Species interactions weakly modify climate‐induced tree co‐occurrence patterns

Aims

Species distributions are hypothesized to be underlain by a complex association of processes that span multiple spatial scales including biotic interactions, dispersal limitation, fine‐scale resource gradients and climate. Species disequilibrium with climate may reflect the effects of non‐climatic processes on species distributions, yet distribution models have rarely directly considered non‐climatic processes. Here, we use a Joint Species Distribution Model (JSDM) to investigate the influence of non‐climatic factors on species co‐occurrence patterns and to directly quantify the relative influences of climate and alternative processes that may generate correlated responses in species distributions, such as species interactions, on tree co‐occurrence patterns.

Location

US Rocky Mountains.

Methods

We apply a Bayesian JSDM to simultaneously model the co‐occurrence patterns of ten dominant tree species across the Rocky Mountains, and evaluate climatic and residual correlations from the fitted model to determine the relative contribution of each component to observed co‐occurrence patterns. We also evaluate predictions generated from the fitted model relative to a single‐species modelling approach.

Results

For most species, correlation due to climate covariates exceeded residual correlation, indicating an overriding influence of broad‐scale climate on co‐occurrence patterns. Accounting for covariance among species did not significantly improve predictions relative to a single‐species approach, providing limited evidence for a strong independent influence of species interactions on distribution patterns.

Conclusions

Overall, our findings indicate that climate is an important driver of regional biodiversity patterns and that interactions between dominant tree species contribute little to explain species co‐occurrence patterns among Rocky Mountain trees.     

Assembly rules of ground-foraging ant assemblages are contingent on disturbance, habitat and spatial scale

Aim A major endeavour of community ecology is documenting non‐random patterns in the composition and body size of coexisting species, and inferring the processes, or assembly rules, that may have given rise to the observed patterns. Such assembly rules include species sorting resulting from interspecific competition, aggregation at patchily distributed resources, and co‐evolutionary dynamics. However, for any given taxon, relatively little is known about how these patterns and processes change through time and vary with habitat type, disturbance history, and spatial scale. Here, we tested for non‐random patterns of species co‐occurrence and body size in assemblages of ground‐foraging ants and asked whether those patterns varied with habitat type, disturbance history, and spatial scale. Location Burned and unburned forests and fens in the Siskiyou Mountains of southern Oregon and northern California, USA. Methods We describe ground‐foraging ant assemblages sampled over two years in two discrete habitat types, namely Darlingtonia fens and upland forests. Half of these sites had been subject to a large‐scale, discrete disturbance – a major fire – in the year prior to our first sample. We used null model analyses to compare observed species co‐occurrence patterns and body‐size distributions in these assemblages with randomly generated assemblages unstructured by competition both within (i.e. at a local spatial scale) and among (i.e. at a regional scale) sites. Results At local spatial scales, species co‐occurrence patterns and body‐size ratios did not differ from randomness. At regional scales, co‐occurrence patterns were random or aggregated, and there was evidence for constant body‐size ratios of forest ants. Although these patterns varied between habitats and years, they did not differ between burned and unburned sites. Main conclusions Our results suggest that the operation of assembly rules depends on spatial scale and habitat type, but that it was not affected by disturbance history from fire.     

Spatial segregation of sympatric marten and fishers: the influence of landscapes and species‐scapes

Co‐occurring species are rarely considered as a factor influencing habitat selection. However, niche theory predicts that sharing resources, predators, and other interspecific interactions can limit the environmental conditions under which a species may exist. How does the spatial distribution of one species affect that of another within shared landscapes? We tested whether sympatric marten Martes americana and fishers M. pennanti in a mountain landscape in Alberta, Canada exhibit local‐scale spatial segregation, beyond differential habitat selection. We modelled marten and fisher distribution in relation to remotely‐sensed habitat data and species co‐occurrence, using generalized linear models and information‐theoretic model selection. Marten and fishers selected different habitat types and showed different responses to habitat fragmentation. Even after accounting for these differences, the absence of one species significantly explained the occurrence of the other. We conclude that the spatial distribution of marten and fishers influences habitat selection by each other at landscape scales, and hypothesize that this pattern may result from competition in a spatially heterogeneous environment. Species‐habitat models that consider only resources may fail to capture key predictors of species’ occurrence. Reliable prediction and inference requires that ecologists expand from landscapes to also include species‐scapes: a spatial plane of species interactions that combines with resources to drive species’ distributions.     

Facilitative plant interactions and climate simultaneously drive alpine plant diversity

Interactions among species determine local‐scale diversity, but local interactions are thought to have minor effects at larger scales. However, quantitative comparisons of the importance of biotic interactions relative to other drivers are rarely made at larger scales. Using a data set spanning 78 sites and five continents, we assessed the relative importance of biotic interactions and climate in determining plant diversity in alpine ecosystems dominated by nurse‐plant cushion species. Climate variables related with water balance showed the highest correlation with richness at the global scale. Strikingly, although the effect of cushion species on diversity was lower than that of climate, its contribution was still substantial. In particular, cushion species enhanced species richness more in systems with inherently impoverished local diversity. Nurse species appear to act as a ‘safety net’ sustaining diversity under harsh conditions, demonstrating that climate and species interactions should be integrated when predicting future biodiversity effects of climate change.     

On the relationship between abiotic stress and co-occurrence patterns: an assessment at the community level using soil lichen communities and multiple stress gradients

The stress‐gradient hypothesis (SGH) predicts a shift from predominant competition to facilitation as abiotic stress increases. Most empirical tests of the SGH have evaluated the interactions between a single or a few pairs of species, have not considered the effects of multiple stress factors, and have not explored these interactions at nested spatial scales. We sampled 63 0.25‐m² plots, each subdivided into 100 5×5 cm and 25 10×10 cm sampling squares, in a semi‐arid Mediterranean environment to evaluate how co‐occurrence patterns among biological soil crusts (BSC)‐forming lichens changed along natural stress gradients driven by water and nutrient (N, P, K) availability. According to the SGH, we tested the hypothesis that the fine‐scale spatial arrangement of BSC‐forming lichens should shift from prevailing interspecific segregation to aggregation as abiotic stress increases. Co‐occurrence patterns ranged from significant species segregation to aggregation at the two spatial scales studied. When using the 5×5 cm grid, more plots showed significant species segregation than aggregation. At this sampling scale, co‐occurrence increased as water and nutrient availability decreased and increased, respectively. Small increases in soil pH promoted species co‐occurrence. Interspecific segregation was promoted as the cover of highly competitive species, such as Diploschistes diacapsis, increased. No significant relationships between co‐occurrence and the surrogates of abiotic stress were observed when data was arranged in a 10×10 cm grid. Our co‐occurrence analyses partially supported predictions from the SGH, albeit the results obtained were dependent on the type of abiotic stress and the spatial scale considered. They show the difficulties of predicting how co‐occurrence patterns change along complex stress gradients, and highlight the need of incorporating the effects of abiotic stress promoted by different resources, such as water and nutrients, into the conceptual framework of the SGH.     

Anthropogenic modification disrupts species co‐occurrence in stream invertebrates

The question of whether species co‐occurrence is random or deterministic has received considerable attention, but little is known about how anthropogenic disturbance mediates the outcomes. By combining experiments, field surveys and analysis against null models, we tested the hypothesis that anthropogenic habitat modification disrupts species co‐occurrence in stream invertebrates across spatial scales. Whereas communities in unmodified conditions were structured deterministically with significant species segregation, catchment‐scale conversion to agriculture and sediment deposition at the patch‐ or micro‐habitat scale apparently randomized species co‐occurrences. This shift from non‐random to random was mostly independent of species richness, abundance and spatial scale. Data on community‐wide life‐history traits (body size, dispersal ability and predatory habits) and beta‐diversity indicated that anthropogenic modification disrupted community assembly by affecting biotic interactions and, to a lesser extent, altering habitat heterogeneity. These data illustrate that the balance between predictable and stochastic patterns in communities can reflect anthropogenic modifications that not only transcend scales but also change the relative forces that determine species coexistence. Research into the effects of habitat modification as a key to understanding global change should extend beyond species richness and composition to include species co‐occurrence, species interactions and any functional consequences.     

A conceptual framework for the spatial analysis of functional trait diversity

Functional trait diversity is a popular tool in modern ecology, mainly used to infer assembly processes and ecosystem functioning. Patterns of functional trait diversity are shaped by ecological processes such as environmental filtering, species interactions and dispersal that are inherently spatial, and different processes may operate at different spatial scales. Adding a spatial dimension to the analysis of functional trait diversity may thus increase our ability to infer community assembly processes and to predict change in assembly processes following disturbance or land‐use change. Richness, evenness and divergence of functional traits are commonly used indices of functional trait diversity that are known to respond differently to large‐scale filters related to environmental heterogeneity and dispersal and fine‐scale filters related to species interactions (competition). Recent developments in spatial statistics make it possible to separately quantify large‐scale patterns (variation in local means) and fine‐scale patterns (variation around local means) by decomposing overall spatial autocorrelation quantified by Moran's coefficient into its positive and negative components using Moran eigenvector maps (MEM). We thus propose to identify the spatial signature of multiple ecological processes that are potentially acting at different spatial scales by contrasting positive and negative components of spatial autocorrelation for each of the three indices of functional trait diversity. We illustrate this approach with a case study from riparian plant communities, where we test the effects of disturbance on spatial patterns of functional trait diversity. The fine‐scale pattern of all three indices was increased in the disturbed versus control habitat, suggesting an increase in local scale competition and an overall increase in unexplained variance in the post‐disturbance versus control community. Further research using simulation modeling should focus on establishing the proposed link between community assembly rules and spatial patterns of functional trait diversity to maximize our ability to infer multiple processes from spatial community structure.     

Competitive interactions change the pattern of species co‐occurrences under neutral dispersal

Non‐random patterns of species segregation and aggregation within ecological communities are often interpreted as evidence for interspecific interactions. However, it is unclear whether theoretical models can predict such patterns and how environmental factors may modify the effects of species interactions on species co‐occurrence. Here we extend a spatially explicit neutral model by including competitive effects on birth and death probabilities to assess whether competition alone is able to produce non‐random patterns of species co‐occurrence. We show that transitive and intransitive competitive hierarchies alone (in the absence of environmental heterogeneity) are indeed able to generate non‐random patterns with commonly used metrics and null models. Moreover, even weak levels of intransitive competition can increase local species richness. However, there is no simple rule or consistent directional change towards aggregation or segregation caused by competitive interactions. Instead, the spatial pattern depends on both the type of species interaction and the strength of dispersal. We conclude that co‐occurrence analysis alone may not able to identify the underlying processes that generate the patterns.     

From competition to facilitation: how tree species respond to neighbourhood diversity

Studies on tree communities have demonstrated that species diversity can enhance forest productivity, but the driving mechanisms at the local neighbourhood level remain poorly understood. Here, we use data from a large‐scale biodiversity experiment with 24 subtropical tree species to show that neighbourhood tree species richness generally promotes individual tree productivity. We found that the underlying mechanisms depend on a focal tree's functional traits: For species with a conservative resource‐use strategy diversity effects were brought about by facilitation, and for species with acquisitive traits by competitive reduction. Moreover, positive diversity effects were strongest under low competition intensity (quantified as the total basal area of neighbours) for acquisitive species, and under high competition intensity for conservative species. Our findings demonstrate that net biodiversity effects in tree communities can vary over small spatial scales, emphasising the need to consider variation in local neighbourhood interactions to better understand effects at the community level.     

The role of climate,water and biotic interactions in shaping biodiversity patterns in arid environments across spatial scales

Aim

Desert ecosystems, with their harsh environmental conditions, hold the key to understanding the responses of biodiversity to climate change. As desert community structure is influenced by processes acting at different spatial scales, studies combining multiple scales are essential for understanding the conservation requirements of desert biota. We investigated the role of environmental variables and biotic interactions in shaping broad and fine‐scale patterns of diversity and distribution of bats in arid environments to understand how the expansion of nondesert species can affect the long‐term conservation of desert biodiversity.

Location

Levant, Eastern Mediterranean.

Methods

We combine species distribution modelling and niche overlap statistics with a statistical model selection approach to integrate interspecific interactions into broadscale distribution models and fine‐scale analysis of ecological requirements. We focus on competition between desert bats and mesic species that recently expanded their distribution into arid environment following anthropogenic land‐use changes.

Results

We show that both climate and water availability limit bat distributions and diversity across spatial scales. The broadscale distribution of bats was determined by proximity to water and high temperatures, although the latter did not affect the distribution of mesic species. At the fine‐scale, high levels of bat activity and diversity were associated with increased water availability and warmer periods. Desert species were strongly associated with warmer and drier desert types. Range and niche overlap were high among potential competitors, but coexistence was facilitated through fine‐scale spatial partitioning of water resources.

Main conclusions

Adaptations to drier and warmer conditions allow desert‐obligate species to prevail in more arid environments. However, this competitive advantage may disappear as anthropogenic activities encroach further into desert habitats. We conclude that reduced water availability in arid environments under future climate change projections pose a major threat to desert wildlife because it can affect survival and reproductive success and may increase competition over remaining water resources.     

From facilitation to competition: temperature‐driven shift in dominant plant interactions affects population dynamics in seminatural grasslands

Biotic interactions are often ignored in assessments of climate change impacts. However, climate‐related changes in species interactions, often mediated through increased dominance of certain species or functional groups, may have important implications for how species respond to climate warming and altered precipitation patterns. We examined how a dominant plant functional group affected the population dynamics of four co‐occurring forb species by experimentally removing graminoids in seminatural grasslands. Specifically, we explored how the interaction between dominants and subordinates varied with climate by replicating the removal experiment across a climate grid consisting of 12 field sites spanning broad‐scale temperature and precipitation gradients in southern Norway. Biotic interactions affected population growth rates of all study species, and the net outcome of interactions between dominants and subordinates switched from facilitation to competition with increasing temperature along the temperature gradient. The impacts of competitive interactions on subordinates in the warmer sites could primarily be attributed to reduced plant survival. Whereas the response to dominant removal varied with temperature, there was no overall effect of precipitation on the balance between competition and facilitation. Our findings suggest that global warming may increase the relative importance of competitive interactions in seminatural grasslands across a wide range of precipitation levels, thereby favouring highly competitive dominant species over subordinate species. As a result, seminatural grasslands may become increasingly dependent on disturbance (i.e. traditional management such as grazing and mowing) to maintain viable populations of subordinate species and thereby biodiversity under future climates. Our study highlights the importance of population‐level studies replicated under different climatic conditions for understanding the underlying mechanisms of climate change impacts on plants.     

Phylogenetic and morphological relationships between nonvolant small mammals reveal assembly processes at different spatial scales

The relative roles of historical processes, environmental filtering, and ecological interactions in the organization of species assemblages vary depending on the spatial scale. We evaluated the phylogenetic and morphological relationships between species and individuals (i.e., inter‐ and intraspecific variability) of Neotropical nonvolant small mammals coexisting in grassland‐forest ecotones, in landscapes and in regions, that is, three different scales. We used a phylogenetic tree to infer evolutionary relationships, and morphological traits as indicators of performance and niche similarities between species and individuals. Subsequently, we applied phylogenetic and morphologic indexes of diversity and distance between species to evaluate small mammal assemblage structures on the three scales. The results indicated a repulsion pattern near forest edges, showing that phylogenetically similar species coexisted less often than expected by chance. The strategies for niche differentiation might explain the phylogenetic repulsion observed at the edge. Phylogenetic and morphological clustering in the grassland and at the forest interior indicated the coexistence of closely related and ecologically similar species and individuals. Coexistence patterns were similar whether species‐trait values or individual values were used. At the landscape and regional scales, assemblages showed a predominant pattern of phylogenetic and morphological clustering. Environmental filters influenced the coexistence patterns at three scales, showing the importance of phylogenetically conserved ecological tolerances in enabling taxa co‐occurrence. Evidence of phylogenetic repulsion in one region indicated that other processes beyond environmental filtering are important for community assembly at broad scales. Finally, ecological interactions and environmental filtering seemed important at the local scale, while environmental filtering and historical colonization seemed important for community assembly at broader scales.     

Testing the link between species interactions and species co‐occurrence in a trophic network

Species interactions are dynamic processes that vary across environmental and ecological contexts, and operate across scale boundaries, making them difficult to quantify. Nevertheless, ecologists are increasingly interested in inferring species interactions from observational data using statistical analyses of their spatial co‐occurrence patterns. Trophic interactions present a particular challenge, as predators and prey may frequently or rarely co‐occur, depending on the spatial or temporal scale of observation. In this study, we investigate the accuracy of inferred interactions among species that both compete and trophically interact. We utilized a long‐term dataset of pond‐breeding amphibian co‐occurrences from Mt Rainier National Park (Washington, USA) and compiled a new dataset of their empirical interactions from the literature. We compared the accuracy of four statistical methods in inferring these known species interactions from spatial associations. We then used the best performing statistical method, the Markov network, to further investigate the sensitivity of interaction inference to spatial scale‐dependence and the presence of predators. We show that co‐occurrence methods are generally inaccurate when estimating trophic interactions. Further the strength and sign of inferred interactions were dependent upon the spatial scale of observation and predator presence influenced the detectability of competitive interactions among prey species. However, co‐occurrence analysis revealed new patterns of spatial association among pairs of species with known interactions. Overall, our study highlights a limiting frontier in co‐occurrence theory and the disconnect between widely implemented methodologies and their ability to accurately infer interactions in trophically‐structured communities.     

Scale dependence of temperature as an abiotic driver of species' distributions

Aim Scale dependence of patterns and processes remains one of the major unresolved problems in ecology. The responses of ecosystems to environmental stressors are reported to be strongly scale dependent, but projections of the effects of climate change on species' distributions are still restricted to particular scales and knowledge about scale dependence is lacking. Here we propose that the scale dependence of those species' niche dimensions related to climate change is strongly related to the strength of climatic cross‐scale links. More specifically, we hypothesize that the strong cross‐scale links between micro‐ and macroclimatic conditions are related to high cross‐scale similarity (low scale dependence) of species' realized temperature niches and, thus, species' spatial distributions. Location This study covers seven orders of magnitude of spatial scale, ranging from local‐scale (below a metre) and regional‐scale (kilometre) investigations in central European wetland ecosystems to continental‐scale (thousands of kilometres) studies of species' distributions. Methods We combined data on the spatial occurrence of species (vegetation records at local and regional scales, digitized distribution maps at the continental scale) with information about the corresponding temperature regime of vascular plant species occurring in environmentally stable wetland ecosystems characterized by strong cross‐scale links between micro‐ and macroclimatic conditions. Results We observed high cross‐scale similarity of the characteristics of species temperature niches across seven orders of magnitude of spatial scale. However, the importance of temperature as an abiotic driver decreased nonlinearly with decreasing scale, suggesting greater importance of additional (biotic) drivers of species' occurrence at small spatial scales. Main conclusions We report high cross‐scale similarity of realized temperature niches for species inhabiting ecosystems where small‐scale environmental noise is low and cross‐scale links between micro‐ and macroclimatic conditions are strong. By highlighting a strong relationship between abiotic and biotic cross‐scale similarity, our results will help to improve niche‐based species distribution modelling, one of the major assessment tools for determining the ecological effects of climate change.     

Changes in Patterns of Species Co‐occurrence across Two Tropical Cloud Forests Differing in Soil Nutrients and Air Temperature

Patterns of co‐occurrence of species are increasingly used to examine the contribution of biotic interactions to community assembly. We assessed patterns of co‐occurrence at four scales, in two types of tropical cloud forests in Hainan Island, China (tropical montane evergreen forests, TMEF and tropical dwarf forests, TDF) that varied significantly in soil nutrients and temperature. We tested if the patterns of co‐occurrence changed when we sorted species into classes by abundance and diameter at breast height (dbh). Co‐occurrence differed by forest type and with plot size, with significant species aggregation observed across larger plots in TDF and patterns of species segregation observed in smaller plots in TMEF. Analyses of differential abundance and dbh classes also showed that smaller plots in TMEF tend to have negative co‐occurrence patterns, but larger plots in TDF tend to show patterns of aggregation, suggesting competitive and facilitative interactions. This underscores the scale‐dependence of the processes contributing to community assembly. Furthermore, it is consistent with predictions of the stress gradient hypothesis that facilitation will be most important in biological systems subject to abiotic stress, while competition will be more important in less abiotically stressful habitats. Our results clearly demonstrate that these two types of tropical cloud forest exhibit different co‐occurrence patterns, and that these patterns are scale‐dependent, though independent of plant abundance and size class.     

Local range boundaries vs. large‐scale trade‐offs: climatic and competitive constraints on tree growth

Species often respond to human‐caused climate change by shifting where they occur on the landscape. To anticipate these shifts, we need to understand the forces that determine where species currently occur. We tested whether a long‐hypothesised trade‐off between climate and competitive constraints explains where tree species grow on mountain slopes. Using tree rings, we reconstructed growth sensitivity to climate and competition in range centre and range margin tree populations in three climatically distinct regions. We found that climate often constrains growth at environmentally harsh elevational range boundaries, and that climatic and competitive constraints trade‐off at large spatial scales. However, there was less evidence that competition consistently constrained growth at benign elevational range boundaries; thus, local‐scale climate‐competition trade‐offs were infrequent. Our work underscores the difficulty of predicting local‐scale range dynamics, but suggests that the constraints on tree performance at a large‐scale (e.g. latitudinal) may be predicted from ecological theory.     

Soil environmental heterogeneity allows spatial co‐occurrence of competitor earthworm species in a gallery forest of the Colombian ‘Llanos’

Disentangling how communities of soil organisms are deterministically structured by abiotic and biotic factors is of utmost relevance, and few data sets on co‐occurrence patterns exist in soil ecology compared to other disciplines. In this study, we assessed species spatial co‐occurrence and niche overlap together with the heterogeneity of selected soil properties in a gallery forest (GF) of the Colombian Llanos. We used null‐model analysis to test for non‐random patterns of species co‐occurrence and body size in assemblages of earthworms and whether the pattern observed was the result of environmental heterogeneity or biotic processes structuring the community at small scales by means of co‐inertia analysis (CoIA). The results showed that earthworm species co‐occurred more frequently than expected by chance at short distances, and CoIA highlighted a significant specific relationship between earthworm species and soil variables. The effect of soil environmental heterogeneity on one litter‐feeding species but also the impact of soil‐feeding species on soil physical properties was revealed. Correlogram analysis on the first axis extracted in the CoIA showed the scale of the common structure shared by the fauna and soil variable tables. The earthworm community was not deterministically structured by competition and co‐occurrence of competing species was facilitated by soil environmental heterogeneity at small scales in the GF. Our results agreed with the coexistence aggregation model which suggests that spatial aggregation of competitors at patchily distributed resources (environment) can facilitate species coexistence.     

Integrating anthropogenic factors into regional‐scale species distribution models—A novel application in the imperiled sagebrush biome

Species distribution models (SDMs) that rely on regional‐scale environmental variables will play a key role in forecasting species occurrence in the face of climate change. However, in the Anthropocene, a number of local‐scale anthropogenic variables, including wildfire history, land‐use change, invasive species, and ecological restoration practices can override regional‐scale variables to drive patterns of species distribution. Incorporating these human‐induced factors into SDMs remains a major research challenge, in part because spatial variability in these factors occurs at fine scales, rendering prediction over regional extents problematic. Here, we used big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) as a model species to explore whether including human‐induced factors improves the fit of the SDM. We applied a Bayesian hurdle spatial approach using 21,753 data points of field‐sampled vegetation obtained from the LANDFIRE program to model sagebrush occurrence and cover by incorporating fire history metrics and restoration treatments from 1980 to 2015 throughout the Great Basin of North America. Models including fire attributes and restoration treatments performed better than those including only climate and topographic variables. Number of fires and fire occurrence had the strongest relative effects on big sagebrush occurrence and cover, respectively. The models predicted that the probability of big sagebrush occurrence decreases by 1.2% (95% CI: ?6.9%, 0.6%) when one fire occurs and cover decreases by 44.7% (95% CI: ?47.9%, ?41.3%) if at least one fire occurred over the 36 year period of record. Restoration practices increased the probability of big sagebrush occurrence but had minimal effect on cover. Our results demonstrate the potential value of including disturbance and land management along with climate in models to predict species distributions. As an increasing number of datasets representing land‐use history become available, we anticipate that our modeling framework will have broad relevance across a range of biomes and species.     

Predicted effects of climate factors on mountain species are not uniform over different spatial scales

The selection of relevant factors and appropriate spatial scale(s) is fundamental when modelling species response to climate change. We evaluated whether the effects of climate factors on species distribution/occurrence are consistently modelled over different spatial scales in birds, and used a two‐scale approach to identify species–climate correlations unlikely to represent causal effects. We used passerine birds inhabiting mountain grassland in the Apennines (Italy) as a model. We surveyed four grassland species at 400 sampling points, and built habitat selection models (territory scale) and distribution models (seven algorithms, landscape scale). We compared the effect of climatic predictors on occurrence/distribution highlighted by models over the two spatial scales, and with the effects supposed a priori based on the climatic niche of each species. Models at the territory level included at least one climatic predictor for three species; the observed effect of climatic predictors was seldom consistent with supposed effects. At the broadest scale, distribution models for all species included climatic predictors, with varying consistence with supposed effects and findings at the finer scale. Despite the importance of climate for species distribution, occurrence could be more directly related to other factors, with important implications for understanding/predicting the impacts of climate/environmental changes. Our approach revealed key variables for grassland birds, and highlighted the scale‐dependent perceived importance of climate. At the local scale, climate effects were weak or hard to interpret. We found a general lack of consistence between supposed and observed effects at the territory level, and between landscape and territory models. Our results show the importance of predicting the potential effect of climatic factors prior to the analyses, carefully selecting ecologically meaningful variables and scales, and evaluating the nature and scale of climate–species links. We call for caution when predicting under future climates, especially when mechanistic effects and consistency across scales are lacking.