completely explain it. Our results demonstrate that an increased understanding of the genetic basis of quantitative traits, and of how plasticity and microevolution can occur simultaneously, is necessary for developing predictive models of phenotypic change in nature.