Carbon dynamics in the future forest: the importance of long‐term successional legacy and climate–fire interactions

Understanding how climate change may influence forest carbon (C) budgets requires knowledge of forest growth relationships with regional climate, long‐term forest succession, and past and future disturbances, such as wildfires and timber harvesting events. We used a landscape‐scale model of forest succession, wildfire, and C dynamics (LANDIS‐II) to evaluate the effects of a changing climate (A2 and B1 IPCC emissions; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory General Circulation Models) on total forest C, tree species composition, and wildfire dynamics in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California, and Nevada. The independent effects of temperature and precipitation were assessed within and among climate models. Results highlight the importance of modeling forest succession and stand development processes at the landscape scale for understanding the C cycle. Due primarily to landscape legacy effects of historic logging of the Comstock Era in the late 1880s, C sequestration may continue throughout the current century, and the forest will remain a C sink (Net Ecosystem Carbon Balance > 0), regardless of climate regime. Climate change caused increases in temperatures limited simulated C sequestration potential because of augmented fire activity and reduced establishment ability of subalpine and upper montane trees. Higher temperatures influenced forest response more than reduced precipitation. As the forest reached its potential steady state, the forest could become C neutral or a C source, and climate change could accelerate this transition. The future of forest ecosystem C cycling in many forested systems worldwide may depend more on major disturbances and landscape legacies related to land use than on projected climate change alone.     

像元尺度上不确定性对空间景观直观模型模拟的影响

LANDIS模型是模拟自然和人为干扰下森林景观变化的空间直观景观模型。模型把景观概念化为由相同大小的像元或样地组成的格网。在每一个像元上,模型要求输入物种和年龄组信息。但是,由于研究区一般由成千上百万个像元构成,不可能通过实际调查获取每一个像元上的物种和年龄组信息。因此,采用了一种基于小班的随机赋值法从森林调查数据中获取每一个像元的物种和年龄组信息。该方法是一种基于概率的方法,会在LANDIS模型模拟的物种和年龄组信息的输入中引入不确定性。为了评价由基于小班的随机赋值法所引入像元尺度上的不确定性对模型模拟结果的影响,用蒙特卡罗模拟法进行不确定性分析。对LANDIS模型模拟的每一个物种,用众数年龄组发生频率来定量化单个像元上年龄组信息的不确定性,用所有像元上的众数年龄组平均发生频率来定量化年龄组信息在像元尺度上总的不确定性。平均发生频率越高,不确定性越低。为了评价基于小班的随机赋值法对景观尺度上模型模拟结果的影响,计算了每一个物种在整个研究区内的面积百分比和聚集度指数。变异系数越大,不确定性越高。对所有物种,年龄组信息不确定性在模型模拟的初期是比较低的(平均发生频率大于10)。种子传播、建群、死亡和火干扰使模型结果的不确定性随模拟时间增加而增加。最后,不确定性达到稳定状态,达到平衡状态的时间与物种寿命接近。此时,初始的物种和年龄组信息不再对模型结果有影响。在景观尺度上,物种分布面积百分比和由聚集度指数所定量化的空间格局并未受像元尺度上不确定性增加的影响。因为LANDIS模型模拟研究的目的在于预测总的景观格局变化,而不是单一的事件,所以,基于小班的随机赋值法可用于LANDIS模型的参数化。     

空间直观景观模型LANDIS Ⅰ．运行机制

空间直观景观模型是指在异质景观中模拟景观尺度上生态过程的空间直观模型．LANDIS是一个用于模拟森林景观干扰、演替和管理的空间直观景观模型．通过在样地尺度上跟踪以10年为间隔的物种年龄级,半定量化地描述火和风倒,及使用位数组表示物种年龄结构,LANDIS能同时在物种、样地和景观尺度上模拟各种生态过程及其相互关系．详细论述了LANDIS模型对种子传播、火、风倒和砍伐等生态过程的模拟,并讨论了模型中存在的一些不足．     

Projected climate change effects on Alberta's boreal forests imply future challenges for oil sands reclamation

Climate change will drive significant changes in vegetation cover and also impact efforts to restore ecosystems that have been disturbed by human activities. Bitumen mining in the Alberta oil sands region of western Canada requires reclamation to “equivalent land capability,” implying establishment of vegetation similar to undisturbed boreal ecosystems. However, there is consensus that this region will be exposed to relatively severe climate warming, causing increased occurrence of drought and wildfire, which threaten the persistence of both natural and reclaimed ecosystems. We used a landscape model, LANDIS‐II, to simulate plant responses to climate change and disturbances, forecasting changes to boreal forests within the oil sands region. Under the most severe climate forcing scenarios (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5) the model projected substantial decreases in forest biomass, with the future forest being dominated by drought‐ and fire‐tolerant species characteristic of parkland or prairie ecosystems. In contrast, less extreme climate forcing scenarios (RCPs 2.6 and 4.5) had relatively minor effects on forest composition and biomass with boreal conifers continuing to dominate the landscape. If the climate continues to change along a trajectory similar to those simulated by climate models for the RCP 8.5 forcing scenario, current reclamation goals to reestablish spruce‐dominated boreal forest will likely be difficult to achieve. Results from scenario modeling studies such as ours, and continued monitoring of change in the boreal forest, will help inform reclamation practices, which could include establishment of species better adapted to warmer and drier conditions.     

气候变化和不同强度造林对大兴安岭主要树种林分信息和地上生物量的长期影响

气候变化及相应火干扰在不同尺度上影响着我国大兴安岭地区森林动态,且在未来的影响可能继续加剧。为了提高森林生态功能和应对气候变暖,国家在分类经营基础上全面实施抚育采伐和补植造林,效果较好,但抚育采伐对森林主要树种的长期影响知之甚少,其在未来气候下的可持续性也有待进一步评估,同时,探讨造林措施对未来森林的影响也显得尤为重要。本文运用森林景观模型LANDIS PRO,模拟气候变化及火干扰、采伐和造林对大兴安岭地区主要树种的长期影响。结果表明:1)模型初始化、短期和长期模拟结果均得到了有效验证,模拟结果与森林调查数据之间无显著性差异(P0.05),基于火烧迹地数据的林火干扰验证亦能够反映当前火干扰的效果,模型模拟结果的可信度较高;2)与当前气候相比,气候变暖及火干扰明显改变了树种组成、年龄结构和地上生物量,B1气候下研究区森林基本上以针叶树种为主要树种,A2气候下优势树种向阔叶树转变;3)与无采伐预案相比,当前气候下,抚育采伐使落叶松的林分密度和地上生物量分别降低了(165±94.9)株/hm~2和(8.5±5.1) Mg/hm~2,增加了樟子松、白桦和云杉等树木株数和地上生物量(3.3—753.4株/hm~2和0.2—4.0 Mg/hm~2),而对山杨的影响较小;B1和A2气候下抚育采伐显著改变林分密度,降低景观尺度地上生物量,进而表现为不可持续;4)B1气候下,推荐实施中低强度造林预案(10%和20%强度),在A2气候下,各强度造林均可在模拟后期增加树种地上生物量。     

林火干扰对大兴安岭主要林分类型地上生物量预测的影响模拟研究

林火干扰是北方森林最主要的自然干扰之一,对北方森林地上生物量影响是一个长期的过程。因此,在预测地上生物量动态变化时需要考虑林火的影响。运用空间直观景观模型LANDIS PRO,模拟大兴安岭林区林火对不同树种地上生物量预测的影响。选取研究区5种主要树种林分(兴安落叶松、樟子松、云杉、白桦和山杨),以无干扰情景为参考预案,在验证模型模拟结果的基础上,模拟林火在短期(0—50a)、中期(50—150a)和长期(150—300a)对地上生物量的定量化影响,及其对不同立地类型地上生物量的动态变化。结果表明:(1)基于森林调查数据参数化的2000年森林景观模拟结果能够较好地代表2000年真实森林景观,模拟的2010年森林林分密度和胸高断面积与2010年森林调查数据无显著性差异(P0.05),当前林火干扰机制模拟结果能够较好地与样地调查数据匹配,说明林火模拟能够代表当前研究区林火发生情况;(2)与无干扰预案相比,整个模拟时期内景观水平上林火减少了1.7—5.9 t/hm2地上生物量;(3)与无干扰预案相比,林火预案下主要树种生物量在短期、中期和长期变化显著(P0.05);(4)在不同模拟时期,林火显著地改变了地上生物量空间分布,其中以亚高山区地上生物量降低最为明显。研究可为长期森林管理以及森林可持续发展提供参考。     

No evidence for consistent long‐term growth stimulation of 13 tropical tree species: results from tree‐ring analysis

The important role of tropical forests in the global carbon cycle makes it imperative to assess changes in their carbon dynamics for accurate projections of future climate–vegetation feedbacks. Forest monitoring studies conducted over the past decades have found evidence for both increasing and decreasing growth rates of tropical forest trees. The limited duration of these studies restrained analyses to decadal scales, and it is still unclear whether growth changes occurred over longer time scales, as would be expected if CO₂‐fertilization stimulated tree growth. Furthermore, studies have so far dealt with changes in biomass gain at forest‐stand level, but insights into species‐specific growth changes – that ultimately determine community‐level responses – are lacking. Here, we analyse species‐specific growth changes on a centennial scale, using growth data from tree‐ring analysis for 13 tree species (~1300 trees), from three sites distributed across the tropics. We used an established (regional curve standardization) and a new (size‐class isolation) growth‐trend detection method and explicitly assessed the influence of biases on the trend detection. In addition, we assessed whether aggregated trends were present within and across study sites. We found evidence for decreasing growth rates over time for 8–10 species, whereas increases were noted for two species and one showed no trend. Additionally, we found evidence for weak aggregated growth decreases at the site in Thailand and when analysing all sites simultaneously. The observed growth reductions suggest deteriorating growth conditions, perhaps due to warming. However, other causes cannot be excluded, such as recovery from large‐scale disturbances or changing forest dynamics. Our findings contrast growth patterns that would be expected if elevated CO₂ would stimulate tree growth. These results suggest that commonly assumed growth increases of tropical forests may not occur, which could lead to erroneous predictions of carbon dynamics of tropical forest under climate change.     

浙江天童国家森林公园植被自然演替动态模拟

应用空间明晰景观模型LANDIS 6.0 PRO,以浙江天童国家森林公园常绿阔叶林为研究对象,根据天童国家野外观测站的长期研究和观测数据对LANDIS模型进行参数化,模拟无干扰情况下常绿阔叶林在未来500年间的演替动态,分析优势种和主要景观类型的空间分布以及年龄结构组成,揭示了常绿阔叶林演替的规律.结果表明： 研究区物种的交替多发生在常绿阔叶林阶段之前,马尾松、白栎和枫香等先锋物种在演替初期占有较大比例,但随着时间的推移逐渐退出,木荷和栲树等物种在演替后期占有较大优势,并逐渐发展成木荷 栲树顶极群落;无干扰的情况下,在演替前期,群落多由幼龄林构成,后期则多以成熟林或过熟林为主,群落更新能力不足.LANDIS模型可应用于我国东部常绿阔叶林的景观动态模拟,今后的研究应结合亚热带常绿阔叶林的复杂性和多样性,对模型结构和模型参数进行完善和
改进.     

气候变化、林火和营林措施对寒温带典型森林生态弹性的影响

生态弹性是森林生态系统在遭受外在扰动后恢复到稳定状态的能力,是森林资源可持续发展的重要目标之一,且森林生态弹性对诸如气候变化、林火和营林措施等外部因子的影响较为敏感.探究这些外部因子对森林生态弹性的影响在未来森林生态系统管理方面有重要意义.本研究首先从森林组成、结构和功能等方面选取指标因子并估算了森林生态弹性值,然后运用LANDIS PRO模型,模拟气候变化、林火干扰和营林措施等对寒温带典型森林生态弹性的影响,并探讨了当前抚育采伐方案在未来气候下的可持续性.结果表明: 模型初始化的2000年林分密度和胸高断面积与2000年真实景观较为吻合,模拟的2010年森林景观与野外调查数据无明显差异,基于当前林火干扰状况的模拟结果与火烧迹地调查数据基本匹配,说明林火模块能很好地模拟当前研究区林火发生状况.林火干扰增加30%将会使该区模拟期内景观水平上森林生态弹性提高15.7%～40.8%,而林火干扰增加200%则会降低该区4.4%～24.6%的森林生态弹性.短期和中期林火干扰增加对森林生态弹性的影响大于气候变化的影响.与当前预案相比,B1气候(林火增加30%预案)和A2气候(林火增加200%预案)对整个模拟阶段景观尺度森林生态弹性的影响分别处于-15.9%～38.9%和-60.4%～34.8%范围内.与无采伐预案相比,B1和A2气候下在整个模拟时期内若继续实施当前抚育采伐方案,将不利于景观水平森林生态弹性的提高.在B1气候(林火增加30%预案)下,在各模拟时期内无需实施任何营林措施;而在A2气候(林火增加200%预案)下,建议实施中、高强度种植的营林措施以提升景观水平森林生态弹性.     

Different facets of tree sapling diversity influence browsing intensity by deer dependent on spatial scale

Browsing of tree saplings by deer hampers forest regeneration in mixed forests across Europe and North America. It is well known that tree species are differentially affected by deer browsing, but little is known about how different facets of diversity, such as species richness, identity, and composition, affect browsing intensity at different spatial scales. Using forest inventory data from the Hainich National Park, a mixed deciduous forest in central Germany, we applied a hierarchical approach to model the browsing probability of patches (regional scale) as well as the species‐specific proportion of saplings browsed within patches (patch scale). We found that, at the regional scale, the probability that a patch was browsed increased with certain species composition, namely with low abundance of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and high abundance of European ash (Fraxinus excelsior L.), whereas at the patch scale, the proportion of saplings browsed per species was mainly determined by the species’ identity, providing a “preference ranking” of the 11 tree species under study. Interestingly, at the regional scale, species‐rich patches were more likely to be browsed; however, at the patch scale, species‐rich patches showed a lower proportion of saplings per species browsed. Presumably, diverse patches attract deer, but satisfy nutritional needs faster, such that fewer saplings need to be browsed. Some forest stand parameters, such as more open canopies, increased the browsing intensity at either scale. By showing the effects that various facets of diversity, as well as environmental parameters, exerted on browsing intensity at the regional as well as patch scale, our study advances the understanding of mammalian herbivore–plant interactions across scales. Our results also indicate which regeneration patches and species are (least) prone to browsing and show the importance of different facets of diversity for the prediction and management of browsing intensity and regeneration dynamics.     

模拟分类经营对小兴安岭林区森林生物量的影响

运用空间直观景观模型LANDIS 7.0 PRO,模拟了在当前采伐模式和无采伐两个预案下,小兴安岭林区森林生物量及主要树种生物量在2000—2200年间的动态。模拟结果如下:(1)无采伐预案下,森林生物量由最初的93.6 t/hm2逐渐升高,90a后达到最大值258 t/hm2,之后森林生物量在245 t/hm2上下小幅波动;(2)前100a采伐预案会明显降低森林生物量,与无采伐预案相比森林生物量最大可降低21.4 t/hm2,平均减少14.7 t/hm2;后100a采伐对森林生物量的影响逐渐减弱,森林生物量平均减少2.6 t/hm2;(3)当前采伐模式促进保护树种红松和紫椴生长,其生物量分别最大可提高9.0 t/hm2和0.53 t/hm2,占到无采伐预案生物量的56%和15%;(4)采伐预案对云冷杉生物量影响较小,主要降低先锋树种(白桦、山杨)和一些阔叶树种(枫桦、春榆)的生物量。研究结果表明现行采伐模式在未来100 a内会显著影响森林生物量,之后其影响逐渐减小,并且保护政策能提高所保护树种(红松、紫椴)的生物量,但要保持较高的总生物量,仍需要降低目前的采伐强度。     

Understorey vegetation development in North Finnish Picea forests after disturbance: re‐analysis of Sirén's data

Abstract. Sirén (1955) studied understorey species composition, tree stand properties and humus‐layer thickness in 64 unlogged forest stands on topographically and pedologically comparable sites. The stands were of even age (6 – 300 yr), stocked with the first or second tree generation after wildfire. The view of Sirén and several authors after him, that the vegetation of old‐growth boreal Picea forests is homogeneous on a broad scale, was examined by applying, in parallel, the partial variants of two ordination methods (DCA and PCA) to Sirén's vegetation data. Two main vegetation gradients were found: a major gradient running from recently burnt plots with prominence of pioneer species to plots with stand age > 100 yr, a well stocked tree layer and a thick humus layer, dominance of feather‐mosses and ample occurrence of shade‐tolerant as well as light‐preferring vascular plant species, and a second gradient along which first‐ and second‐generation plots segregate. The more prominent element of Betula trees in first‐ than in second‐generation stands < 100 yr contributed to the latter. A minor third gradient related to humus‐layer thickness was recovered by partial DCA only. The main vegetation gradient reappeared in separate ordinations of data from 47 mature forest stands (> 100 yr), but without being correlated with forest age. Variation among mature‐forest stands in the importance of pioneer species is considered mainly to be brought about by fine‐scale disturbance processes such as tree uprooting. Increasing importance of factors operating on within‐stand scales [development of a varied gap structure and stronger gradients in tree influence (radiation at ground level), soil moisture, soil depth and nutrient availability] with time is also reflected in the second and third mature‐forest ordination axes. Possible implications of the results for conservation of biological diversity and monitoring of changes in boreal forests are discussed.     

Forest and Landscape Structure as Predictors of Capercaillie Occurrence

ABSTRACT Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) is a large, endangered forest grouse species with narrow habitat preferences and large spatial requirements that make it susceptible to habitat changes at different spatial scales. Our aim was to evaluate the relative power of variables relating to forest versus landscape structure in predicting capercaillie occurrence at different spatial scales. We investigated capercaillie-habitat relationships at the scales of forest stand and forest-stand mosaic in 2 Swiss regions. We assessed forest structure from aerial photographs in 52 study plots each 5 km². We classified plots into one of 3 categories denoting the observed local population trend (stable, declining, extinct), and we compared forest structure between categories. At the stand scale, we used presence-absence data for grid cells within the plots to build predictive habitat models based on logistic regression. At this scale, habitat models that included only variables relating to forest structure explained the occurrence of capercaillie only in part, whereas variables selected by the models differed between regions. Including variables relating to landscape features improved the models significantly. At the scale of stand mosaic, variables describing forest structure (e.g., mean canopy cover, proportion of open forest, and proportion of multistoried forest) differed between plot categories. We conclude that small-scale forest structure has limited power to predict capercaillie occurrence at the stand scale, but that it explains well at the scale of the stand mosaic. Including variables for landscape structure improves predictions at the forest-stand scale. Habitat models built with data from one region cannot be expected to predict the species occurrence in other regions well. Thus, multiscale approaches are necessary to better understand species-habitat relationships. Our results can help regional authorities and forest-management planners to identify areas where suitable habitat for capercaillie is not available in the required proportion and, thus, where management actions are needed to improve habitat suitability.     

Dynamics in Central European near‐natural Abies‐Fagus forests: Does the mosaic‐cycle approach provide an appropriate model?

Question: The mosaic‐cycle concept of forest dynamics dominates in Central Europe. According to this concept intermediate‐scale disturbances only accelerate the forest break‐up under existing cycles of forest development. Is such an approach correct, or should new developmental cycles be elaborated for intermediate‐scale disturbances? Location: Near‐natural Abies alba ‐ Fagus sylvatica forests in the ?wiétokrzyski National Park in Central Poland. In these forests intermediate‐scale disturbances occurred between 1970 and 1990. Methods: Data were collected twice in areas surrounding 212 permanent sample points (in 1994 and 2004). Two increment cores were taken from 259 sample Abies trees. The effect of intermediate‐scale disturbances on radial increment of Abies was assessed. Probabilities of stand transition during a 10‐year period between individual stages and phases of development of the mixed forest were calculated. The development stages and phases were arranged into hypothetical succession series of successive changes. Results: In 1994 70 stands and in 2004, 47 stands representing stages and phases containing the older generation formed by trees > 100–150 years were found. Also, in 1994 142 and in 2004, 165 stands representing stages and phases containing the younger generations only, formed by trees < 100‐150 years, were recorded. Stages and phases containing only younger generations do not occur in the existing forest development cycle which does not consider the influence of intermediate‐scale disturbances separately. Two developmental cycles, which take into account the presence of the older generation and the younger generations only (under conditions of the occurrence of intermediate‐scale disturbances), are proposed. Conclusion: The mosaic‐cycle concept of forest dynamics can be used to analyse the dynamics of Central European near‐natural mixed‐species forests, but new developmental cycles should be elaborated for intermediate‐scale disturbances.     

Fine‐scale forest variability and biodiversity in the boreal mixedwood forest

Local spatial variation in species distributions is driven by a mix of abiotic and biotic factors, and understanding such hierarchical variation is important for conservation of biodiversity across larger scales. We sought to understand how variation in species composition of understory vascular plants, spiders, and carabid beetles is associated with concomitant spatial variation in forest structure on a 1‐ha permanent plot in a never‐cut mixedwood forest in central Alberta (Canada). Using correlations among dendrograms produced by cluster analysis we associated data about mapped distribution of all living and dead stems > 1 cm diameter at breast height with distributions of the three focal taxa sampled from regular grids across the plot. Variation in each of these species assemblages were significantly associated with several forest structure variables at various spatial scales, but the scale of the associations varied among assemblages. Variation in species richness and abundance was explained mostly by changes in basal area of trees across the plot; however, other variables (e.g. snag density and tree density) were also important, depending on assemblage. We conclude that fine‐scale habitat variation is important in structuring spatial distribution of the species of the forest floor, even within a relatively homogeneous natural forest. Thus, assessments that ignore within‐stand heterogeneity and management that ignores its maintenance will have limited utility as conservation measures for these taxa, which are major elements of forest biodiversity.     

大兴安岭呼中林区虫害与火干扰交互作用的长期模拟

虫害和林火是森林生态系统的两种主要干扰类型,各种干扰在大时空尺度上存在一定的交互作用.本文采用空间直观景观模型LANDIS模拟虫害和林火在300年内的交互作用.结果表明:虫害干扰降低了细可燃物载量,提高了模拟前期(0～100 a)和中期(100～200 a)的粗可燃物载量,降低了模拟前期和中期的林火频率,不同干扰预案模拟后期(200～300 a)火烧频率的结果比较接近;虫害干扰降低了模拟前期和后期的火烧强度,增加了模拟中期的火烧强度,提高了模拟中期的森林火险等级,降低了模拟前期和后期的火险等级.人类灭火可增加虫害的发生面积,因此建议森林管理部门采取适当的防虫措施,不可只注重灭火,可以采取可燃物去除和计划火烧等方式管理林火,促进森林生态系统的可持续发展.     

Spatial pattern of the threatened epiphytic bryophyte Neckera pennata at two scales in a fragmented boreal forest

The spatial pattern and occurrence of a threatened bryophyte, Neckera pennata. were studied in relation to the abundance and pattern of suitable substrate trees at two spatial scales: 1) in a 4 x 4 km fraction of fragmented, mostly managed southern boreal forest landscape, and 2) in an old-growth forest stand within this landscape, with abundant occurrence of suitable habitats. To explore in detail the spatial clustering of N. pennata at the forest stand scale, we applied a second order point process analysis based on the Ripley's K-function for binary point patterns, Neckera pennata proved to be a rare species in the studied landscape: it was found only on 31 Populus tremula trees. At the landscape scale, the distribution of the species was highly aggregated: the species occurred only within a 60 ha old-growth forest patch in the whole area. At the forest stand scale, N. pennata proved to be a widespread, randomly distributed species without any tendency towards aggregation. It was found on 19 Populus trees, which was only 1.5% of the total 1253 potential substrate trees within the inventory area. The species showed a statistically significant preference towards large trees. The future of the species in the study area is unclear due to 1) the very low population density and 2) the lack of regeneration of Populus within the protected old-growth forest area hosting the remaining population.     

Trade‐offs between carbon stocks and biodiversity in European temperate forests

Policies to mitigate climate change and biodiversity loss often assume that protecting carbon‐rich forests provides co‐benefits in terms of biodiversity, due to the spatial congruence of carbon stocks and biodiversity at biogeographic scales. However, it remains unclear whether this holds at the scales relevant for management, and particularly large knowledge gaps exist for temperate forests and for taxa other than trees. We built a comprehensive dataset of Central European temperate forest structure and multi‐taxonomic diversity (beetles, birds, bryophytes, fungi, lichens, and plants) across 352 plots. We used Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs) to assess the relationship between above‐ground live carbon stocks and (a) taxon‐specific richness, (b) a unified multidiversity index. We used Threshold Indicator Taxa ANalysis to explore individual species’ responses to changing above‐ground carbon stocks and to detect change‐points in species composition along the carbon‐stock gradient. Our results reveal an overall weak and highly variable relationship between richness and carbon stock at the stand scale, both for individual taxonomic groups and for multidiversity. Similarly, the proportion of win‐win and trade‐off species (i.e., species favored or disadvantaged by increasing carbon stock, respectively) varied substantially across taxa. Win‐win species gradually replaced trade‐off species with increasing carbon, without clear thresholds along the above‐ground carbon gradient, suggesting that community‐level surrogates (e.g., richness) might fail to detect critical changes in biodiversity. Collectively, our analyses highlight that leveraging co‐benefits between carbon and biodiversity in temperate forest may require stand‐scale management that prioritizes either biodiversity or carbon in order to maximize co‐benefits at broader scales. Importantly, this contrasts with tropical forests, where climate and biodiversity objectives can be integrated at the stand scale, thus highlighting the need for context‐specificity when managing for multiple objectives. Accounting for critical change‐points of target taxa can help to deal with this specificity, by defining a safe operating space to manipulate carbon while avoiding biodiversity losses.     

Sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) establishment in boreal forest: results of a transplantation experiment

Aim To evaluate whether seedlings of sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) can establish beyond the species northern range limit in adjacent boreal forest. Location The hardwood–boreal forest transition zone on the north‐east shore of Lake Superior, Ontario, Canada. Methods Seed fall of sugar maple was monitored for 5 years in a stand of this species at its northern range limit, and seed from this stand was transplanted to five micro‐habitat types in an adjacent boreal forest. The establishment and survival of sugar maple seedlings there, and in the seed‐source stand, was monitored for the following 7–11 years. Soil‐surface light levels were measured in both forest types. Results Most seed fell in the final year of monitoring, when c. 250 seeds m^?2 were recorded. First‐year seedling establishment rates in the maple stand, deriving from this mast seed year, was approximately double that deriving from seed transplanted to the boreal forest sites; this is tentatively attributed to seed predator satiation in the maple stand. However, subsequent seedling survivorship in the boreal forest was greater than that in the maple stand, resulting in comparable seedling densities by the end of 6 years. This difference is tentatively attributed to better illumination in the boreal forest sites, and canopy‐opening disturbances appear to be especially facilitative of seedling survival. Main conclusions There is no fundamental impediment to sugar maple seedlings establishing in boreal forest communities if climate warming occurs and seed is available. If management intervention is needed to accelerate seed availability in a rapidly warming boreal forest, then diffuse seed application to disturbed boreal forest sites during mast years of local boreal tree species is recommended as the most effective way of avoiding seed predation and increasing seedling survival.     

What is the role of disturbance in catalyzing spatial shifts in forest composition and tree species biomass under climate change?

Mounting evidence suggests that climate change will cause shifts of tree species range and abundance (biomass). Abundance changes under climate change are likely to occur prior to a detectable range shift. Disturbances are expected to directly affect tree species abundance and composition, and could profoundly influence tree species spatial distribution within a geographical region. However, how multiple disturbance regimes will interact with changing climate to alter the spatial distribution of species abundance remains unclear. We simulated such forest demographic processes using a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) parameterized with forest inventory data in the northeastern United States. Our study incorporated climate change under a high-emission future and disturbance regimes varying with gradients of intensities and spatial extents. The results suggest that disturbances catalyze changes in tree species abundance and composition under a changing climate, but the effects of disturbances differ by intensity and extent. Moderate disturbances and large extent disturbances have limited effects, while high-intensity disturbances accelerate changes by removing cohorts of mid- and late-successional species, creating opportunities for early-successional species. High-intensity disturbances result in the northern movement of early-successional species and the southern movement of late-successional species abundances. Our study is among the first to systematically investigate how disturbance extent and intensity interact to determine the spatial distribution of changes in species abundance and forest composition.