Thresholds of sea‐level rise rate and sea‐level rise acceleration rate in a vulnerable coastal wetland

Feedbacks among inundation, sediment trapping, and vegetation productivity help maintain coastal wetlands facing sea‐level rise (SLR ). However, when the SLR rate exceeds a threshold, coastal wetlands can collapse. Understanding the threshold helps address key challenges in ecology—nonlinear response of ecosystems to environmental change, promotes communication between ecologists and resource managers, and facilitates decision‐making in climate change policies. We studied the threshold of SLR rate and developed a new threshold of SLR acceleration rate on sustainability of coastal wetlands as SLR is likely to accelerate due to enhanced anthropogenic forces. Deriving these two thresholds depends on the temporal scale, the interaction of SLR with other environmental factors, and landscape metrics, which have not been fully accounted for before this study. We chose a representative marine‐dominated estuary in the northern Gulf of Mexico, Grand Bay in Mississippi, to test the concept of SLR thresholds. We developed a mechanistic model to simulate wetland change and then derived the SLR thresholds for Grand Bay. The model results show that the threshold of SLR rate in Grand Bay is 11.9 mm/year for 2050, and it drops to 8.4 mm/year for 2100 using total wetland area as a landscape metric. The corresponding SLR acceleration rate thresholds are 3.02 × 10^?4 m/year² and 9.62 × 10^?5 m/year² for 2050 and 2100, respectively. The newly developed SLR acceleration rate threshold can help quantify the temporal lag before the rapid decline in wetland area becomes evident after the SLR rate threshold is exceeded, and cumulative SLR a wetland can adapt to under the SLR acceleration scenarios. Based on the thresholds, SLR that will adversely impact the coastal wetlands in Grand Bay by 2100 will fall within the likely range of SLR under a high warming scenario (RCP 8.5), highlighting the need to avoid RCP 8.5 to preserve these marshes.     

Vulnerability of terrestrial island vertebrates to projected sea‐level rise

Sea‐level rise (SLR) from global warming may have severe consequences for biodiversity; however, a baseline, broad‐scale assessment of the potential consequences of SLR for island biodiversity is lacking. Here, we quantify area loss for over 12 900 islands and over 3000 terrestrial vertebrates in the Pacific and Southeast Asia under three different SLR scenarios (1 m, 3 m and 6 m). We used very fine‐grained elevation information, which offered >100 times greater spatial detail than previous analyses and allowed us to evaluate thousands of hitherto not assessed small islands. Depending on the SLR scenario, we estimate that 15–62% of islands in our study region will be completely inundated and 19–24% will lose 50–99% of their area. Overall, we project that between 1% and 9% of the total island area in our study region may be lost. We find that Pacific species are 2–3 times more vulnerable than those in the Indomalayan or Australasian region and risk losing 4–22% of range area (1–6 m SLR). Species already listed as threatened by IUCN are particularly vulnerable compared with non‐threatened species. Under a simple area loss–species loss proportionality assumption, we estimate that 37 island group endemic species in this region risk complete inundation of their current global distribution in the 1 m SLR scenario that is widely anticipated for this century (and 118 species under 3 m SLR). Our analysis provides a first, broad‐scale estimate of the potential consequences of SLR for island biodiversity and our findings confirm that islands are extremely vulnerable to sea‐level rise even within this century.     

Drought‐induced saltwater incursion leads to increased wetland nitrogen export

Coastal wetlands have the capacity to retain and denitrify large quantities of reactive nitrogen (N), making them important in attenuating increased anthropogenic N flux to coastal ecosystems. The ability of coastal wetlands to retain and transform N is being reduced by wetland losses resulting from land development. Nitrogen retention in coastal wetlands is further threatened by the increasing frequency and spatial extent of saltwater inundation in historically freshwater ecosystems, due to the combined effects of dredging, declining river discharge to coastal areas due to human water use, increased drought frequency, and accelerating sea‐level rise. Because saltwater incursion may affect N cycling through multiple mechanisms, the impacts of salinization on coastal freshwater wetland N retention and transformation are not well understood. Here, we show that repeated annual saltwater incursion during late summer droughts in the coastal plain of North Carolina changed N export from organic to inorganic forms and led to a doubling of annual NH₄⁺ export from a 440 hectare former agricultural field undergoing wetland restoration. Soil solution NH₄⁺ concentrations in two mature wetlands also increased with salinization, but the magnitude of increase was smaller than that in the former agricultural field. Long‐term saltwater exposure experiments with intact soil columns demonstrated that much of the increase in reactive N released could be explained by exchange of salt cations with sediment NH₄⁺. Using these findings together with the predicted flooding of 1661 km² of wetlands along the NC coast by 2100, we estimate that saltwater incursion into these coastal areas could release up to 18 077 Mg N, or approximately half the annual NH₄⁺ flux of the Mississippi River. Our results suggest that saltwater incursion into coastal freshwater wetlands globally could lead to increased N loading to sensitive coastal waters.     

Towards a ‘Sea‐Level Sensitive’ dynamic model: impact of island ontogeny and glacio‐eustasy on global patterns of marine island biogeography

A synthetic model is presented to enlarge the evolutionary framework of the General Dynamic Model (GDM) and the Glacial Sensitive Model (GSM) of oceanic island biogeography from the terrestrial to the marine realm. The proposed ‘Sea‐Level Sensitive’ dynamic model (SLS) of marine island biogeography integrates historical and ecological biogeography with patterns of glacio‐eustasy, merging concepts from areas as diverse as taxonomy, biogeography, marine biology, volcanology, sedimentology, stratigraphy, palaeontology, geochronology and geomorphology. Fundamental to the SLS model is the dynamic variation of the littoral area of volcanic oceanic islands (defined as the area between the intertidal and the 50‐m isobath) in response to sea‐level oscillations driven by glacial–interglacial cycles. The following questions are considered by means of this revision: (i) what was the impact of (global) glacio‐eustatic sea‐level oscillations, particularly those of the Pleistocene glacial–interglacial episodes, on the littoral marine fauna and flora of volcanic oceanic islands? (ii) What are the main factors that explain the present littoral marine biodiversity on volcanic oceanic islands? (iii) How can differences in historical and ecological biogeography be reconciled, from a marine point of view? These questions are addressed by compiling the bathymetry of 11 Atlantic archipelagos/islands to obtain quantitative data regarding changes in the littoral area based on Pleistocene sea‐level oscillations, from 150 thousand years ago (ka) to the present. Within the framework of a model sensitive to changing sea levels, we discuss the principal factors affecting the geographical range of marine species; the relationships between modes of larval development, dispersal strategies and geographical range; the relationships between times of speciation, modes of larval development, ecological zonation and geographical range; the influence of sea‐surface temperatures and latitude on littoral marine species diversity; the effect of eustatic sea‐level changes and their impact on the littoral marine biota; island marine species–area relationships; and finally, the physical effects of island ontogeny and its associated submarine topography and marine substrate on littoral biota. Based on the SLS dynamic model, we offer a number of predictions for tropical, subtropical and temperate volcanic oceanic islands on how rates of immigration, colonization, in‐situ speciation, local disappearance, and extinction interact and affect the marine biodiversity around islands during glacials and interglacials, thus allowing future testing of the theory.     

High‐resolution tide projections reveal extinction threshold in response to sea‐level rise

Sea‐level rise will affect coastal species worldwide, but models that aim to predict these effects are typically based on simple measures of sea level that do not capture its inherent complexity, especially variation over timescales shorter than 1 year. Coastal species might be most affected, however, by floods that exceed a critical threshold. The frequency and duration of such floods may be more important to population dynamics than mean measures of sea level. In particular, the potential for changes in the frequency and duration of flooding events to result in nonlinear population responses or biological thresholds merits further research, but may require that models incorporate greater resolution in sea level than is typically used. We created population simulations for a threatened songbird, the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus), in a region where sea level is predictable with high accuracy and precision. We show that incorporating the timing of semidiurnal high tide events throughout the breeding season, including how this timing is affected by mean sea‐level rise, predicts a reproductive threshold that is likely to cause a rapid demographic shift. This shift is likely to threaten the persistence of saltmarsh sparrows beyond 2060 and could cause extinction as soon as 2035. Neither extinction date nor the population trajectory was sensitive to the emissions scenarios underlying sea‐level projections, as most of the population decline occurred before scenarios diverge. Our results suggest that the variation and complexity of climate‐driven variables could be important for understanding the potential responses of coastal species to sea‐level rise, especially for species that rely on coastal areas for reproduction.     

Isolation of alkane‐degrading bacteria from deep‐sea Mediterranean sediments

Aims: To isolate and identify alkane‐degrading bacteria from deep‐sea superficial sediments sampled at a north‐western Mediterranean station. Methods and Results: Sediments from the water/sediment interface at a 2400 m depth were sampled with a multicorer at the ANTARES site off the French Mediterranean coast and were promptly enriched with Maya crude oil as the sole source of carbon and energy. Alkane‐degrading bacteria belonging to the genera Alcanivorax, Pseudomonas, Marinobacter, Rhodococcus and Clavibacter‐like were isolated, indicating that the same groups were potentially involved in hydrocarbon biodegradation in deep sea as in coastal waters. Conclusions: These results confirm that members of Alcanivorax are important obligate alkane degraders in deep‐sea environments and coexist with other degrading bacteria inhabiting the deep‐subsurface sediment of the Mediterranean. Significance and Impact of the Study: The results suggest that the isolates obtained have potential applications in bioremediation strategies in deep‐sea environments and highlight the need to identify specific piezophilic hydrocarbon‐degrading bacteria (HCB) from these environments.     

Cycles of coral reef ‘turn‐on’, rapid growth and ‘turn‐off’ over the past 8500 years: a context for understanding modern ecological states and trajectories

Human activities threaten reef ecosystems globally, forcing ecological change at rates and scales regarded as unprecedented in the Holocene. These changes are so profound that a cessation of reef accretion (reef ‘turn‐off’) and net erosion of reef structures is argued by many as the ultimate and imminent trajectory. Here, we use a regional scale reef growth dataset, based on 76 core records (constrained by 211 radiometric dates) from 22 reefs along and across the inner‐shelf of the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, to examine the timing of different phases of reef initiation (‘turn‐on’), growth and ‘turn‐off’ during the Holocene. This dataset delineates two temporally discrete episodes of reef‐building over the last 8500 years: the first associated with the Holocene transgression‐early highstand period [～8.5–5.5 k calibrated years bp (cal ybp )]; the second since ～2.3 k cal ybp . During both periods, reefs accreted rapidly to sea level before entering late evolutionary states – states naturally characterized by reduced coral cover and low accretion potential – and a clear hiatus occurs between these reef‐building episodes for which no records of reef initiation exist. These transitions mimic those projected under current environmental disturbance regimes, but have been driven entirely by natural forcing factors. Our results demonstrate that, even through the late Holocene, reef health and growth has fluctuated through cycles independent of anthropogenic forcing. Consequently, degraded reef states cannot de facto be considered to automatically reflect increased anthropogenic stress. Indeed, in many cases degraded or nonaccreting reef communities may reflect past reef growth histories (as dictated by reef growth–sea level interactions) as much as contemporary environmental change. Recognizing when changes in reef condition reflect these natural ‘turn‐on’– growth –‘turn‐off’ cycles and how they interact with on‐going human disturbance is critical for effective coral reef management and for understanding future reef ecological trajectories.     

Genomic tests of the species‐pump hypothesis: Recent island connectivity cycles drive population divergence but not speciation in Caribbean crickets across the Virgin Islands

Harnessing the power of genomic scans, we test the debated “species pump” hypothesis that implicates repeated cycles of island connectivity and isolation as drivers of divergence. This question has gone understudied given the limited resolution of past molecular markers for studying such dynamic phenomena. With an average of 32,000 SNPs from the genome of 136 individuals from 10 populations of a Caribbean flightless ground cricket species (Amphiacusta sanctaecrucis) and a complementary set of statistical approaches, we infer a stepping‐stone colonization model and high levels of genetic differentiation across the Virgin Islands, which have been periodically interconnected until 8 ka. Estimates of divergence times from models based on the site frequency spectrum coincide with a period of repeated connection and fragmentation of the islands at 75–130 ka. These results are consistent with a role of island connectivity cycles in promoting genomic divergence and indicate that the genetic distinctiveness of island populations has persisted despite subsequent and extended interisland connections identified from bathymetric data. We discuss these findings in the broader context of Caribbean biogeography, and more specifically why high levels of genomic divergence across the Virgin Islands associated with repeated connectivity cycles do not actually translate into species diversification.     

THE EFFECTS OF ULTRAVIOLET‐B RADIATION ON ANTARCTIC SEA‐ICE ALGAE1

The impacts of ultraviolet‐B radiation (UVB) on polar sea‐ice algal communities have not yet been demonstrated. We assess the impacts of UV on these communities using both laboratory experiments on algal isolates and by modification of the in situ spectral distribution of the under‐ice irradiance. In the latter experiment, filters were attached to the upper surface of the ice so that the algae were exposed in situ to treatments of ambient levels of PAR and UV radiation, ambient radiation minus UVB, and ambient radiation minus all UV. After 16 d, significant increases in chl a and cell numbers were recorded for all treatments, but there were no significant differences among the different treatments. Bottom‐ice algae exposed in vitro were considerably less tolerant to UVB than those in situ, but this tolerance improved when algae were retained within a solid block of ice. In addition, algae extracted from brine channels in the upper meter of sea ice and exposed to PAR and UVB in the laboratory were much more tolerant of high UVB doses than were any bottom‐ice isolates. This finding indicates that brine algae may be better adapted to high PAR and UVB than are bottom‐ice algae. The data indicate that the impact of increased levels of UVB resulting from springtime ozone depletion on Antarctic bottom‐ice communities is likely to be minimal. These algae are likely protected by strong UVB attenuation by the overlying ice and snow, by other inorganic and organic substances in the ice matrix, and by algal cells closer to the surface.     

The conservation value of elevation data accuracy and model sophistication in reserve design under sea‐level rise

Many studies have explored the value of using more sophisticated coastal impact models and higher resolution elevation data in sea‐level rise (SLR) adaptation planning. However, we know little about to what extent the improved models and data could actually lead to better conservation outcomes under SLR. This is important to know because high‐resolution data are likely to not be available in some data‐poor coastal areas in the world and running more complicated coastal impact models is relatively time‐consuming, expensive, and requires assistance by qualified experts and technicians. We address this research question in the context of identifying conservation priorities in response to SLR. Specifically, we investigated the conservation value of using more accurate light detection and ranging (Lidar)‐based digital elevation data and process‐based coastal land‐cover change models (Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model, SLAMM) to identify conservation priorities versus simple “bathtub” models based on the relatively coarse National Elevation Dataset (NED) in a coastal region of northeast Florida. We compared conservation outcomes identified by reserve design software (Zonation) using three different model dataset combinations (Bathtub–NED, Bathtub–Lidar, and SLAMM–Lidar). The comparisons show that the conservation priorities are significantly different with different combinations of coastal impact models and elevation dataset inputs. The research suggests that it is valuable to invest in more accurate coastal impact models and elevation datasets in SLR adaptive conservation planning because this model–dataset combination could improve conservation outcomes under SLR. Less accurate coastal impact models, including ones created using coarser Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data can still be useful when better data and models are not available or feasible, but results need to be appropriately assessed and communicated. A future research priority is to investigate how conservation priorities may vary among different SLR scenarios when different combinations of model‐data inputs are used.     

Managing for change: wetland transitions under sea‐level rise and outcomes for threatened species

Aim Global sea‐level rise (SLR) could be as much as 1.8 metres by 2100, which will impact coastal wetland communities and threatened species. We evaluated the likely outcomes of SLR for wetland communities using a process‐based simulation model and coupled this with a metapopulation model for a threatened native rodent (Xeromys myoides). Furthermore, we tested the amplified impacts of SLR, urban growth and introduced predators on X. myoides persistence. Location South‐east Queensland, Australia. Methods We adapted the Sea Level Affects Marshes Model to subtropical Australia. We used LiDAR elevation data, field data to parameterize surface accretion and shallow subsidence, and local knowledge to configure wetland transitions. SLR was simulated based on the IPCC B1 and A1FI scenarios, as well as the maximal limit of 1.8 m by 2100. Further, we coupled our demographic model to projected shifts in wetland habitat, and estimates of future wetland loss to urban expansion and feral cat (Felis catus) predation. Results Our models project a general decline in wetland communities under SLR, with a noted exception of mangroves. Under the A1FI scenario, SLR allows mangroves to migrate inland, with urban development acting as an obstruction in some areas. Mangrove expansion provides an unexpected benefit for dependent X. myoides populations, although the inclusion of predation and habitat loss due to urban development still suggests extirpation in c. 50 years. Main conclusions Through this case study, we illustrate the usefulness of process‐based SLR models in understanding outcomes for wetland communities and dependent species. Our models will underscore decision‐making in a dynamic system, with global applications for urban planning, conservation prioritization and wildlife management.     

Assessing climate change associated sea‐level rise impacts on sea turtle nesting beaches using drones,photogrammetry and a novel GPS system

Climate change associated sea‐level rise (SLR) is expected to have profound impacts on coastal areas, affecting many species, including sea turtles which depend on these habitats for egg incubation. Being able to accurately model beach topography using digital terrain models (DTMs) is therefore crucial to project SLR impacts and develop effective conservation strategies. Traditional survey methods are typically low‐cost with low accuracy or high‐cost with high accuracy. We present a novel combination of drone‐based photogrammetry and a low‐cost and portable real‐time kinematic (RTK) GPS to create DTMs which are highly accurate (<10 cm error) and visually realistic. This methodology is ideal for surveying coastal sites, can be broadly applied to other species and habitats, and is a relevant tool in supporting the development of Specially Protected Areas. Here, we applied this method as a case‐study to project three SLR scenarios (0.48, 0.63 and 1.20 m) and assess the future vulnerability and viability of a key nesting habitat for sympatric loggerhead (Caretta caretta) and green turtle (Chelonia mydas) at a key rookery in the Mediterranean. We combined the DTM with 5 years of nest survey data describing location and clutch depth, to identify (a) regions with highest nest densities, (b) nest elevation by species and beach, and (c) estimated proportion of nests inundated under each SLR scenario. On average, green turtles nested at higher elevations than loggerheads (1.8 m vs. 1.32 m, respectively). However, because green turtles dig deeper nests than loggerheads (0.76 m vs. 0.50 m, respectively), these were at similar risk of inundation. For a SLR of 1.2 m, we estimated a loss of 67.3% for loggerhead turtle nests and 59.1% for green turtle nests. Existing natural and artificial barriers may affect the ability of these nesting habitats to remain suitable for nesting through beach migration.     

Impacts of a half century of sea‐level rise and development on an endangered mammal

The extraordinary growth of human populations and development in coastal areas over the last half century has eliminated and degraded coastal habitats and threatened the persistence of associated wildlife. Moreover, human‐induced sea‐level rise (SLR) is projected to further eliminate and alter the same coastal ecosystems, especially low‐lying regions. Whereas habitat loss and wildlife population declines from development are well documented, contemporary SLR has not yet been implicated in declines of coastal faunal populations. In addition, the projection of severe synergistic impacts from the combination of development and SLR is well described, yet the scientific literature offers little empirical evidence of the influence of these forces on coastal wildlife. Analysis of aerial photographs from 1959 to 2006 provided evidence of a 64% net loss of the endangered Lower Keys marsh rabbit's (Sylvilagus palustris hefneri; LKMR) habitat, the majority due to SLR (>48%). Furthermore, there was a strong negative relationship between the proportion of development per island and the amount of new habitat formed. Islands with modest development (less than 8% of land area) saw formation of new areas of marsh vegetation suitable for rabbits, whereas islands with 8% or more of their lands developed between 1959 and 2006 saw little to no addition of LKMR habitat. Only 8% of habitat loss was directly due to conversion to impervious surfaces, indicating that the greatest threats from development were indirect, including blocking of the inland migration of habitat triggered by SLR. Our results were consistent with an ongoing squeeze of coastal ecosystems between rising seas and development as a threat to LKMR habitat, which raises concern for a wide variety of coastal species. Our results provide evidence that SLR has become a contemporary conservation concern, one that is exacerbated by development, and expected to increase in magnitude as ocean waters continue to rise.     

Atomic‐Level Reactive Sites for Semiconductor‐Based Photocatalytic CO2 Reduction

Photocatalytic CO₂ reduction is an effective means to generate renewable energy. It involves redox reactions, reduction of CO₂ and oxidation of water, that leads to the production of solar fuel. Significant research effort has therefore been made to develop inexpensive and practically sustainable semiconductor‐based photocatalysts. The exploration of atomic‐level active sites on the surface of semiconductors can result in an improved understanding of the mechanism of CO₂ photoreduction. This can be applied to the design and synthesis of efficient photocatalysts. In this review, atomic‐level reactive sites are classified into four types: vacancies, single atoms, surface functional groups, and frustrated Lewis pairs (FLPs). These different photocatalytic reactive sites are shown to have varied affinity to reactants, intermediates, and products. This changes pathways for CO₂ reduction and significantly impacts catalytic activity and selectivity. The design of a photocatalyst from an atomic‐level perspective can therefore be used to maximize atomic utilization efficiency and lead to a high selectivity. The prospects for fabrication of effective photocatalysts based on an in‐depth understanding are highlighted.