Arctic fox Vulpes lagopus population structure: circumpolar patterns and processes

Movement is a prominent process shaping genetic population structure. In many northern mammal species, population structure is formed by geographic distance, geographical barriers and various ecological factors that influence movement over the landscape. The Arctic fox Vulpes lagopus is a highly mobile, opportunistic carnivore of the Arctic that occurs in two main ecotypes with different ecological adaptations. We assembled microsatellite data in 7 loci for 1834 Arctic foxes sampled across their entire distribution to describe the circumpolar population structure and test the impact of (1) geographic distance, (2) geographical barriers and (3) ecotype designation on the population structure. Both Structure and Geneland demonstrated distinctiveness of Iceland and Scandinavia whereas low differentiation was observed between North America–northern Greenland, Svalbard and Siberia. Genetic differentiation was significantly correlated to presence of sea ice on a global scale, but not to geographical distance or ecotype designation. However, among areas connected by sea ice, we recorded a pattern of isolation by distance. The maximum likelihood approach in Migrate suggested that connectivity across North America–northern Greenland and Svalbard was particularly high. Our results demonstrate the importance of sea ice for maintaining connectivity between Arctic fox populations and we therefore predict that climate change will increase genetic divergence among populations in the future.     

Spatial structure of lemming populations (Dicrostonyx groenlandicus) fluctuating in density

The pattern and scale of the genetic structure of populations provides valuable information for the understanding of the spatial ecology of populations, including the spatial aspects of density fluctuations. In the present paper, the genetic structure of periodically fluctuating lemmings (Dicrostonyx groenlandicus) in the Canadian Arctic was analysed using mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region sequences and four nuclear microsatellite loci. Low genetic variability was found in mtDNA, while microsatellite loci were highly variable in all localities, including localities on isolated small islands. For both genetic markers the genetic differentiation was clear among geographical regions but weaker among localities within regions. Such a pattern implies gene flow within regions. Based on theoretical calculations and population census data from a snap-trapping survey, we argue that the observed genetic variability on small islands and the low level of differentiation among these islands cannot be explained without invoking long distance dispersal of lemmings over the sea ice. Such dispersal is unlikely to occur only during population density peaks.     

Sea ice loss increases genetic isolation in a high Arctic ungulate metapopulation

Sea ice loss may have dramatic consequences for population connectivity, extinction–colonization dynamics, and even the persistence of Arctic species subject to climate change. This is of particular concern in face of additional anthropogenic stressors, such as overexploitation. In this study, we assess the population‐genetic implications of diminishing sea ice cover in the endemic, high Arctic Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) by analyzing the interactive effects of landscape barriers and reintroductions (following harvest‐induced extirpations) on their metapopulation genetic structure. We genotyped 411 wild reindeer from 25 sampling sites throughout the entire subspecies' range at 19 microsatellite loci. Bayesian clustering analysis showed a genetic structure composed of eight populations, of which two were admixed. Overall population genetic differentiation was high (mean F_ST = 0.21). Genetic diversity was low (allelic richness [AR] = 2.07–2.58; observed heterozygosity = 0.23–0.43) and declined toward the outer distribution range, where populations showed significant levels of inbreeding. Coalescent estimates of effective population sizes and migration rates revealed strong evolutionary source–sink dynamics with the central population as the main source. The population genetic structure was best explained by a landscape genetics model combining strong isolation by glaciers and open water, and high connectivity by dispersal across winter sea ice. However, the observed patterns of natural isolation were strongly modified by the signature of past harvest‐induced extirpations, subsequent reintroductions, and recent lack of sea ice. These results suggest that past and current anthropogenic drivers of metapopulation dynamics may have interactive effects on large‐scale ecological and evolutionary processes. Continued loss of sea ice as a dispersal corridor within and between island systems is expected to increase the genetic isolation of populations, and thus threaten the evolutionary potential and persistence of Arctic wildlife.     

The role of sea ice for vascular plant dispersal in the Arctic

Sea ice has been suggested to be an important factor for dispersal of vascular plants in the Arctic. To assess its role for postglacial colonization in the North Atlantic region, we compiled data on the first Late Glacial to Holocene occurrence of vascular plant species in East Greenland, Iceland, the Faroe Islands and Svalbard. For each record, we reconstructed likely past dispersal events using data on species distributions and genetics. We compared these data to sea-ice reconstructions to evaluate the potential role of sea ice in these past colonization events and finally evaluated these results using a compilation of driftwood records as an independent source of evidence that sea ice can disperse biological material. Our results show that sea ice was, in general, more prevalent along the most likely dispersal routes at times of assumed first colonization than along other possible routes. Also, driftwood is frequently dispersed in regions that have sea ice today. Thus, sea ice may act as an important dispersal agent. Melting sea ice may hamper future dispersal of Arctic plants and thereby cause more genetic differentiation. It may also limit the northwards expansion of competing boreal species, and hence favour the persistence of Arctic species.     

Pulses of movement across the sea ice: population connectivity and temporal genetic structure in the arctic fox

Lemmings are involved in several important functions in the Arctic ecosystem. The Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) can be divided into two discrete ecotypes: “lemming foxes” and “coastal foxes”. Crashes in lemming abundance can result in pulses of “lemming fox” movement across the Arctic sea ice and immigration into coastal habitats in search for food. These pulses can influence the genetic structure of the receiving population. We have tested the impact of immigration on the genetic structure of the “coastal fox” population in Svalbard by recording microsatellite variation in seven loci for 162 Arctic foxes sampled during the summer and winter over a 5-year period. Genetic heterogeneity and temporal genetic shifts, as inferred by STRUCTURE simulations and deviations from Hardy–Weinberg proportions, respectively, were recorded. Maximum likelihood estimates of movement as well as STRUCTURE simulations suggested that both immigration and genetic mixture are higher in Svalbard than in the neighbouring “lemming fox” populations. The STRUCTURE simulations and AMOVA revealed there are differences in genetic composition of the population between summer and winter seasons, indicating that immigrants are not present in the reproductive portion of the Svalbard population. Based on these results, we conclude that Arctic fox population structure varies with time and is influenced by immigration from neighbouring populations. The lemming cycle is likely an important factor shaping Arctic fox movement across sea ice and the subsequent population genetic structure, but is also likely to influence local adaptation to the coastal habitat and the prevalence of diseases.     

Prioritization of landscape connectivity for the conservation of Peary caribou

Adequate connectivity between discontinuous habitat patches is crucial for the persistence of metapopulations across space and time. Loss of landscape connectivity is often a direct result of fragmentation caused by human activities but also can be caused indirectly through anthropogenic climate change. Peary caribou (Rangifer tarandus pearyi) are widely dispersed across the islands of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and rely on sea ice to move seasonally between island habitats throughout their range. Seasonal connectivity provided by sea ice is necessary to maintain genetic diversity and to facilitate dispersal and recolonization of areas from which caribou have been extirpated. We used least‐cost path analysis and circuit theory to model connectivity across Peary caribou range, and future climate projections to investigate how this connectivity might be affected by a warming climate. Further, we used measures of current flow centrality to estimate the role of High Arctic islands in maintaining connectivity between Peary caribou populations and to identify and prioritize those islands and linkages most important for conservation. Our results suggest that the Bathurst Island complex plays a critical role in facilitating connectivity between Peary caribou populations. Large islands, including Banks, Victoria, and Ellesmere have limited roles in connecting Peary caribou. Without rigorous greenhouse gas emission reductions our projections indicate that by 2100 all connectivity between the more southern Peary caribou populations will be lost for important spring and early‐winter movement periods. Continued connectivity across the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, and possibly Peary caribou persistence, ultimately hinges on global commitments to limit climate change. Our research highlights priority areas where, in addition to emission reductions, conservation efforts to maintain connectivity would be most effective.     

Mountain hare populations on islands: effects of predation by red fox

Summary On islands off the west coast of Sweden the density of mountain hares (Lepus timidus L.) is very high. One of the main predators on hares, the red fox (Vulpes vulpes L.), is only present during short periods. Data on hare density and predation by red fox and eagle owl (Bubo bubo (L.)) has been analyzed from five islands over several years. Winter mortality in years with low predation pressure was independent of hare density. But when red fox or eagle owl were present on islands (i.e., high predation pressure) winter mortality became density dependent. Thus, at low density, winter mortality did not increase through red fox predation. But at densities up to two hares/ha, predation pressure was increasing and could be limiting for these populations. At still higher hare density predation pressure became less intensive. The functional response for foxes preying on hares showed a type II or a sigmoid type III response pattern. In normal summers, the population increase due to reproduction was at least two-fold. When a fox was present there was instead a sharp decrease in hare numbers. Fox predation had a stronger effect in summer than in winter. By switching between islands and mainland areas from winter to summer, a fox can stabilize fluctuations in hare numbers on the islands. This is dependent on how often the ice permits a fox to reach an island and the lack of numerical response by predators.     

Historical and ecological determinants of genetic structure in arctic canids

Wolves (Canis lupus) and arctic foxes (Alopex lagopus) are the only canid species found throughout the mainland tundra and arctic islands of North America. Contrasting evolutionary histories, and the contemporary ecology of each species, have combined to produce their divergent population genetic characteristics. Arctic foxes are more variable than wolves, and both island and mainland fox populations possess similarly high microsatellite variation. These differences result from larger effective population sizes in arctic foxes, and the fact that, unlike wolves, foxes were not isolated in discrete refugia during the Pleistocene. Despite the large physical distances and distinct ecotypes represented, a single, panmictic population of arctic foxes was found which spans the Svalbard Archipelago and the North American range of the species. This pattern likely reflects both the absence of historical population bottlenecks and current, high levels of gene flow following frequent long-distance foraging movements. In contrast, genetic structure in wolves correlates strongly to transitions in habitat type, and is probably determined by natal habitat-biased dispersal. Nonrandom dispersal may be cued by relative levels of vegetation cover between tundra and forest habitats, but especially by wolf prey specialization on ungulate species of familiar type and behaviour (sedentary or migratory). Results presented here suggest that, through its influence on sea ice, vegetation, prey dynamics and distribution, continued arctic climate change may have effects as dramatic as those of the Pleistocene on the genetic structure of arctic canid species.     

Gene flow on ice: the role of sea ice and whaling in shaping Holarctic genetic diversity and population differentiation in bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus)

Sea ice is believed to be a major factor shaping gene flow for polar marine organisms, but it remains unclear to what extent it represents a true barrier to dispersal for arctic cetaceans. Bowhead whales are highly adapted to polar sea ice and were targeted by commercial whalers throughout Arctic and subarctic seas for at least four centuries, resulting in severe reductions in most areas. Both changing ice conditions and reductions due to whaling may have affected geographic distribution and genetic diversity throughout their range, but little is known about range‐wide genetic structure or whether it differed in the past. This study represents the first examination of genetic diversity and differentiation across all five putative stocks, including Baffin Bay‐Davis Strait, Hudson Bay‐Foxe Basin, Bering‐Beaufort‐Chukchi, Okhotsk, and Spitsbergen. We also utilized ancient specimens from Prince Regent Inlet (PRI) in the Canadian Arctic and compared them with modern stocks. Results from analysis of molecular variance and demographic simulations are consistent with recent and high gene flow between Atlantic and Pacific stocks in the recent past. Significant genetic differences between ancient and modern populations suggest PRI harbored unique maternal lineages in the past that have been recently lost, possibly due to loss of habitat during the Little Ice Age and/or whaling. Unexpectedly, samples from this location show a closer genetic relationship with modern Pacific stocks than Atlantic, supporting high gene flow between the central Canadian Arctic and Beaufort Sea over the past millennium despite extremely heavy ice cover over much of this period.     

Movement tactics of a mobile predator in a meta‐ecosystem with fluctuating resources: the arctic fox in the High Arctic

Animal movement is a fundamental process shaping ecosystems at multiple levels, from the fate of individuals to global patterns of biodiversity. The spatio‐temporal dynamic of food resources is a major driver of animal movement and generates patterns ranging from range residency to migration and nomadism. Arctic tundra predators face a strongly fluctuating environment marked by cyclic microtine populations, high seasonality, and the potential availability of sea ice, which gives access to marine resources in winter. This type of relatively poor and highly variable environment can promote long‐distance movements and resource tracking in mobile species. Here, we investigated the winter movements of the arctic fox, a major tundra predator often described as a seasonal migrant or nomad. We used six years of Argos satellite telemetry data collected on 66 adults from Bylot Island (Nunavut, Canada) tracked during the sea ice period. We hypothesized that long‐distance movements would be influenced by spatio‐temporal changes in resource availability and individual characteristics. Despite strong annual and seasonal changes in resource abundance and distribution, we found that a majority of individuals remained resident, especially those located in an area characterized by highly predictable pulse resources (goose nesting colony) and abundant cached food items (eggs). Foxes compensated terrestrial food shortage by commuting to the sea ice rather than using long‐distance tracking or moving completely onto the sea ice for winter. Individual characteristics also influenced movement patterns: age positively influenced the propensity to engage in nomadism, suggesting older foxes may be driven out of their territories. Our results show how these mammalian predators can adjust their movement patterns to favor range residency despite strong spatio‐temporal fluctuations in food resources. Understanding the movement responses of predators to prey dynamics helps identifying the scales at which they work, which is a critical aspect of the functioning and connectivity among meta‐ecosystems.     

Population genetic structure and evolutionary history of North Atlantic beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) from West Greenland, Svalbard and the White Sea

Population structure in many Arctic marine mammal species reflects a dynamic interplay between physical isolating mechanisms and the extent to which dispersal opportunities are met. We examined variation within mtDNA and eight microsatellite markers to investigate population structure and demographic history in beluga whales in the North Atlantic. Genetic heterogeneity was observed between Svalbard and West Greenland that reveals limited gene flow over ecological time scales. Differentiation was also recorded between Atlantic belugas and two previously studied populations in the North Pacific, the Beaufort Sea and Gulf of Alaska. However, Bayesian cluster analysis of the nDNA data identified two population clusters that did not correspond to the respective ocean basins, as predicted, but to: (1) Arctic (Svalbard–White Sea–Greenland–Beaufort Sea) and (2) Subarctic (Gulf of Alaska) regions. Similarly, the deepest phylogeographic signal was between the Arctic populations and the Gulf of Alaska. Fitting an isolation-with-migration model yielded genetic abundance estimates that match census estimates and revealed that Svalbard and the Beaufort Sea likely diverged 7,600–35,400 years ago but have experienced recurrent periods with gene flow since then, most likely via the Russian Arctic during subsequent warm periods. Considering current projections of continued sea ice losses in the Arctic, this study identified likely routes of future contact among extant beluga populations, and other mobile marine species, which have implications for genetic introgression, health, ecology and behavior.     

Paleodistribution modeling suggests glacial refugia in Scandinavia and out‐of‐Tibet range expansion of the Arctic fox

Quaternary glacial cycles have shaped the geographic distributions and evolution of numerous species in the Arctic. Ancient DNA suggests that the Arctic fox went extinct in Europe at the end of the Pleistocene and that Scandinavia was subsequently recolonized from Siberia, indicating inability to track its habitat through space as climate changed. Using ecological niche modeling, we found that climatically suitable conditions for Arctic fox were found in Scandinavia both during the last glacial maximum (LGM) and the mid‐Holocene. Our results are supported by fossil occurrences from the last glacial. Furthermore, the model projection for the LGM, validated with fossil records, suggested an approximate distance of 2000 km between suitable Arctic conditions and the Tibetan Plateau well within the dispersal distance of the species, supporting the recently proposed hypothesis of range expansion from an origin on the Tibetan Plateau to the rest of Eurasia. The fact that the Arctic fox disappeared from Scandinavia despite suitable conditions suggests that extant populations may be more sensitive to climate change than previously thought.     

Population structure,dispersal and colonization history of the garden bumblebee <Emphasis Type="Italic">Bombus hortorum</Emphasis> in the Western Isles of Scotland

New methods of analysing genetic data provide powerful tools for quantifying dispersal patterns and reconstructing population histories. Here we examine the population structure of the bumblebee Bombus hortorum in a model island system, the Western Isles of Scotland, using microsatellite markers. Following declines in other species, B. hortorum is the only remaining long-tongued bumblebee species found in much of Europe, and thus it is of particular ecological importance. Our data suggest that populations of B. hortorum in western Scotland exist as distinct genetic clusters occupying groups of nearby islands. Population structuring was higher than for other bumblebee species which have previously been studied in this same island group (F_st = 0.16). Populations showed significant isolation by distance. This relationship was greatly improved by using circuit theory to allow dispersal rates to differ over different landscape features; as we would predict, sea appears to provide far higher resistance to dispersal than land. Incorporating bathymetry data improved the fit of the model further; populations separated by shallow seas are more genetically similar than those separated by deeper seas. We argue that this probably reflects events following the last ice age when the islands were first colonized by this bee species (8,500–5,000 ybp), when the sea levels were lower and islands separated by shallow channels would have been joined. In the absence of significant gene flow these genetic clusters appear to have since diverged over the following 5,000 years and arguably may now represent locally adapted races, some occurring on single islands.     

The influence of habitat structure on genetic differentiation in red fox populations in north-eastern Poland

The red fox (Vulpes vulpes) has the widest global distribution among terrestrial carnivore species, occupying most of the Northern Hemisphere in its native range. Because it carries diseases that can be transmitted to humans and domestic animals, it is important to gather information about their movements and dispersal in their natural habitat but it is difficult to do so at a broad scale with trapping and telemetry. In this study, we have described the genetic diversity and structure of red fox populations in six areas of north-eastern Poland, based on samples collected from 2002–2003. We tested 22 microsatellite loci isolated from the dog and the red fox genome to select a panel of nine polymorphic loci suitable for this study. Genetic differentiation between the six studied populations was low to moderate and analysis in Structure revealed a panmictic population in the region. Spatial autocorrelation among all individuals showed a pattern of decreasing relatedness with increasing distance and this was not significantly negative until 93 km, indicating a pattern of isolation-by-distance over a large area. However, there was no correlation between genetic distance and either Euclidean distance or least-cost path distance at the population level. There was a significant relationship between genetic distance and the proportion of large forests and water along the Euclidean distances. These types of habitats may influence dispersal paths taken by red foxes, which is useful information in terms of wildlife disease management.     

An avian terrestrial predator of the Arctic relies on the marine ecosystem during winter

Top predators of the arctic tundra are facing a long period of very low prey availability during winter and subsidies from other ecosystems such as the marine environment may help to support their populations. Satellite tracking of snowy owls, a top predator of the tundra, revealed that most adult females breeding in the Canadian Arctic overwinter at high latitudes in the eastern Arctic and spend several weeks (up to 101 d) on the sea‐ice between December and April. Analysis of high‐resolution satellite images of sea‐ice indicated that owls were primarily gathering around open water patches in the ice, which are commonly used by wintering seabirds, a potential prey. Such extensive use of sea‐ice by a tundra predator considered a small mammal specialist was unexpected, and suggests that marine resources subsidize snowy owl populations in winter. As sea‐ice regimes in winter are expected to change over the next decades due to climate warming, this may affect the wintering strategy of this top predator and ultimately the functioning of the tundra ecosystem.     

Decadal shifts in autumn migration timing by Pacific Arctic beluga whales are related to delayed annual sea ice formation

Migrations are often influenced by seasonal environmental gradients that are increasingly being altered by climate change. The consequences of rapid changes in Arctic sea ice have the potential to affect migrations of a number of marine species whose timing is temporally matched to seasonal sea ice cover. This topic has not been investigated for Pacific Arctic beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) that follow matrilineally maintained autumn migrations in the waters around Alaska and Russia. For the sympatric Eastern Chukchi Sea (‘Chukchi’) and Eastern Beaufort Sea (‘Beaufort’) beluga populations, we examined changes in autumn migration timing as related to delayed regional sea ice freeze‐up since the 1990s, using two independent data sources (satellite telemetry data and passive acoustics) for both populations. We compared dates of migration between ‘early’ (1993–2002) and ‘late’ (2004–2012) tagging periods. During the late tagging period, Chukchi belugas had significantly delayed migrations (by 2 to >4 weeks, depending on location) from the Beaufort and Chukchi seas. Spatial analyses also revealed that departure from Beaufort Sea foraging regions by Chukchi whales was postponed in the late period. Chukchi beluga autumn migration timing occurred significantly later as regional sea ice freeze‐up timing became later in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and Bering seas. In contrast, Beaufort belugas did not shift migration timing between periods, nor was migration timing related to freeze‐up timing, other than for southward migration at the Bering Strait. Passive acoustic data from 2008 to 2014 provided independent and supplementary support for delayed migration from the Beaufort Sea (4 day yr^?1) by Chukchi belugas. Here, we report the first phenological study examining beluga whale migrations within the context of their rapidly transforming Pacific Arctic ecosystem, suggesting flexible responses that may enable their persistence yet also complicate predictions of how belugas may fare in the future.     

Population structure in a critically endangered arctic fox population: does genetics matter?

The arctic fox (Alopex lagopus) in Scandinavia is classified as critically endangered after having gone through a severe decline in population size in the beginning of the 20th century, from which it has failed to recover despite more than 65 years of protection. Arctic foxes have a high dispersal rate and often disperse over long distances, suggesting that there was probably little population differentiation within Scandinavia prior to the bottleneck. It is, however, possible that the recent decline in population size has led to a decrease in dispersal and an increase in population fragmentation. To examine this, we used 10 microsatellite loci to analyse genetic variation in 150 arctic foxes from Scandinavia and Russia. The results showed that the arctic fox in Scandinavia presently is subdivided into four populations, and that the Kola Peninsula and northwest Russia together form a large fifth population. Current dispersal between the populations seemed to be very low, but genetic variation within them was relatively high. This and the relative F(ST) values among the populations are consistent with a model of recent fragmentation within Scandinavia. Since the amount of genetic variation is high within the populations, but the populations are small and isolated, demographic stochasticity seems to pose a higher threat to the populations' persistence than inbreeding depression and low genetic variation.     

Genetic structure of the Canarian palm tree (Phoenix canariensis) at the island scale: does the ‘island within islands’ concept apply to species with high colonisation ability?

• Oceanic islands are dynamic settings that often promote within‐island patterns of strong population differentiation. Species with high colonisation abilities, however, are less likely to be affected by genetic barriers, but island size may impact on species genetic structure regardless of dispersal ability.
• The aim of the present study was to identify the patterns and factors responsible for the structure of genetic diversity at the island scale in Phoenix canariensis, a palm species with high dispersal potential. To this end, we conducted extensive population sampling on the three Canary Islands where the species is more abundant and assessed patterns of genetic variation at eight microsatellite loci, considering different within‐island scales.
• Our analyses revealed significant genetic structure on each of the three islands analysed, but the patterns and level of structure differed greatly among islands. Thus, genetic differentiation fitted an isolation‐by‐distance pattern on islands with high population densities (La Gomera and Gran Canaria), but such a pattern was not found on Tenerife due to strong isolation between colonised areas. In addition, we found a positive correlation between population geographic isolation and fine‐scale genetic structure.
• This study highlights that island size is not necessarily a factor causing strong population differentiation on large islands, whereas high colonisation ability does not always promote genetic connectivity among neighbouring populations. The spatial distribution of populations (i.e. landscape occupancy) can thus be a more important driver of plant genetic structure than other island, or species′ life‐history attributes.

     

Demographic responses to climate change in a threatened Arctic species

The Arctic is undergoing rapid and accelerating change in response to global warming, altering biodiversity patterns, and ecosystem function across the region. For Arctic endemic species, our understanding of the consequences of such change remains limited. Spectacled eiders (Somateria fischeri), a large Arctic sea duck, use remote regions in the Bering Sea, Arctic Russia, and Alaska throughout the annual cycle making it difficult to conduct comprehensive surveys or demographic studies. Listed as Threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, understanding the species response to climate change is critical for effective conservation policy and planning. Here, we developed an integrated population model to describe spectacled eider population dynamics using capture–mark–recapture, breeding population survey, nest survey, and environmental data collected between 1992 and 2014. Our intent was to estimate abundance, population growth, and demographic rates, and quantify how changes in the environment influenced population dynamics. Abundance of spectacled eiders breeding in western Alaska has increased since listing in 1993 and responded more strongly to annual variation in first‐year survival than adult survival or productivity. We found both adult survival and nest success were highest in years following intermediate sea ice conditions during the wintering period, and both demographic rates declined when sea ice conditions were above or below average. In recent years, sea ice extent has reached new record lows and has remained below average throughout the winter for multiple years in a row. Sea ice persistence is expected to further decline in the Bering Sea. Our results indicate spectacled eiders may be vulnerable to climate change and the increasingly variable sea ice conditions throughout their wintering range with potentially deleterious effects on population dynamics. Importantly, we identified that different demographic rates responded similarly to changes in sea ice conditions, emphasizing the need for integrated analyses to understand population dynamics.