Identifying priority areas for reducing species vulnerability to climate change

Aim The dimensions of species vulnerability to climate change are complex, and this impedes efforts to provide clear advice for conservation planning. In this study, we used a formal framework to assess species vulnerability to climate change quantifying exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity and then used this information to target areas for reducing vulnerability at a regional scale. Location The 6500‐km² Mount Lofty Ranges region in South Australia. Methods We quantified the vulnerability of 171 plant species in a fragmented yet biologically important agro‐ecological landscape, typical of many temperate zones globally. We specified exposure, using three climate change scenarios; sensitivity, as the adverse impact of climate change on species’ spatial distribution; and adaptive capacity, as the ability of species to migrate calculated using dispersal kernels. Priority areas for reducing vulnerability were then identified by incorporating these various components into a single priority index. Results Climate change had a variable impact on species distributions. Those species whose range decreased or shifted geographically were attributed higher sensitivity than those species that increased geographic range or remained unchanged. The ability to adapt to range changes in response to shifting climates varies both spatially and between species. Areas of highest priority for reducing vulnerability were found at higher altitudes and lower latitudes with increasing severity of climate change. Main conclusions Our study demonstrates the use of a single spatially explicit index that identifies areas in the landscape for targeting specific conservation and restoration actions to reduce species vulnerability to climate change. Our index can be transferred to other regions around the world in which climate change poses an increasing threat to native species.     

Beyond species distribution modeling: A landscape genetics approach to investigating range shifts under future climate change

Understanding how biodiversity will respond to future climate change is a major conservation and societal challenge. Climate change is predicted to force many species to shift their ranges in pursuit of suitable conditions. This study aims to use landscape genetics, the study of the effects of environmental heterogeneity on the spatial distribution of genetic variation, as a predictive tool to assess how species will shift their ranges to track climatic changes and inform conservation measures that will facilitate movement. The approach is based on three steps: 1) using species distribution models (SDMs) to predict suitable ranges under future climate change, 2) using the landscape genetics framework to identify landscape variables that impede or facilitate movement, and 3) extrapolating the effect of landscape connectivity on range shifts in response to future climate change. I show how this approach can be implemented using the publicly available genetic dataset of the grey long-eared bat, Plecotus austriacus, in the Iberian Peninsula. Forest cover gradient was the main landscape variable affecting genetic connectivity between colonies. Forest availability is likely to limit future range shifts in response to climate change, primarily over the central plateau, but important range shift pathways have been identified along the eastern and western coasts. I provide outputs that can be directly used by conservation managers and review the viability of the approach. Using landscape genetics as a predictive tool in combination with SDMs enables the identification of potential pathways, whose loss can affect the ability of species to shift their range into future climatically suitable areas, and the appropriate conservation management measures to increase landscape connectivity and facilitate movement.     

Landscape genomics and a common garden trial reveal adaptive differentiation to temperature across Europe in the tree species Alnus glutinosa

The adaptive potential of tree species to cope with climate change has important ecological and economic implications. Many temperate tree species experience a wide range of environmental conditions, suggesting high adaptability to new environmental conditions. We investigated adaptation to regional climate in the drought‐sensitive tree species Alnus glutinosa (Black alder), using a complementary approach that integrates genomic, phenotypic and landscape data. A total of 24 European populations were studied in a common garden and through landscape genomic approaches. Genotyping‐by‐sequencing was used to identify SNPs across the genome, resulting in 1990 SNPs. Although a relatively low percentage of putative adaptive SNPs was detected (2.86% outlier SNPs), we observed clear associations among outlier allele frequencies, temperature and plant traits. In line with the typical drought avoiding nature of A. glutinosa, leaf size varied according to a temperature gradient and significant associations with multiple outlier loci were observed, corroborating the ecological relevance of the observed outlier SNPs. Moreover, the lack of isolation by distance, the very low genetic differentiation among populations and the high intrapopulation genetic variation all support the notion that high gene exchange combined with strong environmental selection promotes adaptation to environmental cues.     

Species vulnerability to climate change: impacts on spatial conservation priorities and species representation

Climate change may shrink and/or shift plant species ranges thereby increasing their vulnerability and requiring targeted conservation to facilitate adaptation. We quantified the vulnerability to climate change of plant species based on exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity and assessed the effects of including these components in complementarity‐based spatial conservation prioritisation. We modelled the vulnerability of 584 native plant species under three climate change scenarios in an 11.9 million hectare fragmented agricultural region in southern Australia. We represented exposure as species' geographical range under each climate change scenario as quantified using species distribution models. We calculated sensitivity as a function of the impact of climate change on species' geographical ranges. Using a dispersal kernel, we quantified adaptive capacity as species' ability to migrate to new geographical ranges under each climate change scenario. Using Zonation, we assessed the impact of individual components of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) on spatial conservation priorities and levels of species representation in priority areas under each climate change scenario. The full vulnerability framework proved an effective basis for identifying spatial conservation priorities under climate change. Including different dimensions of vulnerability had significant implications for spatial conservation priorities. Incorporating adaptive capacity increased the level of representation of most species. However, prioritising sensitive species reduced the representation of other species. We conclude that whilst taking an integrated approach to mitigating species vulnerability to climate change can ensure sensitive species are well‐represented in a conservation network, this can come at the cost of reduced representation of other species. Conservation planning decisions aimed at reducing species vulnerability to climate change need to be made in full cognisance of the sensitivity of spatial conservation priorities to individual components of vulnerability, and the trade‐offs associated with focussing on sensitive species.     

Demographic consequences of climate change and land cover help explain a history of extirpations and range contraction in a declining snake species

Developing conservation strategies for threatened species increasingly requires understanding vulnerabilities to climate change, in terms of both demographic sensitivities to climatic and other environmental factors, and exposure to variability in those factors over time and space. We conducted a range‐wide, spatially explicit climate change vulnerability assessment for Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus), a declining endemic species in a region showing strong environmental change. Using active season and winter adult survival estimates derived from 17 data sets throughout the species' range, we identified demographic sensitivities to winter drought, maximum precipitation during the summer, and the proportion of the surrounding landscape dominated by agricultural and urban land cover. Each of these factors was negatively associated with active season adult survival rates in binomial generalized linear models. We then used these relationships to back‐cast adult survival with dynamic climate variables from 1950 to 2008 using spatially explicit demographic models. Demographic models for 189 population locations predicted known extant and extirpated populations well (AUC = 0.75), and models based on climate and land cover variables were superior to models incorporating either of those effects independently. These results suggest that increasing frequencies and severities of extreme events, including drought and flooding, have been important drivers of the long‐term spatiotemporal variation in a demographic rate. We provide evidence that this variation reflects nonadaptive sensitivity to climatic stressors, which are contributing to long‐term demographic decline and range contraction for a species of high‐conservation concern. Range‐wide demographic modeling facilitated an understanding of spatial shifts in climatic suitability and exposure, allowing the identification of important climate refugia for a dispersal‐limited species. Climate change vulnerability assessment provides a framework for linking demographic and distributional dynamics to environmental change, and can thereby provide unique information for conservation planning and management.     

LANDSCAPE GENOMICS IN ATLANTIC SALMON (SALMO SALAR): SEARCHING FOR GENE–ENVIRONMENT INTERACTIONS DRIVING LOCAL ADAPTATION

A growing number of studies are examining the factors driving historical and contemporary evolution in wild populations. By combining surveys of genomic variation with a comprehensive assessment of environmental parameters, such studies can increase our understanding of the genomic and geographical extent of local adaptation in wild populations. We used a large‐scale landscape genomics approach to examine adaptive and neutral differentiation across 54 North American populations of Atlantic salmon representing seven previously defined genetically distinct regional groups. Over 5500 genome‐wide single nucleotide polymorphisms were genotyped in 641 individuals and 28 bulk assays of 25 pooled individuals each. Genome scans, linkage map, and 49 environmental variables were combined to conduct an innovative landscape genomic analysis. Our results provide valuable insight into the links between environmental variation and both neutral and potentially adaptive genetic divergence. In particular, we identified markers potentially under divergent selection, as well as associated selective environmental factors and biological functions with the observed adaptive divergence. Multivariate landscape genetic analysis revealed strong associations of both genetic and environmental structures. We found an enrichment of growth‐related functions among outlier markers. Climate (temperature–precipitation) and geological characteristics were significantly associated with both potentially adaptive and neutral genetic divergence and should be considered as candidate loci involved in adaptation at the regional scale in Atlantic salmon. Hence, this study significantly contributes to the improvement of tools used in modern conservation and management schemes of Atlantic salmon wild populations.     

Genetic analysis of differentiation among breeding ponds reveals a candidate gene for local adaptation in Rana arvalis

One of the main questions in evolutionary and conservation biology is how geographical and environmental features of the landscape shape neutral and adaptive genetic variation in natural populations. The identification of genomic polymorphisms that account for adaptive variation can aid in finding candidate loci for local adaptation. Consequently, a comparison of spatial patterns in neutral markers and loci under selection may help disentangle the effects of gene flow, genetic drift and selection at the landscape scale. Many amphibians breed in wetlands, which differ in environmental conditions and in the degree of isolation, enhancing the potential for local adaptation. We used microsatellite markers to measure genetic differentiation among 17 local populations of Rana arvalis breeding in a network of wetlands. We found that locus RC08604 deviated from neutral expectations, suggesting that it is a good candidate for directional selection. We used a genetic network analysis to show that the allele distribution in this locus is correlated with habitat characteristics, whereas this was not the case at neutral markers that displayed a different allele distribution and population network in the study area. The graph approach illustrated the genomic heterogeneity (neutral loci vs. the candidate locus for directional selection) of gene exchange and genetic divergence among populations under directional selection. Limited gene flow between wetlands was only observed at the candidate genomic region under directional selection. RC08604 is partially located inside an up‐regulated thyroid‐hormone receptor (TRβ) gene coordinating the expression of other genes during metamorphosis and appears to be linked with variation in larval life‐history traits found among R. arvalis populations. We suggest that directional selection on genes coding larval life‐history traits is strong enough to maintain the divergence in these genomic regions, reducing the effective recombination of locally adapted alleles but not in other regions of the genome. Integrating this knowledge into conservation plans at the landscape scale will improve the design of management strategies to preserve adaptive genetic diversity in wetland networks.     

Climate‐niche factor analysis: a spatial approach to quantifying species vulnerability to climate change

Climate change vulnerability assessments are an important tool for understanding the threat that climate change poses to species and populations, but do not generally yield insight into the spatial variation in vulnerability throughout a species’ habitat. We demonstrate how to adapt the method of ecological‐niche factor analysis (ENFA) to objectively quantify aspects of species sensitivity to climate change. We then expand ENFA to quantify aspects of exposure and vulnerability to climate change as well, using future projections of global climate models. This approach provides spatially‐explicit insight into geographic patterns of vulnerability, relies only on readily‐available spatial data, is suitable for a wide range of species and habitats, and invites comparison between different species. We apply our methods to a case study of two species of montane mammals, the American pika Ochotona princeps and the yellow‐bellied marmot Marmota flaviventris.     

Riverscape genomics of a threatened fish across a hydroclimatically heterogeneous river basin

Understanding how natural selection generates and maintains adaptive genetic diversity in heterogeneous environments is key to predicting the evolutionary response of populations to rapid environmental change. Detecting selection in complex spatial environments remains challenging, especially for threatened species where the effects of strong genetic drift may overwhelm signatures of selection. We carried out a basinwide riverscape genomic analysis in the threatened southern pygmy perch (Nannoperca australis), an ecological specialist with low dispersal potential. High‐resolution environmental data and 5162 high‐quality filtered SNPs were used to clarify spatial population structure and to assess footprints of selection associated with a steep hydroclimatic gradient and with human disturbance across the naturally and anthropogenically fragmented Murray–Darling Basin (Australia). Our approach included F_ST outlier tests to define neutral loci, and a combination of spatially explicit genotype–environment association analyses to identify candidate adaptive loci while controlling for the effects of landscape structure and shared population history. We found low levels of genetic diversity and strong neutral population structure consistent with expectations based on spatial stream hierarchy and life history. In contrast, variables related to precipitation and temperature appeared as the most important environmental surrogates for putatively adaptive genetic variation at both regional and local scales. Human disturbance also influenced the variation in candidate loci for adaptation, but only at a local scale. Our study contributes to understanding of adaptive evolution along naturally and anthropogenically fragmented ecosystems. It also offers a tangible example of the potential contributions of landscape genomics for informing in situ and ex situ conservation management of biodiversity.     

Environmental gradients of selection for an alpine-obligate bird,the white-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura)

The warming climate will expose alpine species adapted to a highly seasonal, harsh environment to novel environmental conditions. A species can shift their distribution, acclimate, or adapt in response to a new climate. Alpine species have little suitable habitat to shift their distribution, and the limits of acclimation will likely be tested by climate change in the long-term. Adaptive genetic variation may provide the raw material for species to adapt to this changing environment. Here, we use a genomic approach to describe adaptive divergence in an alpine-obligate species, the white-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura), a species distributed from Alaska to New Mexico, across an environmentally variable geographic range. Previous work has identified genetic structure and morphological, behavioral, and physiological differences across the species’ range; however, those studies were unable to determine the degree to which adaptive divergence is correlated with local variation in environmental conditions. We used a genome-wide dataset generated from 95 white-tailed ptarmigan distributed throughout the species’ range and genotype–environment association analyses to identify the genetic signature and environmental drivers of local adaptation. We detected associations between multiple environmental gradients and candidate adaptive loci, suggesting ptarmigan populations may be locally adapted to the plant community composition, elevation, local climate, and to the seasonality of the environment. Overall, our results suggest there may be groups within the species’ range with genetic variation that could be essential for adapting to a changing climate and helpful in guiding conservation action.Subject terms: Ecological genetics, Evolutionary ecology     

On the roles of landscape heterogeneity and environmental variation in determining population genomic structure in a dendritic system

Dispersal and natural selection are key evolutionary processes shaping the distribution of phenotypic and genetic diversity. For species inhabiting complex spatial environments however, it is unclear how the balance between gene flow and selection may be influenced by landscape heterogeneity and environmental variation. Here, we evaluated the effects of dendritic landscape structure and the selective forces of hydroclimatic variation on population genomic parameters for the Murray River rainbowfish, Melanotaenia fluviatilis across the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia. We genotyped 249 rainbowfish at 17,503 high‐quality SNP loci and integrated these with models of network connectivity and high‐resolution environmental data within a riverscape genomics framework. We tested competing models of gene flow before using multivariate genotype–environment association (GEA) analysis to test for signals of adaptive divergence associated with hydroclimatic variation. Patterns of neutral genetic variation were consistent with expectations based on the stream hierarchy model and M. fluviatilis’ moderate dispersal ability. Models incorporating dendritic network structure suggested that landscape heterogeneity is a more important factor determining connectivity and gene flow than waterway distance. Extending these results, we also introduce a novel approach to controlling for the unique effects of dendritic network structure in GEA analyses of populations of aquatic species. We identified 146 candidate loci potentially underlying a polygenic adaptive response to seasonal fluctuations in stream flow and variation in the relative timing of temperature and precipitation extremes. Our findings underscore an emerging predominant role for seasonal variation in hydroclimatic conditions driving local adaptation and are relevant for informing proactive conservation management.     

Mapping tree species vulnerability to multiple threats as a guide to restoration and conservation of tropical dry forests

Understanding the vulnerability of tree species to anthropogenic threats is important for the efficient planning of restoration and conservation efforts. We quantified and compared the effects of future climate change and four current threats (fire, habitat conversion, overgrazing and overexploitation) on the 50 most common tree species of the tropical dry forests of northwestern Peru and southern Ecuador. We used an ensemble modelling approach to predict species distribution ranges, employed freely accessible spatial datasets to map threat exposures, and developed a trait‐based scoring approach to estimate species‐specific sensitivities, using differentiated trait weights in accordance with their expected importance in determining species sensitivities to specific threats. Species‐specific vulnerability maps were constructed from the product of the exposure maps and the sensitivity estimates. We found that all 50 species face considerable threats, with an average of 46% of species’ distribution ranges displaying high or very high vulnerability to at least one of the five threats. Our results suggest that current levels of habitat conversion, overexploitation and overgrazing pose larger threats to most of the studied species than climate change. We present a spatially explicit planning strategy for species‐specific restoration and conservation actions, proposing management interventions to focus on (a) in situ conservation of tree populations and seed collection for tree planting activities in areas with low vulnerability to climate change and current threats; (b) ex situ conservation or translocation of populations in areas with high climate change vulnerability; and (c) active planting or assisted regeneration in areas under high current threat vulnerability but low climate change vulnerability, provided that interventions are in place to lower threat pressure. We provide an online, user‐friendly tool to visualize both the vulnerability maps and the maps indicating priority restoration and conservation actions.     

Ecological genomics predicts climate vulnerability in an endangered southwestern songbird

Few regions have been more severely impacted by climate change in the USA than the Desert Southwest. Here, we use ecological genomics to assess the potential for adaptation to rising global temperatures in a widespread songbird, the willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii), and find the endangered desert southwestern subspecies (E. t. extimus) most vulnerable to future climate change. Highly significant correlations between present abundance and estimates of genomic vulnerability – the mismatch between current and predicted future genotype–environment relationships – indicate small, fragmented populations of the southwestern willow flycatcher will have to adapt most to keep pace with climate change. Links between climate‐associated genotypes and genes important to thermal tolerance in birds provide a potential mechanism for adaptation to temperature extremes. Our results demonstrate that the incorporation of genotype–environment relationships into landscape‐scale models of climate vulnerability can facilitate more precise predictions of climate impacts and help guide conservation in threatened and endangered groups.     

Advances in ecological genomics in forest trees and applications to genetic resources conservation and breeding

Forest trees are an unparalleled group of organisms in their combined ecological, economic and societal importance. With widespread distributions, predominantly random mating systems and large population sizes, most tree species harbour extensive genetic variation both within and among populations. At the same time, demographic processes associated with Pleistocene climate oscillations and land‐use change have affected contemporary range‐wide diversity and may impinge on the potential for future adaptation. Understanding how these adaptive and neutral processes have shaped the genomes of trees species is therefore central to their management and conservation. As for many other taxa, the advent of high‐throughput sequencing methods is expected to yield an understanding of the interplay between the genome and environment at a level of detail and depth not possible only a few years ago. An international conference entitled ‘Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics’ was held in May 2016, in Arcachon (France), and brought together forest geneticists with a wide range of research interests to disseminate recent efforts that leverage contemporary genomic tools to probe the population, quantitative and evolutionary genomics of trees. An important goal of the conference was to discuss how such data can be applied to both genome‐enabled breeding and the conservation of forest genetic resources under land use and climate change. Here, we report discoveries presented at the meeting and discuss how the ecological genomic toolkit can be used to address both basic and applied questions in tree biology.     

Conservation strategies to mitigate impacts from climate change in Amazonia

Protected area systems and conservation corridors can help mitigate the impacts of climate change on Amazonian biodiversity. We propose conservation design criteria that will help species survive in situ or adjust range distributions in response to increased drought. The first priority is to protect the western Amazon, identified as the 'Core Amazon', due to stable rainfall regimes and macro-ecological phenomena that have led to the evolution of high levels of biodiversity. Ecotones can buffer the impact from climate change because populations are genetically adapted to climate extremes, particularly seasonality, because high levels of habitat diversity are associated with edaphic variability. Future climatic tension zones should be surveyed for geomorphological features that capture rain or conserve soil moisture to identify potential refugia for humid forest species. Conservation corridors should span environmental gradients to ensure that species can shift range distributions. Riparian corridors provide protection to both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Multiple potential altitudinal corridors exist in the Andes, but natural and anthropogenic bottlenecks will constrain the ability of species to shift their ranges and adapt to climate change. Planned infrastructure investments are a serious threat to the potential to consolidate corridors over the short and medium term.     

Signatures of diversifying selection at EST‐SSR loci and association with climate in natural Eucalyptus populations

Understanding the environmental parameters that drive adaptation among populations is important in predicting how species may respond to global climatic changes and how gene pools might be managed to conserve adaptive genetic diversity. Here, we used Bayesian F_ST outlier tests and allele–climate association analyses to reveal two Eucalyptus EST‐SSR loci as strong candidates for diversifying selection in natural populations of a southwestern Australian forest tree, Eucalyptus gomphocephala (Myrtaceae). The Eucalyptus homolog of a CONSTANS‐like gene was an F_ST outlier, and allelic variation showed significant latitudinal clinal associations with annual and winter solar radiation, potential evaporation, summer precipitation and aridity. A second F_ST outlier locus, homologous to quinone oxidoreductase, was significantly associated with measures of temperature range, high summer temperature and summer solar radiation, with important implications for predicting the effect of temperature on natural populations in the context of climate change. We complemented these data with investigations into neutral population genetic structure and diversity throughout the species range. This study provides an investigation into selection signatures at gene‐homologous EST‐SSRs in natural Eucalyptus populations, and contributes to our understanding of the relationship between climate and adaptive genetic variation, informing the conservation of both putatively neutral and adaptive components of genetic diversity.     

Integrative conservation genetics: Prioritizing populations using climate predictions,adaptive potential and habitat connectivity

Conservation decisions often involve allocation of scarce resources among many areas of need. Various approaches exist to help prioritize species and populations for conservation. Past efforts have often used relatively narrow, one‐dimensional criteria, such as genetic resource value or exposure to threats. What is lacking is a refined, comprehensive prioritization approach including ecological and evolutionary aspects, informed by rich and reliable data. In this issue of Molecular Ecology Resources, Razgour et al. ( 2017 ) present a new prioritization framework that coherently integrates three dimensions of population vulnerability: exposure to change, sensitivity to change and range shift potential. They measure these dimensions for 10 populations of a European bat using a suite of advanced analysis methods that leverage genomic, environmental and occurrence data. Explicitly recognizing and quantifying the multidimensional nature of conservation priorities is a key advance because it enables a nuanced assessment of each population and identification of populations of high concern along all three dimensions. With some caveats and modifications, this framework could be a major step for conservation prioritization and intervention that is proactive and informed by evolutionary principles.     

Linking phenotype,genotype and environment to unravel genetic components underlying cold hardiness in coastal Douglas-fir (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pseudotsuga menziesii</Emphasis> var. <Emphasis Type="Italic">menziesii</Emphasis>)

Global climate change may detrimentally affect future generations of numerous forest tree species, hampering their long-term sustainability if appropriate evolutionary responses remain lacking. To face these novel threats, conservation biologists are in need of a thorough understanding and identification of adaptive variation in key fitness traits. We here provide an elaborate synthesis of pre-existing and novel analyses of an association mapping, genecological and landscape genomic study integrating genotypic, environmental and phenotypic data to gain insights into the genetic basis of cold-hardiness adaptation in coastal Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii). Data were collected across part of the natural range for a total of 643 individuals. A landscape genomic approach revealed 28 putative non-neutral genes, although a variance partitioning analysis indicated only moderate power of this gene set in explaining cold-hardiness-related phenotypic variation, and suggests many important genes await discovery. Integrating these results within the entire phenotype-genotype-environment spectrum allowed us to delineate the six most promising candidate genes under selection. By combining genomic, phenotypic and environmental data, this study attempts to gain insights in the genetic basis of key adaptations, which may ultimately aid forestry managers to establish resilient ecosystems in face of future climate change.     

The population genomic signature of environmental selection in the widespread insect-pollinated tree species Frangula alnus at different geographical scales

The evaluation of the molecular signatures of selection in species lacking an available closely related reference genome remains challenging, yet it may provide valuable fundamental insights into the capacity of populations to respond to environmental cues. We screened 25 native populations of the tree species Frangula alnus subsp. alnus (Rhamnaceae), covering three different geographical scales, for 183 annotated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Standard population genomic outlier screens were combined with individual-based and multivariate landscape genomic approaches to examine the strength of selection relative to neutral processes in shaping genomic variation, and to identify the main environmental agents driving selection. Our results demonstrate a more distinct signature of selection with increasing geographical distance, as indicated by the proportion of SNPs (i) showing exceptional patterns of genetic diversity and differentiation (outliers) and (ii) associated with climate. Both temperature and precipitation have an important role as selective agents in shaping adaptive genomic differentiation in F. alnus subsp. alnus, although their relative importance differed among spatial scales. At the ‘intermediate'' and ‘regional'' scales, where limited genetic clustering and high population diversity were observed, some indications of natural selection may suggest a major role for gene flow in safeguarding adaptability. High genetic diversity at loci under selection in particular, indicated considerable adaptive potential, which may nevertheless be compromised by the combined effects of climate change and habitat fragmentation.     

Multiple axes of ecological vulnerability to climate change

Observed ecological responses to climate change are highly individualistic across species and locations, and understanding the drivers of this variability is essential for management and conservation efforts. While it is clear that differences in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity all contribute to heterogeneity in climate change vulnerability, predicting these features at macroecological scales remains a critical challenge. We explore multiple drivers of heterogeneous vulnerability across the distributions of 96 vegetation types of the ecologically diverse western US, using data on observed climate trends from 1948 to 2014 to highlight emerging patterns of change. We ask three novel questions about factors potentially shaping vulnerability across the region: (a) How does sensitivity to different climate variables vary geographically and across vegetation classes? (b) How do multivariate climate exposure patterns interact with these sensitivities to shape vulnerability patterns? (c) How different are these vulnerability patterns according to three widely implemented vulnerability paradigms—niche novelty (decline in modeled suitability), temporal novelty (standardized anomaly), and spatial novelty (inbound climate velocity)—each of which uses a distinct frame of reference to quantify climate departure? We propose that considering these three novelty paradigms in combination could help improve our understanding and prediction of heterogeneous climate change responses, and we discuss the distinct climate adaptation strategies connected with different combinations of high and low novelty across the three metrics. Our results reveal a diverse mosaic of climate change vulnerability signatures across the region's plant communities. Each of the above factors contributes strongly to this heterogeneity: climate variable sensitivity exhibits clear patterns across vegetation types, multivariate climate change data reveal highly diverse exposure signatures across locations, and the three novelty paradigms diverge widely in their climate change vulnerability predictions. Together, these results shed light on potential drivers of individualistic climate change responses and may help to inform effective management strategies.