Trait–fitness associations do not predict within-species phenotypic evolution over 2 million years

Long-term patterns of phenotypic change are the cumulative results of tens of thousands to millions of years of evolution. Yet, empirical and theoretical studies of phenotypic selection are largely based on contemporary populations. The challenges in studying phenotypic evolution, in particular trait–fitness associations in the deep past, are barriers to linking micro- and macroevolution. Here, we capitalize on the unique opportunity offered by a marine colonial organism commonly preserved in the fossil record to investigate trait–fitness associations over 2 Myr. We use the density of female polymorphs in colonies of Antartothoa tongima as a proxy for fecundity, a fitness component, and investigate multivariate signals of trait–fitness associations in six time intervals on the backdrop of Pleistocene climatic shifts. We detect negative trait–fitness associations for feeding polymorph (autozooid) sizes, positive associations for autozooid shape but no particular relationship between fecundity and brood chamber size. In addition, we demonstrate that long-term trait patterns are explained by palaeoclimate (as approximated by ∂¹⁸O), and to a lesser extent by ecological interactions (i.e. overgrowth competition and substrate crowding). Our analyses show that macroevolutionary outcomes of trait evolution are not a simple scaling-up from the trait–fitness associations.     

Predators weaken prey intraspecific competition through phenotypic selection

Predators have a key role shaping competitor dynamics in food webs. Perhaps the most obvious way this occurs is when predators reduce competitor densities. However, consumption could also generate phenotypic selection on prey that determines the strength of competition, thus coupling consumptive and trait‐based effects of predators. In a mesocosm experiment simulating fish predation on damselflies, we found that selection against high damselfly activity rates – a phenotype mediating predation and competition – weakened the strength of density dependence in damselfly growth rates. A field experiment corroborated this finding and showed that increasing damselfly densities in lakes with high fish densities had limited effects on damselfly growth rates but generated a precipitous growth rate decline where fish densities were lower – a pattern expected because of spatial variation in selection imposed by predation. These results suggest that accounting for both consumption and selection is necessary to determine how predators regulate prey competitive interactions.     

How selection affects phenotypic fluctuation

The large degree of phenotypic fluctuation among isogenic cells highlighted by recent studies on stochastic gene expression confers fitness on some individuals through a ‘bet‐hedging’ strategy, when faced with different selective environments. Under a single selective environment, the fluctuation may be suppressed through evolution, as it prevents maintenance of individuals around the fittest state and/or function. However, as fluctuation can increase phenotypic diversity, similar to mutation, it may contribute to the survival of individuals even under a single selective environment. To discuss whether the fluctuation increases over the course of evolution, cycles of mutation and selection for higher GFP fluorescence were carried out in Escherichia coli. Mutant genotypes possessing broad GFP fluorescence distributions with low average values emerged under strong selection pressure. These ‘broad mutants’ appeared independently on the phylogenetic tree and increased fluctuations in GFP fluorescence were attributable to the variance in mRNA abundance. In addition to the average phenotypic change by genetic mutation, the observed increase in phenotypic fluctuation acts as an evolutionary strategy to produce an extreme phenotype under severe selective environments.     

The spatial patterns of directional phenotypic selection

Local adaptation, adaptive population divergence and speciation are often expected to result from populations evolving in response to spatial variation in selection. Yet, we lack a comprehensive understanding of the major features that characterise the spatial patterns of selection, namely the extent of variation among populations in the strength and direction of selection. Here, we analyse a data set of spatially replicated studies of directional phenotypic selection from natural populations. The data set includes 60 studies, consisting of 3937 estimates of selection across an average of five populations. We performed meta‐analyses to explore features characterising spatial variation in directional selection. We found that selection tends to vary mainly in strength and less in direction among populations. Although differences in the direction of selection occur among populations they do so where selection is often weakest, which may limit the potential for ongoing adaptive population divergence. Overall, we also found that spatial variation in selection appears comparable to temporal (annual) variation in selection within populations; however, several deficiencies in available data currently complicate this comparison. We discuss future research needs to further advance our understanding of spatial variation in selection.     

Evolution of adaptive phenotypic traits without positive Darwinian selection

Recent evidence suggests the frequent occurrence of a simple non-Darwinian (but non-Lamarckian) model for the evolution of adaptive phenotypic traits, here entitled the plasticity-relaxation-mutation (PRM) mechanism. This mechanism involves ancestral phenotypic plasticity followed by specialization in one alternative environment and thus the permanent expression of one alternative phenotype. Once this specialization occurs, purifying selection on the molecular basis of other phenotypes is relaxed. Finally, mutations that permanently eliminate the pathways leading to alternative phenotypes can be fixed by genetic drift. Although the generality of the PRM mechanism is at present unknown, I discuss evidence for its widespread occurrence, including the prevalence of exaptations in evolution, evidence that phenotypic plasticity has preceded adaptation in a number of taxa and evidence that adaptive traits have resulted from loss of alternative developmental pathways. The PRM mechanism can easily explain cases of explosive adaptive radiation, as well as recently reported cases of apparent adaptive evolution over ecological time.     

Evolutionary potential of Chamaecrista fasciculata in relation to climate change. I. Clinal patterns of selection along an environmental gradient in the great plains

Climate change will alter natural selection on native plant populations. Little information is available to predict how selection will change in the future and how populations will respond. Insight can be obtained by comparing selection regimes in current environments to selection regimes in environments similar to those predicted for the future. To mimic predicted temporal change in climate, three natural populations of the annual legume Chamaecrista fasciculata were sampled from a climate gradient in the Great Plains and progeny of formal crosses were reciprocally planted back into common gardens across this climate gradient. In each garden, native populations produced significantly more seed than the other populations, providing strong evidence of local adaptation. Phenotypic selection analysis conducted by site showed that plants with slower reproductive development, more leaves, and thicker leaves were favored in the most southern garden. Evidence of clinal variation in selection regimes was also found; selection coefficients were ordered according to the latitude of the common gardens. The adaptive value of native traits was indicated by selection toward the mean of local populations. Repeated clinal patterns in linear and nonlinear selection coefficients among populations and within and between sites were found. To the extent that temporal change in climate into the future will parallel the differences in selection across this spatial gradient, this study suggests that selection regimes will be displaced northward and different trait values will be favored in natural populations.     

On the standardization of fitness and traits in comparative studies of phenotypic selection

Comparisons of the strength and form of phenotypic selection among groups provide a powerful approach for testing adaptive hypotheses. A central and largely unaddressed issue is how fitness and phenotypes are standardized in such studies; standardization across or within groups can qualitatively change conclusions whenever mean fitness differs between groups. We briefly reviewed recent relevant literature, and found that selection studies vary widely in their scale of standardization, but few investigators motivated their rationale for chosen standardization approaches. Here, we propose that the scale at which fitness should be relativized should reflect whether selection is likely to be hard or soft; that is, the scale at which populations (or hypothetical populations in the case of a contrived experiment) are regulated. We argue that many comparative studies of selection are implicitly or explicitly focused on soft selection (i.e., frequency and density‐dependent selection). In such studies, relative fitness should preferably be calculated using within‐group means, although this approach is taken only occasionally. Related difficulties arise for the standardization of phenotypes. The appropriate scale at which standardization should take place depends on whether groups are considered to be fixed or random. We emphasize that the scale of standardization is a critical decision in empirical studies of selection that should always warrant explicit justification.     

The genetics of phenotypic plasticity. II. Response to selection

We selected on phenotypic plasticity of thorax size in response to temperature in Drosophila melanogaster using a family selection scheme. The results were compared to those of lines selected directly on thorax size. We found that the plasticity of a character does respond to selection and this response is partially independent of the response to selection on the mean of the character. One puzzling result was that a selection limit of zero plasticity was reached in the lines selected for decreased plasticity yet additive genetic variation for plasticity still existed in the lines. We tested the predictions of three models of the genetic basis of phenotypic plasticity: overdominance, pleiotropy, and epistasis. The results mostly support the epistasis model, that the plasticity of a character is determined by separate loci from those determining the mean of the character.     

Sexual selection and population divergence III: Interspecific and intraspecific variation in mating signals

A major challenge for studying the role of sexual selection in divergence and speciation is understanding the relative influence of different sexually selected signals on those processes in both intra‐ and interspecific contexts. Different signals may be more or less susceptible to co‐option for species identification depending on the balance of sexual and ecological selection acting upon them. To examine this, we tested three predictions to explain geographic variation in long‐ versus short‐range sexual signals across a 3,500 + km transect of two related Australian field cricket species (Teleogryllus spp.): (a) selection for species recognition, (b) environmental adaptation and (c) stochastic divergence. We measured male calling song and male and female cuticular hydrocarbons (CHCs) in offspring derived from wild populations, reared under common garden conditions. Song clearly differentiated the species, and no hybrids were observed suggesting that hybridization is rare or absent. Spatial variation in song was not predicted by geography, genetics or climatic factors in either species. In contrast, CHC divergence was strongly associated with an environmental gradient supporting the idea that the climatic environment selects more directly upon these chemical signals. In light of recently advocated models of diversification via ecological selection on secondary sexual traits, the different environmental associations we found for song and CHCs suggest that the impact of ecological selection on population divergence, and how that influences speciation, might be different for acoustic versus chemical signals.     

Multilevel phenotypic selection on morphological characters in a metapopulation of Silene tatarica

This study partitions selection in a natural metapopulation of a riparian plant species, Silene tatarica, into individual- and patch-level components by using contextual analysis, in which a patch refers to a spatially distinct stand of individual plants. We estimated selection gradients for two morphological characters (plant height and number of stems), their respective patch means, and plant density with respect to reproductive success in a two-year study. The approach was also extended to partition selection separately within habitats with varying degrees of exposure to river disturbances and herbivory. The selection differentials and gradients for plant height were positive at both individual and patch levels, with selection forces highest in the closed habitat with low exposure to disturbance. This pattern suggests that local groups with taller than average plants are more visible to pollinators than to groups that are shorter than average plants; and, within patches, individuals with short stature are visited less often than taller ones. Selection on the number of stems was in opposition at individual and patch levels. At the individual level the character was selected toward higher values, whereas selection at the patch-level favored smaller mean number of stems. The strength of the latter component was associated with the intensity of herbivory in different habitats, suggesting that the patch-level selection against a large number of stems might be due to high attractiveness of such patches to the main herbivore, reindeer. Consequently, direction and strength of selection in spatially structured populations may depend significantly on fitness effects arising at the group level.     

Interspecific aggression causes negative selection on sexual characters

Interspecific aggression originating from mistaken species recognition may cause selection on secondary sexual characters, but this hypothesis has remained untested. Here we report a field experiment designed to test directly whether interspecific aggression causes selection on secondary sexual characters, wing spots, in wild damselfly populations. Males of Calopteryx virgo are more aggressive toward males of C. splendens with large than with small wing spots. This differential interspecific aggression may cause negative selection on wing spot size. Indeed, our results show that directional survival selection on wing spot size of C. splendens males was changed by experimental removal of C. virgo males. Without removal, directional selection went from positive to negative with increasing relative abundance of C. virgo males. In populations where C. virgo males were removed, this relationship disappeared. These results verify that interspecific aggression can cause negative selection on sexual characters. Thus, interspecific aggression has the potential to cause divergence on these characters between two species offering an alternative explanation for reinforcement for generating character displacement in secondary sexual characters.     

A multilocus analysis of intraspecific competition and stabilizing selection on a quantitative trait

The equilibrium structure of an additive, diallelic multilocus model of a quantitative trait under frequency- and density-dependent selection is derived. The trait is under stabilizing selection and mediates intraspecific competition as induced, for instance, by differential resource utilization. It is assumed that stabilizing selection is weak, but the strength of competition may be arbitrary relative to it. Density dependence is caused by population regulation, which may be of a very general kind. The number and effects of loci are arbitrary, and stabilizing selection is not necessarily symmetric with respect to the range of phenotypic values. All previously studied models of intraspecific competition for a continuum of resources known to the author reduce to a special case of the present model if overall selection is weak. Therefore, in this case our results are applicable as approximations to all these models. Our central result is the (nearly) complete characterization of the equilibrium and stability structure in terms of all parameters. It is derived under the sole assumption that selection is weak enough relative to recombination to ignore linkage disequilibrium. In particular, necessary and sufficient conditions on the strength of competition relative to stabilizing selection are found that ensure the maintenance of multilocus polymorphism and the occurrence of disruptive selection. In this case, explicit formulas for the number of polymorphic loci at equilibrium, the allele frequencies, the genetic variance, and the strength of disruptive selection are obtained. For two loci, the effects of linkage are investigated analytically; for several loci, they are studied numerically.     

Global patterns of intraspecific leaf trait responses to elevation

Elevational gradients are often used to quantify how traits of plant species respond to abiotic and biotic environmental variations. Yet, such analyses are frequently restricted spatially and applied along single slopes or mountain ranges. Since we know little on the response of intraspecific leaf traits to elevation across the globe, we here perform a global meta‐analysis of leaf traits in 109 plant species located in 4 continents and reported in 71 studies published between 1983 and 2018. We quantified the intraspecific change in seven morpho‐ecophysiological leaf traits along global elevational gradients: specific leaf area (SLA), leaf mass per area (LMA), leaf area (LA), nitrogen concentration per unit of area (Narea), nitrogen concentration per unit mass (Nmass), phosphorous concentration per unit mass (Pmass) and carbon isotope composition (δ¹³C). We found LMA, Narea, Nmass and δ¹³C to significantly increase and SLA to decrease with increasing elevation. Conversely, LA and Pmass showed no significant pattern with elevation worldwide. We found significantly larger increase in Narea, Nmass, Pmass and δ¹³C with elevation in warmer regions. Larger responses to increasing elevation were apparent for SLA of herbaceous compared to woody species, but not for the other traits. Finally, we also detected evidences of covariation across morphological and physiological traits within the same elevational gradient. In sum, we demonstrate that there are common cross‐species patterns of intraspecific leaf trait variation across elevational gradients worldwide. Irrespective of whether such variation is genetically determined via local adaptation or attributed to phenotypic plasticity, the leaf trait patterns quantified here suggest that plant species are adapted to live on a range of temperature conditions. Since the distribution of mountain biota is predominantly shifting upslope in response to changes in environmental conditions, our results are important to further our understanding of how plants species of mountain ecosystems adapt to global environmental change.     

The genetics of phenotypic plasticity. VI. Theoretical predictions for directional selection

We explore the effects of linear and quadratic reaction norms on heritability and directional selection. Genetic variation for reaction norm parameters can alter the heritability of traits; the magnitude of the heritability depends upon both the environment and the correlation among the parameters. Genetic variation for reaction norm parameters can alter the response to directional selection. Selection on a trait in one environment can shift both the mean of the trait measured across environments and the plasticity of the trait; the signs and magnitudes of these responses depend on the correlations among the parameters of the reaction norm. Our model is consistent with the results of ten experiments for selection on a trait in a single environment. In all experiments, selection towards the overall mean of the population always resulted in a relatively lower plasticity than selection away from the overall mean. Our model was able to predict the results of two experiments for selection on a trait index calculated over more than one environment. Predictions were good for the direct response to selection but poorer for the correlated response to selection. Our results indicate the need for more data on the effects of environment on genetic parameters, especially correlations among reaction norm parameters.     

Meta-analysis of phenotypic selection on flowering phenology suggests that early flowering plants are favoured

Flowering times of plants are important life-history components and it has previously been hypothesized that flowering phenologies may be currently subject to natural selection or be selectively neutral. In this study we reviewed the evidence for phenotypic selection acting on flowering phenology using ordinary and phylogenetic meta-analysis. Phenotypic selection exists when a phenotypic trait co-varies with fitness; therefore, we looked for studies reporting an association between two components of flowering phenology (flowering time or flowering synchrony) with fitness. Data sets comprising 87 and 18 plant species were then used to assess the incidence and strength of phenotypic selection on flowering time and flowering synchrony, respectively. The influence of dependence on pollinators, the duration of the reproductive event, latitude and plant longevity as moderators of selection were also explored. Our results suggest that selection favours early flowering plants, but the strength of selection is influenced by latitude, with selection being stronger in temperate environments. However, there is no consistent pattern of selection on flowering synchrony. Our study demonstrates that phenotypic selection on flowering time is consistent and relatively strong, in contrast to previous hypotheses of selective neutrality, and has implications for the evolution of temperate floras under global climate change.     

Evaluating the targets of selection during character displacement

Ecological character displacement occurs when competition imposes divergent selection on interacting species, causing divergence in traits associated with resource use. Generally, divergence is assumed to occur when selection acts on the same, continuously varying trait in both species. However, selection might target multiple traits, and even closely related heterospecifics involved in character displacement might differ in selective targets. We investigated the targets of selection in a species of spadefoot toad, Spea multiplicata, during experimentally imposed competition with a congener, S. bombifrons. When examining traits separately, we found significant selection acting on multiple resource-acquisition traits. Yet, controlling for the independent effects of these traits in a multiple regression revealed that direct selection on a single trait might have contributed toward indirect selection on other correlated traits. Moreover, although we found evidence for plasticity in most traits, competition with S. bombifrons imposed selection on morphology and not on plasticity. Additional experiments suggest that the selective targets during character displacement might differ between the two species involved in this one instance of character displacement. Identifying the targets of competitively mediated selection is crucial, because whether and how character displacement ultimately unfolds depends on the nature of these targets and correlations among them.     

Spatially heterogeneous selection in nature favors phenotypic plasticity in anuran larvae

Theory holds that adaptive phenotypic plasticity evolves under spatial or temporal variation in natural selection. I tested this prediction in a classic system of predator‐induced plasticity: frog tadpoles (Rana temporaria) reacting to predaceous aquatic insects. An outdoor mesocosm experiment manipulating exposure to Aeshna dragonfly larvae revealed plasticity in most characters: growth, development, behavior, and external morphology. I measured selection by placing 1927 tadpoles into enclosures within natural ponds; photographs permitted identification of the survivors six to nine days later. Fitness was defined as a linear combination of growth, development, and survival that correlates with survival to age 2 in another anuran species. In enclosures with many predators, selection‐favored character values similar to those induced by exposure to Aeshna in mesocosms. The shift in selection along the predation gradient was strongest for characters that exhibited high predator‐induced plasticity. A field survey of 50 ponds revealed that predator density changes over a spatial scale relevant for movement of individual adults and larvae: 17% of variation in predation risk was among ponds separated by tens to thousands of meters and 81% was among sites ≤10 m apart within ponds. These results on heterogeneity in the selection regime confirm a key tenant of the standard model for the evolution of plasticity.     

Divergent selection and phenotypic plasticity during incipient speciation in Lake Victoria cichlid fish

Divergent selection acting on several different traits that cause multidimensional shifts are supposed to promote speciation, but the outcome of this process is highly dependent on the balance between the strength of selection vs. gene flow. Here, we studied a pair of sister species of Lake Victoria cichlids at a location where they hybridize and tested the hypothesis that divergent selection acting on several traits can maintain phenotypic differentiation despite gene flow. To explore the possible role of selection we tested for correlations between phenotypes and environment and compared phenotypic divergence (P_ST) with that based on neutral markers (F_ST). We found indications for disruptive selection acting on male breeding colour and divergent selection acting on several morphological traits. By performing common garden experiments we also separated the environmental and heritable components of divergence and found evidence for phenotypic plasticity in some morphological traits contributing to species differences.     

The evolution of phenotypic plasticity in spatially structured environments: implications of intraspecific competition, plasticity costs and environmental characteristics

We model the evolution of reaction norms focusing on three aspects: frequency-dependent selection arising from resource competition, maintenance and production costs of phenotypic plasticity, and three characteristics of environmental heterogeneity (frequency of environments, their intrinsic carrying capacity and the sensitivity to phenotypic maladaptation in these environments). We show that (i) reaction norms evolve so as to trade adaptation for acquiring resources against cost avoidance; (ii) maintenance costs cause reaction norms to better adapt to frequent rather than to infrequent environments, whereas production costs do not; and (iii) evolved reaction norms confer better adaptation to environments with low rather than with high intrinsic carrying capacity. The two previous findings contradict earlier theoretical results and originate from two previously unexplored features that are included in our model. First, production costs of phenotypic plasticity are only incurred when a given phenotype is actually produced. Therefore, they are proportional to the frequency of environments, and these frequencies thus affect the selection pressure to avoid costs just as much as the selection pressure to improve adaptation. This prevents the frequency of environments from affecting the evolving reaction norm. Secondly, our model describes the evolution of plasticity for a phenotype determining an individual's capability to acquire resources, and thus its realized carrying capacity. When individuals are distributed randomly across environments, they cannot avoid experiencing environments with intrinsically low carrying capacity. As selection pressures arising from the need to improve adaptation are stronger under such extreme conditions than under mild ones, better adaptation to environments with low rather than with high intrinsic carrying capacity results.