Conservation genetics of the franciscana dolphin in Northern Argentina: population structure,by-catch impacts,and management implications

Evaluating population structure in the marine environment is a challenging task when the species of interest is continuously distributed, and yet the use of population or stock structure is a crucial component of management and conservation strategies. The franciscana dolphin (Pontoporia blainvillei), a rare endangered coastal cetacean, suffers high levels of by-catch all along its distribution range in the Western South Atlantic, and questions have been raised about boundaries or divisions for population management. Here we apply genetic tools to better understand population structure and migration, sex-biased dispersal, and to assess potential genetic and demographic impacts of by-catch. Our analyses, based on mtDNA control region sequences, reveal significant genetic division at the regional level and fine-scale structure within our study area. These results suggest that the population in northern Buenos Aires is the most isolated population in Argentina. We found no significant departure from an equal sex ratio among the by-caught animals. A few cases of multiple entanglements appeared to be mother–calf pairs based on field observations and individuals sharing the same mtDNA control region lineage. The distribution of haplotype frequencies observed could imply that some maternal lineages are more prone to be subject to higher rates of by-catch, although biopsy sampling is necessary to fully evaluate whether maternal lineage distributions are the same for biopsy sampled and by-caught animals. A genetic indication of population size disequilibrium was detected for all populations in Argentina, which is consistent with available rates of by-catch and abundance estimates. Collectively, our findings support the current scheme of larger recognized Franciscana Management Areas (FMA), but argue for a finer-scale subdivision within Northern Buenos Aires region (FMA IV). Finally, an integrated approach to promote conservation of this endangered small cetacean has to involve identification of genetic and demographic threats, a more sustainable fishery strategy to reduce by-catch, and designation of protected areas that are supported by underlying population structure for franciscana dolphins.     

Molecular identification of small cetacean samples from Peruvian fish markets

In the last 60 years, incidental entanglement in fishing gears (so called by-catch) became the main cause of mortality worldwide for small cetaceans and is pushing several populations and species to the verge of extinction. Thus, monitoring and quantifying by-catches is an important step towards proper and sustainable management of cetacean populations. Continuous studies indicated that by-catches and directed takes of small cetaceans in Peru greatly increased since 1985. Legal measures banning cetacean takes, enforced in 1994 and 1996, ironically made monitoring highly problematic as fishers continue catching these animals but utilize or dispose of carcasses clandestinely. Hence, in locations where cetaceans are landed covertly or already butchered, molecular genetic methods can provide the only means of identification of the species, sex, and sometimes the population of each sample. Here, we generate and analyse a fragment of the mitochondrial DNA cytochrome b gene and 5 nuclear microsatellite markers from 182 meat and skin samples of unidentified small cetaceans collected at three Peruvian markets between July 2006 and April 2007. Our results, compared to past surveys, indicate that Lagenorhynchus obscurus, Phocoena spinipinnis, Tursiops truncatus, Delphinus capensis, and D. delphis continue to be caught and marketed, but that the relative incidence of P. spinipinnis is highly reduced, possibly because of population depletion. The small number of possible sampling duplicates demonstrates that a high monitoring frequency is required for a thorough evaluation of incidental catches in the area. A wide public debate on by-catch mitigation measures is greatly warranted in Peru.     

Conservation genetics of whales and dolphins

Whales and dolphins (cetaceans) are found in all the world's oceans and in some of the major rivers, yet little is known about the distribution and behaviour of many species. At the same time, cetaceans are under threat from a variety of pressures including direct and indirect takes, pollution, and competition for habitat and prey. To ensure their long-term survival it will be necessary to preserve genetic diversity through the identification and protection of differentiated populations, the assessment of variation within local populations, and through a better understanding of reproductive and dispersal behaviour. The application of molecular genetic techniques is helping to provide answers to some of these previously intractable questions. Early results suggest few consistent patterns. Obvious geographic boundaries correlate to genetic distance in some species, and not in others. Furthermore, morphological variation within species can be fairly extensive without correlating to genetic distance, or relatively minor between morphotypes that are as genetically distinct as some species. These examples emphasize the need for further study.     

Assessment of Caspian Seal By-Catch in an Illegal Fishery Using an Interview-Based Approach

The Caspian seal (Pusa caspica) has declined by more than 90% since 1900 and is listed as endangered by IUCN. We made the first quantitative assessment of Caspian seal by-catch mortality in fisheries in the north Caspian Sea by conducting semi-structured interviews in fishing communities along the coasts of Russia (Kalmykia, Dagestan), Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. We recorded a documented minimum by-catch of 1,215 seals in the survey sample, for the 2008–2009 fishing season, 93% of which occurred in illegal sturgeon fisheries. Due to the illegal nature of the fishery, accurately quantifying total fishing effort is problematic and the survey sample could reflect less than 10% of poaching activity in the north Caspian Sea. Therefore total annual by-catch may be significantly greater than the minimum documented by the survey. The presence of high by-catch rates was supported independently by evidence of net entanglement from seal carcasses, during a mass stranding on the Kazakh coast in May 2009, where 30 of 312 carcasses were entangled in large mesh sturgeon net remnants. The documented minimum by-catch may account for 5 to 19% of annual pup production. Sturgeon poaching therefore not only represents a serious threat to Caspian sturgeon populations, but may also be having broader impacts on the Caspian Sea ecosystem by contributing to a decline in one of the ecosystem’s key predators. This study demonstrates the utility of interview-based approaches in providing rapid assessments of by-catch in illegal small-scale fisheries, which are not amenable to study by other methods.     

Inbreeding avoidance influences the viability of reintroduced populations of African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus)

The conservation of many fragmented and small populations of endangered African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) relies on understanding the natural processes affecting genetic diversity, demographics, and future viability. We used extensive behavioural, life-history, and genetic data from reintroduced African wild dogs in South Africa to (1) test for inbreeding avoidance via mate selection and (2) model the potential consequences of avoidance on population persistence. Results suggested that wild dogs avoided mating with kin. Inbreeding was rare in natal packs, after reproductive vacancies, and between sibling cohorts (observed on 0.8%, 12.5%, and 3.8% of occasions, respectively). Only one of the six (16.7%) breeding pairs confirmed as third-order (or closer) kin consisted of animals that were familiar with each other, while no other paired individuals had any prior association. Computer-simulated populations allowed to experience inbreeding had only a 1.6% probability of extinction within 100 years, whereas all populations avoiding incestuous matings became extinct due to the absence of unrelated mates. Populations that avoided mating with first-order relatives became extinct after 63 years compared with persistence of 37 and 19 years for those also prevented from second-order and third-order matings, respectively. Although stronger inbreeding avoidance maintains significantly more genetic variation, our results demonstrate the potentially severe demographic impacts of reduced numbers of suitable mates on the future viability of small, isolated wild dog populations. The rapid rate of population decline suggests that extinction may occur before inbreeding depression is observed.     

Attitudes of Scottish City Inhabitants to Cetacean Conservation

In 2003, a survey was conducted in two major Scottish cities in order to investigate current perceptions of the public towards cetaceans and their conservation. Public concern about cetacean conservation was high. Overall the issues considered to be the greatest threats to cetacean populations were related to pollution: oil spills, and chemical and sewage pollution (serious threat: 68, 65, and 63%, respectively). Concern was also high regarding the depletion of cetacean prey from over-fishing, entanglement in fishing gear, marine litter and global warming, (serious threat: 54, 51, 44, and 43%, respectively). Conservation issues that are of specific concern to Scottish waters were also noted: military activities, fish farming and oil exploration. Least concern was expressed about whale-watching (not a threat: 48%). Women and older respondents expressed significantly higher levels of concern about cetacean conservation. Generally, the opinions of the public were similar to those of a test group of marine conservation professionals and advocates, although the public tended to show slightly greater levels of concern for most issues. However, the public expressed significantly higher levels of concern over oil spills, sewage pollution and chemical pollution than did marine conservation professionals/advocates. Most participants (60%) were unsure as to whether there was currently sufficient legal protection for cetaceans in Scotland, but eight out of ten respondents thought that there should be legislation specifically for cetacean conservation. Moreover, 40% stated that the proposal of a law specifically for the protection of cetaceans would make them view a political party or politician more favourably. Eighty percent of those interviewed were in favour of seeing more marine environmental education, including information on cetaceans and their environment, in the Scottish school curriculum.     

Molecular ecological approaches to studying the evolutionary impact of selective harvesting in wildlife

Harvesting of wildlife populations by humans is usually targeted by sex, age or phenotypic criteria, and is therefore selective. Selective harvesting has the potential to elicit a genetic response from the target populations in several ways. First, selective harvesting may affect population demographic structure (age structure, sex ratio), which in turn may have consequences for effective population size and hence genetic diversity. Second, wildlife-harvesting regimes that use selective criteria based on phenotypic characteristics (e.g. minimum body size, horn length or antler size) have the potential to impose artificial selection on harvested populations. If there is heritable genetic variation for the target characteristic and harvesting occurs before the age of maturity, then an evolutionary response over time may ensue. Molecular ecological techniques offer ways to predict and detect genetic change in harvested populations, and therefore have great utility for effective wildlife management. Molecular markers can be used to assess the genetic structure of wildlife populations, and thereby assist in the prediction of genetic impacts by delineating evolutionarily meaningful management units. Genetic markers can be used for monitoring genetic diversity and changes in effective population size and breeding systems. Tracking evolutionary change at the phenotypic level in the wild through quantitative genetic analysis can be made possible by genetically determined pedigrees. Finally, advances in genome sequencing and bioinformatics offer the opportunity to study the molecular basis of phenotypic variation through trait mapping and candidate gene approaches. With this understanding, it could be possible to monitor the selective impacts of harvesting at a molecular level in the future. Effective wildlife management practice needs to consider more than the direct impact of harvesting on population dynamics. Programs that utilize molecular genetic tools will be better positioned to assess the long-term evolutionary impact of artificial selection on the evolutionary trajectory and viability of harvested populations.     

A proposal to use plant demographic data to assess potential weed biological control agents impacts on non-target plant populations

Weed biocontrol programs aim to reduce the spread and population growth rate of the target plant while stabilizing or increasing populations of those native species considered under threat by invasive plants. This goal is not unique to weed biocontrol but applies to all other invasive plant management techniques, though such information is rarely collected. Without this information, success of management interventions can be ambiguous, and regulatory agencies, the public, policy makers, funders and land managers cannot be held accountable for chosen treatments. A fundamental reform, including use of demographic studies and long-term assessments, are essential to guide weed biocontrol programs. We propose to add use of plant demography (an assessment of how environmental factors and ecological interactions, for example competition, disease or herbivory, may affect plant populations by altering survival, growth, development and reproductive rates of plant individuals) during host specificity risk assessments of potential biological control agents. Demographic models can refine assessments of potential impacts for those plant species that experience some feeding or larval development during host specificity testing. Our proposed approach to focus on impact on plant demography instead of attack on plant individuals is useful in appropriately gauging threats potential weed biocontrol agents may pose to non-target species after field release.     

Demographic and genetic estimates of effective population size (Ne) reveals genetic compensation in steelhead trout

Estimates of effective population size (Ne) are required to predict the impacts of genetic drift and inbreeding on the evolutionary dynamics of populations. How the ratio of Ne to the number of sexually mature adults (N) varies in natural vertebrate populations has not been addressed. We examined the sensitivity of Ne/N to fluctuations of N and determined the major variables responsible for changing the ratio over a period of 17 years in a population of steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) from Washington State. Demographic and genetic methods were used to estimate Ne. Genetic estimates of Ne were gained via temporal and linkage disequilibrium methods using data from eight microsatellite loci. DNA for genetic analysis was amplified from archived smolt scales. The Ne/N from 1977 to 1994, estimated using the temporal method, was 0.73 and the comprehensive demographic estimate of Ne/N over the same time period was 0.53. Demographic estimates of Ne indicated that variance in reproductive success had the most substantial impact on reducing Ne in this population, followed by fluctuations in population size. We found increased Ne/N ratios at low N, which we identified as genetic compensation. Combining the information from the demographic and genetic methods of estimating Ne allowed us to determine that a reduction in variance in reproductive success must be responsible for this compensation effect. Understanding genetic compensation in natural populations will be valuable for predicting the effects of changes in N (i.e. periods of high population density and bottlenecks) on the fitness and genetic variation of natural populations.     

Can we bring Madagascar's critically endangered palms back from the brink? Genetics,ecology and conservation of the critically endangered palm Beccariophoenix madagascariensis

Madagascar has a highly distinctive flora and is one of the world biodiversity hot spots. There are more than 170 species of palms, the majority of which are vulnerable, endangered or critically endangered endemics. Palms are utilized for many human uses, many of which lead to plant death or seed harvesting. Combined with reduced populations resulting from extensive forest clearing, those species which are harvested from the wild are under additional threat of extinction. Species recovery programmes have the potential to save some of the most iconic species before it is too late. This study documented the current known populations of the critically endangered palm Beccariophoenix madagascariensis, a species utilized for both local and international purposes. The study specifically investigated the genetic diversity and inbreeding within populations and the potential differentiation between populations and with the newly described species B. alfredii . We found that despite critically small population sizes there was considerable genetic diversity within populations. We also found that ecologically and or geographically distinct populations were genetically distinct. Populations within 3 km of each other exhibited considerable gene flow, probably owing to seed dispersal. The populations were inbred but reproductive viability had been maintained. Conservation and recovery options are discussed. © 2007 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society , 2007, 154 , 589–608.     

French wasps in the New World: experimental biological control introductions reveal a demographic Allee effect

Many populations introduced into a novel environment fail to establish. One underlying process is the Allee effect, i.e., the difficulty of individuals to survive and reproduce when rare, and the consequently low or negative population growth. Although observations showing a positive relation between initial population size and establishment probability suggest that the Allee effect could be widespread in biological invasions, experimental tests are scarce. Here, we used a biological control program against Diuraphis noxia (Mordvilko) (Hemiptera: Aphididae) in the United States to manipulate initial population size of the introduced parasitoid Aphelinus asychis Walker (Hymenoptera: Aphelinidae) originating from France. For eight populations and three generations after introduction, we studied spatial distribution and spread, density, mate-finding, and population growth. Dispersal was lower in small populations during the first generation. Smaller initial population size nonetheless resulted in lower density during the three generations studied. The proportion of mated females and the population sex ratio were not affected by initial population size or population density. Net reproductive rate decreased with density within each generation, suggesting negative density-dependence. But for a given density, net reproductive rate was smaller in populations initiated with few individuals than in populations initiated with many individuals. Hence, our results demonstrate a demographic Allee effect. Mate-finding is excluded as an underlying mechanism, and other component Allee effects may have been overwhelmed by negative density-dependence in reproduction. Impact of generalist predators could provide one potential explanation for the relationship between initial population size and net reproductive rate. However, the continuing effect of initial population size on population growth suggests genetic processes may have been involved in the observed demographic Allee effect.     

Increased Extinction Potential of Insular Fish Populations with Reduced Life History Variation and Low Genetic Diversity

Theoretical work has shown that reduced phenotypic heterogeneity leads to population instability and can increase extinction potential, yet few examples exist of natural populations that illustrate how varying levels expressed diversity may influence population persistence, particularly during periods of stochastic environmental fluctuation. In this study, we assess levels of expressed variation and genetic diversity among demographically independent populations of tidewater goby (Eucyclogobius newberryi), show that reductions in both factors typically coincide, and describe how low levels of diversity contribute to the extinction risk of these isolated populations. We illustrate that, for this annual species, continuous reproduction is a safeguard against reproductive failure by any one population segment, as natural, stochastically driven salinity increases frequently result in high mortality among juvenile individuals. Several study populations deviated from the natural pattern of year-round reproduction typical for the species, rendering those with severely truncated reproductive periods vulnerable to extinction in the event of environmental fluctuation. In contrast, demographically diverse populations are more likely to persist through such periods through the continuous presence of adults with broader physiological tolerance to abrupt salinity changes. Notably, we found a significant correlation between genetic diversity and demographic variation in the study populations, which could be the result of population stressors that restrict both of these diversity measures simultaneously, or suggestive of a causative relationship between these population characteristics. These findings demonstrate the importance of biocomplexity at the population level, and assert that the maintenance of diversity contributes to population resilience and conservation of this endangered species.     

Evolution of sociality in spiders leads to depleted genomic diversity at both population and species levels

Across several animal taxa, the evolution of sociality involves a suite of characteristics, a “social syndrome,” that includes cooperative breeding, reproductive skew, primary female‐biased sex ratio, and the transition from outcrossing to inbreeding mating system, factors that are expected to reduce effective population size (Ne). This social syndrome may be favoured by short‐term benefits but come with long‐term costs, because the reduction in Ne amplifies loss of genetic diversity by genetic drift, ultimately restricting the potential of populations to respond to environmental change. To investigate the consequences of this social life form on genetic diversity, we used a comparative RAD‐sequencing approach to estimate genomewide diversity in spider species that differ in level of sociality, reproductive skew and mating system. We analysed multiple populations of three independent sister‐species pairs of social inbreeding and subsocial outcrossing Stegodyphus spiders, and a subsocial outgroup. Heterozygosity and within‐population diversity were sixfold to 10‐fold lower in social compared to subsocial species, and demographic modelling revealed a tenfold reduction in Ne of social populations. Species‐wide genetic diversity depends on population divergence and the viability of genetic lineages. Population genomic patterns were consistent with high lineage turnover, which homogenizes the genetic structure that builds up between inbreeding populations, ultimately depleting genetic diversity at the species level. Indeed, species‐wide genetic diversity of social species was 5–8 times lower than that of subsocial species. The repeated evolution of species with this social syndrome is associated with severe loss of genomewide diversity, likely to limit their evolutionary potential.     

The genetic underpinnings of population cyclicity: establishing expectations for the genetic anatomy of cycling populations

Despite extensive research into the mechanisms underlying population cyclicity, we have little understanding of the impacts of numerical fluctuations on the genetic variation of cycling populations. Thus, the potential implications of natural and anthropogenically‐driven variation in population cycle dynamics on the diversity and evolutionary potential of cyclic populations is unclear. Here, we use Canada lynx Lynx canadensis matrix population models, set up in a linear stepping‐stone, to generate demographic replicates of biologically realistic cycling populations. Overall, increasing cycle amplitude predictably reduced genetic diversity and increased genetic differentiation, with cyclic effects increased by population synchrony. Modest dispersal rates (1–3% of the population) between high and low amplitude cyclic populations did not diminish these effects suggesting that spatial variation in cyclic amplitude should be reflected in patterns of genetic diversity and differentiation at these rates. At high dispersal rates (6%) groups containing only high amplitude cyclic populations had higher diversity and lower differentiation than those mixed with low amplitude cyclic populations. Negative density‐dependent dispersal did not impact genetic diversity, but did homogenize populations by reducing differentiation and patterns of isolation by distance. Surprisingly, temporal changes in diversity and differentiation throughout a cycle were not always consistent with population size. In particular, negative density‐dependent dispersal simultaneously decreased differences in genetic diversity while increasing differences in genetic differentiation between numerical peaks and nadirs. Combined, our findings suggest demographic changes at fine temporal scales can impact genetic variation of interacting populations and provide testable predictions relating population cyclicty to genetic variation. Further, our results suggest that including realistic demographic and dispersal parameters in population genetic models and using information from temporal changes in genetic variation could help to discern complex demographic scenarios and illuminate population dynamics at fine temporal scales.     

Relationships between population density,fine-scale genetic structure,mating system and pollen dispersal in a timber tree from African rainforests

Owing to the reduction of population density and/or the environmental changes it induces, selective logging could affect the demography, reproductive biology and evolutionary potential of forest trees. This is particularly relevant in tropical forests where natural population densities can be low and isolated trees may be subject to outcross pollen limitation and/or produce low-quality selfed seeds that exhibit inbreeding depression. Comparing reproductive biology processes and genetic diversity of populations at different densities can provide indirect evidence of the potential impacts of logging. Here, we analysed patterns of genetic diversity, mating system and gene flow in three Central African populations of the self-compatible legume timber species Erythrophleum suaveolens with contrasting densities (0.11, 0.68 and 1.72 adults per ha). The comparison of inbreeding levels among cohorts suggests that selfing is detrimental as inbred individuals are eliminated between seedling and adult stages. Levels of genetic diversity, selfing rates (∼16%) and patterns of spatial genetic structure (Sp ∼0.006) were similar in all three populations. However, the extent of gene dispersal differed markedly among populations: the average distance of pollen dispersal increased with decreasing density (from 200 m in the high-density population to 1000 m in the low-density one). Overall, our results suggest that the reproductive biology and genetic diversity of the species are not affected by current logging practices. However, further investigations need to be conducted in low-density populations to evaluate (1) whether pollen limitation may reduce seed production and (2) the regeneration potential of the species.     

Biological matrices for sampling free‐ranging cetaceans and the implications of their use for reproductive endocrine monitoring

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Genetic changes associated to declining populations of Formica ants in fragmented forest landscape

We monitored populations of two wood ant species, Formica aquilonia and Formica lugubris, through annual mapping of the colonies in a fragmenting forest landscape from 1966 to 1998. The genetic population structure was studied at the end of the study period by using 12 microsatellite loci. Fragmentation of forest led to a decline and spatial redistribution of populations. Changes in the spatial distribution were particularly pronounced in the highly polygynous (many queens in a single nest) species F. aquilonia, whose local populations declined or became extinct, or relocated themselves and colonized new patches. The genetic relationships of the remaining subpopulations indicated the historical developments, revealing the boundaries of the historical populations (high values of genetic differentiation, F(ST)), recolonization histories (genetic affinities revealed by Bayesian analyses) and population decline (reduced variation). Big genetic differences could be detected over short distances, so differentiation also depended on social factors. Our results showed that a genetic study can be reliably used to dissect the recent historical changes underlying the present population structure, and that species with different social structures can respond differently to habitat changes. Combining our demographic and genetic results suggests that habitat fragmentation forms a clear threat on a local scale with large negative effects on ant population viability.     

Physiological tipping points in the relationship between foraging success and lifetime fitness of a long-lived mammal

Although anthropogenic change is often gradual, the impacts on animal populations may be precipitous if physiological processes create tipping points between energy gain, reproduction or survival. We use 25 years of behavioural, diet and demographic data from elephant seals to characterise their relationships with lifetime fitness. Survival and reproduction increased with mass gain during long foraging trips preceding the pupping seasons, and there was a threshold where individuals that gained an additional 4.8% of their body mass (26 kg, from 206 to 232 kg) increased lifetime reproductive success three-fold (from 1.8 to 4.9 pups). This was due to a two-fold increase in pupping probability (30% to 76%) and a 7% increase in reproductive lifespan (6.0 to 6.4 years). The sharp threshold between mass gain and reproduction may explain reproductive failure observed in many species and demonstrates how small, gradual reductions in prey from anthropogenic disturbance could have profound implications for animal populations.     

Do different rates of gene flow underlie variation in phenotypic and phenological clines in a montane grasshopper community?

Species responses to environmental change are likely to depend on existing genetic and phenotypic variation, as well as evolutionary potential. A key challenge is to determine whether gene flow might facilitate or impede genomic divergence among populations responding to environmental change, and if emergent phenotypic variation is dependent on gene flow rates. A general expectation is that patterns of genetic differentiation in a set of codistributed species reflect differences in dispersal ability. In less dispersive species, we predict greater genetic divergence and reduced gene flow. This could lead to covariation in life‐history traits due to local adaptation, although plasticity or drift could mirror these patterns. We compare genome‐wide patterns of genetic structure in four phenotypically variable grasshopper species along a steep elevation gradient near Boulder, Colorado, and test the hypothesis that genomic differentiation is greater in short‐winged grasshopper species, and statistically associated with variation in growth, reproductive, and physiological traits along this gradient. In addition, we estimate rates of gene flow under competing demographic models, as well as potential gene flow through surveys of phenological overlap among populations within a species. All species exhibit genetic structure along the elevation gradient and limited gene flow. The most pronounced genetic divergence appears in short‐winged (less dispersive) species, which also exhibit less phenological overlap among populations. A high‐elevation population of the most widespread species, Melanoplus sanguinipes, appears to be a sink population derived from low elevation populations. While dispersal ability has a clear connection to the genetic structure in different species, genetic distance does not predict growth, reproductive, or physiological trait variation in any species, requiring further investigation to clearly link phenotypic divergence to local adaptation.     

Population modelling and genetics of a critically endangered Madagascan palm Tahina spectabilis

Madagascar is home to 208 indigenous palm species, almost all of them endemic and >80% of which are endangered. We undertook complete population census and sampling for genetic analysis of a relatively recently discovered giant fan palm, the Critically Endangered Tahina spectablis in 2008 and 2016. Our 2016 study included newly discovered populations and added to our genetic study. We incorporated these new populations into species distribution niche model (SDM) and projected these onto maps of the region. We developed population matrix models based on observed demographic data to model population change and predict the species vulnerability to extinction by undertaking population viability analysis (PVA). We investigated the potential conservation value of reintroduced planted populations within the species potential suitable habitat. We found that the population studied in 2008 had grown in size due to seedling regeneration but had declined in the number of reproductively mature plants, and we were able to estimate that the species reproduces and dies after approximately 70 years. Our models suggest that if the habitat where it resides continues to be protected the species is unlikely to go extinct due to inherent population decline and that it will likely experience significant population growth after approximately 80 years due to the reproductive and life cycle attributes of the species. The newly discovered populations contain more genetic diversity than the first discovered southern population which is genetically depauperate. The species appears to demonstrate a pattern of dispersal leading to isolated founder plants which may eventually lead to population development depending on local establishment opportunities. The conservation efforts currently put in place including the reintroduction of plants within the species potential suitable habitat if maintained are thought likely to enable the species to sustain itself but it remains vulnerable to anthropogenic impacts.