Integrating spatial data and shorebird nesting locations to predict the potential future impact of global warming on coastal habitats: A case study on Farasan Islands,Saudi Arabia

One of the expected effects of the global warming is changing coastal habitats by accelerating the rate of sea level rise. Coastal habitats support large number of marine and wetland species including shorebirds (plovers, sandpipers and allies). In this study, we investigate how coastal habitats may be impacted by sea level rise in the Farasan Islands, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. We use Kentish plover Charadrius alexandrinus – a common coastal breeding shorebird – as an ecological model species to predict the influence of sea level rise. We found that any rise of sea level is likely to inundate 11% of Kentish plover nests. In addition, 5% of the coastal areas of Farasan Islands, which support 26% of Kentish plover nests, will be flooded, if sea level rises by one metre. Our results are constrained by the availability of data on both elevation and bird populations. Therefore, we recommend follow-up studies to model the impacts of sea level rise using different elevation scenarios, and the establishment of a monitoring programme for breeding shorebirds and seabirds in Farasan Islands to assess the impact of climate change on their populations.     

Impact of expected climate change on mangroves

There is a consensus of scientific opinion that the activities of man will cause a significant change in the global climate over the next hundred years. The rising level of carbon dioxide and other industrial gases in the atmosphere may lead to global warming with an accompanying rise in sea-level. Mangrove ecosystems grow in the intertidal zones in tropical and sub-tropical regions and are likely to be early indicators of the effects of climate change. The best estimates of predicted climate change in the literature are presented. It is suggested that a rise in mean sea-level may be the most important factor influencing the future distribution of mangroves but that the effect will vary dramatically depending on the local rate of sea-level rise and the availability of sediment to support reestablishment of the mangroves. The predicted rise in mean air temperature will probably be of little consequence to the development of mangroves in general but it may mean that the presence of mangroves will move further north and south, though this will depend on a number of additional factors. The effect of enhanced atmospheric CO₂ on the growth of mangroves is unknown at this time but that there is some evidence that not all species of mangroves will respond similarly. The socio-economic impacts of the effects of climate on mangrove ecosystems may include increased risk of flooding, increased erosion of coast lines, saline intrusion and increased storm surges.     

Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment

Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we identify needs for further research and scope for improvement in this kind of scenario-based exposure analysis.     

Vulnerability of Mediterranean Ecosystems to Long-Term Changes along the Coast of Israel

Although human activity is considered to be a major driving force affecting the distribution and dynamics of Mediterranean ecosystems, the full consequences of projected climate variability and relative sea-level changes on fragile coastal ecosystems for the next century are still unknown. It is unclear how these waterfront ecosystems can be sustained, as well as the services they provide, when relative sea-level rise and global warming are expected to exert even greater pressures in the near future (drought, habitat degradation and accelerated shoreline retreat). Haifa Bay, northern Israel, has recorded a landward sea invasion, with a maximum sea penetration 4,000 years ago, during an important period of urban development and climate instability. Here, we examine the cumulative pressure of climate shifts and relative sea-level changes in order to investigate the patterns and mechanisms behind forest replacement by an open-steppe. We provide a first comprehensive and integrative study for the southern Levant that shows that (i) human impact, through urbanization, has been the main driver behind ecological erosion in the past 4,000 years; (ii) climate pressures have reinforced this impact; and (iii) local coastal changes have played a decisive role in eroding ecosystem resilience. These three parameters, which have closely interacted during the last 4,000 years in Haifa Bay, clearly indicate that for an efficient management of the coastal habitats, anthropogenic pressures linked to urban development must be reduced in order to mitigate the predicted effects of Global Change.     

Consequences of forest fragmentation for the dynamics of bird populations: conceptual issues and the evidence

This paper reviews the consequences of forest fragmentation for the dynamics of bird populations. Owing to high mobility and large home ranges, birds usually perceive fragmented forests in a finegrained manner, i.e. embrace several forest fragments in functional home ranges. On a regional scale, however, coarse-grained clusters of fine-grained fragments (hierarchical fragmentation may sub-divide bird populations into isolated demes, which enter a domain of metapopulation dynamics. Distinctions are made between pure distance-area or population-level effects and more indirect community-level effects due to changes in landscape composition. Distance-area effects, such as insularization and decreasing fragment size, directly prevent dispersal and reduce population size. Landscape effects, such as reduced fragment-matrix and interior-edge ratios, increase the pressure from surrounding predators, competitors, parasites and disease. In short, forest fragmentation can be viewed as a two-step process. Initially, fine-grained fragmentation triggers distance-area and landscape effects on a local scale, which in turn, results in a range retraction of a population to non-fragmented or less fragmented parts of a region. At a certain point, non-fragmented areas become so widely spaced out that regional distance-area effects come into operation, giving rise to metapopulation dynamics. Although few bird metapopulations have yet been documented, metapopulation dynamics probably is a common characteristic of bird populations confined to 'hierarchical' fragmented forests.     

Ecosystem recharge by volcanic dust drives broad‐scale variation in bird abundance

Across the globe, deserts and volcanic eruptions produce large volumes of atmospheric dust, and the amount of dust is predicted to increase with global warming. The effects of long‐distance airborne dust inputs on ecosystem productivity are potentially far‐reaching but have primarily been measured in soil and plants. Airborne dust could also drive distribution and abundance at higher trophic levels, but opportunities to explore these relationships are rare. Here we use Iceland's steep dust deposition gradients to assess the influence of dust on the distribution and abundance of internationally important ground‐nesting bird populations. Surveys of the abundance of breeding birds at 729 locations throughout lowland Iceland were used to explore the influence of dust deposition on bird abundance in agricultural, dry, and wet habitats. Dust deposition had a strong positive effect on bird abundance across Iceland in dry and wet habitats, but not in agricultural land where nutrient levels are managed. The abundance of breeding waders, the dominant group of terrestrial birds in Iceland, tripled on average between the lowest and highest dust deposition classes in both wet and dry habitats. The deposition and redistribution of volcanic materials can have powerful impacts in terrestrial ecosystems and can be a major driver of the abundance of higher trophic‐level organisms at broad spatial scales. The impacts of volcanic ash deposition during eruptions and subsequent redistribution of unstable volcanic materials are strong enough to override effects of underlying variation in organic matter and clay content on ecosystem fertility. Global rates of atmospheric dust deposition are likely to increase with increasing desertification and glacier retreat, and this study demonstrates that the effects on ecosystems are likely to be far‐reaching, both in terms of spatial scales and ecosystem components.     

Managed retreat of settlements and infrastructures: ecological restoration as an opportunity to overcome maladaptive coastal development in France

The effects of climate change on coastal risk factors are increasing due to both rising sea levels and increasingly intense coastal floodings. However, these changes are only just beginning to be incorporated into planning strategies for coastal economies and land use in France. Recent coastal storms marked the turning point, and public authorities have now started to revise coastal management legislation, stating that the managed retreat of settlements and infrastructure is the preferred strategy to adapt to climate change. To date, this managed retreat has almost exclusively been discussed in relation to the current political, social, and economic obstacles that make it difficult to relocate equipment and houses inland. Here, we add to this discussion by depicting how the careful ecological restoration of dunes and salt marshes on land made available by managed retreat could overcome some of these obstacles. First, we describe three possible strategies to adapt to sea‐level rise as well as the maladaptation of the current strategy. Then, we focus on the limitations and advantages of ecological restoration in terms of managed retreat and vice versa. Finally, we depict how a new kind of land lease, introduced in draft legislation, can help tackle the multitemporal and multispatial issues that currently hinder managed retreat.     

Climate change and loss of saltmarshes: consequences for birds

Saltmarshes are areas of vegetation subject to tidal inundation and are important to birds for several reasons. Saltmarshes are areas of high primary productivity and their greatest significance for coastal birds is probably as the base of estuarine food webs, because saltmarshes export considerable amounts of organic carbon to adjacent habitats, particularly to the invertebrates of mudflats. In addition, saltmarshes are of direct importance to birds by providing sites for feeding, nesting and roosting. Climate change can affect saltmarshes in a number of ways, including through sea-level rise. When sea-level rises the marsh vegetation moves upward and inland but sea walls that prevent this are said to lead to coastal squeeze and loss of marsh area. However, evidence from southeast England, and elsewhere, indicates that sea-level rise does not necessarily lead to loss of marsh area because marshes accrete vertically and maintain their elevation with respect to sea-level where the supply of sediment is sufficient. Organogenic marshes and those in areas where sediment may be more limiting (e.g. some west coast areas) may be more susceptible to coastal squeeze, as may other marshes, if some extreme predictions of accelerated rates of sea-level rise are realized.     

Ecological impacts of non-native Pacific oysters (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Crassostrea gigas</Emphasis>) and management measures for protected areas in Europe

Pacific oysters are now one of the most ‘globalised’ marine invertebrates. They dominate bivalve aquaculture production in many regions and wild populations are increasingly becoming established, with potential to displace native species and modify habitats and ecosystems. While some fishing communities may benefit from wild populations, there is now a tension between the continued production of Pacific oysters and risk to biodiversity, which is of particular concern within protected sites. The issue of the Pacific oyster therefore locates at the intersection between two policy areas: one concerning the conservation of protected habitats, the other relating to livelihoods and the socio-economics of coastal aquaculture and fishing communities. To help provide an informed basis for management decisions, we first summarise evidence for ecological impacts of wild Pacific oysters in representative coastal habitats. At local scales, it is clear that establishment of Pacific oysters can significantly alter diversity, community structure and ecosystem processes, with effects varying among habitats and locations and with the density of oysters. Less evidence is available to evaluate regional-scale impacts. A range of management measures have been applied to mitigate negative impacts of wild Pacific oysters and we develop recommendations which are consistent with the scientific evidence and believe compatible with multiple interests. We conclude that all stakeholders must engage in regional decision making to help minimise negative environmental impacts, and promote sustainable industry development.     

Urbanization reduces genetic connectivity in bobcats (Lynx rufus) at both intra– and interpopulation spatial scales

Urbanization is a major factor driving habitat fragmentation and connectivity loss in wildlife. However, the impacts of urbanization on connectivity can vary among species and even populations due to differences in local landscape characteristics, and our ability to detect these relationships may depend on the spatial scale at which they are measured. Bobcats (Lynx rufus) are relatively sensitive to urbanization and the status of bobcat populations is an important indicator of connectivity in urban coastal southern California. We genotyped 271 bobcats at 13,520 SNP loci to conduct a replicated landscape resistance analysis in five genetically distinct populations. We tested urban and natural factors potentially influencing individual connectivity in each population separately, as well as study–wide. Overall, landscape genomic effects were most frequently detected at the study–wide spatial scale, with urban land cover (measured as impervious surface) having negative effects and topographic roughness having positive effects on gene flow. The negative effect of urban land cover on connectivity was also evident when populations were analyzed separately despite varying substantially in spatial area and the proportion of urban development, confirming a pervasive impact of urbanization largely independent of spatial scale. The effect of urban development was strongest in one population where stream habitat had been lost to development, suggesting that riparian corridors may help mitigate reduced connectivity in urbanizing areas. Our results demonstrate the importance of replicating landscape genetic analyses across populations and considering how landscape genetic effects may vary with spatial scale and local landscape structure.     

Climate change and coastal waterbird populations – past declines and future impacts

Considerable attention has been given to the impact of climate change on avian populations over the last decade. In this paper we examine two issues with respect to coastal bird populations in the UK: (1) is there any evidence that current populations are declining due to climate change, and (2) how might we predict the response of populations in the future? We review the cause of population decline in two species associated with saltmarsh habitats. The abundance of Common Redshank Tringa totanus breeding on saltmarsh declined by about 23% between the mid-1980s and mid-1990s, but the decline appears to have been caused by an increase in grazing pressure. The number of Twite Carduelis flavirostris wintering on the coast of East Anglia has declined dramatically over recent decades; there is evidence linking this decline with habitat loss but a causal role for climate change is unclear. These examples illustrate that climate change could be having population-level impacts now, but also show that it is dangerous to become too narrowly focused on single issues affecting coastal birds. Making predictions about how populations might respond to future climate change depends on an adequate understanding of important ecological processes at an appropriate spatial scale. We illustrate this with recent work conducted on the Icelandic population of Black-tailed Godwits Limosa limosa islandica that shows large-scale regulatory processes. Most predictive models to date have focused on local populations (single estuary or a group of neighbouring estuaries). We discuss the role such models might play in risk assessment, and the need for them to be linked to larger-scale ecological processes. We argue that future work needs to focus on spatial scale issues and on linking physical models of coastal environments with important ecological processes.     

Island biogeography of temporary wetland carabid beetle communities

Aim The study tests if island biogeography is applicable to invertebrate communities of habitat islands in the agricultural landscape that are not fragments of formerly larger habitats. Location Thirty temporary wetlands in the agricultural landscape of northeast Germany. Methods The composition and species richness of carabid beetle communities was analysed. Habitat area, isolation, the density of temporary wetlands in the landscape, land‐use intensity and the maximum duration of flooding were recorded as independent variables. Overall species richness and wetland species richness were studied in independent regression analyses. The community composition was analysed by means of a Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA). A partial CCA was used to analyse the effect of the distance to the edge of the field after removing impacts of other independent variables. Results The area of the habitats and various measures of isolation (mean distances = 81–240 m) did not influence species richness or wetland species richness. The community composition was mainly determined by the land‐use intensity, habitat area did not have significant effects, and the distance to the edge of the field was the only effective isolation parameter. Short‐winged species were more often affected by the distance to the edge of the field than full‐winged species. Main conclusion There is evidence that the distances between the wetlands do not provide an effective barrier to the species dispersal and, therefore, metapopulation structures including subpopulations of multiple temporary wetlands might counteract local area effects on subpopulations. Short‐winged species, however, might be more affected by isolation than full‐winged species. As carabid beetle community structure in most early successional habitats is similar, these results may be representative of many agricultural landscape habitats. Nature conservancy concepts that aim to increase habitat area and habitat connectivity have successfully been applied to fragmented late‐successional habitats. The present study indicates that such concepts do not necessarily result in higher diversity or larger populations in early successional habitats.     

海平面上升影响下广西钦州湾红树林脆弱性评价

全球气候变化所导致的海平面上升等现象对海岸带产生显著影响。红树林是生长在热带、亚热带沿海潮间带的生态系统,对海平面上升极为敏感。以广西钦州湾红树林生态系统为对象,采用SPRC(Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence)评估模式分析了气候变化所导致的海平面上升对红树林生态系统的主要影响。构建了以海平面上升速率、地面沉降/抬升速率、生境高程、日均淹水时间、潮滩坡度和沉积速率为指标的脆弱性评价体系。在GIS平台上量化各脆弱性指标,计算脆弱性指数并分级,建立了定量评价红树林生态系统脆弱性方法,实现了在不同海平面上升情景(近40年来广西海平面平均上升速率、IPCC预测的B1和A1FI情景)和时间尺度下(2030年、2050和2100年),广西钦州湾红树林生态系统脆弱性的定量空间评价。研究结果表明,在近40年广西海平面平均上升速率与B1情景下,钦州湾红树林在各评估时段表现为不脆弱。而在A1FI情景下,至2050年研究区域41.3%红树林为低脆弱,至2100年增加至69.8%。研究采用的SPRC评估模型、脆弱性评价指标体系和定量空间评估方法能够客观定量评价气候变化所导致的海平面上升影响下红树林生态系统脆弱性,可为制定切实可行的应对措施和保障海岸带生态系统安全提供科学依据。     

Spillover edge effects: the dispersal of agriculturally subsidized insect natural enemies into adjacent natural habitats

The cross-edge spillover of subsidized predators from anthropogenic to natural habitats is an important process affecting wildlife, especially bird, populations in fragmented landscapes. However, the importance of the spillover of insect natural enemies from agricultural to natural habitats is unknown, despite the abundance of studies examining movement in the opposite direction. Here, we synthesize studies from various ecological sub-disciplines to suggest that spillover of agriculturally subsidized insect natural enemies may be an important process affecting prey populations in natural habitat fragments. This contention is based on (1) the ubiquity of agricultural-natural edges in human dominated landscapes; (2) the substantial literature illustrating that crop and natural habitats share important insect predators; and (3) the clear importance of the landscape matrix, specifically distance to ecological edges, in influencing predator impacts in agroecosystems. Further support emerges from theory on the importance of cross-boundary subsidies for within site consumer-resource dynamics. In particular, high productivity and temporally variable resource abundance in agricultural systems are predicted to result in strong spillover effects. More empirical work examining the prevalence and significance of such natural enemy spillover will be critical to a broader understanding of fragmentation impacts on insect predator-prey interactions.     

River forcing at work: ecological modeling of prograding and regressive deltas

Two explicit landscape simulation models were used to investigate habitat shifts in coastal Louisiana due to varying river forcing and sea level rise scenarios. Wetland conversion to open water and yearly shifts of marsh habitats in two contrasting estuarine regions were examined; the Atchafalaya delta which is a prograding delta area with strong riverine input, and the Barataria Basin is a regressive delta with high wetland loss which is isolated from riverine input. The models linked several modules dynamically across spatial and temporal scales. Both models consisted of a vertically integrated hydrodynamic model coupled with process-based biological modules of above and below ground primary productivity and soil dynamics. The models explored future effects of possible sea level rise and river diversion plans for 30 and 70-year projections starting in 1988. Results showed that increased river forcing had large land preservation impacts, and indicated that healthy functioning of the Mississippi Delta depends largely on inputs of freshwater, nutrients, and sediments in river water. These types of models are useful for research and as management tools for predicting the effects of regional impacts on structural landscape level changes.     

海平面上升对生态系统服务价值的影响及适应措施

海平面上升导致了海岸线后退、沿海侵蚀、风暴潮加强、生物栖息地改变、湿地变迁等,引起了近海域生态系统服务价值的变化。以美国Hillsborough County为研究区域,应用SLAMM模型,模拟了海平面从2010年—2100年上升1m的情景下各类用地面积的变化,利用效益转移法评价了生态系统服务价值的变化。结果表明:1旱地面积减少3037 hm~2,湿地面积增加3037hm~2,其中河口水域、滩涂、盐沼、定期洪水沼泽面积大幅度增加;季节性洪水沼泽、潮汐淡水沼泽、河流潮汐、沙滩面积大幅度减少,其它类型湿地受影响较小。2湿地总面积的增加反而导致了生态系统服务价值总量的降低,从2010年的61672万美元降低到2100年的61548万美元,这是由于净水湿地和沙滩大面积损失引起的;其中艺术娱乐、水调节、气候调节、文化精神价值将下降,水供应、栖息地保护、干扰调节和废物处理价值将上升。3防护、适应、后退3种措施分别降低、不影响、提升了生态系统服务价值,应根据其适用范围综合应用以制定应对海平面上升的适应性措施。     

Climate Change or Land Use Dynamics: Do We Know What Climate Change Indicators Indicate?

Different components of global change can have interacting effects on biodiversity and this may influence our ability to detect the specific consequences of climate change through biodiversity indicators. Here, we analyze whether climate change indicators can be affected by land use dynamics that are not directly determined by climate change. To this aim, we analyzed three community-level indicators of climate change impacts that are based on the optimal thermal environment and average latitude of the distribution of bird species present at local communities. We used multiple regression models to relate the variation in climate change indicators to: i) environmental temperature; and ii) three landscape gradients reflecting important current land use change processes (land abandonment, fire impacts and urbanization), all of them having forest areas at their positive extremes. We found that, with few exceptions, landscape gradients determined the figures of climate change indicators as strongly as temperature. Bird communities in forest habitats had colder-dwelling bird species with more northern distributions than farmland, burnt or urban areas. Our results show that land use changes can reverse, hide or exacerbate our perception of climate change impacts when measured through community-level climate change indicators. We stress the need of an explicit incorporation of the interactions between climate change and land use dynamics to understand what are current climate change indicators indicating and be able to isolate real climate change impacts.     

Landscape-level toxicant exposure mediates infection impacts on wildlife populations

Anthropogenic landscape modification such as urbanization can expose wildlife to toxicants, with profound behavioural and health effects. Toxicant exposure can alter the local transmission of wildlife diseases by reducing survival or altering immune defence. However, predicting the impacts of pathogens on wildlife across their ranges is complicated by heterogeneity in toxicant exposure across the landscape, especially if toxicants alter wildlife movement from toxicant-contaminated to uncontaminated habitats. We developed a mechanistic model to explore how toxicant effects on host health and movement propensity influence range-wide pathogen transmission, and zoonotic exposure risk, as an increasing fraction of the landscape is toxicant-contaminated. When toxicant-contaminated habitat is scarce on the landscape, costs to movement and survival from toxicant exposure can trap infected animals in contaminated habitat and reduce landscape-level transmission. Increasing the proportion of contaminated habitat causes host population declines from combined effects of toxicants and infection. The onset of host declines precedes an increase in the density of infected hosts in contaminated habitat and thus may serve as an early warning of increasing potential for zoonotic spillover in urbanizing landscapes. These results highlight how sublethal effects of toxicants can determine pathogen impacts on wildlife populations that may not manifest until landscape contamination is widespread.     

Forecasting the effects of sea-level rise at Chongming Dongtan Nature Reserve in the Yangtze Delta,Shanghai, China

Located at the mouth of the Yangtze Estuary, the Chongming Dongtan Nature Reserve is extremely vulnerable to climate change and especially to accelerated sea-level rise. We use a variety of data from remote sensing, an in situ global positioning system (GPS), tidal gauges, nautical charts, geographic spatial analysis modeling and IPCC sea-level rise scenarios to forecast the potential impacts of increased sea level on the coastal wetland habitat at Chongming Dongtan Nature Reserve. The results indicate that around 40% of the terrestrial area of the Dongtan Reserve will be inundated by the year 2100 due to an estimated 0.88 m increase in sea level. In particular, the Scirpus mariqueter communities and bare tidal flats are more vulnerable to sea-level rise. The limitations of this approach and the implication of the results for wetland and ecosystem conservation as well as management are discussed.     

Assessing the Ecological Impacts of Bioenergy Projects

One of the major objectives of the current expansion in bioenergy cropping is to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions for environmental benefit. The cultivation of bioenergy and biofuel crops also affects biodiversity more directly, both positively and negatively. Ecological impact assessment methods for bioenergy projects (including changes to policy and land use) should address not simply changes to species abundance at field level, but include larger scale issues, including changes to landscape diversity, potential impacts to primary and secondary habitats and potential impacts on climate change. Such assessments require a correspondingly broad range of scientific methods, including modelling of climate and land use as well as the observation of biodiversity and landscape indicators. It is also possible to adopt evidence-based guidelines for good practice for situations where comprehensive assessments are not available. These might include favouring projects and policies that avoid gene flow to wild relatives of crops in centres of diversity, that do not result in invasion by the crop into other habitats, that enhance field-scale biodiversity, that increase landscape diversity, that do not threaten valued habitats within the local landscape, that promote the sustainable management of biodiverse habitats, that do not increase the risk of loss of primary habitats and that result in a proportionately large reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.