Gene flow and genetic drift in urban environments

Evidence is growing that human modification of landscapes has dramatically altered evolutionary processes. In urban population genetic studies, urbanization is typically predicted to act as a barrier that isolates populations of species, leading to increased genetic drift within populations and reduced gene flow between populations. However, urbanization may also facilitate dispersal among populations, leading to higher genetic diversity within, and lower differentiation between, urban populations. We reviewed the literature on nonadaptive urban evolution to evaluate the support for each of these urban fragmentation and facilitation models. In a review of the literature with supporting quantitative analyses of 167 published urban population genetics studies, we found a weak signature of reduced within‐population genetic diversity and no evidence of consistently increased between‐population genetic differentiation associated with urbanization. In addition, we found that urban landscape features act as barriers or conduits to gene flow, depending on the species and city in question. Thus, we speculate that dispersal ability of species and environmental heterogeneity between cities contributes to the variation exhibited in our results. However, >90% of published studies reviewed here showed an association of urbanization with genetic drift or gene flow, highlighting the strong impact of urbanization on nonadaptive evolution. It is clear that species biology and city heterogeneity obscure patterns of genetic drift and gene flow in a quantitative analysis. Thus, we suggest that future research makes comparisons of multiple cities and nonurban habitats, and takes into consideration species' natural history, environmental variation, spatial modelling and marker selection.     

Gene flow and effective population size in Lepanthes (Orchidaceae): a case for genetic drift

Genetic drift can play an important role in population differentiation, particularly when effective population sizes are small and gene flow is limited. Such conditions are suspected to be common in the species-rich Orchidaceae. We investigated the likelihood of genetic drift in natural populations of three endemic species of Lepanthes (Orchidaceae) from Puerto Rico. We estimated effective population size, Ne, using three ecologically based methods. Two of the three estimates were based on variance in reproductive potential and the third was based on coalescence time. All estimates of Ne were usually <40% of the standing population size, resulting in values of <20 individuals per population. Based on starch gel electrophoresis of isozymes, Nm estimates suggest restricted gene flow among populations in the range of one or less successful migrant per generation. Genetic differentiation among populations is expected under such conditions from random genetic drift. Indeed we observed high genetic differentiation among populations (L. rubripetala, F_ST> G_ST, 6; θ.248, 0.266, 0.293; L. rupestris, 0.148, 0.169, 0.138; L. eltoroensis, 0.251, 0.219, 0.218, respectively). Genetic drift is likely to be important for population differentiation in Lepanthes as a result of small effective population sizes and restricted gene flow.     

Gene flow simulations demonstrate resistance of long-lived species to genetic erosion from habitat fragmentation

Habitat fragmentation restricts the movement of individuals across a landscape. In terrestrial and aquatic systems, barriers to movement can modify population and community dynamics at local or regional scales. This study contrasted life history traits related to lifespan with habitat fragmentation to determine impacts on species population genetic structure in the Neuse River Basin, USA. For this, we simulated gene flow among evenly-spaced populations in a river network and tracked individual and population genetics for 200 years. The modeled scenarios represent a full cross between five life history strategies and four riverscapes representing varying degrees of fragmentation. The five life history strategies include species (based on freshwater mussels) with average lifespans ranging from 10 to 50 years and age at maturity from 2 to 6 years. The movement landscapes included a (1) panmictic, (2) stepping-stone landscape allowing movement to only neighboring populations during each dispersal event, (3) partially-fragmented landscape divided by dams currently in the network, and (4) fully-fragmented landscape. Results suggest species with shorter lifespans have higher population genetic structure in fragmented landscapes than species with longer lifespans. Furthermore, species with shorter lifespans in highly fragmented landscapes may be harboring genetic degradation or decline as allele fixation and loss. Although anthropogenic fragmentation of many river systems is only 100–200 years old, the simulation indicates that species can respond genetically in that period of time. Additionally, the time frame of the simulation suggests that genetic impacts of habitat fragmentation in some species present in the Neuse River Basin may not yet be manifesting and restoration activities could be successful.     

The influence of gene flow and drift on genetic and phenotypic divergence in two species of Zosterops in Vanuatu

Colonization of an archipelago sets the stage for adaptive radiation. However, some archipelagos are home to spectacular radiations, while others have much lower levels of diversification. The amount of gene flow among allopatric populations is one factor proposed to contribute to this variation. In island colonizing birds, selection for reduced dispersal ability is predicted to produce changing patterns of regional population genetic structure as gene flow-dominated systems give way to drift-mediated divergence. If this transition is important in facilitating phenotypic divergence, levels of genetic and phenotypic divergence should be associated. We consider population genetic structure and phenotypic divergence among two co-distributed, congeneric (Genus: Zosterops) bird species inhabiting the Vanuatu archipelago. The more recent colonist, Z. lateralis, exhibits genetic patterns consistent with a strong influence of distance-mediated gene flow. However, complex patterns of asymmetrical gene flow indicate variation in dispersal ability or inclination among populations. The endemic species, Z. flavifrons, shows only a partial transition towards a drift-mediated system, despite a long evolutionary history on the archipelago. We find no strong evidence that gene flow constrains phenotypic divergence in either species, suggesting that levels of inter-island gene flow do not explain the absence of a radiation across this archipelago.     

Gene flow and fine-scale genetic structure in a wind-pollinated tree species, Quercus lobata (Fagaceaee)

California Valley oak (Quercus lobata), one of the state's most distinctive oak species, has experienced serious demographic attrition since the 19th century, due to human activities. Recent estimates of pollen dispersal suggest a small reproductive neighborhood. Whether small neighborhood size is a recent phenomenon, a consequence of reduced gene flow caused by demographic changes, or whether it has been historically restricted, remains unclear. To examine this question, we have characterized the spatial genetic structure of N = 191 Q. lobata individuals, spread over an area of 230 ha, using eight microsatellite loci. The observed autocorrelogram suggests an historical standard deviation of gene flow distance of about 350 m per generation, higher than contemporary pollen dispersal estimates. To determine whether our estimates were affected by strong prevailing winds from the west-northwest, we developed and utilized a novel anisotropic autocorrelation analysis. We detected no more than a hint of anisotropy, and we concluded that adult spatial structure is indicative of strong historical signature of "isolation by distance." This historical estimate provides a useful reference value against which to gauge the future gene flow consequences of ongoing anthropogenic disturbance.     

Tolerance of pollination networks to species extinctions

Mutually beneficial interactions between flowering plants and animal pollinators represent a critical 'ecosystem service' under threat of anthropogenic extinction. We explored probable patterns of extinction in two large networks of plants and flower visitors by simulating the removal of pollinators and consequent loss of the plants that depend upon them for reproduction. For each network, we removed pollinators at random, systematically from least-linked (most specialized) to most-linked (most generalized), and systematically from most- to least-linked. Plant species diversity declined most rapidly with preferential removal of the most-linked pollinators, but declines were no worse than linear. This relative tolerance to extinction derives from redundancy in pollinators per plant and from nested topology of the networks. Tolerance in pollination networks contrasts with catastrophic declines reported from standard food webs. The discrepancy may be a result of the method used: previous studies removed species from multiple trophic levels based only on their linkage, whereas our preferential removal of pollinators reflects their greater risk of extinction relative to that of plants. In both pollination networks, the most-linked pollinators were bumble-bees and some solitary bees. These animals should receive special attention in efforts to conserve temperate pollination systems.     

Selection and drift in subdivided populations: a straightforward method for deriving diffusion approximations and applications involving dominance, selfing and local extinctions

Population structure affects the relative influence of selection and drift on the change in allele frequencies. Several models have been proposed recently, using diffusion approximations to calculate fixation probabilities, fixation times, and equilibrium properties of subdivided populations. We propose here a simple method to construct diffusion approximations in structured populations; it relies on general expressions for the expectation and variance in allele frequency change over one generation, in terms of partial derivatives of a "fitness function" and probabilities of genetic identity evaluated in a neutral model. In the limit of a very large number of demes, these probabilities can be expressed as functions of average allele frequencies in the metapopulation, provided that coalescence occurs on two different timescales, which is the case in the island model. We then use the method to derive expressions for the probability of fixation of new mutations, as a function of their dominance coefficient, the rate of partial selfing, and the rate of deme extinction. We obtain more precise approximations than those derived by recent work, in particular (but not only) when deme sizes are small. Comparisons with simulations show that the method gives good results as long as migration is stronger than selection.     

Inferring landscape resistance to gene flow when genetic drift is spatially heterogeneous

In connectivity models, land cover types are assigned cost values characterizing their resistance to species movements. Landscape genetic methods infer these values from the relationship between genetic differentiation and cost distances. The spatial heterogeneity of population sizes, and consequently genetic drift, is rarely included in this inference although it influences genetic differentiation. Similarly, migration rates and population spatial distributions potentially influence this inference. Here, we assessed the reliability of cost value inference under several migration rates, population spatial patterns and degrees of population size heterogeneity. Additionally, we assessed whether considering intra-population variables, here using gravity models, improved the inference when drift is spatially heterogeneous. We simulated several gene flow intensities between populations with varying local sizes and spatial distributions. We then fit gravity models of genetic distances as a function of (i) the ‘true’ cost distances driving simulations or alternative cost distances, and (ii) intra-population variables (population sizes, patch areas). We determined the conditions making the identification of the ‘true’ costs possible and assessed the contribution of intra-population variables to this objective. Overall, the inference ranked cost scenarios reliably in terms of similarity with the ‘true’ scenario (cost distance Mantel correlations), but this ‘true’ scenario rarely provided the best model goodness of fit. Ranking inaccuracies and failures to identify the ‘true’ scenario were more pronounced when migration was very restricted (<4 dispersal events/generation), population sizes were most heterogeneous and some populations were spatially aggregated. In these situations, considering intra-population variables helps identify cost scenarios reliably, thereby improving cost value inference from genetic data.     

Cyto-nuclear epistasis: two-locus random genetic drift in hermaphroditic and dioecious species

We report the findings of our theoretical investigation of the effect of random genetic drift on the covariance of identity-by-descent (ibd) of nuclear and cytoplasmic genes. The covariance in ibd measures of the degree to which cyto-nuclear gene combinations are heritable, that is, transmitted together from parents to offspring. We show how the mating system affects the covariance of ibd, a potentially important aspect of host-pathogen or host-symbiont coevolution. The magnitude of this covariance influences the degree to which the evolution of apparently neutral cytoplasmic genes, often used in molecular phylogenetics, might be influenced by selection acting on unlinked nuclear genes. To the extent that cyto-nuclear gene combinations are inherited together, genomic conflict is mitigated and intergenomic transfer it facilitated, because genes in both organelle and nuclear genomes share the same evolutionary fate. The covariance of ibd also affects the rate at which cyto-nuclear epistatic variance is converted to additive variance necessary for a response to selection. We find that conversion is biased in species with separate sexes, so that the increment of additive variance added to the nuclear genome exceeds that added to the cytoplasmic genome. As a result, the host might have an adaptive advantage in a coevolutionary arms race with vertically (maternally) transmitted pathogens. Similarly, the nuclear genome could be a source of compensatory mutations for its organellar genomes, as occurs in cytoplasmic male sterility in some plant species. We also discuss the possibility that adaptive cytoplasmic elements, such as favorable mitochondrial mutations or endosymbionts (e.g., Wolbachia), have the potential to release heritable nuclear variation as they sweep through a host population, supporting the view that cytoplasmic introgression plays an important role in adaptation and speciation.     

Alien species as a driver of recent extinctions

We assessed the prevalence of alien species as a driver of recent extinctions in five major taxa (plants, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals), using data from the IUCN Red List. Our results show that alien species are the second most common threat associated with species that have gone completely extinct from these taxa since AD 1500. Aliens are the most common threat associated with extinctions in three of the five taxa analysed, and for vertebrate extinctions overall.     

High variability in patterns of population decline: the importance of local processes in species extinctions

A fundamental goal of conservation science is to improve conservation practice. Understanding species extinction patterns has been a central approach towards this objective. However, uncertainty remains about the extent to which species-level patterns reliably indicate population phenomena at the scale of local sites, where conservation ultimately takes place. Here, we explore the importance of both species- and site-specific components of variation in local population declines following habitat disturbance, and test a suite of hypotheses about their intrinsic and extrinsic drivers. To achieve these goals, we analyse an unusually detailed global dataset for species responses to habitat disturbance, namely primates in timber extraction systems, using cross-classified generalized linear mixed models. We show that while there are consistent differences in the severity of local population decline between species, an equal amount of variation also occurs between sites. The tests of our hypotheses further indicate that a combination of biological traits at the species level, and environmental factors at the site level, can help to explain these patterns. Specifically, primate populations show a more marked decline when the species is characterized by slow reproduction, high ecological requirements, low ecological flexibility and small body size; and when the local environment has had less time for recovery following disturbance. Our results demonstrate that individual species show a highly heterogeneous, yet explicable, pattern of decline. The increased recognition and elucidation of local-scale processes in species declines will improve our ability to conserve biodiversity in the future.     

Warning times for species extinctions due to climate change

Climate change is likely to become an increasingly major obstacle to slowing the rate of species extinctions. Several new assessment approaches have been proposed for identifying climate‐vulnerable species, based on the assumption that established systems such as the IUCN Red List need revising or replacing because they were not developed to explicitly consider climate change. However, no assessment approach has been tested to determine its ability to provide advanced warning time for conservation action for species that might go extinct due to climate change. To test the performance of the Red List system in this capacity, we used linked niche‐demographic models with habitat dynamics driven by a ‘business‐as‐usual’ climate change scenario. We generated replicate 100‐year trajectories for range‐restricted reptiles and amphibians endemic to the United States. For each replicate, we categorized the simulated species according to IUCN Red List criteria at annual, 5‐year, and 10‐year intervals (the latter representing current practice). For replicates that went extinct, we calculated warning time as the number of years the simulated species was continuously listed in a threatened category prior to extinction. To simulate data limitations, we repeated the analysis using a single criterion at a time (disregarding other listing criteria). Results show that when all criteria can be used, the Red List system would provide several decades of warning time (median = 62 years; >20 years for 99% of replicates), but suggest that conservation actions should begin as soon as a species is listed as Vulnerable, because 50% of replicates went extinct within 20 years of becoming uplisted to Critically Endangered. When only one criterion was used, warning times were substantially shorter, but more frequent assessments increased the warning time by about a decade. Overall, we found that the Red List criteria reliably provide a sensitive and precautionary way to assess extinction risk under climate change.     

The divergence of a polygenic system subject to stabilizing selection, mutation and drift

Polygenic variation can be maintained by a balance between mutation and stabilizing selection. When the alleles responsible for variation are rare, many classes of equilibria may be stable. The rate at which drift causes shifts between equilibria is investigated by integrating the gene frequency distribution W2N II (pq)4N mu-1. This integral can be found exactly, by numerical integration, or can be approximated by assuming that the full distribution of allele frequencies is approximately Gaussian. These methods are checked against simulations. Over a wide range of population sizes, drift will keep the population near an equilibrium which minimizes the genetic variance and the deviation from the selective optimum. Shifts between equilibria in this class occur at an appreciable rate if the product of population size and selection on each locus is small (Ns alpha 2 less than 10). The Gaussian approximation is accurate even when the underlying distribution is strongly skewed. Reproductive isolation evolves as populations shift to new combinations of alleles: however, this process is slow, approaching the neutral rate (approximately mu) in small populations.     

Evolution of reproductive effort in a metapopulation with local extinctions and ecological succession

Abstract Using a metapopulation model, we study how local extinctions, limited population life span, and local demographic disequilibrium affect the evolution of the reproductive effort in a species with overlapping generations but no senescence. We show that in a metapopulation with saturation of all sites and an infinite deme maximal life span (no succession), local extinctions simply constitute an additional source of extrinsic mortality. When either the hypothesis of an infinite deme maximal life span or the saturation hypothesis is relaxed, nontrivial predictions arise. in particular, we find interactions between the evolutionarily stable reproductive effort strategy and the demographic dynamics in the metapopulation. We predict that larger reproductive effort may be selected for in habitats of poorer productivity, contrary to what would be predicted in a single population. Also, we predict that higher dispersal rates should favor selection for lower reproductive efforts. However, metapopulation parameters that favor high dispersal rates also favor larger reproductive efforts. Conflicting selection pressures in the metapopulation also allow maintaining evolutionarily stable polymorphism between a low and high reproductive effort for particular trade-offs between survival and fecundity.     

Reductions in connectivity and habitat quality drive local extinctions in a plant diversity hotspot

It is well documented that habitat loss is a major cause of biodiversity decline. However, the roles of the different aspects of habitat loss in local extinctions are less understood. Anthropogenic destruction of an area of habitat causes immediate local extinction but subsequently three additional gradual drivers influence the likelihood of delayed extinction: decreased habitat patch size, lower connectivity and habitat deterioration. We investigated the role of these drivers in local extinctions of 82 declining species in a UK biodiversity hotspot. We combined a unique set of ≈ 7000 vegetation surveys and habitat maps from the 1930s with contemporary species’ occurrences. We extrapolated from these surveys to the whole 2500‐km² study area using habitat suitability surfaces. The strengths of drivers in explaining local extinctions over this 70 yr period were determined by contrasting connectivity, patch size and habitat quality loss for locations at which a species went extinct and those with persisting occurrences. Species’ occurrences declined on average by 60%, with half of local extinctions attributable to immediate habitat loss and half to the gradual processes causing delayed extinctions. On average, locations where a species persisted had a 73% higher contemporary connectivity than those suffering extinctions, but showed no differences in historical connectivity. Furthermore, locations with extinctions experienced a 37% greater decline in suitability associated with changes in habitat type. The strength of the drivers and the proportion of extinctions depended on the species’ habitat specialism, but were affected only minimally by life‐history characteristics. In conclusion, we identified a hierarchy of drivers influencing local extinction: with connectivity loss being the strongest, suitability change being moderately important, but changes in habitat patch size having only weak effects. We suggest conservation efforts could be most effective by strengthening connectivity along with reducing habitat deterioration, which would benefit a wide range of species.     

The effects of migration and drift on local adaptation to a heterogeneous environment

Local adaptation experiments are widely used to quantify the levels of adaptation within a heterogeneous environment. However, theoretical studies generally focus on the probability of fixation of alleles or the mean fitness of populations, rather than local adaptation as it is commonly measured experimentally or in field studies. Here, we develop mathematical models and use them to generate analytical predictions for the level of local adaptation as a function of selection, migration and genetic drift. First, we contrast mean fitness and local adaptation measures and show that the latter can be expressed in a simple and general way as a function of the spatial covariance between population mean phenotype and local environmental conditions. Second, we develop several approximations of a population genetics model to show that the system exhibits different behaviours depending on the rate of migration. The main insights are the following: with intermediate migration, both genetic drift and migration decrease local adaptation; with low migration, drift decreases local adaptation but migration speeds up adaptation; with high migration, genetic drift has no effect on local adaptation. Third, we extend this analysis to cases where the trait under selection is continuous using classical quantitative genetics theory. Finally, we discuss these results in the light of recent experimental work on local adaptation.