Comparison of HIV prevalence estimates for Zimbabwe from antenatal clinic surveillance (2006) and the 2005-06 Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey

Objective

To assess whether HIV surveillance data from pregnant women attending antenatal care (ANC) clinics in Zimbabwe represent infection levels in the general population.

Methods

HIV prevalence estimates from ANC surveillance sites in 2006 were compared with estimates from the corresponding Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey 2005–06 (ZDHS) clusters using geographic information systems.

Results

The ANC HIV prevalence estimate (17.9%, 95% CI 17.0%–18.8%) was similar to the ZDHS estimates for all men and women aged 15–49 years (18.1%, 16.9%–18.8%), for pregnant women (17.5%, 13.9%–21.9%), and for ANC attendees living within 30 km of ANC surveillance sites (19.9%, 17.1%–22.8%). However, the ANC surveillance estimate (17.9%) was lower than the ZDHS estimates for all women (21.1%, 19.7%–22.6%) and for women living within 30 km catchment areas of ANC surveillance sites (20.9%, 19.4%–22.3%). HIV prevalence in ANC sites classified as urban and rural was significantly lower than in sites classified as “other”.

Conclusions

Periodic population surveys can be used to validate ANC surveillance estimates. In Zimbabwe, ANC surveillance provides reliable estimates of HIV prevalence among men and women aged 15–49 years in the general population. Three classifications of ANC sites (rural/urban/other) should be used when generating national HIV estimates.     

HIV incidence and risk factors for acquisition in HIV discordant couples in Masaka, Uganda: an HIV vaccine preparedness study

Objectives

To determine the incidence of and risk factors for HIV acquisition in a cohort of HIV-uninfected partners from HIV discordant couples in Masaka, Uganda, and to establish its suitability for HIV vaccine trials.

Methods

HIV-uninfected adults living in HIV discordant couple relationships were enrolled and followed for 2 years. Interviews, medical investigations, HIV counseling and testing, syphilis and urine pregnancy (women) tests were performed at quarterly visits. Sexual risk behaviour data were collected every 6 months.

Results

495 participants were enrolled, of whom 34 seroconverted during 786.6 person-years of observation (PYO). The overall HIV incidence rate [95% confidence interval (CI)] was 4.3 [3.1–6]; and 4.3 [2.8–6.4] and 4.4 [2.5–8] per 100 PYO in men and women respectively. Independent baseline predictors for HIV acquisition were young age [18–24 (aRR = 4.1, 95% CI 1.6–10.8) and 25–34 (aRR = 2.7, 95% CI 1.2–5.8) years]; alcohol use (aRR = 2.6, 95% CI 1.1–6); and reported genital discharge (aRR = 3.4, 95% CI 1.6–7.2) in the past year. Condom use frequency in the year preceding enrolment was predictive of a reduced risk of HIV acquisition [sometimes (aRR = 0.4, 95% CI 0.2–0.8); always (aRR = 0.1, 95% CI 0.02–0.9)]. In the follow-up risk analysis, young age [18–24 (aRR = 6.2, 95% CI 2.2–17.3) and 25-34 (aRR = 2.3, 95% CI 1.1–5.0) years], reported genital discharge (aRR = 2.5, 95% CI 1.1–5.5), serological syphilis (aRR 3.2, 95% CI 1.3–7.7) and the partner being ART naïve (aRR = 4.8, 95% CI 1.4–16.0) were independently associated with HIV acquisition. There were no seroconversions among participants who reported consistent condom use during the study.

Conclusions

The study has identified important risk factors for HIV acquisition among HIV discordant couples. HIV-uninfected partners in discordant couples may be a suitable population for HIV vaccine efficacy trials. However, recent confirmation that ART reduces heterosexual HIV transmission may make it unfeasible to conduct HIV prevention trials in this population.     

Uptake of WHO Recommendations for First-Line Antiretroviral Therapy in Kenya,Uganda, and Zambia

Introduction

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) guidelines were significantly changed by the World Health Organization in 2010. It is largely unknown to what extent these guidelines were adopted into clinical practice.

Methods

This was a retrospective observational analysis of first-line ART regimens in a sample of health facilities providing ART in Kenya, Uganda, and Zambia between 2007-2008 and 2011-2012. Data were analyzed for changes in regimen over time and assessed for key patient- and facility-level determinants of tenofovir (TDF) utilization in Kenya and Uganda using a mixed effects model.

Results

Data were obtained from 29,507 patients from 146 facilities. The overall percentage of patients initiated on TDF-based therapy increased between 2007-2008 and 2011-2012 from 3% to 37% in Kenya, 2% to 34% in Uganda, and 64% to 87% in Zambia. A simultaneous decrease in stavudine (d4T) utilization was also noted, but its use was not eliminated, and there remained significant variation in facility prescribing patterns. For patients initiating ART in 2011-2012, we found increased odds of TDF use with more advanced disease at initiation in both Kenya (odds ratio [OR]: 2.78; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.73-4.48) and Uganda (OR: 2.15; 95% CI: 1.46-3.17). Having a CD4 test performed at initiation was also a significant predictor in Uganda (OR: 1.43; 95% CI: 1.16-1.76). No facility-level determinants of TDF utilization were seen in Kenya, but private facilities (OR: 2.86; 95% CI: 1.45-5.66) and those employing a doctor (OR: 2.86; 95% CI: 1.48-5.51) were more likely to initiate patients on TDF in Uganda.

Discussion

d4T-based ART has largely been phased out over the study period. However, significant in-country and cross-country variation exists. Among the most recently initiated patients, those with more advanced disease at initiation were most likely to start TDF-based treatment. No facility-level determinants were consistent across countries to explain the observed facility-level variation.     

Estimated HIV Incidence in California, 2006–2009

Introduction

Accurate estimates of HIV incidence are crucial for prioritizing, targeting, and evaluating HIV prevention efforts. Using the methodology the CDC used to estimate national HIV incidence, we estimated HIV incidence in Los Angeles County (LAC), San Francisco (SF), and California’s remaining counties.

Methods

We estimated new HIV infections in 2006–2009 among adults and adolescents in LAC, SF and the remaining California counties using the Serologic Testing Algorithm for Recent Seroconversion (STARHS). STARHS methodology uses the BED HIV-1 capture enzyme immunoassay to determine recent HIV infections by testing remnant serum from persons newly diagnosed with HIV. A population-based incidence estimate is calculated using HIV testing data from newly diagnosed cases and imputing for persons unaware of their HIV infection.

Results

For years 2007–2009, respectively, we estimated new infections in LAC to be 2426 (95% CI 1871–2982), 1669 (CI 1309–2029) and 1898 (CI 1452–2344) (p<0.01); in SF for 2006–2009, 492 (CI 327–657), 490 (CI 335–646), 458 (CI 342–574) and 367 (CI 261–473) (p = 0.14); and in the remaining California counties in 2008–2009, 2526 (CI 1688–3364) and 2993 (CI 2141–3846) respectively. HIV infection rates among men who have sex with men (MSM) in LAC were 100 times higher than other risk populations; the SF MSM rate was 3 to 18 times higher than other demographic groups. In LAC, incidence rates among African-Americans were twice those of whites and Latinos; persons 40 years or older had lower rates of infection than younger persons.

Discussion

We report the first HIV incidence estimates for California, highlighting geographic disparities in HIV incidence and confirming national findings that MSM and African-Americans are disproportionately impacted by HIV. HIV incidence estimates can and should be used to target prevention efforts towards populations at highest risk of acquiring new HIV infections, focusing on geographic, racial and risk group disparities.     

HIV Prevalence and Incidence in a Cohort of Women at Higher Risk for HIV Acquisition in Chókwè, Southern Mozambique

Background

Reliable HIV incidence estimates for Mozambique are limited. We conducted a prospective HIV incidence study as part of a clinical research site development initiative in Chókwè district, Gaza Province, southern Mozambique.

Methods

Between June 2010 and October 2012, we recruited women at sites where women at higher risk of HIV infection would likely be found. We enrolled and tested 1,429 sexually active women in the screening phase and 479 uninfected women in the prospective phase. Participants were scheduled for 12+ months follow-up, when they underwent face-to-face interviews, HIV counseling and testing, and pregnancy testing. We observed a total of 373.1 woman-years (WY) of follow-up, with mean (median) of 9.4 (9.7) women-months per participant.

Results

The prevalence of HIV was 29.4% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 27.0–31.8%). In multivariable logistic regression analysis, factors that remained significantly associated with prevalent HIV were: older age (OR: 0.6; 95% CI: 0.4–0.7), lower educational level (OR: 0.4; 95% CI: 0.3–0.7), and using hormonal contraception (OR: 0.6; 95% CI: 0.4–0.7) or condoms (OR: 0.5; 95% CI: 0.3–0.7). We observed an HIV incidence rate of 4.6 per 100 WY (95% CI: 2.7, 7.3). The HIV incidence was 4.8 per 100 WY (95% CI: 2.5, 8.3) in women aged 18–24 years, 4.5 per 100 WY (95% CI: 1.2, 11.4) in women aged 25–29 years and 3.2 per 100 WY (95% CI: 0.1, 18.0) in the 30–35 years stratum. None of the demographic factors or time-varying behavioral factors examined was significantly associated with incident HIV infection in bivariable analysis at p≤0.10.

Conclusions

We found a high HIV incidence among sexually active young women in Chókwè, Mozambique. HIV prevention programs should be strengthened in the area, with more comprehensive reproductive health services, regular HIV testing, condom promotion, and messaging about multiple sexual partners.     

High Incidence of HIV-1 Infection in a General Population of Fishing Communities around Lake Victoria,Uganda

Background

High HIV-1 incidence rates were reported among persons in fisherfolk communities (FFC) in Uganda who were selected for high risk behaviour. We assessed the incidence of HIV-1 and associated risk factors in a general population FFC to determine population-wide HIV rates.

Methods

A community-based cohort study was conducted among a random sample of 2191 participants aged 18–49 years. At baseline and 12 months post-baseline, data were collected on socio-demographic characteristics and risky behaviors (including number of partners, new partners, condom use, use of alcohol and illicit drug use). Venous blood was collected for HIV serological testing. HIV incidence was calculated per 100 person years at-risk (pyar) and adjusted incidence rate ratios (Adj.IRR) were estimated by multivariable Poisson regression.

Results

Overall follow up at 12 months was 76.9% (1685/2191) and was significantly higher among HIV uninfected persons and those with at least 1 year duration of stay in community. Overall HIV-1 incidence was 3.39/100 pyar (95% CI: 2.55–4.49). Among the 25–29 years who drank alcohol, HIV incidence was 7.67/100pyar (95% CI;4.62–12.7) while it was 5.67/100pyar (95% CI;3.14–10.2) for 18–24 year olds who drank alcohol. The risk of HIV infection was higher among 25–29 years (adj.IRR = 3.36; 95% CI: 1.48–7.65) and 18–24 years (adj.IRR = 2.65; 95% CI: 1.05–6.70) relative to 30+ years. Compared to non-drinkers, HIV incidence increased by frequency of alcohol drinking - occasional drinkers (adj.IRR = 3.18; 95% CI: 1.18–8.57) and regular drinkers (adj.IRR = 4.93; 95% CI: 1.91–12.8).

Conclusion

HIV-1 incidence in general fisherfolk population along L.Victoria, Uganda, is high and is mainly associated with young age and alcohol drinking. HIV prevention and control strategies are urgently needed in this population.     

No association between HIV and intimate partner violence among women in 10 developing countries

Background

Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) has been reported to be a determinant of women''s risk for HIV. We examined the relationship between women''s self-reported experiences of IPV in their most recent relationship and their laboratory-confirmed HIV serostatus in ten low- to middle-income countries.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Data for the study came from the most recent Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in Dominican Republic, Haiti, India, Kenya, Liberia, Malawi, Mali, Rwanda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Each survey population was a cross-sectional sample of women aged 15–49 years. Information on IPV was obtained by a face-to-face interview with the mother with an 81.1% response rate; information on HIV serostatus was obtained from blood samples with an 85.3% response rate. Demographic and socioeconomic variables were considered as potentially confounding covariates. Logistic regression models accounting for multi-stage survey design were estimated individually for each country and as a pooled total with country fixed effects (n = 60,114). Country-specific adjusted odds ratios (OR) for physical or sexual IPV compared to neither ranged from 0.45 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.23–0.90] in Haiti to 1.35 [95% CI: 0.95–1.90] in India; the pooled association was 1.03 [95% CI: 0.94–1.13]. Country-specific adjusted ORs for physical and sexual IPV compared to no sexual IPV ranged from 0.41 [95% CI: 0.12–1.36] in Haiti to 1.41 [95% CI: 0.26–7.77] in Mali; the pooled association was 1.05 [95% CI: 0.90–1.22].

Conclusions

IPV and HIV were not found to be consistently associated amongst ever-married women in national population samples in these lower income countries, suggesting that IPV is not consistently associated with HIV prevalence worldwide. More research is needed to understand the circumstances in which IPV and HIV are and are not associated with one another.     

HIV incidence in rural South Africa: comparison of estimates from longitudinal surveillance and cross-sectional cBED assay testing

Background

The BED IgG-Capture Enzyme Immunoassay (cBED assay), a test of recent HIV infection, has been used to estimate HIV incidence in cross-sectional HIV surveys. However, there has been concern that the assay overestimates HIV incidence to an unknown extent because it falsely classifies some individuals with non-recent HIV infections as recently infected. We used data from a longitudinal HIV surveillance in rural South Africa to measure the fraction of people with non-recent HIV infection who are falsely classified as recently HIV-infected by the cBED assay (the long-term false-positive ratio (FPR)) and compared cBED assay-based HIV incidence estimates to longitudinally measured HIV incidence.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We measured the long-term FPR in individuals with two positive HIV tests (in the HIV surveillance, 2003–2006) more than 306 days apart (sample size n = 1,065). We implemented four different formulae to calculate HIV incidence using cBED assay testing (n = 11,755) and obtained confidence intervals (CIs) by directly calculating the central 95^th percentile of incidence values. We observed 4,869 individuals over 7,685 person-years for longitudinal HIV incidence estimation. The long-term FPR was 0.0169 (95% CI 0.0100–0.0266). Using this FPR, the cross-sectional cBED-based HIV incidence estimates (per 100 people per year) varied between 3.03 (95% CI 2.44–3.63) and 3.19 (95% CI 2.57–3.82), depending on the incidence formula. Using a long-term FPR of 0.0560 based on previous studies, HIV incidence estimates varied between 0.65 (95% CI 0.00–1.32) and 0.71 (95% CI 0.00–1.43). The longitudinally measured HIV incidence was 3.09 per 100 people per year (95% CI 2.69–3.52), after adjustment to the sex-age distribution of the sample used in cBED assay-based estimation.

Conclusions/Significance

In a rural community in South Africa with high HIV prevalence, the long-term FPR of the cBED assay is substantially lower than previous estimates. The cBED assay performs well in HIV incidence estimation if the locally measured long-term FPR is used, but significantly underestimates incidence when a FPR estimate based on previous studies in other settings is used.     

Intra-Facility Linkage of HIV-Positive Mothers and HIV-Exposed Babies into HIV Chronic Care: Rural and Urban Experience in a Resource Limited Setting

Introduction

Linkage of HIV-infected pregnant women to HIV care remains critical for improvement of maternal and child outcomes through prevention of maternal-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) and subsequent chronic HIV care. This study determined proportions and factors associated with intra-facility linkage to HIV care and Early Infant Diagnosis care (EID) to inform strategic scale up of PMTCT programs.

Methods

A cross-sectional review of records was done at 2 urban and 3 rural public health care facilities supported by the Infectious Diseases Institute (IDI). HIV-infected pregnant mothers, identified through routine antenatal care (ANC) and HIV-exposed babies were evaluated for enrollment in HIV clinics by 6 weeks post-delivery.

Results

Overall, 1,025 HIV-infected pregnant mothers were identified during ANC between January and June, 2012; 267/1,025 (26%) in rural and 743/1,025 (74%) in urban facilities. Of these 375/1,025 (37%) were linked to HIV clinics [67/267(25%) rural and 308/758(41%) urban]. Of 636 HIV-exposed babies, 193 (30%) were linked to EID. Linkage of mother-baby pairs to HIV chronic care and EID was 16% (101/636); 8/179 (4.5%)] in rural and 93/457(20.3%) in urban health facilities. Within rural facilities, ANC registration <28 weeks-of-gestation was associated with mothers'' linkage to HIV chronic care [AoR, 2.0 95% CI, 1.1–3.7, p = 0.019] and mothers'' multi-parity was associated with baby''s linkage to EID; AoR 4.4 (1.3–15.1), p = 0.023. Stigma, long distance to health facilities and vertical PMTCT services affected linkage in rural facilities, while peer mothers, infant feeding services, long patient queues and limited privacy hindered linkage to HIV care in urban settings.

Conclusion

Post-natal linkage of HIV-infected mothers to chronic HIV care and HIV-exposed babies to EID programs was low. Barriers to linkage to HIV care vary in urban and rural settings. We recommend targeted interventions to rapidly improve linkage to antiretroviral therapy for elimination of MTCT.     

Effectiveness of Antenatal Clinics to Deliver Intermittent Preventive Treatment and Insecticide Treated Nets for the Control of Malaria in Pregnancy in Kenya

Background

Malaria in pregnancy can have devastating consequences for mother and baby. Coverage with the WHO prevention strategy for sub-Saharan Africa of intermittent-preventive-treatment (IPTp) with two doses of sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) and insecticide-treated-nets (ITNs) in pregnancy is low. We analysed household survey data to evaluate the effectiveness of antenatal clinics (ANC) to deliver IPTp and ITNs to pregnant women in Nyando district, Kenya.

Methods

We assessed the systems effectiveness of ANC to deliver IPTp and ITNs to pregnant women and the impact on low birthweight (LBW). Logistic regression was used to identify predictors of receipt of IPTp and ITN use during pregnancy.

Results

Among 89% of recently pregnant women who attended ANC at least once between 4–9 months gestation, 59% reported receiving one dose of SP and 90% attended ANC again, of whom 57% received a second dose, resulting in a cumulative effectiveness for IPTp of 27%, most of whom used an ITN (96%). Overall ITN use was 89%, and ANC the main source (76%). Women were less likely to receive IPTp if they had low malaria knowledge (0.26, 95% CI 0.08–0.83), had a child who had died (OR 0.36, 95% CI 0.14–0.95), or if they first attended ANC late (OR 0.20, 95% CI 0.06–0.67). Women who experienced side effects to SP (OR 0.18, CI 0.03–0.90) or had low malaria knowledge (OR 0.78, 95% CI 0.11–5.43) were less likely to receive IPTp by directly observed therapy. Ineffective delivery of IPTp reduced its potential impact by 231 LBW cases averted (95% CI 64–359) per 10,000 pregnant women.

Conclusion

IPTp presents greater challenges to deliver through ANC than ITNs in this setting. The reduction in public health impact on LBW resulting from ineffective delivery of IPTp is estimated to be substantial. Urgent efforts are required to improve service delivery of this important intervention.     

Characteristics and Outcomes among Older HIV-Positive Adults Enrolled in HIV Programs in Four Sub-Saharan African Countries

Background

Limited information exists on adults ≥50 years receiving HIV care in sub-Saharan Africa.

Methodology

Using routinely-collected longitudinal patient-level data among 391,111 adults ≥15 years enrolling in HIV care from January 2005–December 2010 and 184,689 initiating ART, we compared characteristics and outcomes between older (≥50 years) and younger adults at 199 clinics in Kenya, Mozambique, Rwanda, and Tanzania. We calculated proportions over time of newly enrolled and active adults receiving HIV care and initiating ART who were ≥50 years; cumulative incidence of loss to follow-up (LTF) and recorded death one year after enrollment and ART initiation, and CD4+ response following ART initiation.

Findings

From 2005–2010, the percentage of adults ≥50 years newly enrolled in HIV care remained stable at 10%, while the percentage of adults ≥50 years newly initiating ART (10% [2005]-12% [2010]), active in follow-up (10% [2005]-14% (2010]), and active on ART (10% [2005]-16% [2010]) significantly increased. One year after enrollment, older patients had significantly lower incidence of LTF (33.1% vs. 32.6%[40–49 years], 40.5%[25–39 years], and 56.3%[15–24 years]; p-value<0.0001), but significantly higher incidence of recorded death (6.0% vs. 5.0% [40–49 years], 4.1% [25–39 years], and 2.8% [15–24 years]; p-valve<0.0001). LTF was lower after vs. before ART initiation for all ages, with older adults experiencing less LTF than younger adults. Among 85,763 ART patients with baseline and follow-up CD4+ counts, adjusted average 12-month CD4+ response for older adults was 20.6 cells/mm³ lower than for adults 25–39 years of age (95% CI: 17.1–24.1).

Conclusions

The proportion of patients who are ≥50 years has increased over time and been driven by aging of the existing patient population. Older patients experienced less LTF, higher recorded mortality and less robust CD4+ response after ART initiation. Increased programmatic attention on older adults receiving HIV care in sub-Saharan Africa is warranted.     

Community-Based Evaluation of PMTCT Uptake in Nyanza Province,Kenya

Introduction

Facility-based assessments of prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) programs may overestimate population coverage. There are few community-based studies that evaluate PMTCT coverage and uptake.

Methods

During 2011, a cross-sectional community survey among women who gave birth in the prior year was performed using the KEMRI-CDC Health and Demographic Surveillance System in Western Kenya. A random sample (n = 405) and a sample of women known to be HIV-positive through previous home-based testing (n = 247) were enrolled. Rates and correlates of uptake of antenatal care (ANC), HIV-testing, and antiretrovirals (ARVs) were determined.

Results

Among 405 women in the random sample, 379 (94%) reported accessing ANC, most of whom (87%) were HIV tested. Uptake of HIV testing was associated with employment, higher socioeconomic status, and partner HIV testing. Among 247 known HIV-positive women, 173 (70%) self-disclosed their HIV status. Among 216 self-reported HIV-positive women (including 43 from the random sample), 82% took PMTCT ARVs, with 54% completing the full antenatal, peripartum, and postpartum course. Maternal ARV use was associated with more ANC visits and having an HIV tested partner. ARV use during delivery was lowest (62%) and associated with facility delivery. Eighty percent of HIV infected women reported having their infant HIV tested, 11% of whom reported their child was HIV infected, 76% uninfected, 6% declined to say, 7% did not recall; 79% of infected children were reportedly receiving HIV care and treatment.

Conclusions

Community-based assessments provide data that complements clinic-based PMTCT evaluations. In this survey, antenatal HIV test uptake was high; most HIV infected women received ARVs, though many women did not self-disclose HIV status to field team. Community-driven strategies that encourage early ANC, partner involvement, and skilled delivery, and provide PMTCT education, may facilitate further reductions in vertical transmission.     

Drug Users in Amsterdam: Are They Still at Risk for HIV?

Background and Aims

To examine whether drug users (DU) in the Amsterdam Cohort Study (ACS) are still at risk for HIV, we studied trends in HIV incidence and injecting and sexual risk behaviour from 1986 to 2011.

Methods

The ACS is an open, prospective cohort study on HIV. Calendar time trends in HIV incidence were modelled using Poisson regression. Trends in risk behaviour were modelled via generalized estimating equations. In 2010, a screening for STI (chlamydia, gonorrhoea and syphilis) was performed. Determinants of unprotected sex were studied using logistic regression analysis.

Results

The HIV incidence among 1298 participants of the ACS with a total follow-up of 12,921 person-years (PY) declined from 6.0/100 PY (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.2–11.1) in 1986 to less than 1/100 PY from 1997 onwards. Both injection and sexual risk behaviour declined significantly over time. Out of 197 participants screened for STI in 2010–2011, median age 49 years (IQR 43–59), only 5 (2.5%) were diagnosed with an STI. In multivariable analysis, having a steady partner (aOR 4.1, 95% CI 1.6–10.5) was associated with unprotected sex. HIV-infected participants were less likely to report unprotected sex (aOR 0.07, 95% CI 0.02–0.37).

Conclusions

HIV incidence and injection risk behaviour declined from 1986 onwards. STI prevalence is low; unprotected sex is associated with steady partners and is less common among HIV-infected participants. These findings indicate a low transmission risk of HIV and STI, which suggests that DU do not play a significant role in the current spread of HIV in Amsterdam.     

Development of Methods for Cross-Sectional HIV Incidence Estimation in a Large,Community Randomized Trial

Background

Accurate methods of HIV incidence determination are critically needed to monitor the epidemic and determine the population level impact of prevention trials. One such trial, Project Accept, a Phase III, community-randomized trial, evaluated the impact of enhanced, community-based voluntary counseling and testing on population-level HIV incidence. The primary endpoint of the trial was based on a single, cross-sectional, post-intervention HIV incidence assessment.

Methods and Findings

Test performance of HIV incidence determination was evaluated for 403 multi-assay algorithms [MAAs] that included the BED capture immunoassay [BED-CEIA] alone, an avidity assay alone, and combinations of these assays at different cutoff values with and without CD4 and viral load testing on samples from seven African cohorts (5,325 samples from 3,436 individuals with known duration of HIV infection [1 month to >10 years]). The mean window period (average time individuals appear positive for a given algorithm) and performance in estimating an incidence estimate (in terms of bias and variance) of these MAAs were evaluated in three simulated epidemic scenarios (stable, emerging and waning). The power of different test methods to detect a 35% reduction in incidence in the matched communities of Project Accept was also assessed. A MAA was identified that included BED-CEIA, the avidity assay, CD4 cell count, and viral load that had a window period of 259 days, accurately estimated HIV incidence in all three epidemic settings and provided sufficient power to detect an intervention effect in Project Accept.

Conclusions

In a Southern African setting, HIV incidence estimates and intervention effects can be accurately estimated from cross-sectional surveys using a MAA. The improved accuracy in cross-sectional incidence testing that a MAA provides is a powerful tool for HIV surveillance and program evaluation.     

Estimated HIV incidence in the United States, 2006-2009

Background

The estimated number of new HIV infections in the United States reflects the leading edge of the epidemic. Previously, CDC estimated HIV incidence in the United States in 2006 as 56,300 (95% CI: 48,200–64,500). We updated the 2006 estimate and calculated incidence for 2007–2009 using improved methodology.

Methodology

We estimated incidence using incidence surveillance data from 16 states and 2 cities and a modification of our previously described stratified extrapolation method based on a sample survey approach with multiple imputation, stratification, and extrapolation to account for missing data and heterogeneity of HIV testing behavior among population groups.

Principal Findings

Estimated HIV incidence among persons aged 13 years and older was 48,600 (95% CI: 42,400–54,700) in 2006, 56,000 (95% CI: 49,100–62,900) in 2007, 47,800 (95% CI: 41,800–53,800) in 2008 and 48,100 (95% CI: 42,200–54,000) in 2009. From 2006 to 2009 incidence did not change significantly overall or among specific race/ethnicity or risk groups. However, there was a 21% (95% CI:1.9%–39.8%; p = 0.017) increase in incidence for people aged 13–29 years, driven by a 34% (95% CI: 8.4%–60.4%) increase in young men who have sex with men (MSM). There was a 48% increase among young black/African American MSM (12.3%–83.0%; p<0.001). Among people aged 13–29, only MSM experienced significant increases in incidence, and among 13–29 year-old MSM, incidence increased significantly among young, black/African American MSM. In 2009, MSM accounted for 61% of new infections, heterosexual contact 27%, injection drug use (IDU) 9%, and MSM/IDU 3%.

Conclusions/Significance

Overall, HIV incidence in the United States was relatively stable 2006–2009; however, among young MSM, particularly black/African American MSM, incidence increased. HIV continues to be a major public health burden, disproportionately affecting several populations in the United States, especially MSM and racial and ethnic minorities. Expanded, improved, and targeted prevention is necessary to reduce HIV incidence.     

Prevalence and incidence of HIV in a rural community-based HIV vaccine preparedness cohort in Masaka, Uganda

Background

Local HIV epidemiology data are critical in determining the suitability of a population for HIV vaccine efficacy trials. The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence and incidence of, and determine risk factors for HIV transmission in a rural community-based HIV vaccine preparedness cohort in Masaka, Uganda.

Methods

Between February and July 2004, we conducted a house-to-house HIV sero-prevalence survey among consenting individuals aged 18–60 years. Participants were interviewed, counseled and asked to provide blood for HIV testing. We then enrolled the HIV uninfected participants in a 2-year HIV sero-incidence study. Medical evaluations, HIV counseling and testing, and sample collection for laboratory analysis were done quarterly. Sexual risk behaviour data was collected every 6 months.

Results

The HIV point prevalence was 11.2%, and was higher among women than men (12.9% vs. 8.6%, P = 0.007). Risk factors associated with prevalent HIV infection for men were age <25 years (aOR = 0.05, 95% CI 0.01–0.35) and reported genital ulcer disease in the past year (aOR = 2.17, 95% CI 1.23–3.83). Among women, being unmarried (aOR = 2.59, 95% CI 1.75–3.83) and reported genital ulcer disease in the past year (aOR = 2.40, 95% CI 1.64–3.51) were associated with prevalent HIV infection. Twenty-one seroconversions were recorded over 2025.8 person-years, an annual HIV incidence of 1.04% (95% CI: 0.68–1.59). The only significant risk factor for incident HIV infection was being unmarried (aRR = 3.44, 95% CI 1.43–8.28). Cohort retention after 2 years was 87%.

Conclusions

We found a high prevalence but low incidence of HIV in this cohort. HIV vaccine efficacy trials in this population may not be feasible due to the large sample sizes that would be required. HIV vaccine preparatory efforts in this setting should include identification of higher risk populations.     

Controlling HIV Epidemics among Injection Drug Users: Eight Years of Cross-Border HIV Prevention Interventions in Vietnam and China

Introduction

HIV in Vietnam and Southern China is driven by injection drug use. We have implemented HIV prevention interventions for IDUs since 2002–2003 in Lang Son and Ha Giang Provinces, Vietnam and Ning Ming County (Guangxi), China.

Methods

Interventions provide peer education and needle/syringe distribution. Evaluation employed serial cross-sectional surveys of IDUs 26 waves from 2002 to 2011, including interviews and HIV testing. Outcomes were HIV risk behaviors, HIV prevalence and incidence. HIV incidence estimation used two methods: 1) among new injectors from prevalence data; and 2) a capture enzyme immunoassay (BED testing) on all HIV+ samples.

Results

We found significant declines in drug-related risk behaviors and sharp reductions in HIV prevalence among IDUs (Lang Son from 46% to 23% [p<0.001], Ning Ming: from 17% to 11% [p = 0.003], and Ha Giang: from 51% to 18% [p<0.001]), reductions not experienced in other provinces without such interventions. There were significant declines in HIV incidence to low levels among new injectors through 36–48 months, then some rebound, particularly in Ning Ming, but BED-based estimates revealed significant reductions in incidence through 96 months.

Discussion

This is one of the longest studies of HIV prevention among IDUs in Asia. The rebound in incidence among new injectors may reflect sexual transmission. BED-based estimates may overstate incidence (because of false-recent results in patients with long-term infection or on ARV treatment) but adjustment for false-recent results and survey responses on duration of infection generally confirm BED-based incidence trends. Combined trends from the two estimation methods show sharp declines in incidence to low levels. The significant downward trends in all primary outcome measures indicate that the Cross-Border interventions played an important role in bringing HIV epidemics among IDUs under control. The Cross-Border project offers a model of HIV prevention for IDUs that should be considered for large-scale replication.     

HIV Status Awareness,Partnership Dissolution and HIV Transmission in Generalized Epidemics

Objectives

HIV status aware couples with at least one HIV positive partner are characterized by high separation and divorce rates. This phenomenon is often described as a corollary of couples HIV Testing and Counseling (HTC) that ought to be minimized. In this contribution, we demonstrate the implications of partnership dissolution in serodiscordant couples for the propagation of HIV.

Methods

We develop a compartmental model to study epidemic outcomes of elevated partnership dissolution rates in serodiscordant couples and parameterize it with estimates from population-based data (Rakai, Uganda).

Results

Via its effect on partnership dissolution, every percentage point increase in HIV status awareness reduces HIV incidence in monogamous populations by 0.27 percent for women and 0.63 percent for men. These effects are even larger when the assumption of monogamy can be relaxed, but are moderated by other behavior changes (e.g., increased condom use) in HIV status aware serodiscordant partnerships. When these behavior changes are taken into account, each percentage point increase in HIV status awareness reduces HIV incidence by 0.13 and 0.32 percent for women and men, respectively (assuming monogamy). The partnership dissolution effect exists because it decreases the fraction of serodiscordant couples in the population and prolongs the time that individuals spend outside partnerships.

Conclusion

Our model predicts that elevated partnership dissolution rates in HIV status aware serodiscordant couples reduce the spread of HIV. As a consequence, the full impact of couples HTC for HIV prevention is probably larger than recognized to date. Particularly high partnership dissolution rates in female positive serodiscordant couples contribute to the gender imbalance in HIV infections.     

Correlates of HIV Acquisition in a Cohort of Black Men Who Have Sex with Men in the United States: HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 061

Background

Black men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States (US) are affected by HIV at disproportionate rates compared to MSM of other race/ethnicities. Current HIV incidence estimates in this group are needed to appropriately target prevention efforts.

Methods

From July 2009 to October 2010, Black MSM reporting unprotected anal intercourse with a man in the past six months were enrolled and followed for one year in six US cities for a feasibility study of a multi-component intervention to reduce HIV infection. HIV incidence based on HIV seroconversion was calculated as number of events/100 person-years. Multivariate proportional hazards modeling with time-dependent covariates was used to identify correlates of HIV acquisition.

Results

Of 1,553 Black MSM enrolled, 1,164 were HIV-uninfected at baseline and included in follow-up. Overall annual HIV incidence was 3.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.0, 4.4%) and 5.9% among men ≤30 years old (95% CI: 3.6, 9.1%). Men ≤30 years old reported significantly higher levels of sexual risk and were more likely to have a sexually transmitted infection diagnosed during follow-up. Younger men also were more likely to not have a usual place for health care, not have visited a health care provider recently, and to have unmet health care needs. In multivariate analysis, age ≤30 years (hazard ratio (HR): 3.4; 95% CI: 1.4, 8.3) and unprotected receptive anal intercourse with HIV-positive or unknown status partners (HR: 4.1; 95% CI: 1.9, 9.1) were significantly associated with HIV acquisition.

Conclusion

In the largest cohort of prospectively-followed Black MSM in the US, HIV incidence was high, particularly among young men. Targeted, tailored and culturally appropriate HIV prevention strategies incorporating behavioral, social and biomedical based interventions are urgently needed to lower these rates.     

Factors associated with HIV infection in married or cohabitating couples in Kenya: results from a nationally representative study

Background

In order to inform prevention programming, we analyzed HIV discordance and concordance within couples in the Kenya AIDS Indicator Survey (KAIS) 2007.

Methods

KAIS was a nationally representative population-based sero-survey that examined demographic and behavioral indicators and serologic testing for HIV, HSV-2, syphilis, and CD4 cell counts in 15,853 consenting adults aged 15–64 years. We analyzed interview and blood testing data at the sexual partnership level from married or cohabitating couples. Multivariable regression models were used to identify factors independently associated with HIV discordant and concordant status.

Results

Of 3256 couples identified in the survey, 2748 (84.4%) had interview and blood testing data. Overall, 3.8% of couples were concordantly infected with HIV, and in 5.8% one partner was infected, translating to 338,000 discordant couples in Kenya. In 83.6% of HIV-infected Kenyans living in married or cohabitating couples neither partner knew their HIV status. Factors independently associated with HIV-discordance included young age in women (AOR 1.5, 95% CI: 1.2–1.8; p<0.0001), increasing number of lifetime sexual partners in women (AOR 1.5, 95% CI: 1.3–1.8; p<0.0001), HSV-2 infection in either or both partners (AOR 4.1, 95% CI: 2.3–7.2; p<0.0001), and lack of male circumcision (AOR 1.6, 95% CI: 1.0–2.5; p = 0.032). Independent factors for HIV-concordance included HSV-2 infection in both partners (AOR 6.5, 95% CI: 2.3–18.7; p = 0.001) and lack of male circumcision (AOR 1.8, 95% CI: 1.0–3.3; p = 0.043).

Conclusions

Couple prevention interventions should begin early in relationships and include mutual knowledge of HIV status, reduction of outside sexual partners, and promotion of male circumcision among HIV-uninfected men. Mechanisms for effective prevention or suppression of HSV-2 infection are also needed.