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1.
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus persists in Asia, posing a threat to poultry, wild birds, and humans. Previous work in Southeast Asia demonstrated that HPAI H5N1 risk is related to domestic ducks and people. Other studies discussed the role of migratory birds in the long distance spread of HPAI H5N1. However, the interplay between local persistence and long-distance dispersal has never been studied. We expand previous geospatial risk analysis to include South and Southeast Asia, and integrate the analysis with migration data of satellite-tracked wild waterfowl along the Central Asia flyway. We find that the population of domestic duck is the main factor delineating areas at risk of HPAI H5N1 spread in domestic poultry in South Asia, and that other risk factors, such as human population and chicken density, are associated with HPAI H5N1 risk within those areas. We also find that satellite tracked birds (Ruddy Shelduck and two Bar-headed Geese) reveal a direct spatio-temporal link between the HPAI H5N1 hot-spots identified in India and Bangladesh through our risk model, and the wild bird outbreaks in May-June-July 2009 in China (Qinghai Lake), Mongolia, and Russia. This suggests that the continental-scale dynamics of HPAI H5N1 are structured as a number of persistence areas delineated by domestic ducks, connected by rare transmission through migratory waterfowl.  相似文献   

2.
Thirty-two epizootics of high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) have been reported in poultry and other birds since 1959. The ongoing H5N1 HPAI epizootic that began in 1996 has also spilled over to infect wild birds. Traditional stamping-out programs in poultry have resulted in eradication of most HPAI epizootics. However, vaccination of poultry was added as a control tool in 1995 and has been used during five epizootics. Over 113 billion doses of AI vaccine have been used in poultry from 2002 to 2010 as oil-emulsified, inactivated whole AIV vaccines (95.5%) and live vectored vaccines (4.5%). Over 99% of the vaccine has been used in the four H5N1 HPAI enzootic countries: China including Hong Kong (91%), Egypt (4.7%), Indonesia (2.3%), and Vietnam (1.4%) where vaccination programs have been nationwide and routine to all poultry. Ten other countries used vaccine in poultry in a focused, risk-based manner but this accounted for less than 1% of the vaccine used. Most vaccine “failures” have resulted from problems in the vaccination process; i.e., failure to adequately administer the vaccine to at-risk poultry resulting in lack of population immunity, while fewer failures have resulted from antigenic drift of field viruses away from the vaccine viruses. It is currently not feasible to vaccinate wild birds against H5N1 HPAI, but naturally occurring infections with H5 low pathogenicity avian influenza viruses may generate cross-protective immunity against H5N1 HPAI. The most feasible method to prevent and control H5N1 HPAI in wild birds is through control of the disease in poultry with use of vaccine to reduce environmental burden of H5N1 HPAIV, and eventual eradication of the virus in domestic poultry, especially in domestic ducks which are raised in enzootic countries on range or in other outdoor systems having contact with wild aquatic and periurban terrestrial birds.  相似文献   

3.
The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus has spread across Eurasia and into Africa. Its persistence in a number of countries continues to disrupt poultry production, impairs smallholder livelihoods, and raises the risk a genotype adapted to human-to-human transmission may emerge. While previous studies identified domestic duck reservoirs as a primary risk factor associated with HPAI H5N1 persistence in poultry in Southeast Asia, little is known of such factors in countries with different agro-ecological conditions, and no study has investigated the impact of such conditions on HPAI H5N1 epidemiology at the global scale. This study explores the patterns of HPAI H5N1 persistence worldwide, and for China, Indonesia, and India includes individual provinces that have reported HPAI H5N1 presence during the 2004–2008 period. Multivariate analysis of a set of 14 agricultural, environmental, climatic, and socio-economic factors demonstrates in quantitative terms that a combination of six variables discriminates the areas with human cases and persistence: agricultural population density, duck density, duck by chicken density, chicken density, the product of agricultural population density and chicken output/input ratio, and purchasing power per capita. The analysis identifies five agro-ecological clusters, or niches, representing varying degrees of disease persistence. The agro-ecological distances of all study areas to the medoid of the niche with the greatest number of human cases are used to map HPAI H5N1 risk globally. The results indicate that few countries remain where HPAI H5N1 would likely persist should it be introduced.  相似文献   

4.
The potential existence of a wild bird reservoir for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has been recently questioned by the spread and the persisting circulation of H5N1 HPAI viruses, responsible for concurrent outbreaks in migratory and domestic birds over Asia, Europe, and Africa. During a large-scale surveillance programme over Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, we detected avian influenza viruses of H5N2 subtype with a highly pathogenic (HP) viral genotype in healthy birds of two wild waterfowl species sampled in Nigeria. We monitored the survival and regional movements of one of the infected birds through satellite telemetry, providing a rare evidence of a non-lethal natural infection by an HP viral genotype in wild birds. Phylogenetic analysis of the H5N2 viruses revealed close genetic relationships with H5 viruses of low pathogenicity circulating in Eurasian wild and domestic ducks. In addition, genetic analysis did not reveal known gallinaceous poultry adaptive mutations, suggesting that the emergence of HP strains could have taken place in either wild or domestic ducks or in non-gallinaceous species. The presence of coexisting but genetically distinguishable avian influenza viruses with an HP viral genotype in two cohabiting species of wild waterfowl, with evidence of non-lethal infection at least in one species and without evidence of prior extensive circulation of the virus in domestic poultry, suggest that some strains with a potential high pathogenicity for poultry could be maintained in a community of wild waterfowl.  相似文献   

5.
A large number of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks in poultry and wild birds have been reported in Europe since 2005. Distinct spatial patterns in poultry and wild birds suggest that different environmental drivers and potentially different spread mechanisms are operating. However, previous studies found no difference between these two outbreak types when only the effect of physical environmental factors was analysed. The influence of physical and anthropogenic environmental variables and interactions between the two has only been investigated for wild bird outbreaks. We therefore tested the effect of these environmental factors on HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in poultry, and the potential spread mechanism, and discussed how these differ from those observed in wild birds. Logistic regression analyses were used to quantify the relationship between HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in poultry and environmental factors. Poultry outbreaks increased with an increasing human population density combined with close proximity to lakes or wetlands, increased temperatures and reduced precipitation during the cold season. A risk map was generated based on the identified key factors. In wild birds, outbreaks were strongly associated with an increased Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and lower elevation, though they were similarly affected by climatic conditions as poultry outbreaks. This is the first study that analyses the differences in environmental drivers and spread mechanisms between poultry and wild bird outbreaks. Outbreaks in poultry mostly occurred in areas where the location of farms or trade areas overlapped with habitats for wild birds, whereas outbreaks in wild birds were mainly found in areas where food and shelters are available. The different environmental drivers suggest that different spread mechanisms might be involved: HPAI H5N1 spread to poultry via both poultry and wild birds, whereas contact with wild birds alone seems to drive the outbreaks in wild birds.  相似文献   

6.
H5N1禽流感的威胁与全球应对   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
当前H5N1禽流感在迁徙禽类、家禽中的暴发,以及越来越多的人感染病例的发生,使流感全球大流行的可能性持续存在。简要综述了H5N1禽流感在鸟类和其他动物中的暴发情况,H5N1禽流感的人感染病例,以及全球禽流感应对计划及疫苗、药物、病原体基础研究的进展。  相似文献   

7.
Mongolia combines a near absence of domestic poultry, with an abundance of migratory waterbirds, to create an ideal location to study the epidemiology of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) in a purely wild bird system. Here we present the findings of active and passive surveillance for HPAIV subtype H5N1 in Mongolia from 2005–2011, together with the results of five outbreak investigations. In total eight HPAIV outbreaks were confirmed in Mongolia during this period. Of these, one was detected during active surveillance employed by this project, three by active surveillance performed by Mongolian government agencies, and four through passive surveillance. A further three outbreaks were recorded in the neighbouring Tyva Republic of Russia on a lake that bisects the international border. No HPAIV was isolated (cultured) from 7,855 environmental fecal samples (primarily from ducks), or from 2,765 live, clinically healthy birds captured during active surveillance (primarily shelducks, geese and swans), while four HPAIVs were isolated from 141 clinically ill or dead birds located through active surveillance. Two low pathogenic avian influenza viruses (LPAIV) were cultured from ill or dead birds during active surveillance, while environmental feces and live healthy birds yielded 56 and 1 LPAIV respectively. All Mongolian outbreaks occurred in 2005 and 2006 (clade 2.2), or 2009 and 2010 (clade 2.3.2.1); all years in which spring HPAIV outbreaks were reported in Tibet and/or Qinghai provinces in China. The occurrence of outbreaks in areas deficient in domestic poultry is strong evidence that wild birds can carry HPAIV over at least moderate distances. However, failure to detect further outbreaks of clade 2.2 after June 2006, and clade 2.3.2.1 after June 2010 suggests that wild birds migrating to and from Mongolia may not be competent as indefinite reservoirs of HPAIV, or that HPAIV did not reach susceptible populations during our study.  相似文献   

8.
On 15 November 2016, a black swan that had died in a zoo in Akita prefecture, northern Japan, was strongly suspected to have highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI); an HPAI virus (HPAIV) belonging to the H5N6 subtype was isolated from specimens taken from the bird. After the initial report, 230 cases of HPAI caused by H5N6 viruses from wild birds, captive birds, and domestic poultry farms were reported throughout the country during the winter season. In the present study, 66 H5N6 HPAIVs isolated from northern Japan were further characterized. Phylogenetic analysis of the hemagglutinin gene showed that the H5N6 viruses isolated in northern Japan clustered into Group C of Clade 2.3.4.4 together with other isolates collected in Japan, Korea and Taiwan during the winter season of 2016–2017. The antigenicity of the Japanese H5N6 isolate differed slightly from that of HPAIVs isolated previously in Japan and China. The virus exhibited high pathogenicity and a high replication capacity in chickens, whereas virus growth was slightly lower in ducks compared with that of an H5N8 HPAIV isolate collected in Japan in 2014. Comprehensive analyses of Japanese isolates, including those from central, western, and southern Japan, as well as rapid publication of this information are essential for facilitating greater control of HPAIVs.
  相似文献   

9.
A unique pattern of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks has emerged along the Central Asia Flyway, where infection of wild birds has been reported with steady frequency since 2005. We assessed the potential for two hosts of HPAI H5N1, the bar-headed goose (Anser indicus) and ruddy shelduck (Tadorna tadorna), to act as agents for virus dispersal along this 'thoroughfare'. We used an eco-virological approach to compare the migration of 141 birds marked with GPS satellite transmitters during 2005-2010 with: 1) the spatio-temporal patterns of poultry and wild bird outbreaks of HPAI H5N1, and 2) the trajectory of the virus in the outbreak region based on phylogeographic mapping. We found that biweekly utilization distributions (UDs) for 19.2% of bar-headed geese and 46.2% of ruddy shelduck were significantly associated with outbreaks. Ruddy shelduck showed highest correlation with poultry outbreaks owing to their wintering distribution in South Asia, where there is considerable opportunity for HPAI H5N1 spillover from poultry. Both species showed correlation with wild bird outbreaks during the spring migration, suggesting they may be involved in the northward movement of the virus. However, phylogeographic mapping of HPAI H5N1 clades 2.2 and 2.3 did not support dissemination of the virus in a northern direction along the migration corridor. In particular, two subclades (2.2.1 and 2.3.2) moved in a strictly southern direction in contrast to our spatio-temporal analysis of bird migration. Our attempt to reconcile the disciplines of wild bird ecology and HPAI H5N1 virology highlights prospects offered by both approaches as well as their limitations.  相似文献   

10.
In February 2006, a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus was isolated from Common Pochards (Aythia ferina) in the Dombes region of France, an important migrating and wintering waterfowl area. Thereafter, HPAI H5N1 virus was isolated from 39 swab pools collected from dead waterfowl found in the Dombes, but only from three pooled samples collected outside of this area but located on the same migration flyway. A single turkey farm was infected in the Dombes. The epizootic lasted 2 mo and was restricted to the Dombes area. Virus-positive pools were detected in 20 of 1,200 ponds and infected Mute Swans (Cygnus olor) represented 82% of the virus-positive pools. Other infected species included Common Pochard (n=4), Grey Heron (Ardea cinerea, n=1), Eurasian Buzzard (Buteo buteo, n=1), and Greylag Goose (Anser anser, n=1). Despite intensive monitoring during and after the outbreak, HPAI H5N1 virus was not isolated from healthy wild birds. Our results are consistent with an HPAI H5N1-virus introduction into the Dombes via migrating ducks. These birds could have been pushed west by a severe cold spell in central Europe where the virus had already been detected. The Mute Swan served as an excellent epidemiologic sentinel during this outbreak; swans appear to be highly sensitive to infection with these viruses and swan mortality was easy to detect. During the outbreak, the mortality rates for wild birds remained moderate and the virus affected a limited number of species.  相似文献   

11.
Although increasing data have become available that link human adaptation with specific molecular changes in nonhuman influenza viruses, the molecular changes of these viruses during a large highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAI) outbreak in poultry along with avian-to-human transmission have never been documented. By comprehensive virologic analysis of combined veterinary and human samples obtained during a large HPAI A (H7N7) outbreak in the Netherlands in 2003, we mapped the acquisition of human adaptation markers to identify the public health risk associated with an HPAI outbreak in poultry. Full-length hemagglutinin (HA), neuraminidase (NA), and PB2 sequencing of A (H7N7) viruses obtained from 45 human cases showed amino acid variations at different codons in HA (n=20), NA (n=23), and PB2 (n=23). Identification of the avian sources of human virus infections based on 232 farm sequences demonstrated that for each gene about 50% of the variation was already present in poultry. Polygenic accumulation and farm-to-farm spread of known virulence and human adaptation markers in A (H7N7) virus-infected poultry occurred prior to farm-to-human transmission. These include the independent emergence of HA A143T mutants, accumulation of four NA mutations, and farm-to-farm spread of virus variants harboring mammalian host determinants D701N and S714I in PB2. This implies that HPAI viruses with pandemic potential can emerge directly from poultry. Since the public health risk of an avian influenza virus outbreak in poultry can rapidly change, we recommend virologic monitoring for human adaptation markers among poultry as well as among humans during the course of an outbreak in poultry.  相似文献   

12.

Background

The majority of emerging infectious diseases are zoonotic (transmissible between animals and humans) in origin, and therefore integrated surveillance of disease events in humans and animals has been recommended to support effective global response to disease emergence. While in the past decade there has been extensive global surveillance for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) infection in both animals and humans, there have been few attempts to compare these data streams and evaluate the utility of such integration.

Methodology

We compared reports of bird outbreaks of HPAI H5N1 in Egypt for 2006–2011 compiled by the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) EMPRESi reporting system with confirmed human H5N1 cases reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) for Egypt during the same time period.

Principal Findings

Both human cases and bird outbreaks showed a cyclic pattern for the country as a whole, and there was a statistically significant temporal correlation between the data streams. At the governorate level, the first outbreak in birds in a season usually but not always preceded the first human case, and the time lag between events varied widely, suggesting regional differences in zoonotic risk and/or surveillance effectiveness. In a multivariate risk model, lower temperature, lower urbanization, higher poultry density, and the recent occurrence of a bird outbreak were associated with increased risk of a human case of HPAI in the same governorate, although the positive predictive value of a bird outbreak was low.

Conclusions

Integrating data streams of surveillance for human and animal cases of zoonotic disease holds promise for better prediction of disease risk and identification of environmental and regional factors that can affect risk. Such efforts can also point out gaps in human and animal surveillance systems and generate hypotheses regarding disease transmission.  相似文献   

13.
Since 1996 when Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza type H5N1 first emerged in southern China, numerous studies sought risk factors and produced risk maps based on environmental and anthropogenic predictors. However little attention has been paid to the link between the level of intensification of poultry production and the risk of outbreak. This study revised H5N1 risk mapping in Central and Western Thailand during the second wave of the 2004 epidemic. Production structure was quantified using a disaggregation methodology based on the number of poultry per holding. Population densities of extensively- and intensively-raised ducks and chickens were derived both at the sub-district and at the village levels. LandSat images were used to derive another previously neglected potential predictor of HPAI H5N1 risk: the proportion of water in the landscape resulting from floods. We used Monte Carlo simulation of Boosted Regression Trees models of predictor variables to characterize the risk of HPAI H5N1. Maps of mean risk and uncertainty were derived both at the sub-district and the village levels. The overall accuracy of Boosted Regression Trees models was comparable to that of logistic regression approaches. The proportion of area flooded made the highest contribution to predicting the risk of outbreak, followed by the densities of intensively-raised ducks, extensively-raised ducks and human population. Our results showed that as little as 15% of flooded land in villages is sufficient to reach the maximum level of risk associated with this variable. The spatial pattern of predicted risk is similar to previous work: areas at risk are mainly located along the flood plain of the Chao Phraya river and to the south-east of Bangkok. Using high-resolution village-level poultry census data, rather than sub-district data, the spatial accuracy of predictions was enhanced to highlight local variations in risk. Such maps provide useful information to guide intervention.  相似文献   

14.
15.
We report the molecular epidemiology of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus involved in an outbreak causing death in free-ranging wild birds at Mysore, Karnataka state of India. The virus was typed as HPAI A(H5N8) by conventional and TaqMan probe based real-time PCR assays. Six isolates of HPAI virus were recovered in 9-day-old embryonated chicken eggs. Haemagglutinin gene-based phylogeny of virus isolates showed >?99.9% nucleotide sequence identity with HPAI A(H5N8) isolates from migratory birds and domestic poultry from China and Korea indicating either these wild birds have routed their migration through Korea and/or eastern China or these dead birds must have directly or indirectly contacted with wild birds migrating from Eastern China and/or Korean regions. The study emphasises the role of migratory wild birds in spread of HPAI across the globe.  相似文献   

16.
Wild birds, particularly waterfowl, are a key element of the viral ecology of avian influenza. Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus, subtype H5N1, was first detected in poultry in November 1996 in southeast China, where it originated. The virus subsequently dispersed throughout most of Asia, and also to Africa and Europe. Despite compelling evidence that the virus has been dispersed widely via human activities that include farming, and marketing of poultry, migratory birds have been widely considered to be the primary source of its global dispersal. Here we present a critical examination of the arguments both for and against the role of migratory birds in the global dispersal of HPAI H5N1. We conclude that, whilst wild birds undoubtedly contribute to the local spread of the virus in the wild, human commercial activities, particularly those associated with poultry, are the major factors that have determined its global dispersal.  相似文献   

17.

Background  

The structure of contact between individuals plays an important role in the incursion and spread of contagious diseases in both human and animal populations. In the case of avian influenza, the movement of live birds is a well known risk factor for the geographic dissemination of the virus among poultry flocks. Live bird markets (LBM's) contribute to the epidemiology of avian influenza due to their demographic characteristics and the presence of HPAI H5N1 virus lineages. The relationship between poultry producers and live poultry traders (LPT's) that operate in LBM's has not been adequately documented in HPAI H5N1-affected SE Asian countries. The aims of this study were to document and study the flow of live poultry in a poultry trade network in northern Vietnam, and explore its potential role in the risk for HPAI H5N1 during 2003 to 2006.  相似文献   

18.
Evolutionary dynamics and emergence of panzootic H5N1 influenza viruses   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus lineage has undergone extensive genetic reassortment with viruses from different sources to produce numerous H5N1 genotypes, and also developed into multiple genetically distinct sublineages in China. From there, the virus has spread to over 60 countries. The ecological success of this virus in diverse species of both poultry and wild birds with frequent introduction to humans suggests that it is a likely source of the next human pandemic. Therefore, the evolutionary and ecological characteristics of its emergence from wild birds into poultry are of considerable interest. Here, we apply the latest analytical techniques to infer the early evolutionary dynamics of H5N1 virus in the population from which it emerged (wild birds and domestic poultry). By estimating the time of most recent common ancestors of each gene segment, we show that the H5N1 prototype virus was likely introduced from wild birds into poultry as a non-reassortant low pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus and was not generated by reassortment in poultry. In contrast, more recent H5N1 genotypes were generated locally in aquatic poultry after the prototype virus (A/goose/Guangdong/1/96) introduction occurred, i.e., they were not a result of additional emergence from wild birds. We show that the H5N1 virus was introduced into Indonesia and Vietnam 3-6 months prior to detection of the first outbreaks in those countries. Population dynamics analyses revealed a rapid increase in the genetic diversity of A/goose/Guangdong/1/96 lineage viruses from mid-1999 to early 2000. Our results suggest that the transmission of reassortant viruses through the mixed poultry population in farms and markets in China has selected HPAI H5N1 viruses that are well adapted to multiple hosts and reduced the interspecies transmission barrier of those viruses.  相似文献   

19.

Background

The number of outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus of the H5N1 subtype (HPAIV H5N1) over the past 5 years has been drastically reduced in China but sporadic infections in poultry and humans are still occurring. In this study, we aimed to investigate seasonal patterns in the association between the movement of live poultry originating from southern China and HPAIV H5N1 infection history in humans and poultry in China.

Methodology/Principal Findings

During January to April 2010, longitudinal questionnaire surveys were carried out monthly in four wholesale live bird markets (LBMs) in Hunan and Guangxi provinces of South China. Using social network analysis, we found an increase in the number of observed links and degree centrality between LBMs and poultry sources in February and March compared to the months of January and April. The association of some live poultry traders (LPT’s) with a limited set of counties (within the catchment area of LBMs) in the months of February and March may support HPAIV H5N1 transmission and contribute to perpetuating HPAIV H5N1 virus circulation among certain groups of counties. The connectivity among counties experiencing human infection was significantly higher compared to counties without human infection for the months of January, March and April. Conversely, counties with poultry infections were found to be significantly less connected than counties without poultry infection for the month of February.

Conclusions/Significance

Our results show that temporal variation in live poultry trade in Southern China around the Chinese New Year festivities is associated with higher HPAIV H5N1 infection risk in humans and poultry. This study has shown that capturing the dynamic nature of poultry trade networks in Southern China improves our ability to explain the spatiotemporal dissemination in avian influenza viruses in China.  相似文献   

20.
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 viruses are now endemic in many Asian countries, resulting in repeated outbreaks in poultry and increased cases of human infection. The immediate precursor of these HPAI viruses is believed to be A/goose/Guangdong/1/96 (Gs/GD)-like H5N1 HPAI viruses first detected in Guangdong, China, in 1996. From 2000 onwards, many novel reassortant H5N1 influenza viruses or genotypes have emerged in southern China. However, precursors of the Gs/GD-like viruses and their subsequent reassortants have not been fully determined. Here we characterize low-pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) H5 subtype viruses isolated from poultry and migratory birds in southern China and Europe from the 1970s to the 2000s. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that Gs/GD-like virus was likely derived from an LPAI H5 virus in migratory birds. However, its variants arose from multiple reassortments between Gs/GD-like virus and viruses from migratory birds or with those Eurasian viruses isolated in the 1970s. It is of note that unlike HPAI H5N1 viruses, those recent LPAI H5 viruses have not become established in aquatic or terrestrial poultry. Phylogenetic analyses revealed the dynamic nature of the influenza virus gene pool in Eurasia with repeated transmissions between the eastern and western extremities of the continent. The data also show reassortment between influenza viruses from domestic and migratory birds in this region that has contributed to the expanded diversity of the influenza virus gene pool among poultry in Eurasia.  相似文献   

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