Effective size of density‐dependent two‐sex populations: the effect of mating systems

Density dependence in vital rates is a key feature affecting temporal fluctuations of natural populations. This has important implications for the rate of random genetic drift. Mating systems also greatly affect effective population sizes, but knowledge of how mating system and density regulation interact to affect random genetic drift is poor. Using theoretical models and simulations, we compare N_e in short‐lived, density‐dependent animal populations with different mating systems. We study the impact of a fluctuating, density‐dependent sex ratio and consider both a stable and a fluctuating environment. We find a negative relationship between annual N_e/N and adult population size N due to density dependence, suggesting that loss of genetic variation is reduced at small densities. The magnitude of this decrease was affected by mating system and life history. A male‐biased, density‐dependent sex ratio reduces the rate of genetic drift compared to an equal, density‐independent sex ratio, but a stochastic change towards male bias reduces the N_e/N ratio. Environmental stochasticity amplifies temporal fluctuations in population size and is thus vital to consider in estimation of effective population sizes over longer time periods. Our results on the reduced loss of genetic variation at small densities, particularly in polygamous populations, indicate that density regulation may facilitate adaptive evolution at small population sizes.     

Population structure leads to male‐biased population sex ratios under environmental sex determination

Spatial structure has been shown to favor female‐biased sex allocation, but current theory fails to explain male biases seen in many taxa, particularly those with environmental sex determination (ESD). We present a theory and accompanying individual‐based simulation model that demonstrates how population structure leads to male‐biased population sex ratios under ESD. Our simulations agree with earlier work showing that the high productivity of female‐producing habitats creates a net influx of sex‐determining alleles into male‐producing habitats, causing larger sex ratio biases, and lower productivity in male‐producing environments (Harts et al. 2014). In contrast to previous findings, we show that male‐biasing habitats disproportionately impact the global sex ratio, resulting in stable male‐biased population sex ratios under ESD. The failure to detect a male bias in earlier work can be attributed to small subpopulation sizes leading to local mate competition, a condition unlikely to be met in most ESD systems. Simulations revealed that consistent male biases are expected over a wide range of population structures, environmental conditions, and genetic architectures of sex determination, with male excesses as large as 30 percent under some conditions. Given the ubiquity of genetic structure in natural populations, we predict that modest, enduring male biased allocation should be common in ESD species, a pattern consistent with reviews of ESD sex ratios.     

Sex ratio variance and the maintenance of environmental sex determination

Although variation in population sex ratios is predicted to increase the extinction rate of clades with environmental sex determination (ESD), ESD is still seen in a wide array of natural systems. It is unclear how this common sex-determining system has persisted despite this inherent disadvantage associated with ESD. We use simulation modelling to examine the effect of the sex ratio variance caused by ESD on population colonization and establishment. We find that an accelerating function of establishment success on initial population sex ratio favours a system that produces variance in sex ratios over one that consistently produces even sex ratios. This sex ratio variance causes ESD to be favoured over genetic sex determination, even when the mean global sex ratio under both sex-determining systems is the same. Data from ESD populations suggest that the increase in population establishment can more than offset the increased risk of extinction associated with temporal fluctuations in the sex ratio. These findings demonstrate that selection in natural systems can favour increased variance in a trait, irrespective of the mean trait value. Our results indicate that sex ratio variation may provide an advantage to species with ESD, and may help explain the widespread existence of this sex-determining system.     

REPLICATED ORIGIN OF FEMALE‐BIASED ADULT SEX RATIO IN INTRODUCED POPULATIONS OF THE TRINIDADIAN GUPPY (POECILIA RETICULATA)

There are many theoretical and empirical studies explaining variation in offspring sex ratio but relatively few that explain variation in adult sex ratio. Adult sex ratios are important because biased sex ratios can be a driver of sexual selection and will reduce effective population size, affecting population persistence and shapes how populations respond to natural selection. Previous work on guppies (Poecilia reticulata) gives mixed results, usually showing a female‐biased adult sex ratio. However, a detailed analysis showed that this bias varied dramatically throughout a year and with no consistent sex bias. We used a mark‐recapture approach to examine the origin and consistency of female‐biased sex ratio in four replicated introductions. We show that female‐biased sex ratio arises predictably and is a consequence of higher male mortality and longer female life spans with little effect of offspring sex ratio. Inconsistencies with previous studies are likely due to sampling methods and sampling design, which should be less of an issue with mark‐recapture techniques. Together with other long‐term mark‐recapture studies, our study suggests that bias in offspring sex ratio rarely contributes to adult sex ratio in vertebrates. Rather, sex differences in adult survival rates and longevity determine vertebrate adult sex ratio.     

Sex‐specific survival to maturity and the evolution of environmental sex determination

Four decades ago, it was proposed that environmental sex determination (ESD) evolves when individual fitness depends on the environment in a sex‐specific fashion—a form of condition‐dependent sex allocation. Many biological processes have been hypothesized to drive this sex asymmetry, yet a general explanation for the evolution of sex‐determining mechanisms remains elusive. Here, we develop a mathematical model for a novel hypothesis of the evolution of ESD, and provide a first empirical test using data across turtles. ESD is favored when the sex‐determining environment affects annual survival rates equivalently in males and females, and males and females mature at different ages. We compare this hypothesis to alternative hypotheses, and demonstrate how it captures a crucially different process. This maturation process arises naturally from common life histories and applies more broadly to condition‐dependent sex allocation. Therefore, it has widespread implications for animal taxa. Across turtle species, ESD is associated with greater sex differences in the age at maturity compared to species without ESD, as predicted by our hypothesis. However, the effect is not statistically significant and will require expanded empirical investigation. Given variation among taxa in sex‐specific age at maturity, our survival‐to‐maturity hypothesis may capture common selective forces on sex‐determining mechanisms.     

Intragenomic conflict produces sex ratio dynamics that favor maternal sex ratio distorters

Maternal sex ratio distorters (MSDs) are selfish elements that enhance their transmission by biasing their host's sex allocation in favor of females. While previous models have predicted that the female‐biased populations resulting from sex ratio distortion can benefit from enhanced productivity, these models neglect Fisherian selection for nuclear suppressors, an unrealistic assumption in most systems. We used individual‐based computer simulation modeling to explore the intragenomic conflict between sex ratio distorters and their suppressors and explored the impacts of these dynamics on population‐level competition between species characterized by MSDs and those lacking them. The conflict between distorters and suppressors was capable of producing large cyclical fluctuations in the population sex ratio and reproductive rate. Despite fitness costs associated with the distorters and suppressors, MSD populations often exhibited enhanced productivity and outcompeted non‐MSD populations in single and multiple‐population competition simulations. Notably, the conflict itself is beneficial to the success of populations, as sex ratio oscillations limit the competitive deficits associated with prolonged periods of male rarity. Although intragenomic conflict has been historically viewed as deleterious to populations, our results suggest that distorter–suppressor conflict can provide population‐level advantages, potentially helping to explain the persistence of sex ratio distorters in a range of taxa.     

Variation in offspring sex ratio of a long‐lived sexually dimorphic raptor,the Eastern Imperial Eagle Aquila heliaca

Sex ratio theory attempts to explain observed variation in offspring sex ratio at both the population and the brood levels. In the context of low‐fecundity organisms producing high‐investment offspring, the drivers of adaptive variation in sex ratio are incompletely understood. For raptors that display reverse sexual dimorphism (RSD), preferential allocation of resources to the putatively cheaper sex (male) may be a response to environmental, social or demographic stressors. To assess the extent of skew in offspring sex ratios and to evaluate possible dietary, environmental and demographic correlates of such skew to long‐lived RSD avian species, we evaluated the offspring sex ratio of 219 chicks from 119 broods in 30 territories of Eastern Imperial Eagles Aquila heliaca across 7 years and four regions at a nature reserve in Kazakhstan. Only in one region in 1 year of our study did the offspring sex ratio differ significantly from parity (10 males : 1 female in 11 territories). Whereas offspring sex ratios were independent of dietary diversity, precipitation, temperature and productivity, we found that year had a moderate effect on brood sex ratio within territories. Our results provide limited evidence of brood sex manipulation in these populations of Eastern Imperial Eagles, and no mechanistic insight into predictions associated with it. Stochastic variation is likely to explain much of the fluctuation we observed in sex ratios, but our observations are also consistent with the hypothesis that sex‐ratio manipulation may occur irregularly, in concurrence with atypical environmental or demographic conditions that fluctuate at a time scale longer than that of our 7‐year study.     

Sexual conflict in action: An antagonistic relationship between maternal and paternal sex allocation in the tammar wallaby,Notamacropus eugenii

Sex ratio biases are often inconsistent, both among and within species and populations. While some of these inconsistencies may be due to experimental design, much of the variation remains inexplicable. Recent research suggests that an exclusive focus on mothers may account for some of the inconsistency, with an increasing number of studies showing variation in sperm sex ratios and seminal fluids. Using fluorescent in‐situ hybridization, we show a significant population‐level Y‐chromosome bias in the spermatozoa of wild tammar wallabies, but with significant intraindividual variation between males. We also show a population‐level birth sex ratio trend in the same direction toward male offspring, but a weaning sex ratio that is significantly female‐biased, indicating that males are disproportionately lost during lactation. We hypothesize that sexual conflict between parents may cause mothers to adjust offspring sex ratios after birth, through abandonment of male pouch young and reactivation of diapaused embryos. Further research is required in a captive, controlled setting to understand what is driving and mechanistically controlling sperm sex ratio and offspring sex ratio biases and to understand the sexually antagonistic relationship between mothers and fathers over offspring sex. These results extend beyond sex allocation, as they question studies of population processes that assume equal input of sex chromosomes from fathers, and will also assist with future reproduction studies for management and conservation of marsupials.     

Climate change overruns resilience conferred by temperature‐dependent sex determination in sea turtles and threatens their survival

Temperature‐dependent sex determination (TSD) is the predominant form of environmental sex determination (ESD) in reptiles, but the adaptive significance of TSD in this group remains unclear. Additionally, the viability of species with TSD may be compromised as climate gets warmer. We simulated population responses in a turtle with TSD to increasing nest temperatures and compared the results to those of a virtual population with genotypic sex determination (GSD) and fixed sex ratios. Then, we assessed the effectiveness of TSD as a mechanism to maintain populations under climate change scenarios. TSD populations were more resilient to increased nest temperatures and mitigated the negative effects of high temperatures by increasing production of female offspring and therefore, future fecundity. That buffered the negative effect of temperature on the population growth. TSD provides an evolutionary advantage to sea turtles. However, this mechanism was only effective over a range of temperatures and will become inefficient as temperatures rise to levels projected by current climate change models. Projected global warming threatens survival of sea turtles, and the IPCC high gas concentration scenario may result in extirpation of the studied population in 50 years.     

Female common lizards (Lacerta vivipara) do not adjust their sex-biased investment in relation to the adult sex ratio

Sex allocation theory predicts that facultative maternal investment in the rare sex should be favoured by natural selection when breeders experience predictable variation in adult sex ratios (ASRs). We found significant spatial and predictable interannual changes in local ASRs within a natural population of the common lizard where the mean ASR is female-biased, thus validating the key assumptions of adaptive sex ratio models. We tested for facultative maternal investment in the rare sex during and after an experimental perturbation of the ASR by creating populations with female-biased or male-biased ASR. Mothers did not adjust their clutch sex ratio during or after the ASR perturbation, but produced sons with a higher body condition in male-biased populations. However, this differential sex allocation did not result in growth or survival differences in offspring. Our results thus contradict the predictions of adaptive models and challenge the idea that facultative investment in the rare sex might be a mechanism regulating the population sex ratio.     

The evolution of sex‐determining mechanisms: lessons from temperature‐sensitive mutations in sex determination genes in Caenorhabditis elegans

Sexual reproduction is one of the most taxonomically conserved traits, yet sex‐determining mechanisms (SDMs) are quite diverse. For instance, there are numerous forms of environmental sex determination (ESD), in which an organism’s sex is determined not by genotype, but by environmental factors during development. Important questions remain regarding transitions between SDMs, in part because the organisms exhibiting unique mechanisms often make difficult study organisms. One potential solution is to utilize mutant strains in model organisms better suited to answering these questions. We have characterized two such strains of the model nematode Caenorhabditis elegans. These strains harbour temperature‐sensitive mutations in key sex‐determining genes. We show that they display a sex ratio reaction norm in response to rearing temperature similar to other organisms with ESD. Next, we show that these mutations also cause deleterious pleiotropic effects on overall fitness. Finally, we show that these mutations are fundamentally different at the genetic sequence level. These strains will be a useful complement to naturally occurring taxa with ESD in future research examining the molecular basis of and the selective forces driving evolutionary transitions between sex determination mechanisms.     

CULTURAL INHERITANCE AS A MECHANISM FOR POPULATION SEX-RATIO BIAS IN REPTILES

Abstract.— Although natural populations of most species exhibit a 1:1 sex ratio, biased sex ratios are known to be associated with non‐Mendelian inheritance, as in sex‐linked meiotic drive and cytoplasmic inheritance (Charnov 1982; Hurst 1993). We show how cultural inheritance, another type of non‐Mendelian inheritance, can favor skewed primary sex ratios and propose that it may explain the female‐biased sex ratios commonly observed in reptiles with environmental sex determination (ESD). Like cytoplasmic elements, cultural traits can be inherited through one sex. This, in turn, favors skewing the primary sex allocation in favor of the transmitting sex. Female nest‐site philopatry is a sex‐specific, culturally inherited trait in many reptiles with ESD and highly female‐biased sex ratios. We propose that the association of nest‐site selection with ESD facilitates the maternal manipulation of offspring sex ratios toward females.     

Effect of paternal age on the birth sex ratio in captive populations of aye‐aye (Daubentonia madagascariensis (Gmelin))

For the management of captive populations of zoo animals, it is important to elucidate factors that affect the offspring birth sex ratio. On the basis of the sex allocation theory, the Trivers–Willard and mate attractive/quality hypotheses predict that maternal and paternal conditions affect offspring birth sex ratios. We examined these predictions for the birth sex ratio of aye‐aye Daubentonia madagascariensis (Gmelin) by analyzing the pedigree information in the International Studbook. We found that the birth sex ratio of the aye‐aye was affected by the paternal age, but not maternal age and other environmental factors (birth year, season, and institution). The younger the sire, the more the offspring sex ratio was biased toward males. These results are useful for the effective population management of captive aye‐aye and illustrated the usefulness of the sex allocation theory in the sex ratio management of zoo animals.     

SEX RATIO SELECTION AND THE EVOLUTION OF ENVIRONMENTAL SEX DETERMINATION IN LABORATORY POPULATIONS OF MENIDIA MENIDIA

What happens when a population with environmental sex determination (ESD) experiences a change to an extreme environment that causes a highly unbalanced sex ratio? Theory predicts that frequency-dependent selection would increase the proportion of the minority sex and decrease the level of ESD in subsequent generations. We empirically modeled this process by maintaining five laboratory populations of a fish with temperature-dependent sex determination (the Atlantic silverside, Menidia menidia) in extreme constant temperature environments that caused highly skewed sex ratios to occur initially. Increases in the minority sex consistently occurred from one generation to the next across all five populations, first establishing and then maintaining a balanced sex ratio until termination of the experiment at 8 to 10 generations. The extent to which the level of ESD changed as balanced sex ratios evolved, however, was not consistent. Two populations that experienced high temperatures each generation displayed a loss of ESD, and in one of these ESD was virtually eliminated. This suggests that temperature-insensitive, sex-determining genes were being selected. In populations maintained in low temperature environments, however, the level of ESD did not decline. Instead, the response of sex ratio to temperature was adjusted upward or downward, perhaps by selection of sex-determining genes sensitive to higher (or lower) temperatures. The two different outcomes at low versus high temperatures occurred independent of the geographic origin of the founding population. Our results demonstrate that ESD is capable of evolving in response to selection.     

Variations in age‐ and sex‐specific survival rates help explain population trend in a discrete marine mammal population

Understanding the drivers underlying fluctuations in the size of animal populations is central to ecology, conservation biology, and wildlife management. Reliable estimates of survival probabilities are key to population viability assessments, and patterns of variation in survival can help inferring the causal factors behind detected changes in population size. We investigated whether variation in age‐ and sex‐specific survival probabilities could help explain the increasing trend in population size detected in a small, discrete population of bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus off the east coast of Scotland. To estimate annual survival probabilities, we applied capture–recapture models to photoidentification data collected from 1989 to 2015. We used robust design models accounting for temporary emigration to estimate juvenile and adult survival, multistate models to estimate sex‐specific survival, and age models to estimate calf survival. We found strong support for an increase in juvenile/adult annual survival from 93.1% to 96.0% over the study period, most likely caused by a change in juvenile survival. Examination of sex‐specific variation showed weaker support for this trend being a result of increasing female survival, which was overall higher than for males and animals of unknown sex. Calf survival was lower in the first than second year; a bias in estimating third‐year survival will likely exist in similar studies. There was some support first‐born calf survival being lower than for calves born subsequently. Coastal marine mammal populations are subject to the impacts of environmental change, increasing anthropogenic disturbance and the effects of management measures. Survival estimates are essential to improve our understanding of population dynamics and help predict how future pressures may impact populations, but obtaining robust information on the life history of long‐lived species is challenging. Our study illustrates how knowledge of survival can be increased by applying a robust analytical framework to photoidentification data.     

Turtle mating patterns buffer against disruptive effects of climate change

For organisms with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), skewed offspring sex ratios are common. However, climate warming poses the unique threat of producing extreme sex ratio biases that could ultimately lead to population extinctions. In marine turtles, highly female-skewed hatchling sex ratios already occur and predicted increases in global temperatures are expected to exacerbate this trend, unless species can adapt. However, it is not known whether offspring sex ratios persist into adulthood, or whether variation in male mating success intensifies the impact of a shortage of males on effective population size. Here, we use parentage analysis to show that in a rookery of the endangered green turtle (Chelonia mydas), despite an offspring sex ratio of 95 per cent females, there were at least 1.4 reproductive males to every breeding female. Our results suggest that male reproductive intervals may be shorter than the 2-4 years typical for females, and/or that males move between aggregations of receptive females, an inference supported by our satellite tracking, which shows that male turtles may visit multiple rookeries. We suggest that male mating patterns have the potential to buffer the disruptive effects of climate change on marine turtle populations, many of which are already seriously threatened.     

Sex differences in adult mortality rate mediated by early‐life environmental conditions

Variation in sex differences is affected by both genetic and environmental variation, with rapid change in sex differences being more likely due to environmental change. One case of rapid change in sex differences is human lifespan, which has become increasingly female‐biased in recent centuries. Long‐term consequences of variation in the early‐life environment may, in part, explain such variation in sex differences, but whether the early‐life environment mediates sex differences in life‐history traits is poorly understood in animals. Combining longitudinal data on 60 cohorts of pre‐industrial Finns with environmental data, we show that the early‐life environment is associated with sex differences in adult mortality and expected lifespan. Specifically, low infant survival rates and high rye yields (an important food source) in early‐life are associated with female‐bias in adult lifespan. These results support the hypothesis that environmental change has the potential to affect sex differences in life‐history traits in natural populations of long‐lived mammals.     

Close‐kin mating,but not inbred parents,reduces hatching rates and offspring quality in a threatened tortoise

Inbreeding depression, the reduction in fitness due to mating of related individuals, is of particular conservation concern in species with small, isolated populations. Although inbreeding depression is widespread in natural populations, long‐lived species may be buffered from its effects during population declines due to long generation times and thus are less likely to have evolved mechanisms of inbreeding avoidance than species with shorter generation times. However, empirical evidence of the consequences of inbreeding in threatened, long‐lived species is limited. In this study, we leverage a well‐studied population of gopher tortoises, Gopherus polyphemus, to examine the role of inbreeding depression and the potential for behavioural inbreeding avoidance in a natural population of a long‐lived species. We tested the hypothesis that increased parental inbreeding leads to reduced hatching rates and offspring quality. Additionally, we tested for evidence of inbreeding avoidance. We found that high parental relatedness results in offspring with lower quality and that high parental relatedness is correlated with reduced hatching success. However, we found that hatching success and offspring quality increase with maternal inbreeding, likely due to highly inbred females mating with more distantly related males. We did not find evidence for inbreeding avoidance in males and outbred females, suggesting sex‐specific evolutionary trade‐offs may have driven the evolution of mating behaviour. Our results demonstrate inbreeding depression in a long‐lived species and that the evolution of inbreeding avoidance is shaped by multiple selective forces.     

Climate effects on offspring sex ratio in a viviparous lizard

1. Understanding individual and population responses to climate change is emerging as an important challenge. Because many phenotypic traits are sensitive to environmental conditions, directional climate change could significantly alter trait distribution within populations and may generate an evolutionary response. 2. In species with environment-dependent sex determination, climate change may lead to skewed sex ratios at hatching or birth. However, there are virtually no empirical data on the putative link between climatic parameters and sex ratios from natural populations. 3. We monitored a natural population of viviparous lizards with temperature-dependent sex determination (Niveoscincus ocellatus) over seven field seasons. Sex ratios at birth fluctuated significantly among years and closely tracked thermal conditions in the field, with the proportion of male offspring increasing in colder years. 4. This is the first study to demonstrate the effect of local climatic conditions (e.g. temperature) on offspring sex ratio fluctuations in a free-living population of a viviparous ectotherm. A succession of warmer-than-usual years (as predicted under many climate-change scenarios) likely would generate female-biased sex ratios at birth, while an increase in interannual variation (as also predicted under climate change scenarios) could lead to significant fluctuations in cohort sex ratios. If cohort sex ratio bias at birth leads to adult sex ratio bias, long-term directional changes in thermal conditions may have important effects on population dynamics in this species.     

Dynamic sampling bias and overdispersion induced by skewed offspring distributions

Natural populations often show enhanced genetic drift consistent with a strong skew in their offspring number distribution. The skew arises because the variability of family sizes is either inherently strong or amplified by population expansions. The resulting allele-frequency fluctuations are large and, therefore, challenge standard models of population genetics, which assume sufficiently narrow offspring distributions. While the neutral dynamics backward in time can be readily analyzed using coalescent approaches, we still know little about the effect of broad offspring distributions on the forward-in-time dynamics, especially with selection. Here, we employ an asymptotic analysis combined with a scaling hypothesis to demonstrate that over-dispersed frequency trajectories emerge from the competition of conventional forces, such as selection or mutations, with an emerging time-dependent sampling bias against the minor allele. The sampling bias arises from the characteristic time-dependence of the largest sampled family size within each allelic type. Using this insight, we establish simple scaling relations for allele-frequency fluctuations, fixation probabilities, extinction times, and the site frequency spectra that arise when offspring numbers are distributed according to a power law.