A model study on variations in larval supply: are populations of the polychaete <Emphasis Type="Italic">Owenia fusiformis</Emphasis> in the English Channel open or closed?

The polychaete Owenia fusiformis is one of the most ecologically important species in the muddy fine sand sediments in the English Channel where it is distributed in geographically separated populations. A vertically averaged Lagrangian hydrodynamic model integrating tidal residual currents and wind-induced currents was used to drive an advection–diffusion model for investigating the variability of larval transport in order to assess the self-seeding capabilities and the degree of connectivity between local populations. Three different types of environmental forcing (i.e. tidal forcing alone, tidal forcing coupled with either NE winds or SW winds) were applied to 19 distinct populations. Without wind influence, self-seeding is the principal mechanism involved in the renewal of most populations. However, larval retention ranged from under 1% up to 81% in relation to the adult habitat size and the mean velocity of tidal residual currents. Wind forcing had a strong influence on larval dispersal patterns by modifying the origin and densities of settlers as well as the degree of connectivity between populations. As a consequence, larval supply from distant populations generally exceeded local supply and the inter-annual variability of wind forcing induced large year-to-year variations in larval settlement rates. Larval exchanges occurred mainly between neighbouring populations and three groups of interconnected local populations were thereby identified. Within each group, settlement patterns were related to inter-annual variations in the direction and magnitude of larval exchanges. Electronic Publication     

Predicting reef fish connectivity from biogeographic patterns and larval dispersal modelling to inform the development of marine reserve networks

Developing networks of no-take marine reserves is often hindered by uncertainty in the extent to which local marine populations are connected to one another through larval dispersal and recruitment (connectivity). While patterns of connectivity can be predicted by larval dispersal models and validated by empirical methods, biogeographic approaches have rarely been used to investigate connectivity at spatial scales relevant to reserve networks (10's–100's of km). Here, species assemblage patterns in coral reef fish were used together with an individual-based model of dispersal of reef fish larvae to infer patterns of connectivity in a ∼300 km wide region in the Philippines that included the Bohol Sea and adjacent bodies of water. A dominant current flows through the study region, which may facilitate connectivity among >100 no-take reserves. Connectivity was first investigated by analysing data on the presence/absence of 216 species of reef fish and habitat variables across 61 sites. Hierarchical clustering of sites reflecting species assemblage patterns distinguished a major group of sites in the Bohol Sea (Bray–Curtis similarity >70%) from sites situated in adjacent bodies of water (bays, channels between islands and a local sea). The grouping of sites could be partly explained by a combination of degree of embayment, % cover of sand and % cover of rubble (Spearman rank correlation, ρ_w = 0.42). The individual-based model simulated dispersal of reef fish larvae monthly for three consecutive years in the region. The results of simulations, using a range of pelagic larval durations (15–45 days), were consistent with the species assemblage patterns. Sites in the model that showed strongest potential connectivity corresponded to the majority of sites that comprised the Bohol Sea group suggested by hierarchical clustering. Most sites in the model that exhibited weak connectivity were groups of sites which had fish assemblages that were least similar to those in the Bohol Sea group. Concurrent findings from the two approaches suggest a strong influence of local oceanography and geography on broad spatial patterns of connectivity. The predictions can be used as an initial basis to organise existing reserves to form ecologically meaningful networks. This study showed that species assemblage patterns could be a viable supplementary indicator of connectivity if used together with predictions from a larval dispersal model and if the potential effect of habitat on the structuring of species assemblages is taken into consideration.     

The effects of dispersal patterns on marine reserves: does the tail wag the dog?

The concept of marine reserves as a method of improving management of fisheries is gaining momentum. While the list of benefits from reserves is frequently promoted, precise formulations of theory to support reserve design are not fully developed. To determine the size of reserves and the distances between reserves an understanding of the requirements for persistence of local populations is required. Unfortunately, conditions for persistence are poorly characterized, as are the larval dispersal patterns on which persistence depends. With the current paucity of information regarding meroplanktonic larval transport processes, understanding the robustness of theoretical results to larval dispersal is of key importance. From this formulation a broad range of dispersal patterns are analyzed. Larval dispersal is represented by a probability distribution that defines the fraction of successful settlers from an arbitrary location, the origin of the distribution, to any other location along the coast. While the effects of specific dispersal patterns have been investigated for invasion processes, critical habitat size and persistence issues have generally been addressed with only one or two dispersal types. To that end, we formulate models based on integrodifference equations that are spatially continuous and temporally discrete. We consider a range of dispersal distributions from leptokurtic to platykurtic. The effect of different dispersal patterns is considered for a single isolated reserve of varying size receiving no external larvae, as well as multiple reserves with varying degrees of connectivity. While different patterns result in quantitative differences in persistence, qualitatively similar effects across all patterns are seen in both single- and multiple reserve models. Persistence in an isolated reserve requires a size that is approximately twice the mean dispersal distance and regardless of the dispersal pattern the population in a patch is not persistent if the reserve size is reduced to just the mean dispersal distance. With an idealized coastline structure consisting of an infinite line of equally spaced reserves separated by regions of coastline in which reproduction is nil, the relative settlement as a function of the fraction of coastline and size of reserve is qualitatively very similar over a broad range of dispersal patterns. The upper limit for the minimum fraction of coastline held in reserve is about 40%. As the fraction of coastline is reduced, the minimum size of reserve becomes no more than 1.25 times the mean dispersal distance.     

Sharp genetic breaks among populations of Haptosquilla pulchella (Stomatopoda) indicate limits to larval transport: patterns, causes, and consequences

To help stem the precipitous decline of coral reef ecosystems world-wide, conservation efforts are focused on establishing interconnected reserve networks to protect threatened populations. Because many coral reef organisms have a planktonic or pelagic larval dispersal phase, it is critical to understand the patterns of ecological connectivity between reserve populations that result from larval dispersal. We used genetics to infer dispersal patterns among 24 Indo-West Pacific populations of the mantis shrimp, Haptosquilla pulchella. Contrary to predictions of high dispersal facilitated by the strong currents of the Indonesian throughflow, mitochondrial DNA sequences from 393 individuals displayed striking patterns of regional genetic differentiation concordant with ocean basins isolated during periods of lowered sea level. Patterns of genetic structuring indicate that although dispersal within geographical regions with semicontiguous coastlines spanning thousands of kilometres may be common, ecologically meaningful connections can be rare among populations separated by as little as 300 km of open ocean. Strong genetic mosaics in a species with high dispersal potential highlight the utility of genetics for identifying regional patterns of genetic connectivity between marine populations and show that the assumption that ocean currents will provide ecological connectivity among marine populations must be empirically tested in the design of marine reserve networks.     

Reproductive timing alters population connectivity in marine metapopulations

Populations of most marine organisms are connected by the dispersal of larval stages, with profound implications for marine conservation. Because of the extreme effort needed to empirically measure larval exchange, multispecies conservation efforts must estimate connectivity by extrapolation using taxonomy, adult distribution, life history, behavior, or phenology. Using a 6-year record of connectivity realized through trace-elemental fingerprinting of larval shells, we document the seasonal and interannual variability of larval exchange for two congeneric mussel species with overlapping but distinct distribution, life history, and reproduction timing. We reveal consistent autumn poleward movement and spring equatorward movement for both species, coincident with near-shore surface currents. However, because the major reproductive seasons differ, the dominant source-sink dynamics of these two congeneric species are nearly opposite. Consideration of present and future reproductive timing as altered by climate change is crucial to marine connectivity and conservation, especially for the numerous coastal areas subject to seasonal current reversals.     

Population Connectivity Shifts at High Frequency within an Open-Coast Marine Protected Area Network

A complete understanding of population connectivity via larval dispersal is of great value to the effective design and management of marine protected areas (MPA). However empirical estimates of larval dispersal distance, self-recruitment, and within season variability of population connectivity patterns and their influence on metapopulation structure remain rare. We used high-resolution otolith microchemistry data from the temperate reef fish Hypsypops rubicundus to explore biweekly, seasonal, and annual connectivity patterns in an open-coast MPA network. The three MPAs, spanning 46 km along the southern California coastline were connected by larval dispersal, but the magnitude and direction of connections reversed between 2008 and 2009. Self-recruitment, i.e. spawning, dispersal, and settlement to the same location, was observed at two locations, one of which is a MPA. Self-recruitment to this MPA ranged from 50–84%; within the entire 60 km study region, self-recruitment accounted for 45% of all individuals settling to study reefs. On biweekly time scales we observed directional variability in alongshore current data and larval dispersal trajectories; if viewed in isolation these data suggest the system behaves as a source-sink metapopulation. However aggregate biweekly data over two years reveal a reef network in which H. rubicundus behaves more like a well-mixed metapopulation. As one of the few empirical studies of population connectivity within a temperate open coast reef network, this work can inform the MPA design process, implementation of ecosystem based management plans, and facilitate conservation decisions.     

Connectivity and resilience of coral reef metapopulations in marine protected areas: matching empirical efforts to predictive needs

Design and decision-making for marine protected areas (MPAs) on coral reefs require prediction of MPA effects with population models. Modeling of MPAs has shown how the persistence of metapopulations in systems of MPAs depends on the size and spacing of MPAs, and levels of fishing outside the MPAs. However, the pattern of demographic connectivity produced by larval dispersal is a key uncertainty in those modeling studies. The information required to assess population persistence is a dispersal matrix containing the fraction of larvae traveling to each location from each location, not just the current number of larvae exchanged among locations. Recent metapopulation modeling research with hypothetical dispersal matrices has shown how the spatial scale of dispersal, degree of advection versus diffusion, total larval output, and temporal and spatial variability in dispersal influence population persistence. Recent empirical studies using population genetics, parentage analysis, and geochemical and artificial marks in calcified structures have improved the understanding of dispersal. However, many such studies report current self-recruitment (locally produced settlement/settlement from elsewhere), which is not as directly useful as local retention (locally produced settlement/total locally released), which is a component of the dispersal matrix. Modeling of biophysical circulation with larval particle tracking can provide the required elements of dispersal matrices and assess their sensitivity to flows and larval behavior, but it requires more assumptions than direct empirical methods. To make rapid progress in understanding the scales and patterns of connectivity, greater communication between empiricists and population modelers will be needed. Empiricists need to focus more on identifying the characteristics of the dispersal matrix, while population modelers need to track and assimilate evolving empirical results.     

Reproductive output and duration of the pelagic larval stage determine seascape-wide connectivity of marine populations

Connectivity among marine populations is critical for persistence of metapopulations, coping with climate change, and determining the geographic distribution of species. The influence of pelagic larval duration (PLD) on connectivity has been studied extensively, but relatively little is known about the influence of other biological parameters, such as the survival and behavior of larvae, and the fecundity of adults, on population connectivity. Furthermore, the interaction between the seascape (habitat structure and currents) and these biological parameters is unclear. We explore these interactions using a biophysical model of larval dispersal across the Indo-Pacific. We describe an approach that quantifies geographic patterns of connectivity from demographically relevant to evolutionarily significant levels across a range of species. We predict that at least 95% of larval settlement occurs within 155?km of the source population and within 13 days irrespective of the species' life history, yet long-distant connections remain likely. Self-recruitment is primarily driven by the local oceanography, larval mortality, and the larval precompetency period, whereas broad-scale connectivity is strongly influenced by reproductive output (abundance and fecundity of adults) and the length of PLD. The networks we have created are geographically explicit models of marine connectivity that define dispersal corridors, barriers, and the emergent structure of marine populations. These models provide hypotheses for empirical testing.     

Designing connected marine reserves in the face of global warming

Marine reserves are widely used to protect species important for conservation and fisheries and to help maintain ecological processes that sustain their populations, including recruitment and dispersal. Achieving these goals requires well‐connected networks of marine reserves that maximize larval connectivity, thus allowing exchanges between populations and recolonization after local disturbances. However, global warming can disrupt connectivity by shortening potential dispersal pathways through changes in larval physiology. These changes can compromise the performance of marine reserve networks, thus requiring adjusting their design to account for ocean warming. To date, empirical approaches to marine prioritization have not considered larval connectivity as affected by global warming. Here, we develop a framework for designing marine reserve networks that integrates graph theory and changes in larval connectivity due to potential reductions in planktonic larval duration (PLD) associated with ocean warming, given current socioeconomic constraints. Using the Gulf of California as case study, we assess the benefits and costs of adjusting networks to account for connectivity, with and without ocean warming. We compare reserve networks designed to achieve representation of species and ecosystems with networks designed to also maximize connectivity under current and future ocean‐warming scenarios. Our results indicate that current larval connectivity could be reduced significantly under ocean warming because of shortened PLDs. Given the potential changes in connectivity, we show that our graph‐theoretical approach based on centrality (eigenvector and distance‐weighted fragmentation) of habitat patches can help design better‐connected marine reserve networks for the future with equivalent costs. We found that maintaining dispersal connectivity incidentally through representation‐only reserve design is unlikely, particularly in regions with strong asymmetric patterns of dispersal connectivity. Our results support previous studies suggesting that, given potential reductions in PLD due to ocean warming, future marine reserve networks would require more and/or larger reserves in closer proximity to maintain larval connectivity.     

Contrasting demographic and genetic estimates of dispersal in the endangered Coahuilan box turtle: a contemporary approach to conservation

The evolutionary viability of an endangered species depends upon gene flow among subpopulations and the degree of habitat patch connectivity. Contrasting population connectivity over ecological and evolutionary timescales may provide novel insight into what maintains genetic diversity within threatened species. We employed this integrative approach to evaluating dispersal in the critically endangered Coahuilan box turtle (Terrapene coahuila) that inhabits isolated wetlands in the desert‐spring ecosystem of Cuatro Ciénegas, Mexico. Recent wetland habitat loss has altered the spatial distribution and connectivity of habitat patches; and we therefore predicted that T. coahuila would exhibit limited movement relative to estimates of historic gene flow. To evaluate contemporary dispersal patterns, we employed mark–recapture techniques at both local (wetland complex) and regional (intercomplex) spatial scales. Gene flow estimates were obtained by surveying genetic variation at nine microsatellite loci in seven subpopulations located across the species’ geographical range. The mark–recapture results at the local spatial scale reveal frequent movement among wetlands that was unaffected by interwetland distance. At the regional spatial scale, dispersal events were relatively less frequent between wetland complexes. The complementary analysis of population genetic substructure indicates strong historic gene flow (global F_ST = 0.01). However, a relationship of genetic isolation by distance across the geographical range suggests that dispersal limitation exists at the regional scale. Our approach of contrasting direct and indirect estimates of dispersal at multiple spatial scales in T. coahuila conveys a sustainable evolutionary trajectory of the species pending preservation of threatened wetland habitats and a range‐wide network of corridors.     

Genetic assessment of population structure and connectivity in the threatened Mediterranean coral Astroides calycularis (Scleractinia, Dendrophylliidae) at different spatial scales

Understanding dispersal patterns, population structure and connectivity among populations is helpful in the management and conservation of threatened species. Molecular markers are useful tools as indirect estimators of these characteristics. In this study, we assess the population genetic structure of the orange coral Astroides calycularis in the Alboran Sea at local and regional scale, and at three localities outside of this basin. Bayesian clustering methods, traditional F-statistics and D(est) statistics were used to determine the patterns of genetic structure. Likelihood and coalescence approaches were used to infer migration patterns and effective population sizes. The results obtained reveal a high level of connectivity among localities separated by as much as 1 km and moderate levels of genetic differentiation among more distant localities, somewhat corresponding with a stepping-stone model of gene flow and connectivity. These data suggest that connectivity among populations of this coral is mainly driven by the biology of the species, with low dispersal abilities; in addition, hydrodynamic processes, oceanographic fronts and the distribution of rocky substrate along the coastline may influence larval dispersal.     

Does fish larval dispersal differ between high and low latitudes?

Several factors lead to expectations that the scale of larval dispersal and population connectivity of marine animals differs with latitude. We examine this expectation for demersal shorefishes, including relevant mechanisms, assumptions and evidence. We explore latitudinal differences in (i) biological (e.g. species composition, spawning mode, pelagic larval duration, PLD), (ii) physical (e.g. water movement, habitat fragmentation), and (iii) biophysical factors (primarily temperature, which could strongly affect development, swimming ability or feeding). Latitudinal differences exist in taxonomic composition, habitat fragmentation, temperature and larval swimming, and each difference could influence larval dispersal. Nevertheless, clear evidence for latitudinal differences in larval dispersal at the level of broad faunas is lacking. For example, PLD is strongly influenced by taxon, habitat and geographical region, but no independent latitudinal trend is present in published PLD values. Any trends in larval dispersal may be obscured by a lack of appropriate information, or use of ‘off the shelf’ information that is biased with regard to the species assemblages in areas of concern. Biases may also be introduced from latitudinal differences in taxa or spawning modes as well as limited latitudinal sampling. We suggest research to make progress on the question of latitudinal trends in larval dispersal.     

Ecological speciation in tropical reef fishes

The high biodiversity in tropical seas provides a long-standing challenge to allopatric speciation models. Physical barriers are few in the ocean and larval dispersal is often extensive, a combination that should reduce opportunities for speciation. Yet coral reefs are among the most species-rich habitats in the world, indicating evolutionary processes beyond conventional allopatry. In a survey of mtDNA sequences of five congeneric west Atlantic reef fishes (wrasses, genus Halichoeres) with similar dispersal potential, we observed phylogeographical patterns that contradict expectations of geographical isolation, and instead indicate a role for ecological speciation. In Halichoeres bivittatus and the species pair Halichoeres radiatus/brasiliensis, we observed strong partitions (3.4% and 2.3% divergence, respectively) between adjacent and ecologically distinct habitats, but high genetic connectivity between similar habitats separated by thousands of kilometres. This habitat partitioning is maintained even at a local scale where H. bivittatus lineages are segregated between cold- and warm-water habitats in both Bermuda and Florida. The concordance of evolutionary partitions with habitat types, rather than conventional biogeographical barriers, indicates parapatric ecological speciation, in which adaptation to alternative environmental conditions in adjacent locations overwhelms the homogenizing effect of dispersal. This mechanism can explain the long-standing enigma of high biodiversity in coral reef faunas.     

Comparison of population-genetic structuring in congeneric kelp- versus rock-associated snails: a test of a dispersal-by-rafting hypothesis

Phylogeographic studies indicate that many marine invertebrates lacking autonomous dispersal ability are able to achieve trans-oceanic colonization by rafting on buoyant macroalgae. However, less is known about the impact of rafting on on-going population-genetic connectivity of intertidal species associated with buoyant macroalgae. We hypothesize that such species will have higher levels of population-genetic connectivity than those exploiting nonbuoyant substrates such as rock. We tested this hypothesis by comparing nuclear multilocus population-genetic structuring in two sister topshell species, which both have a planktonic larval phase but are fairly well segregated by their habitat preference of low-tidal bull-kelp holdfasts versus mid-to-low tidal bare rock. We analyzed population samples from four sympatric sites spanning 372 km of the east coast of southern New Zealand. The sampled region encompasses a 180 km wide habitat discontinuity and is influenced by a stable, northward coastal current. The level of connectivity was high in both species, and neither of them showed significant correlation between genetic and geographic distances. However, a significant negative partial correlation between genetic distance and habitat discontinuity was found in the rock-associated species, and estimates of migrant movement between sites were somewhat different between the two species, with the kelp-associated species more often yielding higher estimates across the habitat discontinuity, whereas the rock-associated species more often exhibited higher estimates between sites interspersed by rock habitats. We conclude that for species with substantial means of autonomous dispersal, the most conspicuous consequence of kelp dwelling may be enhanced long-distance dispersal across habitat discontinuities rather than a general increase of gene flow.     

Climate change and coral reef connectivity

This review assesses and predicts the impacts that rapid climate change will have on population connectivity in coral reef ecosystems, using fishes as a model group. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to accelerate larval development, potentially leading to reduced pelagic durations and earlier reef-seeking behaviour. Depending on the spatial arrangement of reefs, the expectation would be a reduction in dispersal distances and the spatial scale of connectivity. Small increase in temperature might enhance the number of larvae surviving the pelagic phase, but larger increases are likely to reduce reproductive output and increase larval mortality. Changes to ocean currents could alter the dynamics of larval supply and changes to planktonic productivity could affect how many larvae survive the pelagic stage and their condition at settlement; however, these patterns are likely to vary greatly from place-to-place and projections of how oceanographic features will change in the future lack sufficient certainty and resolution to make robust predictions. Connectivity could also be compromised by the increased fragmentation of reef habitat due to the effects of coral bleaching and ocean acidification. Changes to the spatial and temporal scales of connectivity have implications for the management of coral reef ecosystems, especially the design and placement of marine-protected areas. The size and spacing of protected areas may need to be strategically adjusted if reserve networks are to retain their efficacy in the future.     

Kinship analyses identify fish dispersal events on a temperate coastline

Connectivity is crucial for the persistence and resilience of marine species, the establishment of networks of marine protected areas and the delineation of fishery management units. In the marine environment, understanding connectivity is still a major challenge, due to the technical difficulties of tracking larvae. Recently, parentage analysis has provided a means to address this question effectively. To be effective, this method requires limited adult movement and extensive sampling of parents, which is often not possible for marine species. An alternative approach that is less sensitive to constraints in parental movement and sampling could be the reconstruction of sibships. Here, we directly measure connectivity and larval dispersal in a temperate marine ecosystem through both analytical approaches. We use data from 178 single nucleotide polymorphism markers to perform parentage and sibship reconstruction of the black-faced blenny (Tripterygion delaisi) from an open coastline in the Mediterranean Sea. Parentage analysis revealed a decrease in dispersal success in the focal area over 1 km distance and approximately 6.5% of the juveniles were identified as self-recruits. Sibship reconstruction analysis found that, in general, full siblings did not recruit together to the same location, and that the largest distance between recruitment locations was much higher (11.5 km) than found for parent–offspring pairs (1.2 km). Direct measurements of dispersal are essential to understanding connectivity patterns in different marine habitats, and show the degree of self-replenishment and sustainability of populations of marine organisms. We demonstrate that sibship reconstruction allows direct measurements of dispersal and family structure in marine species while being more easily applied in those species for which the collection of the parental population is difficult or unfeasible.     

Ocean circulation model predicts high genetic structure observed in a long‐lived pelagic developer

Understanding the movement of genes and individuals across marine seascapes is a long‐standing challenge in marine ecology and can inform our understanding of local adaptation, the persistence and movement of populations, and the spatial scale of effective management. Patterns of gene flow in the ocean are often inferred based on population genetic analyses coupled with knowledge of species' dispersive life histories. However, genetic structure is the result of time‐integrated processes and may not capture present‐day connectivity between populations. Here, we use a high‐resolution oceanographic circulation model to predict larval dispersal along the complex coastline of western Canada that includes the transition between two well‐studied zoogeographic provinces. We simulate dispersal in a benthic sea star with a 6–10 week pelagic larval phase and test predictions of this model against previously observed genetic structure including a strong phylogeographic break within the zoogeographical transition zone. We also test predictions with new genetic sampling in a site within the phylogeographic break. We find that the coupled genetic and circulation model predicts the high degree of genetic structure observed in this species, despite its long pelagic duration. High genetic structure on this complex coastline can thus be explained through ocean circulation patterns, which tend to retain passive larvae within 20–50 km of their parents, suggesting a necessity for close‐knit design of Marine Protected Area networks.     

Spatial–temporal analysis of species range expansion: the case of the mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae

Aim The spatial extent of western Canada’s current epidemic of mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae), is increasing. The roles of the various dispersal processes acting as drivers of range expansion are poorly understood for most species. The aim of this paper is to characterize the movement patterns of the mountain pine beetle in areas where range expansion is occurring, in order to describe the fine‐scale spatial dynamics of processes associated with mountain pine beetle range expansion. Location Three regions of Canada’s Rocky Mountains: Kicking Horse Pass, Yellowhead Pass and Pine Pass. Methods Data on locations of mountain pine beetle‐attacked trees of predominantly lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) were obtained from annual fixed‐wing aircraft surveys of forest health and helicopter‐based GPS surveys of mountain pine beetle‐damaged areas in British Columbia and Alberta. The annual (1999–2005) spatial extents of outbreak ranges were delineated from these data. Spatial analysis was conducted using the spatial–temporal analysis of moving polygons (STAMP), a recently developed pattern‐based approach. Results We found that distant dispersal patterns (spot infestations) were most often associated with marginal increases in the areal size of mountain pine beetle range polygons. When the mountain pine beetle range size increased rapidly relative to the years examined, local dispersal patterns (adjacent infestation) were more common. In Pine Pass, long‐range dispersal (> 2 km) markedly extended the north‐east border of the mountain pine beetle range. In Yellowhead Pass and Kicking Horse Pass, the extension of the range occurred incrementally via ground‐based spread. Main conclusions Dispersal of mountain pine beetle varies with geography as well as with host and beetle population dynamics. Although colonization is mediated by habitat connectivity, during periods of low overall habitat expansion, dispersal to new distant locations is common, whereas during periods of rapid invasion, locally connected spread is the dominant mode of dispersal. The propensity for long‐range transport to establish new beetle populations, and thus to be considered a driver of range expansion, is likely to be determined by regional weather patterns, and influenced by local topography. We conclude that STAMP appears to be a useful approach for examining changes in biogeograpical ranges, with the potential to reveal both fine‐ and large‐scale patterns.     

Influence of Biological Factors on Connectivity Patterns for Concholepas concholepas (loco) in Chile

In marine benthic ecosystems, larval connectivity is a major process influencing the maintenance and distribution of invertebrate populations. Larval connectivity is a complex process to study as it is determined by several interacting factors. Here we use an individual-based, biophysical model, to disentangle the effects of such factors, namely larval vertical migration, larval growth, larval mortality, adults fecundity, and habitat availability, for the marine gastropod Concholepas concholepas (loco) in Chile. Lower transport success and higher dispersal distances are observed including larval vertical migration in the model. We find an overall decrease in larval transport success to settlement areas from northern to southern Chile. This spatial gradient results from the combination of current direction and intensity, seawater temperature, and available habitat. From our simulated connectivity patterns we then identify subpopulations of loco along the Chilean coast, which could serve as a basis for spatial management of this resource in the future.     

Larval Dispersal Modeling of Pearl Oyster Pinctada margaritifera following Realistic Environmental and Biological Forcing in Ahe Atoll Lagoon

Studying the larval dispersal of bottom-dwelling species is necessary to understand their population dynamics and optimize their management. The black-lip pearl oyster (Pinctada margaritifera) is cultured extensively to produce black pearls, especially in French Polynesia''s atoll lagoons. This aquaculture relies on spat collection, a process that can be optimized by understanding which factors influence larval dispersal. Here, we investigate the sensitivity of P. margaritifera larval dispersal kernel to both physical and biological factors in the lagoon of Ahe atoll. Specifically, using a validated 3D larval dispersal model, the variability of lagoon-scale connectivity is investigated against wind forcing, depth and location of larval release, destination location, vertical swimming behavior and pelagic larval duration (PLD) factors. The potential connectivity was spatially weighted according to both the natural and cultivated broodstock densities to provide a realistic view of connectivity. We found that the mean pattern of potential connectivity was driven by the southwest and northeast main barotropic circulation structures, with high retention levels in both. Destination locations, spawning sites and PLD were the main drivers of potential connectivity, explaining respectively 26%, 59% and 5% of the variance. Differences between potential and realistic connectivity showed the significant contribution of the pearl oyster broodstock location to its own dynamics. Realistic connectivity showed larger larval supply in the western destination locations, which are preferentially used by farmers for spat collection. In addition, larval supply in the same sectors was enhanced during summer wind conditions. These results provide new cues to understanding the dynamics of bottom-dwelling populations in atoll lagoons, and show how to take advantage of numerical models for pearl oyster management.