Red panda fine‐scale habitat selection along a Central Himalayan longitudinal gradient

Red panda Ailurus fulgens, an endangered habitat specialist, inhabits a narrow distribution range in bamboo abundance forests along mountain slopes in the Himalaya and Hengduan Mountains. However, their habitat use may be different in places with different longitudinal environmental gradients, climatic regimes, and microclimate. This study aimed to determine the habitat variables affecting red panda distribution across different longitudinal gradients through a multivariate analysis. We studied habitat selection patterns along the longitudinal gradient in Nepal's Himalaya which is grouped into the eastern, central, and western complexes. We collected data on red panda presence and habitat variables (e.g., tree richness, canopy cover, bamboo abundance, water availability, tree diameter, tree height) by surveys along transects throughout the species’ potential range. We used a multimodal inference approach with a generalized linear model to test the relative importance of environmental variables. Although the study showed that bamboo abundance had a major influence, habitat selection was different across longitudinal zones. Both canopy cover and species richness were unimportant in eastern Nepal, but their influence increased progressively toward the west. Conversely, tree height showed a decreasing influence on habitat selection from Eastern to Western Nepal. Red panda's habitat selection revealed in this study corresponds to the uneven distribution of vegetation assemblages and the dry climatic gradient along the eastern‐western Himalayas which could be related to a need to conserve energy and thermoregulate. This study has further highlighted the need of importance of bamboo conservation and site‐specific conservation planning to ensure long‐term red panda conservation.     

Influence of within‐patch habitat quality on high‐Andean Polylepis bird abundance

Habitat restoration strategies for fragmented high Andean forest landscapes must consider the influence of within‐patch habitat quality on bird abundance. I examined vegetation and bird abundance at three locations within a highly fragmented Polylepis forest landscape in the Cordillera Vilcanota, southern Peru. Across the landscape, there was significant variation in the vegetation structure of Polylepis forest patches of different size categories, especially in terms of tree girth, tree height, tree density, and canopy vegetation structure. Principal Component Analysis extracted five factors of habitat quality, which together accounted for 74.2% of the variability within 15 habitat variables. Polylepis bird species differed in their responses to habitat quality but, overall, variation in Polylepis bird abundance was not fully captured by the range of habitat quality variables. Tall, dense vegetation cover was clearly important for 11 conservation‐important species, a high density of large trees was important for 10 species and primary forest ground cover was important for eight species. Habitat quality exhibited no significant influence on the abundance of only one species –Asthenes urubambensis. The abundance of seven species was associated with lower elevation forest, but only one species was associated with higher elevation forest. Management of habitat quality in large and medium remnant forest patches throughout the Cordillera Vilcanota, particularly in the 3800–4200 m elevation range, will be a cornerstone in ensuring the persistence of the majority of conservation‐important bird species populations.     

Microhabitat nest‐site selection by ducks in the boreal forest

The boreal forest is one of the North America’s most important breeding areas for ducks, but information about the nesting ecology of ducks in the region is limited. We collected microhabitat data related to vegetation structure and composition at 157 duck nests and paired random locations in Alberta’s boreal forest region from 2016 to 2018. We identified fine‐scale vegetation features selected by ducks for all nests, between nesting guilds, and among five species using conditional logistic regression. Ducks in the boreal forest selected nest sites with greater overhead and graminoid cover, but less forb cover than random sites. Characteristics of the nest sites of upland‐ and overwater‐nesting guilds differed, with species nesting in upland habitat selecting nests that provided greater shrub cover and less lateral concealment and species nesting over water selecting nests with less shrub cover. We examined the characteristics of nest sites of American Wigeon (Mareca americana), Blue‐winged Teal (Spatula discors), Green‐winged Teal (Anas crecca), Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), and Ring‐necked Ducks (Aythya collaris), and found differences among species that may facilitate species coexistence at a regional scale. Our results suggest that females of species nesting in upland habitat selected nest sites that optimized concealment from aerial predators while also allowing detection of and escape from terrestrial predators. Consequently, alteration in the composition and heterogeneity of vegetation and predator communities caused by climate change and industrial development in the boreal forest of Canada may affect the nest‐site selection strategies of boreal ducks.     

Legacy forest structure increases bird diversity and abundance in aging young forests

Many studies have demonstrated the importance of early‐successional forest habitat for breeding bird abundance, composition, and diversity. However, very few studies directly link measures of bird diversity, composition and abundance to measures of forest composition, and structure and their dynamic change over early succession. This study examines the relationships between breeding bird community composition and forest structure in regenerating broadleaf forests of southern New England, USA, separating the influences of ecological succession from retained stand structure. We conducted bird point counts and vegetation surveys across a chronosequence of forest stands that originated between 2 and 24 years previously in shelterwood timber harvests, a silvicultural method of regenerating oak‐mixed broadleaf forests. We distinguish between vegetation variables that relate to condition of forest regeneration and those that reflect legacy stand structure. Using principal components analyses, we confirmed the distinction between regeneration and legacy vegetation variables. We ran regression analysis to test for relationships between bird community variables, including nesting and foraging functional guild abundances, and vegetation variables. We confirmed these relationships with hierarchical partitioning. Our results demonstrate that regenerating and legacy vegetation correlate with bird community variables across stand phases and that the strength with which they drive bird community composition changes with forest succession. While measures of regeneration condition explain bird abundance and diversity variables during late initiation, legacy stand structure explains them during stem exclusion. Canopy cover, ground‐story diversity, and canopy structure diversity are the most powerful and consistent explanatory variables. Our results suggest that leaving varied legacy stand structure to promote habitat heterogeneity in shelterwood harvests contributes to greater bird community diversity. Interestingly, this is particularly important during the structurally depauperate phase of stem exclusion of young regenerating forests.     

Non‐neutrality in forest communities: evolutionary and ecological determinants of tree species abundance distributions

The unified neutral theory of biodiversity and biogeography provides a promising framework that can be used to integrate stochastic and ecological processes operating in ecological communities. Based on a mechanistic non‐neutral model that incorporates density‐dependent mortality, we evaluated the deviation from a neutral pattern in tree species abundance distributions and explored the signatures of historical and ecological processes that have shaped forest biomes. We compiled a dataset documenting species abundance distributions in 1168 plots encompassing 16 973 tree species across tropical, temperate, and boreal forests. We tested whether deviations from neutrality of species abundance distributions vary with climatic and historical conditions, and whether these patterns differ among regions. Non‐neutrality in species abundance distributions was ubiquitous in tropical, temperate, and boreal forests, and regional differences in patterns of non‐neutrality were significant between biomes. Species abundance evenness/unevenness caused by negative density‐dependent or abiotic filtering effects had no clear macro‐scale climatic drivers, although temperature was non‐linearly correlated with species abundance unevenness on a global scale. These findings were not significantly biased by heterogeneity of plot data (the differences of plot area, measurement size, species richness, and the number of individuals sampled). Therefore, our results suggest that environmental filtering is not universally increasing from warm tropical to cold boreal forests, but might affect differently tree species assembly between and within biomes. Ecological processes generating particularly dominant species in local communities might be idiosyncratic or region‐specific and may be associated with geography and climate. Our study illustrates that stochastic dynamical models enable the analysis of the interplay of historical and ecological processes that influence community assemblies and the dynamics of biodiversity.     

A wavelet‐based approach to evaluate the roles of structural and functional landscape heterogeneity in animal space use at multiple scales

The functional relationship between habitat utilization and landscape spatial heterogeneity is fundamental to understanding the spatial nature of animal distribution across scales. Although structural and functional properties of landscape spatial heterogeneity can have different consequences for animal species, few studies have explicitly considered both forms of heterogeneity, partly due to the lack of general methods for direct assessment of scale‐specific associations between variables. We present a wavelet‐based approach to evaluate the roles of structural and functional landscape spatial heterogeneity in animal space use at multiple spatial scales. As a case study, we examined scale‐specific space use patterns of American black bears Ursus americanus in response to structural and functional spatial heterogeneity as well as spatial patterns of vegetation age‐classes in a Canadian boreal forest. We found strong differences in the effects of structural and functional spatial heterogeneity and the scales at which they are associated with the patterns of habitat use by black bears. Functional heterogeneity alone affected space use at 800 and 1600‐m scales, but had significant effects when interacting with structural heterogeneity at 400, 800, and 1600‐m scales. Compared with male bears, female black bears were most sensitive to patterns of forage abundance at intermediate scales, or more specifically, in young and regenerating forests that provide abundant soft mast in boreal forests. Our study highlights the importance of accounting for scale‐dependent properties of (structural and functional) spatial heterogeneity in assessing the ecological effects of landscape components and the effectiveness of the wavelet transform technique in identifying such scale‐specific relationships.     

Tree growth variation in the tropical forest: understanding effects of temperature,rainfall and CO2

Tropical forest responses to climatic variability have important consequences for global carbon cycling, but are poorly understood. As empirical, correlative studies cannot disentangle the interactive effects of climatic variables on tree growth, we used a tree growth model (IBTREE) to unravel the climate effects on different physiological pathways and in turn on stem growth variation. We parameterized the model for canopy trees of Toona ciliata (Meliaceae) from a Thai monsoon forest and compared predicted and measured variation from a tree‐ring study over a 30‐year period. We used historical climatic variation of minimum and maximum day temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide (CO₂) in different combinations to estimate the contribution of each climate factor in explaining the inter‐annual variation in stem growth. Running the model with only variation in maximum temperature and rainfall yielded stem growth patterns that explained almost 70% of the observed inter‐annual variation in stem growth. Our results show that maximum temperature had a strong negative effect on the stem growth by increasing respiration, reducing stomatal conductance and thus mitigating a higher transpiration demand, and – to a lesser extent – by directly reducing photosynthesis. Although stem growth was rather weakly sensitive to rain, stem growth variation responded strongly and positively to rainfall variation owing to the strong inter‐annual fluctuations in rainfall. Minimum temperature and atmospheric CO₂ concentration did not significantly contribute to explaining the inter‐annual variation in stem growth. Our innovative approach – combining a simulation model with historical data on tree‐ring growth and climate – allowed disentangling the effects of strongly correlated climate variables on growth through different physiological pathways. Similar studies on different species and in different forest types are needed to further improve our understanding of the sensitivity of tropical tree growth to climatic variability and change.     

Avian richness and abundance in temperate Danish forests: tree variables important to birds and their conservation

Many studies on avian diversity and forest structure have focused onfiner scale forest variables such as foliage height diversity, foliagediversity, foliage density, vertical distribution of vegetation and horizontalvegetation density. From a conservation and forestry operational point of viewit would be of great interest if tree variables influenced directly by forestrymanagement decisions also had significant influence on avian richness andabundance. The species, age and size of a tree are examples of such treevariables. A great number of studies also have focused on avian diversityindices to reveal relationships with vegetation variables. However, it may bemore appropriate for foresters and conservation officers to operate withrichness and abundance measures directly, because indices complicateinterpretations on the relative importance of the two variables (richness andabundance) constituting the index. Fourteen managed temperate forests in Denmarkwere investigated for avian species richness and abundance and related tomeasures on different tree variables influenced directly by forestry managementdecisions. A rapid assessment method of avian richness and abundance wasemployed. It consisted of point-counts of bird richness and abundance within 1km² of forest. General linear models were tested byanalyses of variance statistics to reveal the tree variables most important toavian richness and abundance. It was found that more old trees, more treespecies and more tree size-classes correlated with more bird species andindividuals. However, some variation in bird richness and abundance was alsorelated to site quality and/or chance colonization. Moreover, it was shown thatthe guild of cavity-nesting birds correlated positively to age of tree stand.The potential number of bird species in Danish forest is similar to that innearly pristine forest in Poland, and much larger than that recorded in any ofthe forests investigated. Together with the results above, this indicates a highpotential for squeezing in more avian species in a higher quality forest from abiodiversity point of view. Modern Danish forestry affects tree variablesinfluenced directly by forestry management decisions. Such tree variables havegreat influence on avian richness and abundance, but simple measures in forestrypractices can be taken to enhance the conservation of bird richness andabundance.     

Short‐term effect of selection cutting in boreal balsam fir forest on cerambycid and scolytid beetles

The ecology and management of boreal forest ecosystems are drawing greater attention worldwide as their importance is being increasingly recognized for carbon sequestration or for harbouring the world's largest remaining intact forests. Selection cuts have been introduced as a more socially acceptable silvicultural method to improve the maintenance of habitat structure and functions as they mimic aspects of boreal forest succession dynamics. Many studies have shown that selection cutting helps maintaining arthropod communities in mature forests, but few have examined the increased risks of damage by bark‐ and wood‐boring insects in boreal forests of eastern North America. We used multidirectional flight‐interception traps to quantify the response of these beetles to 25 and 40% selection cutting in a balsam fir–white birch forest of Québec, Canada. The abundance and species number of both cerambycid and scolytid beetles were 5–6 times larger in selectively cut stands than in controls the year following treatments. Analyses revealed that bark‐ and wood‐boring beetles’ response was mostly associated with increased canopy openness in selectively cut stands (and sun‐exposed locations within them) and residual tree injuries caused by harvesting operations. These conditions attracted beetles such as Trypodendron lineatum (Scolytinae) and Rhagium inquisitor (Cerambycidae), two species known for their ability to attack weakened, dying and dead hosts. Most species were more abundant in selection cuts, except for Evodinus m. monticola (Cerambycidae) whose abundance was strongly reduced after treatment. Some beetles can have detrimental effects on residual trees and thus could reduce timber value, but most species found in treated stands do not represent a high risk for healthy trees. Thus, selection cuts do not seem favourable to the establishment of tree‐killing beetles. However, as they were found more active/abundant after selection cutting, it would be wise to further study their population dynamics over mid‐ and long‐term periods, along with the ecological and economic implications associated with this silvicultural treatment.     

Species richness of epiphytic bryophytes: drivers across scales on the edge of the Mediterranean

Spatial variation in species richness is one of the most frequently studied topics on macroecology. However, the relative importance of the factors affecting richness across scales and their influence on some groups of small‐sized organisms, such as bryophytes, remain unclear. We evaluate the relative importance of biogeographic region, climate, topography, forest structure and abundance in shaping epiphytic bryophyte richness at both local (forest) and sample (trunk) scale on the boundary between the Atlantic and Mediterranean regions in NW Spain. For that purpose we used simple, multiple and partial regressions, hierarchical partitioning and partial least squares path analyses. Although climatic variables related to water availability during spring and summer were the most important predictors of bryophyte richness, their effects were moderated by winter temperature. Abundance, in contrast, was mostly related to forest structure. Biogeographic region was not significantly related to richness. Interestingly, forest richness was the best predictor of trunk richness. Our results highlight the importance of seasonal distribution of rainfall and temperatures and support that the richness of bryophyte communities is constrained by mesoscale climatic factors, in particular the interplay between water and energy availability. In contrast, abundance seems to be controlled by habitat characteristics. We also detected a strong top‐down structure between both scales of measurement evidencing a scaling down of the climatic effect: richness at the sample scale is controlled mainly by local richness and local richness is in turn controlled by climate, so mesoscale climatic gradients are indirectly limiting richness at the smallest scale.     

Quantifying the importance of multi‐scale management and environmental variables on moorland bird abundance

UK moorlands are semi‐natural habitats managed for a mix of livestock, game shooting and forestry, among other activities. An assessment of the importance of characteristics that correlate with moorland bird populations of high conservation importance can inform appropriate management at appropriate locations. We use hierarchical partitioning to assess the absolute and relative importance of climate, topography, soil, landscape management (wider scale habitat configuration of forestry and agriculture) and site‐based management (indices of predator control, and vegetation characteristics) in determining the abundance of a suite of upland birds in four regions of the UK. Unmeasured region‐specific effects often made the largest contribution to models. Physical characteristics (climate, topography, soil) were important and on average explained a similar amount of variation to site‐based management. However, there was considerable interspecific variation in the importance of both. Landscape‐scale variables were generally of low importance. An index of predator control was positively correlated with the abundance of Red Grouse Lagopus lagopus scotica and two waders. Vegetation characteristics (composition and structure) were, together, strong correlates of the abundance of passerine species. Vegetation characteristics were as important as indices of predator control for waders and grouse. The importance of regional effects, physical characteristics and variables relating to management suggest targeting site‐based management (such as predator control or vegetation management) to the areas where physical characteristics are most favourable. The most beneficial management will vary between species, necessitating a mosaic of management options across upland areas to benefit all species.     

Observed forest sensitivity to climate implies large changes in 21st century North American forest growth

Predicting long‐term trends in forest growth requires accurate characterisation of how the relationship between forest productivity and climatic stress varies across climatic regimes. Using a network of over two million tree‐ring observations spanning North America and a space‐for‐time substitution methodology, we forecast climate impacts on future forest growth. We explored differing scenarios of increased water‐use efficiency (WUE) due to CO₂‐fertilisation, which we simulated as increased effective precipitation. In our forecasts: (1) climate change negatively impacted forest growth rates in the interior west and positively impacted forest growth along the western, southeastern and northeastern coasts; (2) shifting climate sensitivities offset positive effects of warming on high‐latitude forests, leaving no evidence for continued ‘boreal greening’; and (3) it took a 72% WUE enhancement to compensate for continentally averaged growth declines under RCP 8.5. Our results highlight the importance of locally adapted forest management strategies to handle regional differences in growth responses to climate change.     

Interactions with successional stage and nutrient status determines the life‐form‐specific effects of increased soil temperature on boreal forest floor vegetation

The boreal forest is one of the largest terrestrial biomes and plays a key role for the global carbon balance and climate. The forest floor vegetation has a strong influence on the carbon and nitrogen cycles of the forests and is sensitive to changes in temperature conditions and nutrient availability. Additionally, the effects of climate warming on forest floor vegetation have been suggested to be moderated by the tree layer. Data on the effects of soil warming on forest floor vegetation from the boreal forest are, however, very scarce. We studied the effects on the forest floor vegetation in a long‐term (18 years) soil warming and fertilization experiment in a Norway spruce stand in northern Sweden. During the first 9 years, warming favored early successional species such as grasses and forbs at the expense of dwarf shrubs and bryophytes in unfertilized stands, while the effects were smaller after fertilization. Hence, warming led to significant changes in species composition and an increase in species richness in the open canopy nutrient limited forest. After another 9 years of warming and increasing tree canopy closure, most of the initial effects had ceased, indicating an interaction between forest succession and warming. The only remaining effect of warming was on the abundance of bryophytes, which contrary to the initial phase was strongly favored by warming. We propose that the suggested moderating effects of the tree layer are specific to plant life‐form and conclude that the successional phase of the forest may have a considerable impact on the effects of climate change on forest floor vegetation and its feedback effects on the carbon and nitrogen cycles, and thus on the climate.     

The effect of past changes in inter‐annual temperature variability on tree distribution limits

Aim The northern limits of temperate broadleaved species in Fennoscanndia are controlled by their requirements for summer warmth for successful regeneration and growth as well as by the detrimental effects of winter cold on plant tissue. However, occurrences of meteorological conditions with detrimental effects on individual species are rare events rather than a reflection of average conditions. We explore the effect of changes in inter‐annual temperature variability on the abundances of the tree species Tilia cordata, Quercus robur and Ulmus glabra near their distribution limits using a process‐based model of ecosystem dynamics. Location A site in central Sweden and a site in southern Finland were used as examples for the ecotone between boreal and temperate forests in Fennoscandia. The Finnish site was selected because of the availability of varve‐thickness data. Methods The dynamic vegetation model LPJ‐GUESS was run with four scenarios of inter‐annual temperature forcing for the last 10,000 years. In one scenario the variability in the thickness of summer and winter varves from the annually laminated lake in Finland was used as a proxy for past inter‐annual temperature variability. Two scenarios were devised to explore systematically the effect of stepwise changes in the variance and shape parameter of a probability distribution. All variability scenarios were run both with and without the long‐term trend in Holocene temperature change predicted by an atmospheric general circulation model. Results Directional changes in inter‐annual temperature variability have significant effects on simulated tree distribution limits through time. Variations in inter‐annual temperature variability alone are shown to alter vegetation composition by magnitudes similar to the magnitude of changes driven by variation in mean temperatures. Main conclusions The varve data indicate that inter‐annual climate variability has changed in the past. The model results show that past changes in species abundance can be explained by changes in the inter‐annual variability of climate parameters as well as by mean climate. Because inter‐annual climatic variability is predicted to change in the future, this component of climate change should be taken into account both when making projections of future plant distributions and when interpreting vegetation history.     

Remote sensing‐based landscape indicators for the evaluation of threatened‐bird habitats in a tropical forest

Avian species persistence in a forest patch is strongly related to the degree of isolation and size of a forest patch and the vegetation structure within a patch and its matrix are important predictors of bird habitat suitability. A combination of space‐borne optical (Landsat), ALOS‐PALSAR (radar), and airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data was used for assessing variation in forest structure across forest patches that had undergone different levels of forest degradation in a logged forest—agricultural landscape in Southern Laos. The efficacy of different remote sensing (RS) data sources in distinguishing forest patches that had different seizes, configurations, and vegetation structure was examined. These data were found to be sensitive to the varying levels of degradation of the different patch categories. Additionally, the role of local scale forest structure variables (characterized using the different RS data and patch area) and landscape variables (characterized by distance from different forest patches) in influencing habitat preferences of International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red listed birds found in the study area was examined. A machine learning algorithm, MaxEnt, was used in conjunction with these data and field collected geographical locations of the avian species to identify the factors influencing habitat preference of the different bird species and their suitable habitats. Results show that distance from different forest patches played a more important role in influencing habitat suitability for the different avian species than local scale factors related to vegetation structure and health. In addition to distance from forest patches, LiDAR‐derived forest structure and Landsat‐derived spectral variables were important determinants of avian habitat preference. The models derived using MaxEnt were used to create an overall habitat suitability map (HSM) which mapped the most suitable habitat patches for sustaining all the avian species. This work also provides insight that retention of forest patches, including degraded and isolated forest patches in addition to large contiguous forest patches, can facilitate bird species retention within tropical agricultural landscapes. It also demonstrates the effective use of RS data in distinguishing between forests that have undergone varying levels of degradation and identifying the habitat preferences of different bird species. Practical conservation management planning endeavors can use such data for both landscape scale monitoring and habitat mapping.     

Species interactions and climate change: How the disruption of species co‐occurrence will impact on an avian forest guild

Interspecific interactions are crucial in determining species occurrence and community assembly. Understanding these interactions is thus essential for correctly predicting species' responses to climate change. We focussed on an avian forest guild of four hole‐nesting species with differing sensitivities to climate that show a range of well‐understood reciprocal interactions, including facilitation, competition and predation. We modelled the potential distributions of black woodpecker and boreal, tawny and Ural owl, and tested whether the spatial patterns of the more widespread species (excluding Ural owl) were shaped by interspecific interactions. We then modelled the potential future distributions of all four species, evaluating how the predicted changes will alter the overlap between the species' ranges, and hence the spatial outcomes of interactions. Forest cover/type and climate were important determinants of habitat suitability for all species. Field data analysed with N‐mixture models revealed effects of interspecific interactions on current species abundance, especially in boreal owl (positive effects of black woodpecker, negative effects of tawny owl). Climate change will impact the assemblage both at species and guild levels, as the potential area of range overlap, relevant for species interactions, will change in both proportion and extent in the future. Boreal owl, the most climate‐sensitive species in the guild, will retreat, and the range overlap with its main predator, tawny owl, will increase in the remaining suitable area: climate change will thus impact on boreal owl both directly and indirectly. Climate change will cause the geographical alteration or disruption of species interaction networks, with different consequences for the species belonging to the guild and a likely spatial increase of competition and/or intraguild predation. Our work shows significant interactions and important potential changes in the overlap of areas suitable for the interacting species, which reinforce the importance of including relevant biotic interactions in predictive climate change models for increasing forecast accuracy.     

Tree line identification from pollen data: beyond the limit?

Aim The boreal tree line is a prominent biogeographic feature, the position of which reflects climatic conditions. Pollen is the key sensor used to reconstruct past tree line patterns. Our aims in this study were to investigate pollen–vegetation relationships at the boreal tree line and to assess the success of a modified version of the biomization method that incorporates pollen productivity and dispersal in distinguishing the tree line. Location Northern Canada (307 sites) and Alaska (316 sites). Methods The REVEALS method for estimating regional vegetation composition from pollen data was simplified to provide correction factors to account for differential production and dispersal of pollen among taxa. The REVEALS‐based correction factors were used to adapt the biomization method and applied as a set of experiments to pollen data from lake sediments and moss polsters from the boreal tree line. Proportions of forest and tundra predicted from modern pollen samples along two longitudinal transects were compared with those derived from a vegetation map by: (1) a tally of ‘correct’ versus ‘incorrect’ assignments using vegetation in the relevant map pixels, and (2) a comparison of the shape and position of north–south forest‐cover curves generated from all transect pixels and from pollen data. Possible causes of bias in the misclassifications were assessed. Results Correcting for pollen productivity alone gave fewest misclassifications and the closest estimate of the modern mapped tree line position (Canada, + 300 km; Alaska, + 10 km). In Canada success rates were c. 40–70% and all experiments over‐predicted forest cover. Most corrections improved results over uncorrected biomization; using only lakes improved success rates to c. 80%. In Alaska success rates were 70–80% and classification errors were more evenly distributed; there was little improvement over uncorrected biomization. Main conclusions Corrected biomization should improve broad‐scale reconstructions of spatial patterns in forest/non‐forest vegetation mosaics and across climate‐sensitive ecotones. The Canadian example shows this is particularly the case in regions affected by taxa with extremely high pollen productivity (such as Pinus). Improved representation of actual vegetation distribution is most likely if pollen data from lake sediments are used because the REVEALS algorithm is based on the pollen dynamics of lake‐based systems.     

Coincident scales of forest feedback on climate and conservation in a diversity hot spot

The dynamic relationship between vegetation and climate is now widely acknowledged. Climate influences the distribution of vegetation; and through a number of feedback mechanisms vegetation affects climate. This implies that land-use changes such as deforestation will have climatic consequences. However, the spatial scales at which such feedbacks occur remain largely unknown. Here, we use a large database of precipitation and tree cover records for an area of the biodiversity-rich Atlantic forest region in south eastern Brazil to investigate the forest-rainfall feedback at a range of spatial scales from ca 10(1)-10(4) km2. We show that the strength of the feedback increases up to scales of at least 10(3) km2, with the climate at a particular locality influenced by the pattern of landcover extending over a large area. Thus, smaller forest fragments, even if well protected, may suffer degradation due to the climate responding to land-use change in the surrounding area. Atlantic forest vertebrate taxa also require large areas of forest to support viable populations. Areas of forest of ca 10(3) km2 would be large enough to support such populations at the same time as minimizing the risk of climatic feedbacks resulting from deforestation.     

Climatic thresholds shape northern high‐latitude fire regimes and imply vulnerability to future climate change

Boreal forests and arctic tundra cover 33% of global land area and store an estimated 50% of total soil carbon. Because wildfire is a key driver of terrestrial carbon cycling, increasing fire activity in these ecosystems would likely have global implications. To anticipate potential spatiotemporal variability in fire‐regime shifts, we modeled the spatially explicit 30‐yr probability of fire occurrence as a function of climate and landscape features (i.e. vegetation and topography) across Alaska. Boosted regression tree (BRT) models captured the spatial distribution of fire across boreal forest and tundra ecoregions (AUC from 0.63–0.78 and Pearson correlations between predicted and observed data from 0.54–0.71), highlighting summer temperature and annual moisture availability as the most influential controls of historical fire regimes. Modeled fire–climate relationships revealed distinct thresholds to fire occurrence, with a nonlinear increase in the probability of fire above an average July temperature of 13.4°C and below an annual moisture availability (i.e. P‐PET) of approximately 150 mm. To anticipate potential fire‐regime responses to 21st‐century climate change, we informed our BRTs with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections under the RCP 6.0 scenario. Based on these projected climatic changes alone (i.e. not accounting for potential changes in vegetation), our results suggest an increasing probability of wildfire in Alaskan boreal forest and tundra ecosystems, but of varying magnitude across space and throughout the 21st century. Regions with historically low flammability, including tundra and the forest–tundra boundary, are particularly vulnerable to climatically induced changes in fire activity, with up to a fourfold increase in the 30‐yr probability of fire occurrence by 2100. Our results underscore the climatic potential for novel fire regimes to develop in these ecosystems, relative to the past 6000–35 000 yr, and spatial variability in the vulnerability of wildfire regimes and associated ecological processes to 21st‐century climate change.