Random temporal variation in selection intensities: One-locus two-allele model

Summary The paper formulates a one locus two allele diploid model influenced by temporal random selection intensities. The concept of stochastic local stability for equilibria states is formulated. Necessary and sufficient conditions are derived for the stochastic local stability of the fixation states for non-dominant and dominant traits. A general model, where a fixed polymorphic equilibrium is maintained is investigated. The complete local evolutionary picture is derived and some cases of global convergence are established.Supported in part by N. I. H. Grant GM 10452-09 and N. S. F. Grant 7507129.     

Sexual selection and temporal phenotypic variation in a damselfly population

Temporal variation in selection can be generated by temporal variation in either the fitness surface or phenotypic distributions around a static fitness surface, or both concurrently. Here, we use within- and between-generation sampling of fitness surfaces and phenotypic distributions over 2 years to investigate the causes of temporal variation in the form of sexual selection on body size in the damselfly Enallagma aspersum. Within a year, when the average female body size differed substantially from the average male body size, male body size experienced directional selection. In contrast, when male and female size distributions overlapped, male body size experienced stabilizing selection when variances in body size were large, but no appreciable selection when the variances in body size were small. The causes of temporal variation in the form of selection can only be inferred by accounting for changes in both the fitness surface and changes in the distribution of phenotypes.     

Genome size variation affects song attractiveness in grasshoppers: Evidence for sexual selection against large genomes

Genome size is largely uncorrelated to organismal complexity and adaptive scenarios. Genetic drift as well as intragenomic conflict have been put forward to explain this observation. We here study the impact of genome size on sexual attractiveness in the bow‐winged grasshopper Chorthippus biguttulus. Grasshoppers show particularly large variation in genome size due to the high prevalence of supernumerary chromosomes that are considered (mildly) selfish, as evidenced by non‐Mendelian inheritance and fitness costs if present in high numbers. We ranked male grasshoppers by song characteristics that are known to affect female preferences in this species and scored genome sizes of attractive and unattractive individuals from the extremes of this distribution. We find that attractive singers have significantly smaller genomes, demonstrating that genome size is reflected in male courtship songs and that females prefer songs of males with small genomes. Such a genome size dependent mate preference effectively selects against selfish genetic elements that tend to increase genome size. The data therefore provide a novel example of how sexual selection can reinforce natural selection and can act as an agent in an intragenomic arms race. Furthermore, our findings indicate an underappreciated route of how choosy females could gain indirect benefits.     

High genetic variation in leopards indicates large and long-term stable effective population size

In this paper we employ recently developed statistical and molecular tools to analyse the population history of the Tanzanian leopard (Panthera pardus), a large solitary felid. Because of their solitary lifestyle little is known of their past or present population dynamics. Eighty-one individuals were scored at 18 microsatellite loci. Overall, levels of heterozygosity were high (0.77 +/- 0.03), with a small heterozygote deficiency (0.06 +/- 0.03). Effective population size (Ne) was calculated to be 38 000-48 000. A Ne:N ratio of 0.42 (average from four cat studies) gives a present population size of about 100 000 leopards in Tanzania. Four different bottleneck tests indicated that this population has been large and stable for a minimum of several thousand years. FST values were low and no significant genetic structuring of the population could be detected. This concurs well with the large migration values (Nm) obtained (>3.3 individuals/generation). Our analysis reveals that ecological factors (e.g. disease), which are known to have had major impact on other carnivore populations, are unlikely to have impacted strongly on the population dynamics of Tanzanian leopards. The explanation may be found in their solitary life-style, their often nonconfrontational behaviour toward interspecific competitors, or that any bottlenecks have been of limited size, localized, or too short to have affected genetic variation to any measurable degree. Since the genetic structuring is weak, gene flow is not restricted to within protected areas. Local loss of genetic variation is therefore not of immediate concern.     

Reproductive fitness,population size and genetic variation in Muscari tenuiflorum (Hyacinthaceae): The role of temporal variation

In plant populations a positive correlation between population size, genetic variation and fitness components is often found, due to increased pollen limitation or reduced genetic variation and inbreeding depression in smaller populations. However, components of fitness also depend on environmental factors which can vary strongly between years. The dry grassland species Muscari tenuiflorum experiences long term habitat isolation and small population sizes. We analyzed seed production of M. tenuiflorum in four years and its dependence on population size and genetic variation. Genetic diversity within populations was high (AFLP: H_e = 0.245; allozymes: H_e = 0.348). An analysis of molecular variance revealed considerable population differentiation (AFLP: 26%; allozyme: 17%). An overall pattern of isolation by distance was found, which, however was not present at distances below 20 km, indicating stronger effects of genetic drift. Genetic diversity was positively correlated to population size. Self pollination reduced seed set by 24%, indicating inbreeding depression. Reproductive fitness was not correlated to genetic diversity and a positive correlation with population size was present in two of four study years. The absence of a general pattern stresses the importance for multi-year studies. Overall, the results show that despite long term habitat isolation M. tenuiflorum maintains seed production in many years independent of population size. The long term persistence of populations is thus expected to depend less on intrinsic genetic or demographic properties affecting seed production but on successful plant establishment and persistence, which latter are based on conservation and protection of suitable habitats.     

Adaptive site selection rules and variation in group size of barn swallows: individual decisions predict population patterns

Variation in group size is ubiquitous among socially breeding organisms. An alternative to the traditional examination of average reproductive success in groups of different sizes is to examine individual decision making by determining the cues used for site selection. Once factors used for decision making are known, one can determine whether group-level patterns, such as group size variation, are emergent properties of individual-level decision rules. The advantage of this alternative approach is that it can explain the distribution of group sizes rather than just the occurrence of optimal group sizes. Using barn swallows, I tested, but did not support, the hypothesis that individuals settle at sites based on the previous success of conspecifics (i.e., performance-based conspecific attraction). Instead, I demonstrate that an adaptive site selection decision rule--to breed where it is possible to reuse previously constructed nests--predicts 83% of the variation in the number of breeding pairs at a site. Furthermore, experimental nest removals demonstrated that settlement decisions are also strongly influenced by site familiarity. I discuss the interaction of the cue-based site selection rule with the occurrence of site fidelity and how, more generally, a consideration of individual-level decision rules can improve our understanding of variation in many social behaviors.     

Mutation and selection in a large population

In this paper we study a large, but finite population, in which mutation and selection occur at a single genetic locus in a diploid organism. We provide theoretical results for the equilibrium allele frequencies, their variances and covariances and their equilibrium distribution, when the population size is larger than the reciprocal of the mean allelic mutation rate. We are also able to infer that the equilibrium distribution of allele frequencies takes the form of a constrained multivariate Gaussian distribution. Our results provide a rapid way of obtaining useful information in the case of complex mutation and selection schemes when the population size is large. We present numerical simulations to test the applicability of our theoretical formulations. The results of these simulations are in very reasonable agreement with the theoretical predictions.     

Estimating effective population size using RADseq: Effects of SNP selection and sample size

Effective population size (N_e) is a key parameter of population genetics. However, N_e remains challenging to estimate for natural populations as several factors are likely to bias estimates. These factors include sampling design, sequencing method, and data filtering. One issue inherent to the restriction site‐associated DNA sequencing (RADseq) protocol is missing data and SNP selection criteria (e.g., minimum minor allele frequency, number of SNPs). To evaluate the potential impact of SNP selection criteria on N_e estimates (Linkage Disequilibrium method) we used RADseq data for a nonmodel species, the thornback ray. In this data set, the inbreeding coefficient F_IS was positively correlated with the amount of missing data, implying data were missing nonrandomly. The precision of N_eestimates decreased with the number of SNPs. Mean N_e estimates (averaged across 50 random data sets with2000 SNPs) ranged between 237 and 1784. Increasing the percentage of missing data from 25% to 50% increased N_e estimates between 82% and 120%, while increasing the minor allele frequency (MAF) threshold from 0.01 to 0.1 decreased estimates between 71% and 75%. Considering these effects is important when interpreting RADseq data‐derived estimates of effective population size in empirical studies.     

Monitoring temporal and spatial variation in rhizosphere bacterial population diversity: A community approach for the improved selection of rhizosphere competent bacteria

The potential for developing a reliable strategy for selecting rhizosphere competent bacteria, based on an improved understanding of the community diversity and population dynamics of fluorescent pseudomonads, was investigated. Isolates from a collection of over 690 fluorescent pseudomonads, obtained from sugar beet and wheat plants grown in field soils in laboratory microcosms, were genotypically and phenotypically characterised. RFLP rRNA analysis (ribotyping) revealed that the sampled population was composed of 385 related but distinct ribotypes. Most ribotypes were isolated only once and represented a transient colonising population. However, representatives of 26 ribotypes were detected more often, of which five were isolated from rhizosphere soils sampled 7 months after the first sampling. Comparative phenotypic analysis of isolates (motility, antibiotic resistance and production, adherence, fatty acid composition, substrate utilisation patterns) demonstrated that the ability to utilise organic acids as carbon sources correlated with rhizosphere competence. Single inoculum and competitive colonisation studies in planted microcosms confirmed rhizosphere competence, but also demonstrated synergistic interactions. The colonisation ability and population densities of transient strains were significantly increased when co-inoculated with rhizosphere competent isolates. These data demonstrate potential cross-feeding and combined niche exploitation, rather than direct competition, confirming the multi-factorial nature of rhizosphere competence in diverse fluorescent pseudomonad communities. They also highlight the need to consider the use of mixed inocula for plant growth promotion and the systematic selection of strains for effective biotechnological exploitation.     

Temperature-mediated changes in zooplankton body size: large scale temporal and spatial analysis

Climate warming has been linked with changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of species and the body size structure of ecological communities. Body size is a master trait underlying a host of physiological, ecological and evolutionary processes. However, the relative importance of environmental drivers and life history strategies on community body size structure across large spatial and temporal scales is poorly understood. We used detailed data of 83 copepod species, monitored over a 57-year period across the North Atlantic, to test how sea surface temperature, thermal and day length seasonality relate to observed latitudinal-size clines of the zooplankton community. The genus Calanus includes dominant taxa in the North Atlantic that overwinter at ocean depth. Thus we compared the copepod community size structure with and without Calanus species, to partition the influence of this life history strategy. The mean community body size of copepods was positively associated with latitude and negatively associated with temperature, suggesting that these communities follow Bergmann's rule. Including Calanus species strengthens these relationships due to their larger than average body sizes and high seasonal abundances, indicating that the latitudinal-size cline may be adaptive. We suggest that seasonal food availability prevents high abundance of smaller-sized copepods at higher latitudes, and that active vertical migration of dominant pelagic species can increase their survival rate over the resource-poor seasons. These findings improve our understanding of the impacts that climate warming has on ecological communities, with potential consequences for trophic interactions and biogeochemical processes that are well known to be size dependent.     

Spatial and temporal demographic variation drives within-season fluctuations in sexual selection

Our understanding of selection in nature stems mainly from whole-season and cross-sectional estimates of selection gradients. These estimates suggest that selection is relatively constant within, but fluctuates between seasons. However, the strength of selection depends on demographics, and because demographics can vary within seasons, there is a gap in our understanding regarding the extent to which seasonal fluctuations in demographics may cause variation in selection. Here we use two populations of the golden orb-web spider (Nephila plumipes) that differ in density to examine how demographics change within a season and whether there are correlated shifts in selection. We demonstrate that there is within-season variation in sex ratio and density at multiple spatial and temporal scales. This variation led to changes in the competitive challenges that males encountered at different times of the season and was correlated with significant variation in selection gradients on male size and weight between sampling periods. We highlight the importance of understanding the biology of the organism under study to correctly determine the relevant scale in which to examine selection. We also argue that studies may underestimate the true variation in selection by averaging values, leading to misinterpretation of the effect of selection on phenotypic evolution.     

Clutch size variation and morphology in a cyclomorphic Bosmina population

Clutch size, cyclomorphosis and allometric growth were analysedin a population of the humpbacked Bosmina (E.) coregoni gibbera.This species shows cyclomorphosis in antennule length and bodyheight, traits that may reduce predation risk from Leptodorakindtii. Individuals with long antennule and extreme body heightmay pay a cost in terms of decreased reproductive capacity.On the other hand, increasing the body height may be a way toincrease the brood chamber volume during periods of good foodconditions. We tested these hypotheses by comparing the seasonalvariation in clutch size with the seasonal variation in morphology.Antennule length and body height increased from mid-May to Augustand showed usually positive allometry at times with high populationdensities of the predatory cladoceran Leptodora kindtii. Clutchsize decreased from spring to late summer contrary to the hypothesisthat cyclomorphosis in height is caused by a seasonal variationin reproductive demand. However, within-dates antennule lengthwas negatively related and body height was positively relatedto clutch size. We conclude that the long antennule may imposea cost that reduces the reproductive capacity. The hypothesisthat carapace cyclomorphosis is driven by seasonally varyingclutch sizes was rejected.