Uncertainty in Measurement: A Review of Monte Carlo Simulation Using Microsoft Excel for the Calculation of Uncertainties Through Functional Relationships,Including Uncertainties in Empirically Derived Constants

The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (usually referred to as the GUM) provides the basic framework for evaluating uncertainty in measurement. The GUM however does not always provide clearly identifiable procedures suitable for medical laboratory applications, particularly when internal quality control (IQC) is used to derive most of the uncertainty estimates. The GUM modelling approach requires advanced mathematical skills for many of its procedures, but Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) can be used as an alternative for many medical laboratory applications. In particular, calculations for determining how uncertainties in the input quantities to a functional relationship propagate through to the output can be accomplished using a readily available spreadsheet such as Microsoft Excel.The MCS procedure uses algorithmically generated pseudo-random numbers which are then forced to follow a prescribed probability distribution. When IQC data provide the uncertainty estimates the normal (Gaussian) distribution is generally considered appropriate, but MCS is by no means restricted to this particular case. With input variations simulated by random numbers, the functional relationship then provides the corresponding variations in the output in a manner which also provides its probability distribution. The MCS procedure thus provides output uncertainty estimates without the need for the differential equations associated with GUM modelling.The aim of this article is to demonstrate the ease with which Microsoft Excel (or a similar spreadsheet) can be used to provide an uncertainty estimate for measurands derived through a functional relationship. In addition, we also consider the relatively common situation where an empirically derived formula includes one or more ‘constants’, each of which has an empirically derived numerical value. Such empirically derived ‘constants’ must also have associated uncertainties which propagate through the functional relationship and contribute to the combined standard uncertainty of the measurand.     

Social Relationships and Mortality Risk: A Meta-analytic Review

Background

The quality and quantity of individuals'' social relationships has been linked not only to mental health but also to both morbidity and mortality.

Objectives

This meta-analytic review was conducted to determine the extent to which social relationships influence risk for mortality, which aspects of social relationships are most highly predictive, and which factors may moderate the risk.

Data Extraction

Data were extracted on several participant characteristics, including cause of mortality, initial health status, and pre-existing health conditions, as well as on study characteristics, including length of follow-up and type of assessment of social relationships.

Results

Across 148 studies (308,849 participants), the random effects weighted average effect size was OR = 1.50 (95% CI 1.42 to 1.59), indicating a 50% increased likelihood of survival for participants with stronger social relationships. This finding remained consistent across age, sex, initial health status, cause of death, and follow-up period. Significant differences were found across the type of social measurement evaluated (p<0.001); the association was strongest for complex measures of social integration (OR = 1.91; 95% CI 1.63 to 2.23) and lowest for binary indicators of residential status (living alone versus with others) (OR = 1.19; 95% CI 0.99 to 1.44).

Conclusions

The influence of social relationships on risk for mortality is comparable with well-established risk factors for mortality. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Functional Proteomics: A Promising Approach to Find Novel Components of the Circadian System

In the postgenome era, the analysis of entire subproteomes in correlation with their function has emerged due to high throughput technologies. Early approaches have been initiated to identify novel components of the circadian system. For example, in the marine dinoflagellate Lingulodinium polyedra, a chronobiological proteome assay was performed, which resulted in the identification of already known circadian expressed proteins as well as novel temporal controlled proteins involved in metabolic pathways. In the green alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, two circadian expressed proteins (a protein disulfide isomerase and a tetratricopeptide repeat protein) were identified by functional proteomics. Also, the first hints of temporal control within chloroplast proteins of Arabidopsis thaliana were identified by proteome analysis.     

Construction of Estimation Regions for the Parameters of Explicit Functional Relationships

Assuming that some explicit functional relationship acts as a mathematical model we consider the case that we are given a finite set of hypercuboids, each of which contains at least one point of the true functional relationship with a certain given probability. We present a procedure to construct sets for the unknown parameters and probabilities for the event that those contain the true parameter value. The procedure is illustrated by an example from pharmaceutical technology.     

Some Results for the Normal Manova Linear Functional Relationships Model

Given the normal multivariate linear regression model Y = BX + E, with B subjected to the linear restrictions H BJ = W A, J known, W and H unknown, A known, the maximum likelihood estimates of H, B, W, are obtained. A likelihood ratio test criterion for testing H = H₀, W = W₀ is provided. The results are extended to the GMANOVA model. All results are obtained in terms of the original variates directly, unlike Healy (1980) who obtains the results for the MANOVA model in terms of the canonical transformations of the original variates.     

Evolutionary Analysis of Phycobiliproteins: Implications for Their Structural and Functional Relationships

Phycobiliproteins, together with linker polypeptides and various chromophores, are basic building blocks of phycobilisomes, a supramolecular complex with a light-harvesting function in cyanobacteria and red algae. Previous studies suggest that the different types of phycobiliproteins and the linker polypeptides originated from the same ancestor. Here we retrieve the phycobilisome-related genes from the well-annotated and even unfinished cyanobacteria genomes and find that many sites with elevated d _N /d _S ratios in different phycobiliprotein lineages are located in the chromophore-binding domain and the helical hairpin domains (X and Y). Covariation analyses also reveal that these sites are significantly correlated, showing strong evidence of the functional-structural importance of interactions among these residues. The potential selective pressure driving the diversification of phycobiliproteins may be related to the phycobiliprotein-chromophore microenvironment formation and the subunits interaction. Sites and genes identified here would provide targets for further research on the structural-functional role of these residues and energy transfer through the chromophores. [Reviewing Editor: Dr. Rasmus Nielsen]     

Nutritional Modulation of Somatotropic Axis-cytokine Relationships in Cattle: A Brief Review

The objective of this review is to summarize data on the interrelationships that exist between nutrition, the endocrine system and their modulation of plasma tumor necrosis factor-α responses to endotoxin in cattle. During stress, intake of nutrients often is compromised and a percentage of available nutrients are diverted away from growth processes to stabilize other physiological processes of a higher survival priority. Management practices that minimize the magnitude and duration of disease stress will aid in speeding the return to homeostatic equilibrium. However, the shift away from growth during stress is almost inevitable as a mechanism to survive. Some degree of control and management of the metabolic cost of disease stress involves understanding the integration of nutritional, endocrine and immune signals by cells and working with the natural homeostatic processes. Endocrine hormones and immune system cytokine signals participate in redirecting nutrient use during disease stress. In an intricate interplay, hormones and cytokines regulate, modify and modulate each other's production and tissue interactions to alter metabolic priorities. Levels of dietary protein and energy intake affect patterns of hormones and cytokines in the blood after endotoxin challenge and further modulate the biological actions of many of these regulatory effectors. In vivo, administration of growth hormone to young calves has significant effects to decrease the many specific physiological responses to endotoxemia. Many aspects of nutrition can attenuate or facilitate this effect.     

Sleep-Inducing Properties of DSIP Analogs: Structural and Functional Relationships

The sleep-inducing activity of Delta Sleep-Inducing Peptide (DSIP) and its 13 synthetic analogs has been studied on rabbits with preliminary implanted electrodes. The peptides were injected into the lateral ventricle of cerebrum. Polygraphic computer monitoring of sleep–wake states was carried out at daytime for 7–12 h. DSIP and most analogs had no statistically significant effect on sleep compared to the control administration of saline to the same animals. [NMeAla²]DSIP and [Pro²]DSIP had a pronounced sleep-inducing effect and reliably increased the proportion of slow-wave sleep by 10–15% on average compared to the control. Several other analogs had a week sleep-inducing effect, increasing the proportion of slow-wave sleep during specific recording time only. [-Ala²]DSIP significantly suppressed sleep. In addition, this analog, as well as parent DSIP and four proline-containing nonapeptides, slightly increased the body temperature. The revealed differences may be due to both conformation properties and proteolytic resistance of the studied molecules, and it may reflect their indirect involvement in the control sleep–wake hormonal processes.     

Phylogenetic Relationships Among Treeshrews (Scandentia): A Review and Critique of the Morphological Evidence

Although the supraordinal relationships of Scandentia (treeshrews) have been studied in great detail from both morphological and molecular perspectives, the phylogenetic relationships among treeshrews have been largely ignored. Here we review several published studies of qualitative morphological variation among living treeshrews and their contribution to our understanding of intraordinal phylogenetic relationships. Reanalysis of the data from each of these studies demonstrates that none of the trees in the original publications represents the most parsimonious interpretation. In addition to performing new analyses, we argue that all such studies to date suffer from one or more fundamental shortcomings, notably the failure to include reference to nonscandentian outgroups and the a priori assumption of generic monophyly of the relatively speciose genus Tupaia. Parsimony analyses of these data sets fail to resolve either intergeneric or interspecific relationships. Finally, several inconsistencies and conflicts with respect to character coding both within and between published studies are discussed. We conclude that a more rigorous investigation of morphological character state variation is sorely needed, one that explicitly identifies voucher specimens and does not make any assumptions of generic monophyly. This is necessary not only for the purpose of resolving phylogenetic relationships, but also for inference of ancestral states in a group that continues to figure prominently in studies of placental mammal diversification.     

A Review of Methods for Non-Invasive Heart Rate Measurement on Wrist

When evaluating general health condition on a patient, heart rate is an essential indicator as it is directly representative of the cardiac system state. Continuous measurement methods of heart rate are required for ambulatory monitoring involved in preliminary diagnostic indicators of cardiac diseases or stroke. The growing number of recent developments in wearable devices is reflective of the increasing demand in wrist-worn activity trackers for fitness and health applications. Indeed, the wrist represents a convenient location in terms of form factor and acceptability for patients. While most commercially-available devices are based on optical methods for heart rate measurement, others methods were also developed, based on various physiological phenomena. This review is focused on heart rate measurement methods located on forearm and more specifically on the wrist. For each method, the physiological mechanism involved is described, and the associated transducers for bio-signal acquisition as well as practical developments and prototypes are presented. Methods are discussed on their advantages, limitations and their suitability for an ambulatory use. More specifically, the superposition of motion artefacts over the signal of interest is one of the largest drawbacks for these methods, when used out of laboratory conditions. As such, artefact reduction techniques proposed in the literature are also presented and discussed.     

A Functional Insulator Screen Identifies NURF and dREAM Components to Be Required for Enhancer-Blocking

Chromatin insulators of higher eukaryotes functionally divide the genome into active and inactive domains. Furthermore, insulators regulate enhancer/promoter communication, which is evident from the Drosophila bithorax locus in which a multitude of regulatory elements control segment specific gene activity. Centrosomal protein 190 (CP190) is targeted to insulators by CTCF or other insulator DNA-binding factors. Chromatin analyses revealed that insulators are characterized by open and nucleosome depleted regions. Here, we wanted to identify chromatin modification and remodelling factors required for an enhancer blocking function. We used the well-studied Fab-8 insulator of the bithorax locus to apply a genome-wide RNAi screen for factors that contribute to the enhancer blocking function of CTCF and CP190. Among 78 genes required for optimal Fab-8 mediated enhancer blocking, all four components of the NURF complex as well as several subunits of the dREAM complex were most evident. Mass spectrometric analyses of CTCF or CP190 bound proteins as well as immune precipitation confirmed NURF and dREAM binding. Both co-localise with most CP190 binding sites in the genome and chromatin immune precipitation showed that CP190 recruits NURF and dREAM. Nucleosome occupancy and histone H3 binding analyses revealed that CP190 mediated NURF binding results in nucleosomal depletion at CP190 binding sites. Thus, we conclude that CP190 binding to CTCF or to other DNA binding insulator factors mediates recruitment of NURF and dREAM. Furthermore, the enhancer blocking function of insulators is associated with nucleosomal depletion and requires NURF and dREAM.     

Pharmacological and Functional Characterization of Astrocytic GABA Transport: A Short Review

GABA neurotransmission is terminated by high affinity transport mediated by a number of carriers on neurons and astrocytes. So far four different carriers have been cloned and their cellular distribution has been partly worked out. It is generally believed that GAT-1 (mouse homologue GAT1) is the quantitatively most important of the transporters and it is primarily present on GABAergic neurons but also to some extent on astrocytes. The pharmacological properties of neuronal and astrocytic GABA uptake have been studied extensively and recently the GABA analogue N-methyl-Exo-THPO has been reported to act as a selective and potent (IC50 28 microM) astroglial GABA transport inhibitor with a 15-fold selectivity. It has moreover been reported to act as an anticonvulsant in animal models of epilepsy. This may underline the functional importance of astrocytic GABA uptake in relation to seizure activity.     

How Much Compensation is Enough? A Framework for Incorporating Uncertainty and Time Discounting When Calculating Offset Ratios for Impacted Habitat

Biodiversity offset areas may compensate for ecological damage caused by human activity elsewhere. One way of determining the offset ratio, or the compensation area needed, is to divide the present conservation value of the development site by the predicted future conservation value of a compensation area of the same size. Matching mean expected utility in this way is deficient because it ignores uncertainty and time lags in the growth of conservation value in compensation areas. Instead, we propose an uncertainty analytic framework for calculating what we call robustly fair offset ratios, which guarantee a high enough probability of the exchange producing at least as much conservation value in the offset areas than is lost from the development site. In particular, we analyze how the fair offset ratio is influenced by uncertainty in the effectiveness of restoration action, correlation between success of different compensation areas, and time discounting. We find that very high offset ratios may be needed to guarantee a robustly fair exchange, compared to simply matching mean expected utilities. These results demonstrate that considerations of uncertainty, correlated success/failure, and time discounting should be included in the determination of the offset ratio to avoid a significant risk that the exchange is unfavorable for conservation in the long run. This is essential because the immediate loss is certain, whereas future gain is uncertain. The proposed framework is also applicable to the case when offset areas already hold conservation value and do not require restoration action, in which case uncertainty about the conservation outcome will be lower.     

Functional and Evolutionary Relationships Among the RPCH-AKH Family of Peptides

SYNOPSIS. The RPCH-AKH peptide family is a group of structurallysimilar peptides which are apparently widely distributed inarthropods, and which serve a variety of functions in differentsettings. The first three recognized members of this familywere detected and purified based on endocrine activities includingcolor change in crustaceans (RPCH) and effects on energy metabolismin insects (AKH and Compound II). The most recently identifiedfamily members, MI and Mil, were found on the basis of neuromuscularactivity as well as endocrine effects, and a combination ofhistological and physiological evidence strongly suggests thatat least some of these peptides are localized in neurons includingmotor neurons which use them as transmitters. Thus this is oneof several neuropeptide families with highly conserved structures,but diverse endocrine and neural functions. The significanceof structural similarities between family members is unclear.Fortunately the arthropod preparations in which these peptideshave been identifiedlend themselves to detailed developmental,anatomical, and physiological analysis, so there is every reasonto suppose that molecular biological and physiological investigationscurrently inprogress will shed significant light on the meaningof the phenomenon of structurally conservative peptide families.     

Disability Measurement for Lymphatic Filariasis: A Review of Generic Tools Used within Morbidity Management Programs

Lymphatic filariasis (LF)-related disability affects 40 million people globally, making LF the leading cause of physical disability in the world. Despite this, there is limited research into how the impacts of LF-related disability are best measured. This article identifies the tools currently being used to measure LF-related disability and reviews their applicability against the known impacts of LF. The findings from the review show that the generic disability tools currently used by LF programs fail to measure the majority of known impacts of LF-related disability. The findings from the review support the development of an LF-specific disability measurement tool and raise doubt about the suitability of generic disability tools to assess disability related to neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) globally.