Short-term rates of parasite evolution predict the evolution of host diversity

Coevolution with parasites has been implicated as an important factor driving the evolution of host diversity. Studies to date have focussed on gross effects of parasites: how host diversity differs in the presence vs. absence of parasites. But parasite-imposed selection is likely to show rapid variation through time. It is unclear whether short-term fluctuations in the strength of parasite-imposed selection tend to affect host diversity, because increases in host diversity are likely to be constrained by both the supply of genetic variation and ecological processes. We followed replicate populations of coevolving, initially isogenic, bacteria and phages through time, measuring host diversity (with respect to bacterial colony morphologies), host density and rates of parasite evolution. Both host density and time-lagged rates of parasite evolution were good independent predictors of the magnitude of bacterial within- and between-population diversities. Rapid parasite evolution and low host density decreased host within-population diversity, but increased between-population diversity. This study demonstrates that short-term changes in the rate of parasite evolution can predictably drive patterns of host diversity.     

The evolution of parasite virulence, superinfection, and host resistance

We analyze the evolutionary consequences of host resistance (the ability to decrease the probability of being infected by parasites) for the evolution of parasite virulence (the deleterious effect of a parasite on its host). When only single infections occur, host resistance does not affect the evolution of parasite virulence. However, when superinfections occur, resistance tends to decrease the evolutionarily stable (ES) level of parasite virulence. We first study a simple model in which the host does not coevolve with the parasite (i.e., the frequency of resistant hosts is independent of the parasite). We show that a higher proportion of resistant host decreases the ES level of parasite virulence. Higher levels of the efficiency of host resistance, however, do not always decrease the ES parasite virulence. The implications of these results for virulence management (evolutionary consequences of public health policies) are discussed. Second, we analyze the case where host resistance is allowed to coevolve with parasite virulence using the classical gene-for-gene (GFG) model of host-parasite interaction. It is shown that GFG coevolution leads to lower parasite virulence (in comparison with a fully susceptible host population). The model clarifies and relates the different components of the cost of parasitism: infectivity (ability to infect the host) and virulence (deleterious effect) in an evolutionary perspective.     

The evolution of dispersal

A non-local model for dispersal with continuous time and space is carefully justified and discussed. The necessary mathematical background is developed and we point out some interesting and challenging problems. While the basic model is not new, a spread parameter (effectively the width of the dispersal kernel) has been introduced along with a conventional rate paramter, and we compare their competitive advantages and disadvantages in a spatially heterogeneous environment. We show that, as in the case of reaction-diffusion models, for fixed spread slower rates of diffusion are always optimal. However, fixing the dispersal rate and varying the spread while assuming a constant cost of dispersal leads to more complicated results. For example, in a fairly general setting given two phenotypes with different, but small spread, the smaller spread is selected while in the case of large spread the larger spread is selected. S. Martinez was partially supported by Fondecyt 1020126 and Fondecyt Lineas Complementarias 8000010. K. Mischaikow was supported in part by NSF Grant DMS 0107396. Key words or phases:Non-local dispersal – Integral kernel – Evolution of dispersal     

The evolution of host manipulation by parasites: a game theory analysis

Many parasites are known to manipulate the behaviour of intermediate hosts in order to increase their probability of transmission to definitive hosts. This manipulation must have costs. Here we explore the combined effects of three such costs on the amount of effort a parasite should expend on host manipulation. Manipulation can have direct costs to future reproductive success due to energy expended to manipulate the host. There may also be indirect costs if other parasites infect the host and profit from the manipulation without paying the cost of manipulation. These “free riders” may impose a third cost by competing with manipulators for resources within the host. Using game theory analysis and several different competition models we show that intrahost competition will decrease the investment that a parasite should make in manipulation but that manipulation can, under some circumstances, be a profitable strategy even in the presence of non-manipulating competitors. The key determinants of the manipulator’s success and its investment in manipulation are the relatedness among parasites within the host, the ratio of the passive transmission rate to the efficiency of increasing transmission rate and the strength of competitive effects. Manipulation, when exploited by others, becomes an altruistic behaviour. Thus we suggest that our model may be generally applicable to cases where organisms can exploit the investment of others (possibly kin) while also competing with the organism whose investment they exploit.     

Intraspecific conflict over host manipulation between different larval stages of an acanthocephalan parasite

Competitive interactions between coinfecting parasites are expected to be strong when they affect transmission success. When transmission is enhanced by altering host behaviour, intraspecific conflict can lead to 'coinfection exclusion' by the first-in parasite or to a 'sabotage' of behavioural manipulation by the youngest noninfective parasite. We tested these hypotheses in the acanthocephalan parasite Pomphorhynchus laevis, reversing phototaxis in its intermediate host Gammarus pulex. No evidence was found for coinfection exclusion in gammarids sequentially exposed to infection. Behavioural manipulation was slightly weakened but not cancelled in gammarids infected with mixed larval stages. Therefore, coinfecting infective and noninfective larvae both suffered competition, potentially resulting in delayed transmission and increased risk of mortality, respectively. Consequently, noninfective larva is not just a 'passive passenger' in the manipulated host, which raises interesting questions about the selective pressures at play and the mechanisms underlying manipulation.     

The evolution of density-dependent dispersal

Despite a large body of empirical evidence suggesting that the dispersal rates of many species depend on population density, most metapopulation models assume a density-independent rate of dispersal. Similarly, studies investigating the evolution of dispersal have concentrated almost exclusively on density-independent rates of dispersal. We develop a model that allows density-dependent dispersal strategies to evolve. Our results demonstrate that a density-dependent dispersal strategy almost always evolves and that the form of the relationship depends on reproductive rate, type of competition, size of subpopulation equilibrium densities and cost of dispersal. We suggest that future metapopulation models should account for density-dependent dispersal     

The evolution of dispersal polymorphisms in insects: The influence of habitats,host plants and mates

Wing-dimorphic, delphacid planthoppers were used to test hypotheses concerning the effects of habitat persistence and architectural complexity on the occurrence of dispersal. For reasons concerning both the durational stability of the habitat and the reduced availability of mates, selection has favored high levels of dispersal in species occupying temporary habitats. Flightlessness predominates in species occupying persistent habitats, and is promoted by a phenotypic trade-off between reproductive success and flight capability. Wings are retained in tree-inhabiting species, probably for reasons concerning the more effective negotiation of three-dimensional habitats. In contrast, flightlessness is characteristic of those species inhabiting low profile host plants. For several delphacid genera, migratory species are larger than their sedentary congeners. Because body size and fecundity are positively related in planthoppers, the large body size observed in migratory taxa may result from selection for increased fecundity in colonizing species.     

Host-parasite dynamics and the evolution of host immunity and parasite fecundity strategies

We explore evolutionarily stable co-evolution of host-macroparasite interactions in a discrete-time two-species population dynamics model, in which the dynamics may be stable, cyclic or chaotic. The macroparasites are assumed to harm host individuals through decreased reproductive output. Hosts may develop costly immune responses to defend themselves against parasites. Parasites compete with conspecifics by adjusting their fecundities. Overall, the presence of both parasites and the immune response in hosts produces more stable dynamics and lower host population sizes than that observed in the absence of the parasites. In our evolutionary analyses, we show that maximum parasite fecundity is always an evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS), irrespective of the type of population interaction, and that maximum parasite fecundity generally induces a minimum parasite population size through over-exploitation of the host. Phenotypic polymorphisms with respect to immunity in the host species are common and expected in ESS host strategies: the benefits of immunication depend on the frequency of the immune hosts in the population. In particular, the steady-state proportions of immune hosts depend, in addition to all the parameters of the parasite dynamics only on the cost of immunity and on the virulence of parasites in susceptible hosts. The implicit ecological dynamics of the host-parasite interaction affect the proportion of immune host individuals in the population. Furthermore, when changes in certain population parameters cause the dynamics of the host-parasite interaction to move from stability to cyclicity and then to chaos, the proportion of immune hosts tends to decrease; however, we also detected counter-examples to this result. As a whole, incorporating immunological and genetic aspects, as well as life-history trade-offs, into host-macroparasite dynamics produces a rich extension to the patterns observed in the models of ecological interactions and epidemics, and deserves more attention than is currently the case.     

The impact of parasite dispersal on antagonistic host-parasite coevolution

Coevolving populations of hosts and parasites are often subdivided into a set of patches connected by dispersal. Higher relative rates of parasite compared with host dispersal are expected to lead to parasite local adaptation. However, we know of no studies that have considered the implications of higher relative rates of parasite dispersal for other aspects of the coevolutionary process, such as the rate of coevolution and extent of evolutionary escalation of resistance and infectivity traits. We investigated the effect of phage dispersal on coevolution in experimental metapopulations of the bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens SBW25 and its viral parasite, phage SBW25Phi2. Both the rate of coevolution and the breadth of evolved infectivity and resistance ranges peaked at intermediate rates of parasite dispersal. These results suggest that parasite dispersal can enhance the evolutionary potential of parasites through provision of novel genetic variation, but that high rates of parasite dispersal can impede the evolution of parasites by homogenizing genetic variation between patches, thereby constraining coevolution.     

The parasite capacity of the host population

The estimation of parasitic pressure on the host populations is frequently required in parasitological investigations. The empirical values of prevalence of infection are used for this, however the latter one as an estimation of parasitic pressure on the host population is insufficient. For example, the same prevalence of infection can be insignificant for the population with high reproductive potential and excessive for the population with the low reproductive potential. Therefore the development of methods of an estimation of the parasitic pressure on the population, which take into account the features the host population, is necessary. Appropriate parameters are to be independent on view of the researcher, have a clear biological sense and be based on easily available characteristics. The methods of estimation of parasitic pressure on the host at the organism level are based on various individual viability parameters: longevity, resistance to difficult environment etc. The natural development of this approach for population level is the analysis of viability parameters of groups, namely, the changing of extinction probability of host population under the influence of parasites. Obviously, some critical values of prevalence of infection should exist; above theme the host population dies out. Therefore the heaviest prevalence of infection, at which the probability of host population size decreases during the some period is less than probability of that increases or preserves, can serve as an indicator of permissible parasitic pressure on the host population. For its designation the term "parasite capacity of the host population" is proposed. The real parasitic pressure on the host population should be estimated on the comparison with its parasite capacity. Parasite capacity of the host population is the heaviest possible prevalence of infection, at which, with the generation number T approaching infinity, there exists at least one initial population size ni(0) for which the probability of size decrease through T generations is less than the probability of its increase. [formula: see text] The estimation of the probabilities of host population size changes is necessary for the parasite capacity determination. The classical methods for the estimation of extinction probability of population are unsuitable in this case, as these methods require the knowledge of population growth rates and their variances for all possible population sizes. Thus, the development methods of estimate of extinction probability of population, based on the using of available parameters (sex ratio, fecundity, mortality, prevalence of infection PI) is necessary. The population size change can be considered as the Markov process. The probabilities of all changes of population size for a generation in this case are described by a matrix of transition probabilities of Markov process (pi) with dimensions Nmax x Nmax (maximum population size). The probabilities of all possible size changes for T generations can be calculated as pi T. Analyzing the behaviour matrix of transition at various prevalence of infection, it is possible to determine the parasite capacity of the host population. In constructing of the matrix of transition probabilities, should to be taken into account the features the host population and the influence of parasites on its reproductive potential. The set of the possible population size at a generation corresponds to each initial population size. The transition probabilities for the possible population sizes at a generation can be approximated to the binomial distribution. The possible population sizes at a generation nj(t + 1) can be calculated as sums of the number of survived parents N1 and posterities N2; their probabilities--as P(N1) x P(N2). The probabilities of equal sums N1 + N2 and nj(t + 1) > or = Nmax are added. The number of survived parents N1 may range from 0 to (1-PI) x ni(t). The survival probabilities can be estimated for each N1 as [formula: see text] The number of survived posterities N2 may range from 0 to N2max (the maximum number of posterities). N2max is [formula: see text] and the survival probabilities for each N2, is defined as [formula: see text] where [formula: see text], ni(t) is the initial population size (including of males and infected specimens of host), PI is the prevalence of infection, Q1 is the survival probabilities of parents, Pfemales is the frequency of females in the host population, K is the number of posterities per a female, and Q2 is the survival probabilities of posterities. When constructing matrix of transition probabilities of Markov process (pi), the procedure outlined above should be repeated for all possible initial population size. Matrix of transition probabilities for T generations is defined as pi T. This matrix (pi T) embodies all possible transition probabilities from the initial population sizes to the final population sizes and contains a wealth of information by itself. From the practical point of view, however, the plots of the probability of population size decrease are more suitable for analysis. They can be received by summing the probabilities within of lines of matrix from 0 to ni--1 (ni--the population size, which corresponds to the line of the matrix). Offered parameter has the number of advantages. Firstly, it is independent on a view of researcher. Secondly, it has a clear biological sense--this is a limit of prevalence, which is safe for host population. Thirdly, only available parameters are used in the calculation of parasite capacity: population size, sex ratio, fecundity, mortality. Lastly, with the availability of modern computers calculations do not make large labour. Drawbacks of this parameter: 1. The assumption that prevalence of infection, mortality, fecundity and sex ratio are constant in time (the situations are possible when the variability of this parameters can not be neglected); 2. The term "maximum population size" has no clear biological sense; 3. Objective restrictions exist for applications of this mathematical approach for populations with size, which exceeds 1000 specimens (huge quantity of computing operations--order Nmax 3*(T-1), work with very low probabilities). The further evolution of the proposed approach will allow to transfer from the probabilities of size changes of individual populations to be probabilities of size changes of population systems under the influence of parasites. This approach can be used at the epidemiology and in the conservation biology.     

The evolution of dispersal under demographic stochasticity

Temporal and spatial variations of the environment are important factors favoring the evolution of dispersal. With few exceptions, these variations have been considered to be exclusively fluctuations of habitat quality. However, since the presence of conspecifics forms part of an individual's environment, demographic stochasticity may be a component of this variability as well, in particular when local populations are small. To study this effect, we analyzed the evolution of juvenile dispersal in a metapopulation model in which habitat quality is constant in space and time but occupancy fluctuates because of demographic stochasticity. Our analysis extends previous studies in that it includes competition of resources and competition for space. Also, juvenile dispersal is not given by a fixed probability but is made conditional on the presence of free territories in a patch, whereas individuals born in full patches will always disperse. Using a combination of analytical and numerical approaches, we show that demographic stochasticity in itself may provide enough variability to favor dispersal even from patches that are not fully occupied. However, there is no simple relationship between the evolution of dispersal and various indicators of demographic stochasticity. Selected dispersal depends on all aspects of the life-history profile, including kin selection.     

The evolution of dispersal in random environment

In this paper we introduce a stochastic model for a population living and migrating between s sites without distinction in the states between residents and immigrants. The evolutionary stable strategies (ESS) is characterized by the maximization of a stochastic growth rate. We obtain that the expectation of reproductive values, normalized by some random quantity, are constant on all sites and that the expectation of the normalized vector population structure is proportional to eigenvector of the dispersion matrix associated to eigenvalue one, which are, in some way, analogous to the results obtained in the deterministic case.     

The dynamics of parasite incidence across host species

Whilst it is well known that many parasites occasionally switch from one host species to another and thus spread within a host clade, the patterns of spread and the observed heterogeneity in parasite incidence between host taxa are not well understood. Here, we develop a simple stochastic model as a first attempt to understand these ‘incidence dynamics’. Based on the empirically supported assumption that the probability of successful transmission from an infected to a new host species declines with increasing genetic distance between them, we study the impact of different phylogenetic histories of the host clade on the pattern of spread and the average incidence of the parasites. Our results suggest that host phylogeny alone can lead to heterogeneous parasite incidence.     

The implications of immunopathology for parasite evolution

By definition, parasites harm their hosts, but in many infections much of the pathology is driven by the host immune response rather than through direct damage inflicted by parasites. While these immunopathological effects are often well studied and understood mechanistically in individual disease interactions, there remains relatively little understanding of their broader impact on the evolution of parasites and their hosts. Here, we theoretically investigate the implications of immunopathology, broadly defined as additional mortality associated with the host's immune response, on parasite evolution. In particular, we examine how immunopathology acting on different epidemiological traits (namely transmission, virulence and recovery) affects the evolution of disease severity. When immunopathology is costly to parasites, such that it reduces their fitness, for example by decreasing transmission, there is always selection for increased disease severity. However, we highlight a number of host-parasite interactions where the parasite may benefit from immunopathology, and highlight scenarios that may lead to the evolution of slower growing parasites and potentially reduced disease severity. Importantly, we find that conclusions on disease severity are highly dependent on how severity is measured. Finally, we discuss the effect of treatments used to combat disease symptoms caused by immunopathology.     

The effect of host heterogeneity and parasite intragenomic interactions on parasite population structure

Understanding the processes that shape the genetic structure of parasite populations and the functional consequences of different parasite genotypes is critical for our ability to predict how an infection can spread through a host population and for the design of effective vaccines to combat infection and disease. Here, we examine how the genetic structure of parasite populations responds to host genetic heterogeneity. We consider the well-characterized molecular specificity of major histocompatibility complex binding of antigenic peptides to derive deterministic and stochastic models. We use these models to ask, firstly, what conditions favour the evolution of generalist parasite genotypes versus specialist parasite genotypes? Secondly, can parasite genotypes coexist in a population? We find that intragenomic interactions between parasite loci encoding antigenic peptides are pivotal in determining the outcome of evolution. Where parasite loci interact synergistically (i.e. the recognition of additional antigenic peptides has a disproportionately large effect on parasite fitness), generalist parasite genotypes are favoured. Where parasite loci act multiplicatively (have independent effects on fitness) or antagonistically (have diminishing effects on parasite fitness), specialist parasite genotypes are favoured. A key finding is that polymorphism is not stable and that, with respect to functionally important antigenic peptides, parasite populations are dominated by a single genotype.     

The evolution of dispersal conditioned on migration status

We consider a model for the evolution of dispersal of offspring. Dispersal is treated as a parental trait that is expressed conditional upon a parent's own "migration status," that is, whether a parent, itself, is native or nonnative to the area in which it breeds. We compare the evolution of this kind of conditional dispersal to the evolution of unconditional dispersal, in order to determine the extent to which the former changes predictions about population-wide levels of dispersal. We use numerical simulations of an inclusive-fitness model, and individual-based simulations to predict population-average dispersal rates for the case in which dispersal based on migration status occurs. When our model predictions are compared to predictions that neglect conditional dispersal, observed differences between rates are only slight, and never exceed 0.06. While the effect of dispersal conditioned upon migration status could be detected in a carefully designed experiment, we argue that less-than-ideal experimental conditions, and factors such as dispersal conditioned on sex are likely to play a larger role that the type of conditional dispersal studied here.     

The evolution of dispersal distance in spatially-structured populations

Most evolutionary models of dispersal have concentrated on dispersal rate, with emigration being either global or restricted to nearest neighbours. Yet most organisms fall into an intermediate region where most dispersal is local but there is a wide range of dispersal distances. We use an individual-based model with 2500 patches each with identical local dynamics and show that the dispersal distance is under selection pressure. The dispersal distance that evolves is critically dependent on the ecological dynamics. When the cost of dispersal increases linearly with distance, selection is for short-distance dispersal under stable and damped local dynamics but longer distance dispersal is favoured as local dynamics become more complex. For the cases of stable, damped and periodic patch dynamics global patch synchrony occurs even with very short-distance dispersal. Increasing the scale of dispersal for chaotic local dynamics increases the scale of synchrony but global synchrony does not neccesarily occur. We discuss these results in the light of other possible causes of dispersal and argue for the importance of incorporating non-equilibrium population dynamics into evolutionary models of dispersal distance.