Warming experiments elucidate the drivers of observed directional changes in tundra vegetation

Few studies have clearly linked long‐term monitoring with in situ experiments to clarify potential drivers of observed change at a given site. This is especially necessary when findings from a site are applied to a much broader geographic area. Here, we document vegetation change at Barrow and Atqasuk, Alaska, occurring naturally and due to experimental warming over nearly two decades. An examination of plant cover, canopy height, and community indices showed more significant differences between years than due to experimental warming. However, changes with warming were more consistent than changes between years and were cumulative in many cases. Most cases of directional change observed in the control plots over time corresponded with a directional change in response to experimental warming. These included increases in canopy height and decreases in lichen cover. Experimental warming resulted in additional increases in evergreen shrub cover and decreases in diversity and bryophyte cover. This study suggests that the directional changes occurring at the sites are primarily due to warming and indicates that further changes are likely in the next two decades if the regional warming trend continues. These findings provide an example of the utility of coupling in situ experiments with long‐term monitoring to accurately document vegetation change in response to global change and to identify the underlying mechanisms driving observed changes.     

A global perspective of ground level, ‘ambient’ carbon dioxide for assessing the response of plants to atmospheric CO2

For most studies involving the response of plants to future concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), a current concentration of 360–370 μatm is assumed, based on recent data obtained from the Mauna Loa observatory. In the present study, average seasonal diurnal values of ambient CO₂ obtained at ground level from three global locations (Australia, Japan and the USA) indicated that the average CO₂ (at canopy height) can vary from over 500 μatm at night to 350 μatm during the day with average 24‐h values ranging from 390 to 465 μatm. At all sites sampled, ambient CO₂ rose to a maximum value during the pre‐dawn period (03.00–06.00 hours); at sunrise, CO₂ remained elevated for several hours before declining to a steady‐state concentration between 350 and 400 μatm by mid‐morning (08.00–10.00 hours). Responses of plant growth to simulations of the observed variation of in situ CO₂ were compared to growth at a constant CO₂ concentration in controlled environment chambers. Three diurnal patterns were used (constant 370 μatm CO₂, constant 370 during the day (07.00–19.00 hours), high CO₂ (500 μatm) at night; or, high CO₂ (500 μatm) at night and during the early morning (07.00–09.00 hours) decreasing to 370 μatm by 10.00 hours). Three plant species ? soybean (Glycine max, L (Merr.), velvetleaf (Abutilon theophrasti L.) and tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum L.) ? were grown in each of these environments. For soybean, high night‐time CO₂ resulted in a significant increase in net assimilation rate (NAR), plant growth, leaf area and biomass relative to a constant ambient value of CO₂ by 29 days after sowing. Significant increases in NAR for all three species, and significant increases in leaf area, growth and total biomass for two of the three C3 species tested (velvetleaf and soybean) were also observed after 29 days post sowing for the high night/early morning diurnal pattern of CO₂. Data from these experiments suggest that the ambient CO₂ concentration experienced by some plants is higher than the Mauna Loa average, and that growth of some agricultural species at in situ CO₂ levels can differ significantly from the constant CO₂ value used as a control in many CO₂ experiments. This suggests that a reassessment of control conditions used to quantify the response of plants to future, elevated CO₂ may be required.     

Changes in the range of the medicinal herb Eriocaulon buergerianum Körnicke. (Eriocaulaceae) under climate change

• Eriocaulon buergerianum Körnicke. (Eriocaulaceae) is one of the most common and least expensive herbal medicines for eye disease. This species is facing potential threats from climate change. Insufficient biogeographic knowledge of this plant species can hinder its effective management for long‐term population survival.
• We integrated ecological niche modelling (Biomod2) with 70 records of E. buergerianum and eight environmental variables to estimate changes in distribution over time. A core area Zonation algorithm was introduced to identify conservation priority areas.
• Our results indicate that the range of E. buergerianum will likely decrease in the future: the overall range change on average is ?44.36 ± 21.56% (?3.70% to ?77.73%); values of range loss and range gain are 45.79 ± 20.30% (9.29–78.19%) and 1.43 ± 1.53% (0.18–5.59%), respectively. According to conservation priority analysis, the mandatory reserve (top 5%), negotiable reserve (0.95–0.9) and partial reserve (0.9–0.8) areas are 19,799, 19,799 and 39,597 km², respectively. The areas identified as conservation priority are located in the southeast, especially in northern Taiwan and the Wuyi Mountains.
• Based on these results, we suggest a re‐evaluation of the threatened status of this species, with a potential upgrade to the vulnerable (VU) category. To overcome the adverse conditions faced by populations of E. buergerianum in China, we propose a multi‐faceted conservation strategy involving more complete resource assessment, a monitoring system, medical research focused on revealing medicinal components or substitutes, and a regional development plan that considers both wildlife and socio‐economic issues.

     

Modelling as a tool for analysing the temperature‐dependent future of the Colorado potato beetle in Europe

A warmer climate may increase the risk of attacks by insect pests on agricultural crops, and questions on how to adapt management practice have created a need for impact models. Phenological models driven by climate data can be used for assessing the potential distribution and voltinism of different insect species, but the quality of the simulations is influenced by a range of uncertainties. In this study, we model the temperature‐dependent activity and development of the Colorado potato beetle, and analyse the influence of uncertainty associated with parameterization of temperature and day length response. We found that the developmental threshold has a major impact on the simulated number of generations per year. Little is known about local adaptations and individual variations, but the use of an upper and a lower developmental threshold gave an indication on the potential variation. The day length conditions triggering diapause are known only for a few populations. We used gridded observed temperature data to estimate local adaptations, hypothesizing that cold autumns can leave a footprint in the population genetics by low survival of individuals not reaching the adult stage before winter. Our study indicated that the potential selection pressure caused by climate conditions varies between European regions. Provided that there is enough genetic variation, a local adaption at the northern distribution limit would reduce the number of unsuccessful initiations and thereby increase the potential for spreading to areas currently not infested. The simulations of the impact model were highly sensitive to biases in climate model data, i.e. systematic deviations in comparison with observed weather, highlightening the need of improved performance of regional climate models. Even a moderate temperature increase could change the voltinism of Leptinotarsa decemlineata in Europe, but knowledge on agricultural practice and strategies for countermeasures is needed to evaluate changes in risk of attacks.     

Climate hindcasts: exploring the disjunct distribution of Diopatra biscayensis

The ecosystem engineer onuphid polychaete Diopatra biscayensis has a continuous population in the Bay of Biscay from the Cantabria coast in Spain to southern Brittany in France. A group of disjunct populations also are found in the English Channel, separated from the Biscay population by more than 400 coastal kilometers. It remains unclear whether D. biscayensis is native to the Bay of Biscay; it is also debated whether the disjunct populations in the English Channel are relics of a formerly continuous population, or the product of recent introductions through aquaculture. Here, we use climate hindcasts to explore hypotheses about the D. biscayensis historical distribution in Europe. If D. biscayensis is native, its range would have been restricted to southern Iberia and the Mediterranean during the Last Glacial Maximum (21,000 BP). However, the species is completely absent from both regions today, further supporting its interpretation as a non‐native species. If it was historically present in Europe, the climate hindcasts are congruent with range contraction in the Last Glacial Maximum (21,000 BP), expansion in the Mid‐Holocene Warm Period (6000 BP), and contraction again in the past 1000 years (850–1850), prior to the first reports of D. biscayensis on the Spanish and French Atlantic coasts. However, the simulations do not support there being climatic refugia along the English Channel coast that would account for the existence of relic populations. Taken together, the evidence suggests that D. biscayensis has been introduced to the Bay of Biscay, and that disjunct populations in the English Channel are the result of recent transport through human activities, perhaps aquaculture.     

Corals in the hottest reefs in the world exhibit symbiont fidelity not flexibility

Reef‐building corals are at risk of extinction from ocean warming. While some corals can enhance their thermal limits by associating with dinoflagellate photosymbionts of superior stress tolerance, the extent to which symbiont communities will reorganize under increased warming pressure remains unclear. Here we show that corals in the hottest reefs in the world in the Persian Gulf maintain associations with the same symbionts across 1.5 years despite extreme seasonal warming and acute heat stress (≥35°C). Persian Gulf corals predominantly associated with Cladocopium (clade C) and most also hosted Symbiodinium (clade A) and/or Durusdinium (clade D). This is in contrast to the neighbouring and milder Oman Sea, where corals associated with Durusdinium and only a minority hosted background levels of Cladocopium. During acute heat stress, the higher prevalence of Symbiodinium and Durusdinium in bleached versus nonbleached Persian Gulf corals indicates that genotypes of these background genera did not confer bleaching resistance. Within symbiont genera, the majority of ITS2 rDNA type profiles were unique to their respective coral species, confirming the existence of host‐specific symbiont lineages. Notably, further differentiation among Persian Gulf sites demonstrates that symbiont populations are either isolated or specialized over tens to hundreds of kilometres. Thermal tolerance across coral species was associated with the prevalence of a single ITS2 intragenomic sequence variant (C3gulf), definitive of the Cladocopium thermophilum group. The abundance of C3gulf was highest in bleaching‐resistant corals and at warmer sites, potentially indicating a specific symbiont genotype (or set of genotypes) that may play a role in thermal tolerance that warrants further investigation. Together, our findings indicate that co‐evolution of host–Symbiodiniaceae partnerships favours fidelity rather than flexibility in extreme environments and under future warming.     

Using genetic variation to infer associations with climate in the common frog,Rana temporaria

Recent and historical species' associations with climate can be inferred using molecular markers. This knowledge of population and species‐level responses to climatic variables can then be used to predict the potential consequences of ongoing climate change. The aim of this study was to predict responses of Rana temporaria to environmental change in Scotland by inferring historical and contemporary patterns of gene flow in relation to current variation in local thermal conditions. We first inferred colonization patterns within Europe following the last glacial maximum by combining new and previously published mitochondrial DNA sequences. We found that sequences from our Scottish samples were identical to (92%), or clustered with, the common haplotype previously identified from Western Europe. This clade showed very low mitochondrial variation, which did not allow inference of historical colonization routes but did allow interpretation of patterns of current fine‐scale population structure without consideration of confounding historical variation. Second, we assessed fine‐scale microsatellite‐based patterns of genetic variation in relation to current altitudinal temperature gradients. No population structure was found within altitudinal gradients (average F_ST = 0.02), despite a mean annual temperature difference of 4.5 °C between low‐ and high‐altitude sites. Levels of genetic diversity were considerable and did not vary between sites. The panmictic population structure observed, even along temperature gradients, is a potentially positive sign for R. temporaria persistence in Scotland in the face of a changing climate. This study demonstrates that within taxonomic groups, thought to be at high risk from environmental change, levels of vulnerability can vary, even within species.     

The relative availability of inorganic carbon and inorganic nitrogen influences the response of the dinoflagellate Protoceratium reticulatum to elevated CO2

This work originates from three facts: (i) changes in CO₂ availability influence metabolic processes in algal cells; (ii) Spatial and temporal variations of nitrogen availability cause repercussions on phytoplankton physiology; (iii) Growth and cell composition are dependent on the stoichiometry of nutritional resources. In this study, we assess whether the impact of rising pCO₂ is influenced by N availability, through the impact that it would have on the C/N stoichiometry, in conditions of N sufficiency. Our experiments used the dinoflagellate Protoceratium reticulatum, which we cultured under three CO₂ regimes (400, 1,000, and 5,000 ppmv, pH of 8.1) and either variable (the NO₃^? concentration was always 2.5 mmol · L^?1) or constant (NO₃^? concentration varied to maintain the same C_i/NO₃^? ratio at all pCO₂) C_i/NO₃^? ratio. Regardless of N availability, cells had higher specific growth rates, but lower cell dry weight and C and N quotas, at elevated CO₂. The carbohydrate pool size and the C/N was unaltered in all treatments. The lipid content only decreased at high pCO₂ at constant C_i/NO₃^? ratio. In the variable C_i/NO₃^? conditions, the relative abundance of Rubisco (and other proteins) also changed; this did not occur at constant C_i/NO₃^?. Thus, the biomass quality of P. reticulatum for grazers was affected by the C_i/NO₃^? ratio in the environment and not only by the pCO₂, both with respect to the size of the main organic pools and the composition of the expressed proteome.     

A model‐based quantitative assessment of the carbon benefits of introducing iLUC factors in the European Renewable Energy Directive

The European Commission has a mandate from the EU's Renewable Energy and Fuel Quality Directives to propose a methodology, consistent with the best available science, to address indirect land use change (iLUC). One proposed solution to the iLUC problem is the application of iLUC factors in European fuels policy – it is widely expected that should the EU adopt such iLUC factors, they would be based on iLUC modelling using the International Food Policy Research Institute's (IFPRI) MIRAGE model. Taking the iLUC factors from IFPRI MIRAGE as our central estimate, we use Monte Carlo analysis on a simple model of potential biofuel pathways for Europe to assess the likely average carbon saving from three possible European biofuel policy scenarios: no action on iLUC; raised GHG thresholds for direct emissions savings; and the introduction of iLUC factors. We find that without iLUC factors (or some other effective iLUC minimization approach) European biofuel mandates are unlikely to deliver significant GHG emissions benefits in 2020, and have a substantial probability of increasing net GHG emissions. In contrast, the implementation of iLUC factors is likely to significantly increase the carbon savings from EU biofuel policy. With iLUC factors, it is likely that most permitted pathways would conform to the Renewable Energy Directive requirement for a minimum 50% GHG reduction compared to fossil fuels.     

The distribution of the thermally tolerant symbiont lineage (Symbiodinium clade D) in corals from Hawaii: correlations with host and the history of ocean thermal stress

Spatially intimate symbioses, such as those between scleractinian corals and unicellular algae belonging to the genus Symbiodinium, can potentially adapt to changes in the environment by altering the taxonomic composition of their endosymbiont communities. We quantified the spatial relationship between the cumulative frequency of thermal stress anomalies (TSAs) and the taxonomic composition of Symbiodinium in the corals Montipora capitata, Porites lobata, and Porites compressa across the Hawaiian archipelago. Specifically, we investigated whether thermally tolerant clade D Symbiodinium was in greater abundance in corals from sites with high frequencies of TSAs. We recovered 2305 Symbiodinium ITS2 sequences from 242 coral colonies in lagoonal reef habitats at Pearl and Hermes Atoll, French Frigate Shoals, and Kaneohe Bay, Oahu in 2007. Sequences were grouped into 26 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) with 12 OTUs associated with Montipora and 21 with Porites. Both coral genera associated with Symbiodinium in clade C, and these co‐occurred with clade D in M. capitata and clade G in P. lobata. The latter represents the first report of clade G Symbiodinium in P. lobata. In M. capitata (but not Porites spp.), there was a significant correlation between the presence of Symbiodinium in clade D and a thermal history characterized by high cumulative frequency of TSAs. The endogenous community composition of Symbiodinium and an association with clade D symbionts after long‐term thermal disturbance appear strongly dependent on the taxa of the coral host.     

Role of host genetics and heat‐tolerant algal symbionts in sustaining populations of the endangered coral Orbicella faveolata in the Florida Keys with ocean warming

Identifying which factors lead to coral bleaching resistance is a priority given the global decline of coral reefs with ocean warming. During the second year of back‐to‐back bleaching events in the Florida Keys in 2014 and 2015, we characterized key environmental and biological factors associated with bleaching resilience in the threatened reef‐building coral Orbicella faveolata. Ten reefs (five inshore, five offshore, 179 corals total) were sampled during bleaching (September 2015) and recovery (May 2016). Corals were genotyped with 2bRAD and profiled for algal symbiont abundance and type. O. faveolata at the inshore sites, despite higher temperatures, demonstrated significantly higher bleaching resistance and better recovery compared to offshore. The thermotolerant Durusdinium trenchii (formerly Symbiondinium trenchii) was the dominant endosymbiont type region‐wide during initial (78.0% of corals sampled) and final (77.2%) sampling; >90% of the nonbleached corals were dominated by D. trenchii. 2bRAD host genotyping found no genetic structure among reefs, but inshore sites showed a high level of clonality. While none of the measured environmental parameters were correlated with bleaching, 71% of variation in bleaching resistance and 73% of variation in the proportion of D. trenchii was attributable to differences between genets, highlighting the leading role of genetics in shaping natural bleaching patterns. Notably, D. trenchii was rarely dominant in O. faveolata from the Florida Keys in previous studies, even during bleaching. The region‐wide high abundance of D. trenchii was likely driven by repeated bleaching associated with the two warmest years on record for the Florida Keys (2014 and 2015). On inshore reefs in the Upper Florida Keys, O. faveolata was most abundant, had the highest bleaching resistance, and contained the most corals dominated by D. trenchii, illustrating a causal link between heat tolerance and ecosystem resilience with global change.     

Modelling lake cyanobacterial blooms: Disentangling the climate‐driven impacts of changing mixed depth and water temperature

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Heterotrophy mitigates the response of the temperate coral Oculina arbuscula to temperature stress

Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration have caused global average sea surface temperature (SST) to increase by approximately 0.11°C per decade between 1971 and 2010 – a trend that is projected to continue through the 21st century. A multitude of research studies have demonstrated that increased SSTs compromise the coral holobiont (cnidarian host and its symbiotic algae) by reducing both host calcification and symbiont density, among other variables. However, we still do not fully understand the role of heterotrophy in the response of the coral holobiont to elevated temperature, particularly for temperate corals. Here, we conducted a pair of independent experiments to investigate the influence of heterotrophy on the response of the temperate scleractinian coral Oculina arbuscula to thermal stress. Colonies of O. arbuscula from Radio Island, North Carolina, were exposed to four feeding treatments (zero, low, moderate, and high concentrations of newly hatched Artemia sp. nauplii) across two independent temperature experiments (average annual SST (20°C) and average summer temperature (28°C) for the interval 2005–2012) to quantify the effects of heterotrophy on coral skeletal growth and symbiont density. Results suggest that heterotrophy mitigated both reduced skeletal growth and decreased symbiont density observed for unfed corals reared at 28°C. This study highlights the importance of heterotrophy in maintaining coral holobiont fitness under thermal stress and has important implications for the interpretation of coral response to climate change.     

Climate and host plant availability impact the future distribution of the bean leaf beetle (Cerotoma trifurcata)

The bean leaf beetle, Cerotoma trifurcata, has become a major pest of soybean throughout its North American range. With a changing climate, there is the potential for this pest to further expand its distribution and become an increasingly severe pest in certain regions. To examine this possibility, we developed bioclimatic envelope models for both the bean leaf beetle, and its most important agronomic host plant, soybean (Glycine max). These two models were combined to examine the potential future pest status of the beetle using climate change projections from multiple general circulation models (GCMs) and climate change scenarios. Despite the broad tolerances of soybean, incorporation of host plant availability substantially decreased the suitable and favourable areas for the bean leaf beetle as compared to an evaluation based solely on the climate envelope of the beetle, demonstrating the importance of incorporating biotic interactions in these predictions. The use of multiple GCM–scenario combinations also revealed differences in predictions depending on the choice of GCM, with scenario choice having less of an impact. While the Norwegian model predicted little northward expansion of the beetle from its current northern range limit of southern Ontario and overall decreases in suitable and favourable areas over time, the Canadian and Russian models predict that much of Ontario and Quebec will become suitable for the beetle in the future, as well as Manitoba under the Russian model. The Russian model also predicts expansion of the suitable and favourable areas for the beetle over time. Two predictions that do not depend on our choice of GCM include a decrease in suitability of the Mississippi Delta region and continued favourability of the southeastern United States.     

Variation in the diets of Japanese martens Martes melampus

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Insight into the photosynthetic apparatus in evergreen and deciduous European oaks during autumn senescence using OJIP fluorescence transient analysis

Climate change is one of the major issues nowadays, and Mediterranean broadleaf species have been suggested to fill possible future gaps created by climate change in Central European forests. To provide a scientific‐based foundation for such practical strategies, it is important to obtain a general idea about differences and similarities in the physiology of Central European and Mediterranean species. In the present study, we evaluated the onset of leaf senescence of a broad spectrum of oak species under the Central European climate in a common garden experiment. Degradation of the photosynthetic apparatus of evergreen (Quercus ilex, Q. suber), semi‐evergreen (Q. × turneri, Q. × hispanica) and deciduous oaks (Q. robur, Q. cerris, Q. frainetto, Q. pubescens) was monitored as chlorophyll content and analysed chlorophyll fluorescence induction transients. In the deciduous species, a significant decline in chlorophyll content was observed during autumn/winter, with Q. pubescens showing the slowest decline. Analysis of fluorescence induction transients revealed a significant decline in quantum efficiency of the primary photochemistry and reaction centre density and later, a decrease in quantum efficiency of end acceptor reduction. Alterations in fluorescence parameters were compared to the decline in chlorophyll content, which occurred much more slowly than expected from the fluorescence data. The evergreen species showed no decline in chlorophyll content, nor different chlorophyll a fluorescence induction behaviour despite temperature falling below 0 °C. The hybrids showed intermediate behaviour between their parental evergreen and deciduous taxa.     

Early response of the platypus to climate warming

Combining a climatic envelope modelling technique with more than two centuries (1800–2009) of distribution records has revealed the effects of a changing climate on the egg‐laying monotreme, the platypus, Ornithorhynchus anatinus. We show that the main factor associated with platypus occurrence switched from aquatic habitat availability (estimated by rainfall) to thermal tolerances (estimated by annual maximum temperature) in the 1960s. This correlates directly with the change in the annual maximum temperature anomaly from cooler to warmer conditions in southeastern Australia. Modelling of platypus habitat under emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1 and B2) revealed large decreases (>30%) in thermally suitable habitat by 2070. This reduction, compounded by increasing demands for water for agriculture and potable use, suggests that there is real cause for concern over the future status of this species, and highlights the need for restoration of thermal refugia within the platypus’ modelled range.