Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on grass pollen counts in Europe

Relationships between temporal variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and grass pollen counts at 13 sites in Europe, ranging from Córdoba in the south-west and Turku in the north-east, were studied in order to determine spatial differences in the amount of influence exerted by the NAO on the timing and magnitude of grass pollen seasons. There were a number of significant (P < 0.05) relationships between the NAO and start dates of the grass pollen season at the 13 pollen-monitoring sites. The strongest associations were generally recorded near to the Atlantic coast. Several significant correlations also existed between winter averages of the NAO and grass pollen season severity. Traditional methods for predicting the start or magnitude of grass pollen seasons have centred on the use of local meteorological observations, but this study has shown the importance of considering large-scale patterns of climate variability like the NAO.     

Factors that determine the severity of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Betula</Emphasis> spp. pollen seasons in Poland (Poznań and Krakow) and the United Kingdom (Worcester and London)

The aim of this paper is to analyse variations in the severity of Betula pollen seasons, particularly in relation to meteorological parameters at four sites, Poznań and Krakow in Poland, and Worcester and London in the United Kingdom. Results show that there is a significant relationship between Betula pollen season severity and weather conditions both in the year before pollination and in the same year that pollen is released from the plant. Furthermore, it is likely that the magnitude of birch pollen seasons in Poznań, Worcester and London is linked in some way to different phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Significant positive relationships exist between birch pollen counts at Poznań and temperatures, rainfall and averages of the NAO in the year before pollination. An opposite relationship is evident at the two sites studied in the United Kingdom. There were significant positive correlations between the severity of birch pollen seasons recorded at Worcester and temperatures and averages of the NAO during the winter and spring in the year of pollination, and negative correlations at both Worcester and London with similar variables from the previous year. In addition, Betula pollen seasons in Krakow do not appear to be influenced by the NAO, which is probably the result of Krakow having a more continental climate.     

The influence of climate on durum wheat quality in Tuscany,Central Italy

Climate and meteorological conditions greatly affect agricultural activities, modifying plant responses and determining the quantity and the quality of production. In this respect, the aim of this research was to analyze the quality of winter durum wheat (Triticum turgidum L. var. durum), in terms of protein content through the use of meteorological information. Meteorological conditions were described utilizing both local weather station data (air temperature, cumulated precipitation) and large-scale information available freely on the internet, such as geopotential height (GPH), sea surface temperature (SST), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The analysis was carried out for the period 1997–2009 in the Tuscany region, Central Italy. Grain protein was positively correlated with air temperature during the February to June period, and negatively with cumulative precipitation during the entire period from November to June. Protein content was also negatively correlated with 500 hPa GPH over Gibraltar and North-Western Africa during the March to June period and with the SST of the Atlantic Ocean south-west of the Canary Islands during the January to June period. Finally, with regard to the NAO, winter durum wheat quality was positively correlated with the specific index for several months, in particular during the winter period. These results demonstrate that precipitation and air temperature over the production area represent two crucial variables driving the vegeto-productive responses of winter durum wheat. On the other hand, the use of large-scale meteorological information showed great potential from the perspective of a local quality forecast system setup.     

Regime shifts in the breeding of an Atlantic puffin population

Timing of breeding is a key factor determining the reproductive success in bird populations and known to be affected by climate fluctuations. We investigated the long‐term (1978–2002) relationship between climate and hatching date within a population of Atlantic puffin Fratercula arctica at Røst in the Norwegian Sea. The timing of puffin breeding was found to be influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation winter index (NAO). We isolated two temporal regimes, one where NAO had a significant effect on hatching date (1978–1986 and 1995–2002) and one where these variables were independent (1987–1994). Hatching date could be modelled using, in addition to NAO, hatching date and food abundance in the preceding breeding season (possibly proxies of parental effort). The models remained significant for regime 1 but not for regime 2. NAO differed between the two regimes suggesting that the shifts were induced by climate change, possibly via its effect on the availability of prey in the preceding year. The novelty of our study is the identification of temporal regimes in the effects of climate within one population.     

Relation between climatic factors,diet and reproductive parameters of Little Terns over a decade

We used 10 years of data on clutch size, egg size and diet, and 8 years of data on timing of laying on Little Terns (Sternula albifrons) breeding in Ria Formosa lagoon system, Algarve, Portugal to assess whether diet acts as an important intermediary between climatic conditions and breeding parameters. We used Generalized Linear Models to relate (1) the relative occurrence and size of the main prey species, sand smelts (Atherina spp.), with environmental variables, a large-scale climate variable, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, and a local scale variable, the sea-surface temperature (SST), and (2) the respective effects of sand smelts relative occurrence, NAO index and SST on Little Tern breeding parameters. The diet of Little Terns was dominated by sand smelts, with a frequency occurrence of over 60% in all years. The winter SST (February) was negatively associated with the relative occurrence of sand smelts in the diet of Little Terns during the breeding season which, in turn, was positively associated with Little Tern clutch size. Our results suggest that negative NAO conditions in the Atlantic Ocean, often associated with rougher sea conditions (greater vertical mixing, stronger winds and lower SST) were related with earlier breeding, and lower SST in the surroundings of the colony during winter–spring favour the abundance of prey fish for Little Terns as well as their reproductive parameters. Climate patterns at both large and local scales are likely to change in the future, which may have important implications for estuarine seabirds in Southern Europe.     

The North Atlantic Oscillation synchronises fruit production in western European forests

Weather and its lagged effects have been associated with interannual variability and synchrony of fruit production for several tree species. Such relationships are used often in hypotheses relating interannual variability in fruit production with tree resources or favourable pollinating conditions and with synchrony in fruit production among sites through the Moran effect (the synchronisation of biological processes among populations driven by meteorological variability) or the local availability of pollen. Climatic teleconnections, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), representing weather packages, however, have rarely been correlated with fruit production, despite often being better predictors of ecological processes than is local weather. The aim of this study was to test the utility of seasonal NAO indices for predicting interannual variability and synchrony in fruit production using data from 76 forests of Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies, Pseudotsuga menziesii, Quercus petraea, and Q. robur distributed across central Europe. Interannual variability in fruit production for all species was significantly correlated with seasonal NAO indices, which were more prominently important predictors than local meteorological variables. The relationships identified by these analyses indicated that proximal causes were mostly responsible for the interannual variability in fruit production, supporting the premise that local tree resources and favourable pollinating conditions are needed to produce large fruit crops. Synchrony in fruit production between forests was mainly associated with weather and geographical distance among sites. Also, fruit production for a given year was less variable among sites during warm and dry springs (negative spring NAO phases). Our results identify the Moran effect as the most likely mechanism for synchronisation of fruit production at large geographical scales and the possibility that pollen availability plays a role in synchronising fruit production at local scales. Our results highlight the influence of the NAO on the patterns of fruit production across western Europe.     

Linkages between common wheat yields and climate in Morocco (1982–2008)

In Morocco, wheat production shows a high inter-annual variability due to uncertain rainfall. In view of the importance of this resource to the country’s economy, it is important to gain a better understanding of the natural large-scale climate oscillation governing this variability. In this study, we analyzed de-trended (1) time series of common wheat yields (1983–2008) from 11 agricultural provinces that account for 80 % of national wheat production; (2) monthly rainfall and 10-day temperature from ten meteorological stations; (3) 10-day normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from the AVHRR sensor; (4) monthly atmospheric climate indices [North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Scandinavian Pattern (SCA)] and monthly 500 hPa geopotentials fields; and (5) monthly sea surface temperature (SST) fields and indices (NIÑO3, Tropical North Atlantic and Tropical South Atlantic). The relationship between rainfall and temperature during tillering in early winter and grain filling in early spring and wheat yields already observed at the plot scale was also found to be significant at the provincial scale. The linkages between wheat yields and large scale climate have been analyzed for the first time over Morocco. In agreement with previous studies, results show a complex and competing influence of different climate phenomena. The NAO is found to be significantly related to yields during the early stage of wheat growth in December, whereas the SCA correlates with yields later in the season, in January and February. Interesting lagged correlations with higher lead time are also highlighted, with the leading modes of SST variability in the equatorial Atlantic during October (the “Atlantic Niño” mode) and in the North Atlantic (the “Atlantic tripole” mode) in February. Our conclusion is that regional climate indices and variables represent valuable information with which to increase lead time and skill regarding wheat yield predictions in Morocco.     

Common growth signal and spatial synchrony of the chronologies of tree-rings from pines in the Baltic Sea region over the last nine centuries

The common growth signal and spatial synchrony of nine chronologies of tree rings (Pinus sylvestris L.) from the Baltic Sea region were studied using moving correlations with time windows of 50 and 100 years. Drifts from synchrony to asynchrony and again back to synchrony across several centuries were observed. The chronologies showed higher (or lower) coefficients of correlations and correspondingly gentler (or steeper) declines in spatial synchrony in certain periods. In accordance with research into other ecological phenomena, the origin of the spatial synchrony was found to relate to the intensity of the westerly circulation over the Atlantic and Europe as described by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The tree rings from all of the analysed subregions were found to be wider, identifying faster periods of growth, when there was a positive NAO during the extended winter season from December to March that preceded the period of growth. Previous studies showed that the NAO index can be linked with the growth of tree rings because of factors in the local climate that affect growth, such as temperature and precipitation. Moreover, the spatial synchrony showed multidecadal fluctuations that were correlated with variations of a similar scale in the reconstructed NAO index. However, a high degree of spatial synchrony was observed during the 20^th century in the presence of values of NAO index that were strongly negative. A more detailed view was provided by maps of the correlations in which spatial changes were demonstrated in the growth of pines between the 12^th and the 20^th century. These results could be used as background information in the development of improved proxy-based reconstructions of the NAO index (or other similar meteorological variables), which could also be inferred from tree ring data relating to earlier centuries.     

Combined Effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation on Sea Surface Temperature in the Alborán Sea

We explored the possible effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) on interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the Alborán Sea, both separately and combined. The probability of observing mean annual SST values higher than average was related to NAO and AO values of the previous year. The effect of NAO on SST was negative, while that of AO was positive. The pure effects of NAO and AO on SST are obscuring each other, due to the positive correlation between them. When decomposing SST, NAO and AO in seasonal values, we found that variation in mean annual SST and mean winter SST was significantly related to the mean autumn NAO of the previous year, while mean summer SST was related to mean autumn AO of the previous year. The one year delay in the effect of the NAO and AO on the SST could be partially related to the amount of accumulated snow, as we found a significant correlation between the total snow in the North Alborán watershed for a year with the annual average SST of the subsequent year. A positive AO implies a colder atmosphere in the Polar Regions, which could favour occasional cold waves over the Iberian Peninsula which, when coupled with precipitations favoured by a negative NAO, may result in snow precipitation. This snow may be accumulated in the high peaks and melt down in spring-summer of the following year, which consequently increases the runoff of freshwater to the sea, which in turn causes a diminution of sea surface salinity and density, and blocks the local upwelling of colder water, resulting in a higher SST.     

Abiotic drivers of interannual phytoplankton variability and a 1999–2000 regime shift in the North Sea examined by multivariate statistics

The Dutch coastal zone is a region of the North Sea with a marked interannual and long‐term abiotic and phytoplankton variability. To investigate the relationship between abiotic variability and phytoplankton composition, two routine water monitoring data sets (1991–2005) were examined. Multivariate statistics revealed two significant partitions in the data. The first consisted of interannual abiotic fluctuations that were correlated to Rhine discharge that affected the abundance of summer and autumn diatom species. The second partition was caused by a shift in the abiotic data from 1998 to 1999 that was followed by a shift in phytoplankton composition from 1999 to 2000. Important factors in the abiotic shift were decreases in suspended matter (SPM) and phosphate (DIP) concentrations, as well as in pH. The decrease in SPM was caused by a reduction in wind speed. The increase in water column daily irradiance from the decrease in SPM led to increases in the abundance of winter–spring species, notably the prymnesiophyte Phaeocystis globosa. Because wind speed is related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index it was possible to correlate NAO index and P. globosa abundance. Only five abiotic variables representing interannual and long‐term variability, including Rhine discharge and NAO index, were needed to model the observed partitions in phytoplankton composition. It was concluded that interannual variability in the coastal phytoplankton composition was related to year‐to‐year changes in river discharge while the long‐term shift was caused by an alternating large‐scale meteorological phenomenon.     

Statistical modeling,forecasting and time series analysis of birch phenology in Montreal,Canada

The aim of this study was to analyse birch pollen time series observed in Montreal (Canada) in order to understand the link between inter-annual variability of phenology and environmental factors and to build predictive models for the upcoming pollen season. Modeling phenology is challenging, especially in Canada, where phenological observations are rare. Nevertheless, understanding phenology is required for scientific applications (e.g. inputs to numerical models of pollen dispersion) but also to help allergy sufferers to better prepare their medication and avoidance strategies before the start of the pollen season. We used multivariate statistical regression to analyse and predict phenology. The predictors were drawn from a large basin (over 60) of potential environmental predictors including meteorological data and global climatic indices such NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation index) and ENSO/MEI (Multivariate Enso Index). Results of this paper are summarized as follows: (1) an accurate forecast for the upcoming season starting date of the birch pollen season was obtained (showing low bias and total forecast error of about 4 days in Montreal), (2) NAO and ENSO/MEI indices were found to be well correlated (i.e. 44% of the variance explained) with birch phenology, (3) a long-term trend of 2.6 days per decade (p < 0.1) towards longer season duration was found for the length of the birch pollen season in Montreal. Finally, perturbations of the quasi-biennial cycle of birch were observed in the pollen data during the pollen season following the Great Ice Storm of 1998 which affected south-eastern Canada.     

Association between environmental factors, smolt size and the survival of wild and reared Atlantic salmon from the Simojoki River in the Baltic Sea

The survival of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar in the Baltic Sea was examined in relation to smolt traits (length and origin) and annual environmental factors [sea surface temperature (SST) and seasonal North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index], and prey fish abundance (herring Clupea harengus and sprat Sprattus sprattus) in the main basin and the southern Gulf of Bothnia. The study was based on recapture data for Carlin‐tagged hatchery‐reared and wild smolts from the Simojoki, a river flowing into the northern Gulf of Bothnia. The survival of the wild and reared groups was analysed using an ANOVA model and a stepwise regression model, with the arcsin‐transformed proportion of recaptured fish as the response variable. The results demonstrated a combined influence of smolt traits and environmental factors on survival. For the reared Atlantic salmon released in 1986–1998 (28 groups), the increasing annual mean SST in July in the southern Gulf of Bothnia and increasing mean smolt size improved survival. If the SST in July was excluded from the model, the NAO index in May to July also had a positive effect on survival (P < 0·10). The log₁₀‐transformed abundance of 0+ year herring in the southern Gulf of Bothnia entered the model (P < 0·15) if the SST and NAO index were excluded. For the wild Atlantic salmon released in 1972–1993 (21 groups), only the increasing SST in July showed a significant association with improved survival (P = 0·004). Prey fish abundance in the main basin of the Baltic Sea had no influence on the survival of reared or wild smolt groups. The interaction between smolt size and the SST in July was not significant. The origin was a better, but not a significant, predictor of marine survival compared to the smolt size or the SST in July. The mean recapture rate of the wild groups was twice that of the reared groups in the whole data. The results suggest that cold summers in the Gulf of Bothnia reduce the survival of young Atlantic salmon in both wild and reared groups. The larger smolt size of the reared groups compared with the wild groups to some extent compensated for their lower ability to live in the wild.     

Variations and trends of birch pollen seasons during 15 years (1996–2010) in relation to weather conditions in Poznań (western Poland)

Birch (Betula) pollen seasons were examined in relation to meteorological conditions in Poznań (1996–2010). Birch pollen grains were collected using a volumetric spore trap. An alternate biennial cycle of birch pollen season intensity was noticed in Poznań. The main factors influencing birch pollen season intensity were average daily minimum temperatures during the second fortnight of May and the month of June one year before pollination as well as the intensity of the pollen season of the previous year. Most of the pollen grains are recorded during the first week of the season; the number of pollen grains recorded at this time is positively correlated with mean maximum temperature and negatively correlated with daily rainfall. The significant effect of rainfall in reducing the season pollen index was noticed only during weak pollen seasons (season pollen index <?mean). In addition, mean daily maximum temperature during the first two weeks of the birch pollen season markedly influences its duration. No significant trends in duration and intensity of the pollen season were recorded, however, a slight tendency towards early pollination was observed (?0.4 days/year, p?=?0.310).     

Climate change and breeding parameters of great and blue tits throughout the western Palaearctic

Increasing evidence suggests that climate change has consequences on avian breeding phenology. Here, variations in laying date and clutch size of great tit Parus major and blue tit Parus caeruleus within and between breeding populations through the western Palaearctic are examined in relation to climatic fluctuations, measured by the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Within and across breeding sites, laying date was related to winter‐NAO index such that great and blue tit females lay earlier after warmer, moister winters (positive values of winter NAO‐index). The present study shows that for most populations there is an advancement of laying date, but the rate of change with respect to NAO significantly differed geographically across the western Palaearctic and did not differ between species. However, clutch size of great and blue tits was not affected by climatic fluctuations, presumably because the whole season is being shifted, but not in relation to food supplies. These combined analyses for the two species controlled for potentially confounding variables such as latitude, longitude, elevation and habitat of each study site.     

Climate warming decreases the survival of the little auk (Alle alle), a high Arctic avian predator

Delayed maturity, low fecundity, and high adult survival are traits typical for species with a long‐life expectancy. For such species, even a small change in adult survival can strongly affect the population dynamics and viability. We examined the effects of both regional and local climatic variability on adult survival of the little auk, a long‐lived and numerous Arctic seabird species. We conducted a mark‐resighting study for a period of 8 years (2006‐2013) simultaneously at three little auk breeding sites that are influenced by the West Spitsbergen Current, which is the main carrier of warm, Atlantic water into the Arctic. We found that the survival of adult little auks was negatively correlated with both the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and local summer sea surface temperature (SST), with a time lag of 2 and 1 year, respectively. The effects of NAO and SST were likely mediated through a change in food quality and/or availability: (1) reproduction, growth, and development of Arctic Calanus copepods, the main prey of little auks, are negatively influenced by a reduction in sea ice, reduced ice algal production, and an earlier but shorter lasting spring bloom, all of which result from an increased NAO; (2) a high sea surface temperature shortens the reproductive period of Arctic Calanus, decreasing the number of eggs produced. A synchronous variation in survival rates at the different colonies indicates that climatic forcing was similar throughout the study area. Our findings suggest that a predicted warmer climate in the Arctic will negatively affect the population dynamics of the little auk, a high Arctic avian predator.     

Meteorological forcing of plankton dynamics in a large and deep continental European lake

The timing of various plankton successional events in Lake Constance was tightly coupled to a large-scale meteorological phenomenon, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A causal chain of meteorological, hydrological, and ecological processes connected the NAO as well as winter and early spring meteorological conditions to planktonic events in summer leading to a remarkable memory of climatic effects lasting over almost half a year. The response of Daphnia to meteorological forcing was most probably a direct effect of altered water temperatures on daphnid growth and was not mediated by changes in phytoplankton concentrations. High spring water temperatures during ”high-NAO years” enabled high population growth rates, resulting in a high daphnid biomass as early as May. Hence, a critical Daphnia biomass to suppress phytoplankton was reached earlier in high-NAO years yielding an early and longer-lasting clear-water phase. Finally, an earlier summer decline of Daphnia produced in a negative relationship between Daphnia biomass in July and the NAO. Meteorological forcing of the seasonal plankton dynamics in Lake Constance included simple temporal shifts of processes and successional events, but also complex changes in the relative importance of different mechanisms. Since Daphnia plays an important role in plankton succession, a thorough understanding of the regulation of its population dynamics provides the key for predictions of the response of freshwater planktonic food webs to global climate change. Received: 15 February 1999 / Accepted: 23 August 1999     

Airborne pollen parameters and their relationship with meteorological variables in NE Iberian Peninsula

The present study explores the role of the meteorological variability in the pollen production and the timing of the airborne pollen season by analysis of the correlation between precipitation, insolation and temperature and the main standardised airborne pollen parameters of 22 taxa collected at 6 localities in Catalonia (NE Spain). The pollen parameters included in the study were: Annual Pollen Integral and the Start, End and Length of the Main Pollen Season. Considering that the Main Pollen Season of most of the taxa in Catalonia lasts from spring to summer or autumn, correlations between the pollen parameters and winter (from December to March) values of meteorological variables were calculated. Correlations between Monthly Pollen Integral and monthly values of the meteorological variables were also calculated. The results obtained report the synchronism registered in the variations of pollen concentration with precipitation (negative), insolation (positive) and temperature (positive). Temperature was the meteorological variable that showed a greater influence in the pollen production and the timing of the pollen season, being insolation the least one. The Start of the Main Pollen Season was the pollen parameter more correlated with the meteorological variables, especially with winter temperatures.     

A systematic review of the effects of temperature and precipitation on pollen concentrations and season timing,and implications for human health

Climate and weather directly impact plant phenology, affecting airborne pollen. The objective of this systematic review is to examine the impacts of meteorological variables on airborne pollen concentrations and pollen season timing. Using PRISMA methodology, we reviewed literature that assessed whether there was a relationship between local temperature and precipitation and measured airborne pollen. The search strategy included terms related to pollen, trends or measurements, and season timing. For inclusion, studies must have conducted a correlation analysis of at least 5 years of airborne pollen data to local meteorological data and report quantitative results. Data from peer-reviewed articles were extracted on the correlations between seven pollen indicators (main pollen season start date, end date, peak date, and length, annual pollen integral, average daily pollen concentration, and peak pollen concentration), and two meteorological variables (temperature and precipitation). Ninety-three articles were included in the analysis out of 9,679 articles screened. Overall, warmer temperatures correlated with earlier and longer pollen seasons and higher pollen concentrations. Precipitation had varying effects on pollen concentration and pollen season timing indicators. Increased precipitation may have a short-term effect causing low pollen concentrations potentially due to “wash out” effect. Long-term effects of precipitation varied for trees and weeds and had a positive correlation with grass pollen levels. With increases in temperature due to climate change, pollen seasons for some taxa in some regions may start earlier, last longer, and be more intense, which may be associated with adverse health impacts, as pollen exposure has well-known health effects in sensitized individuals.

     

A calendar for tree pollen in London

Data from a pollen monitoring network in Islington, North London, are used to construct tree pollen calendars for the tree seasons 1987 to 1989 inclusive. Annual variations in the pollen abundance and length of flowering season are investigated for individual species in relation to meteorological factors and the inherent biological rhythms of trees. Results indicate clear relationships between seasonal variations in pollen abundance and the weather, both in the prevailing season and also in the preceeding year during the time of pollen formation. Annual variations evident in the pollen records for Betula and Quercus support the theory of inherent biennial cycles for these species. Patterns for other trees do not show clear trends within the period sampled. Insufficient information is available to determine the concentration thresholds of allergic response for most tree pollens, but evidence from Finland is used to identify the timing and duration of periods which exceed the response thresholds for Betula.