Dynamics of China's regional carbon emissions under gradient economic development mode

Regional economic development in China is extremely uneven, which leads to the variation of the status quo and development trend of carbon emissions in different regions, and thus has a huge impact on the construction of the future carbon trading market, in particular the allocation of emission reduction targets. In this article, we adopt a spatial econometric approach to analyze the spatial characteristics of China's regional carbon emissions under its gradient economic development mode. Results indicate that carbon emissions show strong spatial dependence and convergence across regions. Specifically, carbon emissions of different regions in China are characterized by club convergence, as the country's gradient developing mode has enhanced the spatial agglomeration effects. Furthermore, we analyze the evolving trends of regional emission shares, and build a basic framework for the allocation of regional emission reduction targets in China's future carbon emissions trading market.     

Effect of carbon emission regulations on transport mode selection under stochastic demand

More and more companies are paying attention to their carbon footprint beyond production emissions. In this work we consider a ‘carbon-aware’ company (either by choice or enforced by regulation) that is reconsidering the transport mode selection decision. Traditionally the trade-off has been between lead time (and corresponding inventory costs) and transportation costs but now emission costs come into the equation. We use a carbon emission measurement methodology based on real-life data and incorporate it into an inventory model. We consider the results for different types of emission regulation (including voluntary targets). We find that even though large emission reductions can be obtained by switching to a different mode, the actual decision depends on the regulation and non-monetary considerations, such as lead time variability.     

The impact of carbon footprinting aggregation on realizing emission reduction targets

A variety of activity-based methods exist for estimating the carbon footprint in transportation. For instance, the greenhouse gas protocol suggests a more aggregate estimation method than the Network for Transport and Environment (NTM) method. In this study, we implement a detailed estimation method based on NTM and different aggregate approaches for transportation carbon emissions in the dynamic lot sizing model. Analytical results show the limitations of aggregate models for both accurate estimation of real emissions and risks of compliance with carbon constraints (e.g., carbon caps). Extensive numerical experimentation shows that the magnitude of errors can be substantial. We provide insights under which limited conditions aggregate estimations can be used safely and when more detailed estimates are appropriate.     

旅游交通碳排放的空间结构与情景分析

旅游业作为全球第一大产业,是影响气候变化的重要因素之一,旅游碳排放的相关研究近年来已经引起学者们的关注.选择了九寨沟风景区、西安碑林博物馆、南京珍珠泉风景区3个旅游交通模式差异明显的案例地为例,根据实地问卷调查数据估算了九寨沟风景区、西安碑林博物馆、珍珠泉旅游风景区2010年的旅游交通碳排放总量分别为654.18,108.44和15.92 Gg.通过比较九寨沟、西安碑林和珍珠泉的碳排放累积曲线,得出不同旅游平均距离的景区的碳排放结构均衡度有所不同,旅游平均距离偏低景区的碳排放结构最不均衡.同时,旅游景区的交通碳排放在距离上具有分段性,不同旅游平均距离的景区交通碳排放的空间结构具有明显的差异性.通过4种不同的交通情景分析发现,旅游平均距离高和距离中等的景区对飞机的碳减排敏感度较高,旅游平均距离偏低的景区自驾车的碳减排效果最为明显.研究结果为旅游管理部门根据碳排放结构有针对性的制定差异化的旅游交通碳减排政策提供了参考和借鉴.     

Hybrid simulation and optimization approach for green intermodal transportation problem with travel time uncertainty

The increasing volumes of road transportation contribute to congestion on road, which leads to delays and other negative impacts on the reliability of transportation. Moreover, transportation is one of the main contributors to the growth of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions, where the impact of road transportation is significant. Therefore, governmental organizations and private commercial companies are looking for greener transportation solutions to eliminate the negative externalities of road transportation. In this paper, we present a novel solution framework to support the operational-level decisions for intermodal transportation networks using a combination of an optimization model and simulation. The simulation model includes stochastic elements in form of uncertain travel times, whereas the optimization model represents a deterministic and linear multi-commodity service network design formulation. The intermodal transportation plan can be optimized according to different objectives, including costs, time and \(CO_2e\) emissions. The proposed approach is successfully implemented to real-life scenarios where differences in transportation plans for alternative objectives are presented. The solutions for transportation networks with up to 250 services and 20 orders show that the approach is capable of delivering reliable solutions and identifying possible disruptions and alternatives for adapting the unreliable transportation plans.     

区域旅游交通碳排放测度模型及实证分析

交通是旅游业发展的基础,旅游交通的碳排放是旅游业碳排放的主体部分。合理配置区域旅游交通是旅游业可持续发展的重要保障。从区域的角度出发,构建区域旅游交通碳排放测算模型,并以南京市和黄山市为例进行分析。研究发现:(1)区域经济和旅游发展水平是影响旅游交通碳排放的重要因素,且经济发展水平和旅游发展水平对旅游交通碳排放"贡献"的大小和方向不同;(2)区域旅游交通碳排放主要在区外,区内比例较小。2008至2012年,南京市旅游交通碳排放中区外部分所占比例平均达到89.13%,黄山市平均达到90.21%,两城市区外与区内部分之比均约为9∶1;(3)区域旅游交通碳排放结构中,民航所占比重最大,其次是公路和铁路,区域交通结构的优化有利于旅游交通碳排放的减少;(4)区域各类交通方式中,外部交通的碳排放中旅游业的贡献较大,而城市内部交通的碳排放中旅游业的贡献较小。     

An Analysis of Sustainable Consumption by the Waste Input-Output Model

The extension of the waste input-output (WIO) model to analyze households' sustainable consumption patterns is presented in this article. We estimate direct and indirect emission loads induced by household consumption by the WIO model. The WIO model is much more suitable for the analysis of sustainable consumption than the conventional input-output model because it can deal with the disposal stage of consumed goods as well as the purchase and use stages. A simple method for evaluating income rebound effects is also introduced. As indicators of environmental loads, we estimate carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and landfill consumption induced by household consumption. The model is applied to some typical sustainable consumption scenarios: shifting transportation modes from a private car to public transportation, the longer use of household electric appliances, and eating at restaurants instead of cooking at home. We found that the income rebound effects should be considered to evaluate environmental loads induced by different consumption patterns.     

An integrated approach to improving fossil fuel emissions scenarios with urban ecosystem studies

The future trajectory of fossil fuel emissions is one of the largest uncertainties in predicting climate change. While global emissions scenarios are ultimately of interest for climate modeling, many of the factors that influence energy and fuel consumption operate on a local rather than global level. However, there have been relatively few comprehensive studies of the ecological and socioeconomic processes that will determine the future trajectory of net carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions at local and regional scales. We conducted an interdisciplinary, whole ecosystem study of the role of climate, urban expansion, urban form, transportation, and the urban forest in influencing net CO₂ emissions in the Salt Lake Valley, Utah, a rapidly urbanizing region in the western U.S. Our approach involved a detailed emissions inventory validated with atmospheric measurements, as well as a system dynamics model of future CO₂ emissions developed in collaboration with local stakeholders. The model highlighted the importance of a positive feedback between urban land development and transportation investments that may strongly affect emissions by amplifying declines in developmental densities and increases in vehicular traffic. Simulations suggested that while doubling the density of tree planting would have a negligible effect on total urban CO₂ emissions, land use and transportation policies that dampen the intensity of the urban sprawl feedback could result in a 22% reduction in CO₂ emissions by 2030 relative to a business as usual scenario. We suggest that by advancing our mechanistic understanding of energy and fuel consumption regionally, this urban ecosystem approach has great potential for improving emissions scenario studies if replicated in other cities and urbanizing regions.     

Corporate Carbon and Financial Performance: A Meta‐analysis

We use meta‐analytical techniques to address the question“When does it pay to be green?” Existing meta‐studies in this research field cover a range of ecological issues and synthesize a variety of environmental performance measurements. This precludes a detailed examination of how differences in measurement approaches account for variations in empirical results. In order to conduct such an examination, we focus on only one ecological issue, climate change, and one particular operational performance dimension: corporate carbon performance as expressed by a firm's level of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission equivalents. Our sample comprises 68 estimations from 32 empirical studies, covering a total of 101,775 observations. In addition to our examination of the causal relationship, we analyze whether differences in operationalizations of carbon performance and financial performance predetermine empirical outcomes. The meta‐analytic findings indicate that carbon emissions vary inversely with financial performance, indicating that good carbon performance is generally positively related to superior financial performance. The results show that relative emissions are more likely to produce statistically significant results than absolute emissions. Furthermore, market‐based measures of financial performance are more positively related to carbon performance than accounting‐based measures. We conclude that measurement characteristics, which were not analyzed in detail by previous meta‐studies, may present a great source of cross‐study variability.     

江西县域土地利用变化碳排放时空演变及其影响因素

查明县域尺度下土地利用变化碳排放,对于推进县域低碳发展和土地资源的可持续利用与管理具有重要意义。以江西省为例,基于2000-2020年江西省土地利用数据、社会经济数据等,利用空间自相关模型和对数平均迪氏指数分解法(LMDI) 法,对其县域土地利用碳排放时空演变及影响因素进行分析。结果表明:①2000-2020年间,区县土地利用碳排放均呈上升趋势,碳排放量增速和平均碳排放强度均有下降,但部分区县碳排放增速在2015年后出现提高的变化特征。建设用地是碳排放量增长的首要碳源,林地则具有重要的碳汇作用。②空间上,土地利用变化碳排放呈现出明显的空间差异,表现为北高南低的分布特征和较为稳定的聚类模式,即轻度和重度及以上排放区空间分布上较为集中。经济发达区县成为碳排放量增长"核心",欠发达区县则是碳排放量增长"外围",且这种"核心-外围"格局在不断强化。③总体上,抑制碳排放量增长的主要因素为碳排放强度及土地利用效率;驱动因素则有经济发展水平和建设用地规模。但部分区县碳排放强度可能表现为"前期驱动后期抑制"作用,且抑制作用小于驱动作用,故这类区县土地利用碳排放量仍显著增长。因此,江西省各区县应积极调整产业结构和继续降低碳排放强度及通过优化土地资源配置,提高土地利用效率,如用适度集约模式提高建设用地利用效率以免盲目性扩张浪费。另外,欠发达地区和发达地区需加强在资金、技术等领域的交流与合作,不同区县还应因地制宜,各自明确发展目标,走具有各自县域特色的低碳高质量发展道路。     

Contribution of N2O to the greenhouse gas balance of first-generation biofuels

In this study, we analyze the impact of fertilizer‐ and manure‐induced N₂O emissions due to energy crop production on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions when conventional transportation fuels are replaced by first‐generation biofuels (also taking account of other GHG emissions during the entire life cycle). We calculate the nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions by applying a statistical model that uses spatial data on climate and soil. For the land use that is assumed to be replaced by energy crop production (the ‘reference land‐use system’), we explore a variety of options, the most important of which are cropland for food production, grassland, and natural vegetation. Calculations are also done in the case that emissions due to energy crop production are fully additional and thus no reference is considered. The results are combined with data on other emissions due to biofuels production that are derived from existing studies, resulting in total GHG emission reduction potentials for major biofuels compared with conventional fuels. The results show that N₂O emissions can have an important impact on the overall GHG balance of biofuels, though there are large uncertainties. The most important ones are those in the statistical model and the GHG emissions not related to land use. Ethanol produced from sugar cane and sugar beet are relatively robust GHG savers: these biofuels change the GHG emissions by −103% to −60% (sugar cane) and −58% to −17% (sugar beet), compared with conventional transportation fuels and depending on the reference land‐use system that is considered. The use of diesel from palm fruit also results in a relatively constant and substantial change of the GHG emissions by −75% to −39%. For corn and wheat ethanol, the figures are −38% to 11% and −107% to 53%, respectively. Rapeseed diesel changes the GHG emissions by −81% to 72% and soybean diesel by −111% to 44%. Optimized crop management, which involves the use of state‐of‐the‐art agricultural technologies combined with an optimized fertilization regime and the use of nitrification inhibitors, can reduce N₂O emissions substantially and change the GHG emissions by up to −135 percent points (pp) compared with conventional management. However, the uncertainties in the statistical N₂O emission model and in the data on non‐land‐use GHG emissions due to biofuels production are large; they can change the GHG emission reduction by between −152 and 87 pp.     

低碳经济计量模式

首先对"低碳经济"进行了讨论,进而提出了"碳循环经济"概念;对现有碳计量进行研究,提出了相应改进计算公式:碳绩效和碳经济密度。最后,对碳责任分担进行了探讨,提出了发达国家和发展中国家"责任共担、区别对待"的碳责任担负的计算模式。     

Urban ecosystems and the North American carbon cycle

Approximately 75–80% of the population of North America currently lives in urban areas as defined by national census bureaus, and urbanization is continuing to increase. Future trajectories of fossil fuel emissions are associated with a high degree of uncertainty; however, if the activities of urban residents and the rate of urban land conversion can be captured in urban systems models, plausible emissions scenarios from major cities may be generated. Integrated land use and transportation models that simulate energy use and traffic‐related emissions are already in place in many North American cities. To these can be added a growing dataset of carbon gains and losses in vegetation and soils following urbanization, and a number of methods of validating urban carbon balance modeling, including top down atmospheric monitoring and urban ‘metabolic’ studies of whole ecosystem mass and energy flow. Here, we review the state of our understanding of urban areas as whole ecosystems with regard to carbon balance, including both drivers of fossil fuel emissions and carbon cycling in urban plants and soils. Interdisciplinary, whole‐ecosystem studies of the socioeconomic and biophysical factors that influence urban carbon cycles in a range of cities may greatly contribute to improving scenarios of future carbon balance at both continental and global scales.     

基于产业链视角的京津冀区域碳排放影响因素研究

随着京津冀一体化程度不断加深,产业交叉现象严重,深入研究京津冀区域各产业链路径碳排放的影响因素,对区域协同减排具有重要意义。使用环境扩展投入产出分析对2002—2017年京津冀区域消费端碳排放进行核算;利用结构分解分析识别京津冀区域碳排放的驱动因素;通过结构路径分解进一步从微观产业链层面追溯引起京津冀区域碳排放变动的关键路径及其关键因素。研究结果表明：资本形成是构成京津冀区域消费端碳排放的主要需求类别;经济规模和人口是促进碳排放增加的重要因素,碳排放强度对碳排放起到显著抑制作用,区域内产业结构、消费结构对北京市、天津市和河北省的碳排放影响存在差异;从产业链路径来看,不同碳排放驱动因素对京津冀区域不同产业链路径的影响大小和方向不同,应聚焦具体路径,实施上下游综合治理。     

基于生命周期的风电场碳排放核算

风电是实现低碳战略的主力能源技术之一。为全面分析其对环境的影响,将自然植被纳入系统边界,计量风电场建设前后植被破坏及恢复带来的影响。在清单分析中,重点考虑对碳排影响较大的配件生产及运输、建设期工程车耗油排放,更加合理地核算风电场碳排放和量化其环境影响。核算结果表明:案例风电场全生命周期排碳量为2.97×104t C;运营期由于电能损耗造成的CO2排放量远大于其它阶段,占全过程的57.74%;整个过程中,能源消耗造成的碳排放远大于资源损耗排放。     

旅游风景区旅游交通系统碳足迹评估——以南岳衡山为例

随着全国各地旅游业的蓬勃发展,旅游风景区内碳排放总量不断攀升,严重影响了旅游业的可持续发展。选择南岳衡山旅游风景区为典型案例区,运用生命周期评价理论,构建了南岳风景区旅游交通系统碳足迹计算模型。结果表明:①从总量来看,不同类型交通方式的碳足迹情况相差甚远。公路旅游交通对旅游景区的环境威胁最大,碳足迹总量是索道旅游交通的2.6倍,人行道旅游交通的46.1倍;②从阶段构成来看,公路和索道旅游交通系统运营使用阶段碳足迹占整个生命周期的大部分,所占比率分别为79%和96%.而人行道旅游交通系统中建造施工和运营后期阶段能源消耗比较大;③从来源构成来看,在使用期内公路旅游交通的碳足迹比重最大,约占碳足迹总量的71%,其次是索道旅游交通占27%,人行道旅游交通仅占2%。研究结果有利于实现旅游风景区低碳旅游发展目标,为旅游风景区节能减排提供理论支撑。     

Carbon emission accounting and spatial distribution of industrial entities in Beijing—Combining nighttime light data and urban functional areas

Quantifying current carbon emissions their fine scale spatial distribution is necessary to improve carbon emission management, requirements, and emission reduction strategies of key industries. This study established an entity-level model to estimate carbon emissions by combining geographic information of points of interest (POIs) and nighttime light data from Beijing in 2018. The model accounted for the carbon emissions of Beijing's key entities and industries and simulated their spatial distribution. The results showed a good fit between the carbon emissions of the entities and nighttime light brightness values. The 130-m resolution of the urban carbon emission distribution data had a higher spatial simulation accuracy than that of the 1-km Open-Data inventory for anthropogenic carbon dioxide (ODIAC) data. Through the lens of urban functional areas, the average value of carbon emissions was highest in commercial areas and lowest in public management and service areas, at 78,840.11 tC/km² and 6844.79 tC/km², respectively. In terms of the industrial sector, the transportation industry had the highest carbon emissions, with a total of 31.86 Mt., while non-metal mining and oil and gas extraction had almost no energy consumption, with total carbon emissions of 1.38 Mt. The spatial clustering results showed that the distribution of carbon emissions in Beijing had a significant positive spatial correlation; forming high-high aggregation clusters dominated by the city center and major business districts and a low-low aggregation clusters dominated by the city's suburban areas. The simulation model clearly reflected the fine scale characteristics of carbon emissions, in terms of their quantity and spatial distribution. Results obtained in this study can aid relevant departments to formulate appropriate strategies for collectively guiding industrial enterprises towards carbon neutrality.     

基于CGE碳税政策对北京社会经济系统的影响分析

根据研究需要与北京市2010年投入产出表部门划分情况,尽可能地对能源部门进行细分,并编制社会核算矩阵。构建可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型模拟碳税政策对北京市社会经济的影响。实证结果显示:碳税政策具有显著的节能减排效果,对于化石能源密集型产业产出具有明显的抑制作用,但对于清洁能源、服务业等行业产出具有促进作用。因此严格限制煤炭、石油等高碳化石能源的使用、开发高碳能源低碳化利用技术是减排的重要措施。由于碳税会使产品价格上升,从而导致消费需求减少,碳税对国内生产总值和社会福利具有一定的负面影响,虽然影响程度的相对量有限,但影响的绝对效果较大,应该避免较高的碳税税率。     

煤矿固废资源化利用的生态效率与碳减排——以淮北市为例

工业固废的大量堆积产生多种环境危害,工业固废的资源化利用能够节约资源和缓解环境压力。建筑行业是能源消耗和碳排放的主要部门之一,其中建筑材料生产阶段的能耗和碳排放占有重要的地位。粉煤灰、煤矸石是常见的工业固体废物,尤其是在以煤炭为主要能源的地区。粉煤灰、煤矸石资源化利用的途径之一是用于制造新型墙体砖。本文以煤炭资源型城市淮北市的新型墙体砖(粉煤灰砌块、煤矸石砖)和传统墙体砖(粘土砖、粘土多孔砖)为案例,对墙体砖生产过程的生态效率和碳排放进行分析和比较。在淮北市墙体材料行业碳排放不增加的前提下,以最优生态效率为目标,建立线性规划模型,对淮北市4种主要墙体材料的产量进行规划。分析结果表明:新型墙体材料的生态效率高于传统墙体材料;煤矸石砖生产过程的碳排放系数高于传统墙体砖;粉煤灰砌块生产过程的碳排放系数介于粘土砖和粘土多孔砖之间。在淮北市墙体材料行业碳排放不增加的前提下,与现有的产量相比,淮北市应禁止粘土砖的生产,适当减少粘土多孔砖的产量,适当增加粉煤灰砌块和煤矸石砖的产量,以达到最优生态效率。在最优生态效率的情况下,淮北市新型墙体材料煤矸石砖对煤矸石工业固废的利用率将由目前的15.8%增加到25.2%。     

No Matter – How?: Dealing with Matter‐less Stressors in LCA of Wind Energy Systems

The portfolio of impacts that are quantified in life cycle assessment (LCA) has grown to include rather different stressors than those that were the focus of early LCAs. Some of the newest life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) models are still in an early phase of development and have not yet been included in any LCA study. This is the case for sound emissions and noise impacts, which have been only recently modeled. Sound emissions are matter‐less, time dependent, and bound to the physical properties of waves. The way sound emissions and the relative noise impacts are modeled in LCA can show how new or existing matter‐less impacts can be addressed. In this study, we analyze, through the example of sound emissions, the specific features of a matter‐less impact that does not stem from the use of a kilogram of matter, nor is related to the emission of a kilogram of matter. We take as a case study the production of energy by means of wind turbines, contradicting the commonly held assumption that windmills have no emissions during use. We show how to account for sound emissions in the life cycle inventory phase of the life cycle of a wind turbine and then calculate the relative impacts using a noise LCIA model.