Landscape level analysis of mountain pine beetle in British Columbia, Canada: spatiotemporal development and spatial synchrony within the present outbreak

Eruptive herbivores can exert profound landscape level influences. For example, the ongoing mountain pine beetle outbreak in British Columbia, Canada, has resulted in mortality of mature lodgepole pine over >7 million ha. Analysis of the spatio‐temporal pattern of spread can lend insights into the processes initiating and/or sustaining such phenomena. We present a landscape level analysis of the development of the current outbreak. Aerial survey assessments of tree mortality, projected onto discrete 12×12 km cells, were used as a proxy for insect population density. We examined whether the outbreak potentially originated from an epicenter and spread, or whether multiple localized populations erupted simultaneously at spatially disjunct locations. An aspatial cluster analysis of time series from 1990 to 2003 revealed four distinct time series patterns. Each time series demonstrated a general progression of increasing mountain pine beetle populations. Plotting the geographical locations of each temporal pattern revealed that the outbreak occurred first in an area of west‐central British Columbia, and then in an area to the east. The plot further revealed many localized infestations erupted in geographically disjunct areas, especially in the southern portion of the province. Autologistic regression analyses indicated a significant, positive association between areas where the outbreak first occurred and conservation lands. For example, the delineated area of west‐central British Columbia is comprised of three conservation parks and adjacent working forest. We further examined how population synchrony declines with distance at different population levels. Examination of the spatial dependence of temporal synchrony in population fluctuations during early, incipient years (i.e. 1990–1996) suggested that outbreaking mountain pine beetle populations are largely independent at scales >200 km during non‐epidemic periods. However, during epidemic years (i.e. 1999–2003), populations were clearly synchronous across the entire province, even at distances of up to 900 km. The epicentral pattern of population development can be used to identify and prioritize adjacent landscape units for both reactive and proactive management strategies intended to minimize mountain pine beetle impacts.     

Spatial–temporal analysis of species range expansion: the case of the mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae

Aim The spatial extent of western Canada’s current epidemic of mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae), is increasing. The roles of the various dispersal processes acting as drivers of range expansion are poorly understood for most species. The aim of this paper is to characterize the movement patterns of the mountain pine beetle in areas where range expansion is occurring, in order to describe the fine‐scale spatial dynamics of processes associated with mountain pine beetle range expansion. Location Three regions of Canada’s Rocky Mountains: Kicking Horse Pass, Yellowhead Pass and Pine Pass. Methods Data on locations of mountain pine beetle‐attacked trees of predominantly lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) were obtained from annual fixed‐wing aircraft surveys of forest health and helicopter‐based GPS surveys of mountain pine beetle‐damaged areas in British Columbia and Alberta. The annual (1999–2005) spatial extents of outbreak ranges were delineated from these data. Spatial analysis was conducted using the spatial–temporal analysis of moving polygons (STAMP), a recently developed pattern‐based approach. Results We found that distant dispersal patterns (spot infestations) were most often associated with marginal increases in the areal size of mountain pine beetle range polygons. When the mountain pine beetle range size increased rapidly relative to the years examined, local dispersal patterns (adjacent infestation) were more common. In Pine Pass, long‐range dispersal (> 2 km) markedly extended the north‐east border of the mountain pine beetle range. In Yellowhead Pass and Kicking Horse Pass, the extension of the range occurred incrementally via ground‐based spread. Main conclusions Dispersal of mountain pine beetle varies with geography as well as with host and beetle population dynamics. Although colonization is mediated by habitat connectivity, during periods of low overall habitat expansion, dispersal to new distant locations is common, whereas during periods of rapid invasion, locally connected spread is the dominant mode of dispersal. The propensity for long‐range transport to establish new beetle populations, and thus to be considered a driver of range expansion, is likely to be determined by regional weather patterns, and influenced by local topography. We conclude that STAMP appears to be a useful approach for examining changes in biogeograpical ranges, with the potential to reveal both fine‐ and large‐scale patterns.     

Stand‐replacing fires reduce susceptibility of lodgepole pine to mountain pine beetle outbreaks in Colorado

Aim As climate change is increasing the frequency, severity and extent of wildfire and bark beetle outbreaks, it is important to understand how these disturbances interact to affect ecological patterns and processes, including susceptibility to subsequent disturbances. Stand‐replacing fires and outbreaks of mountain pine beetle (MPB), Dendroctonus ponderosae, are both important disturbances in the lodgepole pine, Pinus contorta, forests of the Rocky Mountains. In the current study we investigated how time since the last stand‐replacing fire affects the susceptibility of the stand to MPB outbreaks in these forests. We hypothesized that at a stand‐scale, young post‐fire stands (< c. 100–150 years old) are less susceptible to past and current MPB outbreaks than are older stands. Location Colorado, USA. Methods We used dendroecological methods to reconstruct stand‐origin dates and the history of outbreaks in 23 lodgepole pine stands. Results The relatively narrow range of establishment dates among the oldest trees in most sampled stands suggested that these stands originated after stand‐replacing or partially stand‐replacing fires over the past three centuries. Stands were affected by MPB outbreaks in the 1940s/1950s, 1980s and 2000s/2010s. Susceptibility to outbreaks generally increased with stand age (i.e. time since the last stand‐replacing fire). However, this reduced susceptibility of younger post‐fire stands was most pronounced for the 1940s/1950s outbreak, less so for the 1980s outbreak, and did not hold true for the 2000s/2010s outbreak. Main conclusions Younger stands may not have been less susceptible to the most recent outbreak because: (1) after stands reach a threshold age of > 100–150 years, stand age does not affect susceptibility to outbreaks, or (2) the high intensity of the most recent outbreak reduces the importance of pre‐disturbance conditions for susceptibility to disturbance. If the warm and dry conditions that contribute to MPB outbreaks concurrently increase the frequency and/or extent of severe fires, they may thereby mitigate the otherwise increased landscape‐scale susceptibility to outbreaks. Potential increases in severe fires driven by warm and dry climatic trends may lead to a negative feedback by making lodgepole pine stands less susceptible to future MPB outbreaks.     

Phase transition from environmental to dynamic determinism in mountain pine beetle attack

Mountain pine beetle outbreaks are responsible for widespread tree mortality in pine forests throughout western North America. Intensive outbreaks result in significant economic loss to the timber industry and massive changes to the forest habitat. Because of the time and space scales involved in a beetle outbreak, mathematical models are needed to study the evolution of an outbreak. In this paper we present a partial differential equation model of the flight phase of the mountain pine beetle which includes chemotactic responses and tree defense. We present a numerical method for integrating this model and use this method to investigate the relationship between emergence rate, forest demographic and patterns of beetle attack. In particular we look at how emergence rate affects the beetles' ability to successfully attack strong trees, which may be an indicator of an epidemic outbreak.     

Climate change and the outbreak ranges of two North American bark beetles

Abstract

• 1 One expected effect of global climate change on insect populations is a shift in geographical distributions toward higher latitudes and higher elevations. Southern pine beetle Dendroctonus frontalis and mountain pine beetle Dendroctonus ponderosae undergo regional outbreaks that result in large‐scale disturbances to pine forests in the south‐eastern and western United States, respectively.
• 2 Our objective was to investigate potential range shifts under climate change of outbreak areas for both bark beetle species and the areas of occurrence of the forest types susceptible to them.
• 3 To project range changes, we used discriminant function models that incorporated climatic variables. Models to project bark beetle ranges employed changed forest distributions as well as changes in climatic variables.
• 4 Projected outbreak areas for southern pine beetle increased with higher temperatures and generally shifted northward, as did the distributions of the southern pine forests.
• 5 Projected outbreak areas for mountain pine beetle decreased with increasing temperature and shifted toward higher elevation. That trend was mirrored in the projected distributions of pine forests in the region of the western U.S. encompassed by the study.
• 6 Projected outbreak areas for the two bark beetle species and the area of occurrence of western pine forests increased with more precipitation and decreased with less precipitation, whereas the area of occurrence of southern pine forests decreased slightly with increasing precipitation.
• 7 Predicted shifts of outbreak ranges for both bark beetle species followed general expectations for the effects of global climate change and reflected the underlying long‐term distributional shifts of their host forests.

     

The Influence of Previous Mountain Pine Beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) Activity on the 1988 Yellowstone Fires

We examined the historical record of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) activity within Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, for the 25-years period leading up to the 1988 Yellowstone fires (1963–86) to determine how prior beetle activity and the resulting tree mortality affected the spatial pattern of the 1988 Yellowstone fires. To obtain accurate estimates of our model parameters, we used a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to account for the high degree of spatial autocorrelation inherent to forest fires. Our final model included three statistically significant variables: drought, aspect, and sustained mountain pine beetle activity in the period 1972–75. Of the two major mountain pine beetle outbreaks that preceded the 1988 fires, the earlier outbreak (1972–75) was significantly correlated with the burn pattern, whereas the more recent one (1980–83) was not. Although regional drought and high winds were responsible for the large scale of this event, the analysis indicates that mountain pine beetle activity in the mid-1970s increased the odds of burning in 1988 by 11% over unaffected areas. Although relatively small in magnitude, this effect, combined with the effects of aspect and spatial variation in drought, had a dramatic impact on the spatial pattern of burned and unburned areas in 1988.     

Breach of the northern Rocky Mountain geoclimatic barrier: initiation of range expansion by the mountain pine beetle

Aim Our aim is to examine the historical breach of the geoclimatic barrier of the Rocky Mountains by the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins). This recent range expansion from west of the North American continental divide into the eastern boreal forest threatens to provide a conduit to naïve pine hosts in eastern North America. We examine the initial expansion events and determine potential mechanism(s) of spread by comparing spread patterns in consecutive years to various dispersal hypotheses such as: (1) meso‐scale atmospheric dispersal of insects from source populations south‐west of the Rocky Mountains in British Columbia (i.e. their historical range), (2) anthropogenic transport of infested plant material, and (3) spread of insect populations across adjacent stands via corridors of suitable habitat. Location British Columbia, Canada. Methods We explore potential mechanism(s) of invasion of the mountain pine beetle using spatial point process models for the initial 3 years of landscape‐level data collection, 2004–2006. Specifically, we examine observed patterns of infestation relative to covariates reflecting various dispersal hypotheses. We select the most parsimonious models for each of the initial 3 years of invasion using information criteria statistics. Results The initial range expansion and invasion of the beetle was characterized by aerial deposition along a strong north‐west to south‐east gradient, with additional aerial deposition and localized dispersal from persisting populations in following years. Main conclusions Following deposition of a wave front of mountain pine beetles parallel to the Rocky Mountains via meso‐scale atmospheric dispersal, the areas of highest intensity of infestations advanced up to 25 km north‐east towards jack pine (Pinus banksiana) habitat in a single year. There appeared to be no association between putative anthropogenic movement of infested materials and initial range expansion of the mountain pine beetle across the continental divide.     

Influences of the biophysical environment on blister rust and mountain pine beetle,and their interactions,in whitebark pine forests

Aim To understand how the biophysical environment influences patterns of infection by non‐native blister rust (caused by Cronartium ribicola) and mortality caused by native mountain pine beetles (Dendroctonus ponderosae) in whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) communities, to determine how these disturbances interact, and to gain insight into how climate change may influence these patterns in the future. Location High‐elevation forests in south‐west Montana, central Idaho, eastern and western Oregon, USA. Methods Stand inventory and dendroecological methods were used to assess stand structure and composition and to reconstruct forest history at sixty 0.1‐ha plots. Patterns of blister rust infection and mountain pine beetle‐caused mortality in whitebark pine trees were examined using nonparametric Kruskal–Wallis ANOVA, Mann–Whitney U‐tests, and Kolmogorov–Smirnov two‐sample tests. Stepwise regression was used to build models of blister rust infection and mountain pine beetle‐related mortality rates based on a suite of biophysical site variables. Results Occurrence of blister rust infections was significantly different among the mountain ranges, with a general gradient of decreasing blister rust occurrence from east to west. Evidence of mountain pine beetle‐caused mortality was identified on 83% of all dead whitebark pine trees and was relatively homogenous across the study area. Blister rust infected trees of all ages and sizes uniformly, while mountain pine beetles infested older, larger trees at all sites. Stepwise regressions explained 64% and 58% of the variance in blister rust infection and beetle‐caused mortality, respectively, indicating that these processes are strongly influenced by the biophysical environment. More open stand structures produced by beetle outbreaks may increase the exposure of surviving whitebark pine trees to blister rust infection. Main conclusions Variability in the patterns of blister rust infection and mountain pine beetle‐caused mortality elucidated the fundamental dynamics of these disturbance agents and suggests that the effects of climate change will be complex in whitebark pine communities and vary across the species’ range. Interactions between blister rust and beetle outbreaks may accelerate declines or facilitate the rise of rust resistance in whitebark pine depending on forest conditions at the time of the outbreak.     

The effect of warmer winters on the demography of an outbreak insect is hidden by intraspecific competition

Warmer climates are predicted to increase bark beetle outbreak frequency, severity, and range. Even in favorable climates, however, outbreaks can decelerate due to resource limitation, which necessitates the inclusion of competition for limited resources in analyses of climatic effects on populations. We evaluated several hypotheses of how climate impacts mountain pine beetle reproduction using an extensive 9‐year dataset, in which nearly 10,000 trees were sampled across a region of approximately 90,000 km², that was recently invaded by the mountain pine beetle in Alberta, Canada. Our analysis supports the hypothesis of a positive effect of warmer winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle overwinter survival and provides evidence that the increasing trend in minimum winter temperatures over time in North America is an important driver of increased mountain pine beetle reproduction across the region. Although we demonstrate a consistent effect of warmer minimum winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle reproductive rates that is evident at the landscape and regional scales, this effect is overwhelmed by the effect of competition for resources within trees at the site level. Our results suggest that detection of the effects of a warming climate on bark beetle populations at small spatial scales may be difficult without accounting for negative density dependence due to competition for resources.     

Movement of outbreak populations of mountain pine beetle: influences of spatiotemporal patterns and climate

Insect outbreaks exert landscape-level influences, yet quantifying the relative contributions of various exogenous and endogenous factors that contribute to their pattern and spread remains elusive. We examine an outbreak of mountain pine beetle covering an 800 thousand ha area on the Chilcotin Plateau of British Columbia, Canada, during the 1970s and early 1980s. We present a model that incorporates the spatial and temporal arrangements of outbreaking insect populations, as well as various climatic factors that influence insect development. Onsets of eruptions of mountain pine beetle demonstrated landscape-level synchrony. On average, the presence of outbreaking populations was highly correlated with outbreaking populations within the nearest 18  km the same year and local populations within 6 km in the previous two years. After incorporating these spatial and temporal dependencies, we found that increasing temperatures contributed to explaining outbreak probabilities during this 15  yr outbreak. During collapse years, landscape-level synchrony declined while local synchrony values remained high, suggesting that in some areas host depletion was contributing to population decline. Model forecasts of outbreak propensity one year in advance at a 12 by 12  km scale provided 80% accuracy over the landscape, and never underestimated the occurrence of locally outbreaking populations. This model provides a flexible approach for linking temperature and insect population dynamics to spatial spread, and complements existing decision support tools for resource managers.     

The Role of Wildfire,Prescribed Fire,and Mountain Pine Beetle Infestations on the Population Dynamics of Black-Backed Woodpeckers in the Black Hills,South Dakota

Wildfire and mountain pine beetle infestations are naturally occurring disturbances in western North American forests. Black-backed woodpeckers (Picoides arcticus) are emblematic of the role these disturbances play in creating wildlife habitat, since they are strongly associated with recently-killed forests. However, management practices aimed at reducing the economic impact of natural disturbances can result in habitat loss for this species. Although black-backed woodpeckers occupy habitats created by wildfire, prescribed fire, and mountain pine beetle infestations, the relative value of these habitats remains unknown. We studied habitat-specific adult and juvenile survival probabilities and reproductive rates between April 2008 and August 2012 in the Black Hills, South Dakota. We estimated habitat-specific adult and juvenile survival probability with Bayesian multi-state models and habitat-specific reproductive success with Bayesian nest survival models. We calculated asymptotic population growth rates from estimated demographic rates with matrix projection models. Adult and juvenile survival and nest success were highest in habitat created by summer wildfire, intermediate in MPB infestations, and lowest in habitat created by fall prescribed fire. Mean posterior distributions of population growth rates indicated growing populations in habitat created by summer wildfire and declining populations in fall prescribed fire and mountain pine beetle infestations. Our finding that population growth rates were positive only in habitat created by summer wildfire underscores the need to maintain early post-wildfire habitat across the landscape. The lower growth rates in fall prescribed fire and MPB infestations may be attributed to differences in predator communities and food resources relative to summer wildfire.     

What explains landscape patterns of tree mortality caused by bark beetle outbreaks in Greater Yellowstone?

Aim Bark beetle outbreaks have recently affected extensive areas of western North American forests, and factors explaining landscape patterns of tree mortality are poorly understood. The objective of this study was to determine the relative importance of stand structure, topography, soil characteristics, landscape context (the characteristics of the landscape surrounding the focal stand) and beetle pressure (the abundance of local beetle population eruptions around the focal stand a few years before the outbreak) to explain landscape patterns of tree mortality during outbreaks of three species: the mountain pine beetle, which attacks lodgepole pine and whitebark pine; the spruce beetle, which feeds on Engelmann spruce; and the Douglas‐fir beetle, which attacks Douglas‐fir. A second objective was to identify common variables that explain tree mortality among beetle–tree host pairings during outbreaks. Location Greater Yellowstone ecosystem, Wyoming, USA. Methods We used field surveys to quantify stand structure, soil characteristics and topography at the plot level in susceptible stands of each forest type showing different severities of infestation (0–98% mortality; n= 129 plots). We then used forest cover and beetle infestation maps derived from remote sensing to develop landscape context and beetle pressure metrics at different spatial scales. Plot‐level and landscape‐level variables were used to explain outbreak severity. Results Engelmann spruce and Douglas‐fir mortality were best predicted using landscape‐level variables alone. Lodgepole pine mortality was best predicted by both landscape‐level and plot‐level variables. Whitebark pine mortality was best – although poorly – predicted by plot‐level variables. Models including landscape context and beetle pressure were much better at predicting outbreak severity than models that only included plot‐level measures, except for whitebark pine. Main conclusions Landscape‐level variables, particularly beetle pressure, were the most consistent predictors of subsequent outbreak severity within susceptible stands of all four host species. These results may help forest managers identify vulnerable locations during ongoing outbreaks.     

Observations and modeling of aboveground tree carbon stocks and fluxes following a bark beetle outbreak in the western United States

Bark beetle epidemics result in tree mortality across millions of hectares in North America. However, few studies have quantified impacts on carbon (C) cycling. In this study, we quantified the immediate response and subsequent trajectories of stand‐level aboveground tree C stocks and fluxes using field measurements and modeling for a location in central Idaho, USA that experienced an outbreak of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins). We measured tree characteristics in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) plots spanning a range of structure and mortality conditions. We then initialized the forest vegetation simulator, an individual tree‐based model, with these measurements and simulated the response of aboveground production of C fluxes as well as trajectories of C stocks and fluxes in the coming decades. Mountain pine beetles killed up to 52% of the trees within plots, with more larger trees killed. C stocks in lodgepole pine were reduced by 31–83% following the outbreak, and plot‐level C fluxes decreased 28–73%. Modeled C stocks increased nearly continuously following the infestation, recovering to preoutbreak levels in 25 years or less. Simulated aboveground tree C fluxes increased following the immediate postoutbreak decrease, then subsequently declined. Substantial variability of C stocks and fluxes among plots resulted from the number and size of killed and surviving trees. Our study illustrates that bark beetle epidemics alter forest C cycling unlike stand‐replacement wildfires or clear‐cut harvests, due in part to incomplete mortality coupled with the preference by beetles for larger trees. The dependency of postoutbreak C stocks and fluxes on stand structure suggests that C budget models and studies in areas experiencing mountain pine beetle disturbances need to include size distribution of trees for the most accurate results.     

Climate change could alter the distribution of mountain pine beetle outbreaks in western Canada

Climate change can markedly impact biology, population ecology, and spatial patterns of eruptive insects due to the direct influence of temperature on insect development and population success. The mountain pine beetle Dendroctonus ponderosae (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), is a landscape‐altering insect that infests forests of North America. Abundant availability of host trees due to altered disturbance regimes has facilitated an unprecedented, landscape‐wide outbreak of this pest in British Columbia and Alberta, Canada, during the past decade. A previous outbreak in the 1980s, in central British Columbia, collapsed due to host depletion and extreme cold weather events. Despite the importance of such extreme weather events and other temperature‐related signals in modulating an outbreak, few landscape‐level models have studied the associations of extreme cold events with outbreak occurrences. We studied the individual associations of several biologically‐relevant cold temperature variables, and other temperature/degree‐day terms, with outbreak occurrences in a spatial‐temporal logistic regression model using data from the current outbreak. Timing, frequency, and duration of cold snaps had a severe negative association with occurrence of an outbreak in a given area. Large drops in temperature (>10°C) or extreme winter minimum temperatures reduced the outbreak probability. We then used the model to apply eight different climate change scenarios to the peak year of the current outbreak. Our scenarios involved combinations of increasing annual temperature and different variances about this trend. Our goal was to examine how spatial outbreak pattern would have changed in the face of changing thermal regime if the underlying outbreak behaviour remained consistent. We demonstrate that increases in mean temperature by 1°C to 4°C profoundly increased the risk of outbreaks with effects first being manifested at higher elevations and then at increasing latitudes. However, increasing the variance associated with a mean temperature increase did not change the overall trend in outbreak potential.     

Spatial genetic structure of the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreak in western Canada: historical patterns and contemporary dispersal

Environmental change has a wide range of ecological consequences, including species extinction and range expansion. Many studies have shown that insect species respond rapidly to climatic change. A mountain pine beetle epidemic of record size in North America has led to unprecedented mortality of lodgepole pine, and a significant range expansion to the northeast of its historic range. Our goal was to determine the spatial genetic variation found among outbreak population from which genetic structure, and dispersal patterns may be inferred. Beetles from 49 sampling locations throughout the outbreak area in western Canada were analysed at 13 microsatellite loci. We found significant north-south population structure as evidenced by: (i) Bayesian-based analyses, (ii) north-south genetic relationships and diversity gradients; and (iii) a lack of isolation-by-distance in the northernmost cluster. The north-south structure is proposed to have arisen from the processes of postglacial colonization as well as recent climate-driven changes in population dynamics. Our data support the hypothesis of multiple sources of origin for the outbreak and point to the need for population specific information to improve our understanding and management of outbreaks. The recent range expansion across the Rocky Mountains into the jack/lodgepole hybrid and pure jack pine zones of northern Alberta is consistent with a northern British Columbia origin. We detected no loss of genetic variability in these populations, indicating that the evolutionary potential of mountain pine beetle to adapt has not been reduced by founder events. This study illustrates a rapid range-wide response to the removal of climatic constraints, and the potential for range expansion of a regional population.     

Area‐wide application of verbenone‐releasing flakes reduces mortality of whitebark pine Pinus albicaulis caused by the mountain pine beetle Dendroctonus ponderosae

• 1 DISRUPT Micro‐Flake Verbenone Bark Beetle Anti‐Aggregant flakes (Hercon Environmental, Inc., Emigsville, Pennsylvania) were applied in two large‐scale tests to assess their efficacy for protecting whitebark pine Pinus albicaulis Engelm. from attack by mountain pine beetle Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Scolytinae) (MPB). At two locations, five plots of equivalent size and stand structure served as untreated controls. All plots had early‐ to mid‐outbreak beetle populations (i.e. 7.1–29.2 attacked trees/ha). Verbenone was applied at 370 g/ha in both studies. Intercept traps baited with MPB aggregation pheromone were placed near the corners of each plot after the treatment in order to monitor beetle flight within the plots. Trap catches were collected at 7‐ to 14‐day intervals, and assessments were made at the end of the season of stand structure, stand composition and MPB attack rate for the current and previous years.
• 2 Applications of verbenone flakes significantly reduced the numbers of beetles trapped in treated plots compared with controls at both sites by approximately 50% at the first collection date.
• 3 The applications also significantly reduced the proportion of trees attacked in both Wyoming and Washington using the proportion of trees attacked the previous year as a covariate in the model for analysis of current year attack rates; in both sites, the reduction was ≥ 50%.
• 4 The flake formulation of verbenone appears to have promise for area‐wide treatment by aerial application when aiming to control the mountain pine beetle in whitebark pine forests.

     

Spatial scaling of mountain pine beetle infestations

1. The relationship between occupancy and spatial contagion during the spread of eruptive and invasive species demands greater study, as it could lead to improved prediction of ecosystem damage. 2. We applied a recently developed model that links occupancy and its fractal dimension to model the spatial distribution of mountain pine beetle infestations in British Columbia, Canada. We showed that the distribution of infestation was scale-invariant in at least 24 out of 37 years (mostly in epidemic years), and presented some degree of scale-invariance in the rest. There was a general logarithmic relationship between fractal dimension and infestation occupancy. Based on the scale-invariance assumption, we further assessed the interrelationships for several landscape metrics, such as correlation length, maximum cluster size, total edge length and total number of clusters. 3. The scale-invariance assumption allows fitting the above metrics, and provides a framework to establish the scaling relationship between occupancy and spatial contagion. 4. We concluded that scale-invariance dominates the spread of mountain pine beetle. In this context, spatial aggregation can be predicted from occupancy, hence occupancy is the only variable one needs to know in order to predict the spatial distributions of populations. This supports the hypothesis that fractal dispersal kernels may be abundant among outbreaks of pests and invasive species.     

Spatial Community Structure of Mountain Pine Beetle Fungal Symbionts Across a Latitudinal Gradient

Symbiont redundancy in obligate insect–fungal systems is thought to buffer the insect host against symbiont loss and to extend the environmental conditions under which the insect can persist. The mountain pine beetle is associated with at least three well-known and putatively obligate ophiostomatoid fungal symbionts that vary in their environmental tolerances. To better understand the spatial variation in beetle–fungal symbiotic associations, we examined the community composition of ophiostomatoid fungi associated with the mountain pine beetle as a function of latitude and elevation. The region investigated represents the leading edge of a recent outbreak of mountain pine beetle in western Canada. Using regression and principal components analysis, we identified significant spatial patterns in fungal species abundances that indicate symmetrical replacement between two of the three fungi along a latitudinal gradient and little variation in response to elevation. We also identified significant variation in the prevalence of pair-wise species combinations that occur within beetle galleries. Frequencies of pair-wise combinations were significantly different from what was expected given overall species abundances. These results suggest that complex processes of competitive exclusion and coexistence help determine fungal community composition and that the consequences of these processes vary spatially. The presence of three fungal symbionts in different proportions and combinations across a wide range of environmental conditions may help explain the success of mountain pine beetle attacks across a broad geographic range.     

Mountain Pine Beetle Presence Affects Nest Patch Choice of Red-Breasted Nuthatches

Abstract: The mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreak in western Canada poses significant conservation concern; thus, insights into its effects on wildlife habitat are essential. We used generalized linear mixed models to examine the influence of quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) and mountain pine beetle—infected lodgepole pine (Pinus contortus) on nest patch selection of red-breasted nuthatches (Sitta canadensis) in central British Columbia, Canada. Prior to the outbreak, nuthatches selected nest patches with 64% more suitable nest trees (standing dead aspen, ≥12.5 cm dbh) than available (103 trees/ha vs. 63 trees/ha, respectively), but in outbreak years nuthatches chose nest patches with 37% more beetle-infected pine trees than available (63 trees/ha vs. 46 trees/ha, respectively). Our results suggest that nuthatches select sites that maximize nesting and foraging opportunities and, during food pulses, may trade off higher densities of suitable nest trees for higher densities of foraging trees. (JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT 72(3):733–737; 2008)